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The Two Scariest Charts From Today's NFP Report, Or The Real "New Part-Time Normal"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Back in February Zero Hedge was first to point out that while jobs may be growing (modestly) and the unemployment rate declining (rapidly, on the back of all those leaving the labor force), it was the quality of jobs that was troubling. Indeed, as today's NFP report once again showed, the average hourly earnings barely budged at $23.38 from $23.37 last month, and in fact declined on an inflation-adjusted basis. Why? Because as we predicted both in February (and in 2010) the US is increasingly becoming a population of part-time workers, as full time jobs disappear for good, and are offshored abroad at best. April confirmed everything we had been warning about: in the month, full time jobs dropped to 114,478,000 from 115,290,000 an epic drop of 812,000 in full time jobs which was the biggest since... March 2009! The offset? Why a surge in part-time jobs of course, which increased by 508,000 in the month of April. So while seasonally adjusted, birth/death recasted jobs may have increased by 115,000, the real quality jobs, imploded, which unfortunately is merely a part of a longer-term secular trend as part of the new part-time normal.

Full-time jobs and sequential change (full time):

Part-time jobs and sequential change (source):

And a longer-term view:

 

P.S. this is the last post on today's abysmal NFP report. We promise.

 


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Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:37 | Link to Comment Canaduh
Canaduh's picture

Shine your shoes sir?

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:12 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

At least oil is going down.....no one can afford it anymore.

 

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:20 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

I wonder if the price of hookers is indexed on it...

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:33 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Ditto

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 16:13 | Link to Comment Cast Iron Skillet
Cast Iron Skillet's picture

a lot of hookers work part time, I think. I once knew a girl who worked as a dental assistant during the week and hooked on the weekends. She was pretty nice.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:20 | Link to Comment The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Most people I know are part-time normal.  Rest of the time they're phuckin nuts.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Now there's an entrepreneurial spirit.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:38 | Link to Comment Muppet Pimp
Muppet Pimp's picture

Menial Employment for the lucky Soylent Green for the rest.  The beatings will continue until morale improves, YAR!

Snoop: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaCodgL9cvk

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:53 | Link to Comment brewing
brewing's picture

saw a figure somewhere this morning that the minimum wage would be about $20/hr if it had kept up with productivity and inflation over the last 20 years. mcdonald's wouldn't be that bad for that kind of cabbage...

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:01 | Link to Comment LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

except for a big mac costing your 12 fucking dollars.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 12:18 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I can't believe people still eat that shit. But I guess cheap calories are... cheap.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

 

 

"kept up with productivity" , Ha now therein lies the truth and the only promise kept.  That being the computers, electronics, advanced machinery will increase productivity so YOU won't have to WORK so hard ro as long.  Remember that promise in the 1960' and 1970's that you would only have to work a half a day and make as much.  It is true, you have a nice part time job, and you are making as much as you did in the 1970's.

And, who financed all this wonderful productivity?  Why none other than US...401k, Ira, pension funds, on and on.  We financed our own demise.  The one promise that was not kept, but made over the last 40 years, is that your standard of living would always be better because of all this wonderful productivity.

God bless Globaism.  That is what we were sold and bought, and all those protesters who screamed that it would destroy jobs...what did we do with them...why we put them in jail.

The sheep keep buying fancy word speak that they don't want to understand, and worse still...will not question.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 15:58 | Link to Comment JeffB
JeffB's picture

Neither advances in technology, nor improvements in productivity have hurt us.

The perversion of the economy came through the central banksters and and the financial industry their destruction of true money, in lockstep with their capture of the government through campaign donations and the free flowing money from their lobbyists.

 

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:39 | Link to Comment Rubbish
Rubbish's picture

Will work for Silver

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:43 | Link to Comment William113
William113's picture

I paid a company in silver last week to pour a concrete floor. REAL MONEY BITCHESSSS

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:51 | Link to Comment trembo slice
trembo slice's picture

Unless you're just spreading sound money awareness bad move!  You familiar with Gresham's Law?  You're supposed to use the artificially overvalued money in commercial transactions!

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 12:19 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Damn right. Hold on to your real money, spend the fiat shit while you can still get something for it.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 13:13 | Link to Comment smb12321
smb12321's picture

I pay the yard guy two silver dollars each week.  I have thousands and consider it as something of value (vs paper).  He is Mexican, owns his own business and saves 50% of what he makes.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:39 | Link to Comment Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

Looks like supply does not create its own demand...of labor, that is.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:10 | Link to Comment 11b40
11b40's picture

That is NOT what we were told!  I want a refund.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

All of a sudden I gots this funny kind of Japanese feeling.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:58 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"Domo Arigato, Mister Roboto"

Domo arigato, Mr. Roboto
Mata au hima de
Domo arigato, Mr. Roboto
Himitsu o shiri tai

You're wondering who I am (Secret secret, I've got a secret)
Machine or mannequin (Secret secret, I've got a secret)
With parts made in Japan (Secret secret, I've got a secret)
I am the modern man

I've got a secret I've been hiding under my skin
My heart is human, my blood is boiling, my brain IBM
So if you see me acting strangely, don't be surprised
I'm just a man who needed someone and somewhere to hide
To keep me alive, just keep me alive
Somewhere to hide to keep me alive

........

