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Trannies Tumble Even As Oil Stumbles

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Volume was extremely weak on a run-rate basis during the middle of the session, picked up once we started the oil-driven algo-correction, then faded as AAPL dragged equities up to their VWAPs leaving the Dow Transports notably underperforming, NASDAAPL just in the green and small drops in the Dow and the S&P. Notably the S&P reached back down to the day-session closing price from FOMC-day and reversed all the way back to its VWAP at the close - the machines were well and truly in charge today! Treasury yields were lower on the day with the long-end outperforming and so real pullback as stocks surged. Oil dominated the price action of the day as correlation monkeys pulled and pushed around the pit close and contract roll with un-priced-in SPR rumors blamed by some. USD strength on the day saw commodities in general leaking lower. Markets had a very illiquid EKG-like feeling to them today - more so than most in recent times - with post-Europe-close activity in equity, volatility, and credit appearing to almost stop entirely. The Trannies closed today below pre-FOMC statement levels.

 

Trannies are back below the pre-FOMC levels... as NASDAQ surges further...The Dow, The S&P, and The Russell 2000 are grouped up around 1.5%...

 

across asset classes - TSYs led the risk-off sense to which stocks and gold caught down into the mid-afternoon; but gold and stocks recovered higher into the close once AAPl started to move...

 

Credit markets tracked stocks all day with perhaps a small outperformance but heading into the roll this week we suspect last week saw losers exit and winners starting to cover into strength... with the roll perhaps some technical pressure on spreads will flop over to stocks but it doesn't seem like positioning was extreme either way.

 

Commodities more than most show the dramatic non-normal instantaneous dips and rips of recent days...

 

and today's regime shifts from total absence of volume to complete chaos - with an algo-pleasing end at VWAP coincidentally tells the tale of the tape...

 

AAPL rules the waves - or just a strange coincidence that AAPL is ripped right as ES touches Bernanke's QEterntity close level and lifts ES perfectly top VWAP - come on now!!!

Post FOMC, the sectors have normalized a little with Energy reverting down and Healthcare up today - thou Utilities are still sold (and high beta Materials/Financials fell today)...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

Bonus Chart: AAPL Options prices imply an extremely complacent skew in the expected distribution of returns going forward... historically (small sample size) we have seen this extreme complacency play out and then as it rolls over so the stocks comes off - this time is different? 

 


 

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Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:37 | 2804875 AllThatGlitters
AllThatGlitters's picture

Meanwhile, silver coils up in preparation for another surge higher:

 

Who thinks today's action signals that the precious metals are done? Silver preparing for liftoff:  

 

http://www.pmbull.com/silver-price/

 

Today felt more like the quiet before the storm to me.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:43 | 2804900 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

Wow...quick look at headline, thought it said:

TRANNIES STUMBLE AS OIL IS LUBED

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:57 | 2804927 fuu
fuu's picture

More stonger stimulus!

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:44 | 2804902 malikai
malikai's picture

Today felt like what happens when you eat the worm.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:49 | 2804921 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The PPT.....well, excuuuuuuuuuuse me.....The President's Working Group on Financial Markets...must knock oil down between now and November 6th no matter the cost, tactic or method.

After that, every-'ting be irie man, and they be chillin' and sippin' on Courvoisier.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 17:45 | 2805145 flacon
flacon's picture

Let's hope so, AllThatGlitters.... let's hope so.... it's about time that tin-cheap silver gets a gold medal! Come on little silver pony, you can do it! 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:38 | 2804878 lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

We will prove to you there is no inflation.

What horseshit.

 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:40 | 2804886 Robslob
Robslob's picture

These are not the markets you are looking for...

These are not the markets you are looking for...

These are not the markets you are looking for...

These are not the markets you are looking for...

These are not the markets you are looking for...

These are not the markets you are looking for...

