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TrimTabs Explains Why Today's "Very, Very Suspicious" NFP Number Is Really Down 2.9 Million In Past 2 Months
We have examined the nuance of the euphoric jobs data this morning from every angle and by now there should be plenty of 'information' for investors to make their own minds up on its credibility. However, the avuncular CEO of TrimTabs, who despite channeling Lewis Black lately, likely knows this data a little better than the average Jim on the street having collected tax witholdings data for the past 14 years, is modestly apoplectic at the adjustments. In one of his more colorful episodes, and rightfully so, Charles Biderman notes that "Either there is something massively changed in the income tax collection world, or there is something very, very suspicious about today’s BLS hugely positive number," adding, "Actual jobs, not seasonally adjusted, are down 2.9 million over the past two months. It is only after seasonal adjustments – made at the sole discretion of the Bureau of Labor Statistics economists – that 2.9 million fewer jobs gets translated into 446,000 new seasonally adjusted jobs." A 3.3 million "adjustment" solely at the discretion of the BLS? And this from the agency that just admitted it was underestimating the so very critical labor participation rate over the past year? Finally, Biderman wonders whether the BLS is being pressured during an election year to paint an overly optimistic picture by President Obama’s administration in light of these 'real unadjusted job change' facts. Frankly, in light of recent discoveries about the other "impartial" organization, the CBO, we don't think there is any need to wonder at all.
TrimTabs believes the job growth picture lies somewhere in between TrimTabs estimate and the BLS’. Looking forward to February and March, we will have a much cleaner picture of job growth as we move away from the effects of tax law changes, bonus season, and enormous seasonal adjustments.
A comparison of TrimTabs’ real-time withholding tax based employment results versus the BLS’ preliminary and revised results from January 2011 through January 2012 are summarized in the following table:
and from details from his blog (for the press corps to perhaps dig a little deeper):
Obviously I am quite suspicious of the numbers that I see in today’s BLS press release. Remember most financial journalists and even stock market strategists do nothing more than rewrite government press releases. So do not expect very few others to question the good news.
For those of you who care, look at Table B-1, Total Nonfarm Employment in today’s BLS press release. Start with the non seasonally adjusted table that shows that in November 2011, there were 133.172 million actual jobs. Actual jobs dropped by 220,000 jobs in December and actual jobs dropped an additional 2.7 million in January. Only as a result of unknown seasonal adjustments, could the BLS report 243,000 new hires in January.
Yes, the labor market contracts during the winter and expands in the spring and summer. Could this number be manipulated? Of course it could. Is it? I don’t know. Am I the only suspicious soul out here? Hope not. Certainly feels lonely right now.
Finally, and this is a repeat of what we said prior using SIFMA data (so originating at the US banksthemsleves), for the US unemployment to be declining, Federal tax withholdings have to be rising: there is no way around it! Instead, as the chart below shows, trailing quarterly collections have just turned negative.
Q.E.D.
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As the local fractal cycle Deweyist (as in ER Dewey) , I too feel the loneliness given the fact that cyclic model surrogates of economic activity that have been reasonably predictive for a number of years are now stretched to their breaking points. I keep thinking maybe the Fed has abolished the business cycle, but some part of my Misesian subconscious keeps screaming "there ain't no such thing as a free lunch." As far as BLS data, it's only use seems to be gauging the divergence between the BLS stats and reality, such as Trim Tabs excellent disclosure of what is happening to witholding taxes which point to employment shrinking; and of course studying the response of the mainstream financial media.
Long Mandelbrot.
Short Hurst!
I hope all these liars burn in hell. I hate liars.
The Brown Clown needs all the Ex-Lax he can get to unplug his economically challenged bowels.
Biderman gets everything right but price. Does he trade his own stuff?
At any rate, Europe and US Banks are now -zombie and the longer this farce is perpetuated, the deeper the distrust of those who staff them. Once a certain level of discord is reached, the only thing standing behind the continued Trade terms, in a self-fulfilling prophecy, is the Military. ...troublingly, using the mid-east as a setting for a showdown is in the interests of the Major Powers, if it can be used to prove the efficiacy of the US/EU swords and arrows. Economically, that's the only thing that now matters... which is exactly why the ancient religions shared power between the Priest Class and the Warrior Class, and the Trader Class was excluded from rulership: when the US was referred to as a 'young nation', I suppose this is what was meant. All-in-all, it is no great loss - the US chose Money as its God.
