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Treasuries Plummet To 3 Month Low Yields As Equities Recouple

Tyler Durden's picture




 

US Treasuries opened just over an hour ago and are now trading considerably lower in yield. 10Y yields are under 1.84%, their lowest since February 3rd and within a few bps of ther 1.7959% yield lows of mid-December which would all but guarantee a return to the September 2012 2011 low yields. More critically for all those QE-hopers, the massive divergence which we have been vociferously arguing as unsustainable between 10Y yields and the S&P 500 has how collapsed and converged perfectly. From last Tuesday's Bernanke press-conference when he hinted (albeit hedged with chatter of recklessness) that QE was still on the table (which we argued meant that - should the entire world suddenly go pear-shaped, we will step in but until then we are on hold), US equities decided that they should forget fundamentals once again and simply bid the market on nominal price improvement based on fiat-debasement - which enabled a 50 point divergence from reality- which has now completely converged and in fact S&P futures are now 10-15points below the pre-Bernanke-week-hope lows.

10Y Yields are at 3-month lows...

As a reminder, not only are macro data serially disappointing (or simply Schrodinger-ing where impossible to fudge) but while earnings may be interpreted by many as good for Q1 they are merely reflexively biased from a reduced expectation going in and more critically (for those investors who don't have a time-machine - everyone except Tilson), although these quarterly earnings look positive they have done nothing to change 2012 overall EPS estimates as the back-end remains heavily hoped hyped loaded.

 

 

Broadly-speaking, US equity futures, Treasuries, and FX markets have stabilized at somewhat convergent levels for now and as the Yuan depreciates (that's the opposite of appreciates Senator Schumer) the most in 3 weeks, we await Europe's open for the real derisking action to begin (especially as we remind readers of the drying-up of collateral for any new ECB funding shenanigans - most notably for the worst nations such as Spain as we noted here).

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:44 | 2402387 devo
devo's picture

Markets always revert to their mean.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:49 | 2402398 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Treasuries safe haven!!! lol

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 23:04 | 2402424 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Dammit, I had no idea how this might play out so I took profits on my short positions on Friday. Oh well, there will be plenty of time to play it both ways in the months to come, I think, but short term the downside holds much potential.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 23:38 | 2402482 4shzl
4shzl's picture

AH action is all bullshit. BTFD.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 07:52 | 2402865 DavidC
DavidC's picture

You'd have made 130 points on the Dow buying at the lows last night.

With Gold, since 2000, if you'd bought on the asian open and sold at the Asian close, you'd have made 5,000% PROFIT as opposed to a 70% LOSS buying on the US open and selling on the US close.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/gold-manipulated-thats-okay/72892

So, sure, after hours action is bullshit. Not.

DavidC

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 23:06 | 2402430 CH1
CH1's picture

Treasuries safe haven!!! lol

Sadly, LOTS of people think so.

The last dance of the lemmings?

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 23:20 | 2402453 Hulk
Hulk's picture

The ultimate (and final) bubble...

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 23:24 | 2402461 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

I got my FED in a box....

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 07:53 | 2402868 DavidC
DavidC's picture

I hope.

DavidC

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:50 | 2402399 Manthong
Manthong's picture

And if you are a bull right now, that means a mean mean.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:52 | 2402405 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

We must repeat ....

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 23:34 | 2402476 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

What ever became of all those "shovel ready" jobs?

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 00:39 | 2402537 Charles Wilson
Charles Wilson's picture

Can you just wait a minute or two?

We've gotta get the Death Panels up and running before the "Shovel Ready" jobs come online.

 

CW

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 01:36 | 2402591 jmcaule4
jmcaule4's picture

Anti-austerity governments and it's implication for future money printing in the Eurozone. 

http://jmcaule-whatimlookingatrightnow.blogspot.ca/

King World News + More!

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 03:15 | 2402650 jmcaule4
jmcaule4's picture

S&P 500 timing system returns 289.81% over the past five years.

http://jmcaule-whatimlookingatrightnow.blogspot.ca/

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:47 | 2402391 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

I don't know who Tyler Durden is and although I have questioned his predictions in the past as it took the world a little while to catch up, he is beginning to sound very accurate to my ears.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:48 | 2402395 devo
devo's picture

He's Ben Bernanke, bitchez.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:53 | 2402407 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

You mean like Fight Club, where he wakes up and realises he and Tyler are really the same guy? That's just sick.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 00:18 | 2402524 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

who is the chick being banged in this revelation?

