The Two Scariest Charts In Europe (Got Scarier)

Tyler Durden's picture

It seems, as JPMorgan's CIO Michael Cembalest notes, that ahead of yet another EU Summit; everyone understands now why Europe matters (even the once-bloviating decoupling diehards). The summit is likely to focus on bank recapitalization, easier repayment timetables for Greece, bank deposit guarantees and an alleged “roadmap” for EU integration. The challenge, Cembalest confirms, is that Germany cannot afford a blank check given debt levels already over 80% of GDP. However, if policymakers don’t do something about growth in the Periphery (bailouts primarily designed to aid German and French banks don’t count), the North-South divide will continue to widen, putting pressure on the ECB and EU taxpayers. Sometimes there are no easy answers. Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal are contracting at a 2%-5% annualized pace, and unemployment in Spain and Greece is sky-rocketing (1st chart). These levels are notable from an historical perspective. As shown in the 2nd chart, 20%+ unemployment was the level at which National Socialists in Germany began to take seats away from liberal democratic parties during the 1930’s. If the jobs picture does not improve, other EU policy decisions may not matter much (as we noted six months ago)!

Spanish and Greek Unemployment


Unemployment and The End of Liberal Capitalism 1930s

Source: JPMorgan

Finally for all those who vehemently claim this can never happen in Europe, feel free to click on the logo below:

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veyron's picture

Wake me up when its all over ...

BaBaBouy's picture

Ben The FED Taking USa to the same place ...


Run to GOLD, Bitchez...

vast-dom's picture

to be woken up after.....only if you believe in life after death....

The Big Ching-aso's picture



A united Europe going down in flames vs an ununited Europe going down in flames.  Whatta tuff decision.

JPM Hater001's picture

"Wake me up when its all over ..."

Gonna mail it in huh?

Waffen's picture

Golden Dawn?


Their platform is to expell foreigners and be nationalistic.  

they are certainly not libertarians or anachro capitalists, but atleast they are pro Greeks, unlike all the other parties


self preservation of national identiy and culutre.. OMG, be still my heart

verum quod lies's picture

You obviously didn’t get the memo; pro nationalist parties run by Europeans are only allowed to do that in Israel (i.e., without the standard denunciations and ad homonym attacks, etc.). As the Israeli Interior Minister said: Israel “belongs to the White Man.” Yeah, let's trot out the mindless Nazis and Hitler canard/red herring whenever we want to heap scorn on people giving a sh_t about their country and their future until there is no country or future to care about because it is a Third World hellhole with rampant unemployment and parasites low and high as far as the eye can see (i.e., just like the place the dear “immigrants” came from).


Waffen's picture


For the Goyim

mass immigration, loss of national soveirgty, blanda up


For the Chosen

nationalism, deportations, anti-miscegenation laws


BattlegroundEurope2011's picture

If they get into power will all the Greeks leave my country??


Mongo's picture

The moment shit hits the fan... captured in its entirety

Jason T's picture

worse, the ship is going to hit the sand!

JPM Hater001's picture

Sand is a slow scrapping stop on the bottom of your sailboat.  Try hitting an island called reality.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

This is just getting pathetic now.

mark7's picture

That is some fancy charts on the wall of your nice American GLASSHOUSE. Do we Europeans automatically turn into Nazi Zombies when unemployment hits 20 percent? Must...have....LEBENSRAUM! LEEEEEBEEEENSRAUUUM!

sunaJ's picture

Source: JPMorgan would like to think so.  War is the endgame for the self-appointed masters of the universe.

somecallmetimmah's picture

"Do we Europeans automatically turn into Nazi Zombies when unemployment hits 20 percent?"


No sir, but we, just like you, respond to desperate circumstances with pathological support for radical "answers".  We're right behind you.

flacon's picture

Ich wusste dass nicht. Haben Sie ein Bier, bitte?

Winston Churchill's picture

Very true.Though the Bund did not get any congressional seats ,it had

a widespread following in the US that was proportional to the

unemployment rate,right uptil Hitler declared war on the USA.

Glass houses indeed.

