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Unprecedented Global Monetary Policy As World Trade Volume Craters
With the IMF cutting its global growth forecasts and signs of slowing evident in the dramatic contraction in World Trade Volume in the last few months, it is perhaps no surprise that the central banks of the world have embarked upon what Goldman Sachs calls an 'Unprecedented Alignment of Monetary Policy Across Countries'. Our earlier discussion of the European event risk vs global growth expectations dilemma along with last night's comments on the impact of tightening lending standards around the world also confirms that this policy globalization is still going strong and is likely to continue as gaming out the situation (as Goldman has done) left optimal CB strategy as one-in-all-in with no benefit to any from migrating away from the equilibrium of 'we all print together'. Perhaps gold (and silver's) move today (and for the last few months) reflects this sad reality that all your fiat money are belong to us, as nominal prices rise (but underperform PMs) in equities (and risky sovereigns and financials).
While the 25 year low in Baltic Dry is explained away by the simple over-supply of ships (as if that is a good thing) with little thought as to the near-record high inventories of Iron Ore and so on around the world, the reality as shown above is a world in which trade volumes are down dramatically. The 3 month rate of change has turned negative and that trend is accelerating as the 6 month average is about to turn negative - a very weak signal.
Goldman Sachs:- The 'Globalization' Of Monetary Policy
- In this daily, we draw attention to the intensification of monetary policy coordination around the world.
- We show that the magnitude of policy synchronization has been unprecedented since the financial crisis...
- ...and it is still going strong in spite of some divergence across and within EM and DM central banks.
In their Daily strategy report Goldman draws attention to the intensification of monetary policy coordination around the world. We formally assess the magnitude of policy synchronization across countries and show that it has risen to unprecedented levels since the financial crisis and its aftermath. The recent trend of policy ‘globalization’ is still going strong in spite of some divergence across and within EM and DM central banks.
The Financial Crisis Prompted an Unprecedented Alignment of Monetary Policy Across Countries...
There are two basic kinds of monetary policy alignment: explicit coordination of actions (when central banks actually agree to carry out plans simultaneously) and coordination that occurs implicitly (when central banks respond to their own cycles, which are often synchronized, and the monetary impulse from others). Since the Fall of 2008, we have seen both in practice, which is not common by historical standards. We assess the magnitude of this global policy alignment with the following considerations:
Recent coordination agreements are unprecedented. In previous episodes---like at the end of the Bretton Woods system and through the late 1970s---the US did engage in coordinated actions with Japan, Germany, and other countries to fight inflation, but these pacts fell very short of recent actions. To name a couple of examples, the coordinated rate cuts by six major central banks in October 2008 were completely unprecedented (with the closest case being an isolated same-day cut announced by the Fed and the ECB in 2001); so have been measures aimed at liquidity provision, such as the exchange rate swap lines the Fed established with 14 countries back in 2008 (and as recently as in November 2011 with BoC, BoE, BoJ, ECB, and SNB).
There are tradeoffs. As with other types of international macroeconomic policies, central banks face tradeoffs when engaging in coordinated actions. A common scenario is that of a monetary expansion in one country that causes a real depreciation of the domestic currency and erodes the competitiveness of another. While this may boost domestic output temporarily, possible side effects include inflation, capital outflows, and distortions across sectors in the economy. In a context of global turmoil, and especially for open economies, the tradeoff becomes particularly cumbersome. In that case, coordination becomes the optimal strategy to alleviate funding stresses, liquidity problems, credit crunches, and similar pressures. Since many of the shocks in recent years have been large and global in nature, the tradeoff has been mostly resolved in that direction.
Academic answers are now more favorable to coordination. In fact, the broad conclusion from the early academic literature on this topic was that the gains from coordination were secondary at best (and certainly behind those from macroeconomic stabilization). But academic models eventually became more realistic, by explicitly incorporating issues like uncertainty, spillover effects, structural asymmetries, and idiosyncratic productivity shocks. The issue is often framed in the realm of game theory, where countries are pictured as players which weight the size of trade externalities, their perceived views of the world, their previous record of honoring agreements, and the advantages or disadvantages of committing to future actions. Generally speaking, factors like interdependence, coincidence in business cycles, the commonality of shocks, and heightened uncertainty, make it optimal for central banks to move farther away from inward-looking policies, especially during periods of global turmoil.