They must have one of these at the BLS:
http://www.boingboinginflatables.com/images/cottoncandy-250.jpg
"Cotton candy is a form of spun sugar. Since cotton candy is mostly air, a small initial quantity of sugar generates a tremendously greater final volume, causing servings to be physically large and voluminous."
They no doubt received it as a gift from the FED.
Possible, and highly probable conversation last week between Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis and Tom Nardone, the Associate Commissioner for Employment and Unemployment Statistics at the BLS.
Solis: Hi Tom. This is Secretary Solis.
Nardone: Hello Madame Secretary. What can I do for you today?
Solis: Well Tom, I just want to find out how next weeks unemployment numbers look.
Nardone: Uh, OK. I guess they are not looking that great Madame Secretary.
Solis: What do you mean "not that great"?
Nardone: Um, um...Madame Secretary, there seems to be alot of people looking for work and not enough jobs out there.
Solis: I don't understand Tom. The President says we are creating jobs and it is your responsibility to make sure the statistics reflect what he says.
Nardone: Madame Secretary. I am a bureaucrat not a political appointee. I just crunch the numbers.
Solis: Tom, you listen to me. It is an election year and it is my job as Secretary of Labor to ensure that the labor numbers look strong going into November. I don't care what you have to do, but I fully expect you to create a statistical environment which is favorable to the Presidents re-election. Now, you just get back into that little Excel program of yours and juggle some numbers around a bit...or else YOU WILL BE JOINING THE RANKS OF THE UNEMPLOYED. DO YOU HEAR ME MISTER???
Nardone: Yes Madame Secretary. I guess i could just add about a million people to the "not in labor force" category and then I can fudge the seasonal adjustments a bit. That should do it.
Solis: Thats good Tom. Have a nice day. Goodbye.
Nardone: Goodbye Maam.
The most dangerous man, to any government, is the man who is able to think things out for himself, without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane and intolerable, and so, if he is romantic, he tries to change it. And even if he is not romantic personally he is very apt to spread discontent among those who are."
-H.L. Mencken
I'd have to agree with Mencken-vis a vis the government. But the most dangerous man (in general) is the one with nothing left to lose.
There will be more and more of these as the year grinds on.
tick tock tick tock .........
What are you Pink floyd? Jesus H.... Whats next Scott Muni, The great gig in the sky?
How dare him openly revealing the facts on video like this. He will be the first person detained after NDAA passed. He is a threat to this recovering and harmonic society.
The math is simple. The 243K jobs are created to spy on, arrest and detain any suspicious Americans after NDAA in effect.
Also, unemployment will go lower because many Americans will be arrested and they will not be eligible for employment. Thus they will be excluded from the math. All thanks to the signing of NDAA.
...and now Mr Robinson wuld like ta doo a littol song for you I'd like to call
''Trim Tabs and The Vix Vapor Rub For Children of Chairsatan''
Crime Ring around Rosemary's Baby
A pocket full of Fiat Posies
...ashes ...ashes
we all F
A
L
L
down
I'm pretty sceptical of the government, but it seems that they make these adjustments every year (this year isn't really an outlier):
Adjustments (in thousands):
January 2012 = 2,146
January 2011 = 2,129
January 2010 = 1,970
January 2009 = 2,006
January 2008 = 2,183
January 2007 = 2,166
January 2006 = 2,135
I think the bigger issue is the labor force participation rate.
By the way, December was similar in that it was not a huge outlier from previous years' adjustments, though it was a little high (less negative).
Spot on Strom. I think Trim Tabs is really lost here when they talk about adjustments, BLS has a solid track with this one. They (Trim Tabs) might be on to something with tax collections, like a lot of these jobs are part time and low level jobs...
Could that participation rate have something to do with retiring baby boomers? They'll average 65 this year, I guess?? However, 1.2m in one mont seems a lot...
All in all, I wonder how Tyler swallowed Trim Tabs' hook like that. I've been reading too much ZH lately, too much conspiracy and denial, thank god I'm only fucked up with my hedgies.