The problem's plain to see
Too much technology
Machines to save our lives
Machines de-humanize

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gbkhla8Ivlk

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:01 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Worst. Styx. Record. Ever.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:01 | Link to Comment LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

and that's saying something... we're talking triple crown of suck

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:10 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

A fifth of Crown Royal makes it sound better, for the full experience a fifth of warm Sake.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment William113
William113's picture

But Liz Goodwin's story on the front page of Yahoo/ABC says everything is PEACHES AND CREAM.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

You're a torn out page
From a best selling book
Your home girl's on the line
But your daddy's off the hook
Where do we go now?

Give those pious soldiers
Another lollipop
Cause we're on the good ship
Menage e trois
Peaches and Cream
You make a garbage man scream
Such a delicate thing

Keep your lamplight trimmed and burning
Keep your lamplight trimmed and burning...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i55TYUQsi9s

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:40 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Maybe she meant to write 'PIECE of CRAP"!

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:46 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Last NFP report?

Please, tell the truth as many times as you can.

How about a collage of all the realistic charts showing the collapse of career employment?

A cornucopia of truth in charts and graphs, no rose and brown BLS (BS) glasses allowed.

Hoist the mizenmast, load the cannon, snipers to the crows nest, sabers and muskets loaded, boarding ramps and cudgels at the ready, avast!

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:51 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

I think that the employment to population ratio and people NOT in labor force captures the collapse of career employment.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/05/04/a-very-european-jobs-recovery-u-s-labor-force-participation-falls-to-63-6-88-4m-not-in-labor-force-teenage-unemployment-rises-to-22-8/

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:48 | Link to Comment overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

gov mandated 20 hour work week what labor has wanted for years, well here it is, happy yet?

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:52 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Hope and Change.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:56 | Link to Comment Sauk Leader
Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

Obummer :(

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:48 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Opening up the FEMA camps ought to offset these losses.

Bullish... 

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:53 | Link to Comment sabra1
sabra1's picture

is free wi-fi included?

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:51 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

USO down 5% today 3% thurs....Obama reelection team has to get gas lower....soon....well played

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:53 | Link to Comment SDRII
SDRII's picture

Who said we weren;t turning Japanese:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freeter

 

 

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:53 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

P.S. this is the last post on today's abysmal NFP report. We promise.

Keep posting about it, plz....I need the laugh on a Friday morning. 

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:58 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Don't everyone line up at once to bid:

New York Fed Seeks Bids for CDO Holdings in Maiden Lane III

 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-04/new-york-fed-seeks-bids-for-cdo-holdings-in-maiden-lane-iii.html

 

 

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:09 | Link to Comment goforgin
goforgin's picture

Does it mean that the lower the taxes , the lower the official employment participation rate? I guess all the entrepreneurs are too busy using all the taxes they saved running up prices of assets rather than creating jobs .

Here is an idea: tax unearned income at 60% and reduce all the payroll taxes to zero for income earners who make less than $40k.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:10 | Link to Comment Jacque Itch
Jacque Itch's picture

"the average hourly earnings barely budged at $23.38 from $23.37 last month, and in fact declined"

And we have Asia getting it done at fitty cents an hour?  We be in trouble bitchezz.

 

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 12:26 | Link to Comment goforgin
goforgin's picture

That would mean that the average employee makes $47k. How about 27K, which is about $12/hr. I wonder where people like YOU get your facts from? The median household income is less than $50k. That's right, US is on the verge of becoming a third world country.

This means that after paying their mortgage, utilities, car payments and all sorts of fees, interest expense and taxes that a typical household is subject to, the average household should probably receive FOOD STAMPS.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:20 | Link to Comment tempo
tempo's picture

$1.25/hr is what Foxconn employees (maker of nearly all AAPL products) make. In the US we make 25 times that wage. So there can be no permanent job creation (ex Govt, medical, etc) until these wage rate merge. Also regulation and threat of being sued has to equalize. With the elite and pamper/protected union members against real change, deficits and lies is the only path forward.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 12:35 | Link to Comment 11b40
11b40's picture

Which we can do once we get rid of all social services and support, and we trim the defense budget dramatically to around the percentage of the Chinese.  We can say goodbye to all environmental, health, and safety protections, too.  Will you have melamine with that carton of milk?

