'Totally Ridiculous' Greece Should Default Big Or Go Home
In what seems like the first honest words from a central banker in months (albeit an ex-central banker), Mario Blejer (who presided over the post-default Argentina in 2001) has some first-rate advice for G-Pap and his fellow Greeks. From an interview in Buenos Aires, Bloomberg notes the following notable quotes:
“Greece should default, and default big, you can’t jump over a chasm in two steps.”
"Rescue programs backed by the International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank are “recession creating” efforts that will leave Greece saddled with more debt relative to the size of its economy in coming years and stifle growth"
“It’s totally ridiculous what is going on,” Blejer, 63, said. “If you assume that these countries do everything that is in the program, they do all these adjustments and privatizations, at the end of 2012 debt-to-GDP will be bigger than this year.”
It seems that once you retire and are free of the shackles of self-aggrandizement, the truth can flow freely and while he does not advocate Greece leaving the Euro-zone, his view is very clear.
Germany and France will have to bear the brunt of financing efforts to help Greece and other countries that default re-start their economies - "someone will have to pay, but if they are not willing to pay for the Euro they will have to get out of the Euro."
With longer-term GGBs already trading at EUR30, it seems the market views the world this way too. The GGB price term structure does not look so hot.
UPDATE: For some context on what occurred in Argentina - it seems long-dated GGBs are indeed priced for this and shorter-dated obviously priced for this plus some short-term carry:
When the default was declared in 2002, foreign investment fled the country, and capital flow towards Argentina ceased almost completely. The Argentine government met severe challenges trying to refinance the debt. The state had no spare money at the time, and the central bank's foreign currency reserves were almost depleted.
The Argentine government kept a firm stance, and finally got a deal in 2005 by which 76% of the defaulted bonds were exchanged by others, of a much lower nominal value (25–35% of the original) and at longer terms. In 2008, President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner announced she was studying a reopening of the 2005 swap to gain adhesion from the remaining 24% of the so-called "holdouts", and thereby fully exit the default with private investors.
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Sell Santorini to US and Greece may get them self another few month of money flow.
trichet is defaulting big with the printing press, bitchez
... at last someone who has an IDEA about how to solve a sov debt crisis
more than Trichet with his sermon about "inflation expectations have to be anchored"
it is just a mess
How? The US is also broke.
Broke, in denial and hitting the hopium pipe.
We're past broke.
Berlusconi hitting the hopium pipe again
[IMG]http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/8762/imanefadil16486810x410.jpg
[URL=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/836/imanefadil16486810x410.jpg/][IMG]http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/8762/imanefadil16486810x410.jpg[/IMG][/URL]
... and how would the US pay for the island? Shipments of peanuts?
I don't like your tits, can you get another pair?
Agreed, the nipples are too dark.
With so many boobies online, you picked the nastiest pair.
Paging Pladizow!
They look like Hershey's kisses. Which is kind of cool.
Nonsense. Any are btter than none. Who doesn't like tits?
McOuzo
They just simply REFUSE to let any bit of reality enter anything today...this ends in world war, theyre just delaying it a bit.
And Im sick of this constant world focus on Greece, which is less than any 1 STATES bankruptcy problems in the US!
REALITY IS ANYTHING YOU CAN GET AWAY WITH
Indeed. So true. As long as they and the MSM keep telling the country it's the truth then the country seems to be believing them. It works until it doesn't I suppose.
newspeak bitchez...
so are ICBM's (missiles for you post cold war kranks)
Greece is a scapegoat and when it defaults all problems will be blamed on it. It is relatively small in size, hence not TBTF.
EXACTLY. How is it possible that markets aren't shitting the bed *right now* after words like that.
The mere potential for a Greek default has been giving markets the jitters -- and now their leadership says "Greece should default BIG" and markets are magically not crapping themselves?
rgentina is no poster boy or girl. They have looted the populace for 60 years under Peronists.
Hey Tyler can you stop running this "Travis Smiley Reports" "Too Important to Fail" on PBS about young black men failing in high school. I don't need a black documentary director trying to give me more Obamesque White guilt. Cut off welfare so these dropouts are not created in 3-D.
yes, default big and let europe pick up the pieces and move forward with a manageable debtload! eureka!
Of course their problem is theyve so interconnected everything, 1 failure anywhere sends it all down like dominoes! They CANT have it both ways! 'Union' everything, but not so much union when theres a problem...either they are a union or theyre not!
Did you mean union or unicorn?
I think they tried to unicorn everything.
:)
pods
Chaining all the lifeboats together in a storm seemed like a good idea, until some began to sink.
