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Treasury Forecasts $447 Billion In Funding Needs Thru End Of September - $300 Billion Shy Of Trendline

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Earlier today, the Treasury forecast that in the third and fourth fiscal quarter of 2012 (April-September), the US would need a total of $447 billion in new debt (split $182 billion in Q3 and $265 billion in Q4), bringing the total debt balance to just over $16 trillion by the end of September. While this is a commendable forecast, and one which certainly has provided to alleviate rumors that the US debt ceiling of $16.4 trillion would be breached by the mid/end of September, the chart below shows that it may be just a tad optimistic. 

First of all, here is what the Treasury just predicted:

  • During the April - June 2012 quarter, Treasury expects to issue $182 billion in net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $95 billion.  This borrowing estimate is $19 billion lower than announced in January 2012.  The decrease is primarily due to projections of lower outlays and higher issuances of State and Local Government securities, partially offset by lower receipts.
  • During the July - September 2012 quarter, Treasury expects to issue $265 billion in net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $95 billion.
  • During the January - March 2012 quarter, Treasury issued $401 billion in net marketable debt, and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $43 billion.  In January 2012, Treasury estimated $444 billion in net marketable borrowing and assumed an end-of-March cash balance of $30 billion.  The higher cash balance and lower borrowing were driven primarily by lower-than-projected outlays and higher net issuances of State and Local Government Securities.

And the actual sources and uses:

So far so good.

The only problem is that when one superimposes the projected debt issuance with the historical one. Now obviously we are all for the US needing less debt, however we wonder: did the US discover some magical source of tax revenue: last we checked the companies with $100+ billion in cash were paying virtually zero taxes, and US workers were making less and less courtesy of more and more jobs being converted into temp jobs with lower wages, and less withheld tax as a result. And unless we missed some grand reconciliation in D.C., our elected representatives were pushing for more spending, not less... So maybe someone smarter than us can explain how the trendline of debt issued to date, and the forecasted debt differ by a cumulative $300 billion over the next 5 months?

 


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Mon, 04/30/2012 - 16:54 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Time for currency reset

 

$1,000,000 USD = $1

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 16:58 | Link to Comment Eclipse89
Eclipse89's picture

$1,000,000 USD = 1 gold oz
Fixed.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:02 | Link to Comment SilverTard
SilverTard's picture

I would have a heart attack on the spot.... and if not I would be off to buy an island.  :)

 

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:09 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

I would still have a metal in favor of a larger pile of printed paper.

dont get me wrong! a nice huge run and I would have to dump some! (not ALL!!) to be able to buy more when it came back down.

Get as much metal as you can without putting your self at risk.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:48 | Link to Comment Mark123
Mark123's picture

What happens when they open the Fort Knox vaults and find nothing but a flash drive with $250 billion digital federal reserve serial numbers on it?

 

 

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 19:29 | Link to Comment SelfGov
SelfGov's picture

I laughed at this like I laugh at Peter Griffin's little testicular chin.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:14 | Link to Comment RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

No you wouldnt. Thats what you PM bugs dont get. If gold hits $1mm an oz its ONLY because the SPX is at 2,000,000 and that island costs 10 gazillon. Unless you own it with leverage. The people that benefit from inflation are the most levered and those makig 2/20 on nominal returns.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:42 | Link to Comment Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

If gold hits $1mm an oz its ONLY because the SPX is at 2,000,000

 

I agree!   Sort of like in 1999 when it took 47 ounces of gold to buy 1 DOW and now it takes less than 10....Oh wait, I don't think that proves your point...

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 20:04 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

+1. use arrows for above. italics at start of post block your arrows.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 20:08 | Link to Comment Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

like the bellhop who bought the hotel he used to work at for 1 gold coin during the weimar inflation?  Is that what you mean?

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 00:27 | Link to Comment SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"Thats what you PM bugs dont get."

