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'Totally Ridiculous' Greece Should Default Big Or Go Home

Tyler Durden's picture





 

In what seems like the first honest words from a central banker in months (albeit an ex-central banker), Mario Blejer (who presided over the post-default Argentina in 2001) has some first-rate advice for G-Pap and his fellow Greeks. From an interview in Buenos Aires, Bloomberg notes the following notable quotes:

Greece should default, and default big, you can’t jump over a chasm in two steps.”

 

"Rescue programs backed by the International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank are “recession creating” efforts that will leave Greece saddled with more debt relative to the size of its economy in coming years and stifle growth"

 

“It’s totally ridiculous what is going on,” Blejer, 63, said. “If you assume that these countries do everything that is in the program, they do all these adjustments and privatizations, at the end of 2012 debt-to-GDP will be bigger than this year.”

 

It seems that once you retire and are free of the shackles of self-aggrandizement, the truth can flow freely and while he does not advocate Greece leaving the Euro-zone, his view is very clear.

Germany and France will have to bear the brunt of financing efforts to help Greece and other countries that default re-start their economies - "someone will have to pay, but if they are not willing to pay for the Euro they will have to get out of the Euro."

 

With longer-term GGBs already trading at EUR30, it seems the market views the world this way too. The GGB price term structure does not look so hot.

 

UPDATE: For some context on what occurred in Argentina - it seems long-dated GGBs are indeed priced for this and shorter-dated obviously priced for this plus some short-term carry:

When the default was declared in 2002, foreign investment fled the country, and capital flow towards Argentina ceased almost completely. The Argentine government met severe challenges trying to refinance the debt. The state had no spare money at the time, and the central bank's foreign currency reserves were almost depleted.

The Argentine government kept a firm stance, and finally got a deal in 2005 by which 76% of the defaulted bonds were exchanged by others, of a much lower nominal value (25–35% of the original) and at longer terms. In 2008, President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner announced she was studying a reopening of the 2005 swap to gain adhesion from the remaining 24% of the so-called "holdouts", and thereby fully exit the default with private investors.

 


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Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:21 | Link to Comment PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

Sell Santorini to US and Greece may get them self another few month of money flow.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:30 | Link to Comment spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

trichet is defaulting big with the printing press, bitchez

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 15:05 | Link to Comment mac768
mac768's picture

... at last someone who has an IDEA about how to solve a sov debt crisis

more than Trichet with his sermon about "inflation expectations have to be anchored"

it is just a mess

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:42 | Link to Comment agent default
agent default's picture

How? The US is also broke.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:49 | Link to Comment Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Broke, in denial and hitting the hopium pipe.

We're past broke.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:16 | Link to Comment He_Who Carried ...
He_Who Carried The Sun's picture

... and how would the US pay for the island? Shipments of peanuts?

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:41 | Link to Comment frippy
frippy's picture

I don't like your tits, can you get another pair?

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:51 | Link to Comment Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Agreed, the nipples are too dark.

With so many boobies online, you picked the nastiest pair.

Paging Pladizow!

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:59 | Link to Comment Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

They look like Hershey's kisses. Which is kind of cool.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 15:20 | Link to Comment NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

Nonsense.  Any are btter than none.  Who doesn't like tits?

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 15:43 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

McOuzo

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:21 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

They just simply REFUSE to let any bit of reality enter anything today...this ends in world war, theyre just delaying it a bit.

And Im sick of this constant world focus on Greece, which is less than any 1 STATES bankruptcy problems in the US!

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:29 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

REALITY IS ANYTHING YOU CAN GET AWAY WITH

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:53 | Link to Comment j0nx
j0nx's picture

Indeed. So true. As long as they and the MSM keep telling the country it's the truth then the country seems to be believing them. It works until it doesn't I suppose.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:59 | Link to Comment john39
john39's picture

newspeak bitchez...

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 15:45 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

so are ICBM's   (missiles for you post cold war kranks)

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:33 | Link to Comment BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

Greece is a scapegoat and when it defaults all problems will be blamed on it. It is relatively small in size, hence not TBTF.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:04 | Link to Comment Popo
Popo's picture

EXACTLY.  How is it possible that markets aren't shitting the bed *right now* after words like that.