They know they can't fix this, otherwise they wouldn't be buying gold. Everything being done is just stalling to buy more gold.
Dude, your comments are always spot-on and wise (and several other posters / contributors too, like Sheep Dog One and Long John Silver).
I will now subscribe to your posts, I'm a fan.
I just fell off my chair laughing at your ridiculous gold comment! Good stuff!
No, no, gold is moving back down to <$1000/oz, it's true economic value. Gold is the ultimate bubble of course, bound to unwind quite soon, likely when the sovereign defaults commence.
Safety is not gold...in fact gold is the opposite. Safety is US treasuries, productive land and stable income producing assets.
Do us a favor and short it, please!
The only entity with a "manageable debtload" of late is AAPL.
When Argentina is calling you out you know it's close the end.
Near the end, but never actually the end, just sick of it. Sure we're bankrupt and maybe there will be a problem tomorrow, but not today my son....not today!
Speaking of Argentina...picked up that Modern Survival Manual a few days ago...interesting read. Worth the 20 beans.
Link please??, don't be coy(and selfish) because sharing is caring;)
http://www.amazon.com/dp/9870563457?tag=surviinargen-20&camp=14573&creat...
Thanks... pretty grim.
“In this world of pretenders, of deception and deceit, have I
come to find the one man who knows the reality of what he is
and the truth of what he aspires to be."
A good quote but unless you are the origin, please quote in respect.
Words and music by Buck Ram -- Platters/Freddie Mercury
Oh yes I'm the great pretender (ooh ooh)
Pretending I'm doing well (ooh ooh)
My need is such I pretend too much
I'm lonely but no one can tell
Oh yes I'm the great pretender (ooh ooh)
Adrift in a world of my own (ooh ooh)
I play the game but to my real shame
You've left me to dream all alone
Too real is this feeling of make believe
Too real when I feel what my heart can't conceal
Ooh Ooh yes I'm the great pretender (ooh ooh)
Just laughing and gay like a clown (ooh ooh)
I seem to be what I'm not (you see)
I'm wearing my heart like a crown
Pretending that you're still around
Yeah ooh hoo
Too real when I feel what my heart can't conceal
Oh yes I'm the great pretender
Just laughing and gay like a clown (ooh ooh)
I seem to be what I'm not you see
I'm wearing my heart like a crown
Pretending that you're
Pretending that you're still around
ricky bobby??????
Wait. I thought that debts don't matter. That the cure for debt problems is lots more debt. That in times of dropping private demand for debt it is governments responsibility to take on even greater debt. You know, grow or die.
/sarc
Paradise Beach on Mykynos ought to keep the Chinese happy for a few days..Sure kept me amused but then again I do enjoy anyplace in the world where only the pervs wear clothes.
Cyprus must be shaking in it's collective boots right about now. Turkey military/economy on the rise; Greek on the death spiral. Old scores to settle. just add water...
You're right, the Cypriots & Turks are getting ready to disagree...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/industries/cyprus-president-says-exploratory-drilling-for-offshore-oil-and-gas-deposits-to-begin-soon/2011/09/13/gIQA1eSIPK_story.html
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM ........Cyprus frankly doesnt give a rats ass about Erdogan's barkings because Israel will do the drilling with them, and Israel will nuke the shit out of Turkey if they hit the pedal to the metal . Erdogan is living Vivere pericolosamente
They keep missing the chance to enable Greece to default in an orderly manner, thereby making a chaotic default the only outcome possible. Ultimately, it's what's gonna happen.
That applies equally well to the entire world system. It cannot be fixed and is unsustainable. When TPTB are threatened, they will just change the rules of money and announce it is fixed. Until then, they are going to kick the can.
Some Greek official should go on TV with Louk and tell the world to fuck off cause they ain't payin!
Say GS fudged their numbers without their knowledge to get into the EU and they can all go to hell.
Then things will get interesting.
pods
he our she would be dead before night fall.
Yeah, that would be really and totally believable.
The Greeks fucked themselves when they cheated. GS enabled them to do it.
Enron wasn't able to hide behind Arthur Andersen either.
Greek common people had no knowledge, their political class and banking elite did.
When people are out for blood, logic is out the window. They will not bother to analyze and it is easy to misdirect.
No Greek will ever admit that about 50% of the population slowly bled the country dry over a period of 30 years (with great help from crooked politicians in bed with bankers of course)
They are already trying to blame the problems on tax evasion in an effort to turn the people against each other.
Run Gpap, RUN!
From the mouth of Babes...err...ex-CentralBanking thief/thug....
