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US August Budget Deficit Soars To $192 Billion, $1.17 Trillion In Fiscal 2012
While the official number from the FMS is not out yet, according to an advance look by the CBO, the August deficit soared from a modest $70 billion to a whopping $192 billion, the highest August deficit in history, and coming at a time when traditionally the US Treasury does not generate substantial deficits. It also means that "that" $59 billion budget surplus in April, coming after 42 straight months of deficits, and which surprised so many, was just as we suspected, nothing but a play on the temporal mismatch between treasury receipts and outlays. Most importantly, with one month left in the fiscal year, a month which, too, will likely come well above last year's $63 billion, the US has now spent $1.165 trillion more than it has received via various taxes. Finally so much for the year over year improvement: at $1.23 trillion deficit in the LTM period, this is only 3.2% less than the August 2011 LTM deficit which was $1.27 trillion, despite nearly 2 million more workers employed (at least according to the BLS) and generating tax revenue. Expect the US to end Fiscal 2012 with a total deficit of well over $1.2 trillion, which in turn means that the average burn rate of $100 billion in new debt issuance each month, will continue into the indefinite future.
As a reminder...
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The train is off the rails and all we are all supposed to care about which conductor is going to get the driver job. Notice the direction of the red line in the bottom chart when big O took office. We met the new boss. Now who will the new boss be?
The train is not totally off the rails yet. But soon it will be. I give it 3 years max.
Bah! This is nothing another four years of Obama's budgetary expertise can't fix!
3-5 years. October 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, looks like 2013 is going to be rough.
1925-29
1715-20
2002-07
When massive amounts of liquidity are created it take time...
As a government contractor, what is your Plan B economics9698? Or are you private sector now?
Governments, with the aiding & abetting of central banks, are screwing their citizens over worse than they have in many, many decades (and in some cases, generations), by taxing savers (via artifically low and repressive interest rates), as I've written many times here on ZH, such as here:
And then, tonight, lo & behold, The New York Times prints an article on this matter, although they try to paint this 'strategy' as benignly as possible:
Low Interest Rates Benefit Governments, but Not Savers-
As Low Rates Depress Savers, Governments Reap Benefits
By CATHERINE RAMPELL Published: September 10, 2012A consumer complaint is ricocheting around the world: low interest rates are eating away at savings.
...
Though bad for people trying to live off their savings, low interest rates happen to be quite good for anyone borrowing money, like governments themselves. Over time, interest rates below the inflation rate allow governments to refinance, erode or liquidate their debt, making it easier to live within their budgets without having to resort to more unpalatable spending cuts or tax increases.
Along with keeping rates low, governments are using a variety of tactics to encourage captive audiences, like pension funds and banks, to buy their debt. Consumers, in other words, are subtly subsidizing governments without even knowing it. Economists have compared this phenomenon to a hidden tax on people’s wealth.
“If you ask a central banker is that what you’re doing, and why you’re doing it, they’ll say ‘No, we’re just trying to get the economy going by making it easier for the private sector to borrow,’ ” said Neal Soss, chief economist at Credit Suisse. “But I have a syllogism for you: The government makes the rules. The government needs the money. So why should it surprise if the rules encourage you to lend the government money?”
This is not the first time governments have benefited by depressing interest rates, something economists refer to by the ominous name of “financial repression.”
In the three and a half decades after World War II, interest rates in the developed world were on average below zero after adjusting for inflation, according to Carmen M. Reinhart, a professor at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard. This helped Europe, the United States and Japan slowly whittle away much of their war debt as their economies grew faster than their debt burden.
“The difference is that the postwar period was one of strong growth, when rebuilding and capital investment was going on across the Continent, and there were strong demographics,” said Stefan Hofrichter, the chief economist at Allianz Global Investors. “But these elements are not necessarily in place today.”
For that reason, economists are less certain that the success of the strategy will be repeated.
