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In Upwardly Distorting The Economy, Has "Global Warming" Become Obama's Best Friend?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Back in early February, Zero Hedge was among the first to suggest that abnormally warm temperatures and a record hot winter, were among the primary causes for various employment trackers to indicate a better than expected trendline (even as many other components of the economy were declining), in "Is It The Weather, Stupid? David Rosenberg On What "April In January" Means For Seasonal Adjustments." It is rather logical: after all the market is the first to forgive companies that excuse poor performance, or economies that report a data miss due to "inclement" weather. So why should the direction of exculpation only be valid when it serves to justify underperformance? Naturally, the permabullish bias of the media and the commentariat will ignore this critical variable, and attribute "strength" to other factors, when instead all that abnormally warm weather has done is to pull demand forward - whether it is for construction and repair, for part-time jobs, or for retail (and even so retail numbers had been abysmal until the just released expectations meet). Ironically, while everyone else continues to ignore this glaringly obvious observation, it is Bank of America, who as already noted before are desperate to validate a QE as soon as possible (even if their stock has factored in not only the NEW QE, but the NEW QE HD), that expounds on the topic of the impact of record warm weather. In fact, not only that, but BofA makes sense of the fact why GDP growth continues to be in the mid 1% range while various other indicators are representative of much higher growth. The culprit? Global Warming.

Of course we jest, at least with that term, but wouldn't it be very ironic if it was truly unseasonally hot weather that was benefitting the biggest critic of greenhouse gas emissions? Unfortunately, while central banks can believe that have normalized mean reversion and the business cycle, weather always will get back to the mean with a vengeance. Which simply means that the past 3 months of strength will be "cash for clunkered" quite soon, as all the soaked up extra demand disappears in coming months.

To wit:

In one respect, we agree with the perma-bulls: the weather helps explain why Q1 GDP is weak despite solid monthly indicators (Chart 3). Our GDP model is tracking just 2.0% growth in the quarter. Yet, most of the important monthly indicators are consistent with higher GDP growth. For example, aggregate hours worked have grown at a 3.9% annual rate over the last three months. Add in a percentage point for productivity gains, and it suggests nearly 5.0% GDP growth. Why the disconnect? Blame it on the weather: GDP is hurt by lower energy consumption, while the rest of the economy (and most monthly indicators) benefit from lower energy costs and milder weather.

Full note from BAC:

Bulls, Bears and winter naps

  • Review: As expected, the February data continue to come in above consensus expectations.
  • Hot topic: Mild winter weather lowers energy consumption, but boosts almost every other sector of the economy.
  • Preview: Housing starts are likely to increase, but we expect existing and new home sales to edge lower.

Review: A hot economy

February was a good month for the US economy (Table 1). In the past week, retail sales, jobless claims and regional manufacturing indexes confirmed the strength already reported for employment and motor vehicle sales. As we have noted before, a variety of tailwinds continue to support growth, but should fade over the course of the spring.

Hot topic: Weathering heights

This improvement in part reflects an incredibly mild winter. Average temperatures for December, January and February were the fourth highest since national data started being kept in 1890. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there have been 45 high-impact snowstorms that affected the Northeast since 1956, including five last winter, but none this winter. While the weather has small effects on the economy most of the year, weather has big economic impacts in the winter.

Recently, perma-bull economists [ZH: !!!] have been pushing a revisionist view of the impact of a mild winter on the economy. They point out that warm temperatures mean less spending on energy, lowering overall consumption and GDP growth. As Chart 1 shows, there is some truth to this argument: in the past three months overall consumer spending has been flat in real terms, but excluding energy spending has grown at a 1.7% annual rate. Is a mild winter causing artificial weakness in the economy? And, as such will the spring bring even stronger
growth?

We strongly doubt it and we would turn the perma-bull argument on its head. While warm weather hurts energy consumption (and small sectors like the ski industry) mild winter weather stimulates most of the economy. What is striking about Chart 1 is how weak growth has been even outside of energy consumption. Households saved a lot on their energy bills this winter—with a fall in both price and quantity—and despite this windfall, non-energy consumption was weak. In our view, this confirms that consumers remain quite cautious.

