UBS' Top Ten Surprises For 2012

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Sat, 12/17/2011 - 17:15 | 1990291 SilverDoctors
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Top 2012 surprise for me is that they've been able to hold it together till 2012 and keep things limping along without an official declaration of QE3 (although obviously QE is ongoing....the fed just currently isn't telling anyone about it!)


Sat, 12/17/2011 - 22:07 | 1990606 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

This is a ridiculous piece of tripe. Very little can be taken seriously here. Whomever did this analysis must have only asked Barney Frank, the board of the IMF, the Bernank, and Jim Cramer what they thought.

Sun, 12/18/2011 - 06:28 | 1991047 UnderDeGun
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And, unfortunately, the only competent one in relation to the group as a whole was probably Cramer.

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 17:17 | 1990295 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Financials outperform : not gonna happen (unless massive QE3)

The euro rallies : not (France elects Marine LePen)

Oil prices drop below $70/barrel : not. (Iran war)

US 10-year Treasury yields break out : not, but eh, the markets are so crooked, wouldn't surprise me.

An Italian sovereign upgrade : funny

An E(M)U exit : gee they got one right

Fewer than five governments switch hands : but some of them could bring a shitstorm (France (if Marine LePen), Taiwan (if nationalists), Ukraine (if anti-Russia party), US (if Ron Paul))

Britain does Great : smoking good stuff are you?

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 17:47 | 1990325 sqz
sqz's picture


Financials outperform : only way this is going to happen is if its US financials faring better or much better (haven) than EZ financials, especially with now expected QE3.

The euro rallies : only way this is going to happen is due to further non-Euro asset sell-offs as funds are repatriated. Rallies will be otherwise very much capped.

Oil prices drop below $70/barrel : possible but not likely, at least not H1 2012. It would require a fast deflationary scenario such as EZ break-up or China rapidly slows to a crawl. Even disorderly bank failures are not permitted these days!

US 10-year Treasury yields break out : not going to happen. If anything, yields will head lower.

An Italian sovereign upgrade : such a bad joke.

An E(M)U exit : possible, but not likely. Greece is being paid to remain within the Euro while they are busy writing CACs into their domestic law bonds. More likely to have an EZ restructuring or split.

Fewer than five governments switch hands : Arab Spring was only the start, tbh. When economies sour, regimes change quickly and sometimes drastically and many elections due.

Britain does Great :  we're talking about a country that had to be told how to run their games security by the Americans who said they would rather send a small army of federal security agents than trust the original British security plans. The British agreed they messed up and more than doubled their resources. They also have top athletes who are so badly funded they sometimes raise donations via eBay (no joke)!

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 19:08 | 1990421 s2man
s2man's picture

sqz, yours is the only animated avatar I have not blocked.  I find them distracting, but yours is mesmerizing.  +1  Ha! I just saved it to my harddrive.

Sun, 12/18/2011 - 01:32 | 1990782 Cast Iron Skillet
Cast Iron Skillet's picture

"The euro rallies " - but if you think Currency Wars (Jim Rickards), it might. I sort of think if the EURUSD drops low enough, it could precipitate QE3. I mean, it wol dbe more like the $ plunges, but the effect would be similar.

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 17:20 | 1990301 Corn1945
Corn1945's picture

I would fade this TBTF fraud factory with both hands. 

I'm amazed Zero Hedge even posts this garbage. 

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 17:23 | 1990305 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

After supposedly reading (instead of just commenting) Zero Hedge for 42 weeks one would assume it has become clear that it takes two opinions to make a market. Or maybe another 42 weeks is required? Or perhaps you wouldn't mind sharing with everyone your monopoly on every perspective and outlook in the known universe?

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 17:29 | 1990311 Corn1945
Corn1945's picture

Two sides of every trade. I get it.

But don't insult everyone's intelligence by degrading these frauds into the dirt while posting their "predictions" to be taken seriously. I bet you'll post a follow-up piece in a year making fun of this list after half of them turn out to be wrong, something you've done several times. 

I have more respect for someone who takes a solid stance rather than constant waffling. You can't expect people to take you seriously when you waver between diametrically opposed positions on a near daily basis. Either they are frauds to be faded or they aren't. They can't be both at the same time. 

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 17:32 | 1990317 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

It's called perspective. They may well be frauds but at least they provide an outlook however wrong it may be. Said outlook will certainly be lost on you, but others will likely make money from it (regardless if it is right or wrong). Lastly, if it insults your intelligence to read a post about something, here's a hint: don't read it. Last time we checked there were no guns pointed at any readers heads.