Many major economies are already slowing down, if not outright contracting. And the actions taken by governments to keep interest rates low can restrain how much savers have to spend and force fragile banks and pension funds to take on more risk. Ultimately, it could crowd out private borrowing.
Governments have different mechanisms to keep their borrowing costs artificially low.
The Chinese government can just make a call to banks and dictate how much they will lend and at what interest rate.
“By forcing them to lend at low interest rates, China’s central bank is taxing banks at high rates,” said Nicholas R. Lardy, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “They make it up to the banks by dictating that banks pay depositors even lower rates, so consumers are getting taxed too.”
Here's the banksters next scheme:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-10/big-banks-hide-risk-transforming-collateral-for-traders.html
If you thought this is a huge deficit, you ain't seen nothing yet.
This clip has ridiculously high entertainment value. And the Secret Service is now involved.
INSTANT CLASSIC - Watch A Not Very Bright DNC Delegate Threaten To Kill Mitt RomneyMy oh my, ever the optimist ain't we?
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
Pay no attention to the people shuffling about behind stage.
That is a disgusting amount of debt to accumalte in one year. Compounding interest is only going to make this accelerate faster and faster sadly.
http://ericsprott.blogspot.ca/
got to get some more ammo.
At least we're not Spain:
http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2012/09/06/actual-spanish-financing-ne...
America Is Using Tricks To Hide A Debt Crisis Worse Than Greece
World debt comparison
The global debt clock Our interactive overview of government debt across the planet
http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock
Notice we're in the :) Red!
National debt talking points. Fucking talking points.
Editor's note: Publication of this clip is a statement on the incorrigibly egregious, generational-pillaging hypocrisy of the Washington spending establishment, and is not an endorsement of the Romney-Ryan ticket or any other part of the false Left-Right U.S. Bankruptcy Machine.
$16,000,000,000,000.00bama Talking PointsActually we are in worse shape, let,s not forget once the dollar loses reserve currency status which is well on it,s way the U.S is burnt toast
Where's kito and USD bulls to tell you you've got it all completely wrong.
The DOELARR will somehow rise like the Pheonix from the Ashes.
It's true. When we're burning them to keep warm, they will 'rise from the ashes'. I hope you have lots of $1 bills.
Yup and let's not forget
Obama's Budget Has One Small, Missing Piece.... For $6.3 Trillion Dollars
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/obamas-budget-has-one-small-missing-piece-63-trillion-dollars
It's all about the math. On a long enough timeline the math will always work.
'the more debt you have, the wealthier you are' - serial hero from the left
'deficits don't matter' - serial hero from the right
'To infinity and beyond!!!"
-Buzz Lightyear
Who knew he was an intergalactic keynesian?!?
Give OBastard some credit as he did manage to cut some things in half before his term expired. The Middle Class, the economy, jobs, my patience...............
I liked your post, I stole it and posted it on my faceplant account. Thanks
Add to that his term in office.
China's president-to-be Xi Jinping has vanished for 10 days now, leaving Hillary Clinton, the Singaporeans and Danes hanging. The transition of power was supposed to happen in a month.
Shit is getting real.
Maybe that is a good thing. Imagine if Bernanke, Blankfein, Dimon and for that matter Washington D.C. got abducted by aliens to another galaxy far far away. Do you think anyone would miss them?
I heard they sent him to a North Korean labor camp
No, he is currently in the U.S. posing for the upcoming new image on the dollar bill.
But but but... if the government doesn't spend, the society will collapse!
Snicker Bizarro World black is white
Bad is good and good is bad
Joking aside, think what happens to GDP when you remove 1.2T in deficit spending (remembering that government spending is included in the GDP calc). Remove that deficit spending and GDP drops by 8%, probably more with multiplier effects. It's gonna get ugly.
I'm not saying we should deficit spend - we shouldn't, and it's about damn time we took our medicine. But just understand that when we cut that much spending, society will at least get knocked to its knees.
