You're now on the archive server. Commenting has been disabled.
TrimTabs Explains Why Today's "Very, Very Suspicious" NFP Number Is Really Down 2.9 Million In Past 2 Months
We have examined the nuance of the euphoric jobs data this morning from every angle and by now there should be plenty of 'information' for investors to make their own minds up on its credibility. However, the avuncular CEO of TrimTabs, who despite channeling Lewis Black lately, likely knows this data a little better than the average Jim on the street having collected tax witholdings data for the past 14 years, is modestly apoplectic at the adjustments. In one of his more colorful episodes, and rightfully so, Charles Biderman notes that "Either there is something massively changed in the income tax collection world, or there is something very, very suspicious about today’s BLS hugely positive number," adding, "Actual jobs, not seasonally adjusted, are down 2.9 million over the past two months. It is only after seasonal adjustments – made at the sole discretion of the Bureau of Labor Statistics economists – that 2.9 million fewer jobs gets translated into 446,000 new seasonally adjusted jobs." A 3.3 million "adjustment" solely at the discretion of the BLS? And this from the agency that just admitted it was underestimating the so very critical labor participation rate over the past year? Finally, Biderman wonders whether the BLS is being pressured during an election year to paint an overly optimistic picture by President Obama’s administration in light of these 'real unadjusted job change' facts. Frankly, in light of recent discoveries about the other "impartial" organization, the CBO, we don't think there is any need to wonder at all.
TrimTabs believes the job growth picture lies somewhere in between TrimTabs estimate and the BLS’. Looking forward to February and March, we will have a much cleaner picture of job growth as we move away from the effects of tax law changes, bonus season, and enormous seasonal adjustments.
A comparison of TrimTabs’ real-time withholding tax based employment results versus the BLS’ preliminary and revised results from January 2011 through January 2012 are summarized in the following table:
and from details from his blog (for the press corps to perhaps dig a little deeper):
Obviously I am quite suspicious of the numbers that I see in today’s BLS press release. Remember most financial journalists and even stock market strategists do nothing more than rewrite government press releases. So do not expect very few others to question the good news.
For those of you who care, look at Table B-1, Total Nonfarm Employment in today’s BLS press release. Start with the non seasonally adjusted table that shows that in November 2011, there were 133.172 million actual jobs. Actual jobs dropped by 220,000 jobs in December and actual jobs dropped an additional 2.7 million in January. Only as a result of unknown seasonal adjustments, could the BLS report 243,000 new hires in January.
Yes, the labor market contracts during the winter and expands in the spring and summer. Could this number be manipulated? Of course it could. Is it? I don’t know. Am I the only suspicious soul out here? Hope not. Certainly feels lonely right now.
Finally, and this is a repeat of what we said prior using SIFMA data (so originating at the US banksthemsleves), for the US unemployment to be declining, Federal tax withholdings have to be rising: there is no way around it! Instead, as the chart below shows, trailing quarterly collections have just turned negative.
Q.E.D.
»
- 34361 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
Bernake: "Scoreboard"
Civilian employment dropped from 140,681,000 in December 2011, to 139,944,000 in January 2012. 737,000, their numbers.
141,070,000 - 139,944,000 = 1,126,000 jobs lost last two monts = bull shit propaganda.
LUUUUCY......YOU HAVE SOME SPLAINING TO DO!
Does anyone have access to data regarding past seasonal changes in the job market? Jobs numbers in Dec/Jan from past years? Any information that might shed light on how they do their adjustments? This would be a great bullshit call for an aspiring journalist or a contrarian. I'm too fucking busy ;)
C'mon people, there is NO WAY that the jobs data was manipulated...not even remotely.
Joe Wiesenthal, the BLS & EVEN BARRY RITHOLTZ all said that the seasonal adjustment (voodoo/shamanic ceremony) that was performed was statistically appropriate and turned what were an absolute (and identifiable) 3 million lost jobs in the prior two months into a net gain of over 440,000 jobs during that same period.
