UBS' Advice On What To Buy In Case Of Eurozone Breakup: "Precious Metals, Tinned Goods And Small Calibre Weapons"

Three months ago, Zero Hedge presented the first of many narratives that started the thread of explaining the "unmitigated disaster" that would ensue should the Euro break up, which in the words of authors Stephane Deo and Larry Hatheway, would leads to such mutually assured destruction outcomes as complete bank failure and/or civil war or far worse. Because if there is one thing the banks have learned in the aftermath of Hank Paulson, is that scaremongering when bonuses are at stake is the only to get taxpayer money to fund exorbitant lifestyles. Unfortunately since the first UBS report, despite the best intentions of the status quo, the Eurozone's plight has only gotten far, far worse, reaching a Lehman-like crescendo when the house of cards threatened to collapse if not for a last minute Fed rescue. However, as Deutsche Bank and every other bank knows well, that measure was merely a short-term fix.

Today, Larry Hataway has released yet another sequel to the original piece, focusing on this so very critical week for Europe, which as Olli Rehn said, must find a solution by Friday or see the EU "disintegrate", in which the vivid imagery, loud warnings and level of destruction are even greater than before. In other words, Europe has 4 more days, something which S&P tried it best to remind Europe of, as the alternative is "or else." And here comes UBS to remind everyone that anything but a "fix" to a system that was broken from the very beginning, would be a catastrophe, captured probably the best in Hatheway's recommendations of assets to be bought as a hedge to a Euro collapse: "I suppose there might be some assets worthy of consideration—precious metals, for example. But other metals would make wise investments, too. Among them tinned goods and small calibre weapons." But even that is nothing compared to the kicker: "Break-up runs the risk of becoming one wretched scenario. Sadly, however, it can’t be ruled out, just as it would have been improper to rule out the horrors of the first half of the 20th century before they happened." And there you have it: a reversion by Europe to the perfectly stable system from a decade ago, is now somehow supposed to result in World War. And with that the global banking cartel has official jumped the shark, just like the FT's latest rumor earlier today did the same by indicating that the well of European "bailout" ideas has officially run dry.

Here is how Hatheway frames the end of the world:

The unfolding Eurozone crisis is not something to be taken lightly. The consequences of policy action are material, not just for the 330-odd million residents of the Euro area, but assuredly for the world economy and financial system as well.

This week, Europe’s heads of state gather again to see if they can finally get on top of the problem. The challenges confronting the Eurozone are complex and defy easy solution. Sadly, that hasn’t prevented some observers from proposing some silly ideas. Indeed, it is distressing to see how many misconceived ‘remedies’ are put forward by seemingly reasonable people. In what follows we review some of the odder ones and explain why they don’t make sense.

Why a euro break up is the end of the world: Take 1 - base case

The Eurozone was flawed from the start. The wrong countries joined and the Euro area lacks the appropriate policy framework to deal with its imbalances, lack of growth, and internal inflexibility.

Correct.

So, the remedy must be to break it up, right?

Wrong.

The preferred outcome is to fix what is broken.

But before we go further, let’s make one point absolutely clear. Even if fixing the Eurozone is better (on any measure) than breaking it up, that does not imply that break-up can’t happen. Countries, like individuals, often make decisions they subsequently regret. When passion (populism or nationalism) dominates reason, stuff happens.

Back in September, my colleagues Paul Donovan and Stephane Deo and I outlined the costs of breaking up the Eurozone. The interested reader can refer to the relevant research for details (available on request). Suffice it to say that the combination of cascading cross-border defaults, collapsing banking systems, soaring risk premiums, and currency dislocations would result, according to our estimates, in losses approaching 20% of GDP for creditor countries and 40% of GDP for departing debtors.

On reflection this author, at least, feels the estimates are probably conservative—the true costs could well be higher. That’s because once Europe (and the world economy) finds itself in depression, policy probably couldn’t arrest the decline. Broken financial systems and ruined economies are the stuff of prolonged deflation or worse. And it is by now abundantly clear that even unconventional macro-policy cannot deliver results if the financial system is in tatters.

Our report received a lot of attention from clients and in the press. And to our knowledge, its findings have never really been disputed. So here’s the point. If most observers agree that a Eurozone breakup significantly increases the risk of widespread economic and financial mayhem, how can't be best? Reasonable people don’t play Russian roulette. So why are some economists suggesting that Europe should?

Why a euro break up is the end of the world: Take 2 - crank it up a notch

It’s only Greece, why worry?

Ok, the break-up crowd grudgingly admits. You’ve got a point—Italy can’t leave. But what about Greece? Surely it is so small its departure won’t matter?

And its economy is so broken, wouldn’t Greece benefit from leaving the Euro? Wrong again. First, Greece is unlikely to be better off outside the Eurozone than in it. Forced conversion of bank deposits and strict capital controls would be required to prevent massive capital flight in the event a ‘new drachma’ is introduced. While Greek government debt might be redenominated into ‘new drachma’, private sector debt owed to non-Greek financial institutions would remain liable in euros, dollars, Swiss francs or whatever the currency of the original obligation. With the ‘new drachma’ depreciating in the currency markets (why else issue it?), the Greek private sector would experience large and rolling defaults. That’s because after more than a decade of current account deficits, Greek residents owe the rest of the world a lot. Specifically, since the euro was introduced, Greece has racked up external liabilities (cumulative current account deficits) of nearly $300bn, just over 100% of its GDP.

So the Greek financial sector would collapse, alongside much of the nonfinancial sector. Credit would evaporate and recession (more like  depression) would result. But that’s not all. Given a very open economy to trade, drachma weakness would result in rising import price inflation, eroding domestic purchasing power (hence deepening the downturn) and undermining the hopedfor competitiveness stemming from nominal depreciation.