A long winter’s nap

One way to gauge the broad impact of winter on the economy is to look at the seasonal fluctuations in employment. At the outset it is useful to net out the retail sector, which is dominated by hiring and firing for the holiday season. Obviously, this is not because winter weather makes it easier to shop, but because of the timing of Christmas. Indeed, like most sectors, unusually bad weather dampens the normal seasonal-surge in holiday shopping.

The rest of the economy tends to take a winter nap. As Chart 2 shows, the normal seasonal pattern for non-retail employment is about a 2.5% drop from October to January, followed by a sharp recovery in the spring and early summer. The biggest job losers in the winter are construction (down 12% from October to February), leisure and hospitality (down 4.2%) and mining and logging (down 4%). However, dividing the labor market into 15 major groups, every sector experiences a drop over the winter, with a typical decline of about 2%. Abstracting from the holiday blitz, even retail employment drops 2% in the October-to-February period.

While seasonal factors illustrate the powerful negative impact of normal winter weather, it is much harder to quantify the impact of unusual winter weather. The easiest sector to quantify is the housing market. Regression models suggest both warm weather and light precipitation have a statistically significant positive impact on housing starts. In particular, we found the mild winter has boosted starts by 5 to 10 pp per month, with the biggest impact in January. We also find smaller impacts for home sales, construction and motor vehicle sales.

Looking ahead, weather is not particularly important in the spring. Hence, even if the weather remains mild, as some forecasters predict, the official seasonally adjusted data will likely drop back to pre-winter levels.

Weather whiplash

In one respect, we agree with the perma-bulls: the weather helps explain why Q1 GDP is weak despite solid monthly indicators (Chart 3). Our GDP model is tracking just 2.0% growth in the quarter. Yet, most of the important monthly indicators are consistent with higher GDP growth. For example, aggregate hours worked have grown at a 3.9% annual rate over the last three months. Add in a percentage point for productivity gains, and it suggests nearly 5.0% GDP growth. Why the disconnect? Blame it on the weather: GDP is hurt by lower energy consumption, while the rest of the economy (and most monthly indicators) benefit from lower energy costs and milder weather.

It is likely that the markets will get the weather story wrong on the way in and on the way out. How so? In the near term, the markets seem to be over-reacting to the better February data, seeing an improving trend rather than a temporary blip. Going forward, the markets will likely expect more of the same, only to be disappointed by a second quarter payback. We are particularly skeptical about the idea that the housing market is starting to turn in earnest.

The weather has likely played a role in pushing 10-year yields out of their recent trading range of 1.80 to 2.10% (Chart 4). Some of the low rates reflected a misguided view that the Fed would move straight from Operation Twist to QE3 even with okay growth in the economy. As our discussion above suggests, it is also likely that the markets have not factored in the weather properly.

That’s all for now, I’m headed over to Bryant Park to catch some rays.

 


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Fri, 03/16/2012 - 12:54 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

AH yes, so 'global warming' is good now, because looking at the aggregate of all totaly fake 'economic data', we can say its because of the weather.

LOL, huge whatever.

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 12:54 | Link to Comment Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

But I thought Global Warming could be nothing but evil?! You can't have your cake and eat it too Obama Bin Laden.

 

http://jamesturkblog.blogspot.com/

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:14 | Link to Comment SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

 

NASA Solar Cycle Prediction

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

 

Flair Tracker

http://solarimg.org/artis/

 

Mr Cometwatch

http://www.mrcometwatch.com/

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 15:02 | Link to Comment Fedaykinx
Fedaykinx's picture

you know who else "tracked flair?"

 

that's right.

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 16:20 | Link to Comment Hard1
Hard1's picture

Is it too cold to search for a job or am I just lazy?

Sat, 03/17/2012 - 06:58 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Why get a job when you can just sell tax credits?

 

We're gonna make a fortune on this global warming crap!

 

If you really want to make a difference, you can buy our apocalypse tax credits. They're a little pricey but buying them will give you a warm feeling inside while saving a living planet that really was never in danger of dieing.

 

Use the keyword Muppets for your 10% discount.

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 17:53 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

The Sun is this year at solar max for the current 11 year sun cycle. That's why we had a mild winter. Don't count on mild winters going forward for the next 7 years as the solar max is really quite anemic.

I thank God every day for the extended deep solar minimun that started back in 2006, so many of the stupid earthlings will freeze to death in the coming years. And because it stopped the world carbon tax too. Now the NWO fucks want a global minimum tax to make up for it, fuckers.