People, if Barry Ritholtz is in agreement, surely Charles Biderman, the CBO (which HAD U3 at a SIGNIFICANTLY higher 10% just DAYS AGO) and anyone else who dare question the methodology employed by the BLS in arriving at their U3 figures, or more significantly, the very U3 data reported by the BLS this morning is merely spewing sour grape and/or is politically opposed to President Obama's reelection and/or is a pessimistic/doomer and/or is a party pooper.
All is well, bitchez!
Enjoy the fantastic recovery.
/SARC-A-LARK-A-LARK-G0-LONG-FACEBOOK-BITCHEZ/
It's getting to be like commissars reporting the results to Comintern of the latest Five-year Plan:
" We need 1,285,311 shoes, how many cows did we raise for leather this month comrade?"
Unemployment 8.3% for January 2012 - 243000 Jobs, Really?
- Economic Populist
...Additionally the 2010 Census data was incorporated into part of the unemployment survey which gives unemployment rates and demographic data. Previously unemployment rates, participation rates were based on the 2000 Census data, with statistical yearly adjustments. Here's the crux of what changed:
Below is a running tally of how many official jobs permanently lost since the official start of this past recession, with the new numbers. Increased population growth, implies the United States needs to create at least 10.27 million jobs or self-employment. This estimate assume a 62.7% civilian non-institutional population to employment ratio, as it was in December 2007, which implies an additional 4.69 million jobs were needed over a 49 month time period beyond the ones already lost.
8.230 million of the 26.87 million part-timers working low hours are doing so because they cannot get full time jobs. We cannot compare the change from last month due to the Census adjustments added to the December data. So, one needs to realize that's a hell of a lot of people stuck in part-time jobs who need full-time work.
The employment to population ratio is now 58.5%, no change from last month and at record lows. You have to go back to the severe recession of 1983, October to find such low ratios. The uber-low ratios are not a structural change, such as all families decided to have a stay at home caretaker, or magically a host of people could retire early, or magically all young people went to school as some want to claim. The low employment to population ratio are people dropping out of the labor count. Once can see this simply by the cliff dive on the ratio during 2008-2010. There is no way magically, suddenly, a huge increase of population volunteered to drop out of the labor force. These ratios are with the 2010 Census population adjustments incorporated.
These numbers are important because unemployment is a ratio, percentage or during a limited time period, the number of people actively looking for a job and counted. Many people are not counted in the official unemployment statistics, yet when looking behind the official numbers it's clear America has more potential workers and less jobs in so called recovery than during one of the worst post WWII recessions.
The January 2012 unemployment report incorporated many statistical adjustments. Additionally one cannot compare the monthly changes between December and January because all of the adjustments are added to the December 2011 data only, not spread out over the entire year, which makes a monthly comparison statistically invalid.
We'll be reviewing sections of this months unemployment report in excruciating detail so check back! Leave your questions in the comments and we'll try to dig out the answer in the BLS data.
Unemployment 8.3% for January 2012 - 243000 Jobs, Really?
- Economic Populist
Lol! Two prize fights in one weekend.
1st: Mark to unicorn zombie banks vs. recently defunct hedge fund CDS...on the obvious impending Greek default...often over the last 12 months referred to as a "soft reprofiling."
2nd: Zerohedge/Rick Santelli vs. Reuters
http://jmp.io/sLC
Let's get ready to ruuuuuuuuuuuuuuumble!
Oh, I'm sorry...I didn't really explain. The link comes from the twitter account @ForexFranky. Forex Franky is a push account for Reuters as far as I can tell. I have made a small deductive leap here. Although Reuters is not in the link address, the boneheads don't even bother to change the color scheme from the usual Reuters site...where you can buckets and buckets of establishment vomit on a daily basis.
I'm not sure how much a lot you ZHer's know about "News Service" but a lot of the clap trap you see in the MSM is simply regurgitated wire copy that pours forth from "the establishment" minute to minute. I should know. My father was in the business for decades and at war with these "news wire" guys on a perpetual basis. After all, it is a lot easier to simply rip the print from the wire and run with it...rather than investigate, write, or stick you neck out in any way. My old man...he was not build like that.