General market shorts are definitely painful right now. I'm trying to find investments that are non-volatile, still protect me from political decisions, make a little bit return-wise (just more than a savings account) and are relatively safe. Does such an investment exist??!?! Bonds = No; PMs = No; Stocks = No; CDs = No; Options = No
I think stocks are Yes and No. Yes, if not too cyclical. Techs are not, IMO.
Hmm, real estate? With steady income from rents, I don't know, really depends on location.
And, need to study that jobs participation rate more, you made some good points.
I think that the retiring baby boomers will definitely be dropping the labor force participation rate, but I was reading an article that said that they only account for 50-60% of the recent drops. The rest is working-age people dropping out of the labor force, either due to the fact that they can't find a job, or because they're realizing that a two-income household has certain negative effects on a family. My wife and I are having that discussion presently.
I got hunch this Strom person is buried in R/E. People are working longer, so that angle doesn't work. hence Tylers TAX=revenue angle. I suggest you spend some time learning how to read earnings reports and sector valuations, and lay off that " triple net" JUNK! Better yet, you should understand the REIT market and builders? Those ponzi shares have been screaming!!! Go long Home Depot /sarc
I work in commercial real estate, but none of my net worth is tied to it. I am mostly in cash and cash equivalents.
I would not invest in commercial real estate at this time (even though I work in the industry). How do you think a declining labor force participation rate would affect vacancy rates? Not good. And I wouldn't touch residential real estate with a 10 foot pole.
I know how to read earnings reports. In all honesty, looking at historical valuations on normalized earnings, most stocks are really expensive here. They could go higher, yes. But I don't think that's the most likely outcome over the next two years.
The labor force is " NOT" declining. It's being redistributed. Historical valuations are obsolete, when you have 5T wirth of funny money floating around.
It's time to get a real job.
Wow - you're funny. So, "this time it's different", huh? Indefinitely high valuations in all asset classes sounds like something that should last forever. So what would be your investment approach to the current climate?
What would a "real job" be?
I know people who think the stock market is going higher & they'll be wealthy. If U adjust for the effects of inflation, they're net poorer. Then, I am called a party pooper. Facts? Facts are for pessimists!
Because one thing forgotten is the offsetting Birth Death adjustment which in turn takes away hundreds of thousands of jobs. Explained here visually.
So it's really a problem with the birth/death model and how that translates into the final numbers.
Bigger question is how did the markets react each year?
And did it have a lasting impact?
“Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense.”
Buddha
Tyler,
We need a reply
http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2012/2/3/drudge,...
wow, good luck with that one.. so thay just desided to make the revison at this perticluear time, and al this is made up just to get more hit's to this site.. wow
Elaine Chao used to perform the same jobs magic for George W. Bush as Hilda Solis does for Barack Obama now. Chao was married to Mitch McConnell, so her lying about jobs came naturally. Solis is not married to a high ranking political hack, so I don't know her motivation for lying.
I went on CNBC saying the same thing and economists skewered me for using NSA numbers.
OT
StormShadow > SnakeEyes
"Biderman wonders whether the BLS is being pressured during an election year to paint an overly optimistic picture by President Obama’s administration"
anyone who is wondering is a fucktard....a president who lies about his birth and citizenship is not above lying about unemployment numbers....
Seriously, this whole seasonal adjustment BS just smacks of obfuscation. We're big boys and girls. We can handle the actual, freakin numbers.
In related news, Bitterman has been Disappeared, never to be heard from again (in an NDAA sense).
I agree these figures are getting completely fudged - just like most other stats. I work everyday with data and stats and after long enough Ive realised, with enough of it, you can make data say pretty much what you want - especially if you have the luxury of modelling it (seasonal adjusment etc.)
The really sad thing about doing it with this type of data is your just defrauding the whole population - all employed people and all unemployed people - including young unemployed people who are trying to start out in a broken jobs market - and your hiding the reality which they need to be highlighted so perhaps action can be taken.
Then I think to myself why concern myself with all this Bullsh*t? The markets ripped on the initial headline but notice how after the traders had time to sift through the small print they didnt sell the market down in the afternoon......
