This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Turd Ferguson: The Inexorable March Higher For Precious Metals
Submitted by Chris Martenson
Turd Ferguson: The Inexorable March Higher For Precious Metals
Turd Ferguson is a funny guy.
But there's one thing this irreverent, acerbically goofball forecaster is stone-cold serious about: the need to build personal exposure to the precious metals.
For him, it's a straightforward mathematical certainty that the global economy must collapse under the weight of the excessive (and exponentially compounding) credit amassed over the past several decades. The debt is simply too large to be serviced.
As a growing number of analysts (including Chris) are predicting, Turd sees the replacement of the world's current monetary regimes as the endgame to this story. And he believes we are watching that endgame unfold in real-time now.
In this interview with Chris, Turd discusses his reasons why gold and silver offer the best prospect for preserving wealth through the coming devaluation of world currencies, despite his strong conviction that the markets for these metals are heavily price-manipulated.
In fact, it's precisely due to this manipulation that Turd is able to predict short-term price movements in gold and silver as confidently as he does:
Believe me, if you looked at my trading account and looked at my success in trading corn, or soybeans, or crude, or something like that: I make choices just as badly as the average guy. The reason why I am successful in forecasting gold and silver is because they are manipulated.
Because once you understand that the bullion banks, particularly JPMorgan in silver, are in there trying to stack the deck in their favor, then you use some simple technical analysis. And you begin to see where they're going to act, where they're going to place some sell orders to try to start cascading waterfall selling by tripping stocks. It's not real hard. I mean, its pretty basic stuff. But once you admit to yourself that if this does take place, it makes forecasting where price is going pretty easy...
We see this quite often where the prices of gold and silver – they decline rather sharply after hours, after COMEX trading hours, on the Globex because volume is so thin there. A little bit of money thrown at the market – any new paper shorts can have a rather dramatic impact...
And that is where the manipulation has a lasting impact. And you can't get that money back... And it takes a whole bunch of new buy orders, a whole bunch of new speculative longs and commercial longs to come in and bid it back up to where it was before that raid. And so, they're always going to be in there. Again, I guess the ultimate question is at who's behest are they doing this? But, nonetheless, they're in there controlling price, managing the assent, if you will, to create this illusion that there's still confidence in the dollar, that all is well. And that it's okay to go buy a new car.
Turd sees the precious metals as a true barometer of the dollar's devaluation as the Fed pursues its policy of negative real interest rates -- which is challenging for the average consumer to see, when the dollar may strengthen on a relative basis versus other fiat currencies and the government-published CPI is artificially low. In his opinion, the government is well aware of the signaling function of the PMs, and therefore feels it needs to manage their ascent in as drawn-out and orderly a process possible in order to prevent the frogs in the pot (i.e., the citizenry) from noticing that the water is getting a lot hotter.
The important mission here, in Turd's mind, is to realize that the economic reality we have come to accept as "normal" is over, and to take protective action. And once you have done so, to try to help those around you wake up to that fact -- a major challenge, as most people don't want to think about it, and the entrenched status quo powers are aggressively marketing that 'return to normalcy' is just around the corner:
The last thing I would add to that, Chris, and one that's challenging, and I'm sure you've seen this too in working with your subscribers is where we are headed is unlike anywhere where we've been, at least in recent memory. I mean, there may be some octogenarians out there that remember what it was like before the Great Depression and during the Great Depression and before World War II. But it's a world like that where we're headed to.
All I've ever known, all my friends and family, even my parents really have ever known is this hegemonic United States that was the world power, and provided the world's reserve currency. And we could print as much as we wanted to, and then export the inflation to all the other poor staff that had to – took our dollar. And so we bought their cheap stuff. And those days are over, and it's a really hard concept.
If you haven't had personal experience with something else, it's a really hard concept to get your arms around. That the United States isn't going to be this huge economic and military superpower. Just because it always has been doesn't mean that it always will be. And as we talked about, the numbers and the fundamentals suggest that it's not always going to be.
And so you got to kind of prepare yourself that tomorrow's not going to be like today, that we're in a new paradigm. And try to intellectually figure out, okay, how do I survive and prosper in this new world knowing that it's coming? And that's what we try to do. I know that's what you try to do. And it's our job, Chris, to try and help as many as we can.
Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Turd Ferguson (runtime 47m:19s):
iTunes: Play/Download/Subscribe to the Podcast
Download/Play the Podcast
Report a Problem Playing the Podcast
»
- 34176 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
"One must be resigned to the fact that they were born at a certain time that put them in this parcticular time & place"
been struggling with that concept for a few years now and it's so gaddamn true. There are good things about it of course, the gardening, the community building, but the fear factor and the anger is a bitch
Franklin Roosevelt
"To some generations much is given. From some generations much is expected. Our generatio has a rendezvous wirh destiny."
Except i cant spell rondayvoo!
I can handle the exchange but only if I get some justice
I am willing to go with and particiapte in any and all justice doled out!
http://whereisourgold.co.uk/
According to official Bank of England data, at the end of August 2011, the Bank held 9.9m ounces of gold on behalf of the UK government, including gold swapped or on loan.
See: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/reserves/Tempoutput.xls
We ask that the Bank of England reveal how much of our 9.9m ounces of gold is on loan or swapped. The Bank refuses to reveal this information, it is our gold and we deserve to know if it is out on loan.
http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/20934
"Our" gold? LOL
You've been had, friend.
