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UBS' Advice On What To Buy In Case Of Eurozone Breakup: "Precious Metals, Tinned Goods And Small Calibre Weapons"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Three months ago, Zero Hedge presented the first of many narratives that started the thread of explaining the "unmitigated disaster" that would ensue should the Euro break up, which in the words of authors Stephane Deo and Larry Hatheway, would leads to such mutually assured destruction outcomes as complete bank failure and/or civil war or far worse. Because if there is one thing the banks have learned in the aftermath of Hank Paulson, is that scaremongering when bonuses are at stake is the only to get taxpayer money to fund exorbitant lifestyles. Unfortunately since the first UBS report, despite the best intentions of the status quo, the Eurozone's plight has only gotten far, far worse, reaching a Lehman-like crescendo when the house of cards threatened to collapse if not for a last minute Fed rescue. However, as Deutsche Bank and every other bank knows well, that measure was merely a short-term fix.

Today, Larry Hataway has released yet another sequel to the original piece, focusing on this so very critical week for Europe, which as Olli Rehn said, must find a solution by Friday or see the EU "disintegrate", in which the vivid imagery, loud warnings and level of destruction are even greater than before. In other words, Europe has 4 more days, something which S&P tried it best to remind Europe of, as the alternative is "or else." And here comes UBS to remind everyone that anything but a "fix" to a system that was broken from the very beginning, would be a catastrophe, captured probably the best in Hatheway's recommendations of assets to be bought as a hedge to a Euro collapse: "I suppose there might be some assets worthy of consideration—precious metals, for example. But other metals would make wise investments, too. Among them tinned goods and small calibre weapons." But even that is nothing compared to the kicker: "Break-up runs the risk of becoming one wretched scenario. Sadly, however, it can’t be ruled out, just as it would have been improper to rule out the horrors of the first half of the 20th century before they happened." And there you have it: a reversion by Europe to the perfectly stable system from a decade ago, is now somehow supposed to result in World War. And with that the global banking cartel has official jumped the shark, just like the FT's latest rumor earlier today did the same by indicating that the well of European "bailout" ideas has officially run dry.

Here is how Hatheway frames the end of the world:

The unfolding Eurozone crisis is not something to be taken lightly. The consequences of policy action are material, not just for the 330-odd million residents of the Euro area, but assuredly for the world economy and financial system as well.

 

This week, Europe’s heads of state gather again to see if they can finally get on top of the problem. The challenges confronting the Eurozone are complex and defy easy solution. Sadly, that hasn’t prevented some observers from proposing some silly ideas. Indeed, it is distressing to see how many misconceived ‘remedies’ are put forward by seemingly reasonable people. In what follows we review some of the odder ones and explain why they don’t make sense.

Why a euro break up is the end of the world: Take 1 - base case

The Eurozone was flawed from the start. The wrong countries joined and the Euro area lacks the appropriate policy framework to deal with its imbalances, lack of growth, and internal inflexibility.

 

Correct.

 

So, the remedy must be to break it up, right?

 

Wrong.

 

The preferred outcome is to fix what is broken.

 

But before we go further, let’s make one point absolutely clear. Even if fixing the Eurozone is better (on any measure) than breaking it up, that does not imply that break-up can’t happen. Countries, like individuals, often make decisions they subsequently regret. When passion (populism or nationalism) dominates reason, stuff happens.

 

Back in September, my colleagues Paul Donovan and Stephane Deo and I outlined the costs of breaking up the Eurozone. The interested reader can refer to the relevant research for details (available on request). Suffice it to say that the combination of cascading cross-border defaults, collapsing banking systems, soaring risk premiums, and currency dislocations would result, according to our estimates, in losses approaching 20% of GDP for creditor countries and 40% of GDP for departing debtors.

 

On reflection this author, at least, feels the estimates are probably conservative—the true costs could well be higher. That’s because once Europe (and the world economy) finds itself in depression, policy probably couldn’t arrest the decline. Broken financial systems and ruined economies are the stuff of prolonged deflation or worse. And it is by now abundantly clear that even unconventional macro-policy cannot deliver results if the financial system is in tatters.

 

Our report received a lot of attention from clients and in the press. And to our knowledge, its findings have never really been disputed. So here’s the point. If most observers agree that a Eurozone breakup significantly increases the risk of widespread economic and financial mayhem, how can't be best? Reasonable people don’t play Russian roulette. So why are some economists suggesting that Europe should?

Why a euro break up is the end of the world: Take 2 - crank it up a notch

It’s only Greece, why worry?

 

Ok, the break-up crowd grudgingly admits. You’ve got a point—Italy can’t leave. But what about Greece? Surely it is so small its departure won’t matter?

 

And its economy is so broken, wouldn’t Greece benefit from leaving the Euro? Wrong again. First, Greece is unlikely to be better off outside the Eurozone than in it. Forced conversion of bank deposits and strict capital controls would be required to prevent massive capital flight in the event a ‘new drachma’ is introduced. While Greek government debt might be redenominated into ‘new drachma’, private sector debt owed to non-Greek financial institutions would remain liable in euros, dollars, Swiss francs or whatever the currency of the original obligation. With the ‘new drachma’ depreciating in the currency markets (why else issue it?), the Greek private sector would experience large and rolling defaults. That’s because after more than a decade of current account deficits, Greek residents owe the rest of the world a lot. Specifically, since the euro was introduced, Greece has racked up external liabilities (cumulative current account deficits) of nearly $300bn, just over 100% of its GDP.

 

So the Greek financial sector would collapse, alongside much of the nonfinancial sector. Credit would evaporate and recession (more like  depression) would result. But that’s not all. Given a very open economy to trade, drachma weakness would result in rising import price inflation, eroding domestic purchasing power (hence deepening the downturn) and undermining the hopedfor competitiveness stemming from nominal depreciation.

 

So the tally is depression, widespread private sector bankruptcy, a ruined financial sector, and surging inflation, offset by modest gains in competitiveness.

 

That’s not a terribly persuasive case for exit.

 

But the biggest reason why the ‘it’s only Greece’ narrative is naive and dangerous is that it almost certainly would not be ‘only Greece’. Once one country leaves the Eurozone, residents in other at-risk member countries would plausibly conclude their country might be next to go. Logic dictates they would send their wealth abroad, resulting in a run on their domestic banks, precipitating a collapse of their financial sectors and economies.

 

The ‘it’s only Greece’ crowd conveniently fails to consider the risks to the rest of the Eurozone.

 

Stuff—in this case, contagion—happens.

Why a euro break up is the end of the world: Take 3 - bring up the cheating spouse analogy: that will get their attention

I promise, really, I’ll only cheat once

 

Recently, another bad idea has made the rounds. How about a weekend exit, where a country (say, Greece) leaves the Euro area, devalues and rejoins, all by breakfast on Sunday, primed to compete against the mighty Germans.

 

It is hard to know where to begin with the instantaneous exit and re-entry ‘remedy’. Leave aside the legal and practical challenges involved (Can a country exit and rejoin without treaty change? Is it legal to re-denominate private sector assets?). The notion is fundamentally flawed on its own.

