Tyler Durden's picture

In case you missed it. Markets soared on the back of possibly the darkest day in central-planning banking largesse. Gold and Silver were the biggest winners, though stocks will get all the attention we are sure. Treasuries initially sold off on the news that this was an MBS program (and mortgage spreads collapsed from already record tights) but by the close, Treasury yields had almost round-tripped to pre-FOMC levels. For the first hour or so after the news, all assets moved in sync and correlations soared across risk-assets, but as the afternoon wore on, FX carry consolidated, Treasuries retreated (and 2s10s30s fell), dragging risk lower leaving stocks up near their highs in a world of unicorns and free-money. Notably, it appeared that stocks caught up to high-yield credits' recent exuberance and then found little ability to push ahead. HYG (the high-yield bond ETF) remains notably rich to real bond prices. VIX tumbled under 14% (down almost 2 vols) but notably the term structure of vol collapsed even more - as it seemed the QuEnfinity prompted longer-term hedges to be lifted. A remarkable day in many ways as the S&P crosses over 14x P/E and AAPL over 20% of the Nasdaq-100.


Today across asset classes...


VIX term structure collapsed (not just the front-end but the longer-term also dropped notably) - see lower 2 panes with year-to-date flats in the curve...


What stopped equities' exuberance today? perhaps the catch up to high-yield credit?


or - did the drop in risk-asset support start to stagger hope? Certainly this afternoon, Treasuries and 2s10s30s (as well as FX carry) did not follow along with the excitement...


Mortgage spreads collapsed...(as low as 38.6bps at iots tights!!)


as bond yield retraced all afternoon...


but financials roared - as we assume people think they'll be selling their MBS to the Fed? Because at these levels of spread (and given the curve's flattening on the day), NIM ain't gonna be it...


Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context


Bonus Chart: Despite all this excitement - Facebook managed (drum roll please) to end down 1.2%

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sbenard's picture

Bernanke is creating an environment in which no risk is recognized. I think we call that a BUBBLE!

He needs to be hung, drawn, and quartered -- following his trial, of course!

Blasé Faire's picture

FOMC = Federally-funded One Man Crusade

veyron's picture

the big winners were the *miners*.  Check out Hecla Mining (HL): up 7% while silver was up 4%, and over the month HL is up 35% while silver up 24%

roadsnbridges's picture

Yep.  But NOK was no slouch either.

SWRichmond's picture

I have bought miners of various caps and segments over the past several years.  I have watched them in up and down markets, and I have kept them all during the recent miner slump / beatdown.  I doubled down on a number of them.

Luv me some HL, bitches.


jekyll island's picture

My mining portfolio is up $30k in the last two months.  Still great bargains like AXU, but not for long.  Don't make my mistake and try to short bonds however.  That's a loser's bet and it will be until the very end, but my crystal ball won't tell me when that will occur. 

DeadFred's picture

Think about other equities. The fool just said I'll print for as long as it takes and I'll print more if things deteriorate. Want to bet that things will mysteriously deteriorate? What a stupid, stupid thing he just did.

q99x2's picture

Apparently he plans to go Morlock before that happens to an underground city in Missouri.

asteroids's picture

This is a bank bailout. I don't expect a much of a stock market rally after this initial pop.

HedgeAccordingly's picture

... and away... 1406 last thursday 1460 today - bend em over Ben! - http://hedge.ly/QRRz7K

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ $55,000

To the moon, Alice.

You ain't seen nothin' yet.

All else will be left behind when the Gold Mothership takes off (ZH' "Gordon_Gekko").

I hope I left no one important out!

tawse57's picture

APPL is over 20% of the NASQUACK 100? That can't be good.

Dr. Gonzo's picture

If you bought most of your gold at $300 and most of your silver at $5 and have a hard time putting new cash in at these levels perhaps consider buying physical rhodium. It's a different animal than the other PM's and only for investors with strong hands however it's about $500 cheaper than gold now (it was once 8 times the cost of gold) so if their ever was a good time to add rhodium to your collection it might just be now...plus the fact that it's sweet looking. This has been a rhodium infomercial paid for by South African miners. $1150 our ass! 



roadsnbridges's picture

Iridium, bitches!