Anyone else google "Avuncular"? lol
And by google, I mean use "Duck Duck Go" as I have become more concerned with online data mining.
reuters is a Rothschild entity
It is quite clear that the MSM is trying desperately to get attention...while trying not to look desperate doing so...and sometimes not really representing itself clearly. Old media is dying in this world, and while I'm pretty sure that those boardrooms are constantly filled with conversation that sound like "we're not getting our message out" or "we need to be forward looking"...the truth is, that Average Joe, who is supposed to be dumb as a rock mind you, has long since figured out that the Reuters of the world, the NBCs, the CBSs, the NYTs...are full of shit.
It isn't a matter of "getting their message out" in a new way...it is the failure of their integrity.
As for the Rothschilds...I'll leave that one to you.
I think you're the first person ever to quote Joe Weaselthal.
Wow! 243000 New Jobs Created in January
The Economic Populist Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time
Wow! 243,000 New Jobs Created in January
Submitted by Numerian on Fri, 02/03/2012 - 10:24
While a whopping number of jobs were created in January, a far larger number of people left the labor force - 1,752,000 in fact. The percent of the total working population who did not have jobs rose to 36.7%, an all time high. It’s no wonder the unemployment rate fell, when the denominator shrinks so markedly. The total number of people employed fell by 737,000. So what do you want to celebrate – the 243,000 who got jobs, or the million or so people who dropped by the wayside and are no longer counted in the data?
It makes you wonder how much faith you can put in the Labor Department reports. For example, the government, the business press, and Wall Street rarely report on the fundamental ways in which the US labor market is changing, with so many people dropping out of the work force. The press has had a hard enough time getting to grips with the Labor Department’s Birth/Death model, which over time adds to the number of people reported as employed. The model is supposed to compensate for the inability of the government to get good information on the number of new businesses created every month and which presumably add to employment. The problem is the model has been shown in the past to have significantly overestimated the number of jobs created by new businesses. Economists still don’t know if the model is appropriate, and how much of the 243,000 jobs created this month are the result of the Birth/Death model.
Arthor we do not have the secrets of the BLS but typically it was normal to correct, maybe 0.2% for seasonal adjustments. And you can justify the "smoothing" of the numbers.
The latest adjustment was 0.5%!!!!! This is why everyone is screaming and yelling. It is a complete deviation from the past and complete bullshit.
I mean why not make it 1% if you really want some propaganda points, WTF, just make it 6% by election day.
No but this is what I sent to the DOL OIG seeking an investigation for the DOL BLS UE calculation and responses.
I remain unwilling to believe that the entire BLS office gets up in the morning and rides the Metro to work with the intention of spending every day of their career lying.
But.
I *would* believe that seasonal adjustments that expect big ramp ups in Spring and Summer to do home building are based on a decade's worth of norms that no longer apply. Then in winter they would try to balance out the plummet in the raw number by an estimate of how many home building jobs shut down and adjust upward to deal with that.
In other words, the seasonal adjustments are not properly redefined for the New Normal. The seasonal tweaks are wrong and the overall tweaks are wrong.
They are living in the past.
What about the Fed, Treasury, FBI, DEA, FEMA, on and on. They don't lie, do they?
Too hard to believe little ol' BLS lies? LOL. They all fucking lie - starts top down. Government is corrupt through and through.
Remember this one:
Now listen to me loud and clear. This is the last time I will say this. I did not have sexual relations with Miss Lewinsky, not once, not ever.
LIE.
It's called compartmentalisation. The further up the chain the numbers go, the bigger the "adjustments".
In addition, the participation rate for those 55 years and up is at multi decade highs, so the entire drop in the laborce is falling on the shoulders of those below 55.
TheSilverJounal.com
B L S
Bullshit. Lie. Steal
Bollocks.
/nm
If you're going to hate, at least be right. It's pretty clear he's calling bullshit on the propaganda that the US is gaining jobs.
This is the real Friday Humor.