Just wait for the market to collapse again and buy strong dividend paying stocks. Maybe do $200k in gold in the back yard. Or if you are a decent stock picker you can buy some growth stocks, once again when the market collapses. Just wait for opportunities to present themselves, there will be plenty. I still have municipal bonds purchased from before the crisis that still pay well but keep maturing. You can buy dividend paying oil companies when oil goes back below $80 at a good price. Just some of the things I do, but dealing with a larger portfolio. I think the copper stocks are a decent buy right now such as SCCO and FCX, but were cheaper a little while ago. There are tons of opportunities out there. CVX was recently trading below 90, picked some up there, now at 105 or so. Just be patient and take advantage of good stocks that are out of favor. I would never buy a treasury or invest in any fixed income that only pays 2%. There are stocks such as philip morris international and verizon that pay great dividends, plenty of MLP's and utilities that are safe bets that pay you to wait.
If by "in the market" you mean "own common stock", then your follow up idea, that you "actually own a piece of producing property", is completely false. You don't own shit.
just call tulving or sanders or bullion direct and let them know what you want to do, they will fix you up no problem........
I have 3 daughters - a .357, and 2 9MM.s. When they talk, they talk loud.
roger, don't have children
I like to think that is not about the destination, it is about the journey. I know, corny crap and I should just shut the fuck up.
But, I really do subscribe to the diversification angle like many have said here. PM's, bonds (changing some to PMs at this time, but not all), cash on hand (both paper and coins), multiple accounts at different institutions, some equities/funds (lesser degree now), long-term supplies, survival needs (short and long term), building a network of like-minded people in my area, necessary protection including a loveable german shepherd (very protective creature), etc.
As events unfold, I will be quick to act and rebalance - but never will be "all-in" on one angle. Too risky.
Of course, I will probably make a tactical error somewhere along the way and wind up in trouble. Pretty much on par for me. At least I will go down swinging! (queue some Iron Maiden "die with your boots on").
try to stay close to friends and family and / or like minded people so that someone can help carry the load when you falter or like wise when they falter..
strength in numbers!
PLEASE! dont go down swinging.. just swing and stay! we need all the good people HERE! so that WE! can make some changes that benefit ALL! of Man Kind!
centerline,
necessary protection including a loveable german shepherd (very protective creature), etc.
People that buy dogs for warning is fine, buyng for protection is another story.K9 trained dogs are the only ones who will ignore pepper spray,mace,etc,etc, and stay on your ass.
Family pets will haul.
'struth. Stop by ours uninvited late at night and we have the scariest, meanest looking, snarliest bitch in the world, until somebody hits a car horn . She's none too bright either when it comes to the open gate/get chased/circle back/gate closed gambit. Pretty damn funny look on her face too when she's on the other side of the fence trying to work out exactly what just happened, hehe.
And like most I just don't have the heart to train her for resisting the sprays.
Barks a good alarm though, and I wouldn't recommend taking a swing at me or mine in front of her.
Its our quiet one that you want to watch out for; not sure if even a spray would stop him or not, it could just really piss him off.
I know. But, realistically, most folks are going to pick another target instead of taking a chance. It is all about improving one's odds. We got this dog as a puppy before the big meltdown. She is an adored member of the family. A big sissy it seems, but puts on a good show. If someone did in fact threaten a family member or neighbor, I can't predict what would happen... she has some pretty deep protective instincts.
Do not store up for yourself treasure on earth where moths and rust destroy, and thieves break in and steal. Instead, store up for yourself treasure in heaven..."
- Jesus
Jesus is the best investment you'll ever make... because you know eventually those silver coins are going to tarnish. :)
You make the critical mistake of thinking that the $1M in assets is yours.
Have you not listened to the wisdom of George Carlin?
While you may think its your money and those are your assets, its not.
The real owners of those assets want them back, and they will f*ck you over to ensure you do not keep their assets.
Spread it out over cash, pm's, bank accounts, storage of essential goods, and if you have some left over, put it in the best real asset companies and income producing real estate, and you won't get burned (at least not too bad).
"your young daughter is getting her fingers clipped off one-by-one until you tell your "guests" where your gold is located."
Did someone invite Tarzan to dinner?
If I had 1M in net assets available one of the actions I would take that I don't see mentioned yet would be to buy some good farm land. Buy the equipment needed to have a running farm (manual) Build a secure house(s) and maybe even have a few trusted people to farm it for now. Where I live its fairly common for people to rent a few acres of farmland from an existing farmer so they can grow food to sell at farmers markets. This is a tough call here as you have to be very careful to balance trusted and like minded people with keeping your location under the radar. But having like minded friends around when the guys who want your gold come around may save your daughters finger, as long as they are not the reason the guys who want your gold know you have it.
I would also move to a good year round growing area and out of the frigid north
Let us hear the chart remarks upon silver's "death cross."
JPM and associates will be covering the 2nd half their short contracts.
Prepare for possible early holiday gift.
Cheap(er) silver with continued amazingly cheap premiums.
Buy Buy Buy. Buy.
MERRY SILVER BITCHEZ!
silver and gold (physical) prices will go up as eastern europe takes a shit! and then again a europe propper goes down the tubes.
jus sayin!
The American people are just going to have to go through the same grieveing process as the British population did when their Empire, the greatest and most recent previous global superpower, was rolled back.
This is nothing new. Empires come, empires go. What is noticable is that the duration of empires seems to be following an exponentially declining timescale. Greece and Rome had empires that lasted many centuries. The Portuguese and Spanish empires had a much smaller duration. The British empire lasted only a couple of centuries from start to finish. The US empire a mere few decades.
Nevertheless, welcome US friends, to the inevitable collapse of empire. You are not the first, and you will probably not be the last.
you ommitted the ottoman turks - they lasted many centuries as well .... and they are back! empires never die ... they just reinvigorate change forms and coulours .... once a winner always a winner ... America will be back! ... arnold where are you ???