 

To be sure, the new lower real exchange rate would boost competitiveness. But what about borrowing costs? Undoubtedly, they will soar and remain high for a long time. That’s because creditors (who just suffered a currency haircut over the exit/re-entry weekend) have memories.

 

Unsustainable sovereign credit risk premiums would be replaced by unsustainable currency risk premiums. This ‘remedy’ is, after all, no more than a return to a fixed-but-adjustable exchange rate system with all the credibility problems it embeds.

 

And currency risk premiums would appear not only in the ‘weekend divorce’ country. Others in a similar predicament would lose credibility and suffer rising bond yields—once again contagion effects.

 

In essence, the ‘weekend divorce’ only works if the jilted partner (the creditor) is gullible enough to believe that the other partner will only ‘cheat’ once.

 

I don’t know about you, but…

Why a euro break up is the end of the world: Take 4 - time for some carpet bombing imagery "inception"

What if Napoleon had a B-52 at Waterloo?

 

The last of our weird reasoning cases is the idea that banks, companies and even countries can somehow prepare for Eurozone break-up. In recent weeks various stories have appeared in the press about foreign exchange brokers, multinational companies, banks, and even countries mobilizing teams to figure out how to deal with new currencies, recalibrate cross-border accounting and invoicing systems,or estimate the costs and benefits(?) of break-up.

 

Talk about fantasy. That’s like asking Wellington to stress test his army against a scenario where Napoleon has a B-52 at Waterloo. You don’t re-position the troops—you retreat as quickly as possible across the channel, if not across the Atlantic.

 

Of course, we get it, contingency planning is prudent. But just what contingency are we planning for? In break-up new currencies will be introduced. But will they trade freely? Probably not. As we noted in our original piece on the costs of break-up, it is highly probable that capital controls would accompany exit. Spot, forward, futures, swaps, options and other currency derivative contracts might not even materialize, or perhaps only for limited current account transactions.

 

Companies preparing plans on how they might manage multi-currency cash flows in a post-Eurozone world might be advised instead to pay attention to the risk of not getting paid at all, never mind in which currency. Counterparty risk— bank-to-bank and company-to-company—would soar as defaults mount.

 

Bank risk management teams would be similarly advised not to ask how far new currencies might depreciate or how high risk premiums might rise, but whether the bank would survive a collapse of the payments system, a run on deposits, and widespread default on assets.

Why a euro break up is the end of the world: Take 5, epilogue, or how "you damn dirty apes blew it all to hell"... and by it we mean our bonuses

Simply put, linear thinking doesn’t work in a non-linear world. And break-up is likely to produce a very non-linear set of outcomes.

Which brings me, lastly, to the question I sometimes get about what is the ‘right’ asset allocation in the event of break-up.

 

I suppose there might be some assets worthy of consideration—precious metals, for example. But other metals would make wise investments, too. Among them tinned goods and small calibre weapons.

 

Break-up runs the risk of becoming one wretched scenario. Sadly, however, it can’t be ruled out, just as it would have been improper to rule out the horrors of the first half of the 20th century before they happened.

 

But it is very hard to see break-up as a solution. Let’s hope Europe’s politicians and policymakers agree and take action this week to fix what is broken before itall really breaks up.

At this point we have to say that we find it supremely ironic that a man warning against the futility of linear forecasts does just that for 4 pages, and all based on the flawed premise that returning the system that actually worked, would be tantamount to the apocalypse. Yet as Hatheway says, let's hope that "Europe's politicians agree"... although agree with what is not quite clear - to fund the existence of an obvious fiscal and monetary experimental failure at the expense of trillions more in diluted or outright confiscated funds, just so the continent's (and world's) bankers, who outside of writing trite essays have no utility in the real world, get another massive outlier of a bonus? That actually sounds about right.

As for us, we will bet on the fact that as in every historical event in the past 20 centuries, the powder keg that is Europe, with its tens of religions, hundreds of mutually exclusive cultures, and millennia of hatred, almost without fail took the decision that led to massive game theory fail, and an outcome that resulted in bloodshed. Which is why the only take home message for us here is to do precisely what Hatheway warns to do as a euro breakup Plan Z: buy gold, spam and guns.

Everything else we leave to the only market makers left in town - the world's central banks.

 


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Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:05 | Link to Comment The Old Man
The Old Man's picture

It may be that the UBS boys have a lot of investiture in metal commodities, SPAM and weapons manufacturers. If so, we are again making somebody other than ourselves more wealthy by spending what we do have left.

However, having "a" weapon/ammo, a month or so of food/water, some silver/gold stowed for "any" event, (albeit our current topic of economic collapse fermenting from Europe to the "World"); it's still probably not that bad of an idea to CYA when most everyone else thinks/acts like the world is such a warm, fuzzy and fun place to be. Look around you. Denial is everywhere. 

Being that we are not in control of the situation there, and most of us kinda know who are, we shouldn't just throw our precautions to the wind of any destiny, but make a strong attempt to make our own. 

If that's not your particular parameter, maybe someday that can of SPAM will cost you an ounce of gold. Will it be worth it? You and you only will be the judge, if the time comes.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 23:59 | Link to Comment Hoody Who
Hoody Who's picture

It all boils down to this.

You can shear a sheep many times, but you can only skin him once!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:00 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

Some good points but obviously coming from the camp that says things can still be "fixed".

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:01 | Link to Comment Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Europe will get it's choice. Perhaps sooner than other insolvereigns.  What if the vote is 'no confidence'?

Reminds me of an episode of Star Trek where they waged war by computer. The dead walked to their nearest disintegrator.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 04:00 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

If only one of those European leaders had a hot daughter who'd fall in love with that dashing Capt. Kirk they could somehow manage to work things out.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 07:24 | Link to Comment stant
stant's picture

kirk bugged out to ky a long time ago. with enough acres to keep the meth heads at bay, rigg dees is a near nieghbour with 2500 acres. jerry brukhiemer has more.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:00 | Link to Comment newstreet
newstreet's picture

Euro introduced at 120.  Trading 134.17 as I type.

What's the problem here again?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 03:31 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

Let me fill in some of the blanks.

Euro introduced at 1.1600 in 1999. Immediately down to .8400. In 2001 back up to 1.5990 in 2008 , and now back to 1.3450 as I write.

What happened:  The W/Bamster tag team effort.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 03:58 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

The Demorcat's muslim & Democrat Jon Corzine with Bill Clinton helping went jihad on Europe.  

The Europeans will look for some mega payback on the islamist welfare residents of Europe.  I think islamic invaders will be offered one way tickets back to the middle east or a one way ticket to allah in Europe.  Every 30 to 70 years - the Europeans have a great purging.   

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 04:04 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

the Europeans have a great purging.

 

A few quarts of prune juice wouldn't do you any harm, either.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 07:54 | Link to Comment bombimbom
bombimbom's picture

you all desperately need a refresher course on european mentality. :D

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 08:03 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

hey, that's my line

this UBS guy is Texan, by the way, funny how a "Swiss" Bank can publish this kind of views - just shows how AngloPhone their Investment Bank arm has become

if you want the Swiss/European View from the UBS you have to read their Wealth Management papers

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 08:19 | Link to Comment TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

CrockettAlmanac.com astutely observed:

A few quarts of prune juice wouldn't do you any harm, either.