The mere potential for a Greek default has been giving markets the jitters -- and now their leadership says "Greece should default BIG" and markets are magically not crapping themselves? 

 

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:20 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

rgentina is no poster boy or girl.  They have looted the populace for 60 years under Peronists. 

Hey Tyler can you stop running this "Travis Smiley Reports" "Too Important to Fail" on PBS about young black men failing in high school.  I don't need a black documentary director trying to give me more Obamesque White guilt.  Cut off welfare so these dropouts are not created in 3-D.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:22 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

yes, default big and let europe pick up the pieces and move forward with a manageable debtload!  eureka!

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:25 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Of course their problem is theyve so interconnected everything, 1 failure anywhere sends it all down like dominoes! They CANT have it both ways! 'Union' everything, but not so much union when theres a problem...either they are a union or theyre not!

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:31 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

Did you mean union or unicorn?

I think they tried to unicorn everything.

:)

pods

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:42 | Link to Comment Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Chaining all the lifeboats together in a storm seemed like a good idea, until some began to sink.

They know they can't fix this, otherwise they wouldn't be buying gold.  Everything being done is just stalling to buy more gold.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:31 | Link to Comment zapdude
zapdude's picture

Dude, your comments are always spot-on and wise (and several other posters / contributors too, like Sheep Dog One and Long John Silver). 

I will now subscribe to your posts, I'm a fan.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:42 | Link to Comment theotheri
theotheri's picture

I just fell off my chair laughing at your ridiculous gold comment! Good stuff!

No, no, gold is moving back down to <$1000/oz, it's true economic value. Gold is the ultimate bubble of course, bound to unwind quite soon, likely when the sovereign defaults commence.

Safety is not gold...in fact gold is the opposite. Safety is US treasuries, productive land and stable income producing assets.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 14:04 | Link to Comment Roger Knights
Roger Knights's picture

Do us a favor and short it, please!

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:49 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

The only entity with a "manageable debtload" of late is AAPL.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:23 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

When Argentina is calling you out you know it's close the end.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:26 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Near the end, but never actually the end, just sick of it. Sure we're bankrupt and maybe there will be a problem tomorrow, but not today my son....not today!

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:58 | Link to Comment UpAndComing
UpAndComing's picture

Speaking of Argentina...picked up that Modern Survival Manual a few days ago...interesting read. Worth the 20 beans.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:02 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Link please??, don't be coy(and selfish) because sharing is caring;)

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:14 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Thanks... pretty grim.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:25 | Link to Comment somethingisrotten
somethingisrotten's picture

“In this world of pretenders, of deception and deceit, have I
come to find the one man who knows the reality of what he is
and the truth of what he aspires to be."

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:38 | Link to Comment Debt-Penitent
Debt-Penitent's picture

A good quote but unless you are the origin, please quote in respect.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:42 | Link to Comment Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

Words and music by Buck Ram -- Platters/Freddie Mercury

Oh yes I'm the great pretender (ooh ooh)
Pretending I'm doing well (ooh ooh)
My need is such I pretend too much
I'm lonely but no one can tell

Oh yes I'm the great pretender (ooh ooh)
Adrift in a world of my own (ooh ooh)
I play the game but to my real shame
You've left me to dream all alone

Too real is this feeling of make believe
Too real when I feel what my heart can't conceal

Ooh Ooh yes I'm the great pretender (ooh ooh)
Just laughing and gay like a clown (ooh ooh)
I seem to be what I'm not (you see)
I'm wearing my heart like a crown
Pretending that you're still around

Yeah ooh hoo
Too real when I feel what my heart can't conceal

Oh yes I'm the great pretender
Just laughing and gay like a clown (ooh ooh)
I seem to be what I'm not you see
I'm wearing my heart like a crown
Pretending that you're
Pretending that you're still around

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 15:49 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

ricky bobby??????

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:25 | Link to Comment centerline
centerline's picture

Wait. I thought that debts don't matter. That the cure for debt problems is lots more debt. That in times of dropping private demand for debt it is governments responsibility to take on even greater debt. You know, grow or die.

/sarc

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:28 | Link to Comment wharfdaddy
wharfdaddy's picture

Paradise Beach on Mykynos ought to keep the Chinese happy for a few days..Sure kept me amused but then again I do enjoy anyplace in the world where only the pervs wear clothes.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:39 | Link to Comment Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

Cyprus must be shaking in it's collective boots right about now. Turkey military/economy on the rise; Greek on the death spiral. Old scores to settle. just add water...

