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As US Decouples From World, Stocks Decouple From USD
UPDATE: ORCL missed. $8.8bn Rev vs $9.23bn exp., 54c EPS vs 57c exp. - Stock -9% AH
With ES (the e-mini S&P futures contract) managing to pull over 40 points off overnight lows (bringing back memories of the 11/30 global bailout rampfest), we saw correlated risk assets disconnect one by one as the day proceeded. First to leave the party was FX carry (or more simply the USD) just before Europe closed. Then Gold stabilized and stopped accelerating and credit markets also went only gently higher/stable in the afternoon. Oil kept on lifting with stocks - helping Energy stocks lead the way (up over 4% on the day) - but even Oil went flat within an hour or so of the close. The only other asset that seemed to be correlating and self-reinforcing was the Treasury complex - most specifically the 10Y and the 2s10s30s butterfly but it was the former that had the highest correlation overall and kept going right to the end. Volume did die away towards the end but surged right at the close as average trade size picked up and ES started to roll over a little - pros selling into the close? Who knows but there was little else supporting ES up here on the day and with the 'news' ahead on LTRO take-up - maybe better safe than sorry.
ES and TSYs stayed tick for tick as most other risk assets (specifically DXY above) fell away as the day wore on. With an hour to go Financials were the clear winners on the day having trumped Energy stocks, but by the close Financials had lost their leadership role and were over 0.5% off the highs of the day. Of course that didn't take the shine off the day for JEF longs but we remind them that remain long after hours, we have seen these kind of Euro-related jumps before in this non-belwether belwether stock and while bonds did rally today - nothing like as positively as the squeeze in stocks would suggest. Also - and we are reaching here - MS, BAC, and C are still down for the week here as we close - despite a solid up move today.
HYG continues to outperform - pulling healthily off the late day dive yesterday. We can't help but get more and more suspicious that whenever we see a decent dive in HYG, the market comes roaring back but maybe that's just our paranoia. ES did outperform broad IG and HY credit this afternoon.
Commodities broadly rose on the equity exuberance with Oil up almost 4% on the week and Copper 1.5% but as is clear in the chart - the afternoon saw relative stability in the face of another 1-1.5% extension in US equity markets. Gold is outperforming the USD this week handily as Silver disappoints so far.
We know it might sound a little silly but this did not feel like a huge short squeeze in other than a few specific names - when we look at the performance of the most shorted names for instance, it was consistently 0.5% outperforming the broad market all day and did not accelerate as it typically does when short squeeezes come on...this felt more like a low volume melt up from an overshoot last night supported by hope for tomorrow - we will see.
UPDATE: ORCL chart - huge volume dump and -9% after hours.
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SOPA Alert!
Special session of the House Judiciary Committee meets tomorrow, Dec. 21 at 9:00 a.m. to mark-up SOPA and ram it out of committee, while the opposition Congressman are on vacation.
You can verify it with the Official House schedule.
http://www.house.gov/legislative/date/2011-12-21
If SOPA get’s out unto the floor it will be too late to stop it.
For SOPA to be stopped, it has to be killed in committee.
Just like the fast one they pulled with the 'Indefinite Detention Bill', they had everyone placated with the idea ObaMao would veto it...it SAILED thru the senate and congress with almost 100% yes votes, and Obama did sign it after all. This bill with SOPA turns us into China, at best...yet no one cares, its all good because stocks are up.
And...and...and...Santa Claus is coming to town.
And...and...and...the Little Baby New Year is going to excrete rainbow-colored Skittles in lieu of shit.
And...and...and...the NBA season begins on Christmas!
Yay! We're the land of the free and the home of the brave!
Now where is my remote control? The latest "Toddlers and Tiaras" is on.
You forgot the magical Bank of America stock rally today.
its not even back to friday's close
Good point.
It will make me hate myself less as I sit here in cash today.