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:41 | 2804890 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Total tranny erh I mean Tyranny.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:42 | 2804893 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Do they really think they can push commodities down forever, or are they trying to maintain a lower pre-crisis reference point so that when the black swan (China/Japan, Middle East generally, Iran, etc) finally starts honking for real they can blame the swan for the inevitable price explosings and disclaim any role of monetary policy? 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:43 | 2804896 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I am pretty sure Obama requested a chance at getting re-elected.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:42 | 2804894 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Obama promised gasoline would not be $12 a gallon by Christmas.  Then someone dumped a buch of oil IOU contracts on the market.  Just a normal day in America as far as I can tell.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:45 | 2804906 jimmytorpedo
jimmytorpedo's picture

Bernanke blew the trannies.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:46 | 2804911 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

No one actually 'has' their new Fed money yet.  Given the correlation to Japan, and given the influx of money into various types of bond funds, I'm not sure I would be selling any 4% to 5% mortgage paper I might be holding to the Fed if I were a bond fund manager.  What else am I supposed to buy?  Treasuries?  At least the mortgage backed paper has some type of real asset behind it.  QEternity works both ways - if the Fed wants to buy $40 billion a mont don't assume the markets are going to give the Fed any breaks on price.  There isn't enough supply to cause the price to drop, and there isn't enough new paper coming onto the market to meet the Fed demands AND the bond funds needs.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:46 | 2804912 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

blah, blah, ... AAPL closed strong, bullish!

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:48 | 2804916 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

New play, OIL 100 bps trailing entry point for short (15 second interval), target 300 bps.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:49 | 2804930 roadsnbridges
roadsnbridges's picture

$700/Apfel

Coming soon to a store near you.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:54 | 2804936 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Did the trannies tumble over a midget, or an SEC " worker"?

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 16:59 | 2804959 new game
new game's picture

too many problems to list; but it was a good ol fashion shakeout of weak hands.

talking about gold and silver...

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:56 | 2805702 SubjectivObject
SubjectivObject's picture

... wanker, SEC wanker. 

Dwarf dick up !

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 17:28 | 2805067 nobodyimportant
nobodyimportant's picture

Gasoline has never been cheaper in my memory.  In 1955 a silver quarter bought a gallon of gas.  Today a silver quarter will buy about 2 gallons of gas.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 17:45 | 2805138 Floodmaster
Floodmaster's picture

Public Money for Public Investment,

Banks will soon invest your money in the Natural Gas distribution, Roads and High-speed rail, America's move toward energy independence! ... AAPL loving Zombie banks should have never existed.

 

 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 18:02 | 2805197 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

Heaven forbid that AAPL should fall in price because that would force The Dictator, Benny, and Congress to rescue them with a bailout to save all those Chinese jobs.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 18:16 | 2805235 godzila
godzila's picture

Sorry missed that one - trannies ??

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 23:51 | 2806040 Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

It's like threeleggedcupcake dot tumblr dot com .

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 18:42 | 2805301 ES-Sniper
ES-Sniper's picture

Todays move in oil was nothing more than Bernake's team, firing a shot at the longs in Crude.

Nothing like a fed engineered flash crash to keep the longs licking their wounds for a few days.

A few more of those, and the same thing that happened to the NYSE volume will happen to Crude.

 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 18:48 | 2805319 topspinslicer
topspinslicer's picture

War on multi-fronts will need plenty of oil

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 19:09 | 2805344 chump666
chump666's picture

Love that volatility on the oil price, kinda amusing. No conspiracy theory but the Fed will try and correct the market, wait for it...doing and saying nothing for a little while.  July melt-up courtesy of don Mario, then Jackson Hole, then nutso BB doing the "unlimited" QE, gave us our year top.

More amusement to follow (and some nice ranges to swing trade the volatility). Yes they will try and steer a rudderless boat, that being the chaos of the markets and everything attached to it.  But, I hope Nanex posts a chart soon showing the offer/bids HFTs doing their crazed 'sell-buy-sell' pattern (last session). 

Which is kinda frightening...

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 20:52 | 2805692 SubjectivObject
SubjectivObject's picture

At some point, fright ceases to be an intellectual certainty, and becomes the visceral reality.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 21:26 | 2805784 chump666
chump666's picture

I agree.  Best metaphor so far http://youtu.be/_jvqPvDUEW8

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