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Treasuries Snap Longest Ever Losing Streak
During the last 31 years of the US Treasury bond rally, the 10Y interest rate has never risen for 10 consecutive days and today's very modest 1.6bps rally ensures that will continue. Yesterday's weakness equaled the previous 9-days-in-row record from 6/26/06. The rise in 10Y rates over this 10 day period equals the Oct 2011 jolt in percentage terms as we hold at those 10/28/11 swing highs in rates. The previous 8 times that 10Y rates have risen for 7 days or more, the next 10 days have seen an average 16bps compression and next 20 days a 31.5bps compression (following the consecutive break). This of course is wreaking havoc with mortgage rates as according to Bloomberg's bankrate.com data, we are back above 4% for the 30Y fixed for the first time this year and this week has seen mortgage rates jump their most in 16 months.
Falling just short of the 10 days in a row of rate rises for 10 Year Treasuries leaves us equal with the all-time record 9 consecutive days from June 2006...
and the last 10 days has seen the 10Y match the rates underperformance on a yield-basis of the Oct 2011 peak - as we hold just at those levels today...
and the last 8 times that we have managed 7 or more days in a row of yield decompression has (on average) led to notable yield compression in the following days...
And Mortgage Rates are back over 4% and have jumped their most in the last week for 16 months...
Charts: Bloomberg
(h/t John Lohman)
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This vxx is a falling machette lit on fire.
This is simply unwinding of risk-off trades. In an event of financial uncertainty, investors will pile back into US debt because of its hard-earned safe haven status. There simply is NO substitute for US debt when it comes to protecting you and your family's financial future.
Like 4eva?
There simply is NO substitute for US debt when it comes to protecting you and your family's financial future.
LMFAO!!. Hyper loss of confidence, aka inflation, coming one way or another.
Trillion(Zimbabwe)DollarAnus strikes again!
You are exactly correct ---- for anyone who might feel the need to protect their family's financial future from the growing threat of rising precious metal prices or from the risk of having their savings actually hold their real, inflation-adjusted value over time, then yes, US governmental debt would be exactly the place where you would want your savings to be.
I sincerely, fervently hope that that is exactly where all of YOUR savings are right now, MDB --- and where they will continue to remain (in nominal dollar figures, of course; who gives a flying fuck about purchasing power?)
Green on that one : D ..
and I maintain that the path to sobriety is to always have a tall Popov, straight up, at hand.
On the rocks.
Poor Ben, can't do shit right except goose IWM and now NAZ.
Didn't he SAY low rates till 2014!? douche
You made me laugh for the first time, it was the last sentence that did it for me.
me too
"You pretty funny round eye!" ~ China
I think Trillion(Zimbabwe)DollarAnus is more of a brown eye.
There simply is NO substitute for US debt when it comes to protecting you and your family's financial future. - MDB
I just pee'ed my pants...
You are the "Jesus" of trolls MDB...I salute you.
"...when it comes to protecting you and your family's financial future. "
I think he stole that line from Allstate - 'The Good Hands People'.
Of course, comedians are well known for plagiarism.
You really trust US debt? MDB? DO you really put your dollars into US treasuries? That's not exactly the kind of profitable move that someone does who actually gets a million dollar bonus for anything.
MDB IS THE ORIGINAL TROLL, not YOU... Some of your fucking comments are annoying...
LIETUVA...LIETUVA...LIETUVA!!!!!!!!!!
Meelion Dollerr Bogus, your response is perfect. The original MDB just got another one to swallow the bait, and now he is reeling you in.
Yes, but it is still fun to piss in MDB ice tea from time to time.
That's why I topped it off with the LOL icon & one of these:
http://flic.kr/p/bqr5ZG
Nazi debt was a safehaven once too.
There simply is NO substitute for US debt when it comes to protecting you and your family's financial future.
Who says that again??? A few people controlling hundreds of billion. If it was up to a vote, the US wouldn't win. China and Russia certainly don't think the US is safe anymore. Anyone with a fucking brain who isn't bribed doesn't believe that horse shit.
Your style remind me of Stephen Colbert
Exactly!
how much do you get for posting here? hope it's a bunch, cause you're going to need it if you follow the advise you're told to post here...
VXX is confirming the trend that market is minutes before flatlining.
