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    This past Thursday marked the one-year anniversary of the US stock market’s death when stocks saw their last high. Market bulls have spent a year looking like the walking dead. They’ve...

UBS Kills Latest European Bailout Proposal: "Why A 50% Haircut On Greek Debt Will Not Work"

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Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:20 | 1774097 Fips_OnTheSpot
Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

Bloodbath.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:25 | 1774118 jdelano
jdelano's picture

question now is--will market pump at 3:58 be powerful enough to close above 1220?  If so, I'm fucked.  If not, market is fucked as three fails is a charm rule says market drops 4% by wednesday.   

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:32 | 1774165 Belarus
Belarus's picture

It's so sad that you just know the mysterious power hour will return as it always does that mystifies human action. 

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:40 | 1774207 jdelano
jdelano's picture

right now, spiking levitation on hardly any uptick in volume.  I'd give away 25% of my total portfolio to someone with the knowledge and ambition to expose the people behind the horseshit in this market.  

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:47 | 1774236 broke433
broke433's picture

Don't short indexes during earnings. Buy aapl for a quick profit before earnings and wait a couple weeks when earnings are almost over to short again.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:54 | 1774265 jdelano
jdelano's picture

we'll see.  Lot of hedge funds lined up to defend the hell out of 1220-1230.  

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 13:04 | 1774305 broke433
broke433's picture

Yeah but I don't think you would get the kind of drop we have had the last couple months. The EU situation has successfully been kicked to at least next Friday. I think a good time to short would be a day after the summit when earnings are almost over and everyone will start to talk about how Europe has no chance of survival again.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 13:13 | 1774350 jdelano
jdelano's picture

u might be right.  ah well.  Hopefully for me the Tylers will expose some exploding credit bomb or G-PAp will come out over the weekend and say fuck it, on second thought, we're done with this crap.  Greece is out bitchez.   

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 13:05 | 1774316 LeonardoFibonacci
LeonardoFibonacci's picture

Markets will rise another 15% because of this

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 13:15 | 1774353 jdelano
jdelano's picture

Next time keep it to a reasonable 3-5%.  Hyperbole undermines your credibility.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 13:33 | 1774426 L G Butz PhD
L G Butz PhD's picture

Actually, making predictions undermines your credibility.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 13:19 | 1774367 Belarus
Belarus's picture

Something occured to me: the market turned on an absolute dime a week and a half ago and the market has skyrocketed virtually everyday since. Think about this: it turned on a dime for no reason at all. But, no, it didn't. It turned because the HFT ramp boys, the 1% powers that be, saw something happening from out of the woodworks.

What was it? It was Occupy Wall Street. Think about this, the 1% are the banks and the politicians. Isn't it ironic that EXACTLY when OWS was starting to gain some credibility as a viable revoluation that the stock market very suddently turned and skyrocketed skyward? No, there is no coinincidence.

This rise is a desperation fling.....had the market kept tanking the 1% knew that had the market kept droping like a rock OWS would already be 100% bigger than it is...the market rocket has been a total and utter depseration move to keep tbhe 401k'rs etc. on the sidelines of the OWS movement.....

I mean we've got the population getting out and protesting, almost no sane person  in the world is buying stocks today, and yet ramp after ramp after ramp after in-human ramp during power hour (it's coming again today folks) occurs. Why is that? Don't tell me it's a sticksave in Europe. It's not: Gold and Silver has SEVERELY underperformed equities during this miracle ramp which makes no sense, because the only way to save Europe is for the ECB to print money. If the market believed that's what the outcome was going to be, which then is the reason stocks have skyrocketed, then why the fuck are PM's getting their asses handed to them in comparision?

Nope. This entire move is based on a total manufactored attempt to keep some of the plebs happy.  

 

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 15:05 | 1774822 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Agreed, but don't just limit your analysis to when OWS started.  This ponzi has been stoked since Oct '87.  OWS is just a little more timely and one can connect the dots easier.

That's why I firmly don't believe that the market needs to sink for more QE.  The ponzi brokers and white collar criminalized fraud agents don't want this thing to fall, moreso next year when there is an election.  So the computerized ramp will continue.

Watching gold and silver makes me laugh.  Not only does the beat down occur EVERY 2am EST time, but it occurs as soon as legs start to appear under PM"s to rocket them higher.