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 14:10 | Link to Comment Jacks Cold Sweat
Jacks Cold Sweat's picture

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM ........Cyprus frankly doesnt give a rats ass about Erdogan's barkings because Israel will do the drilling with them, and Israel will nuke the shit out of Turkey if they hit the pedal to the metal . Erdogan is living Vivere pericolosamente 


Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:31 | Link to Comment Version 7
Version 7's picture

They keep missing the chance to enable Greece to default in an orderly manner, thereby making a chaotic default the only outcome possible. Ultimately, it's what's gonna happen.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:48 | Link to Comment Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

That applies equally well to the entire world system.  It cannot be fixed and is unsustainable.  When TPTB are threatened, they will just change the rules of money and announce it is fixed.  Until then, they are going to kick the can.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:33 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

Some Greek official should go on TV with Louk and tell the world to fuck off cause they ain't payin!

Say GS fudged their numbers without their knowledge to get into the EU and they can all go to hell.

Then things will get interesting.

pods

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:40 | Link to Comment Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

he our she would be dead before night fall.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 14:31 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Say GS fudged their numbers without their knowledge

Yeah, that would be really and totally believable.

The Greeks fucked themselves when they cheated. GS enabled them to do it.

Enron wasn't able to hide behind Arthur Andersen either.

Greek common people had no knowledge, their political class and banking elite did.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 17:12 | Link to Comment edotabin
edotabin's picture

When people are out for blood, logic is out the window.  They will not bother to analyze and it is easy to misdirect.

No Greek will ever admit that about 50% of the population slowly bled the country dry over a period of 30 years (with great help from crooked politicians in bed with bankers of course)

They are already trying to blame the problems on tax evasion in an effort to turn the people against each other.

 

Run Gpap, RUN!

 

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:42 | Link to Comment Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

From the mouth of Babes...err...ex-CentralBanking thief/thug....

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:43 | Link to Comment RealFinney
RealFinney's picture

Have they taken delivery yet of the fancy new military gear they were eyeing last year?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/03/23/us-eurozone-greece-warships-analysis-idUSTRE62M1Q520100323

Can't ruin the credit rating till you've got your new toys...

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:44 | Link to Comment espirit
espirit's picture

...ponzi. must. go on.  To it's dying breath, at least.

Rumor, rumor, news, rumor, news, rumor...rumor...rumor.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:45 | Link to Comment Maxwell Smart
Maxwell Smart's picture

Angela Merkel and Finnish prime minister met today. Here's the story with a  lovely Google translation:

Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen (cons), and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have discussed the Finnish security requirements generated controversy in Berlin. After the meeting with Merkel at the press conference, said that the front is very hard, and that he is convinced that a solution is found.

Merkel, Finland and Germany are in line with the debt crisis, and will continue to cooperate closely. In Germany, for the first time as prime minister visited Katainen was received with military honor ceremony.

Katainen told the Finnish reporters later that the securities become the main topic of discussion. Katainen gave, however, to understand that a security solution to the dispute can be found in even the next few days or a couple of weeks. - Begin to deal with the various parliaments of Greece, package, and then this issue must be clear.

Katainen did not specify what kind of solution would be valid for all member countries. - I do not it still can not explain it because it is quite difficult enough without it.

Minister of Jutta Urpilainen (soc dem), discussed the controversial securities a week ago the German and Dutch finance ministers. Berlin, the meeting did not provide for any concrete.

According to Greek sources, tomorrow, Wednesday, Greece's debt crisis will be discussed again. Geroge Papandreou, Greek Prime Minister to keep a phone meeting with Chancellor Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

AFP, according to a telephone conference later this week in Poland, paving the way for the EU finance ministers meeting.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:08 | Link to Comment Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

" I do not it still can not explain it because it is quite difficult enough without it."

I could not agree more!

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 00:28 | Link to Comment IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

I love Google Translates. It's absolutely hilarious. One page I asked to translate from Dutch, (about an engine), started off, "the green sausage cannot to revolve well in this soup bowl" And, I thought, oh I don't think this is going to work.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:46 | Link to Comment Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

Rabobank CEO: Greece goes bankrupt (google trans from Dutch)

Rabobank CEO Bert Bruggink: “ The question whether Greece goes bankrupt, is now over. The question is only when.”

