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The True Value Of Money (Literally)

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As a follow up bonus from the Artemis presentation earlier, we present this chart which answers the age old question: what is the true value of money? It does so in quite a literal fashion, and explains why Kyle Bass is such a fan of nickels...

As a reminder, from Michael Lewis' book on Kyle Bass:

On nickels:

He still owned stacks of gold and platinum bars that had
roughly doubled in value, but he remained on the lookout for hard
stores of wealth as a hedge against what he assumed was the coming
debasement of fiat currency. Nickels, for instance.

 

“The value of the metal in a nickel is worth six point eight cents,” he said. “Did you know that?”

 

I didn’t.

 

“I just bought a million dollars’ worth of them,” he said, and then,
perhaps sensing I couldn’t do the math: “twenty million nickels.”

 

“You bought twenty million nickels?”

 

“Uh-huh.”

 

“How do you buy twenty million nickels?”

 

“Actually, it’s very difficult,” he said, and then explained that he
had to call his bank and talk them into ordering him twenty million
nickels. The bank had finally done it, but the Federal Reserve had its
own questions. “The Fed apparently called my guy at the bank,” he says.
“They asked him, ‘Why do you want all these nickels?’ So he called me
and asked, ‘Why do you want all these nickels?’ And I said, ‘I just
like nickels.’”

 

He pulled out a photograph of his nickels and handed it to me. There
they were, piled up on giant wooden pallets in a Brink’s vault in
downtown Dallas.

 

“I’m telling you, in the next two years they’ll change the content
of the nickel,” he said. “You really ought to call your bank and buy
some now.”

 

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Fri, 11/04/2011 - 18:56 | 1846879 DosZap
DosZap's picture

bob,

Whats ILLEGAL mean these days?.

Melt em, exactly what he will do.(or sell by the pound).

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 19:00 | 1846888 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

1. adjective forbidden by law or statute

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/illegal

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 19:26 | 1846959 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

It doesn't feel like illegal is the same for everyone.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 19:49 | 1847038 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

It's not, but when has illegal ever been the same for everyone? 

The world has always been full of judicial inequity. Life ain't fair.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 19:58 | 1847065 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Hey Mr Obvious, life ain't fair huh?  Wow, I just got hit with a lightening bolt and now I can see clearly, thanks.  But you know what, laws are suppossed to be fair, and since you are so good with definitions, maybe you should look up the definition of LAW.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 19:50 | 1847041 Wildcat711
Wildcat711's picture

It used to be illegal to smelt 90% silver half dollars too...until "bad money chased out good."  He'll double his money, atleast.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 20:16 | 1847111 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Seen the exchande rate if a silver dollar recently?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 17:33 | 1846634 navy62802
navy62802's picture

On a side note, it costs more to produce these coins than the coins are even worth. In 2010, it cost the US mint 1.79 cents to produce and distribute a penny, 9.22 cents for a nickel. Since 2001, the cost of producing and distributing pennies has more than doubled; for nickels, it has nearly tripled.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 17:34 | 1846644 DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

God, no fucking wonder why our shithead government borrows 40 cents for every dollar it spends.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 17:37 | 1846654 DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

Actually, maybe that is his strategy.  He could sell the coins back to the government and say, look it costs you 9.22 cents a nickel, I'll sell you 20 million of them for 8.22 cents...

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 17:42 | 1846665 navy62802
navy62802's picture

I think these numbers lend more support to his argument that they'll change the composition of the nickel. The same might be done with the penny ... but they also may simply stop producing them (though I'm not sure how that would work with transactions).