I guess you are ready to simply surrender all of the remaining hopes and dreams of America's middle class and allow the Fascists to win.

How about this?  We just take all the proffit away from outsourcing and off-shoring?  If you want to call it protectionism, be my guest, but I call for fair trade - NOT free trade.  I lock my doors at night, I keep my fence closed, and my garage door shut....so I guess I just might be a 'protectionist".

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 13:23 | Link to Comment smb12321
smb12321's picture

Taking all profit from outsourcing and overseas should really make those companies want to remain a US company (lol).  Besides, what about all the foreign companies in the US?  It's not as if we were in a unique situation.  The problem with "surrendering the hopes and dreams of the middle class" is - if we don't cut social spending, defense, the massive outlay for environmental concerns (2% of GDP) and the growing welfare system (food stamps,subsidies, innumerable payments) then there will be nothing.  As folks have warned for years, we can have it all now (our position thus far) or take a steep cut and retain it for years.   But we can't continue on the same path. 

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 15:05 | Link to Comment 11b40
11b40's picture

Well, that's all fine and dandy, but we need to get real and elect some politicians that will man-up.

Our economy is the economic driver of the world....period.  We are almost 14 times bigger than China.  Want to sell your goods here?  Well, let me tell you the new rules.  There will be off-set tariffs for countries who have slave labor, and no environmental protections....dramatically reducing the incentive to shutter American factories.  Don't want to be an American company anymore?  Fine by me.  Don't let the door hit you in the ass as you exit.....but don't expect to have the same level playing field as the American companies you now must compete with when your goods arrive at the border.

Foreign companies in the U.S. are here because it makes sense for them to be here.  Why would that change?  Yes, there are some foreign companies who actually export from American facilities, but it is a very small percentage.  The vast majority of what they make is for domestic consumption.  Equalizing tariffs (fair trade) would provide even greater incentive for more to build here and create additional jobs.

For the America of our fathers to survive, there must be a middle class, and that means JOBS, JOBS, JOBS.  Whatever it takes to reverse the percentages of manufacturing jobs over FIRE jobs, we simple must do.  I mean really - which has more real value to society, a skilled machinest or bank officer?

If our leaders can't, or won't protect our jobs, we must get new leaders.  If that means a Populist uprising, then so be it if it can protect us from becoming a totally Fascist state.

This country has gone soft in both body and mind, having been fed mental pablum far too long.  Free trade, corporations are people, let's privatize everything, taxes are evil (but borrowing against our childrens future is fine), endles and optional wars on foreign countries, drugs, crime, etc...oh, and the jails are priviatized now, too -- growth industry!  Throw in a bloated defense/security industry that spends more than every other country on earth combined.  What a bunch of brain dead chickenshits we have become.

Thanks.  I needed that....now, back to work.  This has been an interesting day, but not productive enough!

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Well all the bad news is priced in now...

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:27 | Link to Comment leeholsen12
leeholsen12's picture

 

Can someone xplain this to me since it's in bold ?

"an epic drop of 812,000 in full time jobs which was the biggest since... March 2009! "

Using my handy-dandy windows calculator, that should be 812, not 812,000

i looked at the fed's monthly and it looks like we're losing or gaining 500 to 1000 full time jobs monthly, not 500,000.

 

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:40 | Link to Comment leeholsen12
leeholsen12's picture

 

ok, 

looks like i misread the chart. should have been around 114 million full time jobs.

judas, thats scary.

i envy my dad, who is retired and has the coin to carry him out.

anyone between 30 and 50 needs to save every nickel they make IMO as raises are going to be slim to none for decades and costs are just going to go up.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:34 | Link to Comment Alcoholic Nativ...
Alcoholic Native American's picture

Part time jobs are actually a good thing.  It's the kind of job I've been looking for.  I don't know about you guys but I need time to persue my hobbies and what not.   I demand leisure time, and if my potential employerer doesn't agree, that's tough shit. 

It's time for employees to start standing up to these thugs.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 12:17 | Link to Comment spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

Great coverage ZH. Now all we need is a little Kyle Bass to close the show. 

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 12:28 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

from latch-key kids to the new 'pup-tent stoop orphans' -- lost in the ghetto's with only an iPhone -- fixed at speed dial -- a predisposed destiny of hope and change -- whilst, only to brandish a tin cup of empathy to the myriad passers-by, casting but a silhouette shadow at high-noon?

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 23:16 | Link to Comment LetThemEatCake
LetThemEatCake's picture

These numbers are seasonally adjusted. Not adjusted, the number of jobs stayed mostly flat. For the previous month, the adjustment had been downwards, so in the last two month no jobs were created on an adjusted basis but 1.4million on a non-adjusted basis.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LNU02500000

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