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Turd Ferguson: The Inexorable March Higher For Precious Metals
Submitted by Chris Martenson
Turd Ferguson: The Inexorable March Higher For Precious Metals
Turd Ferguson is a funny guy.
But there's one thing this irreverent, acerbically goofball forecaster is stone-cold serious about: the need to build personal exposure to the precious metals.
For him, it's a straightforward mathematical certainty that the global economy must collapse under the weight of the excessive (and exponentially compounding) credit amassed over the past several decades. The debt is simply too large to be serviced.
As a growing number of analysts (including Chris) are predicting, Turd sees the replacement of the world's current monetary regimes as the endgame to this story. And he believes we are watching that endgame unfold in real-time now.
In this interview with Chris, Turd discusses his reasons why gold and silver offer the best prospect for preserving wealth through the coming devaluation of world currencies, despite his strong conviction that the markets for these metals are heavily price-manipulated.
In fact, it's precisely due to this manipulation that Turd is able to predict short-term price movements in gold and silver as confidently as he does:
Believe me, if you looked at my trading account and looked at my success in trading corn, or soybeans, or crude, or something like that: I make choices just as badly as the average guy. The reason why I am successful in forecasting gold and silver is because they are manipulated.
Because once you understand that the bullion banks, particularly JPMorgan in silver, are in there trying to stack the deck in their favor, then you use some simple technical analysis. And you begin to see where they're going to act, where they're going to place some sell orders to try to start cascading waterfall selling by tripping stocks. It's not real hard. I mean, its pretty basic stuff. But once you admit to yourself that if this does take place, it makes forecasting where price is going pretty easy...
We see this quite often where the prices of gold and silver – they decline rather sharply after hours, after COMEX trading hours, on the Globex because volume is so thin there. A little bit of money thrown at the market – any new paper shorts can have a rather dramatic impact...
And that is where the manipulation has a lasting impact. And you can't get that money back... And it takes a whole bunch of new buy orders, a whole bunch of new speculative longs and commercial longs to come in and bid it back up to where it was before that raid. And so, they're always going to be in there. Again, I guess the ultimate question is at who's behest are they doing this? But, nonetheless, they're in there controlling price, managing the assent, if you will, to create this illusion that there's still confidence in the dollar, that all is well. And that it's okay to go buy a new car.
Turd sees the precious metals as a true barometer of the dollar's devaluation as the Fed pursues its policy of negative real interest rates -- which is challenging for the average consumer to see, when the dollar may strengthen on a relative basis versus other fiat currencies and the government-published CPI is artificially low. In his opinion, the government is well aware of the signaling function of the PMs, and therefore feels it needs to manage their ascent in as drawn-out and orderly a process possible in order to prevent the frogs in the pot (i.e., the citizenry) from noticing that the water is getting a lot hotter.
The important mission here, in Turd's mind, is to realize that the economic reality we have come to accept as "normal" is over, and to take protective action. And once you have done so, to try to help those around you wake up to that fact -- a major challenge, as most people don't want to think about it, and the entrenched status quo powers are aggressively marketing that 'return to normalcy' is just around the corner:
The last thing I would add to that, Chris, and one that's challenging, and I'm sure you've seen this too in working with your subscribers is where we are headed is unlike anywhere where we've been, at least in recent memory. I mean, there may be some octogenarians out there that remember what it was like before the Great Depression and during the Great Depression and before World War II. But it's a world like that where we're headed to.
All I've ever known, all my friends and family, even my parents really have ever known is this hegemonic United States that was the world power, and provided the world's reserve currency. And we could print as much as we wanted to, and then export the inflation to all the other poor staff that had to – took our dollar. And so we bought their cheap stuff. And those days are over, and it's a really hard concept.
If you haven't had personal experience with something else, it's a really hard concept to get your arms around. That the United States isn't going to be this huge economic and military superpower. Just because it always has been doesn't mean that it always will be. And as we talked about, the numbers and the fundamentals suggest that it's not always going to be.
And so you got to kind of prepare yourself that tomorrow's not going to be like today, that we're in a new paradigm. And try to intellectually figure out, okay, how do I survive and prosper in this new world knowing that it's coming? And that's what we try to do. I know that's what you try to do. And it's our job, Chris, to try and help as many as we can.
Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Turd Ferguson (runtime 47m:19s):
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EXCELLENT for bringing Turd Ferguson's article to ZH! Kudos, Tyler.
Thank you Tyler for giving visibility to a great man, worried about all of us!
Amazing how many bloggers started as just posters here on Zero Hedge. Only Turd and Gonzalo seem to have gained major traction after they left, but i'm sure there are many more (do chen, rocky, etc). Feed the Turd!
And Bob has his blog, what's it called,,,, tradelikeyourassisonfire.blogspot.com.
My new blog is coming soon. It's called,
"ifmyasswasreallyonfirewouldibethinkingabouttradingstockswithaburningass.com"
Really Lennon Hendrix? How much pleasure can you derive by thinking and talking about me while I'm not present? It must be enjoyable.
Perhaps a more efficient allocation of your time would be putting on a nice shirt and going to the local bar and chasing some women? If you're not busy talking/thinking about me you might actually go home with a girl (or guy whatever your thing is)
It is Friday night no?