I accept the omission. Just about everyone has had a go at empire building, even the Belgians, and they can't even organise a government in their own country at the moment. The fundamental point is that plenty of countries have been where the US is now, having reached the apogee of their greatness and with only reversion to the mean in the future. Denial is normal, but it won't help.
agreed. lets hope from denial to the next stage there is a period of few decades ... it is just hope, most probably not the reality ... but who knows, i guess will find out soon... as the saying goes sooner than you think ...
He's also not very good at counting if "couple" means two. I thought Sir Francis and his bout with the Spanish Armada in the 16th Century was the beginning of the British Empire and the end was sometime in the 20th if you don't count the Americans as just being colonial lackeys of the Brits.
I never wanted an empire.
Our founding fathers never wanted an empire.
Benjamin Franklin said we should have alliances with no one. Trade and intercourse with all.
Ben was all about that intercourse thing.
Benjamin Franklin was right.
Franklin had plenty of alliances with Masons in Europe, so I find it hard to take his words at face value.
Survival of the nation trumps all cliches. I bet even Ben "horndog" Franklin would agree.
@ top,
That was almost "A Perfect Comment". Bravo!
Sounds like Mr. Franklin had his priorities in order. Is beer and food included with the trade and intercourse? Just checking.
All you need to remember is FFF -- food, film, fuck.
It's really important to remember that the Founding Fathers didn't agree with each other, either. Franklin was strongly anti-empire, but he was just one guy. The obvious assumption made by folks like Jay (and to a lesser extent Jefferson) was that their USA was just the start of the nation that was going to eventually control the entire New World.
That whole idea of a consortium of "States" IS empire, depending on how you think about it.
blunderdog ,
It is not STATES, it's states.
Soverign, and separate, self determined,self governed..........untiil the War of Norhtern Aggression.
I live in one "state", I do not consider the states to be an empire.Each one is totally differnet an separate,with their own rules/laws/rules/regs.........until the Feds screwed it up.( via the Progressives, and 1913).
The Constitution was ratified by the colonial governments well before the War of Norhtern Aggression.
The idea that the ratifiers were all separate countries is just batshit crazy talk.
Sorry.
blunderdog
Didn't say Countries, the words have different meanings when you capitilaize the words state/s,v.s.States.
They were a Union of states.( damn sure not an Empire).
That's fucking stupid! Where did you learn American history? How could they be "colonial governments" if, due to the results of the Revolutionary War (or the War of Secession from the British Empire if you prefer) caused them to no longer be "colonies" of Great Britain?
New York, Massachussets, Virginia, and the other 10 were independent states after the the Revolution and before the Constitution was ratified by each of them that transferred a portion of their sovereignity to a federal (as in "federation") government. And it was clear that they retained those rights and that sovereignity that was not specifically transferred to the new federal government.
How could they be "colonial governments" if, due to the results of the Revolutionary War (or the War of Secession from the British Empire if you prefer) caused them to no longer be "colonies" of Great Britain?
Because the structures and people involved were largely the same as during the colonial period. The state governments weren't all created from scratch in 1776.
(PS: You guys are weird. DosZap's all up in arms about the difference between States and states, and you want to quibble about use of the word "colonial." The point of the post is that the Founders weren't a monolithic group with identical goals and interests--anyone who starts a sentence with "the Founders wanted..." probably never studied the period.)
"Nevertheless, welcome US friends, to the inevitable collapse of empire. You are not the first, and you will probably not be the last."
There is something very different about this empire. It has the ability to destroy most if not all life on earth. Will it lose its empire status with a whimper or a bang?
Feed the Turd!
The Turd's The Word!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHjw5wfoj10&feature=related
Fuck yeah Turd! That shit dont stink!
shit mine does. puchi
$700 initial investment in 1oz of Gold a couple years ago neted me $1700 + in federal reserve notes today at a local coin shop which will be enough to buy a new snowboard and gear for me and my girl. I hate to sell, but once in a while you gota live (and make women happy) Long story short, buy low sell high, have fun.
" I hate to sell, but once in a while you gota live (and make women happy)"
And that would be the logical conclusion of "on a long enough timeline the survival rate of everyone drops to zero."
Making women happy though eventually results in the repurchase of gold, albeit in forms other than bullion <sigh>
How much food will a second-hand snowboard get you?
I take your meaning, completely. Having fun for the vast majority of people on this planet means putting food on the table every night.
There are some kids who live down the street from me and they are skateboarders and nearly total losers. They care for nothing but boarding and self-aggrandizement. How well skateboarding correlates to snowboarding is unknown, though probably close.
Your new snowboard and gear - which you probably didn't need and could have bought cheaper used - demonstrate your ignorance about finances. Your gold could have been used as collateral for a loan with which to purchase whatever you wanted. The loan could have easily been paid back, depending, of course, on the term and rate, with gains in gold over the term.
Instead, you now have one ounce less of gold, one snowboard and gear worth 50% less than what you paid for in fiat money. I hope you at least get some decent powder. Eventually, you can sell the board and gear and repurchase less gold at a higher price.
You should have kept your gold and paid cash. Like the skateboarders down the street from me, you are a moron, one of the 99% who are there because they deserve to be.
yeah, never buy anything new or at a retail outlet. I mean, let the rich people do that who have oil money or something.
I get to wear brioni because I shop right. Buy a cashmere overcoat in the summer when nobody wants one, pay $700 instead of $7000.
Buy that snowboard crap off CL in the spring or something; plan ahead.
Probably the most idiotic drivel you've ever elaborated here.
