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US Consumers Hit Peak Schizophrenia - A Chart

Tyler Durden's picture




 

An hour after getting a whopper in the retail sales number, which handily beat all expectations, we get "confirmation" that consumers are not only more optimistic, with overall Michigan confidence sliding from 59.4 to 57.5, on expectations of 60.2, but that they have less to look forward to than ever in the past 31 years, with the consumer expectations number dropping from 49.4 to 47.0, the lowest since May 1980. Yet expectations for a Dow 36,000 are easily the highest since October 2007. Although the chart that will blow everyone's mind is this comparison of the YoY change in retail sales and consumer sentiment. Two words: Peak Schizophrenia.

h/t John Lohman

 

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Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:09 | 1773304 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

Its inflation - RS nominally reported DOOD!

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:11 | 1773318 Corn1945
Corn1945's picture

Yeah, I don't believe retail sales are adjusted for inflation. So you can't just look at the headline number.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:16 | 1773347 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

real CPI running hot at 11.4% shadowstats.com

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:21 | 1773393 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Easy now fuzzy little man peach.

You're not accounting for expansion and contraction in efficiency! If steak's expensive, people will buy ground beef instead thus maintaining their standard of living!

Everyone knows this. Go back to sleep. Nothing to see here.

No but seriously... inflation really is at 11.4% and real unemployment's hanging out around 24%. Good times. What was the great depression? 34% unemployment? 10% off...

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:25 | 1773414 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Yeah.  And it is nothing that a 11% pay cut can't reverse, or an 11% drop in employment.  Everyone knows the key to printing money, giving it to your buddies, and having it maintain some value, is perma-recession.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:33 | 1773481 idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

Isn't this just what loss of confidence in a currency (i.e., pre-hyperinflation) looks like?

In 2008, people thought 'things are going to get worse, so I better stock up on what will help -- cash.'

Now, people think 'things are going to get worse, so I better buy [whatever] now -- I don't think I'll be able to afford it later.'

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:40 | 1773519 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

You're right, but we aren't there yet.  The tipping point is when the masses realize that the almighty fiat is losing value and they begin in earnest to convert it to just about anything else.  Money velocity is THE KEY indicator of confidence loss and the accelerant to hyper-inflation (if it goes that way).

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:00 | 1773565 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

Now wait for the markets to pile into general equities.  That will be the next sign that our currencies are failing.

 

P&G will sell soap in whatever currency - and make a profit.

 

There's been a pop in consumer discretionary purchases (usually leading indicator of consumers going on a buying binge) :

 

http://www.consumerindexes.com/  (see second graph).

 

But also a mother of a pop in M1 money supply which is very inflationary :

 

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/money-supply-charts

 

The Fed is hell bent on getting Obama re-elected.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:05 | 1773659 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Weimar Republic:  Oct 1922 to Oct 1923, the markets rose 28x.  Generally, people flee to another currency when their own fails, but this was outlawed so people had nowhere to run but to stocks.  The same holds true today.  Interest rates are 0% and all other currencies are also being debased.  Hence, nowhere to run but real things.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:33 | 1773847 darkhorse007
darkhorse007's picture

Don't worry... the inverted yield curve will fix everything. 

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:31 | 1773466 pettolicious
pettolicious's picture

Let them eat ground beef and donuts??  

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 20:52 | 1775906 Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

"I'm OLD GREG!"

What a twisted reference.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:22 | 1773395 Won_Over
Won_Over's picture

Maybe it is inflation, maybe it's not.... I think it's bigger than that.... it's the depression that has hit mainstream that in order to feel good and not kill yourself the last thing to do is hit the mall and spend that last dollar of your last credit card that still has available credit. After that they will jump off the closest bridge wearing their new Armani clothes and coach bags.

Someone look at the pharma sales, specifically the division of anti-depressants.

 

 

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:09 | 1773683 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

A friend works for a major distiller.  He told me the same.  People might not buy a new car during a recession, but they will buy luxuries like expensive booze because it makes them feel better.  His company is making massive profits from their most expensive lines.

That's why Hollywood made all those sappy synchronized swimming movies during the Depression, it make people forget for a while.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:20 | 1773764 Janice
Janice's picture

Or...people are stocking up on expensive booze to be used as barter should it become necessary....liquor, the real poor man's gold.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:23 | 1773787 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Someone look at lipstick sales.  They are the #1 indicator of "depression treat".