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 19:45 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Do you always just make shit up?

Here is the Solar Data...

http://www.pmodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topic=tsi/composite/SolarConstant

Tell me how you reconcile what you said with figures 4 and 5???

 

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 22:30 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

You loose any credibility you might have had by mentioning WUWT...

By the way, the link I provided is the solar data.... moron....

Sat, 03/17/2012 - 01:56 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

Senator James Inhofe reamed Mr Rachel Maddow a new asshole in this interview telling the world about the scam;

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/#46754907

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 10:43 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Inhofe should stick to reading the Bible, he should brush up on his Isaiah...

Isaiah 24:4-6. The earth dries up and withers, the world languished and withers, the exalted of the earth languish. The earth lies under its inhabitants; for they have transgressed the laws, violated the statutes, and broken the everlasting covenant. Therefore a curse consumes the earth; its people must bear their guilt.

Edited:

Sat, 03/17/2012 - 19:52 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Like this moment when Inhofe said

“I was actually on your side of this issue when I was chairing that committee and I first heard about this. I thought it must be true until I found out what it cost.”

LMAO...

Quoting Joe Romm:

The journalist Michael Kinsley famously said, “A gaffe is when a politician tells the truth.”

 

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:14 | Link to Comment withnmeans
withnmeans's picture

Wow, looks like the Fed and their muppet banks are still keeping the Markets propped up, just enough to make it all look good. Watch out Fed, Europe is still looking to get their GOLD back, they are going broke and they want some GOLD to fall back on. Not to mention there is underlying tensions building between the Euro countries.

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 12:55 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's good until it's bad. Right now as long as it helps Obummer it is good.

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 12:57 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Obummer lastest CBS poll 41%....oops....even with all the 'GOOD NEWS' and the media 'We're feeling better about things now'...the coma patient still lies motionless on the table. 

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 12:58 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I don't have time to read what might be worthy articles. Where can I find the new, more nutritionally fortified iPadHD? I'm hungry as hell, and I don't qualify for SNAP, bitchez.

Sat, 03/17/2012 - 10:13 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

You can still get iPad2 on the cheap ... not as tasty or filling though, and no dental floss dispenser on the old one.

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:12 | Link to Comment surf0766
surf0766's picture

Interesting in PA. the 41% approval rating for the governor is viewed as bad but B.O. 41% is viewed as good ..

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 12:53 | Link to Comment Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Global Summer to be followed by Nuclear Winter. 

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:09 | Link to Comment Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

Global Summer followed by Krondratieff Winter.

 

Fixed it for you.

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 14:19 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture
Autumn changed into Winter ... Winter changed into Spring ... Spring changed back into Autumn and Autumn gave Winter and Spring a miss and went straight on into Summer ... Until one day ...
Fri, 03/16/2012 - 12:53 | Link to Comment alexwest
alexwest's picture

only idiot pays attention to what B(l)S says in monthly reports.

alx

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 12:55 | Link to Comment evolutionx
evolutionx's picture

The End is near

 

For many years it has been absolutely crystal clear to some of us (sadly a very small minority) that many major sovereign nations are bankrupt as well as the world financial system. Banks are only surviving because they, with the blessing of governments, are allowed to value trillions of dollars of toxic and worthless assets at full value. And on top of that there are more than $1 quadrillion outstanding in derivatives. These are outside the banks’ balance sheets and there are virtually no reserves against them.


More

http://www.mmnews.de/index.php/english-news/9031-deus-ex-machina

 


Fri, 03/16/2012 - 12:58 | Link to Comment jrpuffnstuff
jrpuffnstuff's picture

It's been in the 80s in Chicago in March.  He must be right.  He and Tony Rezko have a weather machine in da' back yard!

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:18 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

+1 for the avatar

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:53 | Link to Comment dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

Obummer was in Chicago today at the Palmer House.....hmmm, maybe he had them fire up that weather changy thingy someone mentions below so his visit would be more pleasant.............

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 16:02 | Link to Comment jrpuffnstuff
jrpuffnstuff's picture

That's highly likely indeed.   Only problem is Rezko's still locked up in the MCC and Big O couldn't find the instructions.  Michelle turned the thing up too damn high when visiting a few days back.  Daley likes it though... I saw him riding his bike in only his skivies this morning on the lake front trail.   GO GO CHICAGO!

