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US Consumer Hopium Drops To February 2009 Levels

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Someone forgot to tell the US Consumer that "Europe is fixed" and that "nobody has heard of Die Welt" according to Jim Cramer, who incidentally said back in May 2008 "how anyone can think housing will get worse from here is beyond me." Because according to the only non-biased and hence non-market moving consumer confidence poll, that of Bloomberg, October Economic Expectations dropped to -45 after -34. Not much to explain here: this was the lowest print since February 2009. As Bloomberg economist Brusuelas says, "Consumer confidence may be better predictor of direction of economy than spending."

Other findings in the weekly poll:

  • Weekly Bloomberg Comfort Index -48.4 for week of Oct. 16 vs -50.8 prior week; two-month high
  • Sentiment among highest earners ($100K+) -11.1 vs prior -9.2
  • Public “now expects economic conditions to deteriorate regardless of the recent increase in economic activity,” says Bloomberg economist Joseph Brusuelas
  • Seeing “consumer conundrum” where confidence remains relatively bleak despite increase in overall consumption
  • May tap savings, lines of credit to replace worn-out durables, then revert back to behavior consistent paring down

But, the consumer is deleveraging we are told. After all, some squiggly MMT line charts suggest that when the government is issuing $1.5 trillion in bonds each year, consumers must be deleveraging. They MUST.... Or, are those textbook descriptions of "reality" just a little off?

 


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Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:00 | Link to Comment 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

spending up 3.5% YoY.  Inflation up 6.9% YoY.  am i the only one that sees REAL spending is down?

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:08 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

I'd love to see a reporter throw that fundamental question to the Joe-B and TOTUS show.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:16 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

The libertarian crowd seems to have an ever increasing sense of superiority stemming from their belief that underground blogs are more credible than the mainstream media. I would like to point out that many mainstream media outlets were predicting this crisis WELL in advance. Here are some examples of the mainstream media predicting our current economic conditions:

1. This controversial BBC article discussed the possibility of a double dip recession long before anyone thought it was a possibility: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8464774.stm

2. CNN was also proactively warning about the possibility of a downturn in the global economy, well ahead of mainstream thought: http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/09/news/economy/double_dip_recession/index.htm

3. This MSNBC article was considering the possibility of a double-dip recession all the back in 2010: http://business.newsvine.com/_news/2010/06/10/4490544-analysts-lawmakers...

I think it's time for libertarians to grow up and admit that the mainstream news outlets are FAR ahead of the game when compared to discredited internet conspiracy-blogs, and that journalists with Ivy League degrees are far more qualified to analyse world events than spotty libertarian computer nerds.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:17 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Now that I've junked you, let me read what you wrote.  :D

...

...

...

Yup.  I got it right.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 12:28 | Link to Comment Nom de Guerre
Nom de Guerre's picture

Why junk him? This shit is comedy gold.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:20 | Link to Comment Darth..Putter
Darth..Putter's picture

For my part I've increased my retail spending on survival food, guns, ammo, 4x4 truck, solar panels and seeds.

Oops, forgot bullion.

 

There's yer uptick!!

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:20 | Link to Comment homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

"underground blogs are more credible than the mainstream media."

Surely you're not stupid enough to believe the opposite. If so, that'd explain why you posted what you did.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:24 | Link to Comment jdelano
jdelano's picture

Good satire has to occassionally venture a little too far into the absurd, thereby revealing to the reader that it is in fact satire rather than genuine idiocy... at least, that's what this "libertarian" learned while obtaining his Ivy League degree...

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:24 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

MillionDollarBonus_

I think it's time for libertarians to grow up and admit that the mainstream news outlets are FAR ahead of the game when compared to discredited internet conspiracy-blogs, and that journalists with Ivy League degrees are far more qualified to analyse world events than spotty libertarian computer nerds.

 

When your OWNED by the newsmakers, it's easy to get a leg up,there is no analyzing to be done.

Besides anyone with Sixth grade education new we never came out of the LAST one, It's So hard to figure this stuff out.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Dumpster Fire
Dumpster Fire's picture

journalists with Ivy League degrees are far more qualified to analyse world events than spotty libertarian computer nerds.

 

Yah like Cramer.  Preach it.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:57 | Link to Comment route40misery
route40misery's picture

Are you getting a nice cut, plugging them like this?

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 14:51 | Link to Comment xcehn
xcehn's picture

Anything is more credible than the mainstream media, which is essentially a JOKE, a propaganda ministry serving the banksters and other corporate sponsors.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:09 | Link to Comment DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

yeah, why don't they normalize monthly retail spending to changes in monthly CPI?  And normalize yOy retail spending to inflation.  I"d like to see those charts.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:11 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

What?!?  Tell the truth???  Opacity is the linchpin of power retention.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:20 | Link to Comment Rynak
Rynak's picture

Spending that does not directly or indirectly come from shots via (stealth-)taxation, has been down like forever.

And you don't need any fancy stats for this. Just look at real practical price inflation, and compare it with the wage/hour of the bottom 95%.... dude, they cannot spend what they do not have! That is, unless the average reduction in real wages, is to a lower or higher extend compensated via..... well, guess what.