If you're married you might be better off focussing on the needs of your woman.
Sometimes I joke with my friends. Learn to take a joke.
I'm heading out to my buddy's house after I make this post. He is tapping a keg. I just got back from a restaruant where I made two lady freinds (minus the wait staff, they were friendly as well).
Being social has never been a problem of mine, which is one of the many reasons I like it here. I have made some of my best friends on this site. Anyway, take care Bob.
I would call bob a Fag but I dont want to disrepect any of my gay friends here..
so asshole while have to suffice!
Mr. Hendrix you just keep on keepin on, he will get his in the end.. I got $5 on it!
..........................................................zilch
I thought his blog was "tradepretendmoney.blogspot.com"?
Yeah I think you're right trav, or it might be: ikeepfuckinglyingafterimcaughtredhanded.blogspot.com
@phyuckyiu-I like what Turd, Lira, and the rest are doing-spreading the word we are in trouble.
That being said (and don't get me wrong, I've 'fed' the Turd and gone to the website many times), but the aspect of trading precious metals is ludicrous. If you have a 401k or retirement plan that you can't or don't want to go to physical, buy Sprott/PSLV (or AGQ if that is your thing) and sit on it. You are just going to get yourself in trouble entering and leaving the market.
I also think it sends the wrong message of market timing for physical. If you have cash sitting around, it is always a good time to buy physical! You don't wait around for an internet guru named Turd to tell you that. Like I said, it is great there are people spreading the word about the inevitable collapse. Just don't base any investment decisions about what they say is coming. If you have the means, buy it now and sit on it. Anyone that claims to know when the collapse will happen or when the market is going to be parabolic is just guessing.
I would hope that everyone here..
has:
1. Silver for day to day.. or the next great big run up, it works either way.
2. Gold.. becuase it is Money (so is silver dont start).
3. Guns and Ammo (and I dont mean the fucking magazine)
4. Medicine! all you can get of what you need.. and dont be affraid to hire some young punks if the world goes down the shitter to provide you with a LOT more of what you need.
5. Power.. SOLAR BITCHEZ!! (Physical) or Wind and my Favorite Water / Hydro (you need water to drink any way, why not combine the two and be a Double TIGER WINNER!
6. Water / Dry Goods.. yada yada yada.
But.. Silver is WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY more scarse than gold.. and guns and ammo.. eveything else if you had too.. you could free from being captive elsewhere.
Rt's Mom, I talked my mom into buying a decent amount of silver sprott when the premium was only at 9%. She thought I was nuts at the time, but she pays closer attention now. My friends and I prefer coins. Cheers.
Don't forget SGS - who has recently moved off Blogspot onto his <a href="http://www.silvergoldsilver.com">own site</a>.
SGS has ZERO original content except profanity.
Agreed. The Andrew Dice Clay shtick will die quickly. I think Dice could spell, though.
Hear, hear. Agree 100%.
If you live in peru I may come visit someday. You and your factory woyld be easy to find.
Peru is the boring old man of latin america. I need hard partying hot nights with latinas at the clubs though!
I do want to chew the leaf!
@ top!
I live here in the USA. But, we go to Peru twice a year, me to visit customers and plan our purchases. My wife goes to see family and friends. We are going down there soon for a couple of weeks.
Let me tell you something. Peruvians KNOW HOW TO PARTY! A 4:00 AM finish is almost typical. You would really enjoy that there in Peru!
The coca leaf is not impressive. Really to get any noticeable buzz, you also have to put something alkaline there in your mouth (they use some kind of ashes), ick. And in Lima, no one chews the leaf, it's considered real hick behavior. But, the trendy "Coca Sour" (Peru's Pisco Sour made with some coca) is something you should at least try.
I think you know my email. Let me know if/when you are heading down there.
To Everyone: Peru is an extremely interesting country, they are relatively friendly to tourists. I met the girl who became my wife there...
EDIT:
They are the world's 5th largest producer of gold.
and Big Assed Volcanos
Is that where they wear funny hats? It would be cool to wear a funny hat.
The main reason why Gold is being manipulated by the CB through the PD's is undoubtedly to prevent other CB's, China in particular, from putting its reserves into Gold rather than green. That would leave only the US to buy its own debt. Gold and inflation would eventually have to respond accordingly and green would be soon worthless.
PS. Green as in dollars not soylent. Although................................
HI FIVE TO DA TURD,
BITCHEZZZZZZZ!
Let's hear it for the Turd!
The Turd is The Word.
Vive l'Turd!
hey chris. would you please tell turd that they finally got around to killing that wascally osama the other day,?
thanks pal....
Turd...!!!!!!!
Thanks for all you do, man.......
Hi Hammy, Dona K, and MBD!
You rang?
My fear is that the Bernak has unlimited amounts of digital money and he can supress gold forever. Even though, I do have a chunk, I am afraid to buy anymore.
Not sure what's going on. Turd's thesis, is theoretically intact.
+1, I visit the Turd site regularly. Junior Turdite status. About to convert some long dated bonds for my kids college funds into PMs. The writing is on the wall folks. 2011 has already said everything you need to know about the extents to which the maniacs will go to preserve the status quo.
