This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Turd Ferguson: The Inexorable March Higher For Precious Metals
Submitted by Chris Martenson
Turd Ferguson: The Inexorable March Higher For Precious Metals
Turd Ferguson is a funny guy.
But there's one thing this irreverent, acerbically goofball forecaster is stone-cold serious about: the need to build personal exposure to the precious metals.
For him, it's a straightforward mathematical certainty that the global economy must collapse under the weight of the excessive (and exponentially compounding) credit amassed over the past several decades. The debt is simply too large to be serviced.
As a growing number of analysts (including Chris) are predicting, Turd sees the replacement of the world's current monetary regimes as the endgame to this story. And he believes we are watching that endgame unfold in real-time now.
In this interview with Chris, Turd discusses his reasons why gold and silver offer the best prospect for preserving wealth through the coming devaluation of world currencies, despite his strong conviction that the markets for these metals are heavily price-manipulated.
In fact, it's precisely due to this manipulation that Turd is able to predict short-term price movements in gold and silver as confidently as he does:
Believe me, if you looked at my trading account and looked at my success in trading corn, or soybeans, or crude, or something like that: I make choices just as badly as the average guy. The reason why I am successful in forecasting gold and silver is because they are manipulated.
Because once you understand that the bullion banks, particularly JPMorgan in silver, are in there trying to stack the deck in their favor, then you use some simple technical analysis. And you begin to see where they're going to act, where they're going to place some sell orders to try to start cascading waterfall selling by tripping stocks. It's not real hard. I mean, its pretty basic stuff. But once you admit to yourself that if this does take place, it makes forecasting where price is going pretty easy...
We see this quite often where the prices of gold and silver – they decline rather sharply after hours, after COMEX trading hours, on the Globex because volume is so thin there. A little bit of money thrown at the market – any new paper shorts can have a rather dramatic impact...
And that is where the manipulation has a lasting impact. And you can't get that money back... And it takes a whole bunch of new buy orders, a whole bunch of new speculative longs and commercial longs to come in and bid it back up to where it was before that raid. And so, they're always going to be in there. Again, I guess the ultimate question is at who's behest are they doing this? But, nonetheless, they're in there controlling price, managing the assent, if you will, to create this illusion that there's still confidence in the dollar, that all is well. And that it's okay to go buy a new car.
Turd sees the precious metals as a true barometer of the dollar's devaluation as the Fed pursues its policy of negative real interest rates -- which is challenging for the average consumer to see, when the dollar may strengthen on a relative basis versus other fiat currencies and the government-published CPI is artificially low. In his opinion, the government is well aware of the signaling function of the PMs, and therefore feels it needs to manage their ascent in as drawn-out and orderly a process possible in order to prevent the frogs in the pot (i.e., the citizenry) from noticing that the water is getting a lot hotter.
The important mission here, in Turd's mind, is to realize that the economic reality we have come to accept as "normal" is over, and to take protective action. And once you have done so, to try to help those around you wake up to that fact -- a major challenge, as most people don't want to think about it, and the entrenched status quo powers are aggressively marketing that 'return to normalcy' is just around the corner:
The last thing I would add to that, Chris, and one that's challenging, and I'm sure you've seen this too in working with your subscribers is where we are headed is unlike anywhere where we've been, at least in recent memory. I mean, there may be some octogenarians out there that remember what it was like before the Great Depression and during the Great Depression and before World War II. But it's a world like that where we're headed to.
All I've ever known, all my friends and family, even my parents really have ever known is this hegemonic United States that was the world power, and provided the world's reserve currency. And we could print as much as we wanted to, and then export the inflation to all the other poor staff that had to – took our dollar. And so we bought their cheap stuff. And those days are over, and it's a really hard concept.
If you haven't had personal experience with something else, it's a really hard concept to get your arms around. That the United States isn't going to be this huge economic and military superpower. Just because it always has been doesn't mean that it always will be. And as we talked about, the numbers and the fundamentals suggest that it's not always going to be.
