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Toxic Spiral: Greek Office Vacancies Soar As Tourism Industry Implodes
While the theatrics of the Greek parliamentary elections are all good and fine, keeping the masses distracted, and will most likely provide an encore performance in just about one month as no government will likely be formed under the current configuration of elected parties, the reality is that unless something drastically changes for the better in the Greek economy, the political situation will only get more and more chaotic until finally the country succumbs to outright anarchy, and possibly far worse. Unfortunately, as history has shown us, economic depressions usually become toxic death spirals where absent major external shocks, there is no hope of recovery. Sure enough, the latest news of Greece confirms just that. As Ekathimerini reports, the real news is that while superficially change may be coming to Greece, beneath the surface absolutely nothing is improving and in fact things are getting worse as measured by two key indicators: i) vacant Athens office space, which has soared to 20% in Q1 2012 compared to 15.5% a year earlier, which means far less corporate tax revenues and business spending, and ii) the lifeblood of the Greek economy - foreign tourism - is drying up, plunging by 12.5%, as foreigners suddenly have better things to do than go to countries better known for the Syntagma Square riot cam than the beaches of Santorini. Not surprisingly, the biggest source of foreign tourists, Germany, has seen its share dry to a trickle from 15% to just 3% - one can't imagine why those called Nazis by the neo-Nazis would have reservations about spending 2 weeks in the former tourist haven. The result: far less tax revenues, far greater reliance on debt as source of cash, and an economic collapse in 2012 that will put 2011 to shame. So much for the IMF estimate of an unchanged GDP print in 2013 on which the entire second Greek bailout package was based...
From Kathimerini:
Athens has the highest rate of empty office space in Europe, according to data for the year’s first quarter presented by BNP Paribas Real Estate.
Its report on the course of the European office market showed that the availability rate in the Greek capital soared to 20 percent in the January-March period from 15.5 percent in the same period last year.
This clearly illustrates the blow that the recession has inflicted on the country’s business activity, resulting in a major drop in demand for the lease of office space.
High-standard offices in the city’s main business districts have an annual lease rate of 216 euros per square meter, against an average of 264 euros/sq.m. last year. Athens’s rate is on a par with those of The Hague, Bucharest and Lisbon.
And even worse:
Online tourism bookings from abroad are pointing to a 12.5 percent decline for this year, according to the Airfasttickets travel agency.
Nikos Koklonis, head of the company that owns the agency, says that the biggest drop in bookings for Greek destinations this year is from the German market, which last year accounted for 15 percent of all bookings. Its share has now shrunk to just 3 percent.
Surprisingly, most bookings from abroad this year originate from Italy, followed by Britain, Spain, France and Austria. One in four clients the agency handles chooses Greece as its destination.
Association of Hellenic Tourism Enterprises president (SETE) Andreas Andreadis expects receipts from tourism to drop below 10 billion euros this year, after climbing to 10.5 billion in 2011.
Well, at least Santorini has not erupted yet...
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Memorandum is happiness for Greece (former vice PM Pangalos)
Perception is a killer when it comes to tourist destinations. Had Greece acted swiftly, exited the Euro and gone through the worst of it quickly, they not only may have avoided a long-term negative perception as an unstable and potentially dangerous place to visit, but could have capitalized on the weakness of the reborn Drachma and lured in greater numbers of tourists from the standpoint of value, and a little sympathy tourism couldn't hurt either (hey neighbors we're in a bind and could use your patronage, our beaches our beautiful, a Euro goes a long way here, come visit us). Unfortunately, and largely against the will of the Greek people, the politicians have dragged this out by thinking a debt problem can be solved with even more debt, and not only failed to fix the issue, but have now short-circuited the most important sector of the economy. Another fantastical failure for team Central Planner!
A concur..
I visitied Greece several times in the 80's when the threat from radicals was abounding but they took swift action...
That said, WHO in their right mind would want to visit a country so unstable that you might end up not being able to leave the country except in a miltary jet?
The bottom line... bailing out the banksters may have bought the EU and the world another day but it put the final nial in the global coffin for the years later..