If I want to go snowboarding when there's snow on the ground, your advice is to wait 6 months, find the cheapest used "crap" I can on CL, then wait another 6 months and hope I still have the desire and opportunity to go snowboarding an entire YEAR later? Just so I can say I gave up the minimum amount of "money" I could have given up at any point in time in exchange for this 1 item? Hell, if that's the goal then I have some even better advice: why not wait even longer? Who knows, in 10 years one of your friends might give up the hobby and you could get his old snowboard for free.
And you think your choice to only buy discounted Brioni leftovers that other people didn't want is somehow more logical than choosing to buy exactly what you want, when you want it, from a selection that is orders of magnitude more comprehensive than the shit in your closeout bin?
And the only people who should buy anything new or at a retail outlet are freaking OIL TYCOONS??
What a pathetic way to crawl through life, as a BITCH to your own money. FFS, the stuff gives you MORE options and GREATER freedom. How mindfucked do you have to be to let it DICTATE YOUR CHOICES FOR YOU?
Wow you're really stupid. Am I regretting selling ONE stinking oz of Gold that I profited handsomely on for enough fiat to buy new equipment for TWO people? Hell no. Everyone is at different levels of preparedness. Everyone holds different amounts of bullion. Go ahead hang on to every last oz and do nothing with your life. Shit money is meant to be spent if you're in position.
LOL, I guess you don't understand.
Money is an end, not a means. The goal is to live as ascetically as possible, accumulate "money," and die in your used Ikea chair that you proudly bought for less than the market value of the wood.
God forbid someone should actually consider the possibility of giving up any of their "money" in exchange for a wider range of experiences or situational ephemera while they're still young enough to enjoy it
Last year, due to some dumb luck in the silver market, I cashed in some of it and bought a new model 535i. Is this the same thing on an even worse scale? Perhaps, but I'm not going to live forever and I still enjoy it. A used one would have been cheaper, but maybe not as enjoyable.
You only go around once, so you might as well do it with gusto. Or you could spend all your evenings doing midnight gardening.
Yeah but the point is, you are asking responsible people to bail you out when you and your children go hungry.
Fuck that! You ain't getting any gold, food, or anything else, from me, buddy. Have fun with your toy.
What makes you thing I'm asking "responsible people" to bail me out? And why do you think I need bailing out? And why do you think I have children that are going hungry? You assume too much.
Somehow, I doubt you would bail me out even if I was conforming to your definition of "responsible people". Correct me if I'm wrong.
I don't want any of your stuff. And I'm am enjoying the new "toy" although I don't consider it a "toy". It's high quality transportation.
When you have your next stroke which by your attitude and stress level should be pretty quick or your house catches on fire you damn well better not call 911 asshole because other people pay for the paramedics & the fire department way more than you do. And while we're at it you don't get to use roads you didn't pay for 100% and I want your address so I know where to dump all the toxic waste you've created over your lifetime..
I can keep going for days but your not worth the time.
Holy shit you sound like a fucking Maroon Cartoon.. lemme get this straight, you want this guy to go into a bank or a collateral/payday/loanshark and put on an app that he has a coin in a lockbox in his closet and take a loan out against it? No one on planet earth would do that without taking possession number one which totally defeats the point in the first place, number two no bank would even fuck around with penny ante bullshit like this right now and besides if you don't trust banks anyway which is certainly plausible then none of this matters anyway which leaves the Dollar Loan chop shops that all charge 3 points a week. Last I checked the gold price wasn't exactly beating that.. And even if it was if you take the loan to make any kind of consumer purchase you still have to have the disposable income necessary to repay the loan so it's all meaningless anyway on the exchange over time, you have to give up possession of the coin for collateral so you don't have that security and you still have a debt obligation where the possibility exists of losing the collateral and getting dinged on your credit if you can't pay the loan on schedule. Tell me where this is a good idea in any way..
I'll get preachy, I don't give a fuck. This whole conversation is fucking psychotic. Times are tough, what else is new.. people are lying, cheating & stealing all over the joint, the government sucks & is totally on the take.. we could all get hurt & generally taken to the cleaners.. shit happens. I could really care less to be honest, I didn't start this game & I've never particularly taken a stake in it. If I lose some shit so be it, never really defined me anyway, life goes on. But the more you looney tunes try to hoard shit & hide it the more paranoid you get and play into the same game of fear & desperation that has been playing the masses for suckers since the beginning of time. Your choice, I ain't anybody's mother but it gets old, ya know..
The Dalai Lama still smiles everyday, look what he has to deal with.. get real.
I tend to avoid women who are into water and snow "sports".
Chinese mining industry tells government to dump 300 billion in US treasuries for global resource (gold) spending spree.
http://caspionet.kz/eng/business/Chinas_gold_miners_offered_authorities_...
the problem with this logic is that stacking gold and silver isnt going to 'help as many people as we can'. In fact it is just a reshuffling of who comprises the have and have not demographic from its current hierarchy. How many on this site are sympathetic with the OWS crowds, yet are secretly building precious metals stashes? It is a bit hypocrytical IMO -railing against the 1%, yet trying to gain standing in a new 1% at the same time (hypocrytical but natural at the same time)
precious metals may go higher, but lets not kid ourselves that this is a worthwile social pursuit. if the few % of peoples stack gold and silver end up having outsized cultural influence in the coming paradigm, then we havent changed much have we.? Culture is an emergent property in large human social systems -there are many possible futures -what we decide has wealth and value in a social system is ultimately up to us. I own a small amount of gold and silver, but I cringe when I imagine the future where gold and silver have replaced social stability and the complexity of trade, exchange and trust we've had over past few generations. I know it has to be replaced, but with gold and silver as 'what we can do about it', we are left with the same acquisitor mindset. I prefer to prepare in more constructive ways.. (I expect this concept to get soundly downrated on this site)
if I have the largest stack, you will like my culture.
ok, some of you won't, those with low IQs who wanted children.
