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TrimTabs Explains Why Today's "Very, Very Suspicious" NFP Number Is Really Down 2.9 Million In Past 2 Months

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We have examined the nuance of the euphoric jobs data this morning from every angle and by now there should be plenty of 'information' for investors to make their own minds up on its credibility. However, the avuncular CEO of TrimTabs, who despite channeling Lewis Black lately, likely knows this data a little better than the average Jim on the street having collected tax witholdings data for the past 14 years, is modestly apoplectic at the adjustments. In one of his more colorful episodes, and rightfully so, Charles Biderman notes that "Either there is something massively changed in the income tax collection world, or there is something very, very suspicious about today’s BLS hugely positive number," adding, "Actual jobs, not seasonally adjusted, are down 2.9 million over the past two months. It is only after seasonal adjustments – made at the sole discretion of the Bureau of Labor Statistics economists – that 2.9 million fewer jobs gets translated into 446,000 new seasonally adjusted jobs." A 3.3 million "adjustment" solely at the discretion of the BLS? And this from the agency that just admitted it was underestimating the so very critical labor participation rate over the past year? Finally, Biderman wonders whether the BLS is being pressured during an election year to paint an overly optimistic picture by President Obama’s administration in light of these 'real unadjusted job change' facts. Frankly, in light of recent discoveries about the other "impartial" organization, the CBO, we don't think there is any need to wonder at all.

TrimTabs believes the job growth picture lies somewhere in between TrimTabs estimate and the BLS’.  Looking forward to February and March, we will have a much cleaner picture of job growth as we move away from the effects of tax law changes, bonus season, and enormous seasonal adjustments.

A comparison of TrimTabs’ real-time withholding tax based employment results versus the BLS’ preliminary and revised results from January 2011 through January 2012 are summarized in the following table:

 

and from details from his blog (for the press corps to perhaps dig a little deeper):

Obviously I am quite suspicious of the numbers that I see in today’s BLS press release.  Remember most financial journalists and even stock market strategists do nothing more than rewrite government press releases. So do not expect very few others to question the good news.

 

For those of you who care, look at Table B-1, Total Nonfarm Employment in today’s BLS press release. Start with the non seasonally adjusted table that shows that in November 2011, there were 133.172 million actual jobs. Actual jobs dropped by 220,000 jobs in December and actual jobs dropped an additional 2.7 million in January. Only as a result of unknown seasonal adjustments, could the BLS report 243,000 new hires in January.

 

Yes, the labor market contracts during the winter and expands in the spring and summer.  Could this number be manipulated? Of course it could. Is it? I don’t know. Am I the only suspicious soul out here? Hope not. Certainly feels lonely right now.

Finally, and this is a repeat of what we said prior using SIFMA data (so originating at the US banksthemsleves), for the US unemployment to be declining, Federal tax withholdings have to be rising: there is no way around it! Instead, as the chart below shows, trailing quarterly collections have just turned negative.

Q.E.D.

 

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Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:03 | 2124430 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Bernake:  "Scoreboard"

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:12 | 2124476 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Civilian employment dropped from 140,681,000 in December 2011, to 139,944,000 in January 2012.  737,000, their numbers.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:15 | 2124496 economics1996
economics1996's picture

141,070,000 - 139,944,000 = 1,126,000 jobs lost last two monts = bull shit propaganda.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:18 | 2124513 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

LUUUUCY......YOU HAVE SOME SPLAINING TO DO!

 

 

 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:13 | 2124748 Arthor Bearing
Arthor Bearing's picture

Does anyone have access to data regarding past seasonal changes in the job market? Jobs numbers in Dec/Jan from past years? Any information that might shed light on how they do their adjustments? This would be a great bullshit call for an aspiring journalist or a contrarian. I'm too fucking busy ;)

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:48 | 2124865 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

C'mon people, there is NO WAY that the jobs data was manipulated...not even remotely.

Joe Wiesenthal, the BLS & EVEN BARRY RITHOLTZ all said that the seasonal adjustment (voodoo/shamanic ceremony) that was performed was statistically appropriate and turned what were an absolute (and identifiable) 3 million lost jobs in the prior two months into a net gain of over 440,000 jobs during that same period.

People, if Barry Ritholtz is in agreement, surely Charles Biderman, the CBO (which HAD U3 at a SIGNIFICANTLY higher 10% just DAYS AGO) and anyone else who dare question the methodology employed by the BLS in arriving at their U3 figures, or more significantly, the very U3 data reported by the BLS this morning is merely spewing sour grape and/or is politically opposed to President Obama's reelection and/or is a pessimistic/doomer and/or is a party pooper.

All is well, bitchez!

Enjoy the fantastic recovery.

 

/SARC-A-LARK-A-LARK-G0-LONG-FACEBOOK-BITCHEZ/

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 18:01 | 2124955 falun bong
falun bong's picture

It's getting to be like commissars reporting the results to Comintern of the latest Five-year Plan:

" We need 1,285,311 shoes, how many cows did we raise for leather this month comrade?"

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 19:07 | 2125187 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

 

 

Unemployment 8.3% for January 2012 - 243000 Jobs, Really?