While everyone is convinced we just 'muddle thru', I think just the opposite will happen starting in Jan as these 2 bills are the last hoop they needed to clear before the rug gets pulled out. We'll be like China, with a censored closely watched internet like China, and if you say anything, well off ya go! 'Hey, whatever happened to Dave'? Just gone 1 nite, 'Indefinite Detention' they dont even need to provide a reason YOU are an 'enemy combatant' an enemy of the Gubment, so into a dark cell you go. People cant say thats 'conspiracy kook theories' because all one has to do is READ these bills, George Washingtons blog has been doing a good job laying it all out, to see this is a total suspension of rights. Theyve got something big planned next.
I agree. Safe bet we're all on the watch list already for "free thinking". And now that they've raped us financially for almost 100 years, its time to ecscalate the pain. Then TPTB will swoop in to save us with total and utter enslavement.
God bless AmeriKa.
This is the end of provocative posts on ZH, chilling effect, as you will get a visit @ 3:00am to be hauled off to FEMADIS... This is not funny,,, they are actually staffing these camps as we speak...Sheep’s got it right, if you have a EX-PAT plan, invoke it now...head for the horizon.
And the hottest selling item this Christmas (at least in Texas) is GUNS!!!! The founding fathers knew what it was all about so many years ago.
Will it happen? I hope not, but if the government thinks this will be a easy task....they have another thing coming.
here in ky too
This is a sneak maneuver by the industry shill, Representative Lamar Smith. Just like how they passed the Federal Reserve Act while the majority of Congress was on Christmas vacation.
They are doing it this way because they think they have stealth. If you care about the internet call these people and let them know they don't:
The members of the House Judiciary Committee by rank.
Chairman:
Lamar Smith (R) Texas, 21st district
Washington, DC Office Phone: 202-225-4236
Ranking Member:
John Conyers jr. (D) Michigan, 14th district
Washington, DC Office Phone: 202-225-5126
Jim Sensenbrenner, (R)Wisconsin 5th
DC Office Phone: 202- 225-5101
Howard Berman, (D) California 28th
DC Phone: 202-225-4695
Howard Coble, (R) North Carolina 6th
Phone: 202- 225-3065
Jerrold Nadler, (D) New York, 8th
202- 225-5635.
Elton Gallegly, (R) California, 24th
202- 225-5811
Bobby Scott, (D) Virginia, 3rd
202- 225-8351
Bob Goodlatte, (R) Virginia, 6th
202- 225-5431
Mel Watt, (D) North Carolina, 12th
202- 225-1510
Dan Lungren, (R) California, 3rd
202-225-5716
Zoe Lofgren, (D) California, 16th
202- 225-3072
Steve Chabot, (R) Ohio, 1st
202- 225-2216
Sheila Jackson-Lee, (D) Texas, 18th
202-225-3816
Darrell Issa, (R) California, 49th
202-225-3906
Maxine Waters, (D) California, 35th
202- 225-2201
Mike Pence, (R) Indiana, 6th
202- 225-3021
Steve Cohen, (D) Tennessee, 9th
202-225-3265
Randy Forbes, (R) Virginia, 4th
202- 225-6365
Hank Johnson, (D) Georgia, 4th
202- 225-1605
Steve King, (R) Iowa, 5th
202-.225-4426
Pedro Pierluisi, (D) Puerto Rico, Resident Commissioner
202- 225-2615
Trent Franks, (R) Arizona, 2nd
202-225-4576
Michael Quigley,(D) Illinois, 5th
202-225-4061
Louie Gohmert, (R) Texas, 1st
202- 225-3035
Judy Chu, (D) California, 32nd
202- 225-5464
Jim Jordan, (R) Ohio, 4th
202- 225-2676
Ted Deutch, (D) Florida, 19th
202-225-3001
Ted Poe, (R) Texas, 2nd
202- 225-6565
Linda Sánchez, (D) California, 39th
202-225-6676
Jason Chaffetz, (R) Utah, 3rd
202-225-7751
Jared Polis, (D) Colorado, 2nd
202- 225-2161
Timothy Griffin, (R) Arkansas, 2nd
202- 225-2506
Tom Marino, (R) Pennsylvania, 10th
202- 225-3731
Trey Gowdy, (R) South Carolina, 4th
202--225-6030
Dennis A. Ross, (R) Florida, 12th
202- 225-1252
Sandy Adams, (R) Florida, 24th
202- 225-2706
Ben Quayle, (R) Arizona, 3rd
202-225-3361
Mark Amodei, (R) Nevada, 2nd
202-225-6155
Call them and tell them to vote "no" and kill SOPA in the committee.