So the tally is depression, widespread private sector bankruptcy, a ruined financial sector, and surging inflation, offset by modest gains in competitiveness.

That’s not a terribly persuasive case for exit.

But the biggest reason why the ‘it’s only Greece’ narrative is naive and dangerous is that it almost certainly would not be ‘only Greece’. Once one country leaves the Eurozone, residents in other at-risk member countries would plausibly conclude their country might be next to go. Logic dictates they would send their wealth abroad, resulting in a run on their domestic banks, precipitating a collapse of their financial sectors and economies.

The ‘it’s only Greece’ crowd conveniently fails to consider the risks to the rest of the Eurozone.

Stuff—in this case, contagion—happens.

Why a euro break up is the end of the world: Take 3 - bring up the cheating spouse analogy: that will get their attention

I promise, really, I’ll only cheat once

Recently, another bad idea has made the rounds. How about a weekend exit, where a country (say, Greece) leaves the Euro area, devalues and rejoins, all by breakfast on Sunday, primed to compete against the mighty Germans.

It is hard to know where to begin with the instantaneous exit and re-entry ‘remedy’. Leave aside the legal and practical challenges involved (Can a country exit and rejoin without treaty change? Is it legal to re-denominate private sector assets?). The notion is fundamentally flawed on its own.

To be sure, the new lower real exchange rate would boost competitiveness. But what about borrowing costs? Undoubtedly, they will soar and remain high for a long time. That’s because creditors (who just suffered a currency haircut over the exit/re-entry weekend) have memories.

Unsustainable sovereign credit risk premiums would be replaced by unsustainable currency risk premiums. This ‘remedy’ is, after all, no more than a return to a fixed-but-adjustable exchange rate system with all the credibility problems it embeds.

And currency risk premiums would appear not only in the ‘weekend divorce’ country. Others in a similar predicament would lose credibility and suffer rising bond yields—once again contagion effects.

In essence, the ‘weekend divorce’ only works if the jilted partner (the creditor) is gullible enough to believe that the other partner will only ‘cheat’ once.

I don’t know about you, but…

Why a euro break up is the end of the world: Take 4 - time for some carpet bombing imagery "inception"

What if Napoleon had a B-52 at Waterloo?

The last of our weird reasoning cases is the idea that banks, companies and even countries can somehow prepare for Eurozone break-up. In recent weeks various stories have appeared in the press about foreign exchange brokers, multinational companies, banks, and even countries mobilizing teams to figure out how to deal with new currencies, recalibrate cross-border accounting and invoicing systems,or estimate the costs and benefits(?) of break-up.

Talk about fantasy. That’s like asking Wellington to stress test his army against a scenario where Napoleon has a B-52 at Waterloo. You don’t re-position the troops—you retreat as quickly as possible across the channel, if not across the Atlantic.

Of course, we get it, contingency planning is prudent. But just what contingency are we planning for? In break-up new currencies will be introduced. But will they trade freely? Probably not. As we noted in our original piece on the costs of break-up, it is highly probable that capital controls would accompany exit. Spot, forward, futures, swaps, options and other currency derivative contracts might not even materialize, or perhaps only for limited current account transactions.

Companies preparing plans on how they might manage multi-currency cash flows in a post-Eurozone world might be advised instead to pay attention to the risk of not getting paid at all, never mind in which currency. Counterparty risk— bank-to-bank and company-to-company—would soar as defaults mount.

Bank risk management teams would be similarly advised not to ask how far new currencies might depreciate or how high risk premiums might rise, but whether the bank would survive a collapse of the payments system, a run on deposits, and widespread default on assets.

Why a euro break up is the end of the world: Take 5, epilogue, or how "you damn dirty apes blew it all to hell"... and by it we mean our bonuses

Simply put, linear thinking doesn’t work in a non-linear world. And break-up is likely to produce a very non-linear set of outcomes.

Which brings me, lastly, to the question I sometimes get about what is the ‘right’ asset allocation in the event of break-up.

I suppose there might be some assets worthy of consideration—precious metals, for example. But other metals would make wise investments, too. Among them tinned goods and small calibre weapons.

Break-up runs the risk of becoming one wretched scenario. Sadly, however, it can’t be ruled out, just as it would have been improper to rule out the horrors of the first half of the 20th century before they happened.

But it is very hard to see break-up as a solution. Let’s hope Europe’s politicians and policymakers agree and take action this week to fix what is broken before itall really breaks up.

At this point we have to say that we find it supremely ironic that a man warning against the futility of linear forecasts does just that for 4 pages, and all based on the flawed premise that returning the system that actually worked, would be tantamount to the apocalypse. Yet as Hatheway says, let's hope that "Europe's politicians agree"... although agree with what is not quite clear - to fund the existence of an obvious fiscal and monetary experimental failure at the expense of trillions more in diluted or outright confiscated funds, just so the continent's (and world's) bankers, who outside of writing trite essays have no utility in the real world, get another massive outlier of a bonus? That actually sounds about right.

As for us, we will bet on the fact that as in every historical event in the past 20 centuries, the powder keg that is Europe, with its tens of religions, hundreds of mutually exclusive cultures, and millennia of hatred, almost without fail took the decision that led to massive game theory fail, and an outcome that resulted in bloodshed. Which is why the only take home message for us here is to do precisely what Hatheway warns to do as a euro breakup Plan Z: buy gold, spam and guns.

Everything else we leave to the only market makers left in town - the world's central banks.

Comments

[Normalcy Bias]

Lock 'n' load bitchez!

[Robot Traders Mom]

It is absolutely fucking crazy that the US is on the verge of a third world collapse unlike the world has ever seen, yet so many people have no clue..