Treeplanter's picture

The EU is Nazi Zombies, y'all are too dumb to figure it out. 

killallthefiat's picture

Does this mean that we will be getting more board meetings starring Hitler, subtitled in English?

RacerX's picture

Yes! Moar Hitler parodies!

Gidas19's picture

just print on one side of the bills, then with the saved ink print double the amount of fiat... problem solved...

p.s Fuck you bernanke!!!

Mountainview's picture

The Greek "Golden Dawn"s score is proof of this theory...

Jason T's picture

Spain can start by building a very wide road and call it "es auto bano" 

Just days after the 1933 Nazi takeover, Adolf Hitler enthusiastically embraced an ambitious autobahn construction project and appointed Fritz Todt the Inspector General of German Road Construction. By 1936, 130,000 workers were directly employed in construction, as well as an additional 270,000 in the supply chain for construction equipment, steel, concrete, signage, maintenance equipment, etc. In rural areas new camps to house the workers were built near construction sites.[6]The job creation program aspect was not especially important because full employment was almost reached by 1936. 

BooMushroom's picture

I can only imagine how much resistance there would be to a huge, trans-continental high-speed road here in the USA.

I think even with majorities in both parties, in both houses, with support from the president, it just couldn't be done.

Too much red-tape.  They could never get past agreeing on a route.

BigJim's picture

The Nazis wasted vast sums of money on fundamentally unproductive infrastructure and, later, weaponry.

Between 1933 and 1939, the total revenue was 62 billion marks whereas expenditure (at times made up to 60% by rearmament costs) exceeded 101 billion, thus creating a huge deficit and national debt (reaching 38 billion mark in 1939) coinciding with the Kristallnacht and intensified persecutions of Jews and the break-out of the war.


 - takes an interesting look at the Nazi 'economy'.

In fact, one of the reasons they went to war was to secure raw materials; they couldn't afford to pay fair market prices for them any more.

mark7's picture

Neo-Nazis have much better chances to succeed grabbing power in the Homeland Security USSA with Patriot Act (it was Enabling Act back then with Hitler). You got already the infrastucture for it.

There are some pockets of these idiots here and there in Europe but I don't see them taking over Germany, Spain, France or Italy. Eastern Europeans are also fed up with either Nazis or Communists or whatever "ists" there are.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Eastern Europeans are also fed up with either Nazis or Communists or whatever "ists" there are.

What about JPMorgan-ists?

Cojones's picture

Really? Then please explain why there are huge groups of neonazis in Poland, Ukrain and Russia.



Centurion9.41's picture

You confuse politics with people & principles.

What's killing America and freedom is the "progressive" mind, and the absence of mind in those libertarian's/anarchists who are amoral.

Snakeeyes's picture

The unemployment charts for Spain, Greece and Italy are scary in terms of trend. Spain is just above the US rate, but below the U6 measure.

This is going to be an interesting week!!!!!

lolmao500's picture

Please. People have changed since then...

mkhs's picture

For the better?  There's your hope and pocket change.

Stormy Weather's picture

I seriously doubt there was unemployment compensations in 1930 tho.

Unemployment doesn't matter, it's "official" numbers, doesn't include the millions of people being unemployed but living on black market etc.

Only starving matters.

Cultural Capital's picture

During the post-war period when cheap energy resources were abundant, Western government's around the world tried to enact egaliatarian meaures like the welfare state and what have you.  This temporary stupor gave the people without history a sense that they were neither a master or a slave.. 

rfaze's picture

The last time Germany gave a blank check it started WWi.......

Centurion9.41's picture

Sorry son, you'll have to elaborate....

rfaze's picture

After the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand......

On July 5, the kaiser gave Berchtold’s ambassador what has become known as carte blanche or “blank check” assurance that Germany would back Austria-Hungary in any punitive action it chose to take against Serbia. This was the beginning of WWI.........

Did anyone know this........