The longer they wait the Uglier it will get, just postponing the inevitable
Yep. What needs to be done won't be done... so it'll get to a point where the government will have to cut 50-60% of the federal budget overnight, instantly creating a depression and a massive one at that.
It'll be... Total budget - deficit - debt servicing - some more because of the multiplier effect of cutting the budget = what you can spend.... right now, that would mean...
3.796 trillion - 1.327 trillion - 454 billion (2011) - ??? = 2 trillion - multiplier effect... so let's say 1.9 trillion... so right now, if they cut the deficit, it would mean a 50% budget cut overnight...
Total gdp : 15.606 trillion Total cuts : 1.881 trillion Cuts as % of GDP : 12%... Right there you got a massive depression. And remember how bad it was in 2008-2009? Well the GDP only went down 3% at most. Now imagine at least 4 times that... yeah...
But this doesn't end there... the thing is, Washington is gonna continue their crap till the bond market says ENOUGH... that means HIGHER DEBT... and HIGHER DEBT SERVICING COSTS...
So cutting the budget 50% overnight is if things were fixed TOMORROW... you bet when they really gonna have to do it, it'll be more like 60-70%... the longer it goes, the worse it will be...
That's why DHS is arming itself... they know when it hits the fan, it'll really hits the fan.
They will never cut, they will print...
Every fiat ends that way eventually, inflated away without exception.
I wasn't joking look at the language they use it to obscure the truth. These day's the title of an article in the MSM has little or no bearing as to what is actually inside it. Double speak the politicians have that down to an art i.e., social security "entitlement" used as if it's a welfare program when in fact it is a legally enforceable debt and our constitution says...
Sect. 4 of the 14th Amendment. It reads in part:
vs. people are entitled to get back the money they were forced to pay in but hey it keeps the plebs fighting.
The GDP formula is bad and it runs the whole world. Government should be subtracted, not added to private GDP and trade numbers should always be zero. What one side gains in currency it loses in goods so trade is always net zero.
So, when the whole world runs on a bad formula it is like sending off a moon landing with bad physics. It is a matter of time till Houston starts seeing serious problems.
Also consider that the more people are suing each other, getting divorced, using their credit card, Going into hospital, having plastic surgery or otherwise spending money they don't have.
The better the GDP numbers look!
Between the twin evils of GDP "statistics" and "fictional reserve banking" our society is really in deep doo- doo.
CrimsonAvenger nails it. No one in Washington is talking about it (and it was not mentioned at either political convention), but the deficit is the only reason the ecomomy is growing. But using debt to maintain growth is not a solution, and soon we are no longer going to be able to borrow $100 billion a month to stay out of recession/depression.
It's obvious to most of us here a ZH that we are in a countdown to economic catastrophe. Those Chicago teachers have no idea what is coming, or else they would not have turned down a raise. Soon, anyone will be smilling who is offered a raise. To have a job will be something to be grateful for, and strikes will soon be a thing of the past.
We will keep our huge budget deficit as long as we can, but the clock is ticking and a black swan event is coming. I can hear it, tick, tick tick.
www.goldsilverdata.com/companies.html
Those teachers are already the highest paid in the nation and they turned down 16% in today's economy and it's not like Illinois has low taxes. Those public unions have way too much influence over the power of the purse.
IL: Taxpayer advocate says Chicago teachers’ salaries ‘out of the world’
Average $76K salary for 9 months work, excluding pension and benefits...typical pigs (oink, oink, slop, greed, slop) while feeding at the public trough.
Free cheese train is gonna jump the rails and then what?
When The Music Stops – How America’s Cities May Explode In Violence
Mittens said he will eliminate the deficit by the end of his second term today. I believe him.
I bet you believed obama
Obama’s Broken Deficit Promise
snip
“This is big,” wrote White House director of new media Macon Phillips in a February 23, 2009 blog post, ”the President today promised that by the end of his first term, he will cut in half the massive federal deficit we’ve inherited. And we’ll do it in a new way: honestly and candidly.”