See, no inflation.  Viola!!

 

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 13:04 | 1774307 kaa1016
kaa1016's picture

I'm with you 100% on this. We know these assholes will ramp this market higher in the last 30 minutes, especially if people with common sense try to sell the market at days end.

 

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 14:57 | 1774769 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

ZH OFFICE BETTING POOL TIME!

I've been watching that fucking ramp and talking (screaming sometimes) at my monitor - Belaraus may be right, but I tend to the thought that it is the short squeeze from hell/bear market rally before the fall, and the HTFs will, some great day soon, short the crap out of all this *stuff* and start ramping down the last witching hour.

I suspect it will be on a Monday, not a Friday.

I'm probably wrong about this.

But the betting pool is: Ramp up or Down today? Once upon an organic time, you could sort of predict, on a not-much-news day really, that Friday would be a ramp down - taking some profits for the week and not wanting to be long over an uncertain time this weekend.

 This Friday?

I think the you-know-whos are gonna ramp it up - one, hopefully, last squeeze before reality bites.

But I'm probably wrong about this, too. Actually, I hope to hell I'm wrong about this. I can afford to keep losing on the short side, but I really, really don't like it!

 

And - on a side note - does anybody besides me find it strange/surreal/words fail me that "Paid For By Obama For President" advertisements are on this site? I mean, I'm looking at one Right Now! WTF?

I'm an old fart, and I honest to God don't understand *anything* any more. If I ever get back even (and I will), think I'll put it all in cash, silver (more liquid in the boonies), and guns...I'm off the grid on a 43 acre, out in the boonies homestead, all built now. Can probably get by.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y70vcs3oV14

 

 

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 16:05 | 1775044 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Well, Fuck Me. I was right - ramped up. The last 10 minutes were hilarious. (NOT)

So I won on the office pool, and lost on the Market.

Thank God It Is Friday!

I'm gonna go fly - fuck this shit.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 13:53 | 1774433 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Low volume, relatively steady trading pattern strongly supports a shocking END-OF-DAY RAMP.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 20:41 | 1775865 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

The ultimate solution for Greece would be for banks to take a 200% haircut on Greek debt.

That would mean that whatever amount Greece owed a given bank, that bank would now owe

Greece. First it would punish the banks for making such obvious bad loans to Greece, and secondly

it would give Greece enough money to keep their excessive lifestyles going for another 10+ years.

Greece could use the money to buy shares in the banks to recapitalize them and in turn Greece could

use their bank shares as collateral to get low interest loans from the IMF and the ECB. 

It's a win/win situation. Ms Deo is not the only erudite expert on the Greek debt problem.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:49 | 1774243 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

with vampires

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 14:19 | 1774607 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture
Barroso sounds like he needs the money yesterday. EU's Barroso says any decision on EFSF or on banks at Oct 23rd summit should take effect immediately
Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:22 | 1774102 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

is chart 5 a representation of the broken yo-yo this has all become?

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:28 | 1774130 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Looks like a peace sign.

 

Ban the bomb...ban the bailouts.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:52 | 1774256 machineh
machineh's picture

There's LEVERAGE for you -- via the non-participating participants.

But -- OOPS!! -- it's leverage in the wrong direction.

A total wipeout 100% default buys only a 50% haircut -- CRAP! 

Maybe Greece should just give up on its banks ... let a new banking industry arise from scratch.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 13:04 | 1774304 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

And here I thought they might do what you propose one and a half years ago.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:56 | 1774267 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

lol.  you in marketing LH?

maybe they can be convinced to use that as the new national greek logo.

harmony and understanding, sympathy and trust abounding.   

...well, maybe not so much trust abounding

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 13:02 | 1774294 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

harmony and understanding, sympathy and trust abounding.   

+1

The deeper into the rabbit hole the system goes, the crazier the propaganda.....

I wonder what Obama's '12 campaign slogan will be?

Shut up and HOPE, damn it!

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 14:18 | 1774588 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

or how about...

.

eat your peas

'cause u gotta appease

p - pp - pthf - p - pp - pthf

bend over please

and just pay those fees

p - pp - pthf - p -pp - pthf

.

(best rap i can do in text, lol).