Have they taken delivery yet of the fancy new military gear they were eyeing last year?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/03/23/us-eurozone-greece-warships-analysis-idUSTRE62M1Q520100323
Can't ruin the credit rating till you've got your new toys...
...ponzi. must. go on. To it's dying breath, at least.
Rumor, rumor, news, rumor, news, rumor...rumor...rumor.
Angela Merkel and Finnish prime minister met today. Here's the story with a lovely Google translation:
Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen (cons), and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have discussed the Finnish security requirements generated controversy in Berlin. After the meeting with Merkel at the press conference, said that the front is very hard, and that he is convinced that a solution is found.
Merkel, Finland and Germany are in line with the debt crisis, and will continue to cooperate closely. In Germany, for the first time as prime minister visited Katainen was received with military honor ceremony.
Katainen told the Finnish reporters later that the securities become the main topic of discussion. Katainen gave, however, to understand that a security solution to the dispute can be found in even the next few days or a couple of weeks. - Begin to deal with the various parliaments of Greece, package, and then this issue must be clear.
Katainen did not specify what kind of solution would be valid for all member countries. - I do not it still can not explain it because it is quite difficult enough without it.
Minister of Jutta Urpilainen (soc dem), discussed the controversial securities a week ago the German and Dutch finance ministers. Berlin, the meeting did not provide for any concrete.
According to Greek sources, tomorrow, Wednesday, Greece's debt crisis will be discussed again. Geroge Papandreou, Greek Prime Minister to keep a phone meeting with Chancellor Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy.
AFP, according to a telephone conference later this week in Poland, paving the way for the EU finance ministers meeting.
" I do not it still can not explain it because it is quite difficult enough without it."
I could not agree more!
I love Google Translates. It's absolutely hilarious. One page I asked to translate from Dutch, (about an engine), started off, "the green sausage cannot to revolve well in this soup bowl" And, I thought, oh I don't think this is going to work.
Rabobank CEO: Greece goes bankrupt (google trans from Dutch)
Rabobank CEO Bert Bruggink: “ The question whether Greece goes bankrupt, is now over. The question is only when.”
Merkel: Greece may go bankrupt, but only in 2013 (google trans from German)
ORG: http://de.reuters.com/article/topNews/idDEBEE78C04Q20110913
This is truly idiotic coming from Merkel.
Once you say that you are going bankrupt, you go bankrupt. Ask Lehman. Once you tell your creditors that you are going bankrupt they all start banging on the door to get out before bankruptcy and they get nothing.
It is over. Now. Not 2013. Over.
20.13 is only hours away.
there's nothing to say that they can't literrally throw a money bomb at the problem , particularly if china is willing to play ball for a year in order to secure its interests in europe, 200 billlion for greece and italy doesn't seem like such a big price to pay if you can get trade, sphere of influence, and IP concessions worth as much.
but i agree about the analogy of creditors. i mean , this is classic liquidity crisis stuff. however, if you are a nation with unlimited borrowing means, ( germany ) and you tell people a subsidiary is insolvent but that you will prop it up for an orderly unwind slowly over 18 months,
some might just call that a prepackaged bankruptcy, and so ....the difference is that asset values are not sold in a fire sale in a prepack...a deal is worked out in advance so that the unwind is not too jarring.
hard to say though. who knows.
Ken Pruitt said on Bloomberg Radio this morning: "China has a lot of money, let's have them step up and buy Italian bonds!"
Lets "have them"... Priceless.
But it's extremely German; "They vill go bankrupt vhen we say, Bankrupt! Und not vun minute before!"
What is it with 2013.
Are they waiting to see if the Mayans were right.
:)
Hoping the Mayans are right is what it seems.
2013: Merkel re-election *muhawwhawwhaww*
So Merkel is willing to send hundreds of billions of Euros to Greece in order to delay bankruptcy by a year? I guess the German dream of European domination dies hard.
It kind of reminds me of Stalingrad. Hitler could have avoided a major defeat if he had only pulled his troops out in a timely fashon. Instead he left them there with vague plans to supply them by air which never really worked out.
Can somebody get Blejer on CNBS?? Puuhhhleeeeze, pretty please!
Amazing how many of these CB'ers "find clarity" after they leave office. Talk about no moral courage...
Yaaaaaaaaaaawn. Still no Armageddon. Everything is calculated in now. Merry Christmas.
Amerika needs to FIRE THE GOVERNMENT.... ALL OF IT and start over and smaller
Amerika needs to FIRE THE GOVERNMENT.... ALL OF IT and Not start over and smaller
Fixed it fer ya
Eddie Izzard: Cake or Death!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZVjKlBCvhg
nooo, keep the euros flowing to greece!!! good for my gold!!!!!!!! print print print!!!