And so you got to kind of prepare yourself that tomorrow's not going to be like today, that we're in a new paradigm. And try to intellectually figure out, okay, how do I survive and prosper in this new world knowing that it's coming? And that's what we try to do. I know that's what you try to do. And it's our job, Chris, to try and help as many as we can.
Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Turd Ferguson (runtime 47m:19s):
iTunes: Play/Download/Subscribe to the Podcast
Download/Play the Podcast
Report a Problem Playing the Podcast
»
- 34177 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Blame it on the women.
The only reason I need the most fasionable hyena bone in my nose is because I love pussy. Status is the greatest aphrodisiac.
Change womenfolk if you want to change society.
Blame the farmers.
Everything was hunky-dory until those bastards came along and started 'cultivating' everything.
NOW look at us.
Ahah! I just knew the Iraqi's had WMD's. I just didn't know that they were so many thousands of years old! Dick Cheney I owe you an apology; what say we go hunting and let bygones be bygones.
You pasted that whole troll and you don't have the balls to type "fuckin"?
I dunno if I'm above yer brother, but I'm above you. Pussy.
that was the dumbest fucking post I have ever seen.
Competition for dominance is an evolutionary MANDATE. How ELSE should we arbitrate whose DNA is to be passed on and whose isn't? The cooperative pacifist species were all KILLED to extinction, idiot.
Free fuckin energy? REALLY? Where the fuck was this magic shit?
ooo, I just know this is going to suck and I am going to be labelled moonbeam by association, but wtf, Bushmill's is magic shit,
ever see a cross section of the planet?
I know, I know. How on earth could we ever access it? Aside from the incredibly limited number of obvious places, I mean.
Try to bear in mind that all we need is ~100 degrees C to do what we've been doing for most of the industrial revolution: boil water. (Shit, with currently existing tech a 50C diff could do plenty)
Now look at all the new developments in drilling techniques we've come up with in the past century, particularly in the last two decades or so. Oh sure, so far we've only been focussed on sucking the dinosaur soup and/or farts from the crust, but guess what: we're dealing with a 100C plus more and more often, the deeper we go. And we keep looking deeper and deeper.
Go figure. But yeah, no infrastructure, and vested interests, deeply vested interests. Tailored English three piece suit (with vest) vested interests.
Meh, I'm probably just full of shit and drunk. Feel free to snark away.
You must have seen the comedy skit about how we are collective weakening the gene pool by allowing idiots to survive where otherwise they would have eliminated themselves! Example: putting a label on a fan-belt that says "do not install on a running engine."
Tyler, when (if?) FOFOA writes another gem like "The Shoeshine Boy", consider bring it over. THAT article got you hundreds of replies...
@Devo
Your question is a good one and seems sincere enough. You may want to read some FOFOA to see what he thinks is the answer. Then again, I propose a different answer to that question called "Vector Gold".
http://tradewithdave.com/?p=8381
Dave Harrison
www.tradewithdave.com
@ Dave,
One of my readers pointed me to your post re FOFOAness. I would be very interested to read your VectorGold idea when you are ready to publish.
Broadcast the word!
Disclosure: I am a FOFOA fan and am positioned accordingly.
I'd like to see what the Tyler thinks of the Keystone thing. The fact that Obama put off any decision till early 2013 just smacks of political opportunism. One enviromentally conscious friend was saying this was a victory. I held back (because I do like having friends) but I thought it was such a blatent political move.
It was a blatant political move. Putting off Keystone put money in Buffett's pocket. They'll have to haul that heavy sour shit from Canada's sands on Buffett's fleet of Berkshire-owned rail cars.
Test me and read up on it....it's called political patronage bitchez!
yesterday bought 100 more oz. of .999 Ag and it felt great :D
Fraud as an investment/business model? If I search for posts on Zero Hedge that condemn that very principle, how many will I find?
still pissed. might even spam about it again.
I think the point is how to protect yourself from a fraud that you cant change.
Tyler, thanks so much for bringing Chris and Turd's interview to ZH. In respect to the interview, we all hear everwhere "there's too much debt" and "buy gold and silver". Well the boyz and I down at the "smart bar" (and yes, there's a stupid bar also) were debating over a few heavy hops what each of us would do IF we won 100k from the lottery or, if Aunt Edna had so graciously remembered us in her will.