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 18:43 | 1775598 toady
toady's picture

Hmmmm

I wonder how lipstick would be used in a barter situation...

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:09 | 1774049 SemperFord
SemperFord's picture

A friend works for a large cable installer and not only are they getting overtime as more Americans sit on their fat ass, they are hiring! So bullish for anything the sheep dumb themselves with until umemployment benefits stop rolling in.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:55 | 1773602 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

Must be that Herm Cain rise in the polls which has everyone juiced.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:14 | 1773715 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Good point, i'd like to see the inflation adjusted and gold comparison chart next to it and it will look like a cliff!

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:10 | 1773310 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Its not the Americans buying, its all the Chinese coming over here to buy up all brand name high end stuff with their wads of cash....while we buy up their plastic useless junk in droves at Walmart. Thats a fair trade

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:20 | 1773382 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Good point. Make sure to call your Congressman in support of the China currency bill, it'll support job growth.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:34 | 1773484 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Had to buy a scarf for my gf at a LVMH store, which costs me and arm and a leg (1k) and when I went into the store, it was a like a chinkfest over there and these effers bought up the whole store like it was on sale. Guess the weak USD is indeed doing wonders for everyone else except the 99% of the US citizens. Those effers took all the stock in the scarf that I wanted to get so now I am on a waiting list for the next shipment. I hope it comes in soon because I have 2 weeks before her bday arrives. If it dont come in, I may have to go to Old Navy and pick one of those Made in China ones. Hope she dont mind.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:39 | 1773508 unky
unky's picture

For 1k i would consider change your gf. You can find many cheaper ones

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:40 | 1773521 earnulf
earnulf's picture

Reality Check!    If you pay 1K for a scarf, you probably paid at least 975 too much.

Heck, Wally World has long sleeve shirts with free scarves for less than $10!!

(Wow, 1K could have bought 31 oz of Silver, which would be a lot better birthday present IMO!)

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:54 | 1773598 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Suckers like you are part of the problem.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:57 | 1773607 spartan117
spartan117's picture

What's the old saying about a fool and his money...

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:02 | 1773637 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

I will admit, I am a total idiot for doling out like this but I am sure when it comes to a girl, ppl do stupid things. Hopefully this is a one-off...I have my fingers crossed.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:12 | 1773702 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I have an idea since you have two weeks.  Return the scarf, find one for $500.  Send me $100 for saving you $500 and you will have still saved $400.  Or you can send me the whole $500 in savings since I saved you the money after all.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:16 | 1773733 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Fortunately havent bought yet since I am only on a long waiting list so not out of the money just yet on it but will consider. your proposal.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:32 | 1773832 JP McManus
JP McManus's picture

Here's an idea: Why don't you give me half the money your were gonna to [spend], then we'll go out back, I'll kick you in the nuts, and we'll call it a day!

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:43 | 1773902 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Heres an idea: Go to the Occupy protest in your city and find a banker/cop/politician to kick in the nuts...will be more productive.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:57 | 1774276 totem
totem's picture

Why do you think it'll be a one-off?  If you give her a $1K scarf, you're setting yourself up for higher expectations.  And then maybe this: "What happened to the expensive gifts? Don't you love me anymore?"

Just be yourself.  If it's money she wants, let her go (she will ultimately leave anyway).  But if it's you she wants, what you get is not really important; so find something nice but not-too-expensive.

(On a slow-market day, ZH can morph into "Dear Abby"!  :-))

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 14:40 | 1774690 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Kinda like what the markets are expecting out of the Europeans and their plan of a plan right now?? Going higher on higher expectations?

Good advice, l am thinking like the Europeans right now...wishful thinking.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:04 | 1773645 The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

 

 

YOU PURCHASED A SCARF FOR 1k!!!!

My God, what's a fellow to say???

If you think that is wise

While some poor child dies

You're the essence of moral decay!  

 

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:05 | 1773655 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

A thousand bucks. Such is love. 