Turd = Big hat, no cattle ... but plenty of PM.
Honest question: If the system is imploding because of too much debt that is denominated in fiat currency, the won't actual paper money (which is in relatively short supply compared to electronic money/debt) become extremely valuable? Isn't the whole thesis deflationary?
ONLY IF CENTRAL BANKS DONT MONETIZE.
I am counting on some monetization of debt, some deflation, and hoping for time, productivity, and growth to do the rest.
I believe in a long slow muddle through to a slightly lower standard of living. No serious deflation. No serious inflation.
How much time bank system will be support without financement??
What you're observing is the middle-game: default & print. TPTB manage effective default through means testing, raising of age limits, etc, in addition to selected actual hard defaults (ie Greece et al "50% haircuts"). Then they offset the deflation via printing in order to maximize the appearance of stability, resulting in this seemingly weird b-flation where both the deflationists (Stoneleigh, Denninger) and inflationists (Lira) are wrong.
But, it's important to note that it is still only the middle-game. That is, it attempts to manage the route towards our inevitable conclusion, which is foreordained by the simple mathematics of exponents. It really is a pity Mako got banned - he was the one guy who rightly pointed out that once that first fateful step is made by using interest bearing credit, the death certificate can be printed, with only the date to be applied at the appropriate time.
Now, the Chosen know this perfectly well. I mean, it's a craft that has been perfected by them for over 5,000 years. So when they launch another credit cycle, they already know the steps which lie ahead in terms of the middle-game we're currently experiencing, and then the eventual end.
The end comes when everyone's purchasing power has declined to such a degree that instincts born of pure animal competition for scarce resources reasserts its dominance. In other words, war. Any review of history reveals this pattern - it's a lock-solid sure thing. So the key aspects to understand are: (a) how the credit-money system works in the first place; (b) where we are in any particular cycle; and (c) how to possibly survive the coming blast.
Mako got banned?
Don't think so. Shit, if Robo ain't banned, then no one can be banned.
Mako made some good points, but he also was extreme in calling Tyler out on where we are in the cycle: Inflation / Deflation thing. But, in all fairness, I don't believe he was banned. Like Cheeky, he's either now writing for ZH or just said the heck with it.
I enjoyed reading Mako's posts and learned alot - but, he lost it and bit at the Tylers. Everyone lost in his banishment. But, he did piss off the host. Bad form - but understandable when viewed from the perspective of frustration. Once you look the truth in the face, you are never the same again. I have struggled for a couple years now to just keep my head up at work at times.
I dont think Tyler banned Mako..
1st off Tyler is a BIG BOY and has a set of Ballz to Match.. Tylers Posts (not the filler news updates) are Fucking Toothy and Worthy of ALL the attention plus..
so, Tyler would not Ban anyone for having a good point or a bad point for that matter..
I am still here and I piss off everyone!
So Mako is out there! come one Mako! show yourself! save Tylers good name! I know you want too!
Tyler's good name doesn't need saving, ZH is solid for letting people speak... However, there are lines that are not to be crossed and I am pretty sure I watched mako cross one of them some time ago.
I think that I remember a "screw you guys, I'm going home" post from him just before he disappeared. Basically he said that he was tired of repeating himself and banging his head against the wall, and he would rather spend his time getting himself prepared for what is to come. He might have even went off the grid, as it looked like that was his end goal.
To the best of my knowledge, every person that was banned was allowed back in after a cool off period. Chumba would be a good example, as well as someone that I am glad to have back on the board. I am pretty sure that they were given warnings as well.
Any good ZH 'asset' is under full control.
http://educate-yourself.org/mc/
Once management feels you are not zheeple material they send you to slaughter.
I have been lurking here since the blogspot days. There are very few people that have been banned that I can think of, and of those, at least 2 were allowed back on.
Personal spats and disputes with the Tylers hasn't resulted in removal of anyone as far as I can see. Being crude, rude, and other socially unacceptable writing sure has. No need for it. Anything can be discussed rationally but some just don't seem to be able to maintain the required civility. As a side note, I also get tired of explaining the same old stuff to the same old obstinate folks. Convincing people who are steadfast in their misconceptions is futile. I'd rather not. Same goes for friends, relatives, and neighbors. If a gentle coaxing doesn't get them started on the road to survival then there is no use wasting time on them. I do like the Turd and hope he hangs in there with his work.
They're all lurkers.
I miss your posts rocky.
"I have struggled for a couple years now to just keep my head up at work at times."
Allllllrighty then! http://vimeo.com/27582815 :-D
Once you look the truth in the face, you are never the same again. I have struggled for a couple years now to just keep my head up at work at times.
You said it, centerline... this is a topic in and of itself. Just dealing with people at the office and their cognitive dissonance can be incredibly difficult.
I think they know that somethings wrong, but they don't know what it is, or what they would do about it.
They don't know that they don't know, and they don't want to know.
So true. The deflation is labor. The inflation is cash.