If I end up being part of the new 1% because I prepared for it, I'm ok with that.
I don't care who ends up in the 1% if they prepare or work hard or think hard etc. I only care if they are there because they stuck their dick so far up my ass they can vacuum my wealth away before it even gets to me.
Fuck the banksters, Fuck OWS, and Fuck you.
I'm done with trying to change people's perceptions about anything. I've converted a couple of people to awareness of the current transitioning into the new world, etc. Have been ridiculed and looked upon as a moron by most I've put a lot effort into educating. I take care of myself, my increasingly more aware sister and a couple of friends now. After years of trying to put the word out, that is where my energy goes now. Fuck everyone else.
My experience is similar re trying to get people interested in owning PMs. Only ONE took it up at my suggestion. ZH-er tmosley says that only 1% of Americans own non-jewelry gold. Only two other people I even know have gold and silver. No one wants to hear it.
So, I think about my own family now. Our kid will get our gold.
I saw an article in a local college rag today about selling gold... FOR CASH (woo woo!).
They listed the pawn shops, and the gold buying kiosks at the mall, but not our local coin store that's been in business for over 20 years (who far and away offers the best price). And of course, not one word about buying.
And this is at a university with a prestigious journalism school. I would've left a comment, but it required an account.
I said the same thing. The reply from one of our close friends was: "My 401k looks great."
They didn't want to hear the possible pitfalls of being "all in" in one asset area.
When my wife and go, the stuff we leave the kids won't be taxed or confiscated.
*As a disclaimer, before I started read blogs like this one, I too never would have thought of owning PM's.
The big hurdle I keep running into is that people somehow lack the ability to see "paper" as an asset class. If someone has an IRA/401K, they think their investments are diversified because they have a stock fund AND a bond fund.
I had the discussion for a few months with my father until he really "got" the idea that all the various financial products were very similar when compared to the counterparty-free gold, head of cattle, and fine art. Even land is somewhere in between.
Gold, cattle, and fine art are not counterparty-free. Their values depend on counterparties' demand thereof. If no one wants your sunflower picture, as Vinnie noted, it's not very useful for trading into a bottle of vin and some bou.
Hey Phadreus: that's not at all what Bd meant by 'no counterparty risk', IMO.
Let's try that again:
say I have a decent cache of 'vin', enough to get me and mine through a couple of winters, so I'm willing to part with some for something of value; barring any coercion/force, am I more likely to trade you a portion of my cellar for:
A. an infinitely reproducible paper IOU that may or may not represent some work that someone might have done, or might do at some point in the future, should the issuer of the IOU be in a position to force them to do so.
Or
B. an easily recognizable tangible like gold/cattle/fine art that represents actual work that someone has obviously already done
?
If you answered 'B' you may already be well on your way to understanding which counterparty risk has been eliminated (nixed, naught, nothing'd) from the exchange by your choice.
But yeah, I could say 'no' to both A and B if I wished; eg. mb I really was hoping to get some diamonds for the soles of my wife's shoes, mb I am a vegetarian, mb I'm blind. Hell, were I a hopelessly enslaved Babbitt or just plain stupid I may even have obsequiously chosen A rather than B. But that isn't the point.
The point is: Bd wasn't talking about the counterparty risk of the trade, but the level of counterparty risk inherent (or not) in the medium of exchange used to conduct the trade, sophist.
Big difference there. Learn it. Know it. Live it.
You still don't get it. Gold, cattle, art and even paper currency all have counterparties, and counterparty risk, because neither you nor I live in a vacuum. If we did live in a vacuum, there would be no counterparties to value any of this stuff, but then what value would gold, art or currency have then? I suggest none. A beef steak might have some value. It is the market that is the counterparty.
Currency has value only insofar as people believe in it and desire it. The same is true for gold. FWIW, I do believe gold's counterparty risk is much lower than that of paper currency. But there is risk.
Heh, bold away, it is plain to anyone with a pair of eyes exactly who gets what in this conversation, and it's clear as an azure sky of deepest summer that you just don`t ken that 'a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush'.
Aha!
So here, finally, I encounter one of the individuals who is unable to distinguish between "currency" and "commodity."
Thanks, FeralSerf. I'd heard you guys existed, but didn't expect to bump into ya here.
Sorry pal, but I'm afraid the dialog is already above your pay grade.
Well then, you clearly do not ever read Karl "Klownshoes" Denninger, who believes that even houses are money, as is, apparently, EVERYTHING under the sun. And no, I am NOT putting words into his mouth --- not that there would be room for anybody else's words in his mouth, abundantly cavernous as it is.
I've had a lot of people tell me all sorts of things about myself here. You're one of the very few who said something that's accurate.
Started reading ZH in 2009 (I think) and bought my first silver Sept. 2010. It was a fun day.
As Obi-Wan said to Luke, "you've taken your first step into a larger world."
Come on back over to Turdtown Haole. DPH set up a good forum over there. No hassles with trolls.
I've was banned and am not coming back but thanks. I would have banned me too but there is something suspect going on there behind the scenes. Tell Stephanie to eat a dick for me, cheers and good luck BoP...
Haole, I am not a member of Turd's forum, but I do cruise it from time to time. If you don't mind telling us, what did you do there, or feel that you did, that deserved you being banned from there? Mahalo.
I don't think anyone needs to know my story but suffice it to say it was my own fault ultimately and was a concious decision on my part initiated due to behind-the-scenes interactions that soured me to the point of just carelessly throwing virtual punches for kicks and will remain confidential.
So... you went full-retard?