So fellow Zero Hedgers and Turdites, I ask you to be financial judge and jury for me and the boyz to help us reach a verdict;
If you had a 100k windfall tomorrow, what would you do-
1. Pay off the $3,000 you owe on your business tax deductable car?
2. Pay off the $40,000 boat you bought because your former girl friend who dumped your stupid ass after summer just loved boats?
3. Pay off the $13,000 you owe for your new roof which, if you faithfully pay monthly is a zero interest loan.
4. Pay off the $5,000 you owe for your vacation time share which keeps your sanity.
5. Buy gold and/ or silver.
Would you pay some of the debts or, all of the debts?
What's more important today- reducing debt thus, increasing savings etc. Or, prepairing for the coming financial and monitary holocaust by forgoing accelarated debt payment and investing in the PM's.
What would YOU do?..
I'd pay off those debts.
Sell the boat.
Buy some gold and silver.
Use the rest to make a community contribution - food bank, homeless shelter,
school feeding program, community garden.
There are countless ways to spread the luck of a windfall while benefiting you and family as well.
Our system is already giving away so much to people who dont work that we have disincentivized work and productivity among the lower classes.
What would be the highest moral calling and best use of the windfall would be to build a business that employs even just one of those people.
You havent spent much time with the chronically homeless. Most get a disability check. Most would rather live on the streets and do drugs and alcohol than work.
Our system is already giving away so much to people who steal instead of work that we have disincentivized work and productivity among the Wall Street classes.
What would be the highest moral calling and best use of the windfall would be to offer free food and legal advice to OWS (starting a business and employing some people isn't such a bad idea either)
You haven't spent much time with the chronically sociopathic financial 'industry'. Most get a cheque for being unable or unwilling to earn an honest living, and get their money by stealing it from you. Most would, rather than work, do expensive designer drugs prescribed by psychiatrists, drink expensive alcohol, and live off the backs of others in giant mansions paid for by your honest labour.
1. If it's deductible, keep on paying it down to reduce taxes. If no tax advantage, pay it off.
2. Sell the boat or turn it back to the bank. Credit scores? Hah! Like they matter.
3. If it has a lien attached to it, pay it off. If not, depends on who you owe it to, if it's 'the mob' pay it off. If it's the PITA brother in law, make the payments.
4. Sell the timeshare or hand it back to 'whoever'. It'll be worthless as time goes on and they are horrible investments.
5. Buy both.
Make sure you have adequate reserves of FRN's and PM's. If you don't have some property way outside the urban zones, consider buying some to replace your time share, build, stock, and secure it. Hang out there and regain your sanity. In the event things go south, have a plan to go there with your 'stash' and weather the storm.
Don't have that dilemma, because I don't have any debt.
If I did, I would buy the gold and silver. Fuck the bankers.
I heard that turd guy is a wizard or some kind of sorcerer or sumthin.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/11/slovenian-bond-yield-...
Slovenian Bond Yield Breaks 7%, First Time Since Euro Entry in 2007; Might Slovenia Exit the Eurozone First?
Reality is the criticism of the Federal Reserve. The shelves are very sparse, these days, in the liquidity supermarket. The compny store ran out of physical gold and silver, long ago. Now they issue rain checks, called ETFs. Any business in the real world would have to have going out of business sale.
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/
I'll take "metals" for $25,000, Alex.
The (unofficial) Internationalist Financier Anthem:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=wQZKwptjPwk
Comin' Down - The Angels
Psychopath, young man
Dedicated to efficiency
17, 28, 59
Looks like it's comin' down on me
Down on me, down on me, down on me
Hold tight! big brother
Calling in the name of liberty
Lots stone take your place
Looks like it's comin' down on me
Down on me, down on me, down on me
(Looks like it's comin' down on me)
(Looks like it's comin' down on me)
(Looks like it's comin' down on me)
Down on me, down on me, down on me
Never so many are watched by so few
For so long, by so much for big brother!
Never so many are watched by so few
For so long, by so much for big brother!