Not that I know anything at all.. but I think the overall trend is deflation. Inflation will be a monetary trend (a subset of the larger trend though), and coincident with the primary trend (deflation), which will be experienced in a physical sense. Which is more "real." That is easy. It is deflation. And this deflation will take a great deal of time to happen. As B9K9 mentions elsewhere in this thread, the monumental pressures this creates ultimately leads to war.
Just now reading "When Money Dies" by Adam Fergusson, and it always involves war and food. I can't really do anything about the war part (except keep my boys out of it), but I am doubling down on food storage. I am only on chapter four and they are already trading gold watches for bags of potatoes. I am not going to argue about you can't eat gold, but you better have a shit load of food before you start storing wealth in pm's. As sure as gold is money, food is a weapon.
A very timely read for Armistice day. I learned as much from that book about interwar sentiment as I did the hyperinflation.
The haunting part are the parallels of German debt repayments and the PIIGS.
Give a man a match and he can light a fire. Set the man on fire and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. Uh, oh... give a man a fish and...
Fundamentals! Food, Shelter and Water. PMs are NOT fundamentals (though, in this materialistic world, and most definitely for the transition period [which folks here may never see the end of], PMs _DO_ have importance).
Those that can feed themselves are the ones that are truly free.
Amen brother, and it is a lot harder to feed yourself than most people think. This mini-farming lifestyle is hard work with an abundance of opportunity for failure. No short cuts to it either, there are books and blogs that help but mother nature is a bitch.
Check out a very good video on land vs. gold and silver
"Why silver and gold won't protect you from the economic collapse that's coming"http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydgMnQYtF6U&NR=1&feature=fvwp
Dont forget about basic medical supplies as well. A simple infection can be a real showstopper.
edit: I have been trying the home gardening thing here and there (calling it micro-framing would be stretch). Is hard with a full time job to really do it right. But, I could easily say that even if I had the time, I am not sure I would be successful enough to feed a family. And definately not within the first few months. It is not easy.
Medical and dental preparedness goes from a basic medical kit to mini trauma centers and everything in between. Now there is a scenario where a little silver or gold could come in handy. If you had to barter for some medical or dental care from a local doc or dentist, or barter for medicine. Of course food is also a good barter item (remember when doctors were paid in chickens?). So far my family has been lucky, we haven't needed much medical or dental care. I hope that continues to be the case post collapse.
What did the smart Jews, gays, ect. do as Hitler rose to power? They got the hell out!! They didn't stock up on food and weapons as a long term plan. But for those of you who plan to stick it out - be sure that gold and silver will be the only money and money will still be necessary for trade. You can't barter for everything--it's just not feasable. Also learn to make "colloidal silver" it's very easy and is the best anti-bacterial, anti-viral, anti-fungal with no side effects. It can be ingested, inhaled via nebulizer or applied topically( "google" all the uses). It is medicne so only take it when you need it, also it can not be stored so only make it when you need it. Youtube has many demos of how to make it at home. Also Vodka, 420, honey, molases, coffee will be in great demand. Tampons, diapers, razors will be of value as well.
Some days I wish I could get the hell out, but most days are spent preparing for an economic collapse. If they come to round me and the family up, I will deal with it then. I think they will have their hands full in the urban areas (I am 100 miles from the nearest one). Agree with the list of barter items (what is 420?). Alcohol has almost indefinite shelf life, so does honey.
What do you see on the other side of the collapse? My concern is a WW3 scenario with nukes, but that is hard to prepare for.
420 = medicinal herb
There will be no nukes. TPTB, i.e. the ones that have the power to launch them, know that they will become victims too if this happens. Nukes are only useful against someone that doesn't have any nukes. Read Prouty's recent book "JFK". It's an eye opener told from someone that was there as it unfolded. I learned a lot that wasn't on the evening news.
great corner happening here, can agree with the colloidal silver recommendation, thought I'd add another - this one's cheaper & works quickly - I have personal experience with it clearing up a heavy chest congestion overnight. . .
http://www.earthclinic.com/Remedies/hydrogen_peroxide_inhalation.html
and the original guy - love him! his recommendations for using same in food gardens is also very well proven
http://www.landrights.com/Hydrogen_Peroxide.htm
thanks Bill !
best wishes guys.
What did the smart Jews, gays, ect. do as Hitler rose to power? They got the hell out!! They didn't stock up on food and weapons as a long term plan. But for those of you who plan to stick it out - be sure that gold and silver will be the only money and money will still be necessary for trade. You can't barter for everything--it's just not feasable. Also learn to make "colloidal silver" it's very easy and is the best anti-bacterial, anti-viral, anti-fungal with no side effects. It can be ingested, inhaled via nebulizer or applied topically( "google" all the uses). It is medicne so only take it when you need it, also it can not be stored so only make it when you need it. Youtube has many demos of how to make it at home. Also Vodka, 420, honey, molases, coffee will be in great demand. Tampons, diapers, razors will be of value as well.
America has to deflate to re-inflate its self..
and..
Lets not forget America has to lower itself to the rest of the worlds standards, so that everyone can be on equal footing.
The World is lowering living standards for the sheepish workers! and they are getting away with it!
Whether there are a group of conspirators or not, the fact is that, despite Dick Cheney's protestations to the contrary, the American Dream isn't sustainable.