Like I've said before, I will have zero sympathy for the unprepared. You have to be a complete imbecile to have not seen this coming.

[TheFourthStooge-ing]

+1

Mother knows best.

[TruthInSunshine]

SCARE TACTICS, BITCHEZ!

I present Exhibit....ummm, what number or letter am I up to now?....

I can't keep track - I present Exhibit XXXVVIII as to why Zero Hedge is representative of the awakening:

At this point we have to say that we find it supremely ironic that a man warning against the futility of linear forecasts does just that for 4 pages, and all based on the flawed premise that returning the system that actually worked, would be tantamount to the apocalypse. Yet as Hatheway says, let's hope that "Europe's politicians agree"... although agree with what is not quite clear - to fund the existence of an obvious fiscal and monetary experimental failure at the expense of trillions more in diluted or outright confiscated funds, just so the continent's (and world's) bankers, who outside of writing trite essays have no utility in the real world, get another massive outlier of a bonus? That actually sounds about right.

The Eurocrats & Banksters in Europium & Amerika had better hire the services of Hank 'Tanks In The Streets Within 3.75 Hours & Martial Law/I Have Hundreds Of Millions In Goldman Stock, Bitchez' Paulson to really scare the bejeezus out of the sheeple.

All your 401(k)s, taxes, assets, and those of your children and grandchildren are belong to us, or we'll stab ourselves with this popsicle stick, bitchez. We mean it!

Are you scared! ARE YOU SCARED?!!

***(You shouldn't be. You're being defrauded. The fractional reserve banksters such as The Bernank and their masters set you up).

[Deo vindice]

In times like these. . .

"Keep your faith in God ... and keep your powder dry"

[Oliver Cromwell]

[TruthInSunshine]

Go Icelandic and never, ever look back, no matter what the private banksters, central banksters or their masters, or the likes of Paul 'Prepare For The Martian Invasion' Krugman and his ilk claim.

Iceland; soon to be the only nation that is sovereign and has a AAA+ Credit Rating.

Once you go Icelandic, you never go Bernank.

[Doña K]

The MSM is silent on this. We need a TV documentary. 60 minutes has done some work that it's against the grain before. It will be an enlightment to many.

We know you read these pages 60 minutes. Do it

[Oh regional Indian]

Never. Cannot, will not. The fifth estate is too bought and sold to do any real damage. or they should have been all over the FED story decades ago, when there were a few real journalists.

What I get from all this head-line screeching is that moves are being telegraphed. Lot's of ways of saying I told you so, even if I did not tell you so. 

Who will reach in and un-tie the knot that makes humans act so irrationally? If I say I can, all I get is brickbats. :-)

Let us see....

ORI

/the-plan/

[Calmyourself]

Agreed the fifth estate abandoned their role of afflicting the powerful about 30 years ago.  They are the primary reason so many will be left behind by robotraders Mom..  They have deliberately, methodically through various means dumbed down and obfuscated the truth about politics, proepr governance, the Constitution, debt, Federal Reserve you name it.  They are just as if not more liable than the Banker/Political class in fact I would call them one leg of a tripod..

[Oh regional Indian]

Indeed Calm, I found this fascinating tid-bit, from 1876 (or thereabouts). Mind-blowing.

/meet-the-press/

ORI

[redpill]

Small?  I'll stick with large caliber weapons, thank you.

[NewThor]

I like to mix my styles, tactics, schools and patterns. Oh, and but of course! CAL I BreZ BITCHEZ!

[macholatte]

  Rules of Combat 

USMC

1. Bring a weapon. Preferably, bring at least two. Bring all of your friends who have weapons. Bring their friends who have weapons.
2. Anything worth shooting is worth shooting twice. Ammo is cheap. Life is expensive.
3. Only hits count. Close doesn't count. The only thing worse than a miss is a slow miss.
4. If your shooting stance is good, you're probably not moving fast enough, nor using cover correctly.
5. Move away from your attacker. Distance is your friend. (Lateral and diagonal movement are preferred.)
6. If you can choose what to bring to a gunfight, bring a big weaponand a friend with a big weapon.
7. In ten years nobody will remember the details of caliber, stance, or tactics. They will only remember who lived and who didn't.
8. If you are not shooting, you should be communicating, reloading, and running.
9. Accuracy is relative: most combat shooting is more dependent on "pucker factor" than the inherent accuracy of the weapon.
10. Use a weaponthat works EVERY TIME. "All skill is in vain when an Angel pisses in the flintlock of your musket."
11. Someday someone may kill you with your own weapon, but they should have to beat you to death with it because it is empty.
12. In combat, there are no rules, always cheat; always win. The only unfair fight is the one you lose.
13. Have a plan.
14. Have a back-up plan, because the first one won't work.
15. Use cover or concealment as much as possible. The visible target should be in FRONT of YOUR weapon.
16. Flank your adversary when possible. Protect yours.
17. Don't drop your guard.
18. Always tactical load and threat scan 360 degrees.
19. Watch their hands. Hands kill. (In God we trust. Everyone else, keep your hands where I can see them).
20. Decide to be aggressive ENOUGH, quickly ENOUGH.
21. The faster you finish the fight, the less shot you will get.
22. Be courteous to everyone, friendly to no one.
23. Be polite. Be professional. But have a plan to kill everyone you meet.
24. Your number one Option for Personal Security is a lifelong commitment to avoidance, deterrence, and de-escalation.
25. Do not attend a gunfight with a handgun, the caliber of which does not start with a ".4."

