University Of Michigan Finds Hope Surges The Most Since June 2009
With the market enjoying a 30% below average volume rally this morning, as European debt spreads pull back to where they were 2 days ago, the University of Michigan survey of Consumer Confidence Sentiment rose to 64.2 from 60.9 beating expectations of 61.5. The bond-less equity market managed a short-lived rally in this wonderful news until a few realities hit home. Contextually, this number remains 25% below its average of the last 33years, the 3 month change in the outlook (or 'hope') sub-index jumped the most since June 2009, and 5Y inflation expectations are as low as they were Q1 2009 (and the second lowest print ever). As always, regarding the headline figure is often misleading as the reality of these surveys is often far more interesting and realistic under the surface.
UMich Sentiment remains 25% below its long-run average - hardly a positive.
As Hope jumps the most in the last 3 months since June 2009.
And 5Y inflation expectations are 1 point off all-time lows and as disinflationary as they were during Q1 2009.