If you take imports, exports and misc wealth-transfer mechanisms out of the game, then over a longterm timespan: Wages == purchasing power == corporate revenue == corporate spending == wages == purchasing power.... and so on. The only thing that changes anything at all in that loop, is transfers into and out of the system (imports, exports, debt) and wealth-transfer mechanisms, and hoarding.

 

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:23 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Zombie banks
Zombie mortgages
Zombie homeowners
Zombie corporations
Zombie politicians.

The whole economy of the first world is becoming zombified.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:01 | Link to Comment Steel_Preacher
Steel_Preacher's picture

You know if I had a buck for every time I wanted to just grab a sheeple, family member etc and smack the piss outta them and yell..."WAKE UP" I could buy GS.   Hopium KILLS.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:16 | Link to Comment mt paul
mt paul's picture

"You know if I had a buck for every time I wanted to just grab a sheeple, family member "

you would have fiat currency...and thus have less than nothing 

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Steel_Preacher
Steel_Preacher's picture

You got me, how about an ASE every time?

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:23 | Link to Comment treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

Try living in rural farmville where everything that can be pushed up with a weak dollar is soaring - and they're loving it and livin large.  I feel like Noah building an ark sometimes.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:02 | Link to Comment reader2010
reader2010's picture

Refi didn't work the magic this time around thanks to the free market. 

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:06 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Didn't see the /sarc/ so I down-arrowed you. 

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:09 | Link to Comment jdelano
jdelano's picture

you know you can go back and change it, right?

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:13 | Link to Comment Janice
Janice's picture

Just playing change the arrow.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:38 | Link to Comment reader2010
reader2010's picture

Less than 15% of the population accounts for nearly 90% of non-discretionary spending, and  that's the trend. As Richard Russell wrote lately, "Strange, although crowds are gathering to protest the difference in income, this does not seem to register on XLY.  Wealthy people are still spending and buying whatever they want.  The chart below shows the erratic moves of consumer discretionary. 

 

The latest move is a break below the 200-day moving average.  That takes XLY below the preceding top.  Here in La Jolla, the latest fancy restaurant (valet is $8) is bustling.  For the most part, nobody is bringing home brown bags for dinner.  Dinner at Eddie V's can easily run to $80.  There's a recession on and people are rioting, but who cares except those who can't pay their bills. "

 

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 12:17 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

You really should cite your sources when you steal stuff:

 

Richard Russel - This Market is One for the History Books

"Gold -- Despite daily warnings from amateur experts, gold continues to climb above its 200-day moving average (see chart below).  The last real correction occurred in 2009.  So far, gold has ignored the call for another correction.  Watch that 200-day MA, which stands at 1542." 

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/10/19_R...

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:03 | Link to Comment Chuck Norris
Chuck Norris's picture

Is there an ETF to trade Hopium?  What symbol is it?  I think its a good short candidate.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:10 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

snark.pk

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:11 | Link to Comment The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

 

 

We've entered the hopelessness age

Our freedom has turned to a cage

And those at the top

Unwilling to stop

Are about to unleash primal rage

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:13 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

+2

I don't think you've ever missed with a post, TLK.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:16 | Link to Comment The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

Thanks MK...it's nice to feel appreciated!

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:25 | Link to Comment smithcreek
smithcreek's picture

I junked you because that's the first non-limerick post I've seen, don't want it to become a habit.  But I did up arrow the limerick.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:48 | Link to Comment The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

 

 

Thanks for the up arrow Creek

That non-limerick post sure was weak

It would make me smile

If once in a while

I'm permitted some non-limerick speak

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 12:40 | Link to Comment smithcreek
smithcreek's picture

 

 

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:15 | Link to Comment homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

It's called FAZ, but unfortunately there has been a lot more hope in it than I'd like to see...

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:16 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

"how anyone can think housing will get worse from here is beyond me."

You were correct, IT IS beyond you.

Expect another 30-40% drop.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:04 | Link to Comment Irish66
Irish66's picture

Philly fed has been fiddled with

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:04 | Link to Comment Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

I'm not feeling very comfortable reading this....

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:05 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

according to Jim Cramer, who incidentally said back in May 2008 "how anyone can think housing will get worse from here is beyond me."

My "root cause" meter just pegged: we know the problem is FUBAR when folks like Cramer are employed.

 

But, the consumer is deleveraging we are told.

By "deleveraging," do we mean cutting back SSRI intake by 1/3 because they can no longer afford to dull their depression symptoms?

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:14 | Link to Comment wisefool
wisefool's picture

Cramer is not dumb. Sell the hopium (taxable) on mad money, Then put sound money (gold) in his tax free charitable trust when the camera is not looking at his freinds and familiy.

