The Ultimate Divergence: Birinyi's Ruler Predicts S&P At 5000 When Volume Hits Zero

Tyler Durden's picture

In a day like today, when stocks and bonds are rallying, indicating that the market is once again convinced Fed "bad cop" Fisher was full of it, and more easing is expected (as noted earlier), and with NFP set to fall on a market holiday, thus the number, if weak, can be spun as one ushering in more QE over the weekend, one can only sit back and have fun with Birinyi's ruler. Which in turn brings us to the following conclusion: with the market in 2012 once again in a straight diagonal line, just like in early 2011, gaining 50 SPX point each month regardless of news, climatic conditions, liquidity and frankly anything else, it is quite obvious that the S&P market will hit 5000 by December 2019, a date which is also notable because as the second Birinyi ruler chart shows, that is when trading volume will officially hit zero.

Birinyi vs stocks...

and volume:

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Spooky Polish's picture

Ohhh ... Bullish ? 

or just bear shit to eat. Maybe some WS suckers will call it honey... 



idea_hamster's picture

2019 != 2020, but point taken....

Manthong's picture

Change we can believe in.

Precious's picture

This charlatan Birinyi admits he's been clipping articles from shitrags like Fortune for the last 50 years.  That's the basis of his insights.  What a fucking joke.  What's more ridiculous than Birinyi are the fools who put money in his fund.

Carl Spackler's picture

The explanation would be called hyperinflation ala Weimar but the"Ruler" is a figment of Birinyi's imagination.




Problem Is's picture

Yeah... that can be the problem with extrapolations...

Extrapolate: To infer or estimate by extending or projecting known information...

WestVillageIdiot's picture

At the rate I was growing when I was 15 I figured I would be at least 11 feet 7 inches by this point in my life.  I still can't figure out where my math went wrong.

DavidC's picture

That was hilarious! Thank you!


TwoJacks's picture

you need sellers for stocks to drop..  if all buyers simply hold, even short sellers eventually have to buy back to raise prices.  it's the ultimate conspiracy - buyers have all apparently agreed to never sell again.

Dr. Engali's picture

There aren't any shorts to buy back their shares. It's a fucked up market.

WestVillageIdiot's picture

The shorts have been left bleeding on the side of the road so many times since 2009 that there is nobody to play that role anymore. 

I keep telling friends that I am more afraid of the system now than I was in early 2008 and I was scared shitless at that time.  It won't die in a momentary blast but in a long, drawn out whimper.  It's like having a Band-Aid ripped off slowly that runs from your toes to your eyebrows, that runs two circles around your groin area.

Quaderratic Probing's picture

Straight from Buffets book...the best time to sell is never

HD's picture

It will be great. "I'm a millionaire - look at my stock portfolio. I'll tell you the secret of my investing success, just visit me at home anytime...I live in a van down by the river."

WestVillageIdiot's picture

"Woo hoo, we are all millionaires.  Now here is your $32.50 for that cheese sandwich you have in the case." 

Catullus's picture

Law of the Nth + 1 Bagholder.

hedgeless_horseman's picture



The rise and fall of the American empire.

The money supply and real GDP will look about the same as the above two charts.

malikai's picture

Are you implying you do not believe in the Global Economic Recovery©? Are you al-queda?

WestVillageIdiot's picture

I wish I could get my Johnson to look like a chart of the rise in sovereign debt over the past 10 years. 

yogibear's picture

The rally monkey is banging the cymbals again. You know what time it is again?

Bernanke and the Federal reserve will just keep expanding this bubble.

Stoploss's picture

Yeah, how 'bout that bond action of late? Just when you think you've seen it all, you get green mkt AND bonds, at the same time! LOL!!!

SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Birinyi, "SCOREBOARD!"

Sad, but true.

Xue's picture

S&P will be at 5000 when my coffee will be at $50.

a growing concern's picture

Don't worry, though, because you'll be making $100,000 a year.  You'll be rich, I tells ya!

kito's picture

it is quite obvious that the S&P market will hit 5000 by December 2019:

ha, like there will be a functioning market by then!................................

kito's picture

oh wait.....there isnt a funtioning market now........................silly me...............

ghengis86's picture

We don't even have one now

q99x2's picture

That means that if in 2019 I sell my one share of AAPL and there are no buyers that I'll singlehandedly crash the market. But I guess that everyone is a buyer in 2019 so the market would go to infinity whenever someone decides to sell a share. Something doesn't seem right.