Here's a Louis Vuitton...but, sorry, DS: Even for a thousand, the chick doesn't come with it.

http://29.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_ljretgqCz31qf9hjno1_500.jpg

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:06 | 1773664 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Man - that's the business to get into: selling really expensive shit to stupid rich people.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:15 | 1774079 SemperFord
SemperFord's picture

1K for a scarf, you have to pay for her to slip off the panties, how sad. For that cash you can get a couple of girlfriends to do things your current one won't and you don't have to worry about going shopping!

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:12 | 1773312 jdelano
jdelano's picture

My interpretation is that the confidence numbers just show you how doctored the activity numbers are....

 

go out and talk to your neighbors, the people that own your local bar, restaurant, dry cleaners--they ain't buyin' shit.  Nobody's buying shit except the 1%.  

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:55 | 1773603 Ctrl-Alt-Defeat
Ctrl-Alt-Defeat's picture

Done that, you are entirely correct in my experience :(

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:56 | 1773605 centerline
centerline's picture

Most people I know are still on tight budget and continue to exercise restraint.  I do think some of these statistics are bogus and/or do not express the true nature of what is going on.

Like Mark Twain said "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."

On the flipside, I do think that large segment of the population who is in debt originally went into a deleveraging mode with the S first hit the F.

Now, after taking on the revolving credit issues due to higher rates, many may have stalled due to low rates.  Either they have been lulled to sleep by the low cost to carry debt combined with economic uncertainly (holding cash), and/or they actively expect debt or the banks or both to blow up and don't want to send good money chasing bad money.

Either way, spending might tick up a little as the population becomes numb and/or says "fuck it, we are all screwed, so I might as well have a iPhone."

Just thoughts

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:11 | 1773319 Lone Mad Minute...
Lone Mad Minute Medic's picture

I believe that small uptick in retail sales comes from three paychecks in sept.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:15 | 1773338 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

45,000 Verizon workers ended the strike and went back to work. They had to put gas in their cars...hence the uptick.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:11 | 1773321 pauhana
pauhana's picture

True.  If the cost of everything you buy goes up, retail sales will look up as well but the hit to the pocketbook will affect how you feel about that spending - not so good.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:25 | 1773410 Raynja
Raynja's picture

Exactly, its not schizophrenia, its stagflation.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:22 | 1773779 AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

Actually, it's screwflation - higher prices, lower salaries... Thanks Ben!!

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:12 | 1773322 sabra1
sabra1's picture

no santa claus for you, forever!!!!

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:13 | 1773326 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Tyler, I think you fail to understand that the market is merely celebrating the crushing of all middle class hopes. That was, after all, the goal.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:13 | 1773327 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

A few people pointed out that retails sales was all seasonal-adjustment.  Not one category of the report should an actual increase in sales.

I am curious where Tyler got his "everyone expects Dow 36,000" info from.  I love seeing sentiment indicators on Wall Street.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:17 | 1773363 Corn1945
Corn1945's picture

The retail sales numbers just don't jive with the other data out there: stagnant income, no real credit growth, high unemployment, and abysmal confidence readings.

I can only think of three things:

1) The gains are really from inflation because I'm pretty sure the numbers are not adjusted for inflation.

2) The rich command so much purchasing power that they alone drive retail sales.

3) The data is seasonally adjusted to show gains (ie, made up)

 

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:49 | 1773574 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

4).....the numbers are bullshit, like all the others. Did they get BLS to figure their "numbers"?

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:09 | 1773930 s2man
s2man's picture

5) You are a prepper.  Your confidence is in the shitter, and you turn every FRN you can into phsyical stuff.

Prep on

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 19:27 | 1775720 BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture

Food stamps can buy a whole crapload of rice, beans, sugar, spam, and bottled water.  Not everyone spends it all on steak, lobster and pepsi.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:14 | 1773332 Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

the recent spending/sales spike was just school supply shopping and some Gov't motors hand outs (via cheap loans).

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:14 | 1773333 Sandy15
Sandy15's picture

Buying extra food, ammo, water and gold will send retail sales higher.

However confidence in other spending is practically zero..........

I'm just sayin'...............

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:14 | 1773334 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

Could this be the Blow Off Top of the spending Mania?

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:22 | 1773392 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Are you refering to Mises "Crack up Boom!"  then yes!

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:14 | 1773335 Racer
Racer's picture

and all the retail sales 'improvements' were just made up

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:16 | 1773343 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Retail sales are NOT adjusted for inflation and htat is the thing that makes up for the massive difference. It's NOT REAL gains, it's INFLATION.

