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Tyler Durden's picture

Beyond Today





There is the danger of walking out of today's session with a sense of relief for equity traders, because that insane move was "just" a fat finger or at least it is the word in the media and on the street. There are three things to keep in mind: 1/ the market was down 3% already when the alleged input error happened 2/ we are still in the middle of a major unresolved currency crisis threatening all of Europe and that led to deadly riots already 3/ the financial industry does not need any bad press right now and detractors just got some more ammo to push tough regulation. - Nic Lenoir, ICAP




naufalsanaullah's picture

I-L-L-I-Q-U-I-D-I-T-Y...





I'm hearing rumors of computer/exchange problems being blamed for intensifying today's selling. Suggests to me the possibility of quant funds forced deleveraging, as momo unwinds + program trading = forced quant unwinds, and even further illiquidity, intensifying the positive feedback loop. More as it comes, if it comes...




Tyler Durden's picture

Daily Credit Summary: May 6 - Knife Catching Day





Spreads exploded wider today across all markets as contagion from Europe smashed risk appetite everywhere as broad-based macro/index selling/hedging was clearly in play. So many record-breaking moves and breathless dealers that we are a little stunned still by today's action but to be clear, credit was leading equity down out of the gate, did not crash and bounce anything like stocks late afternoon, but closed at 10-month wides in IG and six month wides in HY.




naufalsanaullah's picture

Shades of April 4, 2000





Yes, there is a historical analogue for today.




Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: The Cover-up: BP's Crude Politics And The Looming Environmental Mega-Disaster





We have been informed by sources in the US Army Corps of Engineers, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and Florida Department of Environmental Protection that the Obama White House and British Petroleum (BP), which pumped $71,000 into Barack Obama's 2008 presidential campaign -- more than John McCain or Hillary Clinton, are covering up the magnitude of the volcanic-level oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico and working together to limit BP's liability for damage caused by what can be called a "mega-disaster." Obama and his senior White House staff, as well as Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, are working with BP's chief executive officer Tony Hayward on legislation that would raise the cap on liability for damage claims from those affected by the oil disaster from $75 million to $10 billion. However, WMR's federal and Gulf state sources are reporting the disaster has the real potential cost of at least $1 trillion. Critics of the deal being worked out between Obama and Hayward point out that $10 billion is a mere drop in the bucket for a trillion dollar disaster but also note that BP, if its assets were nationalized, could fetch almost a trillion dollars for compensation purposes. There is talk in some government circles, including FEMA, of the need to nationalize BP in order to compensate those who will ultimately be affected by the worst oil disaster in the history of the world.




Tyler Durden's picture

RIP Euro: 1999-2010





A moment of silence please, as we all enjoy Bernanke's panic.




Tyler Durden's picture

Are The Historic Brown/Kaufman And Sanders Amendments About To Pass, Ending Wall Street's Hegemony?





In a historic development, we may be on the verge of the Senate passing amendments that will bite off the Wall Street hand that has fed the Senate, Congress and all politicians for decades. The Huffington Post reports that "Harry Reid will make sure that an amendment to break up megabanks and cap their size comes up for a vote, the Senate majority leader said. He added that he was leaning heavily toward voting for the amendment, cosponsored by Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Ted Kaufman (D-Del.). Reid will also support an amendment from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) that will authorize an audit of the Federal Reserve." In an ironic twist, the president may be the last party remaining to protecting Wall Street's interests, as democrats wholesale turn their back on their former masters. Should the critical Brown/Kaufman and Sanders amendments pass it will be game over not only for Goldman Sachs and the Federal Reserve, but to the entire financial oligarchic/kleptocratic status quo that has controlled this country for decades. The next inevitable logical progression is the passage of the McCain amendment which essentially returns Glass-Steagal. Should that happen, look for all fin stocks to trade at about 25% of their current levels.




Tyler Durden's picture

Early March Lows Taken Out, As Carry Inverts





What is uglier than a bunch of momentum chasing quants fleeing in "orderly" fashion from a burning theater: a bunch of prop carry traders doing the same, especially once they have been informed the margin calls are coming in. Now that the fate of the eurozone is sealed, save for 6-9 months of political rhetoric as those responsible for the single biggest monetary failure in recent decades finally realize the folly of their "all for one, and one for all" ways, the question of how Bernanke will export dollar weakness abroad, and thus boost the Export-led renaissance, becomes very glaring. We expect American politicians to learn nothing from the European debacle, and to double their efforts for a CNY revaluation as US exports now become even more expensive, which will achieve nothing, but merely antagonize China potentially to its breaking point, and throw the world in a trade vacuum. But at least China has the worker, the resources and the middle class to beself sustainable for much, much longer than the US possibly can. And don't forget all those Treasuries that China can and will sell in the open market. The endgame is approaching.