This is what you ANTI gold blind faithers don't get - you're expecting the gold/dow/land ratios to remain absolutely locked - but they won't.  Gold is portable, and has mass recognized value at a time of hyper inflation - that island, and those stocks, not so much.  Expect a LOT of decoupling when this thing finally snaps.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:16 | Link to Comment ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Tyler, thank you for placing me as a contributor.  To answer your question as to how required funding has dropped so dramatically, please refer to my previous posts about how much better the economy is doing and the vast number of jobs that are being created.  Thanks again.

Sincerely, Bob Brusca

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 16:58 | Link to Comment SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

What's a couple hundred billion amongst thieves? 

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:01 | Link to Comment nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

I don't know if they built it in, but as companies use up their tax loss carryforwards they would pay more tax.

But I would guess they are just plain old telling lies.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:02 | Link to Comment Stackers
Stackers's picture

Dont we have a 2012 budget to tell us this stuff ? Oh yeah, we dont. or 2013 or 2011 or 2010. Budget ? We dont need no stink'n budget !

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:09 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Years without a budget....damn banana republic....and people believe they really have a PLAN! lol

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:20 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

The plan is that future generations will be able to raise GDP and pay back the loans. We promise...
So as long as they stick to their part of the deal in 2040, all will be well...

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 19:11 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL, 'future generations' will pay back a few quadrillion how exactly....with a sign spinning job at $6/hour?

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 19:31 | Link to Comment SelfGov
SelfGov's picture

When a tomato costs $10,000 I will be able to grow away our debt in a season or two :)

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 20:10 | Link to Comment Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

tomato's from topsy-turvy planters will command a much higher price

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:01 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

It will be revised after the 2nd Tuesday in November....have a nice day.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:04 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

I bet it never reaches the debt ceiling before the elections....both sides do not want that....

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:20 | Link to Comment RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Of course the Republicans want that! Why do you think they passed the tax cut extension with no payfor?

The debt ceilimg debate gets the Tea Party fired up, which is what one us the House and a blocking vote in the Senate. It puts the focus squarely on spending and the failures of this president.

I dont think the Treasury would issue numbers that prove to be $400bbn off 6 months from now BUT I REALLY HOPE THEY ARE!!!

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:21 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

And after the elections it will be: suddenly... Unaccounted.... Out of the blue... Bush fault...

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 20:12 | Link to Comment Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

Will Obama be able to hold the ponzi together so he can hand it off to the next corruptor, bush wasn't able to ... close but September happened.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 19:15 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Why dont they want it, Youngman? Why do the politicians give a shit? What are they worried about, the sheeple getting all angry? Why should they, they dont give a crap about anything up to this point and besides who will do anything about it anyway?

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:07 | Link to Comment WatchingIgnorance
WatchingIgnorance's picture

The numbers are getting harder and harder to fudge. Imagine getting checkmated by math. We just didn't get that out of the schools fast enough.

Consume, America, consume!!! This is your fault!

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:08 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well hell, whats the trouble? Ben, just put your fat finger on that 'print' button and git er done there fuktard!

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:37 | Link to Comment Mark123
Mark123's picture

my thought exactly.  Why continue with the charade of debt based fiat....by definition if the "debt" cannot be repaid then it is deemed a gift.  Our government loves gift giving (to bankers).

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:09 | Link to Comment Straw Dog
Straw Dog's picture

You have to believe that:

a) Actual debt issuance will follow the trendline

b) Somehow it will be fudged so that the debt ceiling is not reached before election time

However it looks like a close race to the finishing line.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 19:13 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OH yes its all very much high drama and etc etc there Straw Dog!

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 00:33 | Link to Comment SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

And that finish line is a debt cliff that both parties are racing to hurl us off of.  Maybe when we explode on the bottom like Wiley Coyote in some cartoon, we'll finally dust ourselves off and vote in Ron Paul, and 535 more like him?

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:10 | Link to Comment tgatliff
tgatliff's picture

Geithner apparently opted to take the blue pill....

My assumption has always been that if Obama wins, then there will attempt to raise the debt ceiling during the lame duck session by trying to force a government "shutdown" argument.   If we see a fair amount of turnover in this upcoming election, then I think it is reasonable to assume that this would increase their chances of pushing something thru.   Judging from the way that Washington works, however, I doubt anything has been planned in the event that Romney is elected...