I think little freddie could use a brain enema. A bottlecap full is probably sufficient to flood his cranium.

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:01 | Link to Comment Lmo Mutton
Lmo Mutton's picture

A red flag virus attack will make those small calibre precious metals a moot point.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:05 | Link to Comment ACP
ACP's picture

LONG 3M FILTERS!!!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:11 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

N95s should already be on the list....

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 17:53 | Link to Comment jonan
jonan's picture

that's probably the only thing i don't own, a gas mask, at that point i don't think i'd want to be around any longer...either that or i'll change my mind and end up buying one...

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:02 | Link to Comment Tater Salad
Tater Salad's picture

Funny.  Everyone's buying guns.  For one, they don't know how to use them.  Secondly, "small calibre", well that doesn't do much good if you can hit the target in the first place and if you do, it's a f'n pellet.  And lastly, if we all know Eurozone is fucked, it won't happen.

may consider getting long, as I'm sure the pain trade will be the right one.  As for guns, I don't play, just big caliber and lots of "plinking".

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:21 | Link to Comment MBOB
Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:03 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

A Frenchman walks into a bar with a frog on his head.  The barkeep asks "Where'd you get that?".  And the Frog says; "It started as a lump on my ass."

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:04 | Link to Comment Fyodor Does DF Ski
Fyodor Does DF Ski's picture

"When did the future go from being a promise to a threat?"

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:12 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

1907, during the banking crisis....

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 17:59 | Link to Comment jonan
jonan's picture

where we collectively die under a worthless pile of debt?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:05 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Relax. Senate Banking Committee members are meeting with IMF Lagarde tomorrow. And there will be another round of bailouts. Spain's new PM has expressed a dire need. Austria is again a lynchpin. And many East Europe countries are tipping into depression, threatening to start a wave of defaults that would nullify the previous bailouts of Greece, Portugal, Ireland etc...and the developing world is cutting rates en masse, all output readings fading fast. 

But of course it just serves to kick the can a few yards now, as we know. They have nothing else in their arsenal.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:06 | Link to Comment Pancho Villa
Pancho Villa's picture

Let’s hope Europe’s politicians and policymakers agree and take action this week to fix what is broken before it all really breaks up.

Yeah, right! Like they can just sign their names on a piece of paper and magically fix a decade of mistakes and mismanagement. I hope they will also come up with a way to eliminate global poverty and cure all diseases while they are at it.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:07 | Link to Comment Mr Sir
Mr Sir's picture

He has a point, printing works. Just like it did in Zimbabwe, Weimar Germany, 1944 Greece, Hungary, Ancient Rome, Yugoslavia....Print or Die bitchez!!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:07 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Since these guys are never right....

...Balls to the wall time for NFLX and BAC....

and...umm, some extra boxes of .410 for "The Judge"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taurus_Judge

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:24 | Link to Comment PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

My uncle has The Judge and loves it!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:48 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

JUNK handgun..  Beware never buy this gun for self defense especially as a first purchase, many better options..

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:08 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Debatable... its fine for self-defense around the home, however, as a standard side-arm for the field, agreed..

First two chambers are .410.... then 3 45's to finish it up....

....and I agree that it is not going to make it into the Hand Gun Hall of Fame...

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:43 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

On second thought I was harsh to label it "junk' fit and finish is not bad.  The energy of the 410 gauge is inadequate to reliably do the job.  Before I hear about all the deer it has taken check muzzle energy vs common handgun calibers.  Second what makes a handgun valuable is essentially conceament and rapid deployment, the Judge for most normal sized men fails this test.   A 1911 pattern pistol or a glock in 9, 40 or 45 shooting quality defensive ammo is your best bet.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:07 | Link to Comment swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

So if Europe doesn't surrender its sovereignty to the likes of UBS, then it will be like the Holocaust all over again.  At least, that's what UBS says.

Hmm.  Maybe buying weapons is a good idea.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 03:25 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

Buying weapons is a good idea in general. Don't matter the specific circumstances:)

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:08 | Link to Comment Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

The 'people' are so tired and apathetic, so in need of novelty, that they can be blamed for anything and it sticks.  I am so tired of hearing bad governmental decisions blamed on populism.  All the terrible decisions, the really bad ones of the last decade, have been worked out in the capitals among pros.  The people have had nothing much to do with it.  Worse is the constant cry of "we must bail out the banks, save the Euro, repave Wall Street" or whatver else there will be another Hitler.  We had Hitler in large part because of an intransigent insistant France, who could force its way only with the help of other remote powers.  We had Hitler because the Reich's truly powerful capitalists thought it was a nice idea compared to socialism, hence backing him.  If many banks fail and many pension funds go bust it will be because the banks took excessive careless risk, and because the pension funds were poorly diversified.  The panic-monger is disgraceful.  Yes the countries that lived life on the cuff either at the state or consumer level for ten years are broke.  So be broke.  Work your way out of it.  The bankers aren't going to help.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:09 | Link to Comment Lester
Lester's picture

Small calibre weapons means any weapon chambered for a round of less power than the  .50 BMG Browning Machine Gun cartridge.

Lots of survival discussion here:  lesteronsurvival.blogspot.com

 

Basic Needs are to stay Warm, Dry, Hydrated, Fed, and Capable of Defending Self and Property.  Any firearm beats a sharp stick or baseball bat, but a .308win rifle and a 1911 pattern .45acp pistol are your most reliable choices for versatility and power.  Easy to learn as well.  Might want a .22lr Conversion Kit for your 1911...   lots more at the blog above.

 

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:15 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

well we are talking about europe here, not amerika. 

 

for optics...

 

us optics , hands down............you get what you pay for......

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:50 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Holy expensive..   A good nikon with bdc or Milret will work just fine..

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:36 | Link to Comment UGrev
UGrev's picture

i picked this up for my AR: 

http://www.burrisoptics.com/ar332.html

...for under 300.00 (with tx and ship) about a year ago. Took 3 rounds to zero. Very good scope for price.. ALMOST like a poor mans ACOG..almost. 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:22 | Link to Comment I Eat Your Dingos
I Eat Your Dingos's picture

Good guns for zombies also

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:11 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

if anyone thinks we have potential problems here, if the government checks stop coming , had better go look at europe.  you have entire alien communites there living off the dole and have been for years......the european cities will burn because the europeans bought into the diversity lie and looked the other way while their white nations were overrun with north africans and turks etc...........oh well, yes i would tell the white people there. the days are coming soon when you and your indigenous peoples must do what you must. show us the way, my friends. show us the way........you must.....

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:16 | Link to Comment San Diego Gold Bug
San Diego Gold Bug's picture

WTF, UBS actually said something intelligent here....those of you in SoCal, big gun show at the Del Mar fairgrounds on the 17th and 18th of this month.  Load up on ammo!!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:26 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

they still have gun shows in california?  i can't believe it.......

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:53 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

He forgot to mention you buy one cartridg at a time with a federal background check and moonbeam jerry's permission, oh and you have to promise never to harm a living creature..

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:05 | Link to Comment San Diego Gold Bug
San Diego Gold Bug's picture

Guys,

   I am a NW farm boy so I am on your side.  You can still cash and carry all of the ammo in CA you want but buying a gun is about the same as trying to buy an F-15 in the USSRCA.  With Gov pussy in office, the ammo thing will probably come to an end just as the SHTF!  I am good on all fronts!