I was feeling kind of bad about the phony BLS statistics that are leading a lot of people into delusional ruin when I realized that our valiant FBI guardians of domestic justice are all busy busting dangerous fake NFL merchandise hucksters in Indianapolis.
To quack or not to quack: that is the question?
"Huckster" & "snake oil" can be inadvertently (or deliberately) used to besmirch the works of Hoxsey & a like...
while i'm at it... the "tin foil hats" phrase patronizes orgone collectors, such as the one adorned by Aleister Crowley.
http://www.crystalinks.com/crowley.html
See Royal Raymond Rife & William Reich for more.
SJ, I wasn't hating.
I just couldn't find the numbers he referenced and thought he might actually be mocking TrimTabs. I found his numbers later, on Table A-1, and answered my own questions.
Of course these numbers are completly bogus! When is the last time the government released a legit number?!
http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/
Asskeys, the government statistics are 100% true (just had my 2nd blue pill for the day, they are not as effective as the use to!)
Fewer people working, but if the BLS can make the denominator smaller at a faster rate than the job losses the unemployment rate will continue to drop. Soon the denominator will be zero, no jobs left and 0% unemployment just in time for November!
Biderman is basing his case on withholding taxes up until the end of December but Adler on another ZH article shows the graph right through January and taxes clearly spike in that month until the last week:
"The real time Federal Withholding Tax daily data for January, which I dutifully cover each week in the Treasury updates, showed a massive surge beginning in late December." Adler surmises that there could have been a large amount of money in bonuses and sales commissions paid out in that time leading the BLS to interpret this as being from an increase in employment rather than from higher pay for some and seasonally adjust the jobs number incorrectly.
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/deconstructing-massive-beat-employment-data
STOP THE PRESSES! STOPPPPPPPP THE PRESSES! Apperently "the voices of Zero Hedge have been heard" and "the BLS has now responded" such that ALL THE WORLD can now know PRECISELY how these numbers were arrived at:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=EhbxI5eVnM4
i agree "this a rather spirited form of number crunching." I mean...what else can i say? Clearly the video speaks for itself....
The old Disraeli quote comes to mind, "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics."
Even better is a quote I've run across lately, by the historian Andrew Lang: "Some people use statistics as a drunken man uses lampposts- for support rather than illumination."
The BLS needs its own 12-step program. (And notice that we have used its correctly here, grammar Nazis.)
And what is the root word of "statistics?"
asstics?
Heh. No. It's "statist."
What it's is a lie.
I saw a statistic once that said that 79.8% of ALL statistics are made on the spot.
grammar Nazi #6 agrees
the GN thing is in the blood, don't hate us
If millions of jobs were lost in a forest, and no one was around to report it, were they really lost? Or something like that...
I'll say it again... Vaporized.
It now appears that the Gubment has 100% control/cooperation of all the MSM (Main Slime Media). No one, I repeat, NO ONE has done anything but regurgitate the outlandish BS from BLS. NO ONE in the media has had the temerity, spine or integrity to examine the BLS numbers and reveal just what exactly this admin has been doing.
In the past I have felt sorry for the way things were going in this country.....now I fear for the way things are going.
This will not end well!
Just saw Maria Fartiroma with Bob Pissonme talking shit about the great recovery. Maria looks like she's got those fat old lady tits now, all saggy. This station is better than comedy channel
maria was the biggest whore on the floor back in the day, bj's for everyone with a nice title
O got one...women could suck a golf ball thru a garden hose
Hey, we're supposed to be denegrating Maria here not pointing out her pos. attributes!
She could debone a chicken with her tongue.
Is there any ZH'er anywhere who does not know the "real" score? I didn't think so. Tough living amongst such fools.
it's so hard knowing you're right and know the truth...
Tell me about it. I try to enlighten my family and friends and they simply DO NOT want to hear the truth and act like it is me that is misinformed. Very, very sad and frustrating. Humans are clearly defective and need to be extinctified. Too bad we will eat anything and breed like cockroaches.
"what the american people don't know, is what makes them the american people" ray zalinksi on Tommy Boy...