 

Merkel: Greece may go bankrupt, but only in 2013 (google trans from German)

ORG: http://de.reuters.com/article/topNews/idDEBEE78C04Q20110913

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:52 | Link to Comment Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

This is truly idiotic coming from Merkel.

Once you say that you are going bankrupt, you go bankrupt.  Ask Lehman.  Once you tell your creditors that you are going bankrupt they all start banging on the door to get out before bankruptcy and they get nothing.

It is over.  Now.  Not 2013.  Over.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:04 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

20.13 is only hours away.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:58 | Link to Comment bankruptcylawyer
bankruptcylawyer's picture

there's nothing to say that they can't literrally throw a money bomb at the problem , particularly if china is willing to play ball for a year in order to secure its interests in europe, 200 billlion for greece and italy doesn't seem like such a big price to pay if you can get trade, sphere of influence, and IP concessions worth as much. 

 

but i agree about the analogy of creditors. i mean  , this is classic liquidity crisis stuff. however, if you are a nation with unlimited borrowing means, ( germany ) and you tell people a subsidiary is insolvent but that you will prop it up for an orderly unwind slowly over 18 months, 

some might just call that a prepackaged bankruptcy, and so ....the difference is that asset values are not sold in a fire sale in a prepack...a deal is worked out in advance so that the unwind is not too jarring. 

 

hard to say though. who knows.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 14:39 | Link to Comment unununium
unununium's picture

Ken Pruitt said on Bloomberg Radio this morning: "China has a lot of money, let's have them step up and buy Italian bonds!"

Lets "have them"... Priceless.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 00:31 | Link to Comment IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

But it's extremely German; "They vill go bankrupt vhen we say, Bankrupt! Und not vun minute before!"

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:57 | Link to Comment Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

What is it with 2013.

Are they waiting to see if the Mayans were right.

:)

 

 

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:03 | Link to Comment centerline
centerline's picture

Hoping the Mayans are right is what it seems.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:36 | Link to Comment Instant Wealth
Instant Wealth's picture

2013: Merkel re-election *muhawwhawwhaww*

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 14:17 | Link to Comment Pancho Villa
Pancho Villa's picture

So Merkel is willing to send hundreds of billions of Euros to Greece in order to delay bankruptcy by a year? I guess the German dream of European domination dies hard.

It kind of reminds me of Stalingrad. Hitler could have avoided a major defeat if he had only pulled his troops out in a timely fashon. Instead he left them there with vague plans to supply them by air which never really worked out.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:45 | Link to Comment snakeboat
snakeboat's picture

Can somebody get Blejer on CNBS?? Puuhhhleeeeze, pretty please!

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:47 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Amazing how many of these CB'ers "find clarity" after they leave office.  Talk about no moral courage...

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:57 | Link to Comment LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

Yaaaaaaaaaaawn. Still no Armageddon. Everything is calculated in now. Merry Christmas.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 12:59 | Link to Comment shazbotz
shazbotz's picture

Amerika needs to FIRE THE GOVERNMENT.... ALL OF IT and start over and smaller

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 15:00 | Link to Comment LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

Amerika needs to FIRE THE GOVERNMENT.... ALL OF IT and Not start over and smaller

Fixed it fer ya

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:00 | Link to Comment doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

Eddie Izzard: Cake or Death!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZVjKlBCvhg

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:03 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

nooo, keep the euros flowing to greece!!! good for my gold!!!!!!!! print print print!!!

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:07 | Link to Comment Dan Watie
Dan Watie's picture

One redeeming benefit from all this euro nonsense is knowing that Rockefeller's plan for globalisation is unraveling before his serpentine eyes!

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 14:45 | Link to Comment SMG
SMG's picture

I hope you're right.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 15:35 | Link to Comment Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Dan, I hope to hell you are right, but as you know you can not underestimate these demons.  We must watch closely.  They will use this crisis to attempt to create a "United States of Europe" with one demon central bank.