This is yet another illusion that keeps us chained to Their wheel, that we should "fight" to keep our "living standards" high. Physical reality says that we'll lose this fight, and that it's NOT a fight with our "masters," it's a fight with Mother Nature, and Mother Nature bats last.
good points, as always, Seer (and the others above emphasising WATER/FOOD/SHELTER before anything else) - I'd only like to add best learn to co-operate with Mother Nature, this "every man for himself" line is about to be tested, big time.
and as long as Father Military is messing with Mother Nature's truths, there will be hardships.
well see how the game was played in england during the napoleonic wars.............
Does Mako still have a web sight? If so what's the address?
Thanks.
He's actually got two:
http://worlddarkestdays.blogspot.com/
http://allcutecats.blogspot.com/
Thanks Vic.
websites look old...
Any advice on ascertaining (b) is appreciated targeted authors, books etc. Thank you
Any advice on ascertaining (b) is appreciated targeted authors, books etc. Thank you
Mako wasn't the only one.
He and I differed only in that I don't see the effing apocalypse and madmax as a result. the lizards have been doing this since their holy texts were written, always to outsiders.
There's a lot of history people don't know and the history of chosen participation in the basest vice trades, to a point of dominance of them, is but one aspect that has been whitewashed. Carpetbagger interest lending to freed slaves was another source of income, as was the financing and trade in the slaves themselves. If you repeat this history, you are marginalized and smeared.
However, these cycles run longer than human lifespans; there is no particular planning in them, just how to work with clan power to dominate any particular phase.
There is a better than not chance the idiot sheep will sleep thru being robbed.. I agree.. but Trav.. even you have to admit the law of averages is catching up with them.. it is a numerical certainty.
I would hope and pray for that matter that the World does NOT! tear itself apart over the greed of a few.. I would also admit that they have a winning track record..
But I stand by the Fact that it may happen..
as well, food for thought.. if you so choose.. because of the affordable energy crunch / Peak Affordable Oil / Peak Lite Sweet Crude.. coupled with an information age that has gotten out of control.. could lead somewhere off the well traveled trails.
I would also like to add.. nothing we see in heavy rotation on corporate owned news channels is an accident. It seems to me that the possibility of 8 Billion people and climbing fast.. is bothersome, it is easier to let us kill each other off and have less natural resource(s) drain and PLUS!! be able to sell the idea we are not to be trusted with firearms.. going forward.
So? are we killing each other off?
or are we just being entertained while our quality of life is lowered to Global Standards?
and Trav.. try not to be a word nazi and just share.. Thanks!
I find it a little discomfirting that given a choice between killing lots of people off and a lowered quality of life.. there are many who suggest the former. And nobody opposes the idea.
Hell, if all Americans were to get rid of their cats and dogs enough resources would be saved to feed a billion people.
no need to get rid of companion animals, but ignorant, lazy amrkns that won't spay / neuter need a reality check upside the head.
"In America, where spelling doesn't count, people's pets do..."
Erm... Your so-called "Law of Averages" isn't a mathematical "law" at all. It's a poor understanding of the principles of statistics. Kind of funny that you invoke it as fact after generalizing a large swathe of people as idiots.
After the 401k's have been saved from the way too too risky stock market and safely secured (read spent)
The end game will have arrived.
"The end comes when everyone's purchasing power has declined to such a degree that instincts born of pure animal competition for scarce resources reasserts its dominance. In other words, war."
TPTB will indeed try to draw us into WW III if we let them. Remember that when the "end" comes, there will be no scarcity of resources, only scarcity of the means of exchange to purchase the resources. Only outright stupidity on our part will allow them to do that to us once again, as they have done time and again for millennia. The bread lines and soup kitchens will be the result of Artificial Scarcity, the war(s) completely unnecessary.
"instincts born of pure animal competition"- how dramatic!
You have a major error in timing revealed by "soup kitchens will be". Newsflash! Soup kitchens "are", not "will be". How long would bread lines in America be if the Food Stamp LINK cards were processing payments electronically?
Given that requirements for getting food stamps may be lax for political purposes, there are some 40 million-plus people being fed by subsidy in America.
The devastation that unemployment brings to family structure is part of the big-picture breakdown. Animal competititon is all over the local news with cold-blooded street killings and strong-arm robberies. Just like gangsters in the 1930s, killers today are walking into Aldi grocery stores in Chicago firing away as they enter to rob the cashiers. Two stores in a month sounds like working a plan in progress.
It is easy to see how hyperinflation would appear attractive; after all, isn't the problem that we don't have enough money? Printing more and more currency has a logic to it, that's why it happens: TPTB benefit a while longer from it.
So whether we devalue the currency through inflation or destroy wealth through deflating asset values, we still end up with a need for a new money value, always denominated in relation to ounces of gold. End game
-30-
Well fucking shicksa, fuck you too.
As usual, very trenchant!
Happy to see that so many others feel the same.
In the simplest form: CREDIT = GROWTH. Growth = (eventual) Collapse
The equations are simple. The issue, however, is in being able to see them through the fog of Grand Illusion.