Army

1. See USMC Rules for combat
2. Add 60 to 90 days
3. Hope the Marines already destroyed all meaningful resistance

Navy

1. Spend three weeks getting somewhere
2. Adopt an aggressive offshore posture
3. Send in the Marines
4. Drink Coffee
5. Bring back the Marines

Air Force

1. Kiss the spouse good-bye
2. Drive to the flight line
3. Fly to target area, drop bombs, fly back.
4. Pop in at the club for a couple with the guys
5. Go home, BBQ some burgers and drink some more beer

[johnQpublic]

outstanding

[I am more equal...]

As a former SAC intel puke I loved the Marines but I love BBQ more.

[Eeyores Enigma]

The smartest guy in the room... is the guy who draws first.

[CynicLaureate]

Not necessarily...

The smartest guy in the room is the guy who shoots last.

[Mauibrad]

http://oathkeepers.org/oath/2011/12/08/oath-keepers-alert-federal-agents-demand-customer-lists-from-mormon-food-storage-facility/ 

Dec. 8, 2011

Oath Keepers Alert:  Federal Agents Try To Demand Customer Lists From Mormon Food Storage Facility

Oath Keepers has learned that federal agents recently visited a Later Day Saints (Mormon) Church food storage cannery in Tennessee, demanding customer lists, wanting to know the identity of Americans who are purchasing food storage from the Mormons...

[akak]

Cannot connect to link:

"Server not found
     
Firefox can't find the server at www.oathkeepers.org."

[nugjuice]

Semper Fi bitchez. Oorah!

[camaro68ss]

is this fucking real!!!!

[calltoaccount]

True-- but they're the Fourth Estate.

Où est le Quatrième Pouvoir? Is the truth so unspeakable?

http://calltoaccount.wordpress.com/2007/12/

[Calmyourself]

Ha, when your right your right and your right..

[Oh regional Indian]

You are correct call to account and I mixed up fifth column and 4th estate. Thanks.

ORI

[Calmyourself]

He is right, but in all honesty the press has become a fifth column.  One leg of the triad, Government, Bankers, Press..

[Freddie]

All of TV and the media are shit and they love the islamic.

Beans, bullets, Bibles and bullion.  

[CrockettAlmanac.com]

I think you've had more than enough beans already.

[j0nx]

They love the anything that undermines the cultural and societal unity that Americans used to enjoy but no longer do. I've been saying for 20 years that multi-culturalism will doom this country and it looks as if I will be proven right very soon. As usual.

[Don Birnam]

The MSM is silent on this because the MSM is duplicitous in it.

[bernorange]

Go Icelandic + HR 1098.

[4horse]

cromwell . . .

while handing irish back to a prehistory worse than helvetii-- To Hell Or Connaught! --little oliver let in such venetians, Bankers, as would metastasize into the handing over of the whole empire, UK from then and thereafter being The City Of London

no need for burke's gesunkeines kulturgut ever since: if you wanna know WHAT'S UP

_{neither british nor dutch east indies, Theirs
revenuestream: taxation. intolerable acts
but, otherwise, like what's a colony for . . .
                     but fucking
india.australia.canada.british east &/or
south africa. gold. diamonds. jewels, Theirs
                      America
spoils of the-english-speaking world, Theirs
the spanish main, their own eldorado
The Golden Caribbean, first&ever since
sugarcane. slavery. molasses. rrrum, Theirs
distilleries.whisky.transport.barrels.bales
of cotton.tabacco.textiles.gin.machinery
along with whatever-floats-their-boats.
                The Triangle Trade
shirts, skirts and clothes. all slaves, Theirs
of their fashion:Branding:cottonpickin
stitching of nycityslickers to levi's
it pays to advertise, coffee,tea or media
merchandising.monetizing.mercantilising,
                    Everything
from high-finance to fashiontrends,  Theirs
tradewinds. sailing to shipping to cargo
noteholders. Insurance. lloyds of london
banking. banking. banking, the first and
                  Only Investment
money, money, money. whether that once
old, slow, boat to Opium, or now again
NWO: W v E :no-Tempest-in-a-Teapot
taking a slowboat to China. China. China
as wilbur once said. not that mr.ed
U.macation, which they got all the very
best $ can buy-- INTEL --so no alibi
sez 4horse, when, after digging, and
                                 digging, and
                                 digging, they've
dug a hole so goddamn deep
they ain't nobody comin out the other side of}

_.

                                                                                                   LOOK DOWN

_.

_{the other side                      where the irish,
from longtimeago              their guinea PIIGS
and own martial nursery, disposable, were
the 1st 3rd world country ever practiced upon
micks, spicks, niggers and chinks.  Theirs}

                     cromwell

gotta start somewhere. and practice-makes-perfect
so . . . no sweat. yeh. keep yer powdered wig dry

[Turd Ferguson]

Holy shit!

I can't believe that its come to this. From a major TBTF, sell-side house. Amazing! I'm dumbfounded.

[fonestar]

And hey Turd, these guys still think that they are going to stroll down to the coin shop when SHTF and buy up some eagles!  Just wait until they find out nobody is selling at any price and they missed the boat, haha!

[Manthong]

He can't be that apprehensive..

Apparently he doesn't see the need for suppressive fire because he didn't call for large caliber weapons.

[UGrev]

a .223 will still make a void in your skull. But that's not the point I think he was trying to make. There's a lot more small cal ammo floating around than large cal. :D

[DaBernank]

Add a motorcycle to the list.

[Real Money Wins]

Large caliber is for longer ranges. You need smaller calibers for close quarter fighting, easier to handle and faster reloads. Unless you are using a tactical shotgun which is larger caliber for close quarter.

Bang bang Kiss Kiss

[foxenburg]

For close quater stuff, in the light or in the dark, nothing comes close to a pump action 12 gauge. Second best is a large calibre "natural pointer" such as a Colt .45 SAA.