Not at all. Unless you call being obnoxiously blunt, perhaps disrespectful to a degree, "full-retard". The censorship there was night and day from a board like this for instance but it's Turd's little dictatorship and I consciously brought it on myself admittedly.
Let's leave it at that please guys.
In the end Turd does a great thing for the world and he doesn't need this type of BS being said publicly.
I wasn't banned but I left his blog a little while go and won't be going back. He and his girl are living in their own private universe and I want no part of it. They won't decide reality for me.
I also agree Haole with your post on educating others to precious metals. I no longer talk about it. In my case the ones I did talk to didn't have the money to invest in it. Or they could not understand it was not buying precious metals but investing in them. Or the world will just muddle along the way they have always known and stocks and bonds will always be better investments.
It's not just PMs either Fred. It is literally about questioning everything one has come to know as the truth thanks to a lifetime of programming, cognitive manipulation and conditioning. From money to human history to geopolitics to what's going on around us in space. We have all been, and continue to be, lied to about many things. Ignorantly believing we're such a devine, intelligent anomaly in a cold, sterile universe.
"I want to lose this skin I'm imprisoned in" - Tymon Dogg
That is exactly what I meant.
I've enjoyed the chat guys and i think Haole, you have behaved with great decorum.
i detest being moderated and its why i stay with ZH - it doesn't moderate
i also browse Turds site and i remember his call on Gold going to $1600 being a great comfort to me and keep me buying TFDips.
But i wont be joining Turd,
i dont have the bloody time.
If you come back to this thread Haole, I'd be curious what some of your favorite 'red pill' sources have been.
I've been voraciously reading, studying any and all sources I can but constantly discover new rabbit holes -- and I was a Philosophy and Anthropology major at an Ivy League school :-)
Always looking. Or hit me up at myusername@gmail.com
Much obliged.
Every blog needs its trolls.
I hate it when the choir sings the same song over and over.
Turd is an interesting fellow, but he has been so wrong in his timing. He even promised to quit blogging if gold didnt reach 1600 by his prwdicted date. Yet he is still around, and his choir sings the same song to each other over and over.
I am interested in a variety of opinions.
mosely-claven should fit right in there.
Lord knows if you even question silver or gold as a 110% buy over here, you get junked into oblivion. The only saving grace of ZH's comment sections is that nobody gets censored but we've got our own echo chamber in a manner here too
Nice to see that I am constantly and always on your mind, Trav.
lol, what a weak asshole.
Plenty of differernt views there. atlee is very bearish, and so are some others.
ivars and his endless spamming of charts was the troll issue over there.
Turd is very fair. Haole had trouble with one of the Mods. I didn't know he got banned. First I've heard of that.
TCT, Turd only missed that call by $23 bucks or something like that. Then gold went to $1921. Cut him some slack please.
I had a PM conversation with Haole the 16th of Oct the day of the "banning". That day was when "Jane" was powertripping. She sent me a PM that evening and told me "one more peep and you will be banned as well". She is a real peach. Anyhow, Haole is missed.
some posters on Turd's blog are too obsessed with their "hat tip" leaderboard scores.
which became the drama of the week, with those same obsessives following his posts around whining about "ivars gets eleventy hat tips every time he posts, no wai is that fair!!!!" - instead of just using the "Ignore User" button that Turd made available to all. ivars set up his own thread on the forums, and the same crew followed over to continue to harass him there with "you don't love Turd like WE do" nonsense. unfortunately, it's all been deleted by the mods, which I disagree with - removing posting history, unless it's outrageously out of context or unnecessarily obscene, is just pretending discord doesn't happen, not a great precedent - but again, I understand Turd's stance on that, even if I don't agree - his blog, his call.
the blog posts have been really good these past couple of days since some took to their own space to air their grievances, toast each other's brilliance, etc. - more people are posting, less unnecessary continuous posts trolling for hat tips, less "omg, you guys are just like me!!" echo chamber commentary.
the hat tip leaderboard should be tossed tho' - it just makes the blog post space like commercials strewn through programming - the notion that it's there to "identify the most useful posters" is obsolete at this stage.
Ivars calls have been more precise, prescient, and accurate than anything Turd ever predicted. My take is that Ivars was just excited about his modeling and how accurate he was. I don't visit Turd much anymore. Like he even admitted, "anyone can draw these sharpie charts like me". I appreciate what he does, but the blog has gotten out of control.
ivars remained completely respectful when under a daily barrage of "move your spam" "don't link your charts" "don't talk about Turd's blog at ZH" etc. etc. - even when the famous five moved into his "Ivars Charts" forum to troll him, he continued to maintain his cool, and that earned my respect.
and my anonymous "vote down" above is transparent - you dudes are really lucky those posts were moderated out - if they got linked around a few times, you'd look like the ridiculous playground bullies you are. FYI - revelling in being a "follower" of anything or one is rather off-putting when you start to take it so seriously. read the blog, contribute, but maybe leave the "I'm a loyal Turdite" at the door, especially if you're going to use it to attack others - I doubt it impresses Turd that much anyhow, hmm.
Bullshit. You guys are out of your minds. ivars doesn't know shit about gold or silver. Virtually nothing.
Please get your head out of your asses. Or just STFU as you have no idea what your talking about.
BoP, irrespective of what Ivars does or doesn't "know" about PMs, he never would have been so rounded upon had he not started to pass some folks in Hat Tips, as the blog posts prove, if any are left after the deletion.
There's no real excuse to continue to moan about him - put him on ignore, as Turd has provided you that option. He has just as much right to post as you do, as does anyone who responds to him, on whatever topic. Your "everyone who doesn't agree with the crew is a troll" stance is silly. If Turd thought Ivars was a troll-pest, I'm sure he'd get his mods on the case, they're very good at deletions, and he has said repeatedly he stands by them - where's your loyalty to THAT stance??