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 12:58 | Link to Comment alexwest
alexwest's picture

as far as economy concerns .. here's real ahrd core facts

# California tax collecions plunged 10% feb y/y

# Ceridian diesel usage
http://www.ceridianindex.com/news/release/February-PCI-Increases/
The year-over-year growth in the PCI since May of 2011 has been wobbling slightly above zero. In December 2011, the year-over-year growth turned decidedly negative at -0.8 percent with January 2012 even worse at -2.2 percent; February year-over-year was only slightly negative at -0.2 percent.

, so all 3 recent months down y/y

# GROSS taxes , 12month sum.. grows just barely, 1% y/y (according daily treasury statement)

you decide
alx

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:02 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Not global warming Tyler, but Western hemisphere warming.

The Eastern hemisphere had record cold temperatures this year.

Global warming is a myth, fabricated by the left, fantasy to justify taxpayer funding of crony B.S. like Solyndra.

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:09 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Ah yes, and we can continue to burn all fossil fuels, not only at the current flux, but we can in fact increase the flux exponentially forever.   Yes, it's only the left is reasponsible for all this.  The economy would be booming otherwise, its just that simple, carry on troll.  Your banking overlords are glad to see you still believe the left/right bullshit.  Carry on.

 

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:51 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

You can burn what ever you want (even your own greenhouse methane gas when you fart), but the scientific evidence (that was not seasonally adjusted by the BLS or UN appointed corrupt scientists) is clear, there is no man caused global warming.

There is a normal (has been for millions of years) variation of solar cyclical activity that causes fluctuations of the temperatures on our planet Earth (Sun's diameter is about 100 times that of the Earth, so it has an impact), but "burning of fossil fuels" is not the cause of such fluctuations.

Actually, there were many periods when the Earth was much warmer than it is nowadays. These temperature fluctuations took place well before any significant effect of anthropogenic atmospheric CO2. (if CO2 is indeed the cause of global warming [as the left claims], then global temperatures should mirror the rise in CO2.)

For example:

750 B.C. to 200 B.C. cool period

Egyptians records show a cool climatic period from about 750 to 450 B.C. and the Romans wrote that the Tiber River froze and snow remained on the ground for long periods.

The Roman warm period (200 B.C. to 600 A.D.)

After 100 B.C., Romans wrote of grapes and olives growing farther north in Italy than had been previously possible and of little snow or ice

The Dark Ages cool period (440 A.D. to 900 A.D.)

In 540 A.D. the sun appeared dimmed for more than a year, temperatures dropped in Ireland, Great Britain, Siberia, North and South America, fruit didn’t ripen, and snow fell in the summer in southern Europe. In 800 A.D., the Black Sea froze and in 829 A.D. the Nile River froze.

The Medieval Warm Period (900 A.D. to 1300 A.D.)

About 900–1300 AD when global temperatures were somewhat warmer than at present. Its effects were particularly evident in Europe where grain crops flourished, alpine tree lines rose, many new cities arose, and the population more than doubled. The Vikings took advantage of the global warming to colonize Greenland, and wine grapes were grown as far north as England where growing grapes is now not feasible (too cold). The Vikings colonized southern Greenland in 985 AD during the Medieval Warm Period when milder climates allowed favorable open-ocean conditions for navigation and fishing.

The Little Ice Age (1300 A.D. to the 20th century)

At the end of the Medieval Warm Period, ~1230 AD, temperatures dropped ~4°C (~7° F) in ~20 years and the cold period that followed is known as the Little Ice Age.

Winters during the Little Ice Age were bitterly cold in many parts of the world. Advance of glaciers in the Swiss Alps in the mid–17th century gradually encroached on farms and buried entire villages. The Thames River and canals and rivers of the Netherlands frequently froze over during the winter. New York Harbor froze in the winter of 1780 and people could walk from Manhattan to Staten Island. Sea ice surrounding Iceland extended for miles in every direction, closing many harbors. The population of Iceland decreased by half and the Viking colonies in Greenland died out in the 1400s because they could no longer grow enough food there.

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 15:55 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

All regional and not global....

You got to do better than this cut and paste to convince anyone but other fools...

Hey the prediction was made in 1896, and the proof came in 1969....

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 19:09 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Re: "All regional and not global...."