It's not so much an issue of a debased currency destroying purchasing power as it is a general overall decline in per capita wealth measured independent of any elastic fiat yardstick. The biggest tragedies of the current era are the devotion of so many brilliant minds to an essentially at best useless activity--i.e. the short term trading of securities, and the massive unemployment that has resulted from the capital market disruptions and misallocations caused by the end of our capital markets serving as institutions where capital is accumulated then lent out to fund the most beneficial economic activity.
We will never regain the hours and productivity being lost presently when people who want to work cannot find jobs.
We will never regain the capital spent on McMansions and HFT supercomputers and 9 figure bonuses for hedge fund managers.
As a result, we have become poorer per capita, and we will continue to become poorer per capita. The situation certainly will not be improved by any total loss of confidence in the medium of exchange that makes normal commerce possible, but I can see systems of private currency, or script, or PM emerging to replace the fiatscos.
Economic activity will continue. The fiatscos were just a way to keep score. Wiping the scoreboard clean and starting over will not be the end of the world, although it will sure suck if you thought you were superrich because you owned a boatload of financial paper.
I get tired of reading all of the apocalyptic doomer posts that predominate the comments section every day. I read them, then go to work in the most economically depressed region in the USA, and get stuck in wall-to-wall traffic, hundreds of thousands of people going to work. 20% unemployed means 80% working. It could and should be better than that, and lots of people are suffering needlessly. I have a hard time accepting the proposition that next year we'll be roasting each other down by the firepit.
It's too easy to get caught up in the shadow world of financial chicanery and forget that right now the human race as a whole has better food, better housing, and better health care than than at any time in history. The financial world can go ahead and collapse, and that would still be true. The banksters would like you to believe that the financial world and the real world are one and the same. Anybody who claims that the collapse of one is the collapse of the other should wake up and realize that you are acting as the mewling, piddling sycophants of your financial masters.
But didn't the wars part of your theory start with Iraq and Afghanistan when the US realised they (and the rest of the west) were holding a busted flush and needed more resources ? Not criticizing (as us lazy westerners have lived high on the horse for longer than we deserved), just observing.
This is pretty much what I was saying . . . purchasing power will be dessimated for anyone crazy enough to trust electronic fiat (debt fiat) rather than just possessing actual dollars. I'm interested to hear and learn more about what you perceive the "steps which lie ahead," because I am struggling to understand it all.
The Fed is monetizing right now by definition of ZIRP.
Not enough to hyperinflate.
Just enough to stagflate.
@ yardtsick
+ 1
Hey it's an honest question. My hunch is that paper money would be rather valuable for a short time if the electronic and credit markets lock up. A short time because I think there would be a risk of hyperrinflation once they got down to printing the new $1000 Obama FRNs. Then the $5000 FDRs.
Followed by the $100 trillion Bernanke note. Zimbabwe equivalent now sells for $2 on ebay.
This guy on Ebay has a plethora of fake bills, tempted to get some to use to replace FRN's someday... http://www.ebay.com/itm/400198958159?ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1438.l2649#ht_772wt_942
I didn't see a Timmay Trillion note though...or the Bernanke Billion, hmmm...
100 trillion is just a number. Think of them as 0.001 oz. of gold for the time being.
paper!=money
paper==currency
heh. a C programmer.
for ( ; ; )
c_Rulez( oh_yeah );
The question of timing of deflation and inflation and hyper-inflation.
IMHO, there may be a time when paper notes increase in value, but it will be short, and the true producers (coin shops, farmers, etc.) will already understand not to take paper notes. They might work at the grocery store, but only before the shelves empty.
Ultimately, you have to plan for the end-game, and not just an inning or even just a play. Even in deflation, paper currency will fail, as people realize that the debts cannot be paid. Deflation can quickly morph to hyper-inflation as the money dies.
The currency is backed by nothing but confidence, when that goes, it all goes.
The confidence unike what I have written before will not go away ever as the sheep do not UDDERstand anything they are sooo stupid. Hunger and only hunger as producers truly go galt will change anything or cause existential threats to the ponzi..
Get your food before your worry about gold. If you have enough FRNs for both, go for it. I would start rotating a two year supply ASAP. History shows (lack of) food is a weapon of mass destruction.
The writing is already on the wall......you just gotta know how to read it.
IMO, the banksters already have most of the gold/silver and will continue to rig the market until just ZHers have a few coins left. Once they decide they have all the gold/silver they can get, they crash the system( $10 gas and HIGH heating oil prices ought to do it). FRNs will work until they don't and grocery stores will have food until they also don't. People in the cities will get hungry and DEMAND that TPTB do something. Again, once the RIGHT number of people have died, they will introduce the new world order currency that is BACKED BY GOLD AND SILVER (so even the smart sheeple will think it is good) and that will be that....TOTAL CONTROL.
Have I missed anything?
Remember, it's the ones who get to use newly created currency first who benefit most, and this is regardless of whether it's paper or digital. By the time any kleptocracy outsider realizes there's a hyperinflationary event in progress, it's already too late. Holding paper may be negligibly better, but I wouldn't count on it.
Nobody uses cash anymore. I feel like the only person out shopping that doesn't whip out plastic to make a purchase. The CBs don't even need to print anymore.
