Trannies Tumble Even As Oil Stumbles

Tyler Durden's picture

Volume was extremely weak on a run-rate basis during the middle of the session, picked up once we started the oil-driven algo-correction, then faded as AAPL dragged equities up to their VWAPs leaving the Dow Transports notably underperforming, NASDAAPL just in the green and small drops in the Dow and the S&P. Notably the S&P reached back down to the day-session closing price from FOMC-day and reversed all the way back to its VWAP at the close - the machines were well and truly in charge today! Treasury yields were lower on the day with the long-end outperforming and so real pullback as stocks surged. Oil dominated the price action of the day as correlation monkeys pulled and pushed around the pit close and contract roll with un-priced-in SPR rumors blamed by some. USD strength on the day saw commodities in general leaking lower. Markets had a very illiquid EKG-like feeling to them today - more so than most in recent times - with post-Europe-close activity in equity, volatility, and credit appearing to almost stop entirely. The Trannies closed today below pre-FOMC statement levels.

 

Trannies are back below the pre-FOMC levels... as NASDAQ surges further...The Dow, The S&P, and The Russell 2000 are grouped up around 1.5%...

 

across asset classes - TSYs led the risk-off sense to which stocks and gold caught down into the mid-afternoon; but gold and stocks recovered higher into the close once AAPl started to move...

 

Credit markets tracked stocks all day with perhaps a small outperformance but heading into the roll this week we suspect last week saw losers exit and winners starting to cover into strength... with the roll perhaps some technical pressure on spreads will flop over to stocks but it doesn't seem like positioning was extreme either way.

 

Commodities more than most show the dramatic non-normal instantaneous dips and rips of recent days...

 

and today's regime shifts from total absence of volume to complete chaos - with an algo-pleasing end at VWAP coincidentally tells the tale of the tape...

 

AAPL rules the waves - or just a strange coincidence that AAPL is ripped right as ES touches Bernanke's QEterntity close level and lifts ES perfectly top VWAP - come on now!!!

Post FOMC, the sectors have normalized a little with Energy reverting down and Healthcare up today - thou Utilities are still sold (and high beta Materials/Financials fell today)...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

Bonus Chart: AAPL Options prices imply an extremely complacent skew in the expected distribution of returns going forward... historically (small sample size) we have seen this extreme complacency play out and then as it rolls over so the stocks comes off - this time is different?