Living in Ca but born elsewhere!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:46 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Had some good times in SD, dog beach, Mission beach, friends had a house in la jolla, still glad to have gotten out..

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 03:21 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

.....and you forgot the best part, close to Camp Pendleton:)

Dont' get any better than that, in California that is:)

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:21 | Link to Comment I Eat Your Dingos
I Eat Your Dingos's picture

If you happen to stumble upon a dingo...they are mighty tasty during an Euro shitstorm.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:21 | Link to Comment PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

"Small caliber weapons"...?

Maybe the "small calibers" work in the EU but I doubt anyone around here is less the 280 pounds...and that's just the females! A .22 won't even penetrate the first layer of Flab or a tit.

However, good to have a .22 around for plinking off you food---a neighbor's dog, cat. squirrel, and maybe an attic rat or two during the rough winters.

Glad to see UBS is paying attention.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:25 | Link to Comment Amused2Death
Amused2Death's picture

Seriously folks, we lived through the great depression, WWII, civil rights, Vietnam and I don't recall citizens carrying 9mm in the streets and defending their properties against roaming hooligans, this IS the 21st century for god's sake and this is not Libya or Yemen...

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:27 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

well , this time its different....................

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:31 | Link to Comment bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

AR-15 with holographic sight, 300RDS ammo on person 1911 in hip holster as secondary, this IS the 21st century after all.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:41 | Link to Comment wretch
wretch's picture

Failure this time will be more devastating.  Think about food delivery systems, water and power infrastructure.  When the fiat blows up, the global megamachine will likewise throw a bunch of gears.  That will be unlike anything in history, and it's really a matter of tight coupling and scale.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:55 | Link to Comment Amused2Death
Amused2Death's picture

I agree, failure will be more devastating and more far reaching, but the mechanisms and the infrastructure to contain such a failure have also been upgraded and are infinitely more powerful than ever before. 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:07 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

The mechanisms and infrastructure all need people to maintain and run them.  If these folks are not paid in a currency with value they can exchange for necessities your infrastructure and mechanisms are rapidly worthless.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 02:52 | Link to Comment delacroix
delacroix's picture

will it be as bad as Y2K

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 03:17 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

Worse, much worse :)

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:55 | Link to Comment Republicae
Republicae's picture

Oh, this is very different. Think about the differences in attitude, in aptitude. During the Great Depression most people lived in rural areas, they were accustom to living on the land, hunting, fishing, growing their own food, perserving their food...hard times were the norm in most of the country. Today, there are few people who even know where milk comes from, must less on how to get it from a teat! People are soft, very soft, they are confortable with comfort, they are complacent and compliant. 

Aside from that, today the inner-connectiveness of the economic and monetary structure is massive, much more so than during the period of The Great Depression. A collapse would prove devastating, but perhaps it would shake the sleeping sheep so much that they would, at least the ones that survive.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 21:54 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

excellent point. The oil and the modern big ag, big energy big government era are a brief diversion in human history but they have tragicaly removed us from the most basic survival skills and knowlege

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:02 | Link to Comment saiybat
saiybat's picture

Work for food programs.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 02:36 | Link to Comment TN Jed
TN Jed's picture

What's this WE stuff?  I don't recall the Western Front or the Ho Chi Minh trail running down I-65.  Anyway, I'm ready.  I've got Farmville AND MW3 mastered.  Do the Dew bro!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 08:24 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

UBS is obviously refering the the old Continant. No need to give this advise to the residents of the 'Home of the free and land of the Brave", since they are already, locked and cocked:)

"Se vice pacem, parabellum"

PS I know it's grammatically incorrect, but this phrase is burned in my mind due to seeing it on a t-shirt worn by a US Marine some years ago.  I know the Marines are good, but just not in Latin.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:28 | Link to Comment blindman
blindman's picture

http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/bedlam-the-history-of-bethlem-hospital/
Bedlam: The History of Bethlem Hospital
.
The Bethlem Royal Hospital in London became infamous in the 1600?s in regards to the inhumane and cruel treatment of its patients as revealed by psychiatric historians.
Bedlam: The History of Bethlem Hospital reveals why Bedlam came to stand for the very idea of madness itself.
It was satirized for centuries as both a human zoo and a university of madness and for 100 years was one of London’s leading tourist attractions, as Madame Tussauds is today.
Britain’s leading psychiatric historians discuss Bedlam and its inhabitants as we reveal the incredible history of one of U.K’s most notorious institutions.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:54 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

...And I might recite a small prayer
If I ever said them
I lay down on an iron frame
And found myself in bedlam
Escaping from the fingers that were stretching through the bars
Wailing echoes down the corridors

The player piano picks out "Life Goes On"
The ring tone rang out "Jerusalem"
Into the pit of sadness
Where the wretched plunge
We've buried all the innocents
Now we must bury revenge...

A small piece of a great song called "Bedlam" by Elvis Costello

http://www.elviscostello.info/wiki/index.php/Bedlam

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:10 | Link to Comment blindman
blindman's picture

" in the words of poet and bedlam inmate nathaniel lee...
" i called them mad and they called me mad and damn them,
they out voted me.""

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 03:14 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

How poinient. Sounds like the debate between the Eurosceptics and the Eurofanatics over the last 15 years. The Eurosceptics were ou-tvoted, with cold hard cash:)

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 19:36 | Link to Comment blindman
blindman's picture

one dollar - one vote. in the usa they call it
'freedom of speech'. supreme law. of course, the fed
is the authority when it comes to defining the meaning
of words , money and channels of significant speech.
by the way, as many know, this is
why we are living in the land of the doomed; it is now
just a matter of free speech, corporate lobbyist law
and fiat inevitability; the math of central control polluting
the popular mind through the medium of exchange, or legal
tender.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 21:56 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

elvis costello is the john prine of english ballad rock - brilliant and beautiful word man

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 03:11 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

I've often wondered where the Engish get their 'excentricity' streak. Must have entered into the national DNA after Bethlam Royal Hospital was closed down and the inmates released:)  

Thanks for sharing:)

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:29 | Link to Comment bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

You guys make me laugh with this doomsday bullshit.  If all those silly banks fail, guess what?? NOTHING WILL HAPPEN. Watch, because the time is coming!! Watch gold go VW !!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:43 | Link to Comment UGrev
UGrev's picture

I have one thing to say to you.. 

BLACK FRIDAY

ok..I lied. I have more to say.. but it's prefaced with black friday and the mentality of those who throw themselves to the wolves. I'm sorry, but when it gets "SHTF bad" and the shelves are cleaned and/or the bread lines longer than the line for star wars when it first came out... and in this day and age of FAST FOOD... 1 of 2 things will happen: You will eat your words, or someone will eat them for you. 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:55 | Link to Comment LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

up green not enough here.  Well said sir.    The icing on the cake will be when the electricity stops, followed shortly by the water flowing from all the magical sink taps.  That will really get the party going.  Hunger sucks but thirst motivates.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 22:01 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

the banks are failing for more reasons than poor planning and corruption. They are just as much symptom as cause. 