Don't know what is scarier. The lack of volume or the lack of volatility.
Combination of both is a DEATH SENTENCE to Wall Street.
Okay I will bite...what is your definition of flatlining?
no real trades, no money actually leaving one balance sheet to support another
ergo no fees, no bonuses
ergo banks that need to orchestrate something else to make brokerage paydays
until it snaps to the downside because bills need to get paid.
March VIX settles tomorrow, tons of vol sellers all month up until this week when some decent size has come in (electronic) buying upside calls, but a bit more out (April and May). VXX doesnt exactly benefit from that/
vxx straddle/strangle
get the most out of the market swing, ratio roughly -4.11x
meaning if a 2% increase happens on the SPY you'll see the VXX swing down almost 8% (0.921835213901 or 1 / 1.08479257998). This should move enough to put a vxx put into profit for you. Similarly if SPY takes a shit-fit the vxx call will shove way way WAY high up. I'm a little trigger-happy so I sold my vxx put already. I figure waiting for the vxx call to go up with SPY slamming down some time in the next 45 days is ok. If not, meh, live & learn.
jpm strangle in play too. Tempting for a gld call, gld straddle of course would be safer, but more profit (more risk) would come from the gld call. I predict that in the next 90 days the move up should be sharp enough to justify use of a straddle/strangle but not nearly as nice as a gld call IF... if the market isn't shoved down further.
Do you ride a unicycle when you juggle your magic 8 balls?
Rocket unicycles for me, please
gold price model
top & bottom curves for recent DOW prices
brent price range projections 7 months out
earlier projection for WTI to rise
the source of my powers
Like Billy Preston says "Nothing From Nothing Leaves Nothing"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OuaG-TCpbtw
I will literally get hate in response to this, but so be it:
Rates are headed up, regardless as to what equity markets or other asset classes do.
The hatred of the political system and the politicians on both sides of the aisle is at record levels, and The Bernank is doing his PR tour because of the fact an overwhelming % (maybe a near historic or historic high) are not only pessimistic, but angry about their economic outlook.
If Bill Gross is positioned as he talks his book, he's and his herd are going to get vaporized.
@truth----if rates go up, at this stage, its temporary...ben will not print, so we are seeing some interest rate (and gold price) consquence from that.......qe3 will likely be implemented some time next year, and again we will see rates fall in conjunction with a renewal of a massive risk off wave.........
Do you actually believe this shit you write?
QE started and has not stopped, and the gold price is rigged.
youre right, qe hasnt stopped because you say so, despite the fact that money supply charts show a drop off, and gold is only rigged when going down, never when going up. believe only the stat when its in your favor. give me a shout out when gold only breaks new highs after the next lsap. until then, enjoy the gold malaise.......
and gold had an easy journey upwards until the gale force of acute deleveraging hit and ben then eased off the pedal last year.......its right there in front of your eyes.....
What a bunch of weak ass gibberish. Do you actually read anything around here or just pop in to spew this nonsense?
That's a pathetic explanation. Deleveraging? Eased off the pedal? LOL.
Trololololo...
yes only you are right because of your snarky self serving remarks....yet gold has oddly failed to make new highs for about 9 months now....hmmmmm since qe2 ended....oh yeah it's rigged because you say so....of course it wasn't rigged for the past 10 years as it went higher and higher...it's rigged now...because there is no other explanation.....right....
Please get up to speed. I've been at this gold thing for the last 15 to 20 years and have studied and read everything you could imagine. It is not "self serving" to point out the facts.
You aren't even acknowledging what is already well known in the PM sector. Sorry, but you sound close to trollish.
While deleveraging has a part, it seems clear to me the wholesale abandoment of any sensible trader out of COMEX is what has kept Gold/Silver from breaking out. Open Interest in Gold is down about 100,000 contracts from a year ago. Ben doesn't "control" everything it's all a confidence game and confidence in COMEX to deliver metal and even keep your funds safe has been lost.
Finally, the 10 year Treasuries yields bear watching. If Ben cannot keep a lid on interest rates it's game over.
Forgive me, but did I stumble onto Kitco.com only to inadvertently start reading the daily anti-gold screed of Jon Nadler by mistake? Because this all sounds remarkably like the short-sighted, and remarkably WRONG, arguments to be read from the central banksters' favorite gold-hating mouthpiece over the past five years.
