Turd Ferguson: The Inexorable March Higher For Precious Metals

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Chris Martenson

Turd Ferguson: The Inexorable March Higher For Precious Metals

Turd Ferguson is a funny guy.

But there's one thing this irreverent, acerbically goofball forecaster is stone-cold serious about: the need to build personal exposure to the precious metals.

For him, it's a straightforward mathematical certainty that the global economy must collapse under the weight of the excessive (and exponentially compounding) credit amassed over the past several decades. The debt is simply too large to be serviced.

As a growing number of analysts (including Chris) are predicting, Turd sees the replacement of the world's current monetary regimes as the endgame to this story. And he believes we are watching that endgame unfold in real-time now.

In this interview with Chris, Turd discusses his reasons why gold and silver offer the best prospect for preserving wealth through the coming devaluation of world currencies, despite his strong conviction that the markets for these metals are heavily price-manipulated.

In fact, it's precisely due to this manipulation that Turd is able to predict short-term price movements in gold and silver as confidently as he does:

Believe me, if you looked at my trading account and looked at my success in trading corn, or soybeans, or crude, or something like that: I make choices just as badly as the average guy.  The reason why I am successful in forecasting gold and silver is because they are manipulated.

 

Because once you understand that the bullion banks, particularly JPMorgan in silver, are in there trying to stack the deck in their favor, then you use some simple technical analysis.  And you begin to see where they're going to act, where they're going to place some sell orders to try to start cascading waterfall selling by tripping stocks.  It's not real hard.  I mean, its pretty basic stuff.  But once you admit to yourself that if this does take place, it makes forecasting where price is going pretty easy...

 

We see this quite often where the prices of gold and silver – they decline rather sharply after hours, after COMEX trading hours, on the Globex because volume is so thin there.  A little bit of money thrown at the market – any new paper shorts can have a rather dramatic impact...

 

And that is where the manipulation has a lasting impact.  And you can't get that money back... And it takes a whole bunch of new buy orders, a whole bunch of new speculative longs and commercial longs to come in and bid it back up to where it was before that raid. And so, they're always going to be in there.  Again, I guess the ultimate question is at who's behest are they doing this?  But, nonetheless, they're in there controlling price, managing the assent, if you will, to create this illusion that there's still confidence in the dollar, that all is well.  And that it's okay to go buy a new car. 

Turd sees the precious metals as a true barometer of the dollar's devaluation as the Fed pursues its policy of negative real interest rates -- which is challenging for the average consumer to see, when the dollar may strengthen on a relative basis versus other fiat currencies and the government-published CPI is artificially low. In his opinion, the government is well aware of the signaling function of the PMs, and therefore feels it needs to manage their ascent in as drawn-out and orderly a process possible in order to prevent the frogs in the pot (i.e., the citizenry) from noticing that the water is getting a lot hotter.

The important mission here, in Turd's mind, is to realize that the economic reality we have come to accept as "normal" is over, and to take protective action. And once you have done so, to try to help those around you wake up to that fact -- a major challenge, as most people don't want to think about it, and the entrenched status quo powers are aggressively marketing that 'return to normalcy' is just around the corner:

The last thing I would add to that, Chris, and one that's challenging, and I'm sure you've seen this too in working with your subscribers is where we are headed is unlike anywhere where we've been, at least in recent memory. I mean, there may be some octogenarians out there that remember what it was like before the Great Depression and during the Great Depression and before World War II. But it's a world like that where we're headed to.

 

All I've ever known, all my friends and family, even my parents really have ever known is this hegemonic United States that was the world power, and provided the world's reserve currency.  And we could print as much as we wanted to, and then export the inflation to all the other poor staff that had to – took our dollar.  And so we bought their cheap stuff.  And those days are over, and it's a really hard concept.

 

If you haven't had personal experience with something else, it's a really hard concept to get your arms around.  That the United States isn't going to be this huge economic and military superpower.  Just because it always has been doesn't mean that it always will be.  And as we talked about, the numbers and the fundamentals suggest that it's not always going to be.