 ‎ - Economic Populist

...Additionally the 2010 Census data was incorporated into part of the unemployment survey which gives unemployment rates and demographic data. Previously unemployment rates, participation rates were based on the 2000 Census data, with statistical yearly adjustments. Here's the crux of what changed:

The adjustment increased the estimated size of the civilian noninstitutional population in December by 1,510,000, the civilian labor force by 258,000, employment by 216,000, unemployment by 42,000, and persons not in the labor force by 1,252,000.

Below is a running tally of how many official jobs permanently lost since the official start of this past recession, with the new numbers. Increased population growth, implies the United States needs to create at least 10.27 million jobs or self-employment. This estimate assume a 62.7% civilian non-institutional population to employment ratio, as it was in December 2007, which implies an additional 4.69 million jobs were needed over a 49 month time period beyond the ones already lost.

8.230 million of the 26.87 million part-timers working low hours are doing so because they cannot get full time jobs. We cannot compare the change from last month due to the Census adjustments added to the December data. So, one needs to realize that's a hell of a lot of people stuck in part-time jobs who need full-time work.

The employment to population ratio is now 58.5%, no change from last month and at record lows. You have to go back to the severe recession of 1983, October to find such low ratios. The uber-low ratios are not a structural change, such as all families decided to have a stay at home caretaker, or magically a host of people could retire early, or magically all young people went to school as some want to claim. The low employment to population ratio are people dropping out of the labor count. Once can see this simply by the cliff dive on the ratio during 2008-2010. There is no way magically, suddenly, a huge increase of population volunteered to drop out of the labor force. These ratios are with the 2010 Census population adjustments incorporated.

These numbers are important because unemployment is a ratio, percentage or during a limited time period, the number of people actively looking for a job and counted. Many people are not counted in the official unemployment statistics, yet when looking behind the official numbers it's clear America has more potential workers and less jobs in so called recovery than during one of the worst post WWII recessions.

The January 2012 unemployment report incorporated many statistical adjustments. Additionally one cannot compare the monthly changes between December and January because all of the adjustments are added to the December 2011 data only, not spread out over the entire year, which makes a monthly comparison statistically invalid.

We'll be reviewing sections of this months unemployment report in excruciating detail so check back! Leave your questions in the comments and we'll try to dig out the answer in the BLS data.

Unemployment 8.3% for January 2012 - 243000 Jobs, Really?

 ‎ - Economic Populist

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 20:08 | 2125396 Cdad
Cdad's picture

 

 

Lol!  Two prize fights in one weekend.

1st:  Mark to unicorn zombie banks vs. recently defunct hedge fund CDS...on the obvious impending Greek default...often over the last 12 months referred to as a "soft reprofiling."

2nd:  Zerohedge/Rick Santelli vs. Reuters

http://jmp.io/sLC

Let's get ready to ruuuuuuuuuuuuuuumble!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 20:51 | 2125525 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Oh, I'm sorry...I didn't really explain.  The link comes from the twitter account @ForexFranky.  Forex Franky is a push account for Reuters as far as I can tell.  I have made a small deductive leap here.  Although Reuters is not in the link address, the boneheads don't even bother to change the color scheme from the usual Reuters site...where you can buckets and buckets of establishment vomit on a daily basis.

I'm not sure how much a lot you ZHer's know about "News Service" but a lot of the clap trap you see in the MSM is simply regurgitated wire copy that pours forth from "the establishment" minute to minute.  I should know.  My father was in the business for decades and at war with these "news wire" guys on a perpetual basis.  After all, it is a lot easier to simply rip the print from the wire and run with it...rather than investigate, write, or stick you neck out in any way.  My old man...he was not build like that.

 

 

 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 21:04 | 2125558 Left Right Wrong
Left Right Wrong's picture

Anyone else google "Avuncular"? lol

 

And by google, I mean use "Duck Duck Go" as I have become more concerned with online data mining.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 21:09 | 2125571 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

reuters is a Rothschild entity

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 21:50 | 2125664 Cdad
Cdad's picture

It is quite clear that the MSM is trying desperately to get attention...while trying not to look desperate doing so...and sometimes not really representing itself clearly.  Old media is dying in this world, and while I'm pretty sure that those boardrooms are constantly filled with conversation that sound like  "we're not getting our message out" or "we need to be forward looking"...the truth is, that Average Joe, who is supposed to be dumb as a rock mind you, has long since figured out that the Reuters of the world, the NBCs, the CBSs, the NYTs...are full of shit.

It isn't a matter of "getting their message out" in a new way...it is the failure of their integrity.

As for the Rothschilds...I'll leave that one to you.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 18:37 | 2125088 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

I think you're the first person ever to quote Joe Weaselthal.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 19:22 | 2125218 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Wow! 243000 New Jobs Created in January

The Economic Populist Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time


Wow! 243,000 New Jobs Created in January

Submitted by Numerian on Fri, 02/03/2012 - 10:24

While a whopping number of jobs were created in January, a far larger number of people left the labor force - 1,752,000 in fact. The percent of the total working population who did not have jobs rose to 36.7%, an all time high. It’s no wonder the unemployment rate fell, when the denominator shrinks so markedly. The total number of people employed fell by 737,000. So what do you want to celebrate – the 243,000 who got jobs, or the million or so people who dropped by the wayside and are no longer counted in the data?