Actually, the periods were global (well established facts and confirmed by oxygen isotope ratio studies of thousands of ice core samples taken from all seven continents).

You are obviously don’t know basic history of this planet (a fifth grader level), and I cannot convince an ignorant one.

Unfortunately, you are not the only one. The majority of Washington boneheads (that tax us and spend our money) and the irresponsible/ignorant ones that elect the boneheads do not know basic history of this planet too.

But it is never too late to learn something.

http://myweb.wwu.edu/dbunny/pdfs/CO2_past-climate-chg-lessons.pdf

 

 

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 19:54 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Oh, please provide evidence of your claim that the MWP was warmer globally than currently?

And please refute the 2011 paper described here

http://www.skepticalscience.com/huber-and-knutti-quantify-man-made-global-warming.html

BTW, we do agree that GW is occuring at ~0.16 K per decade?

http://www.skepticalscience.com/foster-and-rahmstorf-measure-global-warming-signal.html

I'll be back in a while...

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:02 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

This should get under LetThemEatRand's skin. Not only is global warming good business for those people close to the money ,it's also good for his beloved big government.

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:04 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I told him this morning to put his money where his mouth is and sell everything, shut down his computer, and go live in a teepee, set the example.

Sat, 03/17/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

Maybe they can harrp it back to growf ... and keep it there?

 

the greater moderation bitchez

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:03 | Link to Comment sabra1
sabra1's picture

this, this, this is an obamanation!

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:06 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Mid-70s here in Pittsburgh. For the fourth day in a row. Gonna be near or at 80 a few times over the next five days.

Never - ever - have I seen anything remotely like this in my life. BUT...it does keep getting hotter and hotter here every year, and instances such as these are becoming more and more frequest. Last year, we were in the 90s in April/May. We're becoming the northern-most southern city in Amerikkka, in more ways than just weather.

No sirree Bob. This is not the global warming for which you are looking.

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 15:14 | Link to Comment Tom Servo
Tom Servo's picture

So, your observations on weather in Pittsburgh is enough for consensus.  Al Gore would be proud.

Correlation does not equal causation kids!

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:10 | Link to Comment Squishi
Squishi's picture

crazy fundamentalist love global warming(aggrandizement)... doesnt matter the religion... they all unite on this matter. 

 

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:41 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Oh my goodness, no! You've done gone and brought SCIENCE into this matter.

We don't take kindly to science in these parts. The North Pole has shifted? Bah! Next, you'll be trying to convince me that the Earth is round. You silly liberal!

http://thewashingtonfancy.com/2011/08/11/michele-bachmann-disputes-round...

DES MOINES – During a presidential campaign stop at a small diner south of Des Moines, Congresswoman Bachmann explained to customers there that she believes the earth is actually flat, and that a liberal conspiracy is to blame for covering up this fact.

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:15 | Link to Comment icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

Not one "hide the decline" reference? Someone's slipping!

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:23 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

+1 for the bio.

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:25 | Link to Comment RollinsArline3
RollinsArline3's picture

my roomate's mom makes $83/hr on the computer. She has been fired from work for 9 months but last month her pay check was $18339 just working on the computer for a few hours. Read more on this web site .....  http://bit.ly/FPPP3j

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:34 | Link to Comment Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

It must be hard on your room-mate's mom's ass to get fucked on a computer all day. She must be a skank because even the ugly whores around here get $100 an hour.

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:38 | Link to Comment JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

Finally, M$B unmasked. No wonder [s]he doesn't bother posting much anymore...18 grand a month I'd slack off too!

Maldives Huh?

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:31 | Link to Comment Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

I'm convinced that my cousin (PhD Pysics) who worked for the defense dept. to develop weather altering weapon systems paved the way for our govt. to manipulate the weather and they are intentionally warming areas of the globe to "nudge" public opinion.  It's frightening stuff to think about.

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:31 | Link to Comment ABG LINE
ABG LINE's picture

Chemtrails.

 

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:35 | Link to Comment sabra1
sabra1's picture

so many of these bastards are goin' to hell, which in turn, makes hell's fire so much hotter, the heat vents into the atmosphere!

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:54 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

Which simply means that the past 3 months of strength will be "cash for clunkered" quite soon, as all the soaked up extra demand disappears in coming months.