GAME OVER
THE WHOLE FRAUDSTER GAME CALLED WALL STREET IS ALMOST DONE DESPITE HIGHER PONZI PRICES!!!
Yeah, it's tough to topple an entrenched ruling plutocracy which spreads the ill-gotten billons around to consigliere, captains and soldiers.
http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/6048/imagen2jl.jpg
I think I'd probably poop my pants if I saw one of those open up in person
http://cdnimg.visualizeus.com/thumbs/4c/b6/hole,lake,landscape,sinkhole,water-4cb6da8a13d2064c82479d60f3510462_i.jpg
http://www.bluepoof.com/motorcycles/trips/clear_lake/pics/cache/75pct/076-lake_berryessa_sinkhole.jpg
redpill - awesome photos, thanks!
In Greece? HAHAHAHAHA. THIS is the current state of "mafia law" in Greece:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITlo0K0XU6E&feature=player_detailpage
...and the govt unionized "workers" who make up over 50% of the work force and most avoid paying taxes like Buffet.
Not only vacationing but buying. We were looking at a vacation place on one of the Greek isles but despite rock-bottom prices, have concluded that there are just too many legal and safety issues. Nations on the slide resort to all manner of things, much of it outside the laws of that country.
So tourism is gone (we've been several times) as well as investment. If Greece had exited the Euro and devalued the drachma tourists would have rushed in. Yet another example of politics trumping reason.
And guess what since Team Central Planner got hammered at the polls on Sunday and failed to form a coalition yesterday they are suddenly re-positioning themselves for the next round
From Venizelos - The bailout terms CAN be re-negotiated - Hey you fat fuck why didnt you do that in the first place?
From Samares - We said it wouldn't work in the first place - Well why the fuck did you support it then apart from your own bid to get power?
Let's hope the public see throgh this sham and really hammer the bastards in the upcoming Son of Greek Electons in June
This and more over at my blog:
http://jmcaule-whatimlookingatrightnow.blogspot.ca/
The europeans from other countries have less money themselves to go on holiday.
Neuro countries are using their 2nd holiday money for other purposes now.
This Space For Rent.
(cheap)
Why should the Germans pay for a Greek vacation now when they can just occupy it for free in a few months?
Good one. Ze Germans are gonna save Greece from the neo-nazis... or so they will say.
Ze Germans will save Greek Central Bank gold from the neo-nazis.
For the second time.
But didn´t S&P upgrade Greece
The vacancy rate does not tell the real truth. Even those owners who do have their office space occupied are having to contend with two other problems. First, the dropping rentals and secondly, the massive arrears in rental. So the real picture in terms of gross rentals received year on year could in fact be down by 30-50%. This is the reality.
it sounds like a rising river where water is rushing in - faster and faster - not yet a flood but the roads are all up to the hubcaps and people are looking to decide should they get in their car and try to forge across the road and will they make it to the other side or get swept into the malstrom - i am starting to believe this is a "contangion" condition which precipitates a break in another section of the levy from the pressure and then another as systems backs up
we are witnessing a huge catastrophe in motion that will take much of the established order down - Greece is a early view point on a hill - the UK/France/ Spain etc etc and the USA cities and states are all in motion at various speeds of chaos coming - confusion and terror is palpable
i hope they lynch these lying cheating politicians
And out of this impending Chaos shall arise the New World Order.
Free hand tattoes coming to a town near you. 666
This is the end..... My only friend, the end.
The end of old style politics between sovereign European nations? Yes. But it's the beginning of the something much more, the New World Order.
In the end every E.U. member will voluntarily give up their last bit of sovereignty to the European Union, the cornerstone of the NWO.
mmmm... Old Style!
Yep greece is totally fubar. I thought there was a small chance of them staying in the euro and pulling thru. That fat lady is on stage and getting ready to sing.
Its all over except for the post collapse blame game. That shud go on a long time
I always liked Jim
..
The hits just keep on comming!
I am sure some are praying for an eruption so then they can go on UN aid.