 

And so you got to kind of prepare yourself that tomorrow's not going to be like today, that we're in a new paradigm.  And try to intellectually figure out, okay, how do I survive and prosper in this new world knowing that it's coming?  And that's what we try to do. I know that's what you try to do.  And it's our job, Chris, to try and help as many as we can. 

Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Turd Ferguson (runtime 47m:19s): 

 

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DoChenRollingBearing's picture

EXCELLENT for bringing Turd Ferguson's article to ZH!  Kudos, Tyler.

ZeeGerman's picture

Thank you Tyler for giving visibility to a great man, worried about all of us!

phyuckyiu's picture

Amazing how many bloggers started as just posters here on Zero Hedge. Only Turd and Gonzalo seem to have gained major traction after they left, but i'm sure there are many more (do chen, rocky, etc). Feed the Turd!

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

And Bob has his blog, what's it called,,,, tradelikeyourassisonfire.blogspot.com.

SilverIsKing's picture

My new blog is coming soon.  It's called,

"ifmyasswasreallyonfirewouldibethinkingabouttradingstockswithaburningass.com"

bob_dabolina's picture

Really Lennon Hendrix? How much pleasure can you derive by thinking and talking about me while I'm not present? It must be enjoyable.

Perhaps a more efficient allocation of your time would be putting on a nice shirt and going to the local bar and chasing some women? If you're not busy talking/thinking about me you might actually go home with a girl (or guy whatever your thing is)

It is Friday night no? 

If you're married you might be better off focussing on the needs of your woman. 

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Sometimes I joke with my friends.  Learn to take a joke.

I'm heading out to my buddy's house after I make this post.  He is tapping a keg.  I just got back from a restaruant where I made two lady freinds (minus the wait staff, they were friendly as well). 

Being social has never been a problem of mine, which is one of the many reasons I like it here.  I have made some of my best friends on this site.  Anyway, take care Bob.

JW n FL's picture

 

 

I would call bob a Fag but I dont want to disrepect any of my gay friends here..

so asshole while have to suffice!

Mr. Hendrix you just keep on keepin on, he will get his in the end.. I got $5 on it!

SwingForce's picture

..........................................................zilch

trav7777's picture

I thought his blog was "tradepretendmoney.blogspot.com"?

piceridu's picture

Yeah I think you're right trav, or it might be: ikeepfuckinglyingafterimcaughtredhanded.blogspot.com

Robot Traders Mom's picture

@phyuckyiu-I like what Turd, Lira, and the rest are doing-spreading the word we are in trouble.

 

That being said (and don't get me wrong, I've 'fed' the Turd and gone to the website many times), but the aspect of trading precious metals is ludicrous. If you have a 401k or retirement plan that you can't or don't want to go to physical, buy Sprott/PSLV (or AGQ if that is your thing) and sit on it. You are just going to get yourself in trouble entering and leaving the market.

 

I also think it sends the wrong message of market timing for physical. If you have cash sitting around, it is always a good time to buy physical! You don't wait around for an internet guru named Turd to tell you that. Like I said, it is great there are people spreading the word about the inevitable collapse. Just don't base any investment decisions about what they say is coming. If you have the means, buy it now and sit on it. Anyone that claims to know when the collapse will happen or when the market is going to be parabolic is just guessing.

JW n FL's picture

 

 

I would hope that everyone here..

has:

1. Silver for day to day.. or the next great big run up, it works either way.

2. Gold.. becuase it is Money (so is silver dont start).

3. Guns and Ammo (and I dont mean the fucking magazine)

4. Medicine! all you can get of what you need.. and dont be affraid to hire some young punks if the world goes down the shitter to provide you with a LOT more of what you need.

5. Power.. SOLAR BITCHEZ!! (Physical) or Wind and my Favorite Water / Hydro (you need water to drink any way, why not combine the two and be a Double TIGER WINNER!

6. Water / Dry Goods.. yada yada yada.

 

But.. Silver is WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY more scarse than gold.. and guns and ammo.. eveything else if you had too.. you could free from being captive elsewhere.

 

phyuckyiu's picture

Rt's Mom, I talked my mom into buying a decent amount of silver sprott when the premium was only at 9%. She thought I was nuts at the time, but she pays closer attention now. My friends and I prefer coins. Cheers.

