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University Of Michigan Finds Hope Surges The Most Since June 2009

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With the market enjoying a 30% below average volume rally this morning, as European debt spreads pull back to where they were 2 days ago, the University of Michigan survey of Consumer Confidence Sentiment rose to 64.2 from 60.9 beating expectations of 61.5. The bond-less equity market managed a short-lived rally in this wonderful news until a few realities hit home. Contextually, this number remains 25% below its average of the last 33years, the 3 month change in the outlook (or 'hope') sub-index jumped the most since June 2009, and 5Y inflation expectations are as low as they were Q1 2009 (and the second lowest print ever). As always, regarding the headline figure is often misleading as the reality of these surveys is often far more interesting and realistic under the surface.

UMich Sentiment remains 25% below its long-run average - hardly a positive.

As Hope jumps the most in the last 3 months since June 2009.

And 5Y inflation expectations are 1 point off all-time lows and as disinflationary as they were during Q1 2009.

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:30 | 1869770 sabra1
sabra1's picture

well, maybe next time they'll ask the 99%!

hey ma! your little general is first!!!

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:47 | 1869824 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

All this monkey shine hopium shit is making The Matrix look like The Sound of Music.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 13:24 | 1870247 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

Abandoned hope all ye who enters here...

Tis but a momentary relief soon to be vanquished as we cross the lake of debt.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:32 | 1869772 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Theyre hoping for what? Record high jump for 'Divine Intervention'?

Another meaningless poll.

 

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:02 | 1869887 Albertarocks
Albertarocks's picture

University of Michigan has $8.7 billion dollars invested in the stock market.  "Another meaningless poll" might even be an understatement.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 14:40 | 1870487 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Fuck the mich poll. Hopium to go extinct, like the weasel wolverine.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:31 | 1869775 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

HOPIUM...BITCHEZ.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:48 | 1869834 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Yep...but Hopium has got you 1500 Dow points since 10/4.  It may be Hopium, but it appears to be damn good Hopium.           

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:49 | 1870090 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

 

xlnt shit, maynard

the survey asked:

Q:  what kina recession would you prefer, here?

the respondents chose:  i hope it is another one we can sucessfully print our way out of!

 

 

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:31 | 1869780 Jason T
Jason T's picture

This can't be serious.  Inflation expectations low???  I haven't been this concerned about a bank shutdown since Oct. 2008 as well.  

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:41 | 1869807 xcehn
xcehn's picture

CRAZY.  The sheeple will have the collective deer in the headlights look when it all (suddenly in their view) goes to hell.  And for today, Italy is A-OK, again.  LOL   Seriously, it's past due time to withdraw a stash of money for the 'mattress.'  The hopium is almost all gone.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:19 | 1869968 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

more like a deer front of train headlights

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:32 | 1869782 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

this is hope that the obama/left wing nightmare is over

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:40 | 1869805 pods
pods's picture

The hope that we will all wake up with tubes sticking out of us with a nasty ass machine staring us in the face?

pods

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:34 | 1869784 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Obamanomics...regardless of what the numbers are, just fudge them and stamp with "hope" and spew a bunch of bullshit from a teleprompter and watch the sheeple beg for more!

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:34 | 1869785 SMG
SMG's picture

The entire global economy has become a Reality Distortion Zone (tm).  When will the madness end?

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:35 | 1869788 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The headlines are all that matters. Don't dare encourage any bare minimum of effort in analyzing the underlying data or facts/truths.

Dewey Defeats Truman.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:41 | 1869809 pods
pods's picture

It's got electrolytes!

pods

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:36 | 1869791 Belarus
Belarus's picture

Could be the market is discounting the fact that S + P is selling at 11x earnings, with the Fed never having intentions of lifting interest rates as they have boxed themselves in, and that the mother of all stimulus' continues and will continue: 1.5 trillion in UNFUNDED deficit spending. 

