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The Two Scariest Charts In Europe (Got Scarier)

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It seems, as JPMorgan's CIO Michael Cembalest notes, that ahead of yet another EU Summit; everyone understands now why Europe matters (even the once-bloviating decoupling diehards). The summit is likely to focus on bank recapitalization, easier repayment timetables for Greece, bank deposit guarantees and an alleged “roadmap” for EU integration. The challenge, Cembalest confirms, is that Germany cannot afford a blank check given debt levels already over 80% of GDP. However, if policymakers don’t do something about growth in the Periphery (bailouts primarily designed to aid German and French banks don’t count), the North-South divide will continue to widen, putting pressure on the ECB and EU taxpayers. Sometimes there are no easy answers. Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal are contracting at a 2%-5% annualized pace, and unemployment in Spain and Greece is sky-rocketing (1st chart). These levels are notable from an historical perspective. As shown in the 2nd chart, 20%+ unemployment was the level at which National Socialists in Germany began to take seats away from liberal democratic parties during the 1930’s. If the jobs picture does not improve, other EU policy decisions may not matter much (as we noted six months ago)!

Spanish and Greek Unemployment

 

Unemployment and The End of Liberal Capitalism 1930s

Source: JPMorgan

Finally for all those who vehemently claim this can never happen in Europe, feel free to click on the logo below:


 

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Mon, 06/25/2012 - 12:57 | 2558493 veyron
veyron's picture

Wake me up when its all over ...

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:01 | 2558516 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Ben The FED Taking USa to the same place ...

 

Run to GOLD, Bitchez...

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:16 | 2558571 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

to be woken up after.....only if you believe in life after death....

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:39 | 2558688 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

A united Europe going down in flames vs an ununited Europe going down in flames.  Whatta tuff decision.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 14:11 | 2558861 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

"Wake me up when its all over ..."

Gonna mail it in huh?

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 15:16 | 2559144 Waffen
Waffen's picture

Golden Dawn?

 

Their platform is to expell foreigners and be nationalistic.  

they are certainly not libertarians or anachro capitalists, but atleast they are pro Greeks, unlike all the other parties

 

self preservation of national identiy and culutre.. OMG, be still my heart

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 15:31 | 2559199 verum quod lies
verum quod lies's picture

You obviously didn’t get the memo; pro nationalist parties run by Europeans are only allowed to do that in Israel (i.e., without the standard denunciations and ad homonym attacks, etc.). As the Israeli Interior Minister said: Israel “belongs to the White Man.” Yeah, let's trot out the mindless Nazis and Hitler canard/red herring whenever we want to heap scorn on people giving a sh_t about their country and their future until there is no country or future to care about because it is a Third World hellhole with rampant unemployment and parasites low and high as far as the eye can see (i.e., just like the place the dear “immigrants” came from).

 

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 15:54 | 2559273 Waffen
Waffen's picture

 

For the Goyim

mass immigration, loss of national soveirgty, blanda up

 

For the Chosen

nationalism, deportations, anti-miscegenation laws

 

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 16:04 | 2559301 BattlegroundEur...
BattlegroundEurope2011's picture

If they get into power will all the Greeks leave my country??

 

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 12:57 | 2558495 Mongo
Mongo's picture

The moment shit hits the fan... captured in its entirety

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:00 | 2558511 Jason T
Jason T's picture

worse, the ship is going to hit the sand!

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:08 | 2558549 Tirpitz
Tirpitz's picture

quicksand

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 14:16 | 2558882 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Sand is a slow scrapping stop on the bottom of your sailboat.  Try hitting an island called reality.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 12:59 | 2558504 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

This is just getting pathetic now.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:00 | 2558505 mark7
mark7's picture

That is some fancy charts on the wall of your nice American GLASSHOUSE. Do we Europeans automatically turn into Nazi Zombies when unemployment hits 20 percent? Must...have....LEBENSRAUM! LEEEEEBEEEENSRAUUUM!

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:06 | 2558538 sunaJ
sunaJ's picture

Source: JPMorgan would like to think so.  War is the endgame for the self-appointed masters of the universe.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:06 | 2558540 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Source: JPMorgan

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 15:19 | 2559156 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Actually I shared the same "report" from Bloomberg last week:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spain-utters-b-word-ruins-party#comment-25...

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:07 | 2558543 somecallmetimmah
somecallmetimmah's picture

"Do we Europeans automatically turn into Nazi Zombies when unemployment hits 20 percent?"

 

No sir, but we, just like you, respond to desperate circumstances with pathological support for radical "answers".  We're right behind you.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:14 | 2558557 flacon
flacon's picture

Ich wusste dass nicht. Haben Sie ein Bier, bitte?

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:12 | 2558565 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Very true.Though the Bund did not get any congressional seats ,it had

a widespread following in the US that was proportional to the

unemployment rate,right uptil Hitler declared war on the USA.