 

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 17:07 | Link to Comment Dan Watie
Dan Watie's picture

You're right Mr. Ramirez. But they can delay their day of reckoning only as long as we allow. And more people are awakening. That's what happens when you get hungry and you have no job. Poverty in the US is at levels not seen since 1983. And that's just government numbers. In reality we know it is much, much worse. Those 7,000 Ferraris sold so far this year better stay covered and hidden in McBanker's McMansion because they will be spit on and keyed and trashed in no time. Keep that rope handy,Tuco. ;-)

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:08 | Link to Comment markar
markar's picture

Please!!! Someone stick a fork in it already! so we can move on to more important BKs... Italy, Portugal, Spain, CA, IL, etc.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:19 | Link to Comment Curtis LeMay
Curtis LeMay's picture

The General Secretary of the Brussels Politburo, el Presdiente Barroso, just have Italy the kiss of death:

EU's Barroso:Italy Needs Rigorous Implementation Of Budget Plan

Italy must ensure that the implementation of its new budget plan is "rapid, effective and rigorous," European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said in a statement Tuesday following his meeting with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

WSJ

SEPTEMBER 13, 2011, 11:48 A.M. ET

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110913-709023.html

Every single time he used that exact same terminology - when Greece was imploding, Portugal and Ireland falling into the abyss, his words were simply confirmation that it's already far too late to save that country within the eurozone.

Ciao!

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:23 | Link to Comment Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

God almighty.

These clowns just don't know when to shut up.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 00:45 | Link to Comment IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

A bit of good old English reticence would be rather welcome; but as soon you cross the channel all you've got is Wogs; Bloody Wogs. Screeching and hand wringing in public, frightening the horses; disgraceful ! Simply disgraceful.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:48 | Link to Comment Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Same with the ponzimaster Olli Rehn. He knows only two things.

  1. more debt
  2. kiss of death

Every time he opens his mouth to lie more in public one or the other will become reality.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:22 | Link to Comment LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

Believe me: Greece will get all the promised money. No eurocountry can let the euro default, so all parliaments will agree with the July 21 package. By October 17, Greece would run out, but it will not happen. Even the ECB will jump in and print the needed funds. Monsieur Jean-Claude will not let the euro explode or even one member go bankrupt during his tenure. It's only a matter of time, the voting in the Bundestag takes place only at the end of September. The panic is because it takes so long. By October 1, it's all done and ok. So, sleep well and a merry Christmas. Jingle bells ...

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 14:01 | Link to Comment Pancho Villa
Pancho Villa's picture

Thanks for the update Mr. Venizelos.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 14:29 | Link to Comment LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

Even WHEN Greece defaults, Armageddon will not come. Instead, a massive run into German, Dutch and US bonds will come, as well as a run to cash and to a lesser extent gold and silver. No collapsing euro, on the contrary, that currency will strenghten. So, merry X-mas, this "war" will long be over by then. Sleep well.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 00:48 | Link to Comment IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

Jingle Bells? Whoa, I want some of what he's smoking.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:21 | Link to Comment Spigot
Spigot's picture

The delays in the inevitable are simply to allow the positioning of interests to take advantage of the inevitable (or at least to not be hurt by it). If you know what will come then you have the power to capitalize on its arrival (timing and etc).

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:35 | Link to Comment MS7
MS7's picture

G-Pap is not going to take anyone's advice. He's not on the side of Greece. He was born in the US, his mom is American, and he has no respect or understanding of Greek people. At the same time he is the ultimate government insider. His dad was PM as was his granddad, plus he has been in the government for decades. Yet, he pretends to represent change. He is working for the EU, either for neo-liberal ideological reasons or because he wants to please his buddies who are fellow prime ministers. Whatever the reason, the last thing he will do is something bold for the sake of Greece. He and his party are extremely unpopular in Greece. Unfortunately the people's rage is not properly channelled. There know what they don't want, but they don't know who will replace him. I wish they would act quickly before he irreversibly sinks the whole country (assuming that has not already happened).

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:39 | Link to Comment Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Fellas fellas, the incarnation of the Iraqi information minister in France is telling us it's all good.

Solid i tell You. And united!

France is in panic and it's only a matter of time when someone else than the cds market makes the same notion. And with that we can say goodbye to the monster CDO and, well, the eurozone.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 13:42 | Link to Comment HistorySquared
HistorySquared's picture

Surely Greece knows this, but they are still a net borrower. So their plan is to run up the credit lines as high as they will go then default, just like those hucksters looking to file for bankruptcy run up their credit cards first. 