And the casino stocks are down today. Must be some breaking news about the "Sushi Grade Tuna" in chinese fish farms really being tripe.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:11 | Link to Comment Belarus
Belarus's picture

And most companies are doing something that everyone wants to ignore: they are missing on the top line. AT &T, all banks, IBM, etc.....some by substantial amounts. You can only get efficiency and peak margins so high, but revenues are the lifeblood of any company and when they are falling in unision, which the market wants to ignore and would rather ramp the ES up 100 pts in nano-seconds based on the slightest uptick in the EUR/USD, things are indeed starting to deteriote.

But, heh, right now all that matters are rumors, failed plans, and innuendo.  

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:12 | Link to Comment ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

Maybe Michelle Horseface Cabarara will go into the streets of Greece and get 'cornholed' Greek style!!

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:30 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I would do any of them

But I am in love with Maria Bartiromo. She is just so sweet!

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:12 | Link to Comment ZippyDooDah
ZippyDooDah's picture

My crack pipe is all out of hopium.  Can you help a brother out?

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 12:24 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Switch to meth you can make it yourself in a gatorade bottle.  Or hillbilly qualudes:

http://www.metacafe.com/watch/3253811/how_to_make_meth/

 

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:14 | Link to Comment nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Hopium is becoming a rare earth element

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:14 | Link to Comment Belarus
Belarus's picture

Oh, and isn't it just a bit wee strange that every index in the world is down but the U.S.? And almost every major heavey market cap weigthed stock is missing estimates. 

How does one short the CAC?

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 12:28 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

DOW is down almost 100 now.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:15 | Link to Comment raki_d
raki_d's picture

Bought a Jim-Cramer costume for this Halloween
Trick for the savers, treat for debtors

 

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:40 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Your avatar still gets me everytime.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:15 | Link to Comment TJW
TJW's picture

Just in time for Christmas!

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:17 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"Someone forgot to tell the US Consumer that "Europe is fixed" and that "nobody has heard of Die Welt" according to Jim Cramer, who incidentally said back in May 2008 "how anyone can think housing will get worse from here is beyond me."

It seems in our bizarro world that people like Cramer can say any reckless thing and it will bring no negative consequence upon them.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:21 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Before Cramer speaks they put up a disclaimer which basically says 'Anyone actually BELIEVING what I say and acting on it is a damn idiot'.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:27 | Link to Comment treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

I think before Liesman or Cramer try to say something logical or inspiring the network should air a disclaimer "folks, don't try this at home - these are professional bullshitters....."

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:17 | Link to Comment mt paul
mt paul's picture

outlaw hope

it's worse than herion ...

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:24 | Link to Comment Adrenaline_Jockee
Adrenaline_Jockee's picture

Everyone's watching the S&P triple top 1225...which lines up with the 70wma (which hasn't been wrong in decades)  The 70wma signaled a new bear market last month, so by rights we shouldn't close the week  above 1230.  I'm keeping my QIDs till then. 

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:33 | Link to Comment ivars
Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:36 | Link to Comment Truffle_Shuffle
Truffle_Shuffle's picture

Got plenty of hopium over here.  Be nice.....maybe I'll share.

http://www.beerpal.com/Foothills-Hopium-IPA-(Hoppyum)-Beer/22137/

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 11:11 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

OT, sorry, But this does not sound like the REAL deal.

Anyone else see / hear this SO called interview?.

Not our Beloved Warren.

Warren Buffett, in a recent interview with CNBC, offers one of the
best quotes about the debt ceiling:

"I could end the deficit in 5 minutes," he told CNBC. "You just
pass a law that says that anytime there is a deficit of more
than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible
for re-election/

The 26th amendment (granting the right to vote for 18 year-olds)
took only 3 months & 8 days to be ratified! Why? Simple!
The people demanded it. That was in 1971 - before computers, e-mail,
cell phones, etc.

Of the 27 amendments to the Constitution, seven (7) took one (1) year
or less to become the law of the land - all because of public pressure.

Warren Buffet is asking each addressee to forward this email to
a minimum of twenty people on their address list; in turn ask
each of those to do likewise.

In three days, most people in The United States of America will
have the message. This is one idea that really should be passed
around.

_*Congressional Reform Act of 2011*_

1. No Tenure / No Pension.

A Congressman/woman collects a salary while in office and receives no
pay when they're out of office.

2. Congress (past, present & future) participates in Social
Security.

All funds in the Congressional retirement fund move to the
Social Security system immediately. All future funds flow into
the Social Security system, and Congress participates with the
American people. It may not be used for any other purpose.

3. Congress can purchase their own retirement plan, just as all
Americans do.

4. Congress will no longer vote themselves a pay raise.
Congressional pay will rise by the lower of CPI or 3%.

5. Congress loses their current health care system and
participates in the same health care system as the American people.

6. Congress must equally abide by all laws they impose on the
American people.

7. All contracts with past and present Congressmen/women are void
effective 1/1/12. The American people did not make this
contract with Congressmen/women.

Congressmen/women made all these contracts for themselves. Serving in
Congress is an honor, not a career. The Founding Fathers
envisioned citizen legislators, so ours should serve their
term(s), then go home and back to work.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 12:03 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

NASDAQ megaphone pattern on daily chart indicates big move ahead.

USD weekly chart remains bullish and as predicted for some time further dollar upside expected.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!