It makes you wonder how much faith you can put in the Labor Department reports. For example, the government, the business press, and Wall Street rarely report on the fundamental ways in which the US labor market is changing, with so many people dropping out of the work force. The press has had a hard enough time getting to grips with the Labor Department’s Birth/Death model, which over time adds to the number of people reported as employed. The model is supposed to compensate for the inability of the government to get good information on the number of new businesses created every month and which presumably add to employment. The problem is the model has been shown in the past to have significantly overestimated the number of jobs created by new businesses. Economists still don’t know if the model is appropriate, and how much of the 243,000 jobs created this month are the result of the Birth/Death model.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:52 | 2124895 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Arthor we do not have the secrets of the BLS but typically it was normal to correct, maybe 0.2% for seasonal adjustments.  And you can justify the "smoothing" of the numbers.

The latest adjustment was 0.5%!!!!!  This is why everyone is screaming and yelling.  It is a complete deviation from the past and complete bullshit.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:53 | 2124909 economics1996
economics1996's picture

I mean why not make it 1% if you really want some propaganda points, WTF, just make it 6% by election day.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 20:14 | 2125413 Everyman
Everyman's picture

No but this is what I sent to the DOL OIG seeking an investigation for the DOL BLS UE calculation and responses.

 

 

Inspector General,

 

I formally request a complete investigation on the incorrect and misleading way that the BLS calculates unemployment in this country.  Our employed workforce actually has been contracting for over 3 years.  In addition to that ALL the BLS announcements have been reviese "up" aomst 109 consecutive weeks, meaning what is reported for the stock market and Wall streeters is usually depressed, when in reality it is much worse. 

 

I am forwarding this to my senators and representatives to get this thing moved along for the country.  This lying by a governmental agency to the very people that are paying for these services of YOUR department deserve so much more than this.  This report gets quashed, it goes to Drudge and underground and viral. 

 

The "seasonally adjusted" rate is incredibly forgiving and does not represent true numbers.  For instance this month alone the "seasonal adjustment" was 3.3 million up.  No jobs were "created", infact 2.9 million people LEFT the workforce as verified by shadowstats.com, and several other sites, as well as the INCOME and SS taxes paid all went backwards at the same rate of 2.9 million lost jobs, not 447,000 GAINED as claimed with a 3.3 million math correction mystically added in.

 

The information is out ther and abvailable, but the reality is that YOUR DEPARTMENT IS LYING, and we know it.  Government is there to serve we the people, and now that is is to your attention, it is time for you to kick some asses.  There are people in DOL that need to be fired for putting out this bunch of shit to taxpayers and we pay for this shit!  Here is how easy it is for me an unpaid non governmental type to find out, from the DOL's own fucking numbers:

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/trimtabs-explains-why-todays-very-very-suspicious-nfp-number-really-down-29-million-past-2-mont

 

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=201459

 

The economy is NOT healthy, and all this lying and window dressing DOES NOT SERVE THE CITIZENRY OF THE USA!!!  These lies only help the political classes.

 

So please for the sake of the country start this investigation and get us SOME REAL FREAKIN' NUMBERS so we can FIX THE FREAKIN' PROBLEMS!!!!!!

 

Thank You

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 18:47 | 2125118 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

I remain unwilling to believe that the entire BLS office gets up in the morning and rides the Metro to work with the intention of spending every day of their career lying.

But.

I *would* believe that seasonal adjustments that expect big ramp ups in Spring and Summer to do home building are based on a decade's worth of norms that no longer apply.  Then in winter they would try to balance out the plummet in the raw number by an estimate of how many home building jobs shut down and adjust upward to deal with that.

In other words, the seasonal adjustments are not properly redefined for the New Normal.  The seasonal tweaks are wrong and the overall tweaks are wrong.

They are living in the past.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 19:12 | 2125150 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

I remain unwilling to believe that the entire BLS office gets up in the morning and rides the Metro to work with the intention of spending every day of their career lying.

What about the Fed, Treasury, FBI, DEA, FEMA, on and on.  They don't lie, do they?

Too hard to believe little ol' BLS lies?  LOL.  They all fucking lie - starts top down.  Government is corrupt through and through.

Remember this one:

Now listen to me loud and clear.  This is the last time I will say this.  I did not have sexual relations with Miss Lewinsky, not once, not ever.

LIE.

 

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 05:19 | 2126190 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

It's called compartmentalisation. The further up the chain the numbers go, the bigger the "adjustments".

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:25 | 2124544 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

In addition, the participation rate for those 55 years and up is at multi decade highs, so the entire drop in the laborce is falling on the shoulders of those below 55.

TheSilverJounal.com

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 18:23 | 2125041 Vaiman
Vaiman's picture

B L S

Bullshit.  Lie.  Steal

 

 

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 05:21 | 2126191 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Bollocks.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:40 | 2124551 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

/nm

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:41 | 2124604 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

If you're going to hate, at least be right. It's pretty clear he's calling bullshit on the propaganda that the US is gaining jobs.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:43 | 2124613 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

This is the real Friday Humor.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:17 | 2124767 Manthong
Manthong's picture

I was feeling kind of bad about the phony BLS statistics that are leading a lot of people into delusional ruin when I realized that our valiant FBI guardians of domestic justice are all busy busting dangerous fake NFL merchandise hucksters in Indianapolis.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 01:24 | 2125323 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

To quack or not to quack: that is the question?