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 14:17 | Link to Comment Jacks Cold Sweat
Jacks Cold Sweat's picture

I dont get all that hatin' you oppose against Greece. And i dont understand how you could possibly believe that Merkozy and their pals would let Greece default. We all know very well that you cant fuck an HIV positive whore beacause you get HIV as well and you die. 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_(game)

 

GErmany has a Mercedes Benz and Greece has a Yugo Zastava. Who do you think will pay more in rims , paintjob etc???

Dont hate the player,hate the game

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 14:20 | Link to Comment Nout Wellink
Nout Wellink's picture

Dutch ministry of Finance says: 'Greece will default'.

http://www.rtl.nl/components/financien/rtlz/nieuws/2011/37/Financien-gaat-uit-van-faillissement-Griekenland.xml

One phrase:

Als het faillissement niet op een beheerste manier gaat, kunnen andere zwakke eurolanden als Italië en Spanje ook in grote problemen komen. Als die landen niet overeind blijven, zou de euro als munt in gevaar komen.

Translated: If the default is going to be disorderly, other weak EU countries like Spain and Italy will be in big trouble as well. If they fall, the euro is in danger.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 14:47 | Link to Comment how to trade ar...
how to trade armageddon's picture

Sorry about the first messy post, here it is cleaned up, the Ransquawk feed on this topic:

14:09 ECONOMIC COMMENTARY Dutch finance ministry says not calling for an orderly default for Greece
14:08 ECONOMIC COMMENTARY Dutch finance ministry says Greek default is only a scenario
14:07 ECONOMIC COMMENTARY Dutch finance ministry dismisses report on Greek default
13:56 ECONOMIC COMMENTARY Dutch finance ministry says sees Greek default as unavoidable and urges orderly default

Oops, what did I say? Umm, I meant the opposite. At least until tomorrow.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 14:51 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Sounds like an invitation to a bunga-bunga session: "please do it if you have to but do it in orderly fashion." Oh, the lovely pleasures of defaulting in orderly fashion...very German that, not very latin. Passion bitches! 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 01:03 | Link to Comment IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

Well, that gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling all over. To me, no one could be more credible than a Dutch official. They're very serious and practical and many times, for centuries, have go the right answer and muddled thru when other European Countries were making complete asses of themselves. Speaking about the unspeakable; "Contagion is real, and to be expected, or planned for". Lovely. Just peachy.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 14:38 | Link to Comment LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

A Greek default would not lead to Armageddon, but to a massive relieve rally on the stock market and other financials. Finally, the uncertainty gone! Armageddon is crap.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 14:47 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

I propose you be nominated to take over the ECB when Lord Triché leaves in October. It would be so refreshing to hear "SO boring" at ECB press conferences. "Armageddon is crap" would then win you the Nobel peace; like for O'bammy!

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 14:51 | Link to Comment how to trade ar...
how to trade armageddon's picture

Stay long, baby, stay long! I mean just you, personally. This message doesn't apply to anybody who doesn't want to lose their money.

If Greece defaults, Greek banks indefinitely freeze deposits. The only relatively quick way to unfreeze them would be automatic conversion into hugely devalued drachmas. Imagine how Italians and Spaniards are going to react to that.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 15:05 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Spain and Italy are economically much more versatile and attractive than Greece.

Greece got the money because they're part of the EU and everyone expects the EU to carry Greece.

There's always money for countries like Spain and Italy, just depending on how the deals get structured. Depending on what Spain and Italy were to put on the table, an investor can be tapped.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 14:53 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

The default is being priced in as we speak. So lenders are taking a haircut. Their own fault for going all in on the olive oil crapshoot trade. Assets? What assets does Greece have that fucking matter anywhere? Maybe their debt can be packaged and traded but realistically, there just isn't anything of value in Greece. It once played an important strategic role but that was then.

Crapshoot either way. Extending the misery will only make it worse as markets are trying to figure this out and speculating as to when, not if.

Would it matter to America if say, Alabama defaulted on its debt? Probably not a whole lot. The money issue can be sorted out if done in an orderly fashion where nobody has access to anything or anybody for a year. No backroom deals and no favors either. The Greeks are broke and they ought to be able to go through the process of real changes to their bloated bureaucracy. Something meaner and leaner will emerge.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 01:06 | Link to Comment IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

Oh, go drownd yourself, will you please. Put yourself out of your misery. intended for "Amazing amazment" .