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:03 | 1847226 topshelfstuff
topshelfstuff's picture

already have

 

http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h111-6162&tab=summary

H.R. 6162: Coin Modernization, Oversight, and Continuity Act of 2010

12/14/2010--Public Law. (This measure has not been amended since it was passed by the House on September 29, 2010. The summary of that version is repeated here.) Coin Modernization, Oversight, and Continuity Act of 2010 - Requires the Secretary of the Treasury to report biennially to specified congressional committees on production costs for each circulating coin, cost trends, and possible new metallic materials or technologies for the production of circulating coins. Requires detailed recommendations in such reports for: (1) changes to the metallic content of circulating coins; (2) changes in coin production methodology that would further reduce the costs of production; and (3) legislative changes necessary to achieve such goals. Prohibits the Secretary from including any recommendation for specifications: (1) for producing a circulating coin that would require significant change to coin-accepting and coin-handling equipment to accommodate changes to all circulating coins simultaneously; or (2) that would facilitate or allow the use of a coin with a lesser value produced, minted, or issued by another country, or the use of any token or other easily or regularly produced metal device of minimal value, in the place of a circulating coin produced by the Secretary. Authorizes the Secretary, in order to complete the first biennial report and to develop and evaluate the use of new metallic materials for circulating coin production, to: (1) conduct any appropriate testing of appropriate coinage metallic materials; and (2) work with federal and nonfederal entities, including independent research facilities or suppliers of the metallic material used in volume production of circulating coins.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:02 | 1847430 navy62802
navy62802's picture

damn ... I had no idea.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 20:50 | 1847207 navy62802
navy62802's picture

While I have done no detailed analysis on this, I am pretty sure that the expense of producing US coinage has risen as a result of commodity price increases. Sure, there is some labor overhead, but the price increases of "junk" metals has been the largest contributor to the increased cost of production and distribution of our coins. Eventually, the price of commodities will outpace the face value of all units of US currency. At some point, cotton will become so expensive that it will cost more to produce a $100 bill than the cotton it is printed on. At some point, the quarter will cost more to produce than the copper and nickel of which it is made. Eventually, the face value of all US currency will be less than the materials of which it is made.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 17:33 | 1846642 DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

Nickel melts at 2651° F.  Between the energy used and the storage I can only wonder what the actual profit would be after the ho-bag lawyers get paid to defend agains smelting.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 17:51 | 1846695 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Copper melts at 1984oF.

It can also be purified electrochemically.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 20:06 | 1847081 knukles
knukles's picture

Kyle!  Didju hear that!  Kyle!  You Dumbfuck.  The arb on pennies is far better than nickle.  And cheaper to melt.  And less residual impurities.   hhahahahahahahahahahah

 

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhh
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhh
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhh

(Sounds like Dark Side of the Moon!)

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 17:40 | 1846661 Atlas Shrugging
Atlas Shrugging's picture

I did a little experiment a couple of months ago and took a picture of a $20 gold piece next to a $20 bill, as they were comparable in value for over 100 years.  Then, I put the $20 bill gold piece next to 80 $20 bills, as this was when gold was at $1600 an oz.  Now, it would take app. 90 $20 bills.  Pretty amazing visual! 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 17:48 | 1846688 Mark123
Mark123's picture

Money should be a store of value.  Central banks are openly punishing people who hold money. 

 

Imagine what a different world it would be if we used gold coins that say had a face value of $2000 for a 1 ounce coin.  Do you still think we would be falling over each other to buy crap from China we really don't need, but rather want?  And how would we feel as a nation as our gold disappeared and piled up in vaults in China?

 

Nope.  People would be way more prudent. 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 17:56 | 1846712 Yellowhoard
Yellowhoard's picture

I bought a couple thousand dollars of nickels last year.

I figured it's the world's only risk free speculation.

If the intrinsic value of nickels goes up, I win.

If the value goes down, I can take my nickels back to the bank and get my 2000 dollars back in 100s.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 20:00 | 1847069 Jones79
Jones79's picture

not really risk free, considering that if nickel and copper prices go down, yet the value of 5 cents as 5 cents diminishes, in which case you would have effectively lost purchasing power and on the commodity play, too.