"Huckster" & "snake oil" can be inadvertently (or deliberately) used to besmirch the works of Hoxsey & a like...

while i'm at it... the "tin foil hats" phrase patronizes orgone collectors, such as the one adorned by Aleister Crowley.
http://www.crystalinks.com/crowley.html

See Royal Raymond Rife & William Reich for more.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 18:01 | 2124954 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

SJ, I wasn't hating.

I just couldn't find the numbers he referenced and thought he might actually be mocking TrimTabs. I found his numbers later, on Table A-1, and answered my own questions.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:08 | 2124717 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Of course these numbers are completly bogus! When is the last time the government released a legit number?!

 

http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 22:10 | 2125716 Hman
Hman's picture

Asskeys, the government statistics are 100% true (just had my 2nd blue pill for the day, they are not as effective as the use to!)

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:21 | 2124781 Blue Dingo
Blue Dingo's picture

Fewer people working, but if the BLS can make the denominator smaller at a faster rate than the job losses the unemployment rate will continue to drop.  Soon the denominator will be zero, no jobs left and 0% unemployment just in time for November!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 19:48 | 2125340 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Biderman is basing his case on withholding taxes up until the end of December but Adler on another ZH article shows the graph right through January and taxes clearly spike in that month until the last week:

"The real time Federal Withholding Tax daily data for January, which I dutifully cover each week in the Treasury updates, showed a massive surge beginning in late December." Adler surmises that there could have been a large amount of money in bonuses and sales commissions paid out in that time leading the BLS to interpret this as being from an increase in employment rather than from higher pay for some and seasonally adjust the jobs number incorrectly.

 

 

 

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/deconstructing-massive-beat-employment-data   

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 21:57 | 2125693 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

STOP THE PRESSES! STOPPPPPPPP THE PRESSES! Apperently "the voices of Zero Hedge have been heard" and "the BLS has now responded" such that ALL THE WORLD can now know PRECISELY how these numbers were arrived at:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=EhbxI5eVnM4
i agree "this a rather spirited form of number crunching." I mean...what else can i say? Clearly the video speaks for itself....

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:13 | 2124484 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

The old Disraeli quote comes to mind, "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics."

Even better is a quote I've run across lately, by the historian Andrew Lang: "Some people use statistics as a drunken man uses lampposts- for support rather than illumination."

The BLS needs its own 12-step program. (And notice that we have used its correctly here, grammar Nazis.)

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:24 | 2124541 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

And what is the root word of "statistics?"

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:30 | 2124566 Gamma735
Gamma735's picture

asstics?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 18:34 | 2125080 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Heh. No. It's "statist."

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:29 | 2124562 q99x2
q99x2's picture

What it's is a lie.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:30 | 2124817 xela2200
xela2200's picture

I saw a statistic once that said that 79.8% of ALL statistics are made on the spot.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 01:13 | 2129886 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

grammar Nazi #6 agrees

the GN thing is in the blood, don't hate us

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:18 | 2124511 I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

If millions of jobs were lost in a forest, and no one was around to report it, were they really lost? Or something like that...

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:44 | 2124617 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

I'll say it again...   Vaporized.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 11:11 | 2126361 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

It now appears that the Gubment has 100% control/cooperation of all the MSM (Main Slime Media).  No one, I repeat, NO ONE has done anything but regurgitate the outlandish BS from BLS.  NO ONE in the media has had the temerity, spine or integrity to examine the BLS numbers and reveal just what exactly this admin has been doing.

In the past I have felt sorry for the way things were going in this country.....now I fear for the way things are going.

This will not end well!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:06 | 2124445 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Just saw Maria Fartiroma with Bob Pissonme talking shit about the great recovery. Maria looks like she's got those fat old lady tits now, all saggy. This station is better than comedy channel

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:31 | 2124570 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

maria was the biggest whore on the floor back in the day, bj's for everyone with a nice title

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:33 | 2124581 The Axe
The Axe's picture

O got one...women could suck a golf ball thru a garden hose

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:43 | 2124616 juangrande
juangrande's picture

Hey, we're supposed to be denegrating Maria here not pointing out her pos. attributes!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 21:40 | 2125652 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

She could debone a chicken with her tongue.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:06 | 2124447 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Is there any ZH'er anywhere who does not know the "real" score? I didn't think so.  Tough living amongst such fools.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:10 | 2124470 brewing
brewing's picture

it's so hard knowing you're right and know the truth...

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:19 | 2124515 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

Tell me about it. I try to enlighten my family and friends and they simply DO NOT want to hear the truth and act like it is me that is misinformed. Very, very sad and frustrating. Humans are clearly defective and need to be extinctified. Too bad we will eat anything and breed like cockroaches.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:33 | 2124578 brewing
brewing's picture

"what the american people don't know, is what makes them the american people"  ray zalinksi on Tommy Boy...