What are the squatting laws in Greece?
Nowhere near as lax as those in China (H/T AKAK).
Priced in...
THE SPARTANS WILL RISE FROM THE ASHES AND CRUSH THE EURO NER DO WELLS - or they'll sit on the beach in speedos and eat some spanokopita.....
All the Greeks should band together melt down some silver into silver bullets and go hunting for that Vampire Meat.
-Bernank Shmuelle Rockwell (CompareSilverPrices.com)
Want to stop the death spiral? Purge the friggen debt! Stop playing the role of the banker's little bitch.
I just signed up for the Molitov Cocktail tour package in Greece. I get five days and four nights which include:
What a bargain!
Opa!
throw in a handful of treats for the riot dog, and you have a deal.
Hey it might be fun to throw a Molotov cocktail at something. I think you're on to something - Anarchy Tourism.
And the bottle of Windex is for what, precisely?
These are called LEADING indicators....to bad the IMF knows nothing about them.....
Hell - you can only eat so much moussaka and feta cheese salad before you want to go home for some good grub!
Theres no such thing as a Government, the only thing that matters inside a "nation" is the economy.
If the economy is shit, the government has no power because the people become angry and unrulable... they will not listen to "understand" or "obey" the "authority" of a mythical bankrupt "agency" of "government" that is only trying to take money out of their pockets and put it into the pockets of people who have done nothing to earn it.
We'll see. The notion of "odious debt" applies to Greece in my opinion. The next 5 generations of Greeks should not be enslaved to the banks because their parents and grand parents ran up impossibly huge debts.
Every generation of Greeks default. The next 5 generations will be no different.
Like Americans, Germans, or any other nation is any better.
Lets put it this way, if you didn't have generational debt in this system you wouldn't have any money in circulation.
It's physically impossible under the current banking structure for an entire nation/population to pay off their "debts" without atleast 60% of them defaulting on their loans entirely.
The entire system is a joke, the generation of bankers running things don't actually understand what they are doing anymore, there is so much fraud that no one can even keep track of it anymore or... its just pointless to even bother because 99% of the money in circulation is counterfeit loan agreements.
it's like the 'big suck'.
She's gone from suck to blow!!
Reality will eventually have its revenge. All it takes is time. Be patient and prepare.
Seriously, you're Spanish and your first choice for a holiday destination is Greece? Your own depression not enough for you?
What better way there is to cheer up than to spend a bit of time there where it's worse?
point of order: please do not use the term "Anarchy" to
imply chaos. That's the MSM definition. Self-governance does not equate to chaos.
Got you. Anarchy, as in the warmongering term "failed nation" , is a means of saying they are about to lose control of vassal resources.
I always thought Southern Italy was the Mexico of Europe. Now I know it's Greece.
Can't we just make the Germans work harder?
Two girls I know told me they were going to vacation for ten days in Greece. I advised them against it, since, you know, economic chaos and all.
They went anyway, and when they got back, I asked one, "How was it?"
"Good," she told me. "Though our hotel room did get robbed and all the money and jewelry in our bags got stolen. But we still had our credit cards!"
Sounds like a lovely place. Too bad I can't bring my gun.
the Oracle of Delphi doesn't draw anymore
Lovely place for vacation isn't it ?
Watch this:
Greek neonazi leader gives Hitler-style speech after the elections
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4AXJx3IzdY&feature=player_embedded
Adolfis Papahitleris ?
I just recall those Newspaper Shitstorms some time ago with Merkel in a Nazi Fuehrer Uniform.
You guys sure she's (vee zhe Germanz) really better in this Nazi Shit ?
This dude sure did win the contest.
Now just imagine how stupid the voters must be to vote or such a cretin.
Awesome thought, really....
... see you at the beach.
Well if Greece has a Communist party in their parliament why should they not have a Nazi one. If it is acceptable to be a supporter of Lenin, Stalin and the rest, of the Red crap, but when the other end of the spectrum comes up, it is all of a sudden a disaster or something. If it is unacceptable to be a Nazi or a Fascist, it should also be unacceptable to be Marxist (pretty much every EU official was one), Maoist (Barozo was one), or leader of the Communist youth(Merkel), or a Stasi informant(allegedly Merkel, but most of her Stasi file was "lost").
