'Totally Ridiculous' Greece Should Default Big Or Go Home

Tyler Durden's picture

In what seems like the first honest words from a central banker in months (albeit an ex-central banker), Mario Blejer (who presided over the post-default Argentina in 2001) has some first-rate advice for G-Pap and his fellow Greeks. From an interview in Buenos Aires, Bloomberg notes the following notable quotes:

Greece should default, and default big, you can’t jump over a chasm in two steps.”


"Rescue programs backed by the International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank are “recession creating” efforts that will leave Greece saddled with more debt relative to the size of its economy in coming years and stifle growth"


“It’s totally ridiculous what is going on,” Blejer, 63, said. “If you assume that these countries do everything that is in the program, they do all these adjustments and privatizations, at the end of 2012 debt-to-GDP will be bigger than this year.”


It seems that once you retire and are free of the shackles of self-aggrandizement, the truth can flow freely and while he does not advocate Greece leaving the Euro-zone, his view is very clear.

Germany and France will have to bear the brunt of financing efforts to help Greece and other countries that default re-start their economies - "someone will have to pay, but if they are not willing to pay for the Euro they will have to get out of the Euro."


With longer-term GGBs already trading at EUR30, it seems the market views the world this way too. The GGB price term structure does not look so hot.


UPDATE: For some context on what occurred in Argentina - it seems long-dated GGBs are indeed priced for this and shorter-dated obviously priced for this plus some short-term carry:

When the default was declared in 2002, foreign investment fled the country, and capital flow towards Argentina ceased almost completely. The Argentine government met severe challenges trying to refinance the debt. The state had no spare money at the time, and the central bank's foreign currency reserves were almost depleted.

The Argentine government kept a firm stance, and finally got a deal in 2005 by which 76% of the defaulted bonds were exchanged by others, of a much lower nominal value (25–35% of the original) and at longer terms. In 2008, President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner announced she was studying a reopening of the 2005 swap to gain adhesion from the remaining 24% of the so-called "holdouts", and thereby fully exit the default with private investors.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
PicassoInActions's picture

Sell Santorini to US and Greece may get them self another few month of money flow.

spiral_eyes's picture

trichet is defaulting big with the printing press, bitchez

mac768's picture

... at last someone who has an IDEA about how to solve a sov debt crisis

more than Trichet with his sermon about "inflation expectations have to be anchored"

it is just a mess

He_Who Carried The Sun's picture

... and how would the US pay for the island? Shipments of peanuts?

frippy's picture

I don't like your tits, can you get another pair?

Cash_is_Trash's picture

Agreed, the nipples are too dark.

With so many boobies online, you picked the nastiest pair.

Paging Pladizow!

Buckaroo Banzai's picture

They look like Hershey's kisses. Which is kind of cool.

NoTTD's picture

Nonsense.  Any are btter than none.  Who doesn't like tits?

SheepDog-One's picture

They just simply REFUSE to let any bit of reality enter anything today...this ends in world war, theyre just delaying it a bit.

And Im sick of this constant world focus on Greece, which is less than any 1 STATES bankruptcy problems in the US!

vast-dom's picture


j0nx's picture

Indeed. So true. As long as they and the MSM keep telling the country it's the truth then the country seems to be believing them. It works until it doesn't I suppose.

john39's picture

newspeak bitchez...

prains's picture

so are ICBM's   (missiles for you post cold war kranks)

BorisTheBlade's picture

Greece is a scapegoat and when it defaults all problems will be blamed on it. It is relatively small in size, hence not TBTF.

Popo's picture

EXACTLY.  How is it possible that markets aren't shitting the bed *right now* after words like that.

The mere potential for a Greek default has been giving markets the jitters -- and now their leadership says "Greece should default BIG" and markets are magically not crapping themselves? 


Freddie's picture

rgentina is no poster boy or girl.  They have looted the populace for 60 years under Peronists. 

Hey Tyler can you stop running this "Travis Smiley Reports" "Too Important to Fail" on PBS about young black men failing in high school.  I don't need a black documentary director trying to give me more Obamesque White guilt.  Cut off welfare so these dropouts are not created in 3-D.

oogs66's picture

yes, default big and let europe pick up the pieces and move forward with a manageable debtload!  eureka!

SheepDog-One's picture

Of course their problem is theyve so interconnected everything, 1 failure anywhere sends it all down like dominoes! They CANT have it both ways! 'Union' everything, but not so much union when theres a problem...either they are a union or theyre not!

pods's picture

Did you mean union or unicorn?

I think they tried to unicorn everything.



Smiddywesson's picture

Chaining all the lifeboats together in a storm seemed like a good idea, until some began to sink.