Even though Chairsatan uses fabricated CPI-index to show that there's no inflation to justify printing trillions out of thin air in order to keep the zombie banks alive, it def does not mean that there's not inflation in the real world.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:16 | 1773352 Iam Rich
Iam Rich's picture

Denninger has a good analysis, at least for this months data... 

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=195952

Bottomline, m/o/m is in the shitter and all gains are due to seasonal adjustments.  Stupidity wrapped in retardation.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:22 | 1773399 Hohum
Hohum's picture

That's interesting.  I think it's also useful to look at one year ago (non-adjusted).  I didn't blow up the graph, but I think Sept 2011 numbers are a little higher than Sept 2010.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:31 | 1773461 Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

They are higher in total by about 8%.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:16 | 1773353 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Somebody is Lying?  Government or consumer?  I wonder.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:16 | 1773354 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

That´s what Mises called a crack up boom, a rush out of cash into tangible assets:

http://blog.mises.org/10902/goyette-were-near-the-crack-up-boom/

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:40 | 1773884 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

Yeah ... tangible assets, like anything that can be had at a $.99 store.

Cars are tangible assets ... until they are driven off the lot losing 30% of their value instantly.

Houses just lost another 5%. Look out below.

What crackup boom? Everyone is broke (except in the DC area, home of the United States Treasury).

The consumption figures are lies. The government permanently lies.

Looking for gas prices to run back up to the $4 per gallon level one last time, I doubt prices will get that high. People are broke and won't spend the money.

Gasoline isn't an asset.

Stock market swindlers are telling each other the European crisis is over while having the computers trade that one share of Amazon stock back and forth a few billion times per day. Some asset(s) ...

More wishcasting for hyper-inflation which ain't gonna happen. Nobody has any money.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:17 | 1773355 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Paper and reality divereging all over the place.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:18 | 1773365 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Things are pretty much horrid, but not really getting any worse.  Mauldin's "Muddle Through" economy.

Imagine what the S & P 500 is going to do when things actually start improving.  Could be a real shocker.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:22 | 1773397 Corn1945
Corn1945's picture

You said a few weeks ago we were going to revisit the March 09 lows.

Why the sudden change?

Are you the one who calculates the retail sales numbers?

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:27 | 1773432 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Tom O'Brien said we could go down to the March 2009 lows again, but that was invalidated when the NY Composite got back into the trading range.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:31 | 1773465 Corn1945
Corn1945's picture

I don't care what Tom O'Brien said.

You stated that we would revisit the March 09 lows.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:52 | 1773586 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

I green arrowed you because I feel sorry for you RobotRetard

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:12 | 1774066 s2man
s2man's picture

I red arrowed you because of your avatar

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:25 | 1773411 jdelano
jdelano's picture

Too jaded to even bother junking you anymore.  Carry on Robo.  You know what I'd like to know though--what's your angle?  Why do you play the charging bull so persistently?  Do you really only know how to ride the market one way or are you in fact a paid schill?  Or worse, do you actually think America can continue to have a stable "low growth" environment while the rest of the world collapses around it?  

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:28 | 1773447 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Rest of the world is doing measurably better ... while here in the states companies and people are struggling. S&P 500 being mostly now internationally focused can show decent earnings. The problem for instance is a company like GAP who is looking to open new stores in China(300% growth there) and at the same time close down stores here in the US. That is a wtf moment for all of us here in the states and we should all be aware of the implications.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:35 | 1773490 jdelano
jdelano's picture

you are very badly misinformed.  'Rest of the world doing measurably better...'  

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:39 | 1773499 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

measurably may have been too strong a word. Don't get me wrong I am not bullish at all. Shade better might be a better word. The thrust of my point is that companies that have exposure outside of the US are showing decent earnings results and those that only have exposure internally in the US are struggling.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:41 | 1773531 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The rest of the world has learned to accept less consumption in their lifestyle.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:47 | 1773558 jdelano
jdelano's picture

okay--but I listen to what you're saying and I hear you groping for any thin reason for the market to go up in the face of a thousand reasons why it should go down.  Earnings have nowhere to go but down--for international as well as domestic corporations.  The world is cooling.  Should p/e go up for the MCDs and the Coca-Colas?  Maybe.  But the CATs etc should get smashed.  Markets are forward looking. Guidance, when it is realistic, is going to poor, and when it is exuberant, with all but a few exceptions, it is going to be a crock of shit.  I cannot comprehend why so many reasonably intelligent people are fighting that so hard, almost desperately hard.  It reminds me, uncannily, of 08. 

