US Debt Ceiling D-Day: September 14, 2012

Tyler Durden's picture

Earlier today, outgoing Treasury Secretary and tax challenged part-time pathological liar (see here) Tim Geithner said that any worries of the US debt ceiling are misplaced, and that at best such an event would occur "late in the year" (and to think the August 2011 extended $16.394 trillion debt ceiling was supposed to last well into 2013). Naturally, coming from Geithner, it meant this statement was a flat out lief the second it left his mouth, which is why we decided to do our own analysis of just when the latest and greatest debt ceiling would be breached. The answer is that at the current rate of debt issuance, which incidentally is going to accelerate sharply due to the recent extension of the payroll tax cuts which will require an incremental $100-150 billion total debt to be funded, and extrapolating future issuance solely on historical patterns, the US debt ceiling D-Day will be September 14, 2012. This means that there will be just over 6 weeks for the GOP to hijack each and every presidential debate before the November election with just this topic. Because there will hardly be anything more humiliating for Obama than to have to defend his platform even as the country is once again past the verge of insolvency, and forced to "commingle" retirement funds to keep Treasury operations running. Which incidentally is just as we predicted would happen when we explained why the GOP fast shelved the payroll tax debate so rapidly. It was nothing but a prelude to precisely this. Because once it is raised, and it will be raised of course, next up will be yet another ratings downgrade by S&P and this time, Moody's as well. All of which will most likely happen before November.

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Sudden Debt's picture

I see.... I see.... A TRENDLINE!!

I guess Obama will need to be more flexible after the elections because if they throw him in the white house dumpsters he'll need to BEND LIKE BECKHAM if he doesn't want to break his neck!

And if he does get reelected...(my god) he can always lend more money from his Russian mob friends.

RiotActing's picture

Dude, where have you been? Obama is a JP Morgan lock... IF ha!

knukles's picture

Why did Tyler call Geithner "outgoing"?
He always impressed me as a sort of shy fellow. 
Kind of nervous; almost insecure as a matter of fact....

Tom Servo's picture

I think "outgoing" means that he's got one foot out the door.  GTFO TIMMEH, you've done enough already, you no talent assclown.

cossack55's picture

One foot in the grave would be a happier ending.

Chump's picture

And we interrupt this broadcast to mourn the passing of one of the most innovative and legendary musicians this world has seen.

I weep, but Earl, you are with your wife and son, and Lester, and the entire host of the Angel Band.

I could go on and on but I've threadjacked enough.  You will be missed, always, Earl Scruggs.


BlackholeDivestment's picture

Awe man, bummer. Earl was great. I got a chance to spend some time with Earl. He came through D.C. with Ricky Scaggs and Doc Watson, after doing a gig, think it was 02 or 03. He was looking prettty well along then. Seemed like he had diabetes to me but, I did not talk to him about that. Just told him how much I and all the people I know love his playing. He gave me an autograph, which I gave to a friend as a gift. 

  Can't wait to see him again soon, when he wakes up.

Chump's picture

Thanks so much for sharing that.  He changed my life.  Another song from that session (Soldier's Joy - The Three Pickers) is what convinced me to pick up the banjo.  I will forever be following in his footsteps.

Caviar Emptor's picture

Great musician and composer

nmewn's picture

I remember the meme of how Timmah was the only one who could save us...every pol within sprinting distance of an MSM microphone told us so...Give Us Timmah or Give Us Death!...or some

The only one who understood intimately, these "very complex financial instruments"...was, Turbo Tax Timmah!

I just don't see what's so hard about callin up Ben and telling him to warm up the presses he's gotta go scare the crap out of granny again.

Eat your peas!

jeff314's picture

live in lie timmahhhhh

ChrisFromMorningside's picture

That's because the typical U.S. Congressperson is a complete and utter moron when it comes to finance and money. The average ZeroHedge reader easily understands the U.S.'s macro financial structure far, far better than 95% of Congress. I say that in all seriousness. I am not trying to be hyperbolic. The politicians just want to pass the buck. They know they're too stupid to truly understand what's going on, let alone offer a solution, so they pass the responsibility onto someone else, which also gives them an out if and when (when!) it all goes to pieces.