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:41 | 2124607 I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

You should watch my family's eyes glaze over when I show them a gold or silver coin and explain why I add to my family's stack every chance I get. They think the coins are neat-o novelties I found in a cracker jack box. And my dad is supposed to be smart - he's got the dreaded P-h-D after his name and is a college professor, but might be the biggest sheep person I know. I've got a 2 year old and a 2 month old, and those boys will be raised with eyes WIDE open to avoid all the mistakes their pop made his first 35 years, simply because he didn't know any better.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:02 | 2124690 lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

hide your gold from your family. ex. identify theft is perpetrated most by family members praying on family members. when the shit hit fan; your daddy will come a knock'n and a begg'n; cut bait, protect your youngs.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 23:59 | 2125896 StormShadow
StormShadow's picture

Gave up trying to educate others long ago my friend. Even my dad, a 20+ year Wall St vet retired in 99 just cannot get his head around the fact this is a totally different market (in fact it's no market at all) with NO RULES, certainly no rule of law. Won't read my emails and won't talk to me about market conditions. Says he is prepared, has reallocated his money. Problem is it's all in paper; doesn't own so much as a gold bracelet. He's gonna get destroyed but refuses to listen. It's just tragic, but hey I've done all I can do. Have fun shinin shoes into your 90s pop.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:45 | 2124622 kill switch
kill switch's picture

No, It's fucking frustrating,,,I say.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:28 | 2124553 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

My days consist of trading from home and reading ZH and a few other sites.

Then I go out into the world. Meet up with friends, have drinks, dinner and chat with them. Occasionally the topic of the economy, politics, the stock market come up.

I listen to them talk, I see many of them are for the most part "happy". And I can't help but to think...My god, maybe they were right after all. Maybe ignorance is indeed bliss.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:44 | 2124620 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

My day consists of wondering why I should go out and do my job.  Then I check zerohedge.  rinse, repeat.

I have started carrying around 2 pre-64 quarters and 2 Pre-soviet collapse coins (they are nice cause they say CCCP).  What is the difference between these two coins?

Reality.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:55 | 2124654 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

uhhhhh...........what?............

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:01 | 2124684 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Just like we will soon, the Soviets currency collapsed.  The coins are just worthless relics of an age where everyone thought the government was the be all and end all.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:10 | 2124728 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Ah. Ok. got it. sorry. It didn't quite click at first.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:46 | 2124867 Transformer
Transformer's picture

Alien-IQ "I listen to them talk, I see many of them are for the most part "happy". And I can't help but to think...My god, maybe they were right after all. Maybe ignorance is indeed bliss."

Things might get a little worse, but all the data from the past few months is showing the economy,  housing, labor, starting to turn around.  Things are looking up.  You know, they may be right.  Just remember that old song. . . .

 

Smilers never lose, and frowners never win.

So open up your heart and let the sunshine in.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 18:06 | 2124973 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

In a thread about "suspicious government statistics" which contains, at it's beginning, a video that clearly shows that the government statistics are bullshit...You are trying to suggest that things seem to be getting better according to government statistics.

Do you see the irony in this? Or are you really that...Blissful?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 18:33 | 2125076 walküre
walküre's picture

perfect

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 18:11 | 2124999 Whalley World
Whalley World's picture

A fool and his money... ever see the blissful look of a vilage idiot? look in the mirror

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:08 | 2124455 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Election year? Maybe.

I think though the trend will continue post elections.

In US citizenism, an ignored problem is a solved problem.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:30 | 2124818 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

To ignore is to solve. A new one for my repertoire. +1

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:08 | 2124463 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

BLS

Bullshit, Lies and Shit.....er.......Statistics.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:34 | 2124583 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Bureau of Lying Sadistics?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:53 | 2124647 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Wouldn't that be Bureau of Lying Sadists?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:03 | 2124692 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

You would be correct as sadistic is an adjective...thank you for noticing my grammatical oversight.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 01:35 | 2126038 Blue Horshoe Lo...
Blue Horshoe Loves Annacott Steel's picture

Bureau of Luddite Socialists?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:01 | 2124681 Arthor Bearing
Arthor Bearing's picture

BorderLine pSychotics

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:09 | 2124465 Zola
Zola's picture

Unfortunately USSA has embarked on a course of lying and data manipulation seen too often in Argentina / Russia etc... There is little to be done right now. Investor lemmings have lost their ability to critically analyse data and will follow the line upward as long as Benny prints until total catastrophic collapse like seen in the previous examples. 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:17 | 2124507 centerline
centerline's picture

Most funds are forced to. They need returns and thanks to ZIRP don't have a choice in terms of risk profile. For them, it is risk-on or insolvency. Scary.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:34 | 2127181 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

it is risk-on then insolvency

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 18:36 | 2125086 walküre
walküre's picture

start packing bags.. last one turns off the lights!

government that is out of control and knee deep into manipulation and blatant propanda efforts will stop at nothing.

there is no hope, there is no change, there is only the one-way train straight into the FEMA camps for all that dare question government.

Romney, Gingrich, Obama or whoever else is coming to enact the laws..