 

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 10:38 | 1848367 Yellowhoard
Yellowhoard's picture

If the value of 5 cents is diminishing then it is likely that copper and nickel prices will be going up.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 18:02 | 1846730 Fate
Fate's picture

Nickels are also easier to secure.  If you have 1000 pounds of nickels, it's unlikely you will forget where you stored/hid them.  It's also unlikely thieves would bother to try to steal 1000 pounds of nickels.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 19:02 | 1846903 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

You obviously don't live in D.C..

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 18:17 | 1846775 dynomutt
dynomutt's picture

Who here has actually looked at a nickel recently?

Where on it does it read "5 cents"?

(Hint: it DOESN'T!)

The value of "one nickel" is negotiable.  It could be set by the appropriate entities to have an exchange rate of $1000 to 1 nickel if they so chose.  Just because it's been well ingrained that the value is 5 cents doesn't make it rigidly so.

The name of the coin only implies that it contains the element nickel, unlike the penny (pence) as a unit of currency, or the dime (dismes), or the quarter dollar, or the half dollar, as a fractional unit of currency, the nickel stands alone.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 18:31 | 1846820 searcher68
searcher68's picture

You're right, it doesn't say "5 cents". It DOES, however, say "FIVE CENTS". Hmmm... perhaps you forgot to look at both sides?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 18:50 | 1846850 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

It reads "5 cents" on the back under* the photo of Monticello. On the bottom of the coin it also states "United States Of America" as in property of the United States Government.

This info was from a 2008 nickel.

And for those who don't have a nickel and don't know where to find a picture of one on the internet:

http://tinyurl.com/3pkvh6p

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 18:57 | 1846881 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Firstly, it does say "five cents" on the back, and secondly, AGEs say "50 dollars" on them.  Markings don't matter when the metal content is worth more than the face value.  Of course, should the value of the metal fall below the face value, lots of them come into circulation, as bad money drives out good.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 18:33 | 1846817 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

All this aside, I doubt that - at a post-collapse green market - a bucketfull of nickels will get you so much as a turnip. It'll be gold, silver, bullets, or starve.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 18:59 | 1846889 tmosley
tmosley's picture

How about a half bucket full of copper, and a half bucket full of nickel metal?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:59 | 1847414 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

How about a five-gallon bucket, with a stack of nickles and a stack of iron hanging in them, both attached to wires, attached to a charge controller and a windmill or solar panels?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 18:36 | 1846826 captain sunshine
captain sunshine's picture

I have thosands in nickels, very heavy. You can get them from your bank in cute bricks of $100.00. Make a great stocking stuffer.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 20:12 | 1847101 knukles
knukles's picture

Now that's lookin' on the bright side of things....

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 18:41 | 1846838 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Seems to me they did this in ancient Rome; didn't work out so well for them either.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 18:43 | 1846844 ImNotExposed
ImNotExposed's picture

I didn't know the Fed minted coins.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 18:52 | 1846864 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

Here we are trying to push commodities as money, and then BOOM, money turns around and BECOMES a commodity.

 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 18:54 | 1846870 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Use your cute little bricks of $100.00 nickel boxes to wall up your windows and safe room when you are fighting off the zombie hordes of Americans looking for food because the supply chain has crashed and burned. No credit, no nothing. No McDonalds feeding the masses - panic, mayhem, and destruction. I prefer lead in little copper dinner jackets. There's a precious metal combo that's hard to beat!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 18:55 | 1846876 SunBlaster
SunBlaster's picture

90.8*0.05=4.54

8.54-4.54=4.00

4.00*220264=881057

thus 100toness worth of nickels will yeld $881057 in profit, minus smelting and brockarge.

 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 19:01 | 1846899 tmosley
tmosley's picture

"minus smelting and brokerage"

So basically nothing, then?