Indeed, President Obama did make that promise that day, saying, “today I’m pledging to cut the deficit we inherited in half by the end of my first term in office.
I did. I also believe I have no propensity for sarcasm.
Unintentional sarcasm?
and now they have Bill Clinton in the campaign commercial, talking about what got us in trouble in the first place.
HELLO Bill, you signed NAFTA, tore apart Glass-Stengle, borrowed $500 Billion from Social Security, did not pay into the Public Employee Pension Plan, convinced Fannie and Freddie that everybody should own a home whether they could afford it or not, let the first attack on the World Trade Center go unpunished.
Bill, You were a major contributer, to todays problems.
Not to split hairs, but the first attack on the WTC was an FBI sponsored false flag event.
He also promised everyone thier fair share and fair shake (by the TSA)
i don't. same bullshit as Obama slings.
Barack Obama...
Just take a moment to allow yourself to bathe in the sheer awesomeness...
We're in big trouble. Can't help but worry about the young kids who try so hard but will inherit this mess. http://xanalyser.blogspot.com/
1.2 trillion / year to fund - I'm pretty sure that the FED will find something they can buy for the next round of QE.
If we all get a second job and stop eating out we can pay this fucking thing back in 5 years no problem. Some of you are going to have to sell your gold though. Ok. All of you but we'll get this debt under control. Makes me feel good to think about chipping in my savings through currency debasement to help pay this debt the politicians heaped up for us on all their necessary wars and good welfare program too. Can't wait to start paying into the new Sick Care system too help out oo even though I've never went to the Dr. a day in my life. This is just a tempory bad patch we're going through. Soon gas will be back to 99 cents and the Nasdaq will be over 5,000 and the wasteline of this country will shrink from 48 back down to 32. I can feel it.
"Some of you are going to have to sell your gold though. Ok. All of you but we'll get this debt under control...." +1 for humor.
I'd love to be able to help out.
But well you know the story.....
"I Am Pledging To Cut The Deficit We Inherited By Half By The End Of My First Term In Office"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/friday-humor-i-am-pledging-cut-deficit-we-inherited-half-end-my-first-term-office
He meant he would double the deficit by the end of his first term. It's the way his home Illinois /Chicago handles it's deficits.
He assigned a tax cheat to head the Treasury.
Maybe some savvy zh contributor will do a story on Barry's tremendous successes in the area of removing all earmarks from legislation.
I'm guessing that will be some interesting reading.
Maybe in Kenyan "Cut in Half" means to multiply by 2.
Our only real option is to initially get the real growth rate up by 2 to 3 percent minimum. Whacking us with taxes to the tune of 4% GDP will kill the engine quite good, same with slamming the brakes on spending.
What just kills me is we are borrowing $1T each year for current accounts, barely anything that would be considered an investment. At least an investment has a benifit payback over time.
Our only real option is to initially get the real growth rate up by 2 to 3 percent minimum. Whacking us with taxes to the tune of 4% GDP will kill the engine quite good, same with slamming the brakes on spending.
Now that's funny. That's BS like that that Krugman and Obamabots push. Guess what, debt is going up at a rate of 8-10% of GDP every year and GDP growth is barely there. In the last 60 years, the highest growth the US ever had was 5% a year and it's still not enough to equal the debt. If debt rises faster than GDP, the problem is still there.
We are screwed no matter who the president is the next 4 years. Nothing will change for the better. But when you hire someone to do a job, pay them big bucks and they fail, well, then you fire that person and hire someone new. At least that is the way it worked when America was a free country and we had a system called Capitalism.
Lets see....when was that?
Honey Badger don't give a shit about deficits
Why cant anyone see the obvius, USA need to cut its military spending drasticly and keep the social welfare program intact. Otherwise you have social unrest and a huge military apparatus which is a deadly combination.
We're going to need that huge military when all the nations that bought our debt don't get paid.