You should watch my family's eyes glaze over when I show them a gold or silver coin and explain why I add to my family's stack every chance I get. They think the coins are neat-o novelties I found in a cracker jack box. And my dad is supposed to be smart - he's got the dreaded P-h-D after his name and is a college professor, but might be the biggest sheep person I know. I've got a 2 year old and a 2 month old, and those boys will be raised with eyes WIDE open to avoid all the mistakes their pop made his first 35 years, simply because he didn't know any better.
hide your gold from your family. ex. identify theft is perpetrated most by family members praying on family members. when the shit hit fan; your daddy will come a knock'n and a begg'n; cut bait, protect your youngs.
Gave up trying to educate others long ago my friend. Even my dad, a 20+ year Wall St vet retired in 99 just cannot get his head around the fact this is a totally different market (in fact it's no market at all) with NO RULES, certainly no rule of law. Won't read my emails and won't talk to me about market conditions. Says he is prepared, has reallocated his money. Problem is it's all in paper; doesn't own so much as a gold bracelet. He's gonna get destroyed but refuses to listen. It's just tragic, but hey I've done all I can do. Have fun shinin shoes into your 90s pop.
No, It's fucking frustrating,,,I say.
My days consist of trading from home and reading ZH and a few other sites.
Then I go out into the world. Meet up with friends, have drinks, dinner and chat with them. Occasionally the topic of the economy, politics, the stock market come up.
I listen to them talk, I see many of them are for the most part "happy". And I can't help but to think...My god, maybe they were right after all. Maybe ignorance is indeed bliss.
My day consists of wondering why I should go out and do my job. Then I check zerohedge. rinse, repeat.
I have started carrying around 2 pre-64 quarters and 2 Pre-soviet collapse coins (they are nice cause they say CCCP). What is the difference between these two coins?
Reality.
uhhhhh...........what?............
Just like we will soon, the Soviets currency collapsed. The coins are just worthless relics of an age where everyone thought the government was the be all and end all.
Ah. Ok. got it. sorry. It didn't quite click at first.
Alien-IQ "I listen to them talk, I see many of them are for the most part "happy". And I can't help but to think...My god, maybe they were right after all. Maybe ignorance is indeed bliss."
Things might get a little worse, but all the data from the past few months is showing the economy, housing, labor, starting to turn around. Things are looking up. You know, they may be right. Just remember that old song. . . .
Smilers never lose, and frowners never win.
So open up your heart and let the sunshine in.
In a thread about "suspicious government statistics" which contains, at it's beginning, a video that clearly shows that the government statistics are bullshit...You are trying to suggest that things seem to be getting better according to government statistics.
Do you see the irony in this? Or are you really that...Blissful?
perfect
A fool and his money... ever see the blissful look of a vilage idiot? look in the mirror
Election year? Maybe.
I think though the trend will continue post elections.
In US citizenism, an ignored problem is a solved problem.
To ignore is to solve. A new one for my repertoire. +1
BLS
Bullshit, Lies and Shit.....er.......Statistics.
Bureau of Lying Sadistics?
Wouldn't that be Bureau of Lying Sadists?
You would be correct as sadistic is an adjective...thank you for noticing my grammatical oversight.
Bureau of Luddite Socialists?
BorderLine pSychotics
Unfortunately USSA has embarked on a course of lying and data manipulation seen too often in Argentina / Russia etc... There is little to be done right now. Investor lemmings have lost their ability to critically analyse data and will follow the line upward as long as Benny prints until total catastrophic collapse like seen in the previous examples.
Most funds are forced to. They need returns and thanks to ZIRP don't have a choice in terms of risk profile. For them, it is risk-on or insolvency. Scary.
it is risk-on then insolvency
start packing bags.. last one turns off the lights!
government that is out of control and knee deep into manipulation and blatant propanda efforts will stop at nothing.
there is no hope, there is no change, there is only the one-way train straight into the FEMA camps for all that dare question government.
Romney, Gingrich, Obama or whoever else is coming to enact the laws..