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:59 | 1773593 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

No other way to explain the GOOG earnings or the expected Apple sales of their new phone. Certainly I don't see it coming from US sales. BTW I'm loaded on the short side and I am playing the market as I see it running into huge resistance right here. As a trader you have to use a sense of wht others are trading on right or wrong and not just your own opinions.

One other overriding factor above all others is the weaker dollar over the last week or so has caused the stock market to go higher.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:30 | 1773825 jdelano
jdelano's picture

I explain goog earnings by Groupon spending a half trillion in advertising to get 3 paying customers.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:18 | 1773368 Lord Blankcheck
Lord Blankcheck's picture

Apply Benford's Law to Goverment numbers.See what kind of deviation there is with those numbers.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:19 | 1773373 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Looks like 1220 hit strong resistance.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:20 | 1773383 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Here is why retail sales are rising...store closures.  It only counts stores open at the beginning AND ending measurement period.

 

store a: sales last month 40, sales this month 48

store b: sales last month 40, sales this month 48

store c: sales last month 20, store closed

Retail sales are down 4%....???....no

The way retail sales are measured they are up 20% (96\80)

 

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:27 | 1773434 Iam Rich
Iam Rich's picture

Interesting.  I know Mish usually is all over this "phenomenon".  Further, based upon his typical approach, I think a look at the sales tax receipts would be a good place to start to see a confirmation of the retail sales numbers.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 19:37 | 1775746 BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture

Green arrow away.  This is especially true in over-saturated markets.  If BigCo Drug has 5 stores in the city, close two, and the remaining three only get 10% of the closed store's customers each, "Same Store Sales" (the market metric) says they're up 10% YoY, instead of down 70%.  Growth!

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 22:04 | 1776066 Bob Sacamano
Bob Sacamano's picture

Incorrect.  This retail sales report is not same store (or comp store) sales.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:21 | 1773391 gringo28
gringo28's picture

two words: stag flation

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:26 | 1773808 AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

One word: screwflation

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:21 | 1773394 Lady Heather...UNCLE
Lady Heather...UNCLE's picture

bullish

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:24 | 1773405 cbaba
cbaba's picture

Its inflation.

I have purchased a 4.4oz chocolate( made in USA) two days ago 10.12.11  ( Lint classic recipe-hazelnut) for $2.48  in Walmart.

I have checked my old receipts and found that I had purchased the exactly same 4.4oz chocolate about 5 months ago 05.11.11 for $2.18 in the same Walmart.

Thats a stunning 13.7% increase in only 5 months.

 

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:45 | 1773552 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Strange, considering cocoa, has gone down.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/COCOA

 

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:27 | 1773408 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Santa Claus rally in October!.. its going to be a LOONG WInter.  Keep shopping sheeple Xmas is only 12 weeks away.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:25 | 1773417 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

The data is easily understood if you look at it from the perspective of a prepper.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:26 | 1773420 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

SBUX now at world record highs with 9% unemployment.

Amazing.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 14:38 | 1774684 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

"World record"?  Who talks like that about stock prices?  STFU.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:28 | 1773443 unky
unky's picture

I believe the surge in retail sales is due to sales of precious metals. That would explain record retail sales while sentiment is bad.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:30 | 1773457 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Retail sales are not keeping up with inflation.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:32 | 1773471 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Makes perfect sense in todays world.  People who are not confident about the economy spend more money. lol!

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:33 | 1773478 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Reality-disreality spread in colorful graphics.  Joy!

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:39 | 1773489 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

what will they do without the pied piper of electronic items.  develop new gizmo.. display at over hyped corp event.. sheeple stand and applaud and are led out the door to best buy. repeat as necessary.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 13:52 | 1774523 Esso
Esso's picture

Oooooooooo, are you saying the new iDooDad is out?

Howfastisit?How manygigsisit?Doesithavethelatest&greatestunobtainiumbatteries?WhenisBestBuygoingtostartsellingit?Ooooooooooo,Ican'twait!