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:10 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Some new IOU's in the SS 'trust fund" maybe ?

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:34 | Link to Comment Mark123
Mark123's picture

We have a trust fund?????!!!!!  Don't tell Wall Street.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:15 | Link to Comment RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Use the last data point in the series as the exit point for the trendline and you get a lot closer to the forcast.

Just sayin....

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 18:23 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

That is because the "exit point" excludes a deferred $57 addition to the historical data as of last week's auctions, and which has been deferred through today due to debt settlement delays. You will see the historical data jump substantially tomorrow when it is incorporated. At that poin the trendline will be precisely where it should be.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 21:02 | Link to Comment Curt W
Curt W's picture

The week of April 16 to April 20, The official US debt actually went down.  Then it popped back up.  Somebody paid their taxes this year.  The last data point on the chart is a tax day anomaly

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:16 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Probably the best news they could squeeze out of it...
As long as Obama doesn't watch ShopTV, it might turn out less bad...
Did visa reply already on that limit increase on the visas yet? Maybe we should call them back because they lost our telephone number...

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Mark123
Mark123's picture

hmmm...we could spend a lot of time trying to pick apart this forecast.  Or, better yet, just ignore anything these crooks say, and pull the cork out of a nice full-bodied bottle of Sonoma Cabernet and get pleasantly bombed.

 

 

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 17:58 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

GE pays less (none) taxes than the CEO's secretary. Fuck you BUFFETT

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 00:37 | Link to Comment SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

But, but, Warren is the friend of the common man!

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 19:14 | Link to Comment sitenine
sitenine's picture

Consequently, one can directly derive the perceived street value of government issued hopium and delusionol from the above graph. Thanks Tyler.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 19:50 | Link to Comment Robslob
Robslob's picture

 

 

Suckers...I have the ANSWER:

Buffet will finally pay back taxes after over 67 years of stealing from the US government

Bill Gates will follow in paying 50 years of back taxes

Larry Ellison will finally find God and pay his back taxes as well.

Then all Politicians AND Government Employees will FINALLY chip in and pay their fair share too!

 

ALL FIXED BITCHEZ!

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 19:51 | Link to Comment Robslob
Robslob's picture

 

CORPORATIONS...uh, NOT SO MUCH

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 20:19 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

What's the problem? Why start distrusting the blubbermint from telling the truth and being 100% accurate in their forecasts?

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 20:23 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

How can you not love this site. YOu guys are funny. 16, 17, 18 Trillion. Does not make any difference. It all will go Poof at the same moment. And then, we can start over, like we should have in 2008. Still hard to believe not one of these fraud scum has gone to jail. Not ONE!

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 21:16 | Link to Comment Imminent Collapse
Imminent Collapse's picture

Corzine went to jail, right? Oh. But he's going to, right? What! The depositors agreed in the fine print to subordinate their funds on deposit to MFGlobal's general creditors? Oh. So Corzine was just doing what he was contractually authorized to do. Then why is he in hiding? Pitchforks? Oh.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 21:19 | Link to Comment Curt W
Curt W's picture

How to make your government sweat in 2 easy steps.

!. Tomorrow change your W4 to 9 dependents.

2. If your income is from Capital gains, estimate a loss next quarter, and mail zero tax.

By november they will be in full sweat mode as tax revenues dwindle to zero.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 22:37 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

What I keep wondering is that with interest rates on the 2-year at just .29%, and interest costs at nearly $500 billion per year, what happens when interest rates rise to just 2%? Won't that bankrupt the US Treasury and put every American in the poorhouse? That endgame looks like a very ugly one -- soon!

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 00:41 | Link to Comment SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

They CAN'T let this happen - they will defend ZIRP til they can't any longer - how long will that be - 1 year, 2 years, 6 months?  When the US falls off the cliff, what will happen to the 'reserve currency?'  Meanwhile TPTB plot the takeover after the reset.  R U ready?

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