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 00:31 | 2402531 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

What's the name of Greenspan's wife? Andrea Mitchell?

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 06:41 | 2402786 Muppet Pimp
Muppet Pimp's picture

We're all Tyler Durden

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:49 | 2402396 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

I don't think there's any question Tyler is right.  The question is when he will be proved right.   

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 00:37 | 2402535 ultimate warrior
ultimate warrior's picture

Tyler Durden would say "fuck Martha Stewart. Martha is pollishing brass on the Titanic." That is who Tyler Durden is.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:51 | 2402401 Yamaha
Yamaha's picture

Remember, fear is twice the emotion of greed....

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:54 | 2402408 Joe The Plumber
Joe The Plumber's picture

Thirty year at two percent probably. These things go longer and get more crazy than we expect. Who thought nasdaq would hit five thousand? Or SPY trade at a PE of 50?

Shit's gonna be unreal on the downside too. We may get another ten percent return on the long bond this year. I am gonna buy. Full retard seems to be the only way to go nowdays

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 23:08 | 2402438 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Who would have thought 25+ STRIPS would return 50% over the last year?

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 23:15 | 2402444 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You are thinking small.

Think 10 yr yields at -3% and 30 yr yields at -1%.  

No, I don't mean real yields.  I mean nominal.

There is simply nowhere else for elderly panic to hide.  If you hold all the way down, you'll make a lot of money.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 00:36 | 2402533 Body of Lies
Body of Lies's picture

Elderly advice: Buy physical gold and sell GLD for hedge

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 01:40 | 2402596 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

And pay guards to guard it when you're 75?

What sense would that make?

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 01:56 | 2402611 Joe The Plumber
Joe The Plumber's picture

Hide it in your 75 year old ass,silly. No one is going to search a 75 year old rectum.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:55 | 2402411 JR
JR's picture

12.43pm GMT: According to NET, Andreas Loverdos has stated that if Alexis Tsipras asks for Pasok's support to form a coalition government, then the answer will be a positive one. -- from Elections 2012: Live news blog Athens News

http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/1/55385

 

With 86.2 per cent of the vote counted, this from The Hindu: Greece set for deadlock after vote against austerity (excerpts):

The two main parties that backed the bailout, the conservative New Democracy and socialist Pasok, said they would need to win the support of additional parties to form a coalition with nearly 86.2 per cent of the vote counted...

Ilias Nikolakopoulos -- the president of the software company Singular Logic, responsible for collecting the data from polling centres -- said at least a third party would be needed to form a majority coalition.

“Even if New Democracy and Pasok form a coalition, their seats will not be enough to form a majority in Parliament since it looks they will drop down to 149 to 150 seats because many of the working-class areas of Athens have still not been accounted for,” he said.

New Democracy was in first place with 19.38 per cent of the vote, or 110 seats in the 300-member Parliament, but was unable to achieve an outright majority after it saw its support drop dramatically because of widespread public anger over austerity measures.

Despite its lead, Sunday’s big winner with a surge in support since the last election was the Coalition of the Radical Left, or Syriza, headed by Alexis Tsipras, who is strongly against belt-tightening measures demanded by the European Union and International Monetary Fund (IMF). Syriza came in second with 16.47 per cent and 51 seats.

Both New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras and Tsipras called for changes to Greece’s international bailout deals.

Unlike Samaras, who is seeking to remain in the euro zone while renegotiating the terms of the bailout, Tsipras has opposed paying back Greece’s debt and is demanding the deal be scrapped.

“The people have answered our proposal to cancel the loan agreement and change the course of the public’s misery,” Tsipras said.

Pasok, the second-largest party in the outgoing coalition government, dropped to a humiliating third place with 13.48 per cent and 41 seats.

Negotiations were expected to begin Monday on forming a coalition.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/article3392641.ece

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 23:20 | 2402452 JR
JR's picture

“Greece's two-party coalition, which imposed a harsh austerity program in return for an international bail-out, has been routed, near-complete official figures show.

“The Socialist Pasok party and the conservatives of New Democracy (ND) scored just 32.4 per cent between them, plummeting from 77.4 per cent in the 2009 vote, according to interior ministry figures based on 95 per cent of the vote, early on Monday”. – thewest.com.au

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/a/-/world/13615427/greek-voters-reject-eurozone-austerity-in/

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 23:37 | 2402479 JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture
Tokyo Stock Exchange MOTHERS Index TSEMOTHR:IND

367.32 JPY 26.93 Down 6.83%

As of 22:30:15 ET on 05/06/2012.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TSEMOTHR:IND

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 23:44 | 2402491 JR
JR's picture

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/07/us-greece-election-results-idUSBRE84601S20120507

ATHENS | Sun May 6, 2012 10:13pm EDT

(Reuters) - Greece's conservative New Democracy party and Socialist rival PASOK failed to win a majority in parliament, results of 96 percent of the vote in Sunday's election showed.