For so long, by so much (for big brother)
For so long, by so much (for big brother)
For so long, by so much (for big brother)
For so long, by so much (for big brother)
(Solo)
(Looks like it's comin' down on me)
(Looks like it's comin' down on me)
(Looks like it's comin' down on me)
Down on me, down on me, down on me
Never so many are watched by so few
For so long, by so much for big brother!
Never so many are watched by so few
For so long, by so much for big brother!
For so long, by so much (for big brother)
For so long, by so much (for big brother)
For so long, by so much (for big brother)
For so long, by so much (for big brother)
(Looks like it's comin' down on me)
(Looks like it's comin' down on me)
(Looks like it's comin' down on me)
Down on me, down on me
(Looks like it's comin' down on me)
(Looks like it's comin' down on me)
(Looks like it's comin' down on me)
Down on me, down on me
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=UrUzKH_A2m8#!
He just needs to have a tipple .. and look the other way:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=-UL3z5BmIgk
TURD seems like a good shit.
Thanks for dropping in.
Used to frequent a bar on ToityTurd and Turd
LOL
I like the Turd and all but Chris Martensen interview? Really? I think Martensen just lost a little street cred IMO. Peace.
The biggest problem with trying to educate others about the value of owning PMs is that then they know you own PMs. Here in the US we have very little experience with being betrayed by friends or even family members to a totalitarian government ( coming very soon to a neighborhood near you) so we assume that we are somehow protected by the strength of the bonds we have with others. People in the rest of the world are not so ignorant - there is probably not a family anywhere in most of the rest of the world that has not had one or more members betrayed and given over to the torturers and killers by even those closest to them, and so they understand what can happen. Best advice, often given, is to keep your mouth shut. Period.
Amongst the people I like, I talk about metals. I never say if I own any, how much, or where I keep it. I just try to get them thinking.
Amongst the people I hate, I downplay the metals and repeat what the bubbleheads on CNBC say about everything.
I think this idea of preserviing wealth is catching on. At lunch the other day I heard several lawyers saying they moved half of the firms "war chest" into PMs after they went to Kyle Bass lecture in Dallas and UT bought several hundred million $$ of Gold Bars.
Buffet says,"you can't eat gold" ....who knows?
Can't eat crap stock certificates either, and that's if can u find them.
a woman I know, has some actual stock certificates, and she told me, her broker is trying to get them into his possesion. my question is, why? I told her, that is a red flag, without a logical reason. cash out,
Tell her to get the "fuck out" NOW !
anytime someone tells you to get your certs run as fast as you can !
Almost all common stock these days is owned by Cede & Co. as legal titleholder. This is basically the Wall St. equivalent of MERS for real estate, and it was probably the model for setting up the MERS system.
The details are boring, but once Cede & Co. owns the legal title, you no longer own the stock. You own a brokerage statement that says you have a "long" position in the stock. Chances are very good (nobody really knows for sure, since no outsiders have ever seen the records, if any detailed records ever existed) that your "long" position is not backed up by any real stock, there is no way, and I mean absolutely no way, to learn who stole your shares or how or when it happened, and your contract with your brokerage says they are not liable to you for the theft. Wall St. likes it this way, since it lets them electronically print as many shares of additional stock in the world's corporations as they see fit without anybody being the wiser.
PulauHantu29
Buffet says,"you can't eat gold" ....who knows?
Buffet was trying to score points w/Wall Street, and the PTB.
Have Warren give you some Gold, and see if you cant eat like a king, because you had it.
Is Chris Martenson a ghay? I think he is obsessed with his free range chickens.
I always thought that faggot timothy sykes is the satanic spawn of Chris Martenson. Do you agree? If so who is the baby momma? Blythe Masters?
If not please show me the fallacy in my logic.
Why so many negative votes?
Don't you know the formula?
Gold + (short)Silver = Pennies;
Bitchez!
Re Is Chris Martenson a ghay?
If it was free-range gerbils he was raising, you might be onto something...
OT,
What happened to hyperinflationary Belarus anyway? 100/1 exchange or still muddling through? Bueller, bueller?
Turd is the Word!