Drool. [/sheeple]

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:37 | 1773502 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Two words:  Peak Manipulation

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:39 | 1773511 rocketboy
rocketboy's picture

Possibly the hoarding has begun in earnest?

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:39 | 1773513 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Answer; The government is still buying.  

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:40 | 1773516 digalert
digalert's picture

I'll up you a thousand

DOW 37,000!

...and I have a CNBS tattoo on my ass.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:40 | 1773520 The Axe
The Axe's picture

This is because my neighbors don't pay their mortgage, yet they are all in line at the apple store today, eating lunch at the Chipotle Grill, then going to buy their kids some Uggs. I, however, am enjoying 1/2 of a tuna sandwich.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:08 | 1773679 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

I've got neighbors like that too. Lost their house, kept their late model car, big screen tv's & direct tv whilst living in relatives basement, continue to go to pro baseball and football games... Ain't life grand? Party on dudes!

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:41 | 1773525 rocketboy
rocketboy's picture

Possibly the hoarding has begun in earnest?

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:42 | 1773535 cdude
cdude's picture

How much of the retail "boost" can be attributed to hurricane Irene?

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:43 | 1773542 LarryC
LarryC's picture

Read this for yourself. All increases were seasonal adjustments.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:44 | 1773547 LarryC
Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:44 | 1773548 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

Buy rice , you can eat it , there will be a shortage soon .I live in North Dakota on average the harvest has been down about 30% (not corn) but USDA says we have had a good harvest (bull shit) once they have sold all the food to china they will revise the figures ( around Jan) to say it has not been as good as projected.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:04 | 1773651 beaker
beaker's picture

Shitty corn yields in MO, too.  Beans ok.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:20 | 1773765 adr
adr's picture

I love our globalist corporate farms. Selling out Americans to feed the Chinese because the communists will pay more.

Pretty soon the FDA and the IRS will put every single independent farmer out of business and just like the Ukraine, Americans will be starving next to full field of grain surrounded by fences and armed guards.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:34 | 1774101 kennard
kennard's picture

Split peas are cheap and are high in the limiting amino acids in wheat: lysine, methionine and threonine. Combine this with pasta and you have all the essential amino acids, permitting you to remove expensive animal products from your diet. It'll get you by. So there is the solution to world hunger. I'm surprised that the guns and gold crowd isn't discussing this.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:23 | 1774104 kennard
kennard's picture

x

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:45 | 1773550 LarryC
LarryC's picture

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:49 | 1773573 djsmps
djsmps's picture

So Jeetner is going to bail out Europe's banks now. http://www.cnbc.com/id/44902075

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:17 | 1773717 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

The German people don't want to pay for Euro bank mistakes so this ASSHOLE decides that Americans should step in and bail 'em out?!? F'ing bastards! Why are the OWS bunch not all over this? F'ing tools. I guess I'm a sucker too, as all I can do is gripe on a keyboard as I have a family to feed...

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:00 | 1773616 WoodMizer
WoodMizer's picture

The shit is gonna hit the fan! I need get the new IPhone, so I can save myself.

I love Amerikan reasoning.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 10:59 | 1773618 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

How much of that rise is accountable in people buying guns and ammo? Sturm Ruger stock skyrocketed last year. Most guns are between $200-$500. That's a whole lot of discretionary income for most families.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:03 | 1773640 beaker
beaker's picture

Mean-reversion, anyone?

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:10 | 1773688 jtlien
jtlien's picture

If your current job is looking like it is going to go over a precipice

it is best to go out and finance that car loan now so that you will at

least have wheels when TSHTF.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:13 | 1773711 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

first they outsource the workers

then they outsource the consumers

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:14 | 1773714 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I am in the Long Term Care industry as a wholesaler and on a peer call it was commented that sales are down in the last month or so.  They blamed it on everything under the sun except the economy.  I forwarded this.

Was I the only one that remembered 2008?

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:15 | 1773725 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

your consumers probably can't remember what they had for breakfast

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:16 | 1773726 adr
adr's picture

I really don't understand how seasonal adjustments work. It makes no sense.

If consumers spent $10 in August and spent $8 in September, how can you adjust spending to $11 in September based on a seasonal adjustment? You can;t just make up money that wasn't there. If a guy spent a dollar he spent a dollar. I guess because of a seasonal adjustment he spent $1.50 even though he only had $1 in his wallet.