Temporalist,
Nobody uses cash anymore
Not true, at all.
I only use plastic to buy online, and if I get caught (very rarely) without a wad of cash in my wallet.
Most here have the means to carry $500.00 cash on them most of the time,pay cash for everything you can.
Did Turd not cut his teeth under Tyler though?
I expect the new RNR/LFP to make an appearance in this thread.
I expect you will be right.
Turd was on the dating game once.
The list of countries, states or municipalities in a financial mess is endless. There is no practical way out of this situation except a complete restart of the system. The only choice we still have is if the new one will be more free and honest or just as corrupt and disgusting as the system we have today. For the former to happen, a lot of people in high positions must end up in jail which means people have to get informed, rise up and show that enough is enough.
www.economicfreefall.com
I do have a problem with the turd. I like his thinking, but he advocates to not take physical delivery.
I also like his short term predictions, but the silver massacre on may 1st or september 26th he also did not foresee. I stick to my plan to just stack physical whenever i have money availabe. this also helps to not loose 1000s of dollars when my broker goes bancrupt (mfglobal)
I "foresaw" the may implosion. Put fifty percent of all my spec money on a double short silver etf (i dont play with options directly any more).
Posted my trade and price here a week before the collapse.
I am the forty year old high school quarterback. I will be reminding all of you about my greatest play ever, even twenty years from now.
Unlike some, I post my trades ahead of time :)
You are a P.I.M.P. Sir for that call.. and I bought all the way down.. and still do! I buy on down days! should be my motto!
Yep, A broken record is right every dip, or something like that...
Well, so far at least two others see right through you: good for them.
One word - Yogurt.
Wrong.
That is wrong. Turd encourages and promotes stacking.
How ironic --- my snacking encourages and promotes the turd!
However, given that we are talking about the Turd here, "piling up" might be the more appropriate metaphor.
Bay, akak
Good comments... And LOL!
Funny how often the three of us (along with tmosley and Rocky) have commented sequentially in the comments section here. Or maybe, it is not surprising at all.
Thanks DoChen -- always good to see you here.
Word.
Same!
"A turd in the hand is worth two in the tush"
My first actual LOL of the day!
Most excellent!
Now what the FUCK did four utter assholes find offensive enough (or offensive at all) in that innocent comment to junk it?
There seems to be a small but determined number of junk-happy, otherwise anonymous trolls in these boards lately.
stacking is good. stack it high and stack it deep, pm and ammo............
And munchies...
And seeds and canned hams and etc....
DaddyO
Serious question: let's say you have $1m in net assets. Are you going to put it all in PMs and bury them in your backyard? Someone, somewhere will eventually let something slip, and the next thing you know, your young daughter is getting her fingers clipped off one-by-one until you tell your "guests" where your gold is located.
Or, let's say you put it all into Treasuries - next thing you know, Uncle Ben is speed burning the printers to the point that the purchasing power of your $1m is soon $500k. And that's assuming interest rates stay flat - if yields increase, you also have capital losses.
Alternatively, you could go to cash, spreading out $250k per TBTF. Again, with Ben at the wheel, you could easily see your purchasing power drop by 50%, with the added benefit that a bankrupt FDIC may not actually cover your deposits.
Last, but not least, you can stay in the market. If you own equities in stable businesses, such as oil & gas, utilities, etc, you will end up losing as the stock prices decline to reflect lower economic activity, but unless they go BK, you still, at a nominal level, actually own a piece of producing property.
There aren't any real answers to this conundrum. One must be resigned to the fact that they were born at a certain time that put them in this parcticular time & place. It could have been better ie coming of age in the 50s, or it could have been worse, ie being in your 20s during the period of 1914-1918.
The thing to do is accept that no one is taking anything through the bottle neck. Just try and be still standing when the dust clears, and perhaps help rebuild a new future.
Your first PM fear driven excuse is foolhardy.
Shut your face, and bury it.
Loose lips sinks ships. Or blowmouth daughter loses fingers.
Or give up and in as your rationalization is so endowed.
Invest in some lead to save the girl's fingers.
Who would tell their daughter where their wealth is buried? That's just plain dumb.
Yo BK.... you drunk? First you claim Mako was banned.
Now u claim that daughters will sink the family ship.
What gives?
Anyone coming into one's home armed and looking for the family treasure is going to assume everyone knows where it is. I think it'd be better for the kid to know where the stash is since "I don't know" could be met with lost fingers or a lost life.
Best bet is to keep a small stash where the entire family knows and the majority of the treasure somewhere else.
If anyone is forced to tell, they'll give up a small portion of the overall pie and hopeufully get out intact.
Unfortunately once the any stash is found by the wolf, the wolf will do what wolves do....kill.
NO one should know you have a stash until absolutely necessary -- not spouse, not kids, no one. What good would it do for anyone to know? Leave instructions upon death. Why potentially expose family to potential trouble. Americans feel compelled to talk, tell what they know, boast.
Be quiet. Take care of your affairs as privately and as anonomously as possible.
Plus if you decide sometime to leave the wife and kids for a new life, you don't have to share with them, eh? Some wives may not be that trusting.