There have always been doomsdayers and there have always been naysayers and there have always been moments when one of them was right.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:29 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

I wonder what it would look like if we broadened the scope of the solution to something other than:BAILOUT.

Instead of papering over old losses, what would it look like to accept loss recognition and restructuring? And then use a trillion dollars for pro growth strategies?

Of couse Merkozy has decided that bonds issued by EU countries are risk free and thus no bondholder will suffer losses. Can the credit markets be circumvented in perputity because"xyz" is deemed AAA and risk free? 

By the way the idea that "we have no choice but to print" is complete bull shit. Printing is the only palatable choice to the status quo Kleptocrats. Everytime we accept printing as the only choice, we set up the next bailout, the next printing session. In this way what is stealing from the citizens of a country, from society as a whole, to ensure that those that invested in poor credit risk entites (banks,mortgages, countries) suffer no consequences, becomes acceptable. 

Very few bother to ponder the obvious question which is are all these bailouts going to take us to a place worse than LEH2.0? I suspect at some point in the next 5 years we will have a definitive answer to this question.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:32 | Link to Comment Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

This guy is definitely on the short list of Bankers to be hanged by the balls outside the window of the 18th floor of his bank, and we will stuff his eyes with breadcrumbs too so the seagulls can peck his fucking eyes out too!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:33 | Link to Comment bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

I love the way you think!!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:35 | Link to Comment Republicae
Republicae's picture

Now, don't forget the rope for the politicians and bureaucrats, I'm sure they would like to keep the bankers company as they swing and piss themselves!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 22:05 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

Another great point. The politicians are ten times more evil than the bankers. The bankers have always tried to game the system. The politician's job is to maintain a healthy system that keeps them in check.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:35 | Link to Comment Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

Well, I wish I could say this is all fearmongering, but you are reading it wrong. The banksters are saying that if they don't get their bonus by bailout, then they'll get it by fomenting war.

I hope everyone understands that this is not a warning, it's a thinly veiled threat; a threat historically that they can make good on and profit by.

These lunatics must be stopped. It's not about austerity, or socialism, or Chinese ascendence, or the Muslim fanatic... boil it all down and Joe and Jane the world over basically the same in their wants and needs the world over. No this is about the Takers, them who will lie, cheat, steal, kill, and enslave to get the one thing they want.... more. These Takers are a viral mutant strain of humanity, and must be purged.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:39 | Link to Comment Raymond_K_Hessel
Raymond_K_Hessel's picture

I completely agree with the assertion that a break-up of the Euro is coming in the long-run. However, the market has been suspiciously moving up lately, despite threat of the world ending this Friday (as the article suggests). Might someone out there know something big is coming for Europe that will lift the markets? In the face of market uncertainty, why are the markets going up?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:48 | Link to Comment NERVEAGENTVX
NERVEAGENTVX's picture

In the face of market uncertainty, why are markets going up?

High frequency trading vacuum tubes ramping markets on low volume and headline rumors of some sort of magical solution to europe materalizing after how many "plans"?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:52 | Link to Comment navy62802
navy62802's picture

I've always wondered if the common currency, the Euro, is so great, why do so many of those individual nations within the Eurozone retain the same currencies they had before the Euro existed? Isn't that a tacit admission that the whole concept of a Europe-wide economic and monetary union is flawed from the beginning?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:53 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

"Eventually, there will come a time when a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the 'bail out' debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected."--Mish

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:54 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

http://theulstermanreport.com/2011/12/06/naacp-pushing-race-riots-and-united-nations-intervention-for-2012-elections/

 

naacp says republicans will try and cheat in 2012. they want united nations intervention. well isn't that special............i say let the blue helmets come on in. 

we need to go ahead and get this show on the road........

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:56 | Link to Comment Dr Bob
Dr Bob's picture

so the next move is .......... war.........?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:05 | Link to Comment navy62802
navy62802's picture

You beat me to it. War is the Keynesian Final Solution. It is the only answer that this tired and ragged out economic philosophy (or at least the modern interpretation of it) has left. Unmitigated human suffering in one form or another so that others may prosper.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:25 | Link to Comment xcehn
xcehn's picture

Whatever, just don't take away their bonuses and obscenely lavish lifestyles.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 02:15 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Or make them or their kids fight.  The future technocrats to rule the world must be kept safe and secure.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:06 | Link to Comment Xando
Xando's picture

LOL

UBS sez buy gold and ammo. So, I must heartily extend the welcome to the most recent convert to the ZH club: UBS.

HAHAHAHA

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:07 | Link to Comment Centurion9.41
Centurion9.41's picture

Seriously Tyler, how often do you even read what you write?  Or are you on some Norton bender?

"would leads to such mutually assured destruction outcomes " & "is the only to get taxpayer money"

By the way, it's not the "system" that's the problem - going back to the prior system wont fix the problem.  The problem is simple, old fashion human nature - people acting like selfish brats who think they are owed something a politician promised them....   This debt situation is really just merely a manifestation of the failure of the moral and ethical values of the people - hence their buying snake oil promises from politicians.  And hence why Europe is looking down the barrel of brighter version of the economic and social Dark Ages.

In the future, if you're going to go full retard with Wall Street and OWS, please at least make grammatical sense and stay off the Norton benders.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 22:15 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

please show us, wise one, how to produce a similar volume of brilliant analysis absent grammatical error.

Almost forgot, your second sentence is a fragment

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:08 | Link to Comment Xando
Xando's picture

Hey UBS brutha, can you spare a mil? I'll gladly pay you back Tuesday.

Or force my contrymen to cover.

Either way, I'm good for it!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:11 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

So the Greek financial sector would collapse, alongside much of the nonfinancial sector. Credit would evaporate and recession (more like  depression) would result. But that’s not all. Given a very open economy to trade, drachma weakness would result in rising import price inflation, eroding domestic purchasing power (hence deepening the downturn) and undermining the hopedfor competitiveness stemming from nominal depreciation.

 

So the tally is depression, widespread private sector bankruptcy, a ruined financial sector, and surging inflation, offset by modest gains in competitiveness.

 

That’s not a terribly persuasive case for exit.

************

Iceland told the Financial sector and their Politicians to FO and it all collapsed-the currency imploded as well-

Today-Iceland is humming along-slow growth but positive growth just the same-

The people look to be doing perfectly fine to me-

 http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/files/2011/11/iceland-1.jpg

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 02:00 | Link to Comment omniversling
omniversling's picture

Not all is as good in Iceland as is claimed....many of the 'old hands' still running the game:

 

Because many Icelandic mortgages carry payments linked to consumer prices, one in six households now face mortgage payments equal to 60 percent or more of their take-home pay.

http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories...

Iceland’s loud 'No!': Can't pay, won't pay

http://links.org.au/node/2437

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 02:11 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Even if what you cite is accurate (I'm not saying that it is or isn't, but assuming for purposes of this debate that it may be), Iceland is far better off having begun the process of detoxing and weaning itself off of fractional reserve fiat & the Great Ponzi Scheme of allowing for the further erosion of sovereignty with the allure of monetary support from the institutions and people who only wish to further subjugate their citizenry and harvest their national assets.

