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Treasury Yields Drop Most In 5 Months As Market Reacts, Equity Futures Slide
Risk-Off. Treasury yields dropped around 12bps across the curve from pre-NFP as the 10Y yield drops the most in 5 months. Equity futures are down the most in a month (20pts off pre-NFP levels) and testing lows as they catch up to credit weakness. IG credit is testing 100bps for the first time in over 2 months and HY credit is back over 600bps - its widest in 3 months. Gold has popped $10 or so to over $1640 and it appears we have a new FX regime with USD weakness implying market weakness as JPY strength (on repatriation and carry unwinds back to one-month highs) is the most impressive (and AUD weakness for same reason). EURUSD is leaking higher as is swissy, as the EUR-USD swap spread model converges on EURUSD's fair-value. Of course markets are thin, but ES (the S&P 500 e-mini futures) is trading relatively actively and testing lows once again as they close - not pretty at all as ES ends the week with the heaviest 3-day loss in four months (perhaps notably ending at 2011's May high print level).
ES (the S&P 500 e-mini futures) has seen it largest 3-day drop in 4 months and closed pretty much at 2011's May highs...
And 10Y Treasury yields have dropped their most in over five months in the last 3 days, breaking back below the 200DMA (on yield)...
Charts: Bloomberg
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So Goldman was right!!! wink wink
Aren't they always, at least that is the federal governments position..
you mean the Ferderal reserve goverments position
Well, it is long overdue. Maybe we will start to get some reality in the markets. Lets see how long it lasts.
The reality is that this has been planned all along. In just 99 years, the Federal Reserve has taken the US dollar and debased it to nothingness. There is but a fraction of the purchasing power left compared to when this great ponzi scheme began. The banks and the fed have done a marvelous job in destroying our future.
Here is what I am telling my nearest and dearest in regards to what I am doing to prepare for the coming paper storm:
http://strayingfromtheflock.org/2012/04/05/an-open-letter-to-my-friends/
This is what I am doing. What are you doing to prpare your family?
Futures sliding... That is the understatement of the day
But, but, that would mean Notorious B.I.I.G.S. was co-co-co-rrect in re-re-reducing his longs? Didn't he even say he was going short a couple of days ago?
Nice to see gold and silver green post-NFP.
So arguably the biggest economic indicator was a big miss. With no QE on the table (for now), LTRO 3 not happening...What exactly is the bullish case for equities? Queue Cramer telling everyone to "buy the dip" and that "stocks are still cheap."
People are buying those treasuries now so they can sell them back to Ben later?
If there's one thing the Fed will buy, it's Treasuries.
Because paper and promises that are called TREASURE are more valuable that REAL treasure (gold).
Wake up. It's the plan. Ben gets lower rates for his bloated balance sheet and the market gets a higher low soon. As far as can kicking the plan is working perfectly. Ben is the master of the solar system!
Gold has no societal value. If it reached a point where it threatened function of the system, transactions of it, buy or sell, would be taxed at 70%, globally. And that would be that for gold. You could not transact in cash secretly because you would never know if your counterparty is undercover law enforcement.
Treasuries are bought because there is no other game of size in town to hide in for those terrified. The silliness of seasonal adjustments have caused the headlines that jarred the reading algorithms higher and now the piper must be paid and down we will go. The piper in Europe has to be paid, too.
And guess what, Brent's spread has spiked back over $20 as even with a dollar surge of 5 pennies on the Euro, oil didn't fall.
The idiots talking about cash on the sidelines still have not figured it out. Yeah, there's cash on the sidelines. It is waiting to for dips in Treasuries to buy them.
Look at the drop in the 10 year yield on the employment report. Yikes!!!!!!!
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/04/06/bls-employment-to-population-ratio-falls-teen-unemployment-going-spanish/
fed has withdrawn 68B in liquidity in the last 6 weeks. kill the markets so the fed can print. everytime money is done being printed, the markets drop in t+30.
$3.93 gas here. The economy stopped. They print and you can put a nail the final nail in the coffin.
YEP! Everyone knows the economy has ground to a halt, and if they print now it will detonate the whole country along with Europe.
$4.55 here.
problem reaction solution
So Bernanke is set to speak April 9th. I'm willing to bet that he promises and alludes to nothing (no more QE for now) and blames the weather for the bad NFP number. The Fed will likely take a "wait and see approach" with the economy which will lead to the necessary 10-30%+ correction he needs for more LSAP.
Last week a well known brokerage house trader from the 'CME', came right out and said -"Bernake should stop being a Trader!" He's f***ing everything up.
They'd bought more AAPL, if it was trading today.
There really should be no surprise here. Rates were moving higher and the US Government cant take higer rates. Interesting to watch all of the press talk about the re election in the US and not have them realize that Big Ben controls who the next President is and he does not like the current President. Ben will soften the economy because he wants Mitt in the White House and cant stand BO. watch and you will see.
If you think Bernanke is really the one calling the shots, you need a major dose of reality.
Bernanke has bosses too.
I'd argee that it appears more and more likely that Obumma loses in November (simply because the need for a major market correction prior to more QE and the lack of an Iran war to justify the Sept. debt ceiling breach) but if he does it's not because Bernanke wants him to...
It doesn't matter who wins now. its a null set. Same policys and path no matter who wins.
But if Mitt wins we won't be entertained by the doofus photo of Obama every time the teleprompter has something for him to say. I hope Tyler has a photo of slick Mitt ready to go.
Meet the new TOTUS, same as the...wait...