Be that as it may Mr. Biderman, but everyone who has been bearish for the last 25% up move in the S&P has gotten their ass handed to them. At some point this market is going to correct but as long as I'm on the right side of the trade, I don't give a shit.
come back to us when the internet is down, and your momma ain't there to make the boo-boo go away!
Stocks are up on money printing. But they are up. The money won't stop flowing because everyone is terrified of where the bottom might be if they stop.
I'd rather be on the side of doing what is right than have a few extra bucks in my hand because Ben decided to make life a lot harder for some poor people.
So what you are saying is that you are not bothered by fraud and manipulation as long as you can make money on it?
Many who caught all the upside from Oct 4th also caught most of the downside since S&P 1,370 in May.
Unless the low is in for the year, both opinions can still make money.
Not seasonal adjusted the U-6 unemployment rate increased from 15.2 to 16.2%. Actual and Make Believe data are conflicting. When the real data sucks, just fudge it.
i know ZH loves killing GS market calls quite rightly so
but they made a call on the Russell2000 seems they were looking for 835-
its got very close in double quick time
SEARS, BANK OF AMERICA, AMERICAN AIRLINES, BARCLAYS, MORGAN STANLEY, MICROSOFT, HSBC
All say word up in January.
You're telling me the government would lie to its own people? Who would have ever thought /sarc/
If I had panties I'd throw them at this guy.
Suspicious indeed good sir. Suspicious indeed.
This is getting ridiculous.
It's all utterly Orwelian - not just today's misinformation, but everything for the last 10 years or more.
Totally fucking Orwelian.
Think in Newspeak.
We're fucked :(
Double plus unfucked.
Nice one :)
I cannot begin to imagine what kind of toll the constant gathering and digging into this non stop barrage of government Bullshit takes on Tyler (or "all The Tylers").
Just reading this day in and day out is often times a mind-numbing, soul sucking, rage inducing exercise. I can't imagine the metal and emotional toll it must take on someone doing it with the relentlessness that ZH displays.
I am honestly in awe of what you guys accomplish here.
Perfect post alien
Oh, I don't know. The Tyler's are obviously not here for the money or for kudos from the peanut gallery. I think they enjoy exposing the endless BS, maybe they get to even a few scores we'll never know about. I suspect they love what they do. The satisfaction of forcing CNBC to respond to articles posted here is a huge victory imo.
Sunshine is the best disinfectant - glad a group of dedicated folks are around to open the curtains.
ZH=the first an actually real 'ANONYMOUS'.
Well if it's too stressful then he can take heart that soon the gov't will shut his site down and gladly feed him daily meals of water and bread
The toll is significant, but you can accept it and turn it into comedy, both of which the Tylers are doing.
My profession is in forecasting (microeconomic stuff, with macro inputs.) Anyone sane is in the same boat, and I've talked with corporate planners and economists at Fortune 500 companies and most of them know we're fucked, though the toe-the-line chief economists types always try to put a happy face on it. Just this week I was speaking with a psychologist about this level of cognitive dissonance, and her comments were interesting -- a key recipe for stress and PTSD is to know with certainty a negative event is coming, but to not know when, ie for the timing of it to be essentially random; the parellels were living with a violent alcoholic that doesn't drink every day, or being in the military in an undefinied conflict (e.g. Afghanistan) where you're mostly safe until someone randomly vaporizes a truck in front of you. 100% certainty bad shit is going to happen, and you just don't know when.
The current situation is tailor-made to generate maximum stress if you have even the slightest understanding. Now pretend you're in charge of planning for this shit going down, and it's harder still. I can't imagine the stress someone like David Walker went through before snapping and telling the truth to whoever would listen.
Anyway, I too am grateful that the Tylers put up with this day after day. For the rest of us, take a break from it now and then, prepare with food, fuel, firearms and medical supplies and then grab a bowl of popcorn.
There's no stopping what's coming, so you might as well enjoy the view.
Someone must have used some industrial Duct Tape, a whole roll, on Ron Paul today. He has to be pissed.
Gotta love Lewis Black, tell it like it is Mo-Fo!!