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:22 | 1774106 BORT
BORT's picture

Check out the news from Iceland.  Which volcano erupts first:  Katla or Debt

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:25 | 1774117 Fips_OnTheSpot
Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

better watch El Hierro - very grumpy below sealevel

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 13:20 | 1774371 Enceladus
Enceladus's picture

Watch em all here.

Volcanoes

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/eruptions

Earthquakes

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/?view=1

Space Weather / Coronal Mass Ejections

http://www.spaceweather.com/

Nuke News

http://enenews.com/

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:33 | 1774175 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The financiers and policy makers are praying they can have an excuse for a collapsed market, be it Mother Nature or war.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 13:25 | 1774392 Jeff Lebowski
Jeff Lebowski's picture

I couldn't agree more.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:24 | 1774111 Hansel
Hansel's picture

If 50% isn't enough and a "large restructuring" would be better for Greece, just go all the way for the 100% cut.  What is sovereign debt backed by?

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:25 | 1774123 Fips_OnTheSpot
Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

go back where "credit" comes from.. latin "credere" - which means 'trust'. There ya go.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:28 | 1774141 jdelano
jdelano's picture

was a typo.  it's really from currere.  "To run"

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:36 | 1774183 Fips_OnTheSpot
Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

Wah, another monitor cleanup session :)

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 13:13 | 1774349 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Could also be attributed to "credo" (blind belief).

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 15:00 | 1774782 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Cracked me up! Thanks! I needed that.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:31 | 1774157 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

Since we have fractional banking authoring "credit", isn't it OK to have fractional trust. For that matter, can't Greece pay back in fractional remittance and resolve their debt with something like 4 Euros.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:29 | 1774144 maxmad
maxmad's picture

 What is sovereign debt backed by?

 

The blood of the elites!  The Elites can't take a "haircut"!!!

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:51 | 1774251 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

What is sovereign debt backed by?

 

Nothing, just like Gold. /sarc

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:25 | 1774114 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Friday afternoon release an accident? I think not. It matters not, the 'market' has no sense whatsoever of... well... anything.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:24 | 1774115 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Great analysis.

What an epic clusterfuck.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:27 | 1774129 abugarance
abugarance's picture

geithner has it all sorted thanks to a blankfein haircut double squared swap...it's all been taken care of

 

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:29 | 1774143 Segestan
Segestan's picture

Time to Break out..' Bazooka Gold' .....say to 50,000?. Problems solved?

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:31 | 1774155 user2011
user2011's picture

Remember the 500 million + ambassy we are building in Afghan ?     I think it could be a mineral ore refining facilities.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:32 | 1774158 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I think it is important to remember that from a sovereign perspective, all this debt is just a charade to allow money printing with the illusion of that money actually has a purpose or a backing.  The money printing will not stop no matter what. 

And anyone who thinks the Euro is going to crash has no clue about FX markets.  FX is completely rigged by central bankers.  There is no economic push or pull on paper garbage money.  The exchange rates are set by interventions.  On a gold standard, economic events effect currency because gold changes hands to settle accounts.  On a fiat standard, exchange rates are set to adjust economic activity.  The price of paper is the tool, not the outcome.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:36 | 1774185 Going Loco
Going Loco's picture

Quinvarius - "FX is completely rigged by central bankers."

Well it is until it isn't. Just ask Norman Lamont (British Chancellor at the time Soros killed the pound).

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 13:02 | 1774258 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I have heard that Soros rumor, but after examining the timeline, it is clear that Soros was operating on inside knowledge of coming government actions, as he always does.  He didn't kill the pound.  He knew the British government was about to take an action that would devalue the pound.  Can I prove it?  No.  But in the end, it was an offical policy to devalue that caused the drop.

If you had never heard the rumor that Soros killed the pound with his vast network, and just looked at the event timeline, you would come to only one conclusion.  He paid for information and influence.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday

The above gives you a good feel for all political mumbo jumbo that was going on.  And notice, that final decision to make sure the Pound was pulled out of the ERM was done in a secret last minute meeting between a few insiders, just after it was publicly stated the pound would be strengthened by raising interest rates.  Soros would have been destroyed except for the last minute hi-jacking.  I have no doubt he paid well for that.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:34 | 1774171 Voodoo-economist
Voodoo-economist's picture

to be perfectly honest, this bank only has underperformers left. Id put their sell side research where it belongs: into the next toilet.

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