Not true, Mitt will be an improvement. Maybe not enough for the gold, guns & ammo sceptic but an improvement nevertheless.
Think of the Bain Capital jokes. Nancy can wail, "He's the Bain of my existence!".
Maybe Olberman, if he gets another job (who knows..Syfy, Animal Planet, TVLand?) will go apopleptic and blow out all the blood vessels in his eyes.
That's the reality, but try telling that to all the red team/blue team players. I'm so sick of the partisan bullshit, I'm running out of steam butting heads with the party believers. They're on the same team, for fuck sake. Jeebus, but people are fucking hard-headed. I'm still trudging, though. All you can do.
It’s Tax Time: Time to Occupy the IRS
Every year I trek down to a nondescript office building near Wall Street with a bag full of receipts and a belly full of anxiety.
http://www.secretnews-compact.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=501:its-tax-time-time-to-occupy-the-irs&catid=1:latest-news&Itemid=50
From our Department of Truth here in Canada, there were 73,000 jobs created for a population of 34 mil.
From your Deparment of Truth, there were 120,000 jobs for a population of 300 mil and again these are Department of Truth numbers. Do the math.
All i can say re CAD numbers... oil sands.
No doubt.
My point is that 120,000 or even 300,000 is quite, quite, quite horrible. By comparison I wanted to show the stupidity of the number, which is in itself very much inflated.
Using numerical logic, US number should have been 10 times larger thus 700,000 jobs since the population is 10 times larger.
My rule of thumb:
- Canada Data: multiply by 0.7
- US data: multiply by 0.6
- Euro data: multiply by 0.4
- Chinese data: multiply by 0.2
I still think gold hits 2000 by December
Expect a wild ride before then
easy,... and then some
This means stocks are going up....right?
The Easter Flash crash is a timed and planned opportunity to drop the futures while major markets are closed.
http://displacedema.blogspot.com/2012/04/easter-flash-crash-in-progress.html
Interesting, and logical. Gotta get the bad news out at some point, might as well be when there is an opportunity for the players to go in the news and try to smooze things up.
what timing, a perfect respite to take profits and pulling-back the reigns on a seemingly parabolic market with no logic or reason. riding out the dip, if there is,... even a 10% pull-back, with a "just-in-time', wash-out" for the pre-summer [sell-n-may-and -go-away?] buying binge mentality -- onward ye` holidays to the hamptons
Not this year. Sell in May and go away extends the calendar to the point where the Jan 1 fiscal cliff looms and dominates headlines all the way to election day.
And then the really ugly thing about post election day lame duck Congress acting to address that cliff is . . . THEY CAN'T. The ratings agencies will smash the US debt rating if they try to undo the fiscal cuts.
frying pan - fire
someone did not read the playbook: bad news = good news = risk on
may the fed be with you
Looks like some people are setting up for a QE trade. Gold up, dollar down....someone is buying equities and hedging with treasuries. This is going to get interesting.
Well sure, all the entire world market is now based on nothing but guessing if and when Ben will print. Disgusting.
My guess is too soon to put on the QE trade. Strategists seem to left out WTI/Brent from their equations. WTI has to be below 90 to get QE, til then Ben has to sit on his hand and play "stranger".
Point taken, but it is never an "if" it is only a "when."
Canada reported the creation of more than 80k jobs. Total BS. But I guess that's were all the missing US jobs went to. I can't wait to see the next food stamp numbers.
Warm and dry spring
Blankfein and Bernakenstein better watch
Gods coming... and she's pissed
Closes below support channels in both the Dow and SP500 on the daily's this week. Just another indication of weakness. Diverging MACD too. Anaemic volume.
Could be a top.
Have a look for yourself.
http://bullandbearmash.com/latest/sp-500/daily/
Simple Jack economic world....but hey go ahead and print Ben, Id kinda laugh when gas jumps over $6.
it is sorta like a spectator sport, which way will the idiots go now.
Where is that angry redneck, breaking shit and talking econ?
We need his leadership these days.
Ah, found it.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/much-deserved-blast-past
This guy should be the new Fed Chairman
OT but:
http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/04/06/11049946-self-declared-mega-millions-winner-mirlande-wilson-i-lost-the-ticket?gt1=43001
~~~
Apparently, the "winning ticket" (from that area) was purchased at a 7-11 in Baltimore on a "single ticket" (which, of course, has a timestamp), but the 7-11 cameras & the timestamp of the winning ticket do not synch up with anything...
Aside from the obvious & expected clown show of winners claiming they lost the ticket (same clain was reported from a Haitian woman in Kansas), this brings up another point... Namely, NO MATCH for timestamp & surveillance cameras? on a single ticket?
How hard would it be for the lottery to rig a huge payout & fleece the sheep once again?
Just like in David Baldacci's book 'The Winner'....the lottery is a scam 100%.
The Lottery, by Shirley Jackson was better.
The Solar Lottery, by Philip K. Dick was even better.
Anybody know what gold is doing?
enormous moves on the T prices: just what drBenZelbub ordered! L0L!
the story of the "break" in the CDS index by theMorgueLondonPropDesk may prove blythe's "trust me" pressConf warnings of "liquidity" prescient
there are some indications of increased probability of liquidations; how "netted out" and routine this would be is anybody's guess, but the advertiZed strength of the "systemic" elements [banks] does not exactly look encouraging; on the other hand, we could see the bank "consolidations" looming since last month's "3-yr financing"
could be; i don't know; when ya see the dollar down against the EUR the CHF and the Yen, maybe all ya know for sure is that the easterBunny is comin to town...
Futures now unch.