I'm not too sure about the pay off debt thing. I own apartments, which still have just shy of $1 mil left on the mortgage. If I take every penny I earn in the next six months or so, I MIGHT be able to rack up $60-70,000 worth of PMs. That's it. But just rough-averaging....is 1200 oz of silver and 15 oz of gold "enough"? How do you know if you have "enough"? I'd feel a lot more comfortable with more, but then again, I'd feel a lot more comfortable having that then having nothing.....
I guess my question is, why in the world would I use that money instead to pay off apartments which pay themselves? Even if the SHTF and I lose the apartments, at the very least I still have my PM stash for myself and my family.
If you have debt that holds your principal residence in hock, move the security to some other collateral(next to impossible). ie. don't put your only safe haven in jeopardy. Having all those PM's, etc. do you no good if you don't have some place to park them. Use your leverage or cash flow to secure a property not tied to your investment properties, that is, don't use it to secure the note/mortgage. Keep it outside of any LLC or Corp. as well. If things go south, dump the apartments, shutter the Co's, and move to the alternate if required. If opportunities arise to increase your RE holdings to up your cash flow, do it. Just don't leverage your 'safe haven' no matter what.
The debt does in fact hold what I would consider my "primary" residence in hock...I needed to mortgage that home in order to make the initial downpayment. Even though I have repaid that mortgage in full (in less than two years, mind you), the bank has basically said they will not release it. What are my options? Do I have none, other than find another bank who will take on the loan? I've also picked up four foreclosures with cash thrown off by the apartments, but the second two required me to "leverage" money from the first two I paid with straight cash, so now they have mortgages on all four of those, as well. If worse comes to worse, I guess I'll move back in with my parents.....who are thankfully covered, since I was able to convince my father to buy a PM portfolio comparable to my own, if not a bit smaller, but he not only owns his own home, but plenty of other properties outright, as well. In this doomsday scenario, I guess I'd hold out there, hoping my PM stash will be able to allow me to reestablish property ownership down the line, whereas no PMs leave me with nothing to leverage.
Like I said, I'm just trying to figure out what the "right" amount for PM holdings would be, given my own portfolio.
1200oz of silver is way the fuck too much.
Haha....okay.
I didn't junk you, but I know some people hate on silver and love gold. Personally, I'm trying to go for a 60%/40% silver/gold ratio in dollars spent. I also only buy 1/10 oz gold rounds or less...except for two 1/2 oz pandas I got from a reputable eBay seller, some luck and 3% over spot price. I love silver, because the returns seem to be better. I love gold because it's a behemoth whose price movements are more stable.
Hold the pixels!
Maybe this is old news to ZH (just got up out here in Asia), but if not I predict record comments and record anger when Tyler posts the article.
On CNBC (who would have thought), they ran a story on legal Congressional insider trading, which even one former SEC official did not know was allowed. Yes, Congress exempts itself from insider trading laws.
The results of Congressional stock portfolios:
Average House member vs. S&P….+6%
Average Senate member vs. S&P…+12%
In other words, House members are on average “as good” as Louis Bacon in his best years, while Senators are “as good” as George Soros.
Now I see that Raj (and later Gupta) will be doing time not for insider trading, but for underperformance. And if our Congress is so financially brilliant, it seems solving the budget crisis would be a piece of cake.
Jesting aside, could this revelation be what finally brings out the pitchforks, MP5s and guillotines?
F*cking sons of b*tches, one and all.
Nice score Chindit. Scooping team Tyler is hard to do. Much appreciated.
Not my score. Also, bad of me to hijack Turd's thread, but this is the most visible of ZH's articles today. And damn, CNBC broadcast this. Out of the mouths of babes!
If I am a moderator at the next Repub debate, I'd ask every candidate---especially those who sit/have sat in Congress---why this is so. Even Ron Paul. It's not like he hasn't had time to introduce legislation to close this. Also, if I'm campaign manager for any candidate facing an incumbent, this is something I would hammer in every commercial, ad, debate, public speech, etc.
I seem to remember Turd was banned from ZH at one point so WGAS. And while I'm at it fuck CNBC.
And stop your grandiose ideas of redemption. I know these cock suckers will bury this information.