Where was gold two years ago in price, and four years ago, and six years ago, and ten years ago? What do you POSSIBLY see that portends an imminent reversal of that trend? When did you see our failing and unsustainable governmental fiscal and central bank monetization trends suddenly start reversing? Are those trends not in fact getting WORSE?
I've heard of not being able to see the forest for the trees, but sometimes, certain posters here can't see the forest for their own ass.
Its kito not kitco (irony) and I don't hate gold. Without it, my teef would look terrible.........
Rates going up nominally might have a knee jerk reaction in the gold market because morons wont realize that the rates are still negative.
From 2004 to 2006, rates rose quite a bit and gold went up just as fast.
Excellent observation, Spitzer.
It cannot be restated enough times that the trend in the price of gold has virtually NOTHING to do with nominal interest rates --- and not even always anything to do with REAL interest rates, either.
Yea TIS theyre passing tyranny bills like mad and going on propaganda tours because theyre panicking about no one buying their bullshit anymore.
Here's a MSM headline about how rising interest rates will be "a good thing," since they'll vindicate improvement in the economy, posted just the other day, in what I'd argue is prepping of the sheeple (you'll find other MSM headlines such as 'refinance NOW!, too):
Surprise Increase in Rates Is Credited to Signs of Recovery
Here's another (3 hours old) implicit warning as posted on cnBSc from the Bernank's own cesspool of a mouth (and the tagline is even funny):
Economy 'Very Challenging' as Interest Rates Rise: Bernanke
Saw that too. Big difference in the interest rate for the debt slave compared to the primary dealer. Bull fucking shit, end ZIRP then assholes.
You tell me, who actually adds real value to the system?
Truth I just took a dump and thought about it and I don't buy it. Everyone knows the end game is inflation gets out of hand, the fed is forced to print and buy bonds to keep rates low, inflation gets even more out of hand, rinse, repeat. Currency crisis follows that.
There is a reason they did not stress test the banks for a rise in rates. It's because they will do everything in their power to ensure that it does not happen. So you say we are at the point now where the tables get completely turned? Was the 30yr not at 4.75% this time last year, only to come slamming down on everyone? If you are right we are at the end game. I don't know that we are there yet.
That's fine. I'm just pointing out that there's a choke point that appears to be affecting public opinion based on the state of rising prices (in real, observable ways by the masses), and that nothing goes on forever.
Those are the same people who said Fuki disaster is "bullish" ....
Yea TIS theyre passing tyranny bills like mad and going on propaganda tours because theyre panicking about no one buying their bullshit anymore.
And folks are waking up,FINALLY.
Bond market drove Greece into insolvency. Rates can go up only if Ben starts talking about haircuts immediately after.
Everyone knows that US debt has the same life expectancy as Greece. The US is younger perhaps, but not immune to death.
HARP 2.0 kicked in Mar. 17, removing the 125% loan-to-value to refinance through Freddie and Fannie, with 1.6 MM estimated to take advantage of the program. More toxic debt please!
TIN I usually agree with you but...Rates are heading down. Whenever there is a shock and there will be one, people will still run towards the burning house (treasuries) instead of away from it.
That is the same logic that made DOW 36,000 make sense back in 2000.
People will run into Treasuries only until they don't. It is naive and pollyanna to assume that the US Treasury bond is the safest form of money there is.
People? There aren't any people buying Treasurys now, let alone later.
It is naive to assume that Benron isn't buying every note issued via one proxy or another.
TINA told me.
I dont know anyone who buys Treasuries.
I know one and he's really gross.
The Voice of Tinkerbell, you mean?
fonzanoon - Who will buy USTs in sufficient quantity when it's necessary to flatten the yield curve for any time frame amounting to noticeable, let alone significant?
RIGHT - The Federal Reserve is the only answer anyone can provide, and I am saying right here and right now that that won't even be an option (for a variety of reasons) for Bernanke whether he wants to be the buyer of last resort or not.
More importantly, how has flattening the yield curve so far bia QE/TWIST tamped inflation? It's done just the opposite.