Glass houses indeed.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:56 | 2558772 Treeplanter
Treeplanter's picture

The EU is Nazi Zombies, y'all are too dumb to figure it out. 

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:00 | 2558506 killallthefiat
killallthefiat's picture

Does this mean that we will be getting more board meetings starring Hitler, subtitled in English?

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 14:50 | 2559047 RacerX
RacerX's picture

Yes! Moar Hitler parodies!

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:00 | 2558509 Gidas19
Gidas19's picture

just print on one side of the bills, then with the saved ink print double the amount of fiat... problem solved...

p.s Fuck you bernanke!!!

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:02 | 2558521 Mountainview
Mountainview's picture

The Greek "Golden Dawn"s score is proof of this theory...

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:02 | 2558522 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Spain can start by building a very wide road and call it "es auto bano" 

Just days after the 1933 Nazi takeover, Adolf Hitler enthusiastically embraced an ambitious autobahn construction project and appointed Fritz Todt the Inspector General of German Road Construction. By 1936, 130,000 workers were directly employed in construction, as well as an additional 270,000 in the supply chain for construction equipment, steel, concrete, signage, maintenance equipment, etc. In rural areas new camps to house the workers were built near construction sites.[6]The job creation program aspect was not especially important because full employment was almost reached by 1936. 

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 16:22 | 2559353 BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture

I can only imagine how much resistance there would be to a huge, trans-continental high-speed road here in the USA.

I think even with majorities in both parties, in both houses, with support from the president, it just couldn't be done.

Too much red-tape.  They could never get past agreeing on a route.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 18:27 | 2559742 BigJim
BigJim's picture

The Nazis wasted vast sums of money on fundamentally unproductive infrastructure and, later, weaponry.

Between 1933 and 1939, the total revenue was 62 billion marks whereas expenditure (at times made up to 60% by rearmament costs) exceeded 101 billion, thus creating a huge deficit and national debt (reaching 38 billion mark in 1939) coinciding with the Kristallnacht and intensified persecutions of Jews and the break-out of the war.

 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Nazi_Germany

 - http://mises.org/daily/3274 takes an interesting look at the Nazi 'economy'.

In fact, one of the reasons they went to war was to secure raw materials; they couldn't afford to pay fair market prices for them any more.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:04 | 2558534 lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

zek heil 

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:05 | 2558537 mark7
mark7's picture

Neo-Nazis have much better chances to succeed grabbing power in the Homeland Security USSA with Patriot Act (it was Enabling Act back then with Hitler). You got already the infrastucture for it.

There are some pockets of these idiots here and there in Europe but I don't see them taking over Germany, Spain, France or Italy. Eastern Europeans are also fed up with either Nazis or Communists or whatever "ists" there are.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:16 | 2558573 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Eastern Europeans are also fed up with either Nazis or Communists or whatever "ists" there are.

What about JPMorgan-ists?

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:43 | 2558706 Cojones
Cojones's picture

Really? Then please explain why there are huge groups of neonazis in Poland, Ukrain and Russia.

 

 

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:52 | 2558749 Centurion9.41
Centurion9.41's picture

You confuse politics with people & principles.

What's killing America and freedom is the "progressive" mind, and the absence of mind in those libertarian's/anarchists who are amoral.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:10 | 2558553 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

The unemployment charts for Spain, Greece and Italy are scary in terms of trend. Spain is just above the US rate, but below the U6 measure.

This is going to be an interesting week!!!!!

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/06/25/the-new-siegfried-line-merkel-dismisses-eurobonds-and-eurofdic-while-spain-and-cyprus-seek-aid/

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:13 | 2558567 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Please. People have changed since then...

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:54 | 2558759 mkhs
mkhs's picture

For the better?  There's your hope and pocket change.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:16 | 2558574 Stormy Weather
Stormy Weather's picture

I seriously doubt there was unemployment compensations in 1930 tho.

Unemployment doesn't matter, it's "official" numbers, doesn't include the millions of people being unemployed but living on black market etc.

Only starving matters.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:16 | 2558575 Cultural Capital
Cultural Capital's picture

During the post-war period when cheap energy resources were abundant, Western government's around the world tried to enact egaliatarian meaures like the welfare state and what have you.  This temporary stupor gave the people without history a sense that they were neither a master or a slave.. 

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:18 | 2558585 rfaze
rfaze's picture

The last time Germany gave a blank check it started WWi.......

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:49 | 2558730 Centurion9.41
Centurion9.41's picture

Sorry son, you'll have to elaborate....

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 16:45 | 2559429 rfaze
rfaze's picture

After the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand......

On July 5, the kaiser gave Berchtold’s ambassador what has become known as carte blanche or “blank check” assurance that Germany would back Austria-Hungary in any punitive action it chose to take against Serbia. This was the beginning of WWI.........