L0L!!! thxz, tyler!

i said last year that prez0 would run on a strong dollar, too!  now, he can also be for peace, and i think he and bilary are playing their cards, correctly, here

either that, or they are fuking his/her-story

this promised-invasion of iran thingy is of which i speak;  right from the neo-cons' play-book, at first blush;  but their russian ministerial spokesperson was careful to include that this would be before the end of the year, for sure

i haven't felt this safe in months!  i hope the iranians get thru this ok, too!   L0L!!!  so, maybe they'll change their military minds, or iran will decide to come to terms or they might actually blow something iranian to fuking smithereens (safer, now, prop-wize, so can lead to 'resolution'), but at least that scenario where israel draws down on them resulting in the iranian missile barrage probably landing on palestinian school children haz been averted, at least for now, eh?  this leaves israel to kill these young hooligans all by itself

at least we can thank the shitheaded morons for that, BiCheZ!

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:35 | Link to Comment Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

The debate about climate has been boring for a long time. Personally, I'll go with what the foks at Cern say.

 

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/08/25/cern_cloud_cosmic_ray_first_results/

 

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 14:01 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

why?  tell us more

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 14:17 | Link to Comment Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

ummm cause they're like the smartest guys on the planet. This is where the hadron collider is located. This is considered the most prestigious lab in the world. Did you read the article?

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 14:24 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

no, i was doing something else with my computer, which is why i asked

yes, i know something about cern and the prestige involved;  so what about the article do you agree with?  what does it say that you think is worth knowing? 

that was what i was trying to get to, as you may have, somehow, already sensed, being a dawg, and all...

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:45 | Link to Comment bgilliam83
bgilliam83's picture

This is from the BP oil spill, I think we released more green house gas potential from all that methane than the industrial revolution by a serious magnitude.  When Oklahoma has a hotter summer than Las Vegas, I kind of figure that is way outside the realm of anything statistically possible otherwise. 

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:58 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

as we evolve, we must never forget seasonality and the adjustments along the way, comrades

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:49 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

We need an alternative president a lot more than alternative energy.

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 17:07 | Link to Comment Bollixed
Bollixed's picture

"We need an alternative president a lot more than alternative energy."

I thought that's what the MSM hoisted upon us in the last election.

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 13:57 | Link to Comment EmileLargo
EmileLargo's picture

Europe just had its coldest winter in decades. The US had a warmer winter than normal. How does this add up to global warming?

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 14:08 | Link to Comment bgilliam83
bgilliam83's picture

BP

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 14:17 | Link to Comment Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

 

How does this add up to global warming?

You ask to many questions. The 'science' is settled. //sarc//

Sat, 03/17/2012 - 11:25 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Don't confuse climate with weather....

Here is the Jan 2012 temp. anomaly map

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/story/january-2012-surface-temperatu/61648

seems Europe despite a cold snap was warmer than usual...

Here is the Feb  data

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 14:01 | Link to Comment Father Lucifer
Father Lucifer's picture

 Camaro Z28, 11mpg glad I could help.

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 14:08 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

they're practically giving them away, for some reason, especially when they need tires, brakes, or smog-check paperwork.  can you put the top down?  Hahaha!

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 14:57 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Good point. Look at the chart of CBO Real GDP forecasts. It looks like the cycling down sequence from Independce Day.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/03/16/the-glacial-economy-recovery-capacity-utilization-falls-still-below-80/ If weather gets worse and unemployment rises, WATCH OUT!

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 15:45 | Link to Comment BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

At least we know that its not global warming/climate change that is killing our honey bees...

 http://news.yahoo.com/honeybee-deaths-linked-corn-insecticides-221639948--abc-news.html

Its Monsanto

... and their piece of shit genetically altered corn seeds.

http://www.monsanto.com/Pages/default.aspx

You guys have any idea how much corn byproduct goes into the food we eat... I think all those long winded sugars and shit you cant pronounce on labels - is mostly from corn.

And from my understanding - these corn seeds that Monsanto has created - will be eventually the only corn seeds that can be used...and will wipe out natural crops of good farmers.

All the other natural ones will die off and than you will have to use these new genetically modified ones... which i think only grow one time and of course you will have to buy more from them.

 

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 15:48 | Link to Comment Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Monsanto are terrorist.

They have produced a seed called the "Terminator".

Kid you not.

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 15:45 | Link to Comment Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Speaking of the weather,I wish this geo-engineering would fuck off and leave my skies alone.