One redeeming benefit from all this euro nonsense is knowing that Rockefeller's plan for globalisation is unraveling before his serpentine eyes!
I hope you're right.
Dan, I hope to hell you are right, but as you know you can not underestimate these demons. We must watch closely. They will use this crisis to attempt to create a "United States of Europe" with one demon central bank.
You're right Mr. Ramirez. But they can delay their day of reckoning only as long as we allow. And more people are awakening. That's what happens when you get hungry and you have no job. Poverty in the US is at levels not seen since 1983. And that's just government numbers. In reality we know it is much, much worse. Those 7,000 Ferraris sold so far this year better stay covered and hidden in McBanker's McMansion because they will be spit on and keyed and trashed in no time. Keep that rope handy,Tuco. ;-)
Please!!! Someone stick a fork in it already! so we can move on to more important BKs... Italy, Portugal, Spain, CA, IL, etc.
The General Secretary of the Brussels Politburo, el Presdiente Barroso, just have Italy the kiss of death:
EU's Barroso:Italy Needs Rigorous Implementation Of Budget Plan
Italy must ensure that the implementation of its new budget plan is "rapid, effective and rigorous," European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said in a statement Tuesday following his meeting with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.
WSJ
SEPTEMBER 13, 2011, 11:48 A.M. ET
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110913-709023.html
Every single time he used that exact same terminology - when Greece was imploding, Portugal and Ireland falling into the abyss, his words were simply confirmation that it's already far too late to save that country within the eurozone.
Ciao!
God almighty.
These clowns just don't know when to shut up.
A bit of good old English reticence would be rather welcome; but as soon you cross the channel all you've got is Wogs; Bloody Wogs. Screeching and hand wringing in public, frightening the horses; disgraceful ! Simply disgraceful.
Same with the ponzimaster Olli Rehn. He knows only two things.
Every time he opens his mouth to lie more in public one or the other will become reality.
Believe me: Greece will get all the promised money. No eurocountry can let the euro default, so all parliaments will agree with the July 21 package. By October 17, Greece would run out, but it will not happen. Even the ECB will jump in and print the needed funds. Monsieur Jean-Claude will not let the euro explode or even one member go bankrupt during his tenure. It's only a matter of time, the voting in the Bundestag takes place only at the end of September. The panic is because it takes so long. By October 1, it's all done and ok. So, sleep well and a merry Christmas. Jingle bells ...
Thanks for the update Mr. Venizelos.
Even WHEN Greece defaults, Armageddon will not come. Instead, a massive run into German, Dutch and US bonds will come, as well as a run to cash and to a lesser extent gold and silver. No collapsing euro, on the contrary, that currency will strenghten. So, merry X-mas, this "war" will long be over by then. Sleep well.
Jingle Bells? Whoa, I want some of what he's smoking.
The delays in the inevitable are simply to allow the positioning of interests to take advantage of the inevitable (or at least to not be hurt by it). If you know what will come then you have the power to capitalize on its arrival (timing and etc).
G-Pap is not going to take anyone's advice. He's not on the side of Greece. He was born in the US, his mom is American, and he has no respect or understanding of Greek people. At the same time he is the ultimate government insider. His dad was PM as was his granddad, plus he has been in the government for decades. Yet, he pretends to represent change. He is working for the EU, either for neo-liberal ideological reasons or because he wants to please his buddies who are fellow prime ministers. Whatever the reason, the last thing he will do is something bold for the sake of Greece. He and his party are extremely unpopular in Greece. Unfortunately the people's rage is not properly channelled. There know what they don't want, but they don't know who will replace him. I wish they would act quickly before he irreversibly sinks the whole country (assuming that has not already happened).
Fellas fellas, the incarnation of the Iraqi information minister in France is telling us it's all good.
Solid i tell You. And united!
France is in panic and it's only a matter of time when someone else than the cds market makes the same notion. And with that we can say goodbye to the monster CDO and, well, the eurozone.
Surely Greece knows this, but they are still a net borrower. So their plan is to run up the credit lines as high as they will go then default, just like those hucksters looking to file for bankruptcy run up their credit cards first.
I dont get all that hatin' you oppose against Greece. And i dont understand how you could possibly believe that Merkozy and their pals would let Greece default. We all know very well that you cant fuck an HIV positive whore beacause you get HIV as well and you die.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_(game)
GErmany has a Mercedes Benz and Greece has a Yugo Zastava. Who do you think will pay more in rims , paintjob etc???
Dont hate the player,hate the game