Coin hoarders are betting on future inflation, of course.  They aren't looking for simple arbitrage.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 19:35 | 1846951 BlakeFelix
BlakeFelix's picture

Nickels position you pretty well for deflation too. It's hard for me to see a big loss in nickels. Hard to see much of a win though either. Assuming you can trade them at melt, which you sure can't now.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 18:59 | 1846883 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Why don't people get a grip on this whole value of the dollar and devaluation thing and Gold. Really! The boomers are retiring and they are going to need money in the bank to draw on in retirement. So what if the country is loaded to the gills with dollar bills. So what. It will not necessarily be in the M2 money supply. It could, in theory, be on loan to emerging markets. Do you really think that retirees are gonna be spending like they did in the 70's??? Do you?? For God's sake get a grip. Print away.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 19:35 | 1846992 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Good points but where are you going with this?  You don't think retirees will be spending money?  Housing is at a low, so buy buy buy!  They want to retire with a Lexus.  They want gold watches.  They want things, shiny things.  The boomers invented the consumer age.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 20:06 | 1847085 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

They want titanium knees and stainless steel hips. They want a garden full of cannabis and poppies. They want a grow room in the basement to supplement social security and make up for all the money they lost on their 401k's and home equity.

Mostly they want to be left in peace and to die with a smile.

I don't think most will get what they want.

Too many folks and too little petroleum, the dream flickers as the shadows grow closer.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 20:12 | 1847103 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

If that is all that is wanted I think we can make it work.  Unfortunately, I think there are many out there that want to eat out at resturuants everynight, travel, and buy a new car every five years.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 20:14 | 1847094 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

I am at that age and I can tell you from experience that most my age already have what they want and I got some minimal confirmation of this from respondents when I made this same comment on another site. In fact, when a market bubble has run its course it is because the demand has dried up. Be it for houses or whatever. I bought retirement real estate during the crisis 2008-2009. The developers had no trouble unloading the 260 lake lots. And the banks had no problems loaning the money. Does that tell you that boomers are in the market for retirement property? Are they getting ready? Are we not at the leading edge demographically now?

Now the boomers have a large effect on the economy and cover the demand for most marketable items. Sure some want to travel when they retire(most want peace and quiet). Some want a big house(most downsize) Some may want to start a business because their health care is now covered by medicare. Some(most) probably want to continue to work part time. Some, unfortunately, will have to continue to work full time. But almost everyone will want to have a nest egg to add to Social Security income. That means a lot of money invested. This is part of the problem now with the instability in the Markets (If you believe Minsky when he said too much money in the markets destabilizes them) Too much money from 401ks and Rich People's hedge funds. But don't believe me or Minsky. Rent or buy the PBS video on Long Term Capital Management. They had so much money invested then that they destabilized markets then. And after they went belly up? at least 50 hedgefunds sprang up in their place. So what, if I am correct, does that tell you?  It tells me that there will be cheap money around for a long time. There will be reduced demand for a long time. The next generation that would be using their money to buy things will be paying more taxes to support me and others which will put pressure on govt to downsize.(laying off more) So with less Demand and lots of cheap money out there what do you think the over capacity in production right now will be doing. Modernizing? Why? (Uh possibly laying off more?) Another leg down maybe?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 20:18 | 1847115 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Touching, but debt is not money.  Just because you owe money on your loan does not mean you have created wealth.  Just because you and others think you have retirement coming a la SS does not mean it is.  There is no such thing as debt money, it is an amalgamation.

So, with debt (not money) over leveraged in the system, yes, it will collapse.  Is that what you are saying?

Expectations are a bitch, and so is debt.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 20:44 | 1847182 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

I don't owe money on any loan. I paid cash for my retirement lot. Therefore I have created less money to be loaned and added stability to the system. The boomers are the biggest voting block out there. Bigger than the NRA and they have tried for years to get rid of the NRA, but I understand betrayed expectations.
See: http://www.fedsmith.com/article/2324/will-government-repay-its-debt-social-security.html

As a boomer my conscience is clear. We paid for our social security with greater FICA taxes then. The ones who were betrayed were those that will be paying for the robbery of the social security system by George Bush the first and those that followed him.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 20:47 | 1847196 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Most boomers have huge debts, and wish to keep piling up debt.  Most people view debt as money, after all.  And just because you feel you deserve something does not mean you will recieve it.  No one will see SS cash after a few short years, because the fund has been in the red since '08.  It is too bad for boomers that the majority were not watching their backsides (and still aren't), but no one should cry over spilled milk.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:07 | 1847234 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Don't know where you get your statistics but according to this: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/housedebt/

we are back to about 1998 total household debt levels and I don't know where you got your crystal ball concerning Soc Security but the last I heard Soc Sec will be in the black for some time to come (about 2036)