RANSquawk Video's picture

RANsquawk US Afternoon Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 06/05/10





RANsquawk US Afternoon Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 06/05/10




Tyler Durden's picture

The New New Normal? Futures Take Out 1,150, Carry Crumbles, Gold On Verge Of $1,200





Was this it for the bear market rally? The new new normal, same as the old normal: Risk and Carry off, Gold on...Meanwhile, the panic over at the Eccles building can be felt all the way in Europe.




Tyler Durden's picture

Activity In ECB's "Discount Window" Jumps On Greekman Brothers Redux





In the past two weeks, borrowings under the ECB's "discount window" equivalent, the Marginal Lending Facility, have jumped substantially. Where on April 25th just E2 million was outstanding, it has subsequently jumped all the way to 2.6 billion on May 3 (yes, for Americans these sums are paltry, but for European, and especially Greek banks, half a billion could mean the difference between life and death). And with the O/N-3M repo spread blowing out, the ECB could be once again becoming the lender of first and last resort. One of the rumors for the jump in borrowings has been that Greek Piraeus bank was on the verge in the last days of April after a full blown bank run, and only a last-minute MLF borrowing helped it stave off bankruptcy. The MLF dropped to E1.3 billion yesterday, although this could be merely a liquidity shift from one source to another. Keep a close eye on the ECB's daily MLF report to determine if there is a backdoor bailout occurring of one of the more troubled European banks. We will also provide details later on today, when the data becomes available, on whether the Fed has disclosed any FX swaps having taken place in the prior week.




Tyler Durden's picture

Charlie Gasparino Says Goldman Settlement To Be Between $1 and $5 Billion





“I’ve been talking to lawyers and rival CEOs just trying to ballpark it at this point…there is no number, but people are ball parking, and these are CEOs and lawyers, between $1 and $5 Billion. And that’s what they are saying. And these aren’t people that are necessarily trying to keep negative stuff on Goldman Sachs. These are both analysts that are positive on the stock, but those are the numbers that they are talking about.”

“And it depends on a lot of things. For all I know, the SEC can come in and say give us $100,000,000 if Lloyd Blankfien gets fired. That’s a possibility.”




Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: ECB Recommends Tight Limits On Greek Cash Transactions





Listening to ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet who said default is not an option for Greece while the single currency attacked the $1.27 figure at the moment when he called it a safe store of value I cut my observations of the ECB council meeting here. Mr. Market seems to have a differing opinion. BTW, interest rates are on hold despite the latest uptick in inflation to 1.4%.

I stumbled upon this ECB legal document that runs to the contrary and strangely has found no media attention.

While promoting the Euro as a safe store of value the ECB opts for tight limits on cash transactions in Greece, limiting the role of cash Euros as a medium of exchange, one of the fundamental functions of a currency.

Stating the objective to limit tax evasion the ECB recommends that all business transactions above €3,000 and all consumer expenses above €1,500 Euros shall be paid for in all other forms than cash. - Toni Straka, The Prudent Investor




naufalsanaullah's picture

Sell in May and go away?





Another year is in the books here at the University of Michigan, but European leaders are getting no such rest, as the sovereign debt crisis contagion is spreading from Greece and the periphery into the core (sov debt crises are proving to be more contagious than chicken pox). As we speculated, the Greek “bailout” is merely buying time for the inevitable– default, whether structured/planned or not. Meanwhile, Euro nations with similar debt and deficit proportions to output are coming under pressure as well, namely the rest of the PIIGS nations.




Tyler Durden's picture

John Taylor: "Dead Man Walking...The Euro Is Finished"





Europe is dead. The European nations are the victors, and the way ahead will be one hell of a mess. Without taxing and borrowing power, there is no way to square the inter-euro trade balances between the countries except ‘internal devaluation,’ which means years of deflation and poverty for the voters – and protestors – of the deficit countries. Our pencil pushers and Excel experts have made lots of projections on the Greek situation and can find almost no possibility of success. The EU/IMF team projects Greek debt at 149% of GDP when this rescue ends, but their nominal GDP estimates are incredibly optimistic when salaries and jobs are cut dramatically. We see a 20% decline over the three years as a good outcome, the debt would stay the same, and the ratio goes to 186% of GDP. Almost like Japan, but foreigners own the Greek debt – no way! This rescue reminds us of Bob Rubin’s rescue of Russia in July 1998, which lasted about one month before the whole house of cards collapsed. We knew that one couldn’t work, and this one can’t either. It might take longer, but the euro is finished. Goodbye euro, hello drachma, peseta, lira, and the others. The world had hoped for more, none more than the Europeans themselves, but now we are all left to pick up the pieces. - John Taylor, ultra EURUSD bearish, and thus very rich, CIO of F/X Concepts, world's largest FX hedge fund.




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