THE OLD X-MAS VACATION TRICK
Arron Russo, you where right---RIP
What do you mean turns America into China? In Hong-Kong Gold is remonetized already, there is no gov debt (everyone received a check because there was too much money). Tax rates are low, banks are not under a fiat system, no central bank, no lender of last resort, low corporate tax dividends are not taxable. It just turns the US more late XXth century American. China is going the other way around, that is more and more freedom gradually. Hopefully they will keep a republic and not a dem(AG)ocracy. Sheeple are the problem, they shoot in their foot with their votes and bring the system down by the same token.
It felt like a low volume melt-up? Well, fortunately we don't have to have recourse to our Female Logic modules and worry about what it felt like. It was not a low volume day. This is what's generally known as a fact; rather than a feeling.
DXY must killed.
Kill the dollar.....save the banksters....
Carthage must be destroyed!
can't wait for the reality train to come and smoke these idiots.
46 million on Food stamps.. but everything's good.
lol.. sure.
Sure, all they got to do is kill the dollar....and america is repaired. Its all good.
46000000/308745538 = peanuts. Wake me when it's over 30% maybe over 20%. It's the greatest depression ever and I wanna see big numbers!
The real question is ... how much longer can people SURVIVE on food stamps? Try feeding the family on that program.
that is just SNAP.....you add in other 'welfare' programs such as social security (elderly and 'disabled') and you will see that number approaching your 20%.....
Ahhh....it's a 'decoupling'. To think that I thought it was blatant fraud and the Federal Reserve jacking the shit out of equities just prior to the holidays.
I'm so silly.
You certainly are.
Ohhh Lucy, you have some 'splaining to do....Why did you spend Little Ricky's college fund on S&P futures?! Don't tell me you were listening to Bob Pisani again you Crazy Red Head!
Same bullshit, different day.
The serfs will sulk home from their jobs - those who still have them, such as myself for seven more days - and receive their financial news from the same media sources from which they will learn more on San Francisco's "Monday Night Football" win last night, and the latest developments on the missing-white-girl-du-jour.
They will see that the Dow was up 330 points, and giddiness will reign supreme.
I've seen this movie a million times, and I still hate it. At least Adam Sandler isn't in it.
'Daily missing white girl' LOL
Thank moron sheep who watch TV for empowering our overlords. If the public pulled the plug on all media - we might have a chance. Plenty of dub fkkks posting here love their TV. idiots.
That would send me over the edge as well.
Hope Rally number 147 Complete. How many hope rallies have we had in the past 24 months?
Mr. Owl, how many hope rallies does it take to get to the center of a hopium pop?
The world may never know...
Stock market liked housing starts (they shouldn't - down 11.25%) and believed Draghi that Euro will be saved (they shouldn't).
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com
No retail investor is left, I believe tomorrow will verify that
We are all retail investors now.
so the institutionals can quietly ramp it up more tomorrow?
Historically, the yield curve spread, or the difference between short-term and long-term interest rates, has had some predictive power for the performance of the U.S. economy and banking industry. In the past, a narrowing, or flattening, of the spread has tended to foretell both slower economic growth and increased pressure on bank earnings.