Betting on a meaningful downturn at this point is a tough bet. And it will only take a few days for the market to wake up in a few days to realize that the best case downside scenario is 20%--which basically barely wipes away the mother of all rallies in Oct. While the best case scenario will send the S + P 500 over the next year or two to well beyond it's historical high. 

Yeah, I know, someone's got to play the contrarian around here with the hatefest for anything stock related. But even currency wizards believe owning things like railroads is a great call, and the race to the bottom continues regardless of europe.....

In other words, it's a good time to think beyond the few days ZH narrows its focus on methinks, and look beyond the noise. Go long inflation related investments and if you need to sleep at night hedge with puts that'll protect an overall downdraft.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:02 | 1869830 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Go long steamboat manufacturers, because the stuff people need has got to get to the ports, even in a weak economy, with tepid and diminishing incremental demand and pricing power.

I follow Irving Fisher's investment newsletter, and while not perfect in his forecasting, I've done pretty well listening to him over the last 3 years.

 

- Sent from my Royal Signet No. 10 Typewriter with 14" Carriage -

 

p.s. It's funny how one man's 11x earnings can be another man's 20x earnings, with few if any corporations cooking their books or relying on one off tax/accounting benefits, especially against the backdrop of the currency devaluation/race-to-the-bottom trade, with currency markets being very stable long term, with little to no chance of sudden, nasty swings, in what's universally agreed upon as a very healthy, robust global economy, with little private sector or sovereign debt, and not a snowball's chance in hell of a worsening macroeconomic situation exacting a toll on corporate profits or margins. especially since we're not at risk of a Nikkei-ization of our equity markets, or that we are at 1998 equity market levels in nominal terms or 1983 levels in inflation adjusted terms, hence not in a secular bear market.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 15:48 | 1870686 Quadlet
Quadlet's picture

I think you meant $1.8 trillion...

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:37 | 1869792 Nascent_Variable
Nascent_Variable's picture

People are idiots.

News at 11.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:38 | 1869794 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Riiiight... And I shit gold nuggets.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:38 | 1869797 fredquimby
fredquimby's picture

Speaking of Universities.....Any news on that Uni of Texas gold purchase? At what price did they jump in at again?

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:45 | 1869817 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

this is all pre-concieved......higher stock market will play through to the confidence numbers (even though there is no retail participation), sentiment numbers higher (why?), ES continues it's upward trajectory, wealth effect is fully influenced, people open 401(k) statements, feel richer, spend more money for holiday's etc etc.......I missed many components but you get the idea.........a very well coordinated scheme, will wait for more of the aftermarket close headlines, and weekend ramp news..........sally needs a new talking elmo!

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:46 | 1869819 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

So I guess we should all move to Michigan.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 14:19 | 1870413 Iwanttoknow
Iwanttoknow's picture

Sure.Got the hell out of michigan,after losing 50 K on a short sale, three years ago.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:47 | 1869820 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

dp!

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:47 | 1869826 getblue
getblue's picture

Have people realised the USA is going to devalue ?

Chinese are going to cry

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:47 | 1869827 mirac
mirac's picture

There always seems to be a data "massage" when the market seems stressed

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:50 | 1869845 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Is is spectacular that just before christmas, the woman are all back to being a size 4 and the men are all 8 inches.

That is what the best month in equities (cough) will get one. #wealtheffect.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:51 | 1869849 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Someone should tell all the OWS people, "Times are good again. Go home." /sarc

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:54 | 1869855 monopoly
monopoly's picture

It just goes on and on until it stops, but trying to fight this wonderful news will wipe you out. For the most part, shorts do not work. Just wait till reality sets in.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:54 | 1869858 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

It's called denial. When things look really scary and there's very little you can do, you can always fall back on wishing. 