Inflation is going to crucify the Fed's credibility (it's already begun to; hence The Bernank & his PR tour). Any effort to stem that inflation doing more treasury buying would be akin to an act of full retard, since that activity has been significantly responsible for the inflation (spoken of or not) that's already taken deep root.
They will not stem inflation. They will continue to deny it. Keep changing the metrics if they have to. Inflation however is what is going to stall the "recovery" and eati into the consumer and corporate profits etc. etc etc. Once the economy stalls again people will exit this BS risk asset run up lately and go to where they know, IG corporates and treasuries.
Like someone else said, they will until they won't...nut my guess is for now they will.
But no one is buying their inflation disinformation. Do you honestly think that Joe Six Pack or the average grandma or grandpa doesn't realize that inflation is on a tear? Have you noticed that average people are bitching about gas and grocery prices in ways not seen in some of our lifetimes?
Bennie is going to jawbone about possible future QE until his bluff is called, and it will be called very soon.
Few people are, you are correct. But few people really understand the gravity of the situation. If they did you would see a violent shift. Maybe it's coming. You might be right.
Yeah, most of the boiled frogs STILL look at it purely as "rising prices" and not as the situation actually is, a falling dollar.
It's not even semantics to them, though.
A falling dollar IS inflation as they see it and experience it.
Yes, but it shifts the blame from the falling dollar onto those (to them) mysteriously rising prices.
They should NOT be asking "Why are prices rising?", they should be asking "Why is the dollar falling?"
I understand the mechanism that is the causation that you're referring to, but there's not a chance in your lifetime or mine that people staring at peanut butter or gas pumps are going to think about "a falling dollar" versus "WTFpriceWTFFFFF!!!!!!!!!!!!'
More fundamentally, it doesn't actually matter, because a falling dollar actually IS inflation (I should have written that in my prior post) in reality, under a fiat currency dilutive fractional reserve banking system.
I don't really disagree with you on any particular here, TIS --- I just like to always (try to) make people (meaning the boiled frogs) realize the reality of the monetary situation. Focusing on rising prices can and often does shift the blame onto retailers and the supply chain, unfairly, for example --- ANYTHING to keep the blame from where it REALLY belongs, on the politicians and central banksters.
It is sad isn't Akak. Most people will look at everything costing 5 times as much as it did 10 years ago and blame it on the greedy corporations.
Personally I think it is nearly impossible for people to realize that the price of goods is going up because of the falling purchasing power of the dollar. I think first you have to break their notion that their is a fixed amount of money in the system. Once they understand that they can usually follow the logic of why prices are going up.
Yep even my folks who were huge Obama supporters and 'liberals' or whatever are saying things BLOW right now.
ZIRP4EVA!
I was noting that the first chart was marking tops.
fonzannoon I dont agree with your apparent premise that you either buy stocks, or bonds, and thats it.
Oh man Sheep, like I said, if you bought gold you did more than well. You actually make my point for me, I say stick with what works, and that has worked. I say don't complicate things (ie: shorting treasuries).
Yea thats for sure, shorting the Maniacal Monetizers while theyre sopping up every bond in sight wasnt a great plan.
Without the Fed, the treasury market has no bid (see any sovereign bond and CDS). You assume that the rest of the world will essentially "allow" America to become Japan while retaining the reserve currency. I'll take the contrarian position, but won't commit to a timeline, just yet. Waiting to see how Iran goes.
I'd just point out that the U.S. can't do what Japan did - via capturing the savings of its civilian population to fund deficits, since Americans' savings rates and wealth are actually net negative, whereas the Japanese had monumental savings and rates of ongoing savings in real terms, especially when you trace back to surplus Japan circa-1989.
Hence, The Fed has thus far had to steal assumed future savings of the American Population to fund deficit monetization, which isn't working out real well for them in terms of concealing inflation or winning any popularity contests.
Japan didn't have the "reserve" currency either.
So how is that relevant? Are you stating that Japanese had fewer avenues of diversifying or exchanging their fiat for assets that would more likely increase in value over time?
(I'm wondering...)
We also have considerably more hard assets than Japan. The "reserve" currancy is more a statement on our military might, which, as far as I can tell is tha only reason the dollar has any sort of status at all. just like greece, I see the resources and physical assets of the U.S. being sold out from under the people for pennies on the SDR. Lots of shit can go down on paper, it is that bit when the rubber meets the road when things get interesting.
for me, I am simply wondering why in the hell I swallowed the red pill.