[Big Slick]

"Add a motorcycle to the list."

Check out the Kawasaki KLR as a good SHTF bike - Enduro-style (i.e. both road and off-road friendly) will suit the expected carnage... that is: travel on roads for the most part, then off-road when the roads are too clogged with caracsses of burning SUV previously owned by gun rights advocates.  ("previously" can qualify either 'owned' OR 'gun rights advocates')

The Army makes a modified diesel version of the KLR with a 9 gallon tank and a 900 mile range.  Ride of choce for Iraqi dessert black ops.  BUT I don't think civilians can get 'em.

Ammoman.com has great pricess on the ultimate PM... Pb.  Free shipping too.  Get it now.

[flattrader]

Yes.  Get a dual. And stash some cache along Plan A, B, C routes.

I love how people here thing they're "safe" because they live in the country.

There are a scant few currently inhabited places in the US that aren't 25 mi. from a road.

Those roads can be a liability...or an asset.

[Citxmech]

I think when he says "small caliber weapons" he doesn't mean .22s, he means things one person can carry as opposed to crew fired weapons and things on tripods, wheels, etc.

[Conor]

The issue is liquidity.

More people have .22, 9 mm., 5.56, 12 gauge. 30-30, .308, etc.   These people will barter food and services for ammunition as ammo becomes a medium of exchange.

[dumbfounded]

Me too !

[High Plains Drifter]

seal team 6 went in and killed osama. i feel safe now. 

[UP Forester]

That's why Congress is declaring the U.S. as a battlefield, and everyone in it as combatants.

Everyone feels safe.  Emmanuel Goldstein may actually be hiding in the reflection in your mirror, right now.

[SRSrocco]

SILVER-GOLD & COMMODITIES EXTREMELY UNDERVALUED

There is still a great deal of analysts talking and writing about DEFLATION.  For one thing, the central banks will not allow their client's (THE RICH) assets to deflate.  These clients do not have to worry about $5-8 dollar gas or high food prices... they worry about loss of net worth.

That being said, its the DEFLATION in goods-commodities and services that will not occur.  Why?  Several reasons:

1) The US Dollar has been propped up by the US Treasuries purchased by the Fed which are also propped up by $100's of trillions worth of Interest Rate Swaps.  These Interest Rate Swaps are just as valuable as MBS, CMBS or CDS.

2) The actual large percentage of the M3 money supply did not contract until 2009 and did not stop until 2010.  At this time the price of silver increased 100%.  Furthermore, the M3 money supply was less on DEC 31, 2010 than it was in NOV 2008... and silver hit $30 oz.  There is no rhyme or reason for this so called DEFLATION.  It's pure BOLLOCKS

3) The Derivative market has siphoned trillions of investor dollars away from REAL PHYSICAL ASSETS and into increasingly worthless financial products.  In doing so, it has severly mispriced the real value of gold-silver and commodites.

Silver is getting ready to head much higher.  I would imagine we will see it take out its old high within the next 2-3 months.

[fonestar]

Agreed.  The thought that some still are worried about deflation just makes me wonder which planet they came from exactly.  As strong as metals have been they haven't kept up with M2 growth and inflation.  Add a smack of panic buying on top of the basics and I got my winning horse picked.

[silverbullion]

I absolutely agree. They are screaming deflation, but there can be no deflation in the true sense of the word (both a contraction of economic activity and declining prices) while they are expanding the fiat money supply (counterfeit/fake money supply). Hyperinflation is coming which will see a collapse of all fiat currencies and many governments. At first they will call it "economic growth" to give a false sense of achievement and then shortly afterwards chaos will erupt. Millions upon millions are waiting for a fake Judeo Jesus to come and save them, totally unprepared in so many regards, while the real Jesus and His followers will be prepared. Very few people know it, but America was built on true Christian principles which are the exact opposite of the false Judeo Christianity that is preached today and which is used as a vehicle to destroy us.

[CrockettAlmanac.com]

Most of what you call true Christian values I would consider to be just good, common sense. But I hear what you're saying.

Signed,

An atheistic and yet morally cognizant friend.

[TheFourthStooge-ing]

+1

I think you, or anyone trying to live a moral life, regardless of faith or lack thereof, would enjoy the Jefferson Bible, not only as a book, but as a concept as well. It is the essence of the morals of Jesus of Nazareth; consequently, it is the part of the new testament most ignored by religious extremists.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jefferson_bible

[Obadiah]

spot on silverbullion

The false christ will come first and decieve many in "fixing" this bs, he will be the savior ( yeah right).  The True Christ comes at the 7th trump not the 6th. 

How the heck could the fake christ fool people if they are already gone??  Unfortunately this is the twisted form of the Word that is taught in 95% of all churches.

The Truth is out there and that all we need.  Truth!

[WhiteNight123129]

And so what, what if we are trapped in deflation? Devaluation would be in order, I would not mind having a devaluation 1932 style with your Gold getting boosted from 20 USD to 35 actually, then buy frantically stocks trading at 5 times earnings. When there is disorderly debt destruction, you can´t lose on Gold (at least at the current price). The only way you lose if the indebted nations of the world 62% of world GDP can find export markets on Mars or if massive new super cheap energy is found in the next 3-5 years.

[VyseLegendaire]

Ladies and gents, the wheels have come off the bus.

[Oh regional Indian]

Cue Neo/Bullock to the rescue.

ORI

[j0nx]

Oh if I only had a dollar for every time I have read that on a forum...

The wheels will come off at a time when you least expect it.

[Cheyenne]

I'm inclined to agree.

Think about MF Global. Respected casino players who had shitloads of chips vaporize in the casino's safe, which isn't free, are being told they might get 2/3 of their stake back.