If Greek Communists or Marxists can pull off such an epic flatus cerebri in front of running cameras - they too will be on my favourites list.
What is fascinating about this performance is the obvious and plain stupidity - independend of any political direction.
They do. But it has sort of become acceptable and expected from them, so it goes unnoticed. I don't know what the Greek Communists are like, but I can tell you the Reds never hid their attitude, and it is acceptable for them to display it. Where do you think all this central planning crap in Europe is comming from, Merkel, Barozo, etc,etc.
As far as the video is concerned, journalists need a lesson in discipline every now and then anyway.
The "political spectrum" is actually two-dimensional, and the Nazis (Fascists) and the Socialists are pretty much in the same quadrant.
Again A big FU to the ECU the euro big banks the IMF and Ben the prick.
I hope Greece becomes the poster boy for a people that tells TPTB to go fuck themselves. Too bad about the un-entitled resourceful citizens not the entitled lazy pricks.
Yasu.
Jb
The Greeks don't pay their taxes. (WISELY in my view.) My solution is as simple as it is elegant: "London announced the Olympic Games are hereby relocated to Athens."
Actually an excellent solution. Bring them back permanently to greece
This and more over at my blog:
http://jmcaule-whatimlookingatrightnow.blogspot.ca/
I'll rent a space. Move a couch in a bed, fridge, CPUs and maybe a TV. Then create a writeoff shop that sells used fire extinguishers.
The bank bailout has been completed. The ensuing chaos after the elections was probably a calculated risk. Greece can go to the dogs now. They can leave the Euro as they won't get anymore funding, ever. And the saddest part is that it won't affect the rest of the Eurozone at all. Greeks played their part. The last government fucked the people and has been voted out. Doesn't matter anymore. The decisions from the last government were reaching far and beyond their rule.
Greece will become a footnote in the balance sheets of the ECB and the EU member states. Maybe some hardcore collection agency will offer to buy the debt from the ECB. Either way, nobody really cares over there. Done.
OK ! Doner kebabs on the house !
This article was well done. I'm glad the adjective chosen for a 5 star rating was 'awesome' because it was exactly what I had in mind.
Don't worry. This was planned way in advance at that New York private club: Each of the 20 Zillionaire Hedgies present has secretly bought 1/20th of the country and will gladly employ all out-of-work citizens as feather fan fanners, foot washers, bonbon feeders, or harp and violin players. Greece will become THE luxury retreat for latter day Neros and Caligulas.
Meanwhile, from the CDE board, because here is as good a place to post it as anywhere else:
If a Reuters reporter does not understand the mining industry and turns a decisive BEAT into a miss on the strength of what a Short seller whispered in his or her silly, corrupt little ear, then he or she should be fired immediately.
CDE should demand a rewritten story coming out this morning.
On the other hand, analysts understand what's what. Lots of room for ratings upgrades and target upgrades. I believe we get SEVERAL - 3 or 4 - over the next few weeks.
And Tiny Terror's performance last night was something - even for him. There must be a very prominent CNBC Insider in big trouble with Gold, Silver, and Euro Shorts. Let's hope it is good ole Princess Dennis again.
But again, again, and again! If CDE is ringing a bell on Wall Street this week, that means it will at long last be getting some on-air interviews after a long hiatus. As CDE goes, so goes Silver - so expect Silver to be granted ITS long-awaited rally very shortly.
Remember, this is not a market. It is an elaborate computer game. Whenever the Ninnies say zig, you now have to zag.
(But they should still be ashamed of themselves. I understand historians are now calling Napoleon Bonaparte's peculiar psychological profile a "Cramer Complex.")
Hungary ( Budapest ) has a 25% availability rate and 100€-120€/sqm/year lease rate . The lease prices in Greece will fall another 30-40 percent....