Alien IQ your definately right - ignorence is bliss - i think the exact same thing when I see family and friends discussing economics, politics and/ or markets... Perhaps it is better to switch off - go to work - get drunk on the weekends - get laid - and stop trying to trade this circus of market!
Ask yourself - where would we all be without QE - I'd go 9,000 DJ, 4,400 FTSE! Sad
You got the response correct. Except you have to add in there - smoke a little weed.
Look at the charts. Unemployment actually increased 849,000 in January!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/02/03/unemployment-actually-rose-in-january-media-screams-unemployment-rate-declines-is-increasing-unemployment-something-to-brag-about/
Warren the "turn coat" sell out Buffett. That worthless " TROGLODYTE" is probably bouncing around his rubber room, with a BAC stamped body condom on!
Man, it's so obvious! You all are wrong. It's about the POWER of positive thinking! When all those CEOs and employers saw these numbers in the morning, they've got nervous. They think now, hard! if they don't start to hire people right now, there won't be any unemployed American workers left in 2-3 months! They've got to start hiring! And in October, just before the elections, there will be a full employment. Everybody will have a job and FED will print salaries. That's the FED's mandate.
Talk to your friends Alpha, Gamma, Delta, before you comment.
This guy calls himself an expert? Go to BLS and search up non-seasonally adjusted non-farms. 2-3 Million people quit, get fired, laid off, reitre and take their pension every year in January vs the number that worked in November. Uhh... we've been doing this for years, and we still havn't noticed this seasonality happens every year. Sure there might be some 100K massaging over a few months, but there's always a reversion to mean.
If you want to be concerned about employment, look at the quality of jobs that are replacing the ones lost. Lower paying (ie. globally competitive wages), more part-time. Those of you in favour of government austerity, remember it and the financials you so hate seem to be the last bastion of middle class jobs (sure there's healthcare and military, but if you cut gov, you cut them). I agree both areas need to be a significantly lower proportion of the economy, but like a hedge, you trim it gradually over the years, not cut it down to the roots in hopes that growth will boom back. Bear in mind, resources always get reallocated within a well structured economy, but it takes time.
Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject FONT SIZE: Change Output Options: From: To: include graphsData extracted on: February 3, 2012 (5:50:09 PM)
Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National)Series Id: CEU0000000001
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Super Sector: Total nonfarm
Industry: Total nonfarm
NAICS Code: -
Data Type: ALL EMPLOYEES, THOUSANDS
Download: Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 2002 128602 129069 129673 130257 131024 131404 129960 130044 130557 131227 131345 130933 130341 2003 128248 128660 129148 129801 130559 130889 129550 129601 130253 131045 131208 131026 129999 2004 128365 128976 130019 131140 132047 132495 131334 131352 132067 133050 133301 133075 131435 2005 130369 131195 132038 133247 134059 134728 133665 133910 134533 135260 135817 135615 133703 2006 132962 133887 134868 135780 136584 137084 135908 136110 136776 137475 137857 137746 136086 2007 134952 135641 136533 137335 138277 138779 137379 137488 138046 138786 139090 138875 137598 2008 135840 136356 136944 137475 138045 138237 136752 136635 136685 136972 136288 135253 136790 2009 131555 131314 131175 131357 131626 131442 129844 129719 130077 130674 130721 130178 130807 2010 127309 127746 128584 129713 130833 130959 129624 129695 130191 131169 131481 131185 129874 2011 128327 129148 130061 131240 131889 132340 131038 131278 131975 132870 133172 132952(P) 131358(P) 2012 130263(P) P : preliminary
"2-3 Million people quit, get fired, laid off, reitre and take their pension every year in January vs the number that worked in November."
But... people are inhibited from quitting or retiring by the poor state of the job market. While this persists, the seasonal downblip in the non-SA figures in Jan should be smaller than it would be when the job market's healthy. There's only a couple of January's under this 'new normal' regime (Jan 11, & 10 - Jan 12 is subject to end-point problems).
Seasonal factors use filters that incorporate several years data: they can't cope with sharp behavioural changes. So the seasonal factor, although it doesn't look to have been deliberately manipulated, implicitly incorporates a behavioural assumption that's out of date, ie it's normal for lots of people quit their jobs in Jan, when in fact now they're probably too scared to.