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 18:00 | 1990341 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

Last time we cheeked...

there!  fixtit!

i enjoyed my jaw dropping over many of these, btw

the unicorn archetype is strong @ ubs, BiCheZ!

Sun, 12/18/2011 - 10:51 | 1991325 Brother Revegen...
Brother Revegend Magoun's picture

Corn1945 <quote>They can't be both at the same time.</quote>

"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio,

     Than are dreamt of in your philosophy." (c) 

Sun, 12/18/2011 - 02:46 | 1990888 chaartist
chaartist's picture

spot on :) funny

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 17:21 | 1990303 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

How in the FUCK can they see Euro increase (which is dollar decrease) and dollar denominated oil falling in price?

Azerbaijan just reported 200K bpd REDUCTION in oil output for 2011.  Mexico will be down double that.  US production MAY increase 20K bpd and that's supposed to offset 600K bpd reduction?

It's like these people are in a fairy tale.

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 17:32 | 1990315 brown_hornet
brown_hornet's picture

Home field advantage...UK

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 17:58 | 1990338 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

Surprise, surprise all over.

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 18:01 | 1990343 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I thought George Carlin died.

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 18:07 | 1990344 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

"a good writer often confronts his audience with practicalities,... but, a  great author extrapolates their dark side - it is the eloquent arbitrage of ambivalence"

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 18:11 | 1990351 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

Exactly how is GB going to win 25 gold medals? 

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 18:33 | 1990371 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

They will invest in an 24x ETF for winning a gold medal, and get one physical.

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 19:36 | 1990444 Dugald
Dugald's picture

As always, they will muddle through...whilst the Germans look on and mutter about it all being a fiendish British plot and to be most careful....or..Achtung! es ist eine teuflishche Britische Grundstuck ist extreme Vorsicht geboten!

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 18:15 | 1990355 HellZero
HellZero's picture

Number 9 should read

Fewer than five governments switch hands; replaced with ex-squid employees

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 18:22 | 1990361 aus_punter
aus_punter's picture

#11 UBS (The investment bank) closes its doors for good.

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 18:40 | 1990378 Buyemall
Buyemall's picture

I think they got it right. Some austerity, some inflation, some default a few haircuts , some central bank intervention, a touch of psi and everything is going to be just fine.No surprises!

Come Spring , Buyem'all !!

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 18:59 | 1990405 s2man
s2man's picture

The summary, "For those pressed for time", was so funny I had to read the whole thing.  Yes, those would be surprises.

re: $70 oil, IMO that would take a global depression and no ME war.  Yes, I'd be surprised...  Reminds me of my grandpa saying, about the Great Depression, "I remember when gasoline was 10 gallons for a dollar.  They only problem was, nobody had a dollar".

It must have been rough.  I don't know anyone who recovered, mentally, from the Great Depression.  Grandpa fixed, mended, made do, or did without for the rest of his life. I don't know how he did it, but he worked two full-time jobs when I was a kid, to pay off his 2% mortgage ASAP. He did get a little soft, and let Grandma buy a new couch, in his last years. ;-)

Great Grandma's life must have been even worse. She canned, canned, canned food until she died. Though folks laughed at her about it, she would walk into the pantry, give a big sigh, and smile.  Forget stocks, houses, or gold, THAT was wealth to her, having food.

I suspect we will see such times again, soon.  My pantry is full, but it does not make me smile.  I only makes me wonder, how much more will we need? What else can I do to prepare?

I apologize for wandering OT. As you can tell, I'm not feeling very optimistic about the future.

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 19:40 | 1990459 Dugald
Dugald's picture

A nice trip down memory lane...Thank you, I enjoyed it..

Sun, 12/18/2011 - 11:28 | 1991419 grey7beard
grey7beard's picture

>> I apologize for wandering OT.

No need, it was one of the better replies I've seen in awhile.

I was raised by my grandparents who were in their 40s during the depression.  They had a farm out in the sticks of Alabama and worked in the cotton mills.  I can't imagine how tough life was for them.  In their later years they moved to one of the booming coastal cities to be closer to their son, but they maintained their farm life and depression surviving attitude.  My grandfathter was 75 years old when  he took me in as a young boy.  I grew up on beans and cornbread and triple mended clothes.  Needless to say I stood out like a sore thumb amongst my well to do city peers in school.  I now look back fondly and try to remember scraps of the life they led.  I certainly remember the huge vegetable garden out back with my grandfather saving his seeds from year to year.