RP is apparently on Piers Morgan tonight for an in-depth interview.
the price of wool skyrockets!
The government doesn't lie. It never has.
and never will...
2 1/2 new jobs added in each county and parish in the US per day.
Now that is change you can believe in.
Now we need to start working on that pesky little Baltic Dry number !
Next in line for a bullshitting ! Watch it start a strait line up starting today !
They will probably buy some ships and convert them to prison barges. Our economy is looking more and more like the mercantile British economy of the 18th century. We might as well have the prison ships to.
the obama administration announced today that the united states is not located anywhere near the baltic sea, and therefore our country remains unaffected by the drop in the index................
Yeah... we're closer to 'Mediterranean Avenue'
Oh yea,
3 million vaporized employment in the last two months. Let's see how low she can go next month.
Taking bets on 10 million plus by Nov.
Now wouldn't that be some MAGIC! VAPORIZED! BAM!
Haha.
any reason why guv data reports on a friday and/or holiday?
Here's how to gauge real unemployment: walk around your town at 10am.
There's a lot of people out there.
I was just thinking that. I "work" from home and was looking out the window and see so many people 30-45 yrs old just walking around and it's mid day.
Yep. It's the same with inflation. Don't listen to CPI. Just calculate month to month cost increases that you see.
Not just food, either. I looked to buy a Canon lens off Amazon with my income tax refund...it was $1200 a few months ago; now it's $1399. You know what? Now I'm not buying. Probably buy some silver instead. Good job, the Bernank.
Are Canon lens an import?
I believe so. Canon is a Japanese company, so I assume the camera shops Amazon distributes with get them from Japan. But Canon has service centers (and possibly factories) in the U.S. I'm not sure if any lenses are produced here, though.
& these bankers & politicians think a delationary spiral is bad. As if that lens all of a sudden being $200 would be bad for an economy driven by consumption. Some would say that would cause widespread pain. But it's a lot better than the pain that inflation causes. People don't riot over lower prices. They go apeshit over hyperinflation.
That and it seems like every day see more and more people pushing carts and dumpster diving. Sometimes I see families doing it. It is really pretty pathetic. Then I have to hear this BLS bullshit and I want to scream ..." look around at your neighbors,dumb asses, you are being totally fucked"!
Right. People spend too much time looking at government figures (and somehow believing them) and not enough time looking around their neighborhood. People just aren't perceptive, and they're easily swayed, which is why this charade can go on.
I saw a middle class white guy pull up to my apartment complex dumpster and jump in, pulling out wine bottles and aluminum cans. I told my girlfriend, "Things are officially bad--I've seen homeless doing this, but never a middle class guy (who drove up in a nice pickup truck)." Looked like the guy was just absolutely desperate. Still had some assets (e.g. the truck), but no better option for income than diving into the dumpster and pulling out wine bottles. Yet, the economy is growing, and it is great!
I see it everywhere. I see it in my neighborhood where people used to take immaculate care of their house and yrads. Now they are letting things slide. I see it on the drive home with the crumbling roads and the garbage everywhere. It was nothing like this a few years ago. Now I am just watching everything deteriorate in front of my eyes. It is sickening.
Yes, agreed. I don't own a home and never have, so I don't notice those things as much as someone like you, but I do notice them somewhat when I take daily walks. Another thing I notice is hidden inflation. Perfect example is this year's Cadbury Easter Eggs (a guilty pleasure of mine): they're once again smaller than last years (which were smaller than the year before). Also, nothing you buy comes preassembled anymore. These types of "hidden inflation" don't show up in CPI. Heck, now that they've revised it again, I doubt anything will show up in CPI.
I think the best thing to do is hold the items up to people you know and show them the difference. They'll treat you like Fox Mulder unless they see it themselves.
Why don't you take pictures ans share them?
Because I can't afford the hyperinflated Canon lens. ;)
Just kidding. I just don't feel like taking photos of Cadbury Eggs, and I don't have last year's copy--they're long digested.
It is election year BS. Par for the big government and big banks types. Lie and deny until the building burns us all down to the ground.