We assess global coordination trends using statistical methods. A formal yet simple way of assessing the degree of monetary policy alignment across countries is to pinpoint the components that best describe their overall behavior. We do this by running principal component analyses over policy interest rates, which allows us to measure the proportion of the variance in the data that can be explained by the first common driver, the second common driver, and so on. When the proportions attributed to the first few components are higher, it means that the underlying variable (in this case, the policy rates) are more synchronized or aligned with each another. The method also gives the weights that would be given to each country to form each component (which are often called the “loadings”). We focus our results on the proportion of variance captured by the first two components across different samples, but also look at the dispersion of those weights (measured by their standard deviation). Less dispersion means that all countries are proportionately contributing to the global trend. We ran our results for three samples: a group of six DM central banks which have recently engaged in explicitly coordinated policy actions (Canada, Euro area, Japan, Switzerland, UK and US), a broader group of DM countries (20 or less, depending on data availability), and a broad group of EM countries (25 or less, covering LatAm, Asia, CEEMEA, depending on data availability).
What we found is strong evidence that the financial crisis prompted a synchronization of monetary policy that is unprecedented at the global level. In comparison to the historical data, during the period Sep 2008-Dec 2011, the primary components have accounted for a much larger share of the variance in policy rates. The percentages are now 96%, 93%, and 86% for the G6, DM, and EM samples---which are substantially higher from their previous levels of 87%, 74%, and 75%, respectively. The proportion explained by the first component alone increased by 15, 30, and 16 percentage points, in each case. Moreover, the dispersion of the weights for this component more than halved in the recent period. Such dynamics are rarely observed in the data, and reflect the explicit and implicit policy alignment with which most central banks responded to the crisis and its aftermath. Of course, unconventional policies to provide liquidity or further ease monetary conditions, in addition to the currency swap agreements, further strengthen the fact that policy coordination has reached historical highs.
...Which Is still Strong in Spite of Some Divergence Across and Within EM and DM Central Banks
In a recent Global Economics Weekly, Kamakshya Trivedi and Stacy Carlson drew attention to the trends that followed the ‘Great Easing’ of 2008-09. As they highlighted, the normalization of policy rates that coincided with fiscal tightening is likely to turn into a renewed bout of monetary easing during the rest of 2012. In the global spectrum, this will likely be true for most economies, with the exception of countries whose commodity exposure makes them more resilient to a softening in growth, those which are reaching the limits of easing, and those which face diverging inflation expectations or higher inflation pass-through from currency depreciation.
On that side of the spectrum are countries like Colombia, whose central bank hiked unexpectedly earlier this week, while the majority of EM countries are instead closer to easing modes---especially larger economies like China and India. In turn, most DM markets are in line with the Fed’s recent extension of its conditional commitment to keep rates “exceptionally low” through late 2014, and many are likely to further expand their unconventional policies.
Our results show that the story of higher policy synchronization only partially weakens by restricting the sample to the latest period of Jul 2010-Dec 2011, which excludes the more intense segments of the crisis and the Great Recession. But the easing impulse during 2012 is likely to strengthen the alignment again. The extent to which this is true will depend on the pace and the degree of easing that countries will be able or willing to implement going forward. In the EM world, this will be visible mainly through further cuts in policy rates, but in DM, where countries are at or close to the lower bound, synchronization will probably take the form of extended liquidity support agreements or more unconventional policies.
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" 'Unprecedented Alignment of Monetary Policy Across Countries'."
Also called "Circling the wagons". Which is what you do when you're fucked.
Volume is so low is redculous.. look at Crude - http://hedge.ly/yx5qyI it cratered into 95.50 a BBL
ETF"s only thing providing intra day volume post the first 2 hour vol period.
Combined with this chart on declining world trade,
and the Baltic Dry:
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
and the harpex:
http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexVP.do
I really think economic RED ALERT is starting to flash. We'll see.
Synchronized diving.