That is actually exactly what happened.

Only in US economics can spending less actually count as spending more.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:18 | 1773743 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

One is measured in $$$ the other is based on people interviewed; therefore, what we are seeing is further evidence that a few have most of the $$$$.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:20 | 1773761 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

One month doesn't equal recovery. Consumer gloom (mostly about housing) AND import prices rose 13.4% YOY. Now THAT will add to consumer gloom!

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com

 

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:26 | 1773809 andyupnorth
andyupnorth's picture

On a similar topic, I would love for Tyler or someone to look into this:

Look at the Baltic Dry Index over the past five years, and comparing it to the DOW or TSX. It seems to have been nicely correlated up until August 2010, where they diverge drastically.

It really resembles the confidence vs. sales presented above...

So what's the root cause? What happened in mid 2010? Was it QE?

I just want to know in order to get a glimpse of the future and invest accordingly...

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:31 | 1773830 reason_1
reason_1's picture

Binge bling buying before filing for bk.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:35 | 1773855 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Crack up Boom:

This first stage of the inflationary process may last for many years. While it lasts, the prices of many goods and services are not yet adjusted to the altered money relation. There are still people in the country who have not yet become aware of the fact that they are confronted with a price revolution which will finally result in a considerable rise of all prices, although the extent of this rise will not be the same in the various commodities and services. These people still believe that prices one day will drop. Waiting for this day, they restrict their purchases and concomitantly increase their cash holdings. As long as such ideas are still held by public opinion, it is not yet too late for the government to abandon its inflationary policy.

But then, finally, the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against ‘real’ goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them.

 

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:36 | 1773857 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

When folks get depressed, the depressed go shopping!

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:52 | 1773960 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

The non-M1 components of M2 are primarily household holdings of savings deposits, time deposits, and retail money market mutual funds. bullandbearwise.com

 

just guessing that this component of M2 is being counted (perhaps against consumer debt), we know M2 is parabolic, because the FED parks money in M2, and now Euro-M2. Otherwise these numbers make no sense. this is wildly speculative, FED parks money in M2, the stats people count all debt vs all assets and come up with their number?

someone said government is buying, well this is one way for them to buy consumer debt, at least on paper, pump up MM funds.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 11:56 | 1773982 ian807
ian807's picture

I don't have to ask my grandparents to recognize Stalinist numbers when I see them. I can gin up numbers too. They mean  just about as much as the patterns of sheep livers, but don't cook as well.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:17 | 1774085 s2man
s2man's picture

That's 5 votes for preping and 4 for inflation

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 12:37 | 1774194 zerozam
zerozam's picture

cooking the books + bull trap?

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 14:06 | 1774560 Blackface
Blackface's picture

What inflation? Groupthink gone wrong for how many consecutive years now?  I just got free Sunday ticket bitches- how about that for deflation.  And $5 footlongs, come on people.  Clothing is cheap as shit now, except for the idiot paying a grand for a scarf.  Quik Trip sodas are a steal now.  For 59c, holy shit you can get a lot of soda.  

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 14:51 | 1774732 skunzie
skunzie's picture

This chart makes perfect sense to me.  Consumers know that the economy is tanking, so now is the best time to buy stuff, knowing that very, very soon our money will be worthless.  Could be people are wising up to the coming disaster and stocking the pantry.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 16:07 | 1775054 Alpha Monkey
Alpha Monkey's picture

Which will signal increased demand, which signals increased pricing, which signals increased production, which causes prices on everything to increase, which compounds price increases, which tells people to get more while they can, which leads to out of stock basic necessities, which leads to panic buying, which leads to... hyperinflation.  Printing not required.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 15:04 | 1774819 nonplused
nonplused's picture

It just means inflation has finally run head into "non-discretionary spending".  Toilet paper must be up.

Next up: misery.  Once you can't afford the "non-discretionary" part of "living", life starts to suck.  Imagine not being able to afford toilet paper.

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 16:15 | 1775085 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

W T F!?

Fri, 10/14/2011 - 17:13 | 1775341 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

The Gap is just folks not paying their mortgage, but even though they are all miserable as fuck they are still spending their money on retail purchases!

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