I agree that having the petro-currency (that our military and the wake of WWII allowed) has provided certain benefits to Americans in a fractional reserve banking planned global economy.
I was just making the point that Japan had a large savings 'fat reserve' back in 1989, with Japanese citizens replenishing it dutifully through savings that were greater than consumption, that Japanese policy makers could essentially take in order to fund deficit spending for quite some time, whereas that option really isn't on the table for U.S. policy makers. We last had a national surplus in the 1960s, and I'm not even sure as to when the bulk of Americans had net positive real wealth, let alone any appreciable savings rate.
And edit - I just now, belatedly, caught your point about Japan being natural resource poor in comparison to the U.S., and even given everything I stated, I can't disagree with you on that.
If people don't run to treasuries and people don't run to gold, then where do they run?
Apple apparently
and Wal Mart.
Check all-time high firearm and ammo sales.
SD1 now there is hope and change we can HOLD on to.
Well, one thing would be for sure, everyone would be a lot more polite.
Check all-time high firearm and ammo sales.
http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=JVAhr4hZDJE&vq=medium#t=19
This hit the Tube 4 days ago, and over 6 Million hits, maybe some sheeple are waking up...........from the OSU College in Norman.
Complete and utter bullshit.
Americans haven't been free since at least 1913.
Free thinking people? Who the heck are they kidding?
Obama is the biggest corporate crony plant in the history of this country. 2nd only to Bush. That's the truth.
DosZap,
Repugnantcan claptrap. George Bush pursued exactly the same policies as the present puppet-in-chief. That video made me ill. Sickening hypocrisy. Damn these two parties.
BEnnie boy better be careful on his new dog n pony show circuit. People might want to use their new investments on him.
Oil apparently.
Those with the means hunker down and stay liquid, and a few of these smarter people even get at least some exposure to real, quality hedges like gold (i'd argue oil, too, as much as it pains me to recognize the gravity of the situation), if they haven't already - worse case scenario is they get to pass real money to their kids or grandkids (just as David Stockman stated a week ago).
Those without means, and who haven't prepared for the storm get blown whichever way the winds take them.
I agree with you in principle. I agree with the information presented here. I also think if you were to have acted on it (outside of just buying gold) you probably would have had your ass handed to you ten times over. Especially shorting treasuries.
Just ask PIMCO.
Awesome....rise interest rates, RISE! LOL this is going to be hillarious....as soon as these ZIRP idiots realize they have to pay a speck of rising interest the whole game is over.
The old game ended 4 years ago.
Patching up holes in the hull with paper isn't going to keep the boat from sinking.
There is NO way out. The end of America was sealed when the USSR bankrupted itself because it overspent on military expansion. America was declared the "winner" of the Cold War and was able to preserve a certain "Primus inter Pares" status because the allegiances of old made it so.
But times have changed. There is no imminent threat to the world order by a great enemy that would warrant the status to be kept. It's all up for grabs if you look closely. China's economy is growing and will match US GDP in 2020 (only 8 years from now). Russia (the enemy of old) is cozing up with China pretty strong. Europe is either hostile to the US or indifferent at best. The old friendships have dried up.
Do you realize how much of current US wealth and status is depending on the prestige and power that was established over some 100 years ago? All that is fading and the US is actually self destructing or imploding (from the inside). That ridiculous threat of terrorism has been massively overplayed and is annoying people everywhere. The biggest terrorist threat is the US itself.
Down for the count.
The desperate thrashing and dying gasps of an overextended empire in terminal decline --- it is ugly to behold.
Mason jars
Operation TWIST is about to end and no country can and/or wants to buy treasuries. On top of that Iran is not accepting dollars anymore, so the demand for dollars is decreasing. Japan will probably have to sell treasuries and buy gold to exchange it for oil.Interest rates are under pressure here.
Therefore,
1) The FED will do something. I don't care if they call it POOPOO or QE xtra.
2 ) war with Iran almost inevitable. Iran is not responding to neither bribes nor intimidation.
2200 Iran knew when they stop trading oil for dollars and took ze gold, they were messing with the boyz behind the black curtain, just like Iraq and Libya. They are either bluffing or just wanting to be screwed with, dunno, but we will see soon.