I've been preaching it for a long time now.
Look at gasoline usage in the US...
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=wgfupus2&f=4
Last week was 7,967...so short the tire companies !!!!!!!!!!
LOL! What does the world demand look like? Who give a shit about the U.S. anymore?
The USA is currently here...
...and struggling to realign with the rest of the world somewhere near here...
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Nice visual, if only the sheeple were that asute HH.
Has the BDI evaporated yet?
I love it. Evans wants to blow a bigger capital gains bubble.
Good luck Charlie!
And countries after USA liberated them are here:
http://www.afunnystuff.com/pictures/Funny-pictures/Overweight-donkey-car...
Take a sniff...me thinks that link has a virus.
Page is safe.
http://siteinspector.comodo.com/public/reports/217090
Feb. 2, 2012, 12:05 p.m. EST
Russell run-up may be near end
by Thomas H Kee
More interestingly, a significant outperformance has occurred recently in the Russell when compared to the Dow. In recent days money flows have been moving out of the more conservative and dividend-paying Dow, and into the Russell. At no time was that more apparent than in the last 30 minutes of trading on Wednesday. Clearly, investors have a higher appetite for risk right now, but something else exists which is important to understand. There has been a steady progression to this risk-on trade, and the conclusion raises an important question.
Progression of the risk-on trade:
4. Eventually, money looked for a home in second-tier tech names, but that lasted only for a minute because the money flow suddenly moved to the Russell. That is where it is focused today.
All the while, the ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury, or /quotes/zigman/494682/quotes/nls/tbt TBT -0.07% , the 2x short ETF based on the long-term bond, remains 7.5% below where it was at the beginning of December. If the risk-on trade was widespread through Smart Money investors as well, one would expect Treasury bonds to sell off. Interestingly, that did not happen. Instead, Treasury bonds have held firm in the face of this risk-on rotation.
Furthermore, this risk-on rotation has been on light volume, and if the late-day action from Wednesday is any indication, it may be the same money chasing different equity-based assets in search of alpha. Not in all cases, but in many, big money seems to still be interested in low-yielding and almost fruitless Treasury bonds, and that tells me this rally will not hold for long.
In addition, if the risk-on trade started with conservative plays, and it has since progressed to the highest beta and most risky class in the Russell 2000 small-cap index, the risk-on rotation may also soon come to an end. No one in the media seems to believe it, but the writing is on the wall.
AUTHOR DISCLOSURE: Short Russell and Dow
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/can-the-russell-run-up-last-2012-02-02
Very nice move in silver today.
'Unprecedented Alignment of Monetary Policy Across Countries'.
Like Thelma and Louise, drive off the cliff together
more at it's much easier to manipulate cratering volume markets -- $kam planet.
Real wealth is measured in Ounces.
How many ounces in a barrel of oil?
5376, but those are fluid ounces, while troy ounces are a unit of mass.
don't worry. I've been told that our economy has detached from the rest of the world, so it doesn't matter if we can't export anything.
And this is before "protectionism" has kicked in. Hat tip to "Local" sourcing trend though. Not big yet, but growing, in food but also other products and services.
Only over dead bodies of every German.
Makes no difference what the rhetoric is from Roesler and Merkel, GS is convinced they'll always have the 'control' over every major economy's money supply. The heigh point of their hubris.
Germany has gone along with every new monetary expansion so far. Complaining? yes. But they haven't actually not complied
Germans complain more with every new expansion.
I know, I recently was contracted to Germany so I work here and have to listen to those complaints.
I don't blame them. However push come to shove they are threatened by the possibility of a collapse in their export markets. That ends up motivating deals where they extend more credit and allow looser monetary policy
'However push come to shove they are threatened by the possibility of a collapse in their export markets.'
How can that happen? Is someone threating to strengthen the €? Or stop importing BMWs?
Believe what you want but the loser here is and will continue to be the USD as the reserve currency as nations get more people to question their own monetary system which is based on the $.
@Gene: the concern is if there's a Eurozone breakup that will have a direct effect as peripheral countries go back to highly discounted domestic currencies. And it would have an indirect effect on global trade as well. As Tyler points to in the article, global trade is a sick man as it is. Any earthquakes would be a threat.