Screw these lightweights.

mick_richfield's picture

Yeah, but you just can't find any.

Canadian Dirtlump's picture

I have an osmium weight lifting set. It takes up virtually no room but I'm too weak to lift any of the weights. goddammit.

edifice's picture

Any of the platinum group metals (hell, any of the metals) are a good play, right now.

The Shootist's picture

I wouldn't go long iron unless it's in gun steel.

Jlmadyson's picture

Knew you would do this Benny and so I pushed the house purchase off until spring.

Rates better be even more magical then or the house can wait.

Thanks Ben

CPL's picture

Hold off for another year...see where the dust settles.

km4's picture

David Stockman: the capital markets are simply a branch office – branch casino – of the central bank. That's essentially what we have today.

debtor of last resort's picture

When the Bernank drops his shorts tonight, i bet he looks like a unicorn...


Flakmeister's picture

So much reckless printing....

How did it ever come to this??


I paraphrase, you can score Flak points for the original source  and just to be clear, the above is what is known as a rhetorical device, I know fucking well how we got here...

sdmjake's picture

"So much Death. What can men do against such reckless hate?"

-Theoden, King of Rohan

(and the answer to the question: "Ride out with me. Ride out and meet them" ....for death and glory)

sdmjake's picture

Thanks for letting me play... Great artists works have a way of popping up in your head even when looking at the ordinary. (Hell, i can't look at a pic of Tim Geitner without seeing WB7's version of him as a fast food worker!)

lizzy36's picture

Fours years after LEH and Bernanke now looking to blow an open ended bubble.

I LMAO when he talked about this being a "Main Street Program" - hoping that the 20% who own stocks trickle down their wealth effect to the 80% that don't.

La Price Stability = $6 a gallon gas. 

I wonder if they teach Princeton Ph.d economists about STAGFLATION, margin compression and the death of end demand. Somehow, i don't think so.

Ahhhh but all is good "open ended" = qe4evr. #booyah!

Flakmeister's picture

Peak Oil is a bitch eh??

Spastica Rex's picture

I hear there's some huge shale play almost on deck or something. They'll have to give gasoline away, it'll be so cheap. Or something.

What do you think BO is gonna do?

Flakmeister's picture

I don't think he is going to do anything, if only because there is nothing to do.... The sad thing is that even *if* there was something to do, Congress would rather obfuscate than cooperate....

People will soon realize that back in '08, HOPE really meant, I hope we find a new cheap source of oil...

Son of Loki's picture

The ECB and RBA (CB of Australia) will follow suit. House prices in Australia have been falling yoy and with "layoffs" in the resource industry and constructions ector, I'm expecting their economy to slow. If China does not pick up considerably and stimulate Aussie exports, the RBA will follow Big Ben.

BliptoP3's picture

You burn our embassies - we double the price of your food: the Empire Strikes Back.

DosZap's picture

You burn our embassies - we double the price of your food: the Empire Strikes Back.


No, too easy,and far to kind.

Embassies are just buildings,American lives, and unarmed(as in no ammo) Marines, are another.(our gubs fault).

 Egypt is forming one more Satanic alliance with Iran, I am all IN for some Sodom, and Gommorah action.

The former US  empire, can still do this.

 Call all Americans home from every Muslim, Persian, and Islamic country.

Time to play END game ball. Some folks do not deserve to live.............they qualify.

NO BOOTS on the ground,your people foot the entire bill, not economically in blood.

We need a real POTUS with balls, and not a sympathetic,pathetic sell out.

You brought it on yourself,payback should be a bitch.

The Gubs of Libia & Egypt allowed this all to happen,had this action been here, the LE community would shoot down Americans like dogs,as well they should.

rubearish10's picture

So wait, FED is "out of bullets" but "PUT" still in place because he'll buy more if lower and less if higher. Boy, it's good to be the King!

Temporalist's picture

Where's Ron Insana to explain all of this?

TrustWho's picture

Jamie is throwing a party as he is telling his minions to find all that shitty RMBS and CMBS as quickly as possible. By the end of the year, if your department holds any MBS that has more than 10% chance of defaulting, he will personally escort the whole damn department out of the building and fire them in the street.

roadsnbridges's picture

Cumon Tea Party, reject these bullshit continuing resolutions.  Make the Marxists disclose their real agenda.