If Iran had an out, they would have taken it by now, but I think Israel closed that door.
I hope they're messing good. Maybe it will hit the "boyz behind the black curtain" right between the eyes or at least between their legs.
xela, for your information, Obama signed an executive order giving permission to Japan and 10 European Nations to conduct commerce with Iran (because of oil).
That is further evidence of the bind The Bernanke & U.S. political incumbents are in.
US gives exemption on Iran sanctions to 11 nations*ps - Yeah, I didn't realize he was King of the World, either.
Where is the money going that is coming out of treasuries ??
Gold --> Oil?
Government spending?
Rushia, China, Japan selling to buy resources?
Who knows, but something is going on. There is stench of desperation in the air.
Here? US firearms sales hit all-time high on Black Friday | Army & Land Forces News at DefenceTalk
At this point, who doesn't own a fire arm? The gun range is ALWAYS full.
a few libs probably, but here we got democrats (a lot) taking CCW classes out of town so people they know won't see them locally. Go figure.
But Dennis Henigan, acting president of the Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence, said "there may be no real significance at all" to the Black Friday surge.
"It's possible that gun companies are just catching on to creating a Black Friday frenzy for themselves," he said.
LOL, wishful thinking you IDIOT.
Where is the money going that is coming out of treasuries ??
**************
Money funds have been turning up the last while-that would likely account for some-
http://bit.ly/GCvUJz
Updates on PIMCO? Gross might be puking around, you don't wanna miss that!
Surely, higher mortgage rates must be good for the housing recovery. It's bottomed according to all the experts, right?
Surely!
Agreed! I was on the fence about buying a house when mortgage rates were at all time lows. Now that rates are going up and I now have less disposable income(thanks to 4$ gas) and all my savings is in AAPL I think i'll overextend myself again! thanks uncle benny and timmay!
There goes my Oil is the new UST thesis.
Energy got killed today too.
Blame the speculators. White Sheik Knights are going to save the US from 5$/gallon gas.
Prep work?
They are running out of false villains to point to for rising oil & food prices, and the awareness that loose monetary policy is the underlying cause has already seeped into the public consciousness, even if individuals can't articulate the whys and whats.
If I were a filthy political strategist (redundant), and I worked for the one evil side of the paradigm of false choices, being the GOP (make no mistake, I detest the Demoncrats absolutely as much), I would paint Bernanke as public enemy number one on oil & food inflation, and try to come up with a simple pictorical that demonstrates the relationship between tnote buying and recirculation of those funds by the Fed and rising oil/food prices.
I wonder if the reason we have not and won't see this by the frontrunner of the GOP is because they're puppets of Wall Street and the banking lobby, too, since they're no different from Pelosi's gang in this regard? /sarc
They have not even gotten around to hammering the "speculators". You know the evil people who put their money in unproductive assets like metals. This still has a way to go and a lot of false villans to get.
the note is @ 128
the bond is @ 135.75
benzelbub is just playing with the console behind the curtain
trust me
Did you know that one of four main reasons for the Great Depression was the Gold Standard?
"Four main causes of the Depression. Economic and financial repercussions of World War 1, gold standard, the stock market bubble and financial panic and the collapse of major banks, Bernanke said. On top of that was the philosophy among the nation's elite that the Depression was needed tonic to cure the excesses of the 1920s."
Bernanke trashes gold standard in lecture
Yeah, what were they thinking, that excesses need to be cured with some kind of retraction? In the brave new modern world, we realize that all that is needed to cure excess is more excess. Hair of the dog, baby!
Troglodytes with their 'morals'. They deserved every bit of suffering the depression brought them. Morals are for saps without a virtual printing press.
Funny how the gold standard NEVER led to depressions before the era of central banking.
bingo! central banking = centrally organized theft of labor, talents and all human value. biggest crime of all.
Or maybe they just mispriced the gold.
Either way, I don't know if we should go back to a gold standard or not. I am not that smart. One thing is for sure though. We need sound money that can't be manipulated. I don't care if it is gold, coco beans or cigarettes.
Did you know that one of four main reasons for the Great Depression was the Gold Standard?