Iceland at least now has a shot at having something far more closely approximating an honest economy, built on a solid foundation, than anything now remotely possible in developed nations still playing by the rigged game set up by the fractional reserve bankers.

I'd rather have a real economy, based on real wealth and meritocracy, with banking and financial services unsubsidized by the taxpayers, growing at an honest 1% or 2% per year, than an the alternative, growing at a fictional 3% or 4% per year (if at all, now that we see the light), based on fractional reserve Three-card Monte, where each successive generation is put into further debt slavery, all in the name of "too-big-to-fail" kleptocratic criminality.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 02:38 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Because many Icelandic mortgages carry payments linked to consumer prices, one in six households now face mortgage payments equal to 60 percent or more of their take-home pay.

*************

What the people cannot afford to pay for-wont be paid-they will default and so will any government that promises to uphold any uncollateralized foreign debt demands-

Of course they should have went 100% default and didn't and it will hurt them-but i think Icelandic Politicians might be a bit hesitant to raise taxes or sell off resources with a society that insists that they mean what they say and obviously have the power to destroy any and all local Politicians-

Nothing is smooth in a collapse-but 2 years out-they have 2.4% positive growth and falling unemployment-they have not saddled their future generations with paying off 20 years of banker debt-

Foreign investors and importers are stepping up to the plate with Iceland-

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:15 | Link to Comment Georgesblog
Georgesblog's picture

Rule # 1 is avoid detection. The less you have to interact with strangers and expose your location, the better. Whatever you have when a crisis flares, is all you've got. It might be too late to go shopping.

http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:22 | Link to Comment xcehn
xcehn's picture

People that live in metropolitan areas are screwed if the SHTF. No matter what you have stockpiled, it won't matter if it can't withstand attack from heavier-armed predators descending in droves.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:51 | Link to Comment flattrader
flattrader's picture

So is anyone who lives in suburbia, ruburia or even a rural area.

There a few inhabited places in the US that aren't within 25 mi. of a road.

Stash some cache.  Get a dual.  Be ready to go mobile if you have to.

(I love the huburis found here...I am safe, you are not....guess again.)

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:37 | Link to Comment DarthVaderMentor
DarthVaderMentor's picture

Many people forget logistics. They only think of a weapon(s), ammunition and food and maybe batteries and flashlights. Practice, practice, practice with your weapons.

Let me add some things to the list:

You'll be out of clean water and die of thirst before you die of hunger

1. Solar Distillation Unit

2. Chlorine tablets

3. Water containers

4. Build a well if you're not near sources of water

Keep your weapons in order

1. Spare parts

2. Cleaning supplies

3. Extra batteries for night sights

Footwear

1. Get extra boots and shoes and wear them down to avoid callouses

2. Get extra socks

Clothes will be a problem for a while

1. Extra underwear

2. Extra outerwear - multiple sizes

Medicines and emergency equipment are vital

1. Order extra medicines and be ready to ration them

2. Emergency medicine kits (plan on doing your own sugeries if necessary)

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:44 | Link to Comment jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

deleted :P

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:44 | Link to Comment Amused2Death
Amused2Death's picture

So some banks fail, followed by a soveirgn or two, and then a complete systemic collpase. I get it.  Fiat currency is worthless, how does that translate into dirty water for the public? 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:53 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

"fiat currency worthless"  THINK...  How do you buy the chlorine gas to sanitize major water supplies, how do you pay thsoe folks to do so, how do you pay the folks to run the power plants and produce and ship the coal if currency is worth nothing?  The only way that happens is martial law and force can only keep it going so long..

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 02:01 | Link to Comment xcehn
xcehn's picture

And last, but not least, the will to survive when conditions become so bleak. Understandably, a lot of people would just prefer to off themselves.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 02:55 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

Good place to start is by downloading the US Army Ranger handbook. Also look for manuals entitled SEER - Search Escape Evade Rescue.  And my all time favorite, the Marine Corps Manual.

An educated citizen is a LIVE citizen:)

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 04:06 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

+1

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:45 | Link to Comment jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

EU... got ppl hooked and now if they want to go cold turkey, they can't.

All part of the plan I guess.  They started with Policy integration so countries wouldn't be so opposed to it and will join up.  Then monetary - currency union.  Ya... it's ok, just a small step, not a big deal.

Now is the final stage and probably the stage that most countries do not want: fiscal union.  Budgets etc controlled or interfered with by the governing EU body.

So now they are left with a choice a bloody (back of mind: leaning towards violent) breakup or they finally fully integrate.

 

I don't think citizens want their homelands' actions dictated by Brussels.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:42 | Link to Comment Paul Bogdanich
Paul Bogdanich's picture

The analyst that wrote that needs psychological help.  In his view of the world the ruling elites are responsible for domestic order and prosperity.  Should they EVER lose their power and privliged position becasue of gross mismanagment say, the common people who can't possibly care for themselves would of course turn to the worst barbarism imaginable.  The guy is like a family anihalator.  WIthout me you are all doomed so I am doing you a favor by killing all of us.  These little self important dorks are just too much. 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:54 | Link to Comment Heyoka Bianco
Heyoka Bianco's picture

If Napoleon had a B-52, would it run on wood? Who would fly it?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 02:33 | Link to Comment navy62802
navy62802's picture

It would probably run on hopium.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 04:13 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

If Spartacus could have a Piper Cub then Napoleon can have a B-52.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 02:40 | Link to Comment The Answer Is 42
The Answer Is 42's picture

I don't understand. What's wrong with large caliber weapons?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 02:52 | Link to Comment eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

no metal jacket...one shot kill!  Do any of you have names written on your bullets?  I'm waiting for the black choppers now...for the NSA computers that read this, it's all tongue-in-cheek humor!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 04:14 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Baldrick had a bullet with his name on it. Made him feel safe.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 02:53 | Link to Comment Johnny B Good
Johnny B Good's picture

What most people seemingly have forgotten:

 

                          Giving Birth is a painful Process.

 

What we are witnessing here is not the End of the EU, it is its birth.

A Crisis is not a Catastophe but a Catalyst.

Would the Leaders of Europe agree to join under the Banner of the U.S.E. under less than dire circumstances?

No. - This Crisis is as necessary for the birth of this Superpower as are the pains for the birth of a newborn child.

Anybody who is betting here on the downfall of Europe will lose everything he bets.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 03:06 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

Johnny,

You are probably just following orders. But remember, they hung people in Nuremberg for following orders. Just a thought.

Best of luck in the futures,

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 04:15 | Link to Comment Johnny B Good
Johnny B Good's picture

Well I think that you compare the EU to the Third Reich without so much as a second thought reveals much more about your mental state than about mine.

 

One brought us 60 million dead and the other 60 years of peace and prosperity. You might want to think about that for a while.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 04:18 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

The EU brought us Damien Thorn. Don't forget that.

 

"When the Jews return to Zion, and a comet rips the sky, and the Holy Roman Empire rises, then you and I must die. From the Eternal Sea, He rises, creating armies on either shore, turning man against his brother, till man exists, no more."

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 08:48 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I knew there was some Bible Belt Reason behind all this EuroCynism!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 07:02 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

When you disregard two failed Constitution Referendums and make Ireland vote twice after the first vote didn't get the 'correct' result, you are heading in the right general direction.

