UMichigan Confidence Drops For The First Time Since August 2011, Below Expectations - Drop Not Big Enough

Tyler Durden's picture


As predicted earlier, UMich had no choice but to miss, because in centrally planned Bizarro markets only weak economic data leads to a rise in risk. Sure enough, with expectations of 76.2, the same as the March print, Consumer Confidence posted only its first decline since August, while missing expectations, printing at 75.7. And while a miss on its own would have led to a surge in stocks as NEW QE WOULD BE IMMINENT ANY SECOND NOW, the miss was less than the whisper number of 73.2 predicted, and as such this was merely one month of coincident data propaganda flushed down the drain. Also not helping things is that the Expectations index printed at 72.5, up from 69.8 and the highest since September 2009. With hope still so high it is hardly likely that the Fed will go ahead and appease everyone. Hope first has to be brutalized before Bernanke comes in to save the day and make the Fed appear like the 401(k)night in shining armor.

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Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:09 | 2341425 Agent P
Agent P's picture

UMich misses and the OSU fans go wild!

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:32 | 2341534 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

Have you ever seen the girld from University of Michigan?  Yuck!

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 11:51 | 2341851 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I'm not trying to be patronizing, but only posting the following because a few people didn't understand it the last time an article about the UofM Consumer Confidence Survey came out:


This survey of "consumer confidence" is not in any way related to the geographic area near the University of Michigan. It's a national survey. Those familiar with statistics can verify that if statistical sampling (surveying/polling) is done with the proper methodology, even using a random sample of as few as 1,200 or so people surveyed can accurately capture, within a very tight margin of error (+/- 3% or so), the mood of the entire consumer base in the U.S. (such polls are used to predict election outcomes, usually producing results that are within the actual vote within 2 or 3%).



University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - United States

Assesses consumer confidence regarding personal finances, business conditions and purchasing power based on hundreds of telephone surveys. Especially valued for its quick turnaround, the University of Michigan Confidence survey is considered one of the foremost indicators of US consumer sentiment. The survey polls a smaller sample of consumers and is less established than the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.

Declining consumer confidence levels usually accompany any fall income or wages and precede drops in consumer spending. A low or falling U Mich Sentiment value is considered an early indicator of an economic downturn. As a result, investors, retailers and traders alike all watch the figure for insight into the general health of the economy. UMich figures have recently preceded turning in overall GDP.

The headline figure is calculated by subtracting the percentage of unfavorable replies from the percentage of favorable replies.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:11 | 2341437 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Better luck next time.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:22 | 2341490 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I would give more credibility to this index if it were from a more reputable university. I'm sorry to say it, but University of Michigan is neither an Ivy nor a top tier institution among the ranks of MIT, Stanford or Berkeley. I simply cannot give credibility to an institution of such modest calibre.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:28 | 2341506 jcaz
jcaz's picture

And yet, errors in your prose-  imagine that?

Try the "edit" button and further impress us, MDB....


Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:36 | 2341544 Sauk Leader
Sauk Leader's picture


Thank god you are sounding more like yourself. Yesterdays comment about the president reining in spending almost made your sarcasm obvious. Perhaps you are Daniel Day Lewis prepping for a role as a Yale economic theory professor or something in which I think you are a shoe in for the Academy Award. Bravo MDB. However, could you please upgrade your image, that looks like MS word 2000 clip art. Here are some suggestions. 


Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:41 | 2341565 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea MDB upgrade that community college lookin icon, its lame.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:52 | 2341612 Sauk Leader
Sauk Leader's picture

That first +1 was from me. I love it. Now pay more taxes.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 11:06 | 2341667 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



I've managed so many MIT and Stanford "fuds" (PhDs who have no interpersonal skills whatsoever) that it's just laughable that they cling to the illusion that the "reputation" of their school really makes a difference.

Nice new avatar, tho, MDB.  You've really outdone yourself.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 11:38 | 2341792 Rock the Casbah
Rock the Casbah's picture

I'm waiting with baited breath to go Cultural Revolution on these ivy league dumb asses - can't wait......

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:13 | 2341442 Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

what part of "4 buck gas" don't they understand?

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:20 | 2341476 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Well, they do understand 4 buck house in parts of Motown...

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:22 | 2341484 peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture

And Thats in the good  hoods ..!

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:21 | 2341478 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Don't worry they will blame the high prices on some brown people over in the middle east as Ben begins the next round of QE.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 20:13 | 2343041 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

And all perfectly orchestrated by the Fed to bring on QE3 at the optimum moment for Obummer's reelection; they're playing the sheeple like violins here.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:14 | 2341443 peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture

what did you expect from a  broke state.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:33 | 2341536 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

U Mich....when theyre not polling 1,000 people on the phone, theyre doing handstand chugs from a keg.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:51 | 2341600 Sauk Leader
Sauk Leader's picture

Why did Michigan change their field from grass to artificial turf?
To keep the Michigan cheerleaders from grazing at half time.

How many University of Michigan students does it take to change a light bulb?
Two. One to do it and another one to claim they did it just as well as any Ivy League school.

How do you get a University of Michigan graduate off of your doorstep?
Pay him for the pizza.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:15 | 2341448 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Bullish...for treasuries

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:15 | 2341451 spentCartridge
spentCartridge's picture

Off topic

Iceland government forgives mortgage debt!

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:18 | 2341463 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

QE on....

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:19 | 2341470 CH1
CH1's picture

A stimulous check for every American... delivered in late October!

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:22 | 2341483 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



...delivered with a sharpie specially-made for voting.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:29 | 2341521 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

only axelrod knows when QE3 will be announced (though Bill Gross likely knows where it will be directed) just in time for the foreclosure floodgates to open in the fall

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:29 | 2341519 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Stimulus? For what? Economy 100% confirmed recovered.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:29 | 2341514 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

The "opinion" fo a 1000 people or so, is enough for the robots to sell! Cheap pingpong for the masses! +180 yesterday -x today, who gives a shit!? I DON"T!

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:32 | 2341527 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, like that fund chick who closed shop said 'Im not trading in this environment until sanity returns and people are removed from govt and Wall St'. 

I'll just sit and watch the lunatics play until it all collapses on all their heads one day soon.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:36 | 2341539 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OMG a .5 MISS! Sound the klaxons thruout the land! QE be a'comin!!


Fri, 04/13/2012 - 11:14 | 2341709 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Why should people be optimistic? The Fed continues to screw around with interest rates, The Administration can't stop screwing around with mortgages and housing, etc., etc.

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