All it provides is one more reason to hate these scum sucking maggots!
No offense Chindit but I thought that was common knowledge hereabouts and did not bother to bring it up... I figured you all knew we are being ruled by the criminal class..
Swine is as swine does
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=WSBD3JFIgVw
Old news bud - it was on here about 3 months ago or more. Nothing will bring the pitchforks out apart from hunger. And when that happens the pitchforks will be pointed at each other , the 99ers. Look at the breakdown of who got their heads chopped off post french revolution : 80% were equiv lower/middle class.
Cant cure stupid and unfortunately a herd species like ours is very dumb BUT has a bitch of a survival instinct. Ironic. Bit like cockroaches.
I copy that - i was pissed of about this 3 or 4 months ago.. and guess what - they got away with it.
I'm aware this is old news. The extent of abuse of this exemption, while suspected, has never been quantified until now.
Having tomorrow's newspaper makes it easy. Being able to write tomorrow's newspaper, via legislation, makes it easier still.
Until today, I do not believe figures had been publicly aired, that is, that the average House member beats the market by 6% and the average Senator beats the market by 12%. That is "astonishing" alpha.
Maybe I just needed another excuse to blow a gasket.
yep, that's better than what Bernie Madoff was 'returning' each year.
Thanks for the numbers chindit. Nice addition to the ammunition.
THIS is absolute PROOF of what a bunch of f'n IDIOTS we have running this country.
Anyone with access to the kind of information these people have, and being completely free to trade on it, should be seeing returns 10-50 times better!
The numerous Jack Abramoff interviews seen and heard recently should bring out the MP5s, M1As, Mxxxs and guillotines...
We have all been Penn State'd...
Got me there.
acerbic [uh-sur-bik] Example Sentences Origin
adjective
1.sour or astringent in taste: Lemon juice is acerbic.2.harsh or severe, as of temper or expression: acerbic criticism.
For those who have been around for a while, Turd used to be a frequent poster here at ZH who then went off to form a PM focused site. It's nice to see him given a "hat tip" from ZH. I agree with some of the comments that the moderators on the site have been a little over-zealous (drunk with power?) but I suppose it stops the trolls and whack jobs from taking over, like they do sometimes here. Overall, visiting www.tfmetalsreport.com is part of my daily rounds, and I would recommend it to you, if you have even a passing interest in the PM market. Some of the comments there are also funny as hell sometimes as well.
The so-called "end game" (actually, just the next "end game" in the series) is forcing the entire world into a single "one world currency". Shortly before they do that the western governments of the world will make it illegal to hold gold [or silver] bullion, because they know for damn certain most people would much rather have gold be the "single currency" than their worthless pieces of fiat, fake, fraud, fiction, fantasy, fractional-reserve debt-toilet-paper currency".
JP MORGAN IS THE TRUE MANIPULATOR OF SILVER AND AT TIMES EVEN GOLD...
As I predicted, I am spamming about this again.
The presence of fraud/manipulation would be better defined and presented as an element of significant risk.
Regardless of your ultimate intentions or your philosophical findings in the flowery fields of relative ethicalism, what you're doing there is just plain slimy.
meh
Don't get me wrong, I love PMs, however I respectfully disagree with Turd and some of the rest of you. Rampant hyperinflation... not likely as people would be paying back home loans, etc., in tomorrow's $$ to banks and the banks would get screwed in the long run - the banksters won't let that happen and they make the rules. More likely is that temporary inflation will take place, people will resort to debt/interest to pay the bills, salaries will decrease (to be competetive with the world market) and I'm betting on future deflation will be coupled with higher interest rates - why? Because it benefits those who make the rules the most of course... i.e., your friendly neighborhood bankster.
1. Get the masses into deeeep debt.
2. When the masses can no longer pay their debt, or even the interest on the debt raise the interest rates on them (citing increased risk as the rationale - just like what's happening to soverign nations to are borderline insolvent.
3. Wait for the pendlum to swing and then play the inverse.
borderline insolvent? there's a global margin call, on money that doesn't exist yet. it's gonna take a big roofie to keep the world from knowing they got fucked