Furthermore, the yield curve generally has inverted—a condition where short-term rates exceed long-term rates—up to two years ahead of a recession. Based on this historical context, the flattening in the yield curve since mid-2004 has been on the minds of many economists and banking analysts.
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/fyi/2006/022206fyi.html
Gold leads all markets, because all Central Banks use gold as collateral for their loans/issuance. Gold will pair with the stronger of the EUR or USD, whichever is politiaclly in favor. Oil/silver trade with gold on a long term chart, and against fiat. USD has an inverse relatioship with equity.
Corporations want to rule the world, and they are close to achieving their goal. The only thing left is to continue to shred fiat paper like confetti on the New Year. It continues......
Tyler,
Thats its the ...French Sovereign downgrade BLACKSWAN...EURUSD to 1.18-1.20 and EFSF fund wont work.
Game over.
More like the UK comming DOWNGRADE.
Downgrade them all
But....but...we can't lose our Triple A 'cos we got a central bank and we can print all the money we need. The UK can never default.
Just like the States.
A 300 Point rally AGAIN on a "rumor and HOPE" from Europe???
These idiots are NOT investors or wise men, that are parasitees and one that eats it's own.
At this level of decoupling, you would think someone would turn around and say ,"Guys, I don't think...."
Futures up 300 right now! Buy monkeys, buy!
ORCL down 20% from Nov peak.....hint peak
Lord Larry Ellison former CIA contractor who wrote Oracle for the agency. He is connected. Still he is more likable than Gates, the Google boys and probably less of lib that Jobs was cause he really likes p****y.
And he's got that whack crib in Woodside that reportedly does not have 1 nail in it. All Japanese craftsmanship.
The mansion gained infamy in 2008 when Ellison successfully sued to have the property’s tax assessment lowered by more than $3 million dollars, claiming the home (an uber-luxury home of 16th-century feudal Japanese architecture appealing to only a small market) “suffered from ‘significant functional obsolescence.’” He also argued that the “over improvements” and “excessive” landscaping are expensive to maintain and actually decrease the overall taxable value of the estate. His argument won, proving yet again the Ellison magic touch.
+1 LOL!
The house is pretty cool. I cannot believe he gets a tax break because he builds a 16th century shogun pimp crib. He really is connected.
Lord Larry Ellison's other trick was he would fly into San Jose airport at all hours in his Gulfstream V which would be a G550 or something now. Well San Jose has a lot of billionaires but only Larry can come screaming in at 3 am to land there. I guess he knew who to call. Pissed off a lot of people too.
http://www.mv-voice.com/news/show_story.php?id=146
Only for the big guys. For all others it's .gov only!
steve jobs was not liberal unless you define liberals as CEOs who outsource manufacturing outside of US into communist China where the conditions are so deplorable and unfair that workers commit suicide.
LOL! He is an icon for iGadget weirdos - many are libs. I stopped listening to Limbaugh because he hate Ron Paul, is an Apple total freak and an NFL freak.
Sounds like something Sean Penn might do. Sounds like what libs did to Calif for average working folk. Leave CA or off yourself.
Anyone see Maria Conchita Alonso or whatever her name is and Sean Penn at LAX airport. She had written an op-ed years ago how Sean loved Chavez, Amendidjad and maybe Castro.
He saw here and then realized who it was and starts yelling at her. She is calling the AH a communist. I would have loved to have been there.
iGadget is just some toy for middle to upper middle class.....lower classes get the knock out copy when those people move on to some other latest greatest. upper class folks don't need iGadget....they live the life in real life instead of watching movies of others living the dream.
New multiyear highs in Home Depot and Starbucks today. Is it really more $3 coffees and home renovations in our future? The American consumer has decoupled or is just in permanent denial? Only true financial collapse will stop the Western consumption orgy.