Life's too short dude, just enjoy your "speakeasy" pals and stop plotting.
Haha....that's BULLSHIT. Why don't YOU wake up? What's your handle over there asshole? I'll take u out...
you're a small man, with a small point of view, and there are plenty of others like you, so feel free to stick to your small circles, chasing your tail, and your page view / hat tip numbers, like they matter - I'm not even remotely interested in you, we'll leave it at that.
Hey, dickhead Aura,
10,882 views in 3 days. Yeah, you have it right don't you? LOL.
Funny you say that. Some of those guys you flame told Turd to never have the H/T board in the first place.
Nice try to discredit those posters though. Your fuckan pathetic dude.
I hear ya, I tried to tell family members to take some cash out of the bank and keep it on hand, I mean the CDS exposure could cause a hicup easy in the U.S. We are making nothing in the bank, it is safer under your mattress for christ's sake. They look at you like your crazy, never mind pm's, try some extra food. There is lot's of time I think but on the other hand look at the culmination of everything, the warning signs are flashing huge, the path is fairly clear.
The extra food part is getting to be an easier sell, due to all of the price increases. Don't even need to get into the Doomsday scenario anymore.
I never post, however, how could I resist with this article!
Technical analysis, a fancy name for price charts, to predict a rigged market...
Better yet, to read the minds of the Dudes who are rigging the market, now that's funny.
The crooks do, in fact, run stops. That's a good place to start..., and stop.
But, if you think, you'll choose better on the fundamental side, oh, well...
Turd's blog should be on every pm followers daily read. He really Is impressive.
+ 1
Yes, but take a look at pmbug.com. That website is a calmer and more deliberative forum-style site, that while small now is growing nicely. Take a look!
Disclosure: I am not Mr. PMBug nor FOFOA, but I contribute to both.
What I don't understand about gold: what happens to it once the dollar collapses and the government issues a new currency? Seems it will lose a lot of purchasing power as soon as the new paper is issued, at which point I'ld assume there is a default and no debt. Correct? That's the lone risk I see. I've never heard a reasonable answer to that question.
Does anyone know gold's purchasing power at the end of Weimar Germany and how long it kept that purchasing power?
They can issue as many currencies as they want—what matters is what currency people choose to use.
If anyone missed it, Eric Sprott has applied for a chartered bank license to create a commerce-bullion bank that will possibly have a debit card and checks linked to the amount of gold/silver in a customers account.
Google 'Sprott Continental Bank' to read about it.
Keep an eye on Sprott - that guy's making major moves.
Indeed, but already he faces some obstacles as recently the Royal Canadian Mint and TD Securities has partnered up to offer Gold ETRs (Exchange Traded Receipts) on the market. Each receipt will be offered starting at $20 and will be redeemable for 0.4 grams of gold, however, when I looked into it littler further, the mint stated that the gold is unallocated and is based on physical supply stored at the mint. There was also a footnote stating there will be no recourse against RCM or the Government of Canada in any event. The ETR's are planned to be launched sometime in late November.
Purchasing power is what you witness when you pay a tax. If you are ordered to pay tax with tooth paste, tooth paste has purchasing power.
Other answers to seek are how much fiat will your gold purchase when you need it to pay a tax? What are the risks and what will the costs be when you participate in that exchange? Stuff like that.
devo,
Does anyone know gold's purchasing power at the end of Weimar Germany and how long it kept that purchasing power?.
Weimar was ONE country, we are talking the basic global structure.
When and if Gold goes to around 10k, it will be time to get out.
Rahter leave a few thous on the table, than the bulk.
That's when you invest in REAL tangibles, and get the hell out of dodge.
Who will you sell to?
The farmer. You could wear a sign,
"Will provide work already done for food".
1.Debts are always paid whether directly or indirectly. Somewhere, someone always pays.
2.Debt cannot extinguish debt, only money can.
Knowing these things, when the dollar currency crashes it's value will flow into gold quickly. It is happening now slowly. Only the speed of flow is in question, not the direction. After the transition, Gold will contain enough purchasing power to repay all debts. Otherwise, what's the point? New currency will be issued at a rate commiserate to all debts being covered by gold. Whatever "price" that may be is irrelevent. Value will be the key. When the dust settles, those with metals will be king.
Well, I don't see how this is possible. If everyone is exchanging into metals then everyone will have metal and thus everyone will be king...? Do you mean people who started buying gold montly in the 70s will be king? Maybe, but I doubt it. Government will not let average people become wealthy.
I think in the end government will be king. They'll either take our dollars, gold, or land. If people start burying their gold, they'll send out agents with metal detectors. I have no doubt they'll try to curb this gold rush with some kind of tax...if they tax gold purchases 20% people won't buy. They'll do something like that.
~2% is not "everyone." "Average people" think gold is only for pirates. Increased restrictions or taxes only drives it further underground and becomes even more valuable.
You quote the Banksterz Bible, from Bernake & Geithner LLC.
What's behind Door #3? DEFAULT.
Gold will never be used to finance debt, why waste it? Gold is your Survivor's Tool. This whole concept of debt that needs to be supported is flawed, debt is Negative Dollars that cancells out Positive Dollars, and Interest is the Banksterz TAKE. All will be flushed, then you still have your gold. It will not be wasted on debt or dollars, somebody else said they would "sell" at $10,000 but reality says you will never convert into dollars- you will convert into Food, Ammunition, gasoline.
Put on you thinking cap, is it as big as Turd's? I like yellow.