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:13 | 2124482 kaa1016
kaa1016's picture

Be that as it may Mr. Biderman, but everyone who has been bearish for the last 25% up move in the S&P has gotten their ass handed to them. At some point this market is going to correct but as long as I'm on the right side of the trade, I don't give a shit.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:29 | 2124559 sabra1
sabra1's picture

come back to us when the internet is down, and your momma ain't there to make the boo-boo go away!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:33 | 2124579 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Stocks are up on money printing.  But they are up.  The money won't stop flowing because everyone is terrified of where the bottom might be if they stop.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:00 | 2124677 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'd rather be on the side of doing what is right than have a few extra bucks in my hand because Ben decided to make life a lot harder for some poor people.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:06 | 2124702 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

So what you are saying is that you are not bothered by fraud and manipulation as long as you can make money on it?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:51 | 2124891 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

Many who caught all the upside from Oct 4th also caught most of the downside since S&P 1,370 in May. 

Unless the low is in for the year, both opinions can still make money.

 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:12 | 2124483 Marge N. Callz
Marge N. Callz's picture

Not seasonal adjusted the U-6 unemployment rate increased from 15.2 to 16.2%. Actual and Make Believe data are conflicting. When the real data sucks, just fudge it.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:13 | 2124489 campag
campag's picture

i know ZH loves killing GS market calls quite rightly so

but they made a call on the Russell2000 seems they were looking for 835-

its got very close in double quick time

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:14 | 2124490 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

SEARS, BANK OF AMERICA, AMERICAN AIRLINES, BARCLAYS, MORGAN STANLEY, MICROSOFT, HSBC

All say word up in January.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:15 | 2124493 Jayda1850
Jayda1850's picture

You're telling me the government would lie to its own people? Who would have ever thought /sarc/

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:35 | 2124502 HD
HD's picture

If I had panties I'd throw them at this guy.

Suspicious indeed good sir. Suspicious indeed.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:16 | 2124504 DogSlime
DogSlime's picture

This is getting ridiculous.

It's all utterly Orwelian - not just today's misinformation, but everything for the last 10 years or more.

Totally fucking Orwelian.

Think in Newspeak.

We're fucked :(

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:23 | 2124532 weimdog
weimdog's picture

Double plus unfucked.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:36 | 2124589 DogSlime
DogSlime's picture

Nice one :)

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:17 | 2124506 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

I cannot begin to imagine what kind of toll the constant gathering and digging into this non stop barrage of government Bullshit takes on Tyler (or "all The Tylers").

Just reading this day in and day out is often times a mind-numbing, soul sucking, rage inducing exercise. I can't imagine the metal and emotional toll it must take on someone doing it with the relentlessness that ZH displays.

I am honestly in awe of what you guys accomplish here.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:19 | 2124514 ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

Perfect post alien

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:30 | 2124563 HD
HD's picture

Oh, I don't know.  The Tyler's are obviously not here for the money or for kudos from the peanut gallery. I think they enjoy exposing the endless BS, maybe they get to even a few scores we'll never know about. I suspect they love what they do. The satisfaction of forcing CNBC to respond to articles posted here is a huge victory imo.

Sunshine is the best disinfectant - glad a group of dedicated folks are around to open the curtains.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 12:43 | 2126517 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

ZH=the first an actually real 'ANONYMOUS'.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:04 | 2124697 Arthor Bearing
Arthor Bearing's picture

Well if it's too stressful then he can take heart that soon the gov't will shut his site down and gladly feed him daily meals of water and bread

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 19:22 | 2125239 seek
seek's picture

The toll is significant, but you can accept it and turn it into comedy, both of which the Tylers are doing.

My profession is in forecasting (microeconomic stuff, with macro inputs.) Anyone sane is in the same boat, and I've talked with corporate planners and economists at Fortune 500 companies and most of them know we're fucked, though the toe-the-line chief economists types always try to put a happy face on it. Just this week I was speaking with a psychologist about this level of cognitive dissonance, and her comments were interesting -- a key recipe for stress and PTSD is to know with certainty a negative event is coming, but to not know when, ie for the timing of it to be essentially random; the parellels were living with a violent alcoholic that doesn't drink every day, or being in the military in an undefinied conflict (e.g. Afghanistan) where you're mostly safe until someone randomly vaporizes a truck in front of you. 100% certainty bad shit is going to happen, and you just don't know when.

The current situation is tailor-made to generate maximum stress if you have even the slightest understanding. Now pretend you're in charge of planning for this shit going down, and it's harder still. I can't imagine the stress someone like David Walker went through before snapping and telling the truth to whoever would listen.

Anyway, I too am grateful that the Tylers put up with this day after day. For the rest of us, take a break from it now and then, prepare with food, fuel, firearms and medical supplies and then grab a bowl of popcorn.

There's no stopping what's coming, so you might as well enjoy the view.

 

 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:17 | 2124510 ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

Someone must have used some industrial Duct Tape, a whole roll, on Ron Paul today.  He has to be pissed.

 

Gotta love Lewis Black, tell it like it is Mo-Fo!!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 18:12 | 2125002 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

RP is apparently on Piers Morgan tonight for an in-depth interview.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:19 | 2124516 non_anon
non_anon's picture

the price of wool skyrockets!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:20 | 2124520 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

The government doesn't lie. It never has.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 18:49 | 2125131 TuesdayBen
TuesdayBen's picture

and never will...