Milton Waddams's picture

By 2019 there will be no market.  Some Bernanke-clone will simply declare the fair value of each individual stock.  'Our analytical models indicate that the fair value of Walmart, based on real time data, is $23981.  All transactions in the equity shall be conducted at that price until further notice.'

bugs_'s picture

it may be illegal to sell by then

SilverCoinLover's picture

If the Supreme Court upholds Obamacare in June, by 2019 we could all be mandated by government to do just that, everyone forced to buy and hold stocks by law with selling only allowed by permission! If they can force us to buy health insurance, they could force us to buy anything!

Pecunia Non Olet's picture

Such manipulation destroys the edge

monopoly's picture

It is so hard to even relate to all this if you are living in America. But, that was the America of the history books. And as far as bonds go, a 30 year bull market in bonds does not end in one or two months. Patience all, patience, Benny will lose it and Not get it back. 

smb12321's picture

You are right.  All predictions of collapse next ___(fill in time frame) are absurd.  Collapse may be inevitable but it is not predictive.  Next to the debt bubble, the bond bubble is the scariest.  Just as frightening is the loss of private citizens and foreigners from treasuries.  It's apparent that the Fed (now buying 70%) will soon be the only buyer of treasuries in a ZIP market.

junkyardjack's picture

By then everyone will just be trading Mega Millions tickets

smb12321's picture

What will happen is that John Q will jump in at the end in time for the crash.  I say, the trend is your friend.   The ONLY way to lose money in the market is by investing on the up side in a bear market (or conversely, going short in a rising market).  An idiot can make money in anu market by following trends but the fool tries to buck the trend.

So, buy precious metals, invest and keep those S&P "black swan" puts up to date.


Sudden Debt's picture

Hope is not an option. There is too much debt, too little cash-flow, too many promises, too many lies, too little common sense, too much mass delusion, too much corruption, too little trust, too much hate, too many weapons in the hands of too many crazies, and too few visionary leaders to not create an epic worldwide implosion.

monopoly's picture

Sudden, you are right. And....we have the same scenario here in America. Same problems, same thieves, different faces and accents.

WAMO556's picture

hey, I just read that somewhere???!!!

Sudden Debt's picture

Yep, marketingoracle, I found it so good I copied it

monopoly's picture

And then you will have gold, PMs and interest rates all rising at the same time. Now that will be a sight to behold. 

lizzy36's picture

Ask no questions.

If $4 a gallon gas is good $5 a gallon will be great. (costanza market).

Ask no questions.

Buy the dip and everything else.

Ask no questions.

Liquidity is the solution.

Ask no questions.

Remember the trend is your friend.

Ask no questions.

Igonorance is bliss, and just buy the fucking rip!

hedgeless_horseman's picture



Ask no questions.

Nations must run deficits.


swissaustrian's picture

SkyNet will have forced everyone out of the market by 2020.

monopoly's picture

Even my bride of 30 years just advised with gas over $4.00 the sheeples will stop driving again. I advised, "dear", lol, there is no demand, the rise in price is due to the absurd policies of the inmates at the aslyum. Lets see what happens as we reach a 5 handle. She gets it now, but most do not.

Just buy AAPL, AMZN and CMG. Oh and GRPN on the "dip".

a growing concern's picture

You forgot LULU, jacktard!  It's the cornerstone of any sound portfolio!

monopoly's picture

thanks a growing....I am on it. :)

junkyardjack's picture

RGR for all the people hoping for the end of the world

LawsofPhysics's picture

Ahh yes.  We will all be "wealthy" beyond our wildest dreams, but as soon as someone trys to sell and/or buy anything we find out...  wealthy?  ...not so much.  Take stock in a bride of 30 years as most last less than a year these days.

BlackholeDivestment's picture

...2019 zero mark on the chart? Interesting optimism., -3 years ain't a bad miss is it? Lol