I was trying to find a decent deadbolt recently, went to home depot because(anti-competitive monopolies and people think america is a capitalist country still I lol constantly at that). All their deadbolts were the exact same design(4 different brands.. all exactly the same..), cast steel interior with a thin brass covering, mechanism just sitting there in the middle unsupported, you could just pry the brass back and crack the steel with a chisel and hammer with one blow, fucking ludicrous.
moral of the story, try to get decent door locks from old buildings before all the scrappers sell them to be melted; or, start manufacturing real locks again for fucks sake. I can't wait until america returns to making quality shit, if that day ever comes.
Truly a new all-time low for integrity of the markets. I guess it's just an in-yo-face job by the Fed now.
Today is easily the most blatant f'ing joke of intervention I have seen yet. And, I didn't think November 30th could be topped. I stand with egg on my face.
This is f'ing pathetic.
I’m a novice to this. Were the markets always this schizophrenic, or is this a recent phenomenon?
My personality A and B both say "Yes"
On a serious note, it's increasing entropically, like ice melting in a glass. The schizophrenia is the decoupling between publicly-strewn information and market response, aka fraud and manipulation. As things have unwound (at glacial speed beginning in 1913, but truly accelerating since the dot-com crash and virtually parabolic since 2008), the dominance of the manipulated moves has become palpable. So it's always been there, it's just picked up speed dramatically as the end game approaches.
No, the markets were not always this schizophrenic. What you are witnessing, and about to witness in the next 12 months, will be regarded by future historians as "epic", and you have a front row seat.
This is all Hope & Change set up in 2007 and 2008. The corruption today is beyond belief. There are no laws for people like Corzine and Dem cronies.
The year's expected return is seen in a day/week and lost the next.
If you look at a chart (from an engineering perspective) it appears to be quite unstable.
remember every company has an announced buy programn some days they just do it together
i agree, no clue what could justify it
"something" has just been buying everything that can keep indices above a target level
ZIRP till 2013 and beyond guarantees a currency crisis. History be damned as long as Uncle Ben has the US military behind his back. Good luck with that!
When US military gets sick of uncle ben's rice, they will with support from foreign powers, take over civilian government by force.
Well they should have had a coup 2 1/2 years ago so we did not have to go through the s**t we have had.
I wonder if the US military will like the ChiCom plastic rice they tried to dump on the Vietnamese. China will probably give Uncle Ben a cheap deal.
You never saw racism until you saw Asians "hatin on" each other. 5,000 years of killing each other.
Relax guys. It's only the worst financial crisis in history. I am reminded of the last days in Hitler's bunkers where imaginary armies were moved around to defend the city while Berliners threw wild partiers to ignore reality.
Bernanke's Bunker....has a ring to it.
Do we have reality decoupling chart?
So, ya say you want big government, well this is how it gets funded. Someone has to pay the taxes and they've figured out the perfect collection method, Mr FED computer has all the Ace's and he's taking all the market participants' chips. Genius! But, strangly, even if he should take all the chips in the world, it's still not enough, never will be!
im still waiting to get my phone call from Ben so i can get in befor these big bumps. Could it be he lost my number?
Oracle profits - much ado about nothing. The company will exist for many more years to come. Stay in your strip.
NFLX up 6.33% today. Wowza! Their earnings must have blown everyone away...
ORCL is the new norm. Earnings way below expectations. That will be the new normal going forward.
Whoever is predicting the earnings before the results come out is just strung out on Hopium.
Demand across the entire landscape in anything is DOWN DOWN DOWN.
No fucking money magic gimmick in Europe or in the US is going to change that. People are NOT spending unless it's at a 95% DISCOUNT.
Got a call yesterday from the car dealership offering an insane deal to trade in and upgrade. I said no.
"If it would be an incredible deal would you at least think about it." No.
I felt like telling the phone room caller - "You voted for Hope & Change" "How is that working out?" They obviously voted for the muslim.