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:22 | 2124529 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

2 1/2 new jobs added in each county and parish in the US per day.

Now that is change you can believe in.

 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:22 | 2124530 Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

Now we need to start working on that pesky little Baltic Dry number !

Next in line for a bullshitting ! Watch it start a strait line up starting today ! 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:41 | 2124592 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

They will probably buy some ships and convert them to prison barges. Our economy is looking more and more like the mercantile British economy of the 18th century. We might as well have the prison ships to.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:39 | 2124593 kito
kito's picture

the obama administration announced today that the united states is not located anywhere near the baltic sea, and therefore our country remains unaffected by the drop in the index................

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 21:19 | 2125593 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Yeah... we're closer to 'Mediterranean Avenue'

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:23 | 2124533 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Oh yea,

3 million vaporized employment in the last two months. Let's see how low she can go next month.

Taking bets on 10 million plus by Nov.

Now wouldn't that be some MAGIC! VAPORIZED! BAM!

Haha.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:23 | 2124535 non_anon
non_anon's picture

any reason why guv data reports on a friday and/or holiday?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:24 | 2124539 devo
devo's picture

Here's how to gauge real unemployment: walk around your town at 10am.

There's a lot of people out there.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:28 | 2124555 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I was just thinking that. I "work" from home and was looking out the window and see so many people 30-45 yrs old just walking around and it's mid day. 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:36 | 2124587 devo
devo's picture

Yep. It's the same with inflation. Don't listen to CPI. Just calculate month to month cost increases that you see.

Not just food, either. I looked to buy a Canon lens off Amazon with my income tax refund...it was $1200 a few months ago; now it's $1399. You know what? Now I'm not buying. Probably buy some silver instead. Good job, the Bernank.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:51 | 2124641 groundedkiwi
groundedkiwi's picture

Are Canon lens an import?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:56 | 2124652 devo
devo's picture

I believe so. Canon is a Japanese company, so I assume the camera shops Amazon distributes with get them from Japan. But Canon has service centers (and possibly factories) in the U.S. I'm not sure if any lenses are produced here, though.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 01:27 | 2126028 Blue Horshoe Lo...
Blue Horshoe Loves Annacott Steel's picture

& these bankers & politicians think a delationary spiral is bad.  As if that lens all of a sudden being $200 would be bad for an economy driven by consumption.  Some would say that would cause widespread pain.  But it's a lot better than the pain that inflation causes.  People don't riot over lower prices.  They go apeshit over hyperinflation.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:43 | 2124615 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That and it seems like every day  see more and more people pushing carts and dumpster diving. Sometimes I see families doing it. It is really pretty pathetic. Then I have to hear this BLS bullshit and I want to scream ..." look around at your neighbors,dumb asses, you are being totally fucked"!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:51 | 2124633 devo
devo's picture

Right. People spend too much time looking at government figures (and somehow believing them) and not enough time looking around their neighborhood. People just aren't perceptive, and they're easily swayed, which is why this charade can go on.

I saw a middle class white guy pull up to my apartment complex dumpster and jump in, pulling out wine bottles and aluminum cans. I told my girlfriend, "Things are officially bad--I've seen homeless doing this, but never a middle class guy (who drove up in a nice pickup truck)." Looked like the guy was just absolutely desperate. Still had some assets (e.g. the truck), but no better option for income than diving into the dumpster and pulling out wine bottles. Yet, the economy is growing, and it is great!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:55 | 2124655 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I see it everywhere. I see it in my neighborhood where people used to take immaculate care of their house and yrads. Now they are letting things slide. I see it on the drive home with the crumbling roads and the garbage everywhere. It was nothing like this a few years ago. Now I am just watching everything deteriorate in front of my eyes. It is sickening.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:06 | 2124678 devo
devo's picture

Yes, agreed. I don't own a home and never have, so I don't notice those things as much as someone like you, but I do notice them somewhat when I take daily walks. Another thing I notice is hidden inflation. Perfect example is this year's Cadbury Easter Eggs (a guilty pleasure of mine): they're once again smaller than last years (which were smaller than the year before). Also, nothing you buy comes preassembled anymore. These types of "hidden inflation" don't show up in CPI. Heck, now that they've revised it again, I doubt anything will show up in CPI.

I think the best thing to do is hold the items up to people you know and show them the difference. They'll treat you like Fox Mulder unless they see it themselves.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:25 | 2124797 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Why don't you take pictures ans share them?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:47 | 2124871 devo
devo's picture

Because I can't afford the hyperinflated Canon lens. ;)

Just kidding. I just don't feel like taking photos of Cadbury Eggs, and I don't have last year's copy--they're long digested.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:27 | 2124549 Gamma735
Gamma735's picture

It is election year BS.  Par for the big government and big banks types.  Lie and deny until the building burns us all down to the ground.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:30 | 2124567 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Gold/silver getting whacked today is very, very suspicious. Is it option expiration by any chance ?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:39 | 2124594 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

With the employment picture "brightening" there will be no more need to print money...until we need to issue another cool trillion once the debt limit is breached again.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:50 | 2124636 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Will that be in May or June?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:53 | 2124645 devo
devo's picture

Who cares, it's going much higher.