As a result it likely adds back too many jobs. (Before we get into the birth-death adjustment...)
So how come so many here believe the statistics coming out of China?
Is this something? the March 2011 Benchmark. It looks like the BLS is doing something to the un-seasonally adjusted data beginning in Mar 2011 that starts out revising the "Total nonfarm All Employees (in thousands), Not Seasonally Adjusted" up by 15K, 30, 50, ... up to ~200K per month. This is a little outside my area, it may be innocuous.
It looks weird because they have somehow come up with a function that leaves the Bush numbers alone but improve Obama's. Not hide the decline, more like generate the heel of the hockey stick.
The fraud show in DC continues.
Buildit is right that a non-seasonally-adjusted loss of 2.9 million jobs between November and January is actually pretty good. It's much better than the Nov '10 - Jan '11 loss of 3.15 million. There's nothing suspicious about the BLS's huge seasonal adjustment. By the same token, negative seasonal adjustments downplayed job gains in September-November.
So there appears to be simply a conflict between the positive BLS numbers and the negative withholding numbers.
It's tricky though to deduce employment changes from withholding taxes, which are subject to changes in average pay (real and inflationary) and policy changes (like the payroll tax cut that went into effect Jan 1, 2011).
Probably the best measure is Medicare FICA, since it wasn't affected by the payroll tax cut (only SS FICA was), and it's a fairly simple flat tax unlike income tax. It was up 2.4% 4q11 over 4q10, a bit less than inflation. In other words it confirms that payroll income was slightly down in real terms. But can you deduce from that number whether BLS's job count, up 1.3% in 4q11 over 4q10 (simple averaging the Oct-Dec monthly numbers) is right or wrong? I don't know how.
+1
And you should have received more votes from those here who want to understand what is actually going on.
Lol! Two prize fights in one weekend.
1st: Mark to unicorn zombie banks vs. recently defunct hedge fund CDS...on the obvious impending Greek default...often over the last 12 months referred to as a "soft reprofiling."
2nd: Zerohedge/Rick Santelli vs. Reuters
http://jmp.io/sLC
I got home tonight and turned on CNBC to see the market close, just as the Larry Kudlow show was starting. He was having an orgasm. It's a "game changing jobs report" and "stocks will start soaring" and ...
"happy days are here again."
Ridiculous, isn't it?
I wander into the local chamber of commerce business roundtable about once a week in my fair city. Why? Free coffee and local business intel.
Within the last 30 days, I can at least report that of the 50 or so usual suspects that make the rounds; 1 guy flat is closing his insurance business - 3 people out of work, 2 general contractors are now standing side by side with the Mexican day labor at Home Depot, a long time local engineer is losing his house to foreclosure and plans on living at his office, an area retail cabinet maker is running his shop 24/7 with longer shifts but no new hires. The brother of one biz owner, aged 50, is moving in with his mother because his 99 weeks are gone. I guess he just does not count.
Maybe things are better in your area, but so far the Bernak Helicopter has only rescued the banks in far away lands.
I guess we are supposed to eat cake.
The Cake is a Lie.
That is hands down, the best use of a "Portal" reference I've seen yet.
Using the BLS data, the average January adjustment from 2002-2011 represented 1.592% of the unadjusted nonfarm payroll number. 1.592% of the current January 2012 unadjusted payroll number is 2,073,487 (130,263,000 x 0.01592). So, just using this average adjustment would give an adjusted payroll number of 132,336,000 (130,263,000 + 2,073,487). Comparing this adjusted number to December's adjusted nonfarm payroll of 132,166,000 shows an increase of 170,000, which is 73,000 less than the headline number of 243,000.
The adjustment used in 2009 represented 1.547% of the unadjusted number. If used today, the headline number would have shown a nonfarm payroll increase of just 113,000, less than half of the reported 243,000.
Every month the same story: numbers are fake .... it's all a lie ... so on and so forth ....
so ... this is math ... who's gonna expose this once and for all?!?!
maybe the House Republicans should hold hearings on this ... if it is so clear like everybody around here seems to think, what better way to do away with pres. Obama once and for all ....
c'mon! expose this BS .... please!!!!