Solid Gold Bubble's picture

Don't forget SGS - who has recently moved off Blogspot onto his <a href="http://www.silvergoldsilver.com">own site</a>.

 

 

oddjob's picture

SGS has ZERO original content except profanity.

nope-1004's picture

Agreed.  The Andrew Dice Clay shtick will die quickly.  I think Dice could spell, though.

 

bernorange's picture

Hear, hear.  Agree 100%.

topcallingtroll's picture

If you live in peru I may come visit someday. You and your factory woyld be easy to find.

Peru is the boring old man of latin america. I need hard partying hot nights with latinas at the clubs though!

I do want to chew the leaf!

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ top!

I live here in the USA.  But, we go to Peru twice a year, me to visit customers and plan our purchases.  My wife goes to see family and friends.  We are going down there soon for a couple of weeks.

Let me tell you something.  Peruvians KNOW HOW TO PARTY!  A 4:00 AM finish is almost typical.  You would really enjoy that there in Peru!

The coca leaf is not impressive.  Really to get any noticeable buzz, you also have to put something alkaline there in your mouth (they use some kind of ashes), ick.  And in Lima, no one chews the leaf, it's considered real hick behavior.  But, the trendy "Coca Sour" (Peru's Pisco Sour made with some coca) is something you should at least try.

I think you know my email.  Let me know if/when you are heading down there.

To Everyone: Peru is an extremely interesting country, they are relatively friendly to tourists.  I met the girl who became my wife there...

EDIT:

They are the world's 5th largest producer of gold.

 

centerline's picture

Is that where they wear funny hats?  It would be cool to wear a funny hat.

philipat's picture

The main reason why Gold is being manipulated by the CB through the PD's is undoubtedly to prevent other CB's, China in particular, from putting its reserves into Gold rather than green. That would leave only the US to buy its own debt. Gold and inflation would eventually have to respond accordingly and green would be soon worthless.

PS. Green as in dollars not soylent. Although................................

Banksters's picture

HI FIVE TO DA TURD,

 

BITCHEZZZZZZZ!

truont's picture

Let's hear it for the Turd!

High Plains Drifter's picture

hey chris.  would you please tell turd that they finally got around to killing that wascally osama the other day,? 

 

thanks pal....

Texas Ginslinger's picture

Turd...!!!!!!!

Thanks for all you do, man.......

Doña K's picture

You rang?

My fear is that the Bernak has unlimited amounts of digital money and he can supress gold forever. Even though, I do have a chunk, I am afraid to buy anymore.

Not sure what's going on. Turd's thesis, is theoretically intact.

 

centerline's picture

+1, I visit the Turd site regularly.  Junior Turdite status.  About to convert some long dated bonds for my kids college funds into PMs.  The writing is on the wall folks.  2011 has already said everything you need to know about the extents to which the maniacs will go to preserve the status quo.

Dolar in a vortex's picture

Turd = Big hat, no cattle ... but plenty of PM.

Yardstick of Civilization's picture

Honest question: If the system is imploding because of too much debt that is denominated in fiat currency, the won't actual paper money (which is in relatively short supply compared to electronic money/debt) become extremely valuable?  Isn't the whole thesis deflationary?

topcallingtroll's picture

ONLY IF CENTRAL BANKS DONT MONETIZE.

I am counting on some monetization of debt, some deflation, and hoping for time, productivity, and growth to do the rest.

I believe in a long slow muddle through to a slightly lower standard of living. No serious deflation. No serious inflation.

common_sense's picture

How much time bank system will be support without financement??

B9K9's picture

What you're observing is the middle-game: default & print. TPTB manage effective default through means testing, raising of age limits, etc, in addition to selected actual hard defaults (ie Greece et al "50% haircuts"). Then they offset the deflation via printing in order to maximize the appearance of stability, resulting in this seemingly weird b-flation where both the deflationists (Stoneleigh, Denninger) and inflationists (Lira) are wrong.