Did anyone know this........


Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:20 | 2558593 Abner Doon
Abner Doon's picture

Just emailed to Kirsten Pittman, business reporter at the Charlotte Observer;; From: Spivey, William - Sent: Tuesday, May 08, 2012 4:17 PM - To: Hartzman, George

 

http://hartzman.blogspot.com/2012/06/from-spivey-william-sent-tuesday-ma...

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:28 | 2558629 neutrinoman
neutrinoman's picture

In the German case, in the early 30s, you forgot the Social Democrats and the Catholic Centre party. Neither was liberal-capitalist in the sense being used here, but they were democratic. They are the ancestors of the two main German parties today. They could have easily formed a coalition with the two other democratic parties you mentioned, to prevent a Nazi takeover. A Communist takeover was never a serious threat, except in certain parts of Germany.

Most of the new "money" created by the ECB is credit, not real money, so it won't lead to hyperinflation in any case, just as it hasn't here in the US. The big danger is continued asset deflation and destruction of collateral, leading to more spasms of default. The overall price level in Europe will probably suffer a mild deflation.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:39 | 2558634 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:30 | 2558639 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Source JPM -  Stopped right there, no one said that watching the zombie banks rip each other's faces off would be pretty.

Got physical?

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:32 | 2558651 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

I clicked on the logo, and read this:

 

"Scholars and media describe it as neo-Nazi[8][9] and fascist[10] although the group rejects these labels."

 

Sorry but I believe the group rather than "scholars and media". 

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 15:21 | 2559163 Waffen
Waffen's picture

anyone that raises questions about the holohoax, is labeled a nazi

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:38 | 2558657 Doode
Doode's picture

Why are you comparing Germany in 1930s that was the most technologically advanced nation on the planet to a today's backward poophole like Greece and marginally better Spain? If tomorrow Nazi's took over either or both countries NOTHING would happen! 

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:47 | 2558723 Centurion9.41
Centurion9.41's picture

Charts are pretty, but data can be twisted into colors and forms that confuse the mathematically ignorant.

Here are the facts.

 

Fact: Socialism, under the narcotic of credit, over time becomes an addiction.

Fact: Club Med's debt is a result of the exact same behaviors and human frailties of addicts.

Fact: "Club Med" countries can not survive under the debt they created.

Fact: Addicts do not have a chance at recovery without hitting "bottom"

Fact: Germany can not grow Club Med out of the debt they created without Club Med hitting bottom.

Fact: Elections in Greece & France PROVE the people of Club Med do not believe, or do not understand, Socailism is an addiction that has them by the cojones.

 

IF Germany enables Club Med via funding while pulling out a Paulson "financial bazooka" to scare away the predatory mob who want Club Med to pay its tab, the mob will turn on Germany.

So Germany can not, can not, commit suicide trying to save an addict. 

It is that simple.

Germany is simply the partner in a marriage trying to figure out how to get out with the least amount of pain and damage.  So it cajoles the addict with white lies.

 

Some addicts, even after looking down the long alley known as skid row, do not have the strength to turn around. 

Some addicts walk down skid row and fall in the gutter.

Some addicts even fight, violently, those family members who try to stop their stumble to and into skid row.

Some addicts are given the Grace to turn around and walk up the hill.

 

The European's have stumbled down a long steep hill and arrived at the "L" corner of skid row;

there is no other way to go except down skid row, a dark descending road, or turn around and trudge back up the long steep hill they just came down.

That's it. 

There are NO OTHER options.

With the Greek & French votes, the addicts have said "I cant walk up that hill!". 

And from the depths of skid row they hear the voices of the Keynesian and politicians echoing forth "trust us, just take another drink and come join us, it's okay, it's all good....."

 

The addict does not WANT to be saved.

The addict does NOT believe reason or wisdom or the history of man.

The addict WANTS to believe they can still take the drug and it will be okay.

 

There was a chance the EU/Club Med could survive, IF, IF it had sobered up, grew up, too responsibility, and worked its way out of the situation.

IF it had turned around and started to walk up the hill.

 

However the "Greatest Generation" has believed its own fiction. 

The reality is that generation raised spoiled, amoral, children, and voted themselves and their children rights and entitlements without paying for them.

The recent elections in Greece and France prove they still wander around with their delusions.

 

The problem with a fiat currency system is NOT the system. 

The problem is MAN.

The problem with the EU is its creators hoped MAN had changed enough to accept a new system, and hoped if they got men addicted to the drug of credit that they could lead man down their road of paradise.

 

But the drug-dealer started to believe the promises of the addict.

Now they are both addicts.

If you find yourself believing them, well you might want to ask your friends if they think you're an addict or the ignorant enabler.

 

The people of Greece and France have spoken.  They dont want to walk up the hill.