Fucking jets spraying chemicals daily over me.

Fuck Off and crash,Chemtrail Jets...!!!!

Fri, 03/16/2012 - 22:59 | Link to Comment cnhedge
Fri, 03/16/2012 - 23:42 | Link to Comment JustanEmotion
JustanEmotion's picture

certainly one wouldn't stoop so low as to use haarp for stimulating the economy...

 thats so out there, it might actually be true.

 

Sat, 03/17/2012 - 06:06 | Link to Comment shahroodi
shahroodi's picture

"Mild winter weather lowers energy consumption"

 

so in mild winter crude is at above 100$ , if we had a cold winter crude price should be at 200$ ??????!!!!!!!!

Sat, 03/17/2012 - 09:48 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Well maybe $120.... but you get the idea

Sat, 03/17/2012 - 08:52 | Link to Comment rhaan
rhaan's picture

What global warming?

Or do you think the USA represents more than 3% of the earth's land mass?

For your information Global Warming stopped 17 years ago and we're running well below the long term average.

Just have a read at this paper from David Archibald and please stop spreading this CAGW hubris.

http://www.iwp.edu/docLib/20120312_FourHorsemenPart2.pdf

 

Thanks in advance.

Sat, 03/17/2012 - 09:55 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

How about this paper...

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/4/044022

Here is a laymans guide....

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/12/06/the-real-global-warming-signal/

 

PS What you showed is not a paper, it is a presentation... big difference...

Sat, 03/17/2012 - 22:25 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

Interesting stuff, seen most of it before but nice to see it compiled like this.

It parallels my view that we have much greater problems to concern ourselves with than global warming, an that lumping everything together, as it has been, and viewing it all and the world through a prism of demented global-warming pseudo-science, has been an appalling mistake, than politicians have fawned after at every turn (especially the deviate greens).

I've been convinced since the first IPCC report was released that the global warming circus would inevitably fall flat on its face, and thus completely destroy the credibility of what can only be called pop-science (thank krist!), demolish the alleged virtue of international organisations like the UN and World bank (thank krist), and make Govt institutes and major Universities look like complete jackasses (thank krist), and pompous arrogant individual scientists as well (thank krist).

Looks like this is taking place.

Meanwhile, just on Friday in Australia's media and political circles we had political idiots asserting that any further public debate of the topic of global warming should be disposed of, and criticisms or scepticism, summarily ignored by our political representatives!
 
Scientists say cooler summer doesn't mean end to global warming
Updated March 15, 2012 08:43:00
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-15/scientists-say-cooler-summer-doesn...

So the lunatic greenies have come out with complete clap crap fear campaigns like this one last week:
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3885458.html

We're getting this constant blizzard of shit about global-warming.  It's not even a case of 'science', its just a case of believers, and non-believers, with apostates and heretics thrown in.  It's so out of hand that the CSIRO and BOM openly admit to engaging in propaganda, fear mongering and psychological tweaking (i.e. psy-ops) to get their message across, but even then the general public are still not buying it.  So they're politically panicking, there careers are on the line, because they realise people think it's probably just incidental bullshit, they have a shorter timeframe of concerns, are easily distracted, and have noticed that they are simply being manipulated by propaganda and fear campaigns every time there's a fairly routine extreme weather event somewhere.

So these people have actually switched off.  But stupidly, TPTB in Canberra keep insisting that shoving move of the same down our throats and taxing us for it is the solution to their insulting use of the term 'deniers' ... which simply turns people off all the more, and actually caused them dig their heels in, and resist and to voice scepticism openly and regularly. It's all backfiring! ... and so it should.  If it actually were real and tangible these fools would not be having this constant problem of manufacturing consent and trying to mobilise it into policy.

The reality is the sceptics have only been so effective because hardline global warming doctrine is a house of cards that is simply too easy to question, dismiss and then ignore.  And that is what is happening.  So it remains to be seen if that is even going to be a problem.  It is maybe only a 'problem' for those with an agenda that involves getting a free lunch from the public purse, and god knows, that's a real problem.

But having an historic blizzard at the Copenhagen summit didn't help, and the deep-freeze winter that followed, then an even colder winter in Europe and Asia the following year:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=cGJKm5i1KMY

The problems will finally boil over into outright rejection of global warming and major scandal when we start getting serious cold snaps and crop failures for a few years, like has occurred within living memory.