See: http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/RetirementandWills/CreateaPlan/12-fixes-for-social-security.aspx

 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:21 | 1847260 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Bruce has reported that the SSTF has been drawing in the red since '08.  And as far as private debt, the leverage is insane, no matter if it is at '98 levels or what.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:12 | 1847385 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Don't know if you mean Bruce Krasting(whom I respect greatly) and of course the lingo associated with the funding is a little unclear to me, but there are a lot of sources of trusted info out there. Here is another that has a few more details:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Security_debate_(United_States)

Here is where he probably got his 2008 date: http://www.cbpp.org/cms/?fa=view&id=85

according to it they will have to start adjusting the budget around 2015 (because of the already mentioned thievery of politicians) but funding sources are there and the funding super committee may actually do something constructive. Also, there is no crystal ball on what the boomers will do. I could have started drawing SS some time ago, but did not. I have a job that I like and am postponing going onto the system. I work with a guy who is 70 and he only recently started drawing his SS. Boomers who are in debt may postpone going onto SS simply to maximize their income when they do go onto SS. But there is no way a politician is going to suggest ending SS. He would be committing political suicide.

Yes, there are people massively in debt. How many are boomers I do not know. I suspect as people get older they get wiser. Also, different areas of the country have different attitudes concerning debt. According to A. Gary Shilling we will be deleveraging for some time and throughout that time there will be less demand. Less demand means less production and less jobs. This will be with us for some time, but that doesn't mean it is the end of the world yet anyhow. Europe could sink a lot of US investment banks because of CDS and that could be catastrophic, but this country has been through worse times. We were far more in debt after the Revolution and we survived.

I lived and invested during the 70's. I still have a little silver that I bought then. PMs are a lot easier to get than to get rid of. When they start to come down they come down quickly. These times are exactly the opposite than then. Then was inflation (wage inflation) Now is deflation. It is a lot harder to solve deflation than inflation. I'm no economist, but it is clearly related to imbalances between production and demand or consumption. Then we had a lot of demand as boomers wanted everything and production was hamstrung with regulation and taxation. In the book "The Age of Greed" it says that CEOs began looking for ways around the regs and the taxes. That trend has resulted in the current problem. Production ramped up and went cheaper by going over seas and every western nation built plants in China and like a lot of things it overshot and now we have a big overcapacity of production. China is wrestling with converting their economy to a domestic one to use it up. It won't last much longer there. A year or so maybe. Then chaos possibly.

Real inflation here probably will not begin until 2016 or so, but that is just my opinion. And we will probably have another huge dip in equities and metals etc. Probably within another 6 months as the US goes into another mild recession and Europe enters one as well.I may actually buy gold during the next big dip.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:56 | 1847400 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

its what i keep trying to say.............this is the end of the line. there will be no other generation?  get it yet?  do you understand what i am talking about now?  

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 23:10 | 1847534 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Yeah, I understand totally. The Bible says that the generation that is alive and understanding when the Jews come back into Jerusalem, that generation will not all pass away until all things have been fullfilled. Well, the Jews came back into Jerusalem in 1967. So what is the age of a generation? It's about 50 yrs. So 1967 plus 50 is 2017, but it says that generation will not all pass away, so it could be as late as say 2047. No one knows and do not let anyone tell you that they do, because the Bible also says no one knows the day or the hour.

Exciting ain't it?

http://www.finalgeneration.com/bible_prophecy/israel_and_the_end_times.shtml

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 02:43 | 1847997 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Sometimes 2,000 year old books are just 2,000 year old books. I wouldn't put all my money on that pony coming in 1st or even finishing.