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 15:02 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I just had an odd thought. What if they are not going bankrupt because then all of the dishonesty that has been going on will come out in the open. Then people will get hurt.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 15:19 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Possibly. Avoiding what would surely follow the default, protests resulting possibly in full blown revolution.

Revolutionary thougt is a lot more contagious than a debt crisis. I'm sure I've heard this before iterated by minds, greater than mine.

 

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moxia19's picture

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moxia19's picture

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moxia19's picture

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Tue, 09/13/2011 - 21:33 | Link to Comment PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Not a Team Player this fellow, is he.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 00:02 | Link to Comment Adam Neira
Adam Neira's picture


There are a few options at the moment.

(a) Let the Greeks default. As I said more than a year ago, what they hve been doing is playing the system for all its worth. They really never have had any intention of paying back the debts. The wealthier countries do not need to create dependency in their neighbours. Every nation on Planet Earth at this time has its own economic advantages and disadvantages. The Greeks can go back to the drachma and rebuild their country from within. Hopefully their standard of living will be better than the Enver Hoxha Era Albanians.

 (b) They can amalgamate the debts into the European Union. The limit for this cause of action has almost been reached. The productive sectors of various economies must not be expected to carry the load permanently for the unproductive sectors however. The current EU GDP of approx. $16 Trillion can only really grow by about 3% p.a. over the coming years, so if too much debt is accumulated collapse will kick in. Basically every nation must live within its means.

 (c) More bail outs, prolonging the pain. 2 year bond yields of over 100% are simply not sustainable. They are proof that a solution must be found within the next two years. I think the timeline is much quicker than.

 (d) The super option that is only being spoken about in hushed tones is for a World Government and World Currency. The only way this could happen would be via consultation. An audit would need to carried out on all the assets and debts of various nations. Then some value would need to be placed on the conversion of these assets and debts to the world system. If an international system of credits and debts could be worked out then each person would receive some sort of quota. This would not be communism or pure capitalism. The current global GDP is $72 Trillion. At 5% growth this can increase to $459 Trillion by 2050. If this sounds excessive think the potential of Africa, South America and parts of Asia. The wealthier nations could help, and their economies would actually benefit from involvement in the growth of the other parts of the world. The devil really is in the detail but I'm sure they could be worked out. You never know people might just respond to an overarching global mission that they feel part of. Regulated capitalism in the service of humankind. The judicial, social, education and political systems would also need reform and would need to conform to the World Peace 2050 mission. For the prevailing philosophy think Johnny Mercer's "Accentuate the Positive, Eliminate the Negative, Hold onto the Affirmative, Don't Mess wth Mr.In Between" and Maimonides "Golden Mean".

Now the World Government would need a few organs.

CEO

Inner Circle

Auditors - National Advisors - International Agencies - Ambassadors - World Bank - Defence Force

Nation States (193)

There would have to be lots of meetings and again a multitude of details would need to be worked out. The people needed would be motivated by public service and would need to be intelligent, ethical, kind, fit and healthy. Bilingualism would help and English would be the main language. I know of a core group of ten economists I could draw together that I’m sure could nut out the way forward. To continue with the Greek theme, think Solon of Athens x 10.

For the cynics out there, here is an analogy.

Computer scientists seven years ago discovered that a Rubik's Cube no matter how diabolical its configuration can always be solved in 27 moves.

The current danger is if stagnation, incapacitating fear and depression kicks in. Beware the vacuum ! A lack of courage, vision, and trust building at the top will lead to chaos and violence on the ground.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 01:37 | Link to Comment honestann
honestann's picture

Nobody on earth who borrowed fiat from any bank or corporations owes one penny.  The fiat they borrowed was fake, fraud, fiction, fractional-reserve fantasy and totally bogus, and therefore they own nothing back.  However, these people (and corporations) do not own anything they purchased with those fraudulant loans either, because they paid nothing.  Of course, most people would be happy to surrender their garage full of old junk and their underwater home in exchange for zero debt.

And that's the way it should happen.  And all the banks in the world can go straight to hell where they belong for participating in an inherently corrupt scam.

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