F Boner.

roadsnbridges's picture

Kicking myself over dumping GPL 2 weeks ago.

GaryNeville's picture

Personally I got my ass handed to me on a plate.. When the DJ popped 100 points I saw weakness and got balls to the wall short - then it popped another 100....

Only good thing is I'm not stopped out yet!   : /

I think this is a remarkable day in so many ways.. But what has Bernanke left now? Him and Draghi are both balls to the wall long the printing press and it'll be interesting to see if they can hold things together because if things go sour, and the markets realise they have nothing left in the locker, it could  be a wall of sellers.

Besides this, if this isnt all inflationary, I give up on everything I think I know about markets and economics........

Yours faithfully

Wounded (but not yet dead) bear

laserjock's picture

Paul Tudor Jones always got flat in front of a Fed announcement; he said it was just plain gambling otherwise. I learned that lesson last year.

BeetleBailey's picture

Gary...under the category of "misery loves compnay - but so the fuck what"...

I am short too. In FX. I own the dollar; against the Euro, Pound and Yen - and am getting creamed.

Far from being stopped out, I am even stronger in my convictions.

To wit, this email I sent to all of them;


As we all know by now, Ben Bernanke and the Fed announced Quantitative Easing "3" this afternoon, in the terms of buying Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) to stimulate the economy.

Thus, by doing this, the proverbial "cat is out of the bag".

Immediate reaction was sharp - the USD strengthened, then as the stock market reacted positively, negative to the USD...

I own the USD; against the Euro, Pound and Yen.
Some of you have all three pairs - some of you have two, and some have one pair traded.

Short term, it is not good - obviously. Short term, I cannot cash in on trades.

However, as I have annotated here to you - even this morning, the "hopium" markets - full of fluff and not much else, are way ahead of themselves.

Indeed, I had less than two minutes this afternoon to decide if I was to go long (the other way) in each pair.....tough to do when the market is in flux.
At first, it indeed looked like a "sell the news" trade, with the USD strengthening.
But, they soon returned to pre-announcement levels, and began creeping against me again.

I am reticent to join the "long party" here; go risk on, when risk is so long in the tooth. The markets have rallied on hope, the fact that no where else can you make money (see bonds, money markets and the like) so people are forced into stocks.
But....volume levels of stock buying and selling are very low. Multi-year lows in some cases.

I believe these markets are "rigged". Manipulated. Hijacked. In this election year, pumped up.

Make no mistake; the currencies I sold - all of them - are countries or regions with massive problems of their own.
For now, those problems are being ignored, and the focus is on the USD.

In my experience - my history - it tells me that this is temporary - that this will pass.
The USD will strengthen in the coming days and weeks - and I have to be strong and stay my course.

I'm doing just that.

In fact, I have put in orders to buy MORE USD against the British Pound and Euro, and am stalking second level entries beyond that.

Markets don't go straight up - and this one has gone straight up 1,000 points in the past 6 weeks.
This is why our trades are down.....but, in my opinion, not for long.

I realize this looks ugly on your Daily Confirmations. I don't like it a bit.
My job is to make money for you irrespective of the markets going up or down - but I cannot buy into this .....

It is a fact that when the stocks markets of the world correct, go down - the USD gets stronger.

I want you to look - clearly - at what is happening in the world today.
All of it.

Does it make sense at all that the stock markets are up at multi-year highs?

There is much uncertainty in the world.

Too much, for this stock market - that closed up another 200 points today - to continue going up.
Can it more? Sure...but will it - now - after all this - and now that "QE3" has been revealed?

My gut says no - and if so, not much more. All three sold currencies have huge problems.
The market will come back to reality - probably sooner than I think.

Therefore, I am drawing a line in the sand here; I am sticking to my guns, and staying the course, at the risk of losing the faith and confidence of some of you - some, who were used to banking money daily for them in years past, and not receiving emails like this.

I am staking my reputation on it - my future.

That is how strongly I feel about it.

stocktivity's picture

Logic doesn't work anymore...it's rigged. What part of that don't you get?

SpeakerFTD's picture

Isn't the ugly endgame now one where MBS eventually trade inside Treasuries?      Anything to prevent MTGSPRD from printing negative?