We all need faith, nobody gets out of bed without thinking today will be better, but faith does not make dreams real. The entire concept of faith is to beleive in things that cannot be proven, that connot be quantified and reproduced. If it is facts we want than look to science not religion.

Which god shall we choose to pick the end of the world for us? Zeus? Shiva? The turtle that carries the world on his back?

we all die in our own time which is a good thing, it makes room for new souls and it moves us from this plane to wahtever next awaits us. I shan't deign to live forever especially on this rocky orb, in a infinite universe there must be more than this. Why trap yourself in a box of despair when the wider universe holds so much more.

From dust to dust, we are merely dust in transit, it was never meant to be permanent. Embrace the end, it is after all the point of all that came before it.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 19:04 | 1846907 Iceobar
Fri, 11/04/2011 - 19:07 | 1846915 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Well it's about time he figured it out.

Bart Chilton - There is Manipulation in the Silver Market

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/11/4_Bart_Chilton_-_There_is_Manipulation_in_the_Silver_Market.html

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 19:11 | 1846932 BlakeFelix
BlakeFelix's picture

1.60 a pound/mile seems very generous. At that rate moving a ton a mile would pay 3200 bucks. My dump truck is at your service.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 19:14 | 1846934 Greenlight
Greenlight's picture

U.S. nickels are 75% copper and 25% nickel.  They are an alloy called cupronickel which is rather costly to separate by melting.  There is, however, demand for cupronickel in certain industries since it is highly resistant to seawater corrosion. All they need to do is add a bit of iron and manganese to the melted-down nickels to reach industry standard.

And btw the metal value of nickels peaked a few years ago around eight cents and right now is not much more than face value.  Today it's 6.3% over face.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 19:34 | 1846973 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

I love Kyle Bass. That dude is brain surgeon smart. I hope his Texas ranch is nowhere near Glenn Becks house. Once it collapses the .50 cal potshots at Beck will necessitate all neighbors to wear multiple layers of Kevlar.

Trust me on this one.

Glenns house in the distance:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lm4LUOi7r3g

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 19:29 | 1846979 MillionDollarIdiot
MillionDollarIdiot's picture

Hang on a min, this is the worlds best arbitrage opportunity surely. simpley purchase all the Nickles for 5 cents and sell them for 5.4,  correct me if im wrong but thats 8% arbitrage limited only to as many as you can get hold of! :D 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 20:11 | 1847099 dolly madison
dolly madison's picture

I have been saving all change I get for quite a while now figuring that if the world fell apart change might still be tradeable.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 20:23 | 1847105 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

 

           All Roads Lead To Gold!

A wild, wooly and volatile week to say the least.

Greece is on again off again but in the end NOT fixed in any way shape or form. Now the speculators are attacking Italy which is multiples the size of Greece and probably too big to paper over. And of course we had the MF Global saga, small enough to fail (we still don't know the longer term ramifications) but more importantly possibly a harbinger for a witch hunt to come. They are alleged to have comingled client monies to save their own bacon. How much money? $600 Million or $1.5 Billion?

It does not matter because if they have done this, others certainly have too!

But this is the problem, WHO? 1 more? 5 more? Is it systemic? THIS is just another witch hunt that the fiat masters can ill afford because it all goes back to confidence.

 Confidence in the system. Confidence in your own individual investments and right down to confidence in the institution you have your capital held at. This "confidence problem" is also rearing it's ugly head elsewhere and on a VERY significant scale. With the banks themselves!

They don't trust each other and this is illustrated by European banks parking $275 Billion with the ECB itself. Add another $1.3 Trillion with the Fed and you have a pretty significant vote of "non trust". Just as individual depositors need to have trust in their own institution for it to function normally, the system itself needs trust between institutions to function normally. THIS current lack of trust is not normal and a great risk systemically.

The fiat system is as you know, a Ponzi scheme.

Ponzi schemes can continue until "confidence" breaks down. Confidence IS breaking down EVERYWHERE you look. It is breaking down on the investor level ie. where can I find a decent and solid investment, AND who do I use as an institution that I can trust?