The guy above is probably right that unemployment figures create that illusion. It's also had a nice month long run, so maybe it's just profit taking. I doubt it'll drop below 1700. Little pullback and a run up. ZIRP until 2014=3500 gold, so don't fret it.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:45 | 2124573 skepticCarl
skepticCarl's picture

Deleted, hopefully

 

 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:33 | 2124575 Eric L. Prentis
Eric L. Prentis's picture

Charles Biderman, I’m with you.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 21:45 | 2125655 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Biderman is basing his case on the withholding taxes up until the end of December but Adler in another ZH article shows the graph right through January and taxes clearly spike in that month until the last week:

"The real time Federal Withholding Tax daily data for January, which I dutifully cover each week in the Treasury updates, showed a massive surge beginning in late December." Adler surmises that there could have been a large amount of money in bonuses and sales commissions paid out in that time leading the BLS to interpret this as being from an increase in employment rather than from higher pay for some, and seasonally adjusted the jobs number incorrectly.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:35 | 2124586 whisperin
whisperin's picture

Why doesn't someone have real time data on how many social security payroll accounts received employer deposits for the month? Is that too much to ask of the SSA to report that figure monthly?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:49 | 2124634 pods
pods's picture

That might be too accurate.  What they want is a model.  A model which they can change at any time.

pods

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:52 | 2124640 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

And for the win! Best comment today. Give this man a prize!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 01:20 | 2126020 Blue Horshoe Lo...
Blue Horshoe Loves Annacott Steel's picture

Every guy would like a model they can change @ anytime.  Then U can be like Tom Brady or Leonardo DiCappicola.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:53 | 2124643 Herkimer Jerkimer
Herkimer Jerkimer's picture

I hear they have these new fangled things called Kompooters. They're like really fast secretaries and can gather up all the files and num'mers!

 

If banks can gather up all the stuff from the day and have it done for the next day, wouldn't you think the govy could do that too?

 

•?•
V-V

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:00 | 2124665 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

The government can track you in real time. Yet when it comes to collecting data which may damage its reputation, it resorts to techniques from the 18th century. Funny how that works.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:36 | 2124590 Tic tock
Tic tock's picture

NFP aside, our little group is wondering who could've bought the other 8% long-dated treasurys'

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:40 | 2124599 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I like the guy.  But when he says it's lonley right now thats because you are the only person not living the hyper-euphoria that the rest of Saulsalito is.

What was that great restaraunt that used to be up behind a hotel-you took a little elevator then climbe like 1000 steps...that had excellent chops and a great view.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 01:18 | 2126016 Blue Horshoe Lo...
Blue Horshoe Loves Annacott Steel's picture

Howard Johnson's?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:41 | 2124606 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Great economy numbers today, right?

Ask these people how the fuckin' economy is doing for them:

Bad Jobs in Goods Movement," a series of interviews conducted with warehouse workers in Will County, Illinois, by Warehouse Workers for Justice, found that most warehouse workers are temp workers that are paid wages which barely keep them above the poverty lines, and they receive no benefits.

http://www.truth-out.org/wal-mart-whistleblowers-stand-retaliation/1328292245

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:42 | 2124609 indianajohns04
indianajohns04's picture

what was the adjustment last year.....anyone?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:59 | 2124672 nolla
nolla's picture

Well, the adjustment was about the same last year, I took a quick look at that table B-1 and it was adjusted upwards from 128 (m) to 130 (m). This year it was from 130 to 132.

 

So, do your own DD, but to me it seems like this particular adjustment was done properly. No conspiracy here, folks.

 

I don't say that this means all is clear, since these are backward looking, historical numbers and I'm interested in the (probable) future events. Anyhow, don't trade only based only "conspiracy" - could cost U some money.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:01 | 2124680 nolla
Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:06 | 2124707 onebir
onebir's picture

Snap ;-)

Did you manage to get full runs of the SA & NSA data? I can't get the "one screen" data selector to work: http://www.bls.gov/data/#employment

 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:14 | 2124736 nolla
nolla's picture

Yes, scroll down to the bottom and retrive historical data, just clik from payrolls both SA and NSA and you'll get 2 perfect tables.... at least I got.

And from there you can compare for example January adjustments and they are about 2m for every year. And for example, not too much for Dec series.

scroll here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 18:02 | 2124959 indianajohns04
indianajohns04's picture

Yeah i figured......still bought Some TVIX tho .......thank you so much

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:03 | 2124691 onebir
onebir's picture

Jan 11 adjustment*: +2129k

Jan 12 adjustment: +2146k

*NFP SA - NFP NSA data here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm

The seasonality may be changing (more internet shopping = more seasonal hiring of couriers in Dec, maybe changes in the timing of sales etc) but no obvious manipulation of the Jan seasonal adjustment...

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 18:44 | 2125116 walküre
walküre's picture

but hiring in December 2010 was much more believeable than hiring in December 2011.

unless Europe's LTRO had an instant direct counter balance effectiveness on unwinding massive layoffs in the US and restarting a hiring process?

what else? WTF?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 16:42 | 2124611 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

The BLS is just one of the Captain's mates. Don't worry folks, we only have an electricial problem. Go back to your rooms until further notice...

http://aaeblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/costa-concordia.jpg

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