 

And if you think the rest of the "progressives" in the EU and world think differently.....

Well, good luck with that.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 17:27 | 2559563 bombimbom
bombimbom's picture

you seem to be unaware that Germany is second only to sweden in the european 'most socialist' list.

 

BTW a good dose of socialism in a society (look social-ism, socie-ty, they must be related) is just good sense, good policy and the way to keep a healthy society. you won't convince many europeans of the contrary, even most of the right wingers, we were never brainwashed to hate the word socialism to begin with.

 

 

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:50 | 2558738 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Keep good records of what really happened so the Keynesian collectivist re-writers of history won't have a leg to stand on.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:51 | 2558745 twocents
twocents's picture

Don't worry all. I have a solution.

I call it the 'collateral toilet'. Basically, the banks issue us all with new toilets which have a scale in them. Every time you take a dump, the 'collateral' is weighed and you are then able to claim up to 200 times this figure in fiat money. If you need additional 'collateral' then there is always the 'fig and rotten vegetable support mechanism' (FRVSM) -also  available in powdered form. It is guaranteed to produce a speedy, sloppy and highly aerated bowel movement in times of desparate need and can be re-hypothecated.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:54 | 2558764 straightershooter
straightershooter's picture

I think German already know the fianl resolution of the crisis.

Just open any German article, book, etc.  Do you see it now?

 

DIE FRau! Die Euro! Die this, and Die that!

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 14:01 | 2558809 AbbeBrel
AbbeBrel's picture

Hey let's face it only the Germans had the "chutzpah" to really mess up the whole world twice in a century.   And again in this century?    Funny to use a Yiddish phrase to discuss a German capability.

But now it really is the Banksters turn.   They all are completely bankrupt insolvent whatever.    Everything you see or hear spinning on the telly are their attempts to save themselves from THEIR OWN fractional reserve actions (in the COMPLETE absence of regulation, THANK YOU GREENSPAN) in the form of banking "policies" and pigtices (formerly practices).   - AB

Bulls can make money, Bears can make money, but PIIGS get SLAUGHTERED.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 14:06 | 2558837 penexpers
penexpers's picture

Even if countries like Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece are overrun by neo-Nazi wannabes they will have to produce their way out of their problems.

If a country, be it Spain for example, hoists a quasi-Nazi flag in Madrid's main square they're still a country whose GDP is contracting like crazy, whose bond yields are exploding and whose unemployment rate is approaching critical levels.

"Wow, nice fascist parade, Spain... Ohhhh, look at your shiney Nazi regalia... don't forget:  you're still in a depression."

 

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 14:12 | 2558864 q99x2
q99x2's picture

National Socialists for America

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 14:15 | 2558877 simpleminds
simpleminds's picture

Though there is likely serious turmoil coming for Spain and Greece, I do not think that they pose any serious threat such as a depressed 1930's Germany.  Greece and Spain have neither the industrial or military resources to accomplish anything outside of controlling their own populace.  I do feel sorry for the citizens of those countries for what they are likely to have to go through.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 14:44 | 2558996 falak pema
falak pema's picture

while we are in Euro dooom and soros implosion gloom lets take a look at the energy paradigm bloom of frack gas america :

North America Is Poised For Huge Natural Gas Shock - Business Insider

Big inconsistencies in the way to plan your way into the future. Energy game is a long term game; for oil the logistics is easier for gas its a nightmare if you think fast action cowboy; as to plan infrastructure requirements requires time, especially if the depletion rate is like it is and the EROEI is like a limp hopium dream. 

All those who say "aye" to fast action frack gas hero, hi-ho silver away, raise their lone ranger hands!

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 14:46 | 2559019 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

It may wind up that way, but there is a slight difference between Greece today and Germany yesterday.  In the Weimar Republic, the unemployed had no place to go.  Germany, the engine of Europe, was flat on its back.  Today, Greeks, Spaniards, and Italians may perceive that they can emigrate to Germany for better prospects.  So, I expect a fairly sizable migration into Germany (may already be happening), followed by conflict.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 15:06 | 2559103 Blkhat117
Blkhat117's picture

Well today is Interesting as the Shits hitting the fan EVERYWARE!

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 15:52 | 2559255 nicxios
nicxios's picture

GOLDEN DAWN! It (nationalism and Metaxasism) is the future, even if Greece first has to suffer through Syriza before the leftists/socialists/communists are finally fully discredited. Greeks will give up freedom to regain freedom.

 

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 17:33 | 2559579 bombimbom
bombimbom's picture

GOLDEN SHOWER would have been a better name.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 17:29 | 2559570 Clancy
Clancy's picture

How can you read Zerohedge and be opposed to the Golden Dawn?  It's only way out of this mess.

 

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 17:35 | 2559587 bombimbom
bombimbom's picture

the only way out of this mess if you want a far worse mess bordering nightmare.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!