The results showed the two pro-bailout parties, mauled by angry voters, won only 150 out of 300 seats in parliament.

New Democracy party was leading with about 19 percent of the vote. The socialist PASOK party was in third place, trailing the anti-bailout Left Coalition party.

Party ND LEFT C. PASOK I.Greeks KKE Golden Dawn Dem. Left

% 19.05 16.67 13.30 10.55 8.44 6.95 6.09

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 00:35 | 2402532 Body of Lies
Body of Lies's picture

TSEMOTHR down 7%+, ES down 1%

1) FED support

2) Real Dumbass Traders

3) It can't happen here, we're the biggest market in the world ... nothing touches US

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 00:51 | 2402546 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

It was criminally short sighted of the Greeks (or the EU) not to contract with Diebold.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:55 | 2402412 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

just tweeted

@W7VOA tweeted:

Asia stock dive continues (but this is NOT panic selling): HSI in Hong Kong down 2%in Monday morning trading.

Submitted -83239 secs agofrom twitter.com/W7VOA by editor

It's selling with impunity!

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 23:22 | 2402458 Mugatu
Mugatu's picture

Its always funny how bad news makes the Asian and Euro markets bounce down 2% or 3%, but the U.S. market never sells off near that much.  

Insert your conspiracy theories here.....

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 01:27 | 2402584 GNWT
GNWT's picture

Mugatu, 

 

Just the trading dance.  Most important, until the Euro-idiots get to their desks in London - should be any minute now - the colume and liquidity will pick up, just shadow boxing right now.

As Jesse L says, the real money is made on the big moves, like this one is shaping up to be.

Still can't figure if wave 1 or 3 right now, but we will know soon enough.

Note: I am a tape-reading short term trader in 1-5-60 mintute frames...

Also, the "marker" or reaction low is 2686.25 - NDX mini...we will see it again...

Stay liquid my friends...

G

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 23:34 | 2402472 chump666
chump666's picture

What is frightening is that Asian outflows have been happening for the last week or so, namley India and Indonesia.  I think it would be safe to say the Chinese behemoth is about to collapse.

The world is in a very bad place economically.  Safe Havens will be USTs and USD again. 

As far as QE3.1 just cue HUGE USD (FX) swaps to Europe. Might do nothing though, CDSs, yields, interbank spreads everything is going to blow out.  Watching for Greece about to tell the IMF/Germans to go to f*cking hell

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 01:07 | 2402503 Azwethinkweiz
Azwethinkweiz's picture

Would you take shelter from a hurricane by hiding in the fortified home of a bunch of hungry cannibals?

UST's and USD will eat you alive...but yes, they will protect you from the storm for a short while.

 

*edit: I originally said angry when I meant hungry...although, both will be very descriptive of citizens the world over by (my prediction) 2013.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 01:13 | 2402567 chump666
chump666's picture

I agree.  The market will go into a flux, yes USD/UST's will be bid, but confusion will reign.

a massive liquidation trade is about to hit.  might break 2011 lows

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 00:57 | 2402552 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

They would need a government to tell off the Germans. They will be doing nothing but that will be just as effective.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:56 | 2402414 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Seems like some people with real money (actually, that should be "shitloads of fiat crap") are getting a tad unnerved, but, surely, the Bernanke, in all his wisdom will conjure a suitable solution. Otherwise, there's an app for that, and I think it's called, "grab ankles and open wide."

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 23:01 | 2402421 JR
JR's picture

Inflation, the third way out of debt: stiff the savers.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 10:55 | 2403325 Bwahaha WAGFDSMB
Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

But inflation can't erase the unfunded liabilities.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 23:01 | 2402420 xPat
xPat's picture

...which would all but guarantee a return to the September 2012 low yields.

 

I didn't realize that it was possible to "return" to the future. Is Christopher Lloyd's Delorean involved?

xPat

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 23:09 | 2402440 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

Please, PLEASE tell me you noticed the stikeout.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 23:01 | 2402422 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

And that destroy the people's pensions...

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 23:43 | 2402487 jepicza
jepicza's picture

It's always a good idea to protect one's penisons.

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