Fake numbers benefit republicans too.
The lack of inspection, thought, and reasoned parsing of the fudged BLS numbers in the MSM is maddening.
If it isn't a conspiracy it's stupidity.
To say that unemployment is now 8.3% is to say that the price of gas is $1.50 a gallon (at the refinery before it is marked up, delivered, and taxed...oops...did we leave that part out?).
The government is lying to us to obscure the reality of peak oil and fiat money induced stagflation.
The oil isn't out there folks, it's locked up in tar sands or offshore. Very expensive and hard to get. But the fiat money flows like manna.
Thereby, the cost of everything you need goes up, while the quality goes down. Even while the powers that be want you to buy an overpriced McMansion in a far flung exurb, only so that you can commute 50 miles to a dead end job with fat, ugly, stupid people you hate. And if you don't like that, you can always stay at home and watch Superbowl number 200 on your flat screen TV, or better yet your iPad 10.5, and stop complaining.
All so that an Arab sheik or a Jew in a bank or a Chinaman running a slave factory can get spectacularly rich.
Fuck this country.
I met Charles Biderman about 8 months ago at a conference. I trust his numbers more than all the CRAP statistics coming out of D.C.
Biderman .... oh yeah ... a genius!!
or not:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIFGfgKHrwU&feature=re%C2%ADlated%EF%BB%BF
get over it. Just go with the flow. Does it really matter who's right and wrong anymore?
George Orwell would be proud.
There is no way in an "improving," or "healing" economy that the labor participation rate would even be falling at all, much less people bolting in historic numbers.
I think so many are stunned speechless by this.
We are truly seeing Animal Farm unfold before our very eyes:
Government statistics outright and in-your-face fraudulent with the backdrop of an unfolding police state.
We have hit that surreal point of insanity where an empire is not just in decline - the bottom is literally dropping out before our eyes, all while the cheerleaders endlessly chirp that things are getting better and better. We are completely through the looking glass of surreal insanity.
"There is no way in an "improving," or "healing" economy that the labor participation rate would even be falling at all, much less people bolting in historic numbers."
You bring up an interesting point, quacker. Analyze the raw labor data against the economic backdrop at the time (recession period for example).
And +1 on the Animal Farm comment.
I take solace in the fact that the media whores trumpeting these self-serving fictions will have no friends and no where to run when it all comes apart. Screaming their little girl screams, they will be caught by the heels and screwed up the ass.
Country Boys Can Survive. And even if we don't survive, we can die better than most of these clowns can live.
Give me a box of blue pills please .. I cannot take it anymore.
Obama: "Winning!" - with the credibility of Charley Sheen.
Of course the numbers are bullshit. I mean, come on. I think it's game over and the Empire is firmly in control.
BTFD. Or else.
Slight problem with this analysis. If you look at Table B-1 more closely the non-seasonally adjusted payrolls showed we added 4.625 million jobs in 2011, when the official seasonally adjusted BLS number shows we added 1.710 million. While both numbers are bogus for purposes of complaining we should use the non-seasonally adjusted number for January 2012 and the seasonally adjusted number for the year 2011.
Tyler ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?&v=R_EnDO9ev6g
The trimtabs idiot has been making a fool out of himself for a good 3 years now.
But, But, But Tyler said im ok Spider.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/forget-china-usa-leading-world-out-slowdown
BLS role simply should be to simply collect data and distribute it. There should be no role for making adjustments or reporting a "number".
I like these folks and I freakin' love Sausalito. I see a little sunshine hitting downtown SF in this one. Also check out the chemtrails over SF.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Ycumi2CWIbc#!
http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/LaborMarketContractsby1-2MillionPeople-ZeroHedgeReports/2012/02/03/id/428447
Zerohedge cited in headline on NewsMax (moneynews.com) re: unemployment numbers! Wow. ZH more and more frequently popping up on MSM.
This
Finally, and this is a repeat of what we said prior using SIFMA data (so originating at the US banksthemsleves), for the US unemployment to be declining, Federal tax withholdings have to be rising: there is no way around it! Instead, as the chart below shows, trailing quarterly collections have just turned negative.
/thread
See...The proof is in the Tax Pudding.