Chump's picture

They know how to pass legislation.  That's it.

Please note, that doesn't mean they know how to read it.

BoNeSxxx's picture

Having worked in Congress for five years during my early career, I can tell you that your comment is more accurate than you may think.

On the committee level, they are pretty well versed in the issues but that's where it stops for most of them.

Each morning, the parties put out their vote recommendations (down to the amendment level) and most Congressmen follow the script unless their district (or they personally) have something to lose by following the recommended vote.

What little reading is done by staff or supplied in summary form by the parties or committee chair.

Granted, it would be near impossible to read every bill but one need look no farther than the NDAA to see that, even when considering critical legislation, there are many who enjoy the warm darkness that having their heads up their arses provides.

peekcrackers's picture

"Treasury Secretary and tax challenged part-time pathological liar"

 I raise my glass of scotch to that tyler!

here here...

hairball48's picture

He's a shifty-eyed lil weasel fucker is what Timmay is. I never trust anyone who won't look you directly in the eye!

Hal n back's picture

They will just not fund federal pensions or borrow from federal pensions or social security--check that--Clinton already borrowed from social security trust fund.

Or they just cook the books.

POpatriot's picture

Beautiful!  The current administration is obviously terrible at math.  The projected debt ceiling debate date is no different.  LOVE IT!!!  The few luxuries of having our current administration's expertise in community organizing.  

ChrisFromMorningside's picture

Some people are getting it.

New Zealand Herald: Now is the time to de-Ponzi our pensions

Terra-Firma's picture

The USA has helicpoter Ben, Canada has tracker trailer bob....

Millions of dollars in coins and a shipment of candy have been scattered across an Ontario highway following the crash of Brink's tractor-trailer that seriously injured two people.

Police say both of the men who were in the Brink's truck are in hospital with life-threatening injuries.

The crash happened around 4 a.m. this morning on Highway 11, north of Kirkland Lake in northeastern Ontario, when the truck collided with a rock face.

Ontario Provincial Police say the crash also caused a number of chain-reaction crashes, but the injuries were minor.

One of the trucks involved in the resulting crashes was carrying candy, police say.

That candy along with $3- to $5-million worth of loonies and toonies are on the road and in the surrounding bush.

The highway has been closed by police, who are essentially standing guard.

It will be several hours before it re-opens.

SAT 800's picture

The highway has been closed by Police; who are essentially picking up huge piles of money and stashing it, so they can come back later and pick it up.

dark pools of soros's picture

3-5 million?? Ben would cook that up on a cocktail napkin instead of printing that chump change

DormRoom's picture

pretty sure debt jubilee will be announced in 2013, once China has been contained (already dozens of army bases surround her), and the US controls the Strait of Hormuz oil.

 The US has never exercised austerity, and anytime it confronts it, it goes to war.  just sayin'. 


Debt jubilee will be announced, one way or another.

Zero Govt's picture

probably the other 

but if we're looking for some comedy in these grizzly debt proceedings will 'Super Committee' be called upon to (not) perform again?

I hope Superman sues the politicians for trashing the word as well as the country

AGuy's picture

Julibee happens when the dollar is worthless and the USA transformes into the DSA - Divided States of America.


Ned Zeppelin's picture

There will be no debt jubilee unless the Rebels succeed. The Empire will enforce all fiat debts at gunpoint.

Mark it.

ChrisFromMorningside's picture


Debt jubilee is inevitable. War is probably inevitable at this point (at the very least, VERY LIKELY). The U.S. political class will do ANYTHING to prevent austerity. Austerity would compromise their power. Money is just a means to an end. Power is their goal.

Don't know if I agree that China will be "contained" by 2013 however. Potential black swan event(s) -- domestic political unrest within the Chinese Communist Party that shakes up leadership. Namely, we're talking about populist factions within the PLA that are unhappy with the pro-Western technocratic clique that dominates the party currently.

Bloomberg: Wen warns of potential second Cultural Revolution -

In the absence of political change, Wen said China risked a repeat of the 1966-76 Cultural Revolution, which threw the nation into chaos as Chairman Mao Zedong's Red Guards attacked the party apparatus and persecuted millions of people.