They know they can't fix this, otherwise they wouldn't be buying gold.  Everything being done is just stalling to buy more gold.

zapdude's picture

Dude, your comments are always spot-on and wise (and several other posters / contributors too, like Sheep Dog One and Long John Silver). 

I will now subscribe to your posts, I'm a fan.

theotheri's picture

I just fell off my chair laughing at your ridiculous gold comment! Good stuff!

No, no, gold is moving back down to <$1000/oz, it's true economic value. Gold is the ultimate bubble of course, bound to unwind quite soon, likely when the sovereign defaults commence.

Safety is not gold...in fact gold is the opposite. Safety is US treasuries, productive land and stable income producing assets.

Roger Knights's picture

Do us a favor and short it, please!

mayhem_korner's picture

The only entity with a "manageable debtload" of late is AAPL.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

When Argentina is calling you out you know it's close the end.

SheepDog-One's picture

Near the end, but never actually the end, just sick of it. Sure we're bankrupt and maybe there will be a problem tomorrow, but not today my son....not today!

UpAndComing's picture

Speaking of Argentina...picked up that Modern Survival Manual a few days ago...interesting read. Worth the 20 beans.

somethingisrotten's picture

“In this world of pretenders, of deception and deceit, have I
come to find the one man who knows the reality of what he is
and the truth of what he aspires to be."

Debt-Penitent's picture

A good quote but unless you are the origin, please quote in respect.

Deadpool's picture

Words and music by Buck Ram -- Platters/Freddie Mercury

Oh yes I'm the great pretender (ooh ooh)
Pretending I'm doing well (ooh ooh)
My need is such I pretend too much
I'm lonely but no one can tell

Oh yes I'm the great pretender (ooh ooh)
Adrift in a world of my own (ooh ooh)
I play the game but to my real shame
You've left me to dream all alone

Too real is this feeling of make believe
Too real when I feel what my heart can't conceal

Ooh Ooh yes I'm the great pretender (ooh ooh)
Just laughing and gay like a clown (ooh ooh)
I seem to be what I'm not (you see)
I'm wearing my heart like a crown
Pretending that you're still around

Yeah ooh hoo
Too real when I feel what my heart can't conceal

Oh yes I'm the great pretender
Just laughing and gay like a clown (ooh ooh)
I seem to be what I'm not you see
I'm wearing my heart like a crown
Pretending that you're
Pretending that you're still around

centerline's picture

Wait. I thought that debts don't matter. That the cure for debt problems is lots more debt. That in times of dropping private demand for debt it is governments responsibility to take on even greater debt. You know, grow or die.


wharfdaddy's picture

Paradise Beach on Mykynos ought to keep the Chinese happy for a few days..Sure kept me amused but then again I do enjoy anyplace in the world where only the pervs wear clothes.

Deadpool's picture

Cyprus must be shaking in it's collective boots right about now. Turkey military/economy on the rise; Greek on the death spiral. Old scores to settle. just add water...

Jacks Cold Sweat's picture

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM ........Cyprus frankly doesnt give a rats ass about Erdogan's barkings because Israel will do the drilling with them, and Israel will nuke the shit out of Turkey if they hit the pedal to the metal . Erdogan is living Vivere pericolosamente 

Version 7's picture

They keep missing the chance to enable Greece to default in an orderly manner, thereby making a chaotic default the only outcome possible. Ultimately, it's what's gonna happen.

Smiddywesson's picture

That applies equally well to the entire world system.  It cannot be fixed and is unsustainable.  When TPTB are threatened, they will just change the rules of money and announce it is fixed.  Until then, they are going to kick the can.

pods's picture

Some Greek official should go on TV with Louk and tell the world to fuck off cause they ain't payin!

Say GS fudged their numbers without their knowledge to get into the EU and they can all go to hell.

Then things will get interesting.


Deadpool's picture

he our she would be dead before night fall.

walküre's picture

Say GS fudged their numbers without their knowledge

Yeah, that would be really and totally believable.

The Greeks fucked themselves when they cheated. GS enabled them to do it.

Enron wasn't able to hide behind Arthur Andersen either.

Greek common people had no knowledge, their political class and banking elite did.

edotabin's picture

When people are out for blood, logic is out the window.  They will not bother to analyze and it is easy to misdirect.

No Greek will ever admit that about 50% of the population slowly bled the country dry over a period of 30 years (with great help from crooked politicians in bed with bankers of course)

They are already trying to blame the problems on tax evasion in an effort to turn the people against each other.


Run Gpap, RUN!


Josh Randall's picture

From the mouth of Babes...err...ex-CentralBanking thief/thug....