As to king dollar, that is yet another more complex issue. But as we're seeing with growing Yuan swap arrangements, alternatives are materializing anyway
German exports reach record highs despite debt crisis
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,15565468,00.html
Exports to Breach $1.3 Trillion in Sales for 2011, Shrugging Off Debt Woes
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-29/german-exports-breach-eu1-trillion-sales.html
Exports Booming for German Weapons Manufacturershttp://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,773626,00.html
Yes, I fully agree with this statement.
In Germany everybody who wants to work has a work (if not highly paid), but to continue exports they have to give more credits out. It's complex issue really, but I think Merkele will have to pay for this policy in elections.
Do not, i repeat do not, forget the "hidden eurobond" masked as Target 2. Germany is doing TOO MUCH already and the BUBA must be sweatting over this VERY politically sensitive issue.
ZH has done nice covering on this particular issue and here's some charts i spotted today in another blog.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/02/bundesbank-228-billio...
It's going to be THE issue.
Eurobond issuance is clearly the goal.
Excellent article. Thanks for the link.
"What we found is strong evidence that the financial crisis prompted a synchronization of monetary policy that is unprecedented at the global level."
The mask is coming off. There are no countries, only the banks and they are all joined at the hip.
And the banks are run by the Illuminati ruling families, who in turn rule us "useless eaters" through the global banking system.
And the banks are run by the Illuminati ruling families, who in turn rule us "useless eaters"
They turned me into a useless DRINKER (not to get 'nit picky' about it though)...
There are no countries, only the banks and they are all joined at the hip.
Exactly. Countries are becoming an abstraction. But banks? They're real because they determine the fate of countries, governments and citizens.
The fourth beast is a fourth kingdom that will appear on earth. It will be different from all the other kingdoms and will devour the whole earth, trampling it down and crushing it. (Dan. 7:23)
Look: God ordered Daniel to "seal the book" because, when God gave Daniel the prophecy it was several hundred years off in the future.
Fast forward several hundred years to John and Revelation. God orders John not to seal the book, because, as Jesus and every apostle stated, the prophecy would happen very soon, within one physical generation (40 years) of Jesus on earth.
See the first and last vs. of Rev: "soon" and "quickly" would those things happen. If those modifiers indicate 2000+ years hence, then just toss the Bible in the fireplace because it has no meaning. Either Jesus came in 70AD when Rome destroyed the Hebraic temple, or Jesus and the Apostles lied.
There is no "end of time" in Scripture, but only the "time of the end" of the Mosaic/Levitical era. The OT states the physical earth goes on forever, without end.
"A time is coming and now is when those who worship will not worship on this mountain nor in Jerusalem"
"Jerusalem not built by hands"
"Say not you have Abraham as your father" (said to Pharisees who were physical descendants of Abraham)
"Your father is the devil" (unbelieving Hebrews, Pharisees/descendants of Abraham)
"Circumcision and uncircumcision mean nothing"
"The spirit of God is within you" (not outside, not in a temple)
Audience relevance can not be ignored when reading anything, including Scripture. The words "now" and "this generation" written in the 1st C AD does not/can not indicate some year 2000+ years hence.
That's an illusion. At the end of the day, banks don't have armies.
The lynchpin of the banks' sway is ultimately the fiat.
The Borgias had no trouble paying mercenaries. But what do modern banks need armies for anyway? They own the politicians. Don't need more than that to own the armies
These central bank cocksuckers know the end of the status quo is at hand. Confidence in fiat paper assets is gone & going. Bric nations are diversfying out of the dying usd. Now for sure these bought out, hypocrite bastards managing the current economic regime will not offer themselves up as the root problem. The open question is where will the blame be placed? What will the trigger be? Perhaps the easiest answer is to look at where all the aircraft carriers, subs, and war ships are focusing. And what was that? Iran, India, oil for gold? HA And they thought the lesson Gaddafi & Saddam would be well learned by other countries by now.
"When the bailout bubbles burst, the last thing they will do is take you to war when all else fails." - Gerald Celente
What will all the hoopleheads think Al?