That may be your style.....not mine.
Check Mako's blog he says he is banned, me next maybe...
They wouldn't be asking the daughter where the gold is, dude. They would be asking Dad as they are clipping off daughter's fingers while he is forced to watch. Why does this have to be explained? (Although this scenario is highly speculative and probably Hollywood driven and should not be a deterrant to stacking physical.) Just be smart about your stash.
You guys are really funny!
If there is a complete breakdown in law and order, no single family will be safe. Large gangs of well armed thugs will be looking for your food and your gold. At best you might be able to argue that if you shoot back, they'll walk down the road and pillage your neighbor's home, but eventually the pickings will get thin, and your place will get a return visit, and that will be the end for you. You will be tortured just for the fun of it. Whether you disclose the location of your secret hoards will be sort of beside the point. Great if you do, but if you don't, at least the thugs' boredom will have been alleviated for another day, and there will always be tomorrow and another family to torture and rape.
If you want to save yourself and your family, you will have to form your own large gang and live communally in a location that has a defensible perimeter. Your hoard will either remain secretly in the ground where you buried it, or have to be used as the initiation fee to induce the good people to let you into their compound.
I am not saying that your hoard will be useless, since if it buys your way into some small amount of security, it will be well spent, indeed.
But this prevailing image of a bold and brave man, standing alone in defense of his family and his PMs, pointing an assault rifle out of the bay window of his brick ranch home at 200 guys with mortars and rocket grenades is hilarious.
What I find truly hilarious is this prevailing image of so many of you who have bought into the bankster's self-serving propaganda, that the collapse of the current financial and monetary paradigm is somehow going to lead toArmageddon and the end of civilization itself. THAT is a woefully ignorant and wrongheaded view.
Diversification, bitchez. You just gave a great argument for it.
Everyone loses in a crack up boom or deflationary collapse. The key is to lose as little as possible.
Even if u r all gold through a crack up boom you lose, as your standard of living and income opportunities will likely be less on the other side.
"Everyone loses in a crack up boom or deflationary collapse"
What are you saying you lose a little gain a little? There are definitely net winners in both scenarios.
Think about the lack of demand and the lowered economic complexity and specialization AFTER a collapse. Crack up boom or otherwise.
Your employment prospects will be less. Return on equity probably lower, and products such as happy meals will have greater cost inputs. Production in aggregate will be less efficient.
Yes definitely even gold holders lose. Most of us will still need jobs and sources of income afterward. Even if you owned a lot of gold.
topcall,
Yes definitely even gold holders lose. Most of us will still need jobs and sources of income afterward. Even if you owned a lot of gold.
Depends on how high it goes, how old you are, and if you can offload it before the Sheeple start the panic.
You have 200-300ozs+, at 6k-11k per oz, your going to be pretty much set for life.(IF your not a pig).
Understanding how things may be different and what you can do with your PMs is the whole ball game. that is. . . .if. . . .you are in the ball game at all. If you have to spend all your PMs just to eat and survive, well. . . . you didn't plan very well.
Mike Maloney is the best for these kinds of discussions.
In both scenarios, inflationary or deflationary - losing less than everyone else (who will lose everything) is winning. Since the concept of "wealth" will be reinterpreted not to include fiat confetti - you need to be prepared for a local economy based upon real production and trade based upon real assets - whatever they may be.
@ B9K9
-- I would diversify PM holdings as well as the places you hide them. My family's PMs are in SIX different places.
-- Diversification is one of my favorite words. I am not at the All Inn anywhere.
-- You hint strongly at being prepared and alert. Yes! But, it is HARD to be well prepared for who knows what.
-- Stable, solid and cash-generating businesses are good too, as you suggest.
If our standard of living goes down gently, it will not hurt me much (depending on which way this all goes).
@DoChen - 100% agree. Diversify. Multiple locations for PMs is good advice. However, I would also look beyond PMs. The basic issues with PMs are:
(1) They are hard to transport, particularly if air travel is involved. You will probably have to cash them in first rather than attempting to board a plane with a sock full of Kruggerands a sack of Silver Eagles.
(2) If you lose them -- or if they are taken -- they are hard to recover.
To be clear, I think having PMs on hand as alternate liquidity makes sense, however for anyone trying to hedge 6+ figures of wealth without being entirely in fiat, things get more complicated. I personally am a big proponent of mutlple forms of alternative assets. A personal favorite is development-grade internet domain names. Why?
(1) They are valuable and finite like PMs but can be transported instantly, and still held anonymously
(2) If you lose them, you can easily find them and regain control.
(3) With a modicum of effort, they provide yield and capital gain potential.
Keep Hedging ... Diversfy ... and Feed the Turd!
The conundrum of storing wealth has been around since the dawn of the agrarian age. It either rots, or is looted, or taxed...well that falls under looted. But the govt and banks have made it oh so convenient for us. Swanson and McDonald's have made dinner so convenient. Well it's time to be inconvenienced again, to lead a healthy and sovereign life.
Ok, you keep your money with MF Global, we will keep ours until our kids fingers get cut off, and then we'll see who holds out the lo...
Oh wait.