Not that the simplistic global-warming mantra being bollocks will prevent famine and war from a colder period though.

We'd then actually wish the Earth was warming due to humanity.

Sun, 03/18/2012 - 10:39 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

You are getting fooled by fancy plots and squiggly lines drawn on them...

One prediction of Global warming is that weather will become more extreme...

Here is a very simple paper that simply looks at the change in the rate of 3 sigma (~1 in 1000) over the past 50 years... 

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20111110_NewClimateDice.pdf

And here is a laymans overview:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Summary-of-Hansen-Nov-2011.html 

----

Since you think the globe is cooling how do you reconcile that hypothesis with this:

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2011GL048794.shtml

Note figure 3a

It is summarized very nicely here

http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-cooling-intermediate.htm

Since 1960 we have an extra 2.5 x 10^23 joules of heat contained int the oceans....

That is the equivalent of ~5 x 10^9   Hiroshima A-Bombs  (thats 5 billion)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Boy

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 09:44 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

At no point did I say I thought Earth to be cooling.

And I thought you said you were a fan of 'rationalism', because for a pure-rationalism advocate you certainly assume a fucking lot.

But I have said repeatedly that the stuff you go on, and on, ... and ooonnn with, ... is thoroughly unimpressive from the geological perspective and scale, and especially with respect to signal-to-noise.  It doesn't even rate.  Periods less than approx 500 years in my view is weather-variability, it's not 'climate'.  And this is what really burns the arse of guys like you; a geologist knows you're only talking about noise!

Climate is the smoothed generalisation, not the spikey particularity.

So when you go into hysterics about 0.16 degrees in decades ... I roll my eyes in despair at your banal myopia.

(and let's not even mention the prospects for error).

As usual you're barking and yapping at the constant shifts in the changing shape of theoretical clouds -- what-the-fuck-ever noddy!

I think the pdf document linked puts forward an interesting series of propositions (as does Henrik Svensmark, I might add).

I don't feel compulsive neediness, a threat or an insecurity that requires me to either accept or reject it though. 

And I think the reason why you carry on like such a dick all the time is because you're simply pushing a political agenda, probably related to on-going parasitic Govt funding (but I'm sure you lie to yourself about that ... but this is just a theory).

Plus it's rather unlikely that anything you'd say will influence my outlook or areas of concern much.

But mostly, I'm tired of having to explain to a tedious dolt about your continual false-assertions based on mere second-guesses (I strongly suspect simply to bait), and your pull-it-out-of-your-arse assumptions.

Sorry, but your combination of boof-headed schtick and pseudo-science fanaticism is not interesting to me.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 09:50 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I am familiar with Svensmark... So far, some interesting ideas but no game changer and since his original work, the evidence is piling up against the hypothesis...

What assumptions? You are are the that seems to make them....

The above post is a rambling collection of ad homenims....

You have yet to post a link to a peer reviewed scientific paper that is consistent with the argument you make....

I could provide links to tens, if not hundreds, of papers authored by experts, vetted by other experts, that support my position...

I provided 2 links to papers that have no model dependencies or assumptions; they consist of basic statistical analyses which either demonstrate 0.16 K warming per decade or that the weather is becoming significantly more extreme... You refuse to, or more likely are incapable, of discussing the results or the methods used...

You are living in denial....

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 10:02 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

Um, no, you're incapable of facing that one can only determine actual climate change from intervals of about 500 years of smoothed observations, where 500 years is the smallest unit of time considered, and the trend line is described by connecting such periods.

That is climate change.

 

Now go bark at a cloud.

Mon, 03/19/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

No...

Climate change is the response of the Earth to changing radiative forcings...

Only the time scale of the change in forcings is relevant....

This is what climate change looks like:

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20111110_NewClimateDice.pdf 

And here is a laymans explanation

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Summary-of-Hansen-Nov-2011.html

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 04:31 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

You don't observe in advance, you observe now, events that occurred in the past.

'Radiative forcings' is called a MECHANISM.

It is not 'climate change'.

The PAST observation of secular change in T trend over a sufficently long period is pre-requisite, before any one can say there has been actual climate change, that is clearly differenciated from the noise of shorter-term observations.

 

Anything else is pretending.

Thu, 03/22/2012 - 04:31 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!