Gold/silver getting whacked today is very, very suspicious. Is it option expiration by any chance ?
With the employment picture "brightening" there will be no more need to print money...until we need to issue another cool trillion once the debt limit is breached again.
Will that be in May or June?
Who cares, it's going much higher.
The guy above is probably right that unemployment figures create that illusion. It's also had a nice month long run, so maybe it's just profit taking. I doubt it'll drop below 1700. Little pullback and a run up. ZIRP until 2014=3500 gold, so don't fret it.
Deleted, hopefully
Charles Biderman, I’m with you.
Biderman is basing his case on the withholding taxes up until the end of December but Adler in another ZH article shows the graph right through January and taxes clearly spike in that month until the last week:
"The real time Federal Withholding Tax daily data for January, which I dutifully cover each week in the Treasury updates, showed a massive surge beginning in late December." Adler surmises that there could have been a large amount of money in bonuses and sales commissions paid out in that time leading the BLS to interpret this as being from an increase in employment rather than from higher pay for some, and seasonally adjusted the jobs number incorrectly.
Why doesn't someone have real time data on how many social security payroll accounts received employer deposits for the month? Is that too much to ask of the SSA to report that figure monthly?
That might be too accurate. What they want is a model. A model which they can change at any time.
pods
And for the win! Best comment today. Give this man a prize!
Every guy would like a model they can change @ anytime. Then U can be like Tom Brady or Leonardo DiCappicola.
I hear they have these new fangled things called Kompooters. They're like really fast secretaries and can gather up all the files and num'mers!
If banks can gather up all the stuff from the day and have it done for the next day, wouldn't you think the govy could do that too?
•?•
V-V
The government can track you in real time. Yet when it comes to collecting data which may damage its reputation, it resorts to techniques from the 18th century. Funny how that works.
NFP aside, our little group is wondering who could've bought the other 8% long-dated treasurys'
I like the guy. But when he says it's lonley right now thats because you are the only person not living the hyper-euphoria that the rest of Saulsalito is.
What was that great restaraunt that used to be up behind a hotel-you took a little elevator then climbe like 1000 steps...that had excellent chops and a great view.
Howard Johnson's?
Great economy numbers today, right?
Ask these people how the fuckin' economy is doing for them:
http://www.truth-out.org/wal-mart-whistleblowers-stand-retaliation/1328292245
what was the adjustment last year.....anyone?
Well, the adjustment was about the same last year, I took a quick look at that table B-1 and it was adjusted upwards from 128 (m) to 130 (m). This year it was from 130 to 132.
So, do your own DD, but to me it seems like this particular adjustment was done properly. No conspiracy here, folks.
I don't say that this means all is clear, since these are backward looking, historical numbers and I'm interested in the (probable) future events. Anyhow, don't trade only based only "conspiracy" - could cost U some money.
take a look:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm
Snap ;-)
Did you manage to get full runs of the SA & NSA data? I can't get the "one screen" data selector to work: http://www.bls.gov/data/#employment
Yes, scroll down to the bottom and retrive historical data, just clik from payrolls both SA and NSA and you'll get 2 perfect tables.... at least I got.
And from there you can compare for example January adjustments and they are about 2m for every year. And for example, not too much for Dec series.
scroll here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm
Yeah i figured......still bought Some TVIX tho .......thank you so much
Jan 11 adjustment*: +2129k
Jan 12 adjustment: +2146k
*NFP SA - NFP NSA data here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm
The seasonality may be changing (more internet shopping = more seasonal hiring of couriers in Dec, maybe changes in the timing of sales etc) but no obvious manipulation of the Jan seasonal adjustment...
but hiring in December 2010 was much more believeable than hiring in December 2011.
unless Europe's LTRO had an instant direct counter balance effectiveness on unwinding massive layoffs in the US and restarting a hiring process?
what else? WTF?
The BLS is just one of the Captain's mates. Don't worry folks, we only have an electricial problem. Go back to your rooms until further notice...
http://aaeblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/costa-concordia.jpg