After moving out of their home I assumed a much more standard middle class lifestyle, but I continued to be quite frugal.  When the bottom fell out of my personal financial life I was able to make major adjustments as I owned all my real estate free and clear, as well as my truck, had no debt what-so-ever, plus pretty decent savings.  After liquidating my property I was able to move to the country and am in the process of building a small hobby farm.  I am quite happy out here and give all the credit to my good fortune to my grandparents, who instilled in me just enough depression era lifestyle to give me a chance. 

Is that S2 as in boat?

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 19:04 | 1990413 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Right now, a lot of "experts" have egg on their face.


The SPY is still up huge from the 2009 lows even with the worst economy in years.

Despite the naysayers, investors continue lapping up U.S. government and muni-bond paper like cotton candy.

And Peter Schiff, Martenson, Sinclair, Puplava, KWN, etc. were dead wrong about "Things" over "Paper".

Commodity prices are getting crushed across the board creating a huge boon for consumers.

And the U.S. is way out performing emerging markets and the "resource" economies.

Last week was proof positive that TPTB can control commodity prices with a flurry of paper pushing and jawboning.

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 19:36 | 1990452 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

You're a little late joining the commodity bashing party. I did love the gold/silver reversals in their respective channels btw.

Sun, 12/18/2011 - 03:25 | 1990938 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Last week was proof positive that TPTB can control commodity prices with a flurry of paper pushing and jawboning.

BUT, for how much longer?

Sun, 12/18/2011 - 12:44 | 1991587 grey7beard
grey7beard's picture

>> The SPY is still up huge from the 2009 lows

If I'm not mistaken, gold is also up huge from the 2009 lows.  AAMOF, I'm thinking gold has done a tad better.

>>And ........ Sinclair.....were dead wrong

I don't understand your apparent need to constantly denigrate Sinclair.  What has he done other than give good free advice?  If you want to attack a PM bug, maybe someone like Turd, who's advice has been tremendously bad, unless you listen to his rendention of his track record.  Plus he's in it mainly for the money, plus a little ego boosting. 

The only thing your constantly denigrating Sinclair does is highlight his class, and  your lack of.


Sat, 12/17/2011 - 19:22 | 1990439 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture



Sat, 12/17/2011 - 20:43 | 1990542 apu123
apu123's picture

I agree with the Tylers on the value of posting these opinions from the TBTF banks/brokers.  I like to see what the TBTF are trying to sell their customers and the public.  I can get some insight into the over optimistic side of things.  I also read some of the information I get from a friend still employed over at BAC/ML.  It is all just food for thought, there are still some good analysts and the cheerleaders are good for an occasional laugh.

Sun, 12/18/2011 - 03:26 | 1990939 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Maya goes on (and on...) :>D

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 22:20 | 1990615 JimBobOMG
JimBobOMG's picture

Ron Paul please.

Sun, 12/18/2011 - 00:14 | 1990725 bbbilly1326
bbbilly1326's picture

"One clear lesson from history is that when populism and nationalism are in ascendency, rationality is usually in decline."


And I suppose the only rational statements/beliefs are coming from the economists/financiers then ?

So much for the Peoples' will......but then we know with what regard these guys hold the common people.

Sun, 12/18/2011 - 04:14 | 1990976 the tower
the tower's picture

Reverse their predictions all of a sudden it makes sense.

Sun, 12/18/2011 - 06:05 | 1991037 thegr8whorebabylon
thegr8whorebabylon's picture

I don't know.  This reads a bit like Armstrong's latest.

Sun, 12/18/2011 - 10:21 | 1991260 ThrivingAdmistC...
ThrivingAdmistCollapse's picture

Well all bottom up decision making is a form of the "greedy" algorithm.  Thus it will always miss the forest for the trees to some degree.  

economic collapse

Sun, 12/18/2011 - 16:08 | 1992032 AgShaman
AgShaman's picture

Interesting Missive....

Almost as if it was a "Retraction on Steroids" 180 degree flip from their recent article of...

...."You better buy tinned goods, guns, bullets, and gold....cuz the world is about to erupt in chaos any day now"

I wonder who told them to "paint" a more optimistic picture all of a sudden?

Sun, 12/18/2011 - 19:35 | 1992345 DrunkenMonkey
DrunkenMonkey's picture

Europe has experienced the bubonic plague more than once.

We laugh in the face of pro-cyclical austerity.

Sun, 12/18/2011 - 19:40 | 1992357 AgShaman
AgShaman's picture


Could you perhaps spend less time drinkin' and 'debauchin'....and more time searching for the location of the guillotines.....your Euro-crats need servicing?

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