"Yeah. Do they understand how most of what happens is people being drunk and stupid and trying to find something else to blame besides that-that makes their lives totally fucked? No, they don’t. They’re too busy stealin’ to study human nature."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLDKFjJGorY
"It is the end of the world as we know it..." REM
...But I feel fine.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRwwUZLV-IE
tick tock tick tock
Who needs a Magna Carta when you have central bankers?
This was worse than a Stolper FX recommendation. What a joke these sick bastards are.
Coordinated action, coupled with the erasure of social contracts and theft of client funds (ala MFG) leaves no safe paper harbor. There really is only one long term solution - PMs.
In the short term, as the Euro implodes, the dollar will strengthen.
So, cash and PMs.
Who woulda thought that in a world where everybody is leveraged to the gills that nobody would have any money for actual trade?
pods
Well that's Biflation for you. Hot pockets of inflation right along side the threat of impending deflationary collapse. All the distortions are courtesy of decades of lose monetary policy and trying to reflate burst bubbles with "reflation" . Some bubbles are deflating while they rush to reflate others
Caviar Emptor
IMHO, their will be NO deflationary collapse, the PTB will print till hell freezes over to stop that, they will give us Hyper Inflation..........watch.
I forget, is this "priced in" or "bullish"?
Yes.
Trade wars just getting started, bitchez.
Inflate or die.
Once banks have their run, move into commodities.
Years ago, my very first car would start to lightly shake when it hit 55 mph. By the time it hit 70 mph it was shaking and creaking like it was reentering earth's atmosphere.
Feel that vibration? It's S&P 1325...
Ball Joints
Thank you. If I ever run into the 16 year old me - I'll let him know. Poor horny bastard.
Had a motorcycle that would shimmy a bit at 100. Past 120 it settled down again. We just have to hang together through the unstable patch :-) .
I had a car that would shake at zero mph when I was in the back seat, not even driving. Then I got old enough to move out of my parents' house.
But the big test of bank cartel control will be Greece.
Question is, will Fed eat it or somebody will go belly up?
Well, one analyst even quoted that the drop in Baltic Dry is good since it decreases freight costs - bullish for margins....
All news is good news, even bad news is good news and especially no news is good news.
The US Post Office, UPS and FedEx did not get that memo, please advise.
And the over supply of ships can be explained as thus…I only have 10 ships, I was using all 10, now I am only using 4, I have an oversupply of ships. Doesn't mean demand is NOT slowing!
They mean a load of new ships (ordered 12+ m in advance) all coming on line in Jan...
It's time for new Obama policy, "Cash for clunker ships".
Shhhh ... dont give them ideas ....
Indeed, I stand corrected…I only have have 10 ships + the 12+ m I ordered in advance, I was using all 10 + planning on using the 12+ m, I am only using 4, and plan on using 4, I have an oversupply of ships. That's better ;>\
Oil reverses and it is shouting to short ES
http://capital3x.com/think-tank/oil-and-vxx-are-screaming-but-complete-o...
I took your bait and got away immediately. That is kind of lousy fishing isn't it?
props2009 is just another spammer shilling his crappy site.
What's the last month available for that world trade data? (I'm thinking it's probably got quite a bit worse since then...)
The Financial Crisis Prompted an Unprecedented Alignment of Monetary Policy Across Countries...
The alternative would have been 1930s-style beggar-thy-neighbor policies where countries rush to devalue their currency. Without coordination every currency would be in a race to the bottom.
Yes: today it's beggar-thy-global-underclasses.
eat peas. Not the purple ones.
Good analysis.
The PTB use the common "deflation will kill us all" scare tactics. Wrong. Deflation would be beneficial to clear out the excess misallocation. Not allowing it to clear means piling on more.
They're all trying to devalue together = makes no sense. Someone has to lose eventually. It's delaying the inevitable as currency will eventually be priced to the production of a country backing it, not its consumption.
We don't need capital formation, investment and production, factories humming and people working .. don't neeed it ... just give us money printing Jews.