But, it's important to note that it is still only the middle-game. That is, it attempts to manage the route towards our inevitable conclusion, which is foreordained by the simple mathematics of exponents. It really is a pity Mako got banned - he was the one guy who rightly pointed out that once that first fateful step is made by using interest bearing credit, the death certificate can be printed, with only the date to be applied at the appropriate time.

Now, the Chosen know this perfectly well. I mean, it's a craft that has been perfected by them for over 5,000 years. So when they launch another credit cycle, they already know the steps which lie ahead in terms of the middle-game we're currently experiencing, and then the eventual end.

The end comes when everyone's purchasing power has declined to such a degree that instincts born of pure animal competition for scarce resources reasserts its dominance. In other words, war. Any review of history reveals this pattern - it's a lock-solid sure thing. So the key aspects to understand are: (a) how the credit-money system works in the first place; (b) where we are in any particular cycle; and (c) how to possibly survive the coming blast.

nope-1004's picture

Don't think so.  Shit, if Robo ain't banned, then no one can be banned.

Mako made some good points, but he also was extreme in calling Tyler out on where we are in the cycle:  Inflation / Deflation thing.  But, in all fairness, I don't believe he was banned.  Like Cheeky, he's either now writing for ZH or just said the heck with it.

 

centerline's picture

I enjoyed reading Mako's posts and learned alot - but, he lost it and bit at the Tylers.  Everyone lost in his banishment.  But, he did piss off the host.  Bad form - but understandable when viewed from the perspective of frustration.  Once you look the truth in the face, you are never the same again.  I have struggled for a couple years now to just keep my head up at work at times.

JW n FL's picture

 

 

I dont think Tyler banned Mako..

1st off Tyler is a BIG BOY and has a set of Ballz to Match.. Tylers Posts (not the filler news updates) are Fucking Toothy and Worthy of ALL the attention plus..

so, Tyler would not Ban anyone for having a good point or a bad point for that matter..

I am still here and I piss off everyone!

So Mako is out there! come one Mako! show yourself! save Tylers good name! I know you want too!

Frank Owen's picture

Tyler's good name doesn't need saving, ZH is solid for letting people speak... However, there are lines that are not to be crossed and I am pretty sure I watched mako cross one of them some time ago.

defender's picture

I think that I remember a "screw you guys, I'm going home" post from him just before he disappeared.  Basically he said that he was tired of repeating himself and banging his head against the wall, and he would rather spend his time getting himself prepared for what is to come.  He might have even went off the grid, as it looked like that was his end goal.

To the best of my knowledge, every person that was banned was allowed back in after a cool off period.  Chumba would be a good example, as well as someone that I am glad to have back on the board.  I am pretty sure that they were given warnings as well.

Carlyle Groupie's picture

Any good ZH 'asset' is under full control.
http://educate-yourself.org/mc/

Once management feels you are not zheeple material they send you to slaughter.

defender's picture

I have been lurking here since the blogspot days.  There are very few people that have been banned that I can think of, and of those, at least 2 were allowed back on. 

RockyRacoon's picture

Personal spats and disputes with the Tylers hasn't resulted in removal of anyone as far as I can see.   Being crude, rude, and other socially unacceptable writing sure has.  No need for it.   Anything can be discussed rationally but some just don't seem to be able to maintain the required civility.   As a side note, I also get tired of explaining the same old stuff to the same old obstinate folks.   Convincing people who are steadfast in their misconceptions is futile.   I'd rather not.   Same goes for friends, relatives, and neighbors.   If a gentle coaxing doesn't get them started on the road to survival then there is no use wasting time on them.   I do like the Turd and hope he hangs in there with his work.

merizobeach's picture

"I have struggled for a couple years now to just keep my head up at work at times."

Allllllrighty then!  http://vimeo.com/27582815  :-D

beachdude's picture

Once you look the truth in the face, you are never the same again.  I have struggled for a couple years now to just keep my head up at work at times.

You said it, centerline... this is a topic in and of itself. Just dealing with people at the office and their cognitive dissonance can be incredibly difficult.

I think they know that somethings wrong, but they don't know what it is, or what they would do about it.

They don't know that they don't know, and they don't want to know.