A couple days later, casino management meets and passes a custodial rule that the pit poss who's missing was so dead-set against.

Yeah, it's fair to say the gloves are off and that you'd better figure out a life on your own.

[akak]

Robot Traders Mom said:

You have to be a complete imbecile to have not seen this coming.

Or your son.

[Teamtc321]

I thought Robo was a chick>......geeze. Ruined the whole titty pic for me aaaaaaaaaaaaaa. lol. 

[akak]

.

Every ZHoo down in ZHooville liked the free market a lot,
but Robot, who lived just north of ZHooville - did not.
Robot hated integrity, and transparency --- no teasin'.
Now, please don't ask why; no one quite knows the reason.
It could be, perhaps, that his stops were too tight.
Or it could be that his commodity funds were too light.
But I think that the most likely reason of all...
may have been that his gold stash was two sizes too small.

[CrockettAlmanac.com]

Dr. ZHeuss?

[akak]

Dr. ZHivago

(Who was, as you know, a poet as well as a doctor.)

[1000pips]

There, there everybody--everybody calm down. No one is going to have a revolution or anarchy. Everything is fine; the Euro will be here for hundreds of years. Gold wil never be a currency, it is nice for watches and jewelry, that is all-oh, and coin collecting.
Don't let this propaganda ruin your Christmas with your family.
2012 will be a huge Bull market rally. Trade accordingly.

[UP Forester]

Since the Anti-Tilson fund did so nicely, you want to be the new anti-fund?

[Ghordius]

now I'm not sure if your's is irony - while I do believe that the EUR will stay for a while, I also believe we'll see some zeros added on the bills, as on the USD bills, so don't mind me if I prefer to have some gold...

[WhiteNight123129]

Someone has been socializing too much with MDB.

[SnobGobbler]

awwww, see they warned us... they seem to have prepped slightly deeper underground.

[MFL8240]

Most people are not as sophisticated as you and I and they go to work, take care of the kids and trust that their government will be truthful with them.  We were all taught to believe that people were by and large good and while not perfect, most would like to believe that companies especially banks would be safe and sound, honest and run with integrity.  In the past 10 years, this has all changed with greed the overriding theme and illegal actions gone unpunished.  Politicians once honorable are now liars and thieves and yet many good and honest people have not adapted.  So, while I tend to agree with you on the state of affairs in the US economy, it’s better to continue to reinforce the need for people to shelter themselves and finances than suggest they are clueless and have no sympathy for them.  Better to help them change by sending articles that help them make some sound choices before this mountain blows.

[Chuck Walla]

 I will have zero sympathy for the unprepared. You have to be a complete imbecile to have not seen this coming.

Hell-OOOOO, Occupy!!!!   Romney and Obama Voters, Too!

[WhiteNight123129]

Pff, No big deal, collapses happen all the time, look at the French revolution and Weimar, it will pass, their might some really bad outcome but so what? I guess we have to be prepared to profit from it and be fatalists... Humanity runs in circle and repeat the same mistakes again and again and again and again and again and again.... until we are replaced by computers.... Alea jacta est!

[MonsterBox]

"As a dog returns to his vomit, so a fool returns to his folly"  -Proverbs 26.11

apparently, we've been "repeating" for quite a while.

as a species, we deserve what we get.

[The Big Ching-aso]

This Europacalypse Not Yet Now suspense is killing me.   Oops.   Maybe that was the wrong word to use.

[ACP]

Metalocalypse is more like it.

Have some now, same some for later.

[stacking12321]

that's not very brutal at all.

i'd rather cut off my ding dong than admit that booze isn't food!

[TheFourthStooge-ing]

Add Larry's name to the waiting list for the gallows.

"Do you see what happens, Larry? This is what happens when you fuck all of humanity in the ass!"

[BoNeSxxx]

"And with that the global banking cartel has officially (sic) jumped the shark" TD, 12/06/11

When the SHTF, I am going to re-post that as a the most elegant and seminal summation of the pre-EZ breakup.

Just brilliant.

[PulauHantu29]

If you have the weapon why do you need tinned food or PMs? They will be easy enough to get.

[CrockettAlmanac.com]

Because self defense is morally acceptable but theft and murder are not?

[Peter K]

In the modern world, this old Christian=Judeo sense of right and wrong is so.... passse;)

[Chuck Walla]

Because self defense is morally acceptable but theft and murder are not?

Then you aren't really, really hungry yet!

[TheFourthStooge-ing]

You haven't thought this through very carefully, have you?

If you have the weapon why do you need tinned food or PMs? They will be easy enough to get.

...said the man with a post-collapse life expectancy of less than a month.

[Freddie]

FMJ all you AH's.

[Ghordius]

blablabla

"the powder keg that is Europe, with its tens of religions, hundreds of mutually exclusive cultures, and millennia of hatred, almost without fail took the decision that led to massive game theory fail, and an outcome that resulted in bloodshed"

Sometimes words say more about (the mindframe of) the writer then the object(s) of the words.

In this case, the writer is clearly American (Texan, to be exact) and presents a specific cultural bias - based on individualism (good old American value somewhat lacking in Europe) and Action! (things that go wham! are also very popular).

At the end, this meme that the EZ "is destined to fail" is based on this assumption that the French, the Germans and the Italians are never going to build shared policies for longer than thirty years. You just forget that they are not Yankees or Brits and that they have more sense of mutual solidarity, built in their core values and beliefs.

This is my biggest beef with the Libertarians - this complete denial of any (cultural) shared sense of mutual solidarity. Explain Nations without, if you can.

[j0nx]

You're kidding right? GL living in your fantasy land of shared unity in muli-cultural environments. Let me know how that works out for you sparky. My guess is that we never hear from you again when it comes time to test out your belief.