CO-INFLATION!
b,b,b,b,b,buuuutttt the job market is slowly healing - cause they say it is.......Go Barry!
http://news.yahoo.com/manufacturing-picks-private-job-gains-slow-0042251...
This is the pothole that becomes the sinkhole. This is the end of the economic stimulus policies. The currency isn't money.
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/
The vessel glut was caused by massive stimulus programs by China and S Korea for their shipyards in early 2009. The orders for new ships collapsed dramatically in 2008/2009 and many shipyards faced bankruptcy. So shipyards were given massive subsidies and buyers got cheap financing for ships. That explains the oversupply. Yes, there is oversupply and somebody has to pay the bill for all those useless ships.
Absolutely right.
Captain Bob
EDIT repeated previous mention of HARPEX.
The Baltic Dry Index is at an all-time low, coincidentally as the US govt ups it's war rhetoric, now calling Iran/Russia/China the biggest threats.
If China is such a big threat, why would the govt support sending our jobs to the "enemy" while having them make all of our products? The lies have no logical progression, the hallmark of a bad liar.
As regards Iran, as Cheney said, "What's our oil doing under their land?" The US govt & Zionist Israel are the world's greatest threats. How many times can they trot out the tired excuse, "We have to attack them 1st so they don't attack us 1st?"
It's time to start the next revolution in the US!
The problem is the average American can't think logically anymore. They are driven by emotion and raw animalistic impulses. The lies are indistinguishable to them.
you refer to TCT?
The capitalist will sell even the rope with which he will be hung.
Wow. Too bad we don't have any capitalists left here in the USA. Just us parasites sucking up government largesse and the bankers that own the government.
we seem to have lost topcallingtroll... where is he?
A man of his psycho-primal skills would make the ZH community rock in awe at contemplating with disdain the immensity of meteoric financial crater induced shock facing us. He would know how to unplug, pulling the rug, under the bear bugs who hug cataclysmic prescience of black hole to nowhere, by incarnating a fulgurant impregnation of salvatory vision; Messiah's redemption, where the twelfth apostle is Ron PAul, and he his messenger, a Daniel amongst tea party men.
Am I purple prose of sufficient dose to induce troll's return?
I'm doubting the connection between "global monetary policy" and "trade." One is a story told by politicians and rich folks. The other is actual behavior of billions of people.
I'll see all U zerohedge posters at the FEMA camps after the collapse (or another false flag 9/11-type attack), the start of WW3, & martial law declared!
I hear we'll all get a special wing with a pool & lounge area, & fitness center.
The Baltic Dry situation is not just about too many ships being built. There's a hell of a lot more serious implications than that. It portends bankruptcies for some of the shippers as well as the banks they owe money to. And it's certainly not only because of few more ships that are about to hit the water.
The shippers are currently only getting 5% of the revenues they were getting at the start of 2008. Are you kiddin' me? Some might ask "So the BDI has already fallen 93%, how much further can it fall". And the answer is, as always, "It can fall another 93%".
http://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.com/2012/01/bdi-big-drop-ind...
"unconventional policies"?
many of us understand that the critical "unconventional policy" was repealing glass/steagall and the "system" itself becoming "problematic" in that "aftermath"
so now this retard, whose bankster-bank helped design the repeal and has been laughing at mere mortals ever since, can stick this whole bag0'bullshit right up his own ass, and he's so good at what he does, he probably won't even hafta remove his head to do it!
my buddy's step-sister makes $68/hour on the internet. She has been without work for 8 months but last month her paycheck was $7255 just working on the internet for a few hours. Go to this web site and read more.. LazyCash9.com
"So, if ALL the other central banks decide to jump in a lake, you'll jump in too?"
The Bernank: "Yyyyyes!"
Obamarama knows he won't get re elected unless gas is under 3.00.
Wall st will make it happen
Naw, that's silly. Under $3 gas would be nice, but unless Mittens convinces people he'd DELIVER that, Obama wins.
(Mittens can't even convince most of the country he's a serious candidate.)
Again Listen to: Jim Sinclair 1_20_2012 MP3 – “Global QEIII!” http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/1/25_Jim_Sinclair_files/Jim%20Sinclair%201%3A25%3A2012.mp3