As to the 60 years of peace, it's called NATO and about 250,000 US troops stationed in Germany.

As to the WWII losses, a bigger part of that was the Soviets.

You need to brush up on your history, dude:)

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 08:47 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

so the third one does not count? or was unfair, or the Irish's strenght was sapped by the first two?

let me guess, you live in a country that has regularly referendums?

and what is your point regarding the US bases in Germany exactly? are they there because of...?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 08:00 | Link to Comment bombimbom
bombimbom's picture

spot on, +1 but it should be +10

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 03:03 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

"And there you have it: a reversion by Europe to the perfectly stable system from a decade ago, is now somehow supposed to result in World War."

Great observation. This fulltard end of the Euro = End of the World crap is so..... Pythonesque:)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMqSmiC_xHg

Enjoy:)

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 03:25 | Link to Comment Aquarius
Aquarius's picture

If the whole game is fraudulent then the EU will break-up; which it is, so it will. The peoples of each Nation will be in far greater control of their affaires within their own ethnicity that uder the rule of the Bureaucrat disease which will only end in high probability as Dictatorship cum Totalitarianism ruled by a Banker Facist diktat. That is a moreconcentrated version of that which reigns today.

"There does not seem to be any compelling reason to preserve the eurozone as it is currently constituted.'

http://henryckliu.com/page253.html

http://verbewarp.blogspot.com/2011/10/beyond-genesis-revolution-of-mind.html

The Attentional Bell Curve suggests that Chaos follows extrapolated complexity, prior to demise. And here we are, globally. Ask yourself, how many times ad nauseum has all this played out during the past 5 to 8,000 years. Ther is your answer.

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 08:08 | Link to Comment bombimbom
bombimbom's picture

ethnicity is so first half of the 20th century, just like petty nationalism.

BTW beware that focusing on ethnicity leads to thoughts on the pureness of the race that coupled with nationalism brings "nationalsocialism". ethnicity + nationalism = a nazist-like way of thinking.

It's the problem Israel has and should work to amend.

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 08:30 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

But what if the problem with "nationalsocialism" is actually the socialism part ( Mao 70m to 100m dead, Lenin/Stalin tag team 40m dead, PolPot 2m dead) and not the nationalism part? What'cha think?

And isn't calling yourself a European kind of the same thing? Just sayin.......

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 08:51 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Peter, are you mixing Socialists, Communists, Bolshewiks and Maoists? This could go forever.

I call myself an European. I have family members who call themselves American.

Broadly stated "continental" labels. What are you trying to say with that?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 11:14 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

What appears to be the case is that the term "socialism" designates a continuum. On the left are the marxists, on the right are the benign present day socialist nanny states.

The one overriding characheristic that the whole continuum shares is the need to control the individual by the state apparatus, but for the individuals own good of course.

But if you look at the entire continuum closesly, what you observe is that the movement is across the continuum as opposed of getting off of it.

A good case in point is how the marxists of 1920 moved to the side of the national socialists at the time of Hitlers accent. Or how the national socialists moved to the benign socialist big government side after the war. Or how Stalin 'reoriented the internationalist marxists into hardcore nationalist marxists when the Great War was going badly. And the movement is fluid. Read about one of the Meinhoff Gang members sitting in jail because he moved to the national socialist side a few years ago.

And it's the fluid part that really bothers me and should bother you. The reason for this is that socialism is a system constructed in the middle of the 19th centry to address problems in that time frame. However, with the advance of human knowledge, especially eonomic thought, socialism has been proved to be a very bad system on which to organize a modern society.

As the intellectual/rational case debunking socialism became dominant, socialism metamorphised into a pseudo religious cult. And it is his irrational cult like status by the socialist faithful, to prove that socialism works, is responsible for all the mass murder that took place in the 20th century. From Lenin/Stalin and their kulaks, to Mao and their backward peasants all the way to PolPot and the killing fields.  And as for today, how else can you explain the disasterous societal situation in say a Cuba or North Korea/

But back to the story. The problem with socialism is that it is unsustainable. But look at the situation in Greece or the Indignados in Spain where a large percentage of the population is trying to uphold a bad and inefficient social model. You got to wonder when they will come to the realization that it is not the model that is broken, but rather the reason is that a bunch of kulaks or backward peasant (and backed by the CIA or some Pamerstonian conspiracy) has sabotaged their livelyhood. And then the obvious next step will be to "recify the problem".

And here is where the Bosnian situation is really scarey. 40 years after the war, a country that was artificially assembled (just like the Eurozone) decided to break up, and look at how they did it?

See what I mean?

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 08:50 | Link to Comment bombimbom
bombimbom's picture

first, I am a leftist, so you'll never convince me that the best way to govern a community is not by wisely mixing capitalism and socialism. attention focused both on the individual level (person) and the collective level (society). to embrace one only of the two ingredients is a recipe for failure. we are currently experiencing the failure of hypercapitalism. prior to that we experienced the failure of communism. BTW what many seem not to grasp (or forget) is that humans actually are social animals. so the general health of the society is as important as the freedoms of the individuals. to create an overcompetitive hyperindividualistic autistic environment is as unnatural and unhealthy as creating an ants-like illiberal no-free-thinking societal nightmare.

I think that the european political recipe (we could call it socialdemocracy) of mixing capitalism and socialism is precious and must be preserved, resisting the attacks coming from both the extremisms.

that political mindset is deeply ingrained in european hearts and brains. most of continental europeans rightists would look like socialists in the US because they do have a social awareness. this global systemic crisis will erode part of the social conquests, once the crisis will pass we can work on rebuilding it and maybe perfecting it. a more integrated EU will play a key role.

I actually am a european. Being aware that I am european doesn't mean that I am not aware and I don't value being from my city, my region, my state. I don't fear losing my culture because of the coming USofE. just like I didn't lose the peculiarities of my culture by being part of a nation with lot's of more or less different cultures.

in the long term... we all will be dead... ehm no, apart from that annoying truth, in the long term globalization will lead us all to one global government. it will maybe take centuries to get there. so I don't understand why people fear that. there's people obsessed with that. it's obviously where the world will be heading and the positives are there (for example wars), provided we all work on governing the globalization phenomenon.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 03:55 | Link to Comment adeptish
adeptish's picture

Clearly everyone is "Jumping the Shark"....

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 04:20 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

I guess that Ted McGinley will be along any time now.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 04:14 | Link to Comment blindman
blindman's picture

http://bullmarketthinking.com/exclusive-interview-jim-willie-the-public-...
Exclusive Interview – Jim Willie: “The Public Will Not Wake Up Until At Least One Million Private Accounts Are Stolen”

December 5, 2011 | By Tekoa Da Silva
..
someone said it, " things are not what they seem. "

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 04:32 | Link to Comment Don Diego
Don Diego's picture

In Europe there are millions of hunters, however the firepower is limited (12-bore double barrelled shotguns)

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 04:52 | Link to Comment Achilles
Achilles's picture

UBS, Goldman (and other banks) should be saying that everything is fine (because of their shitload of bad loans), but they are not. The timing of these reports, just before the big meeting, tells me that they are scaring the policians (and the people) in doing something big (i.e. print money), which saves the banks.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 05:41 | Link to Comment lunar
lunar's picture

small calibre weapons - for robbing UBS ?????