***************
If Bernake had a clue-he would know there was no gold standard leading up to the depression-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qi3zLKCm7DE
Wow, do we actually have something on which we can more or less agree?
Yes, there was still a tortured and mangled quasi-semi-hemi-gold standard in place up until the 1930s, but it was clearly just as perverted, manipulated and unsustainable as the dollar-based Bretton Woods monetary system that followed it.
Wow, do we actually have something on which we can more or less agree
************
Maybe we do-but here's likely where we part ways again-
They did not issue more dollars (FRNs) when that double counting took place-in the US they issued credit to banks only-calling the new credits (SDR's) and banks issued credit-in the form of extreme low margin requirements which goosed the stock markets and flowed back into the economy ie" the inflationary 20's-there was even a Florida housing bubble and over investment i rail and other areas-
Then as always-the pool of greater fools dried up and exhaustion hit and then came the crash-the deflationary crash-
Roosevelt also increased the money supply with more gold price manipulation and governments holding/manipulating prices up with trade barriers etc.and other than some dead cat bounces-deflation persisted and that's where i believe we're going before we see a currency crises in the US-
imo--Japan will be the currency to watch for the first crack in fiat currencies to occur and when that will be i do not know-
Wow, do we actually have something on which we can more or less agree
************
Maybe we do-but here's likely where we part ways again-
They did not issue more dollars (FRNs) when that double counting took place-in the US they issued credit to banks only-calling the new credits (SDR's) and banks issued credit-in the form of extreme low margin requirements which goosed the stock markets and flowed back into the economy ie" the inflationary 20's-there was even a Florida housing bubble and over investment i rail and other areas-
Then as always-the pool of greater fools dried up and exhaustion hit and then came the crash-the deflationary crash-
Roosevelt also increased the money supply with more gold price manipulation and governments holding/manipulating prices up with trade barriers etc.and other than some dead cat bounces-deflation persisted and that's where i believe we're going before we see a currency crises in the US-
imo--Japan will be the currency to watch for the first crack in fiat currencies to occur and when that will be i do not know-
Based on the level of Japan's per capita public debt, that would seem the logical assumption --- yet they have amazingly managed to keep several trillion balls in the air for over 20 years now. I suspect that they will not be able to indefinitely do so, though.
Based on the level of Japan's per capita public debt, that would seem the logical assumption --- yet they have amazingly managed to keep several trillion balls in the air for over 20 years now. I suspect that they will not be able to indefinitely do so, though.
**********
Yes-the difference i think about Japans 20 years of printing was that the rest of the world was in a credit induced inflation driven asset bubble and we were buying everything Japan could produce and so their economy was robust and and GDP outflow was positive-
Now-with export trade diminishing and boomer demographics (bond withdrawls) and the deficit spending that now has all the savings squandered -it does not bode well for their bond market and the need to service a 230% debt to GDP will be brutal-
The thing about a currency crises-IMO- is that it does not matter which major currency goes first-because once it starts it will rip through all of them in a contagion type of sell off-
Gold will be the only thing that can stop it and the first market forced panic by any major central bank to weight currency to gold will force all of them into it because the rush into a gold weighted currency will be the kiss of death to any of them who do not compete-
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Yes, I find it VERY hard to imagine that a crisis or collapse in any one major fiat currency (US dollar, euro, yen, yuan) would not RAPIDLY spread to all the others ---- maybe in a matter of just hours, even minutes. Flash crash, currency style.
I've often wondered whether a collapse in any major fiat currency today would not play out as a re-wind of the early 1930s, in which one nation moving back to some form of a gold standard would not compel all the others to successively do the same in short order. My one real fear, though, is that the bastards will just make another pseudo-try at it again like the Bretton Woods Agreement, effectively using gold as money between governments and central banks, while prohibiting its use or possession among the population. It is this scenario, in fact more than any other, that keeps me up at night.
My one real fear, though, is that the bastards will just make another pseudo-try at it again like the Bretton Woods Agreement, effectively using gold as money between governments and central banks, while prohibiting its use or possession among the population. It is this scenario, in fact more than any other, that keeps me up at night.