"Ctrl-P" to keep the military humming, the EBT flowing, and the FED backdoor handouts to banks at 0.05% flowing.
Now get back to work, the government and the banks need the tax revenue (going up soon, red or blue).
The nominal effect of 4% per annum interest, if US deficit spending were to stop entirely from this point forward.
2012 16.000
2013 16.360
2014 16.706
2015 17.037
2016 17.356
2017 17.662
2018 17.955
2019 18.237
2020 18.507
2021 18.767
2022 19.017
2023 19.256
2024 19.486
2025 19.706
2026 19.918
2027 20.121
2028 20.316
2029 20.504
2030 20.684
The nominal effect if the US deficit continues to grow at 4% per annum, with the current 1.18 Trillion more in spending each year, for the next 10 years.
2012 16.000
2013 17.540
2014 19.018
2015 20.438
2016 21.800
2017 23.108
2018 24.364
2019 25.569
2020 26.727
2021 27.837
2022 28.904
And let's not forget, the delevering hasn't even really begun yet. That's what the spending cycle is supposed to be for, to ease the actual traumatic delevering--that is still to come. But all that has occurred so far is an attempt to sustain fantasy bubble-level asset price levels. And it's failing, because the economy is dying anyway,
And as you can see in the second list, the spending of the next four years alone will have the same effect on debt as the compounding interest spread out until 2030. So it should be apparent to even a two-party electoral-college chimp, that deficit-spending is by far and away the most serious security threat the USA faces today. It overwhelms and dwarfs any other conceivable threat, or threats to homeland security, combined.
And the real need to spend has not even arrived yet, it's all been wasted on trying to pretend the zombie-banks are still alive instead--and those banks are still going to fail anyway!
But just out of curiosity, has either of the nominated tussling moron pathetically yapping nonsense on the MSM, for an office neither should on any account be awarded, has either seriously addressed the US deficit in any credible way? Or even mentioned it flippantly, in passing remarks? Is it something they have ever thought about much during a quiet moment?
How would anyone know given the MSM is such an unforgivable clueless joke? Where are the people with spine to hold a blow-torch to these two snakes over the next less than two months? Is anyone who currently pretends to call themselves a professional mainstream journalist, going to hold their feet to the fire at any point?
Element, my guess is no.
Numbers numbers numbers ...
Got any gold?
debt is a legal concept. we are a nation of laws, just ask the GM secured bond holders..
the cia,nsa,dia, and others in fed gov have gamed the US debt problem and see no security threat. these guys are very very nasty smart so Why worry, they have got our backs.
we all should accept what we see but cannot understand> Fiat never was real, debt in fiat is not real..so solutions become simple to our debt.(law is as real as debt by the way)
many will have real pain when the money men pull the rug..but threat to power it is not.
in fact this is the basis for a NWO. a new fiat free of past debt. controlled by the same reptiles ooops (people)
so relax and if you can game this please share with us on ZH, some who understand the solution will be lucky enough to make themselves very wealthy.
Overmed: I gave up on getting rich so I can spend more time worrying about how to just keep the purchasing power I already have.
never give up jobob, look for value not 01's or printed paper..nothing lasts forever but some things last thousands of years. selling what people need has never gone out of style, knowing what people need, before they do ,sure is a big advantage. One idea is to provide protection from governments confiscation of real assets. worth thinking about there is a need too many are yet unaware of.
You didn't spend that, government did!
But you shore as shit iz gonna help pay it back mutha fukka!
you didn't build that..someone else did...
everybody else's fault but mine......forward
What is the best data series for nominal tax reciepts? Is this data broken down further for receipts and expenditures anywhere?
48% of the deficit comes from tax cuts, what do you expect?" Reagan proved that deficits don't matter" Dick Cheney. Trade deficits...what do you expect when you make all the shit we used to make in China? Outsource it bitches
It's august. nothing to see here folks. just get on the escalater to september, germany pointing the clinton back at the us.