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 06:33 | Link to Comment The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

 

"Precious Metals, Tinned Goods And Small Calibre Weapons"

Check, check & check - 2 years ago.

Plus generator, plus seeds, plus desalinzation unit, plus ammo, plus, plus, plus.

Semper Peratus!

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 06:51 | Link to Comment arnaud263
arnaud263's picture

do you have the link to the original article of Hatheway?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 07:23 | Link to Comment Officefarmer
Officefarmer's picture

Hello Zerohedgers,

long time lurker here. Been reading this wonderful site since 01/2010. Thank you all for making this a great place.

Someone has a youtube channel with zerohedge videos (one of them is called "ignorance is bliss") - could anyone provide me with a link. I tried JFGoogling it but to no avail.

Thank you in advance and best to all the zerohedgers out there.

As for my 0.02$ regarding this post, the UBS building in my town has a 10+meter Christmas tree inside. Those cost a few grand (inlcuding decorations, transport etc.). So no austerity measures for them. Pompous cunts.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 07:27 | Link to Comment stant
stant's picture

I have visions now of art cashin with a m1a in one hand . jim beam in the other

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 08:01 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

.....morituri te salutant :)

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 07:39 | Link to Comment bombimbom
bombimbom's picture

As for us, we will bet on the fact that as in every historical event in the past 20 centuries, the powder keg that is Europe, with its tens of religions, hundreds of mutually exclusive cultures, and millennia of hatred, almost without fail took the decision that led to massive game theory fail, and an outcome that resulted in bloodshed. Which is why the only take home message for us here is to do precisely what Hatheway warns to do as a euro breakup Plan Z: buy gold, spam and guns.

see, the problem with you is that you failed to pay attention to what was happening in the old "powder keg" that WAS europe in the last 60 years. the barrel has been successfully dismantled, the gunpowder has been used to make fireworks to celebrate the start of the european champions league. that was the primary goal of the EU, to create an environment that made so that any conflict between EU members would have been seen like sheer unthinkable madness. mission accomplished.

1. basically the tens of religions you mention are almost all christian. there is 0 level of conflict between them and religious fundamentalism in the european christianity is irrelevant. that's a big difference that it exists between EU and USA, for example (there's no european "bible belt"). EU vastly predominant mindset on religious matters is that of relaxed agnosticism. and the problem brought by the islamic minority are greatly exaggerated. i could go on but in few words: religious diversity will not bring any war in europe. catholic germans or dutches won't attack their fellow protestant countrymen etc etc they laugh at the idea.

2. bringing together many cultures is not an insurmountable problem, especially if those same cultures have lots of common aspects and history coupled with the differences. you talk about hundreds of different cultures, and you may be right, yet we have 27 nations in EU. This means that most member states have already accomplished in succeeding  bringing together different cultures thus demonstrating they're not inherently exclusive. you apparently don't know the modern european mindset. too many historical movies and books and lack of exposition to the modern european way of living and thinking, I guess. and BTW that it exists a bigger european level is now something accepted amongst the general crowd.
It all comes down to choosing to ignore the things all europeans have in common (culturally and historically) to focus paranoidly on the differences. the way of differentiating things is so that if you focus very hard on the task you'll end demonstrating that you're irrimediably different from your own family.
anyway I think cultural differences are a richness if not used as a tool to create hatred and havoc.

3. millennia of hatred... LOL. the only real hatred you'll find is that resulting from the football (soccer) competition between fans. yes, we look around and can see the millennia of history. it's great but it is history and remains history. the past.

BTW even if out of touch on many things yours is a good paragraph that, if being read and interpreted correctly, highlights the merits of the EU in creating a new harmonized environment in europe.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 07:53 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

And a leopard can change his spots..... like a Bosian leopard:)

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 08:31 | Link to Comment bombimbom
bombimbom's picture

you mean bosnian? what happened in former Yugoslavia (thanks to idiot nationalists) is just another example highlighting the greatness of the EU idea. :)

it shows what happens if:

  • you don't work on creating an environment based on tolerance, mutual recognition.
  • you let criminal nationalists doing their hate work

BTW comparing western europe with former yugoslavia thinking that the latter could serve as a model of what could happen in western europe is not only wrong, ie it shows an incapacity to knowledge the reality of what western europe 2011 is, it will also lead to totally wrong anticipations on what will be.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:27 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Bosnia highlights the greatness of the EU idea.  Allow me to translate, the Eu idea: running to the comforting arms of America for 60 years while making large flatulent claims about our greatness.  You sucked off the defense of the US for 60 years and still spent yourselves into oblivion funding your welfare states.  You and those like you are so screwed, you inhaled the EU kool aid and filled yourself with bullshit, good luck.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:51 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

You can say that again!

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 09:15 | Link to Comment bombimbom
bombimbom's picture

luckily the days of the american empire are numbered and the european federation will be forced to think for itself also on a military level. also to defend our welfare system. a light in the darkness of hypercapitalistic extremism (the state version: China, and the private version: USA) that we shall preserve.

BTW I agree with you, that will be a welcome step ahead making both americans and europeans happy.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:39 | Link to Comment TSA gropee
TSA gropee's picture

The former Yugoslavia was a test case by the EU elites to divide (by military means) a single sovereign nation into two vassal states as to bring them into 100% dependency to the EU core nations teat to suck on. Fast forward to today. The same thing has and is being done to the PIIGS and you don't even see it.  The people of the EU are being setup for tyrannical rule and apparently cannot see the forest through the trees. Are you on their payroll?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

You are obsessed with the nationalist part of national socialism. What you need to focus on is the socialist part. That is where the mass murder lies.

And a remedial course in 20th centry European history would also come in handy. Just sayin.....

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 09:33 | Link to Comment bombimbom
bombimbom's picture

i guess you are obsessed with socialism. I also guess that you have little clue on what socialdemocracy is.

look at HUMANS for what they naturally are, animals, social animals. a sane model of society is the one that mix the freedoms of the individuals to a healthy society. you need to set accordingly the individual/collective controls. if you push the controls to one of the 2 extremes you're looking for troubles.

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:29 | Link to Comment TSA gropee
TSA gropee's picture

So I suppose the extermination of Jews and the mentally/physically disabled by Germany and its allies during wwII does not qualify as hatred? As for religion, Christianity is often used as a general term like beef in China (often from different species). Anyone can call themselves Christian based on their own interpretation. It is Catholicism imho that could be what eventually brings Europeans "together". 

You also speak of dismantling of the powder keg, I believe you're right but for different reasons. The European constititution was voted down by the Dutch and Irish, TPTB knowing that it may never be voted in, rename it to the Lisbon treaty and change the cover page and now no longer needs to be voted on, nor are any interpretations of anything in it. You have a resurgent and nationalistic Germany running roughshod over "lesser" nations, and there is a German pope. Being a Dutchman living across the big pond I have somewhat of a vested interest in what goes on, and so I watch. The way I see it, with Goldman Sachs now at the financial helm of the EU, and the loss of economic sovereignty by nations receiving funds, I believe the 330+ million there will be the first to taste what living under the NWO government is like.   

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