I never said gold would physically be used to repay debt. It will be valued enough to back a new currency and money supply which will be commiserate to repay debt. That's when you get your "cancellation" of debt, only it isn't canceled but covered by liquidity and confidence. This is a crisis of confidence because of fiat's inability to permenantly backstop anything. That crisis will only end once debts are backstopped via ownership of gold not canceled. What you do with your gold after that is your business but it's purchasing power will be at a higher level than now. Much higher. Of that we agree. Why will it go higher? To repay debt! Otherwise, what's the point?
Default is repaying debt indirectly because former value of government guarantee will flow into gold and other commodities. Gold will then backstop a new currency or number system which will have enough power to backstop debt. There is no, "everything starts from scratch now."
When the dust settles, those with metals (, that can hide or defend them from the State,) will be (weathly monions paying taxes to whom ever is) king (at that time).
Turd is the word.
heard the turd. leave it to turd to help us when the shit hits the fan.
What makes you think Turd, or anyone else, will do jack for you if the SHTF?
you miss my point, he's helping us now.
Turd's helping himself. This is natural. Did you notice how much Adriana got for Huffington Post?
I don't consider what he's doing wrong. But a little realism won't hurt you.
Haole
What makes you think Turd, or anyone else, will do jack for you if the SHTF?
The same thing I would HOPE everyone here that has an OVER abundance of resources would do.(if it's someone close or a stranger. We came into this world without anything, and we are going out with nothing.
Help them.( Tired a place to rest,Hungry, food to eat,thirsty,something to drink, need clothing/coats/shoes, provide them), it's called Charity (Love).
That's why capitalism is the best,everyone cannot be equal, the haves share (voluntarily) with the have nots.
IF we all had the same, we would be screwed,as a race, and a people.
We don't all have the same and we're still screwed as a race and a people. How does that figure into the equation?
good question
rat bastard western bankstering jackasses will not get one ounce of my physical STASH. They can come get my gold/silver eagles by crossing the threshold of my home. I'll be happy to deliver exactly what the scum goons deserve. Got it all gift wrapped and couldn't care less if I go down in a flaming bloody mess to keep it out of the vermin's hands. Turd advocates phyzz. Harmony & balance in all things from physical bullion , cash, & stocks. Frankly I'm completely off the grid and like it that way. Screw the wall street thugs and the paper pulp fiction the thieving jerks peddle.
How are you "completely off the grid" if you're posting on ZH. Don't you need that internet thing to do that?
What is the end game?
Currency reform.
100 old dollars for 1 brand new one.
This is the only way institutions and status que survive.
Now you know the end game what can you do about it. Get your money out of those Old dollars, and into something that will be priced in brand new ones.
This means PMs because they will most likely work the best for the transistion as everyone else rusthes into them for that same reason.
You can play trading games till your little heart is content but on that fateful day you better be long them because you will not hear no bell telling you its time.
Hope this helps.
Happy Anniversary Turd !
I'll take the rapist for five hundred Alex.
It's therapist.
Thanks for the clarification!
And The Penis Mightier
I'll take Swords for 500.
Stack your physical while there is time.
So if I understand.. because there is fraud I might profit from, I should participate in the fraud?
Wait a second.. is this one of those group psychology experiments to prove humans are no different than rats?
Ok, so let’s get real shall we? I always get attacked every time I try to explain the true nature of why we are in such a fvkin mess. Think for minute that you are an advanced being from the federation of planets put in charge of the human species studies on earth. Your advanced civilization has defeated death through science and you have been studying humans for 1000 centuries and now it is time to turn in the report. My gut guess says it goes like this:
“Your excellencies, I have returned from the dreadful planet that the humans call earth with this troubling report. It seems the specie Homo sapiens are a horribly flawed life form. The largest problem I have witnessed is the never ending struggle one against the other for elevation of self. Back in 150,000 QE, Gronak came back to the cave and found Kronk banging his perceived personal cave women and proceeded to beat him to death with a brontosaurus bone. This same mindset has followed the species to present day where they are killing their planet and all living organisms on it for shiny objects and elevation of one over others through a notion of ownership. Through the centuries, humans have invented reasons to convince themselves and others the necessity of slaughtering one another for the never ending pursuit of different things thought of as valuable. A mere 2 centuries ago we sent Magnavegh disguised in human form to assist them with our current healing sciences and nanotechnology to free them from disease and starvation but they killed him for it by nailing him to a chunk of wood and leaving him hanging there. We tried again last century with free energy but their flawed mindset burned it to the ground because there is no “money” in freedom and enlightenment. At present day they have perfected their killing apparatus and are on the threshold of total planetary destruction. Grab your glonkorn and some red snorkeljuice; this is going to be a show because there is no way in galactic of stopping them.”
Now let me share something with you. My brother is a thief, stealing from anyone and everyone he possibly can because as he says, “I need that money.” He has elevated himself over all others because of a prideful mindset that says he is entitled to others labor, blood and sweat and THAT is, has been and will be our total destruction. From the age old shitty sin of pride will result in the death of our species unless there is divine intervention. This truly is our only hope. Oh, and any divinity better be bullet and bomb proof because if someone had the cure to just cancer- he/she/it would be dead in a minute because there is no money in cures only treatments. As a test, try to make it one day without witnessing the manipulation of pride. Remember, “you are what you drive. Be the first one on the block to have ______. If you buy _____ you will be the prettiest girl in the trailer park. This bone is exactly the one you want to stick through your nose as it is way better than those other more common hyena bones and you wouldn’t want to be seen with anything less in this, the greatest mutherfvkin jungle that ever existed in history, would you?”
O.. and btw..I hate you fvkin ppl. I am not a racist, I am a speciest. All hatred is evenly applied.