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I wouldn't be surprised they would try something like that-if they thought they could get away with it and watch us starve-but-if international settlement between governments was gold-then people/the eventual consumer and labor source for exports would have to be paid in gold to my way of thinking-so that they could purchase and pay so the governments/bankers would have an inflow/outflow of gold supply-
We work-we consume and we pay-but honestly-the way things are going i wouldn't put anything past them-
The CHF-before the manipulation was a perfect example of the strength of a gold backed currency against all paper-even if the gold link was nothing more than a psychological one-
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Yes, the Swiss Franc, although far from perfect, or as sound as it had been pre-1936, was a relative rock of stability up until 2000, when the insidious IMF and their banking lackies finally pressured the Swiss into removing the implicit gold backing of the currency via a public referenda in which a vastly disproportionate effort and amount of money was spent to pressure them into supporting the measure, despite the prescient warnings of the late great Ferdinand Lips, and to their everlasting shame and regret.
"Because gold is honest money, it is disliked by dishonest men."
-Ron Paul, The Case for Gold
BBBBAAAAWWWWAAAAHHHHHAAAAAAA
Don't worry, congress is trying hard to pass the JOBS act, aka the Let's extend the fraud act of 2012 :
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/william-k-black/jobs-act_b_1366565.html?re...
BONDS/MUNI.BONDS/ COLLEGE TUITIONS= 3 NEXT BUBBLES ABOUT TO POP...
The new PIIGS are ASS(es) = Anglo-Saxon Sovereigns.
At least then all according to "English Law", right? LOLOLO
Bullish for the Free Market forces. When the mortgage rates correct to their historic median of 7.5%, house prices will correct the same time.....lower.
Houses will be more affordabel to those 99% with stagnant wages for the past 10 years.
Are you saying that the $12/hour manager at McDonald's can finally own his home?
DREAMER!!!
I've been watching a documentary about the last hours onboard Costa Fortuna.
The ship actually had a pretty good chance to avoid the collision with the rocks. It sailed too fast for the shallow water, taking too long to avoid the rocks.
Righting the ship and correcting course took too long. The ship hit rock and started taking water. Ship then drifted out to sea before being pushed back to shore by the wind. Had it capsized further from shore it would have sunk and hundreds more would have died.
Watching this and looking at the unfortunate Commandante Schetino, I feel reminded of Captain Bernanke and his futile last ditch attempts to correct a course. The ship hit rock 4 years ago. Has drifted sideways for a bit and is now being blown back to shore by the forces of nature.
There she will finally sink but giving many people a chance to swim to safety, barely escaping with nothing but their naked lives. Initially there will be chaos as all try to climb aboard the rescue boats. Some make it and others don't get onboard quick enough.
The last orders of Commandante Schetino were "Abandon ship" when all other attempts were exhausted.
Captain Bernanke has no choice but to declare "Abanondon ship" to Americans once certain day. At least giving people the chance to getting away with their lives. Their belongings will go down and become unusable after she takes on too much water. No restoration outfit in the world can restore the loss of confidence in any US paper.
Nice!
But, but,but......Bob Pisani said, "dont worry--be happy" its no problem" And, the (dye his hair and beard) Najarian pimp said, "the bif ibstitutins will rush in and buy cat." Now tell me that freal didn't go long cat calls in the am!?
I amazed what that fucking show lets these criminals get away with!
"Higher rates are good for the market because ALL the sideline money will rush in at once"
I think the whores are getting nervous thatthe Chinese are dumping and there wont be anywhere for them to offload their positions. Imagine the Chins start to short the ES? I would drink a martini and dance. And, I don't drink.
I despise their crooked ruse.
I'm surprised that no one at cnbc has ever been assasinated. Serious...............
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That fucking Fed shill LIESman needs to be the first.
I like the image of Gallagher smashing in his head with a sledgehammer like a watermelon --- except, unlike a watermelon, there will be very little inside to squirt out, and most of that will probably just be paper anyway.
A sign of things to come? Let's see if it sustains.
Great comment thread tonight.
Lies-Man and that foul-smelling yellow pedophile from "Sin City" could be twins...
http://www.virginmedia.com/images/1comicbaddies-gal-bastard.jpg
http://www.zimbio.com/pictures/CJS1C4lNL3j/Meet+The+Press/q8nlq0Hq547/St...
are you saying the yield will continue to rise?
http://www.cnhedge.com/
http://www.jinrongbaike.com/