Abner Doon's picture

Just emailed to Kirsten Pittman, business reporter at the Charlotte Observer;; From: Spivey, William - Sent: Tuesday, May 08, 2012 4:17 PM - To: Hartzman, George

neutrinoman's picture

In the German case, in the early 30s, you forgot the Social Democrats and the Catholic Centre party. Neither was liberal-capitalist in the sense being used here, but they were democratic. They are the ancestors of the two main German parties today. They could have easily formed a coalition with the two other democratic parties you mentioned, to prevent a Nazi takeover. A Communist takeover was never a serious threat, except in certain parts of Germany.

Most of the new "money" created by the ECB is credit, not real money, so it won't lead to hyperinflation in any case, just as it hasn't here in the US. The big danger is continued asset deflation and destruction of collateral, leading to more spasms of default. The overall price level in Europe will probably suffer a mild deflation.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Source JPM -  Stopped right there, no one said that watching the zombie banks rip each other's faces off would be pretty.

Got physical?

TWSceptic's picture

I clicked on the logo, and read this:


"Scholars and media describe it as neo-Nazi[8][9] and fascist[10] although the group rejects these labels."


Sorry but I believe the group rather than "scholars and media". 

Waffen's picture

anyone that raises questions about the holohoax, is labeled a nazi

Doode's picture

Why are you comparing Germany in 1930s that was the most technologically advanced nation on the planet to a today's backward poophole like Greece and marginally better Spain? If tomorrow Nazi's took over either or both countries NOTHING would happen! 

Centurion9.41's picture

Charts are pretty, but data can be twisted into colors and forms that confuse the mathematically ignorant.

Here are the facts.


Fact: Socialism, under the narcotic of credit, over time becomes an addiction.

Fact: Club Med's debt is a result of the exact same behaviors and human frailties of addicts.

Fact: "Club Med" countries can not survive under the debt they created.

Fact: Addicts do not have a chance at recovery without hitting "bottom"

Fact: Germany can not grow Club Med out of the debt they created without Club Med hitting bottom.

Fact: Elections in Greece & France PROVE the people of Club Med do not believe, or do not understand, Socailism is an addiction that has them by the cojones.


IF Germany enables Club Med via funding while pulling out a Paulson "financial bazooka" to scare away the predatory mob who want Club Med to pay its tab, the mob will turn on Germany.

So Germany can not, can not, commit suicide trying to save an addict. 

It is that simple.

Germany is simply the partner in a marriage trying to figure out how to get out with the least amount of pain and damage.  So it cajoles the addict with white lies.


Some addicts, even after looking down the long alley known as skid row, do not have the strength to turn around. 

Some addicts walk down skid row and fall in the gutter.

Some addicts even fight, violently, those family members who try to stop their stumble to and into skid row.

Some addicts are given the Grace to turn around and walk up the hill.


The European's have stumbled down a long steep hill and arrived at the "L" corner of skid row;

there is no other way to go except down skid row, a dark descending road, or turn around and trudge back up the long steep hill they just came down.

That's it. 

There are NO OTHER options.

With the Greek & French votes, the addicts have said "I cant walk up that hill!". 

And from the depths of skid row they hear the voices of the Keynesian and politicians echoing forth "trust us, just take another drink and come join us, it's okay, it's all good....."


The addict does not WANT to be saved.

The addict does NOT believe reason or wisdom or the history of man.

The addict WANTS to believe they can still take the drug and it will be okay.


There was a chance the EU/Club Med could survive, IF, IF it had sobered up, grew up, too responsibility, and worked its way out of the situation.

IF it had turned around and started to walk up the hill.


However the "Greatest Generation" has believed its own fiction. 

The reality is that generation raised spoiled, amoral, children, and voted themselves and their children rights and entitlements without paying for them.

The recent elections in Greece and France prove they still wander around with their delusions.


The problem with a fiat currency system is NOT the system. 

The problem is MAN.

The problem with the EU is its creators hoped MAN had changed enough to accept a new system, and hoped if they got men addicted to the drug of credit that they could lead man down their road of paradise.


But the drug-dealer started to believe the promises of the addict.

Now they are both addicts.

If you find yourself believing them, well you might want to ask your friends if they think you're an addict or the ignorant enabler.


The people of Greece and France have spoken.  They dont want to walk up the hill.


And if you think the rest of the "progressives" in the EU and world think differently.....

Well, good luck with that.