 It is clearly breaking down between the banks because no one wants to trade or trust another bank (even overnight, and maybe because they know that they themselves are on shaky ground), so where do they keep their funds?

Confidence is also breaking down on the sovereign level, ie. who is solvent and insolvent, more importantly WHO is next? Are you getting the picture here?

"Trust" is failing!

Trust, is the only thing that has held the system together since 2007 (really since 1971). It is the bouts of "non trust" that have roiled the markets from time to time with each episode eroding confidence just a little bit more.

Which leads to the title of this piece, "All roads lead to Gold". 

 If you have your Gold in your own hands, who or what do you need to trust? (Other than your Smith and Wesson). Gold is not "backed" or "guaranteed" by any institution or government, it doesn't need to be because it has value on it's own.

 Gold IS money and it takes real capital, equipment and labor to produce. If you own Gold, you don't have to worry about "speculators setting their sights" on your investment because it was a fiscal drunken sailor. If you have it in hand or personally vaulted it in several different locations you don't have to worry that it was "comingled" to save your brain dead institution.

You don't, and won't, have to "trust anything" except Mother Nature and common sense! You can trust Mother Nature because she is very real even when governments try "disparage her reputation". They may be able to sully her short term but in the end (the end of the current system when it counts the most), Mother Nature will "reset" prices!

As this Ponzi scheme terminates, individual investors, corporate investors, banks, hedge funds, governments and even their Central Banks will ALL be buying Gold in a mad scramble towards TRUST.

THIS is not rocket science, it is merely common street sense.

If the problem is "trust" and the old system can't be "trusted", investors of every ilk will turn toward THE only investment (money) that has had "trust" for 5,000+ years.

 During a time of panic caused by a lack of trust, all investment roads will lead to Gold.

They ALWAYS have throughout history and now is no different.

The only difference today is that the "confidence bubble" that has been blown is far larger than any before and even larger than ALL previous bubbles combined.

In fact, this is the first time where the entire world got sucked into a Ponzi scheme...makes for A LOT of potential buyers of "trust" (Gold) doesn't it?

www.lemetropolecafe.com

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 20:30 | 1847146 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

brinks will take good care of kyle's stuff until one day..........yes one day............

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 20:32 | 1847154 mt paul
mt paul's picture

will trade nickles  ...

for fermented walrus flippers... 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 20:38 | 1847176 Peter_Griffin
Peter_Griffin's picture

I sort and hold onto all the pre-82 pennies, nickles, and pre-65 quarters and dimes I come across, but I think it would take an idiot to buy a million dollars worth of nickles.  Putting a lot of fate in the government allowing smelting of coins, at the same time tying up a lot of capital.  Turns out, some people do have to much money.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:25 | 1847265 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

"Turns out, some people do have to much money."

A friend of mine once described it to me. He called it Nigger Rich. New money is always stupid money.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:33 | 1847548 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Only when it isn't earned.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 03:51 | 1850081 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Nobody earns money. Weath beyond what you can produce yourself is always other peoples resources. If you can't build a bugatti then it's not yours.

If you can't pay a house off in 30 years when you could build one in 5 then guess what. You're getting fucked.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 20:47 | 1847197 Pemaquid
Pemaquid's picture

Diversification!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:03 | 1847225 nickels
nickels's picture

Like I said previously, Scrooge McDuck was right. Melt down nickels? No. When the stuff hits the fan who's going to make change for a gold doubloon when you want a dozen eggs from the guy down the road or a chain saw  part from sombody who has a spare? Nickels are money that you can actually spend as needed.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:08 | 1847235 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

coinflation.com.

Tells canadian and amereican coin melt values.