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:52 | 1870094 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

 

 

 

When you wish upon a Bernank star
Makes no difference what TBTF you are
Anything your heart desires
Will come to you

If QE or ZIRP is in your dream
No request is too extreme
When you wish upon a Bernank star
As the chosen Wall Street few do

Geithner is kind
He brings to squids
Sweet taxpayer dollars
For leveraged losses squared

Like a bolt from The New York Fed
Dudley steps in and sees you through
When you wish upon a Bernank star
Jamie's dreams come true

Sack is kind
He brings to Blythe
The sweet fulfillment of
Her PM suppression stride

If front running or quote stuffing is in your dream
No request is too extreme
When you wish upon a Bernank star
As the chosen Wall Street few do

Like a bolt from The New York Fed
Brian Sack steps in and sees you through
When you wish upon a Bernank star
Red Shield dreams come true

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:56 | 1869863 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

is that hope or hopium?

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:08 | 1869914 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Hope?  I believe this kind of hope is referred to as: "Sysiphean Hope."

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:23 | 1869979 Sunshine n Lollipops
Sunshine n Lollipops's picture

U of M Consumer Confidence Sentiment:

A Poll You Can Believe In.

 

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:25 | 1869984 quacker
quacker's picture

 

An absolute shitstorm of indices, measures, gauges, government statistics, mainstream economists, media whores, all dedicated to completely bedazzling just about everybody into believing the thing they’re looking right at, there it is right in front of them, they’re looking right at it and yet the shitstorm tells them that the thing they are looking at is not what it is.

Not s single net job in the last decade. Never happened before. We had millions of more jobs in 1940 than in 1930. Millions more in 1980 than 1970. The shittiest decades have seen millions of jobs created.

And now, in the era of free trade agreements, outsourcing and yes we can hopeium bullshit, we don’t have a single net job. Not a one.

Completely and totally unprecedented. Something different is afloat of monumental proportions, literally a rearranging of a nation’s economic structure – extracting the very heart of a people’s well being and offshoring it and transferring into the hands of a small group of elite.

And through it all a blizzard, an absolute shitstorm of information telling us things are getting better and better, all the while the real situation on the ground is continually getting worse and worse.

Some day reality and the shitstorm must reconcile, and it won’t be pretty.

Violence draweth near.

 

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:28 | 1869998 Bear
Bear's picture

Halloween was good... happy days are here again.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:37 | 1870030 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

You know the pump has just begun... The next 6 weeks are going to be an all out assault on the Sheep. Starting tommorow the msm is going to force every EBT toting person, every squatter, every unemployed American, every bankrupt buisness owner, every underwater homeowner to find a way to make it happen. The pressure will be enourmous on people but it doesn't matter, take your prozak, be an American and just get your sorry asses out there and make it happen...Your country is counting on you...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2MFducncsg

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 13:06 | 1870165 Bear
Bear's picture

Not bad ... almost 29 million hits

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 13:10 | 1870170 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

We live in a headline society - no one actually "comprehends" anymore, never mind reads.

If I was a rich person, I'd LOVE what is going on right now!  My taxes aren't, and will not, get raised.  Because of the plight of the commoner, the prices of shits are going down allowing me to buy up stocks and inventory on the cheap (rememer what Willard Romney said when asked about recessions: "Great opportunity to buy!").

I was pretty confident in my 3 team teaser with the Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, and Kansas City.  And guess what happened? Thanks to KC shitting the bed at home to a winless Dolphin team, I crapped out.

So will the American people.  I just hope it happens soon.  The world is getting more hostile by the day.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 13:51 | 1870336 mind_imminst
mind_imminst's picture

Who do they survey? I don't know one close friend or aquaintence that is truly positive about the economy. They are mostly hard workers so are unlikely to be laid off from their jobs, and they are conservative with their money, but they are by no means rich, and are not spending much money right now. If everyone I know was interviewed for this survey, it would probably be in the 20 or 30 range. If they interviewed the nearly 50 million who are on food stamps or the tens of millions who are un-employed, or the half of the country that is underwater on their mortgages, I doubt this survey would even get close to 50. Really, who do they survey? Independently wealthy silicon valley types? Bankers? Politicians?

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 14:56 | 1870548 common_sense
common_sense's picture

11 -11- 11 , last chance for Europe...bitchez!!

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