The dealerships are stuffed with new vehicles. They offer advance cash, 3 months now payments, low low payments (0 interest) and you get to drive a new car. What does that tell you about the future of the industry and the prospect of car sales? They're fucked if they don't move more inventory and quick.
You think the phone room caller actually voted?
Freddie probably thinks muslims don't need cars... He sees them on flying carpets...
The people who did not vote islamic in 2008 have gone Galt and are not spending money. The rest have no money to spend. The dealerships do not take foodstamp cards - yet.
I have never been cold called by a dealership trying to get me to trade in.
Their final attempt to entice me was no interest. I almost ax'ed them for 1% interest paid to me from their Dear Islamic leader and his pal The Bernank. maybe I could have bargain for some euros or 1 million in new Greek Drachmas.
I see his voters in new Chryslers and Chevys because they are so illiterate they do not realize how sh**ty the UAW Chrysler crap is. In addition, through Chrysler we are subsidizing Fiat 500 sales and Fiat to other morons who want to be like Ja-Lo driving through the Bronx on a blue screen.
who fucking cares if he's muslim?
what does it matter anyway?
I just don't see what the big deal is. We've had these rallies many times in the last few months (10/27?). Looking at the volumes on the indexes it's no wonder none of it makes sense. Who was trading? Robots?
Also, the EUR/USD was oversold and due for some consolidation before it can make a real crack at $1.28. I definitely agree that things were wonky today but IMHO that's par for the territory. My stops were not hit and I haven't changed my opinion about the direction of things yet.
just bought a brand new dishwasher today for 50% off must be the big demand
How do you guys feel about going long RMB?
Along with gold, that seems like the trade of the upcoming decade imo. RMB+Gold > USD + Gold. Chinese buying our treasuries is a brilliant strategy to take down our economy's manufacturing base. 2 trillion to do it is a good deal. Next decade the Chinese enjoy the fruits of their labor. Thoughts?
Decade? Jesus. A lot can happen in 10 years let alone 12 months.
I'd go gold/silver and play the ultrashort financials/small caps/europe/japan and mark when you're going to sell/exchange. Today for example on this bullshit hot-air hopium rally is when you buy TZA/FAZ and wait (buy on -10% and sell on +10%, rinse repeat). I think cash will remain king (of the fiat for now...) personally. I wouldn't play around with other fiat other than the U.S. dollar at this point but that's just my perspective. I think we have to see Europe go under followed by Japan and possibly UK then it'll hit our shores and then it might be time to exchange those FRN's for RMB if China can get rid of it's U.S. paper fast enough to let the RMB rise in value while balancing exports.
I think China has it's own decline coming though which is why this play makes me nervous.
Gold. Silver. Guns. Ammo. Cash. Water. Food. Doom. Porn. Blah. Blah.
I agree China has its own decline coming, but the Chinese are not stupid (as many American economists make them out to be) for buying our treasuries. There must be a reason. Could it be:
1. Spend a decade buying U.S. treasuries to completely destroy the U.S. manufacturing base. Low currency/trade defecit has the added benefit of building Chinese infrastructure via their own cheap labor.
2. Once the U.S. is on the ropes, stop buying treasuries.
3. As U.S. goes into depression, allow RMB to appreciate and become the new reserve currency (likely backed by some gold since they've been hoarding).
4. Chinese complete their rise to super power.
To me this looks like (a) the U.S. borrowed a prosperous decade from the Chinese and (b) the Chinese were willing to lend it to us knowing the end game favors them. I'm not sure the Chinese will need the U.S. or Europe exports if their currency rises and their standard of living increases. Their own people will want those products AND be able to afford them. This is not a bad deal from the Chinese perspective: 2 trillion in bonds is not much for a complete transfer of wealth.
Just an idea.
Very good ideas honestly. I tend to agree with you but I have my own theory on China and our paper.
Just a theory... but I have a feeling that's what they're doing. I know I would.