Wen’s warnings on the dangers of returning to the chaos of the Cultural Revolution contrast with the policies of Chongqing Communist Party Secretary Bo Xilai, who has encouraged a resurgence of Mao-era songs and sayings to broaden his appeal to ordinary Chinese who feel bruised by 30-plus years of modernization.

Asia Times: Rumors of coup in Beijing are result of growing economic divide -

The coup canard-mongers contended that the PLA had decided to intervene on behalf of Bo and his neo-Maoist comrades against the "Shanghai leadership faction", which had been steering China's economic reform juggernaut after the demise of Deng Xiaoping in the early 1990s.

While the PLA is not entirely pro-Maoist, there are senior figures within the Chinese military who share Bo's ideology of rejecting "capitalist roaders" and reversing the party's adoption of partial free market strategies.

Bo's reputation in Chongqing was forged in a merciless "strike hard" campaign against corporate malpractices and white collar crimes that are on the rise across China in the wake of dozens of new billionaires being minted every year.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard on the rise of young, nationalist officers within the PLA -

“The young officers are taking control of strategy and it is like young officers in Japan in the 1930s. They are thinking what they can do, not what they should do. This is very dangerous.

“They are on a collision course with a US-dominated system”.

Anyone who thinks that China's course for the next decade has been charted is about to get a rude awakening. When (not if) China has to undergo its own bout of contraction and deleveraging, the Shanghai clique will lose (some) power and that vacuum will be filled by the PLA. Western markets are going to shit their pants when they see young, nationalist, populist, anti-U.S. PLA officers playing a much greater role in policy making and, at the moment, no one is expecting it.

akak's picture

Running dog nose-pickingism!

asteroids's picture

When does CONgress retire for the election period?

dwdollar's picture

Probably after they give themselves another pay raise.

nmewn's picture

And...tuck that Cannot Convict a Congresscritter for Insider Trading Rule back in some boring piece of legislation that no one bothers to read.

suckerfishzilla's picture

Excellent timing!  Too bad Romney is from the same ball of wax. 

Freddie's picture

Supposedly Romney and Obama are JP Morgan puppets.  Ron Paul is so buddy buddy with Romney that he is probably one too.   Maybe Santorum is a little better. 

Sudden Debt's picture

Actually.... Why not declare A ANUAL NATIONAL DEBT BREACH DAY?
5th of July kind of thing, you know, with fireworks and all?

ISEEIT's picture


Freudian slip or a personal kink?

meetired's picture

What do expect from a crazy potato, for which English is a second language?

Then again....

SAT 800's picture

It all makes perfect sense if you're a Walloon, and speak Flemish. (I'm not making this up).

ISEEIT's picture

This Tyler doesn't spell very well.

But he/she is still correct.:)

UP Forester's picture

2003?  Wasn't the economy "growing" at that time?

This really does mean we're in a recovery!

Chump's picture

Yep.  So buy my house.  Many thanks.

bob_dabolina's picture

I think the funny thing is that Obama thinks he's doing a good job.

He has botched his Presidency so bad, and indebted our country so far it has crossed the rubicon of rationality.

He has fucked our country up, trampled the constitution seemingly every day, and doesn't act the roll (or his family) Ever see Michele strolling out wearing some shit that looks like it came from some Tribe in Somalia - have some fucking class for christ sakes.

Not like the Congress or Senate are much better.

One last thing. FUCK TRAYVON MARTIN. Welcome to planet Earth people, we fuckin' eachother. Like this is the first victim of violence people have ever heard about. Shut the fuck up and grow up people.

mr. mirbach's picture

The TRUTH about Obama:   As per NWO puppet master marching orders, Obama IS doing a good job! 

Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Well, Barry's mentor is Bill Ayers, convicted terrorist who has spent his entire life trying to bring down the USA. Looks like Bill picked the right horse to back.

CompassionateFascist's picture

Shabbatz Goy Ayers is nothing. The cop-killing, bomb-thowing Jew wife (now a "Distinguished Professor of Law") whispers in Bill's ear, then he picks up the phone and calls Obama. U.S. is run by Zionist banksters...and a Red Jewess.