[Ghordius]

multicultural in the sense that there are Saxons and Dutch and Bavarians and Lombards and Hanoverans and Tyroleans and Rhinelanders and Austrians and Sicilians and Ligurians, each more or less in their ancestral lands?

or the new meaning of multicultural?

you seem to forget that a big part of the EZ is composed out of relatively young countries/nations/states, including Germany and Italy, younger than the USA

[ffart]

If there's one thing we can count on it's that the commies in euroland will not learn from their mistakes and promptly roll out EZ 2.0 as soon as this one fails. Hopefully the nukes only fall on Brussels.

[rsi1]

When is UBS writing advice on the following?

How to blow up a bank and require a bailout

How to have a rogue trader burn $2bn without noticing

How to sell out to US tax authorities

Everyone is so pessimistic I am starting to become very optimistic about the future of the Euro.

[Pythaes]

They are scared about what happens to CHF....gonna be messy anyway you cut it.

[jonan]

sooo, when we gonna start a zerohedge militia?

que blackhelicopters above my house...

[Mauibrad]

Guns, grub, and gold, bitchez.

[King_of_simpletons]

So how does one go about procuring small caliber weapons ? I am a newbie when it comes to violent material.

[Slartebartfast]

Start with a pistol.  Get training along with the weapon.  Practice, practice, practice.

[YBNguy]

Invest in a Bow and Arrows too.

You can reuse the arrows and its silent when you hunt/protect yourself.

[TheFourthStooge-ing]

Don't forget a good length of strong rope. You never know when you might run into a banker.

[SheepleLOVEched...]

this is terrible advice...........this is the 21st century, do you think your adversaries arent going to have superior weapons? buy silencer if you want silent firepower

[UP Forester]

Worked for the VC, mujahadin, American revolutionaries, etc.  Look up "asymmetric warfare" and figure out who wins in molotov cocktail vs main battle tank.

[YBNguy]

And what happens when you run out of bullets fucknut...

[SnobGobbler]

bullets are for bipeds, not M1-A

[UP Forester]

And, cue the Finnish invention, the Molotov Cocktail....

[Chuck Walla]

And what happens when you run out of bullets fucknut...

Its called "hand-loading", the re-loading of spent ammunition casings.  Get you some brass, buy or cast your bullets, some primers and powder(I'm partial to Tite-Group & Bullseye).  Presses are widely available, roll your own. Hornaday can provide you some superb hollow points.

[jonan]

you change magazines, or pull out your secondary??? a lot of shit would have to splatter for me to go through my personal stash of 5.56, 9mm, 40cal and 22...

[Heyoka Bianco]

Silencers don't really "silence". This ain't Hollywood.

And in case you laboring under another Hollywood delusion, a small caliber, high velocity round to the shoulder will fuck you up for the duration.

[Peter K]

The High Velocity is key:)

[Mr. Lucky]

Is a 12 gauge small calibre?

[TheFourthStooge-ing]

If you were using #4 buckshot then, technically, I suppose it would be.

[HoofHearted]

Go down to the gun shop, pick out your favorite weapons, hand them a driver license so they can see that you're not a criminal, hand them a credit card or some fiat and walk away like that. Of course that is if you're in the US. In Europe...well, it involves going to Turkey mostly...

[YBNguy]

Sorry UBS, don't need your advice as Im ahead of this curve by a mile.

Id add long arms to that too, gotta love my Bushie ;)

MY advice. Forget everything but the guns and ammo. Because as Mao said: All ... power comes from the barrel of a gun.

And with that power one can acquire everything else lololol

[sof_hannibal]

all those AKs are readily avalaible on the black market. I would suggest a bow, as what are you gonna do when you run out of bullets? Tin goods? ok, but don't forget water purification tablets.

[UP Forester]

I'm betting once the UN gets out of "peacekeeping" in Bosnia, you'll be able to get whatever you want for dirt cheap.

[pine_marten]

One would most likely run out of luck before running out of ammo. Keep out of harms way and let the foolish devour themselves.

[zorba THE GREEK]

We sure got a lot of guns here in the good old U.S. of A. TPTB better hide in a drainage pipe somewhere

like Sadam when TSHTF because a lot of rednecks will be hunting them down like the vermin they are.

[economics1996]

Red necks will be hitting the ghettos.

[Clay Hill]

No. They'll actually be coming to us.

Not to worry, they make good fertilizer if ya slice'm thin.

[LFMayor]

 I fully agree with your migration theory, but fertilizer nothing.  Wendigo brand smoked meats, brother.   We'll barter for ammo, liquour or Au/Ag.

[Clay Hill]

I am a loving family man.

I would not expect my children to eat meat from animals that weren't clean.

Either compost'em or feed'em up on corn for a month first.

[LFMayor]

LOL, 'purge em, like a raccoon or a mangrove crab? (I've done both, they're delicious).   Solid advice,  I expect you're going to do real good in the future, man!

[Chuck Walla]

Bud's Gunshop, Baby. Online shopping and great prices. Find you a local FFL to do the transfer and you is armed and dangerous, Homes.

[BandGap]

Where do you live? Getting a gun is much easier in some parts of the country than others.

Get a .357 revolver, it also fires cheaper .38 loads but the .357 has great stopping power. Get a decent 12 or 20 gage Remington or Mossberg shotgun.  00 shot works great but #2 or BB shot is almost as good and cheaper.  I have low recoil rounds (each holding nine, .38 caliber ball shot) which are nice up close. Get a long rifle, I'd go with a .223 as the smallest and a .303 as the biggest. The smaller long guns have cheaper ammo, higher velocity but lack some stopping power. 

Do it legally and get to know your gun(s). Practice makes perfect. Find some like minded people, too.  Always good to have friends.