China? Don't be suprised that some day you wake up and Hillary or Geithner signed over California< oregon or Alaska to China. Or that they have mining rights to all the insane amount of minerals (including oil & nat gas) on Federal lands that the Dems have locked up to keep us slaves to the Saudis.
China has some side deal. You may end up as one of their wage slaves in your own or really the oligarch's country. It is not your country. Thank the islamic.
I agree, this will be the last good earnings season, and only because of seasonal factors.
Next quarter will be horrible for stocks, which is why I foresee QE3 in March-April. QE3 is running out of firepower, though. Not sure how long that will keep having any effect in stocks. Probably another year, then people will finally buy into why they should own gold. Disclaimer: not a gold bug at all...just saying where I see this going.
ORCL miss? That should be good for another 350 points tomorrow! Haha, welcome to the circus.
IBM, SAP....all down big AH.
The monkies on CNBC had a real hard on for tech and tech spending today. Bend me over Bartiromo kept spouting, "look at all this money coming into the market today, big money coming in." Over and over.
What a joke. I can't hold stocks longer than a few minutes. Can't beat em', join them.
do a search on how often that phrase is being used by pumpers on yahoo or other message boards
next time, Bartiromo will say "I bought at $xyz and buying more!"
when the pump is getting this hot, the dump is imminent
let me know how "join 'em" is making you money..
Ummm, why don't the Up/Down arrows work for your profile? Was gonna vote you up one.
Tech bubble is reinflating. Hopefully it doesn't inflate too much before it pops again.
Shorts were well-encouraged to cover. Some could, in light of history, fear a January effect. Seasonal window dressers will voguishly attempt to assert themselves, if unembattled. Proffering seasonally sanctified ($antafied) mannequins for display.
Most "investors" have sold down to their sleeping level and want to get sleighing. This does not mean, i.e. portend, that anything has changed.
welcome to zH!
We are in a situation where the market is just an instrument to finance banks' profits. Once Central bank were feeding banks via 2 - 10 steepener, today they realized it is much better to finance the bank manipulating stock market and let them make huge trading revenue selling volatility in order to re capitalize their balance sheet.
If the bank should rebuild their balance sheet via positive carry on the yield curve too much money would go in the real economy and create inflation.
We are in a situation where the market is just an instrument to finance banks' profits. Once Central bank were feeding banks via 2 - 10 steepener, today they realized it is much better to finance the bank manipulating stock market and let them make huge trading revenue selling volatility in order to re capitalize their balance sheet.
If the bank should rebuild their balance sheet via positive carry on the yield curve too much money would go in the real economy and create inflation.
Yep, as long as that money remains outside of the real economy, no inflation is created. The moment it hits the real consumer market, we are fucked. And I think this will happen if/when a major bank goes belly up and has to liquidate (doesn't matter which one).
any day now, right...?
The only reason we haven't seen one is the Fed, but the Federal Reserve cannot override a failed business model in the long run. Eventually, a toothpick will drop out of its assigned place. When that happens, somebody big is going to fail. Thus we begin a tragic sequence of events whereby all that bailout money meant to recapitalize the banks will be rapidly pooped out into the real world. It will happen sooner or later. I only hope it's later so that I have even more time to prepare. Because when it does happen, the misery will go beyond simply losing money in the stock market. We will experience a period (hopefully brief) of global political discord, even in the US. I think it's going to be ugly.
Navy, please explain how a bank collapse leaks money into the non bank economy. Interesting though which i am not sure i understand.
Does anyone have a long term DXY vs DJIA/S&P chart?
Can't find one that's any good
My thanks in advance
Notional GDP targeting
It won't be long before another country will be accused to selling oil for euro's. Where are the WMD's? Nevermind, just send in NATO.
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seems like a market that is set up for a major drop..not ready to short yet my tech's are still bullish..see TNA.
waiting for it just waiting then short the whole thing..y end window dressing + Fed PPT + EU stick save is too much to go against this week.
2012 1st week looking to move then.