Great site.

to learn circulation coin melt values.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:09 | 1847236 PiranhaEatingGo...
PiranhaEatingGoldfish's picture

That was a great link. Never heard about this in my history classes. After reading this my feeling about Washington and Sam Adams is that they were complete dicks and seem to have been little better than the tyrants they overthrew a few years earlier. However, my faith in the complete and untarnished reputation of Thomas Jefferson as a brilliant hero of the people that America has disgracefully under rated remains intact. Jefferson it seems was not too foolish to see the beginnings of the raising of the head of corruptible power in the newly won America. Too bad we don't learn more about him.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:10 | 1847238 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

Wrap your brain around this. On a gold standard you could change out 2,000 copper pennies for a double eagle (almost 1 oz of gold). Today you would need about 66,000 copper pennies to equal the value of 1 oz of gold.

I know. It doesn't make any sense in a rational world but it makes perfect sense in a Central Planned Ponzi system that cheats, robs and taxes the subjects,  wages war on nations, bails out failed industries, bails out banker colleagues, exports jobs to slave labor nations,  bombards the people with propaganda and fear, ect. Nothing makes sense or functions naturally in our world and that's why the truth here is an even scarcer commodity than gold because if we had to find out the TRUE value of shit today people would have a fucking heart attack because most of the people in this country don't produce much of anything of value yet they consume quite a bit. No one will admit this though because we like to imagine ourselves as deserving and fear the day that things could be set right like they are supposed to be. It's quite depressing. It's why we did Libya and Iraq. It's why Iran is going down next. When they subdue every last corner of the earth (with borrowed money of course) created out of thin air they can finally relax and let it all collapse because they will own everything and everyone and won't need to go to all the trouble of propping up a phony money system that allowed them to steal everything in the world. Prisoners don't need money anyway. Makes you sick when a few worms can get the keys to the Kingdom by illegally telling us they have the power to print unlimited paper debt money and with it buy unlimited war, entire news corporations, entire universities and eventually take over the entire fucking world. Oh yeah. I'm in a bad mood tonight. 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:47 | 1847354 jack stephan
jack stephan's picture

Just another fat fuck walkin' out of the casino with a suitcase.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:20 | 1847506 ivars
ivars's picture

Little bit longer perspective on Silver prices(till Feb1 2012):

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=820#p34947

And Gold prices (till feb 1 2012:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=820#p34949

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:21 | 1847513 ricocyb13
ricocyb13's picture

there is much much better content and analyses of Kyle Bass than the article posted here on ZH.

This is worth reading:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/20660727/Hayman-October-Letter

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 00:21 | 1847811 dwilso39
dwilso39's picture

Rember:

It's still a felony to melt US coins (i.e. - destroy Government property)!

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 10:11 | 1848314 Thomas Gresham ...
Thomas Gresham b. 1519's picture

Ah, and history repeats itself...

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 11:25 | 1848475 NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

I'm sure someone has already pointed this out.   You can get the raw metal value of all US coins, as well as CA and others coming soon, updated daily at www.coinflation.com.  Handy stuff to know.

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 12:01 | 1848541 par4
par4's picture

He should buy Rai Stones.

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 13:47 | 1848794 Dr. Nancy
Dr. Nancy's picture

All that's happening is predictable, as there are 7 stages that every major economy goes through. Those who know how it works profit & massive wealth is transferred to them. Several months ago I learned this information from a millionaire whose site I found & am sharing it with everyone I know.

His free video

"How To Create Incredible Wealth in Today's Economic Crisis"

is at:

http://theelevationgroup.net/presentation/register.php?a_aid=160667&a_bi...

Hope this info helps everyone as much as it has me.

Dr. Nancy

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 18:01 | 1849349 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Kyle Bass rocks!

 

 

Thu, 11/10/2011 - 16:57 | 1867574 Strongbad
Strongbad's picture

The chart listing the nickel from "1982-2011" makes no sense, since the nickel was the same composition before that year.  The only time it has been altered was from 1943-1945 during the war when it was 35% silver.  Other than that, the 1938-2011 Jefferson nickels are all the same from a metal standpoint.

Thu, 11/10/2011 - 16:57 | 1867575 Strongbad
Strongbad's picture

double-post

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!