[rocketroj]

Head south near the border with Mexico and sign up the the Gov't Fast and Furious Gun Program.  May have to lie about your profession on the application.  For example if you are a Contract Programmer just shorten it to Contractor.  Implying you plan to take them into Mexico will get you on the expedited list.   

[Deo vindice]

If you live in Canada, getting hold of a gun is a lot harder.  Probably easiest is to get a friend in the USA to buy one for you as a 'gift'.

Of course you have to get it back across the border. . .

[Real Money Wins]

Check with your local sporting goods store, or Cabelas or Gander Mountain. When all else fails go to Guns America Online or Cheaper Than Dirt. But do it now Black Friday weapons sales were up 37% over last year and those semi autos are going fast. And you will also need a couple thousand rounds of ammo to go with them. And if your really feeling adventurous get reloading equipment for you calibers.

Bang Bang Kiss Kiss

[delacroix]

http://www.cheaperthandirt.com/2MAR795-1.html

[Chuck Walla]

http://www.budsgunshop.com/catalog/index.php

[jonan]

firearms are not violence, violence is the use of force to take from others that which is an extension of themselves...ie property...

firearms are freedom and liberty, please refer to them as such =P

lock and load bitchez...

[HoofHearted]

I'd hold Europe together just so I don't have to eat Spam. Luckily I've got the chickens that will keep me from having to do that. The other two items get checkmarks at our household...

[RobD]

What is wrong with Spam? Has all the major food groups in it, fat, dead pig and salt. Dah!

[Ecoman11]

Looking at UK Imports, we can see where the rich are putting their money http://i40.tinypic.com/29fuzo5.png

[ACP]

Small caliber? What planet is this guy on?

Edit: Spam is too expensive now. There are cheaper and more nutritious options.

[UP Forester]

I'm thinking .45-70 is small caliber, 50 BMG begins large caliber.

[TheFourthStooge-ing]

For small caliber, .45-70 is still an impressive chunk of lead. Who needs to penetrate ballistic armor when you can just push it through the other side of your target's torso?

[MBOB]

http://www.barrett.net/

[Spigot]

"No body move, or the dog gets it!"

[holdbuysell]

These chumps have cried 'wolf' so many times, I'm not sure what to believe regarding Friday being the 'this is it' day.

Regardless, I'll be prepared...by breaking out the popcorn ahead of time.

[wisefool]

Agreed. Timmy brought his shinebox this time and they are letting him sit at the grown ups table.

[1835jackson]

guns, spam, gold and do not forget location! Come to Tasmania! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYiHP5_bgrI

[DaveyJones]

build close community networks that protect, produce, and substitute

[j0nx]

GL with that in population centers. Hope you speak Spanish, Swahili, Arabic, Mandarin, Farsi or any of 100 other languages because if you don't and aren't knowledgeable in every one of those cultures then you will be an outsider and a target. Go ahead and file this under racist rant #101 if you want but don't say you weren't warned. Without cultural and societal commonality you have exactly DICK when SHTF and liberals have seen fit over the past 20 years to take the one thing away from us that could save this country from imploding when things go south.

[zorba THE GREEK]

For us at ZH, that's old advice.

[Spigot]

http://pajamasmedia.com/eddriscoll/files/2011/01/national-lampoon-73.jpg

[JPM Hater001]

For the record I read the whole thing and I only have one question...

Does this mean my omelet will not come with a baguette?

[j0nx]

*virtual crickets*

[Midwest Prepper]

As Chris Martenson said, the next 10 years will be unlike any in history for the US.

Food Riots in America in 2012

[tekhneek]

Squidoo? Really dude? Pretty sure you encoded those "non-affiliate" URLs to go to your affiliate site so you could rake in commission from commission junction/clickbank.

Get the hell out of here Wikipedia Jr.

[tekhneek]

http://www.rickperry.com (currently redirecting to http://www.ronpaul2012.com... LOL. Damn cyber terrorists.)

[Captain Benny]

Hell must have frozen over.  Rick Perry is endorsing Ron Paul... Maybe Perry decided he really does agree with Ron Paul to End the Fed...  Another flip flopping fool.

Ron Paul - The only guy that hasn't flip flopped in 30 years.

[Deo vindice]

Really? If Ron Paul's popularity goes up much at all, he better have some serious personal protection. He represents everything that TPTB are against: stuff like, oh, freedom for instance.

[DollarMenu]

Speaking of Dr. Paul,

here is his new TV spot:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=MXCZVmQ74OA

Gave  me a good grin.

[CrockettAlmanac.com]

Looks like RickPerry.com got transferred to new owners in 2010 or 2011 rather than hacked. Perry's official site is RickPerry.org

http://wayback.archive.org/web/20110815000000*/http://rickperry.com

[oc]

check, check, and check.

[knukles]

Fucking crazy shit.
If it"disintigrates" it'll be the same bloody thing as when HankiePankie and the Boyz scared the poop out of CONgress and dolled out a bazillion Benjibuckeroos to the banksters.  The markets went to hell, but the world did not break out in a case of terminal flivitus of instsnt crimally insane violence and revolution.
That's for the Greeces of the world where the NWO fucksticks appointed by the IMF, BIS and Godonlyfuckingknowswho to loot the people starts/cotinues to meet the imoveable object of Not My Fucking Money Anymore, Asshole.
Let's really not get too fucking carried away here, folks.
Supermarket shelves in Dubuque, Iowa will not become emptied overnight set against a background of burning buildings because a couple of countries wind up flipping the bird to Brussles, reissue their own currency and decide that it's just too fucking bad for the bond and shareholders...
Jesus.  

[e_goldstein]

Right, but as so many have said before me, it's Kabuki theatre.