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US Decoupling Over: JPM Cuts Q3 GDP From 2.3% To 1.6%
Earlier today, following the collapse in wholesale inventories, we noted the "the second leg of the stool of main GDP drivers appears to be
splintering as Wholesale Inventories dropped MoM for the first time
since Dec09 (-0.1% vs +0.5% expectations). We patiently await LaVorgna's
GDP downgrade." As it turns out, JPM's Daniel Silver is the first to pull the plug on the blind hope that US GDP is rising despite the rest of the world imploding, and in the process euthanising the latest iteration of the decoupling thesis which always appears to give the bulls some hope that things in the US just may be fine this time around. They never are.
From JPM:
Data released today on September wholesale inventories were significantly weaker than the BEA had assumed in its advance release of 3Q GDP growth and we are lowering our tracking estimate of 3Q growth by 0.7%-pts to 1.6%saar (the BEA had initially reported 2.5% growth). Wholesale inventories declined 0.1% in September to $462bn, which was the first monthly decline reported since 2009. Nondurable inventories have looked especially weak lately, falling 0.9% in September and 7.3%saar over the past three months.
The wholesale inventories data have mixed implications for 4Q growth. The contribution to growth from inventories in 4Q could be stronger than anticipated if the change in inventories reported for 3Q is revised down. However, imports could be more of a drag on 4Q growth if petroleum inventories are restocked from foreign sources; nominal wholesale petroleum inventories fell more than 25%saar over the three months through September (real inventories also appear to have declined significantly over this time). Tomorrow’s report on September foreign trade will help shed light on our growth estimates.
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We can still fix that, just lay off more people!
Finally something about the Wizard of OZ.
http://journey-to-alpha.blogspot.com/2011/11/forex-update-all-roads-lead-to-rome.html
Clearnet prompt with their 12 announcement:
LCH. CLearnet says no plans to raise Bond margins for any other market
- no plans to raise margins for Spain
- Italy margins were raised on volatility and lower liquidity
Decoupling, and simultaneous golbal inter-dependence, are lies spun by the satanists.
SATANIST, Definition:
mafia, bankster, military-industrial/corporate, oligarch, excutive elite scum and all who buy into and serve and uplift them and their unholy golden calf, pyramid schemes and pyramid structures and pyramid social engineering, upward mobility and materialism
Boycott all centralized, conglomerate, federated, over-sized institutions, businesses and agencies. Now. Today and Forever.
Or know that you are one with them. You cannot extricate yourself partly. it's all or nothing.
Oh but of course this has no negative effect on the markets at all...'GDP? Thats SO last century, meaningless...now its all about Italy and France maybe, US news is irrelevant'...yea we'll see.
Too true! Here we have a massive rally based on nothing but "Europe finally gets it". Now that reality is hitting European sovereign debt like a freight train, we just quietly ignore that and revert to the "Santa Claus rally" thesis.
Just keep in mind that the rallys that stuck so far were all driven by massive increases in liquidity for wall street (QE1 and QE2)....nothing other than hope is supporting this latest market move. Unless the ECB agrees to a massive printing, this is not going to hold for long.
Bullish, we can print more without worrying the economy is overheating......
WTI seems to be pricing in a war. That should be bullish for US GDP
The thing is, in THIS coming war, no one will remember what a GDP is...you dont know much of anything in a nuclear fallout shelter.
Given a choice of living in a fallout shelter or vaporizing, I'll take B.
If it comes to nukes, I'm sitting on my roof with beer and sunglasses. No fucking way would I want to go through a nuclear winter.
interesting question. A or B? dunno. big country. not gonna happen.
There's always Jack and his magic beans
Or Cheech and his magic dust.
Some should whisper this to WTI. From $94.60 to $97.77 IN ONE HOUR. The criminal syndicate known as Wall Street....destroying quality of life every single day.
Sell WTI.
Export bubble goes Pop. Nothing new.
Italy exposure
GS $2.3bln
MS $1.79B
C $14.5B
BAC$6.54B
JPM $11.3B
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-09/goldman-s-gross-funded-credit-e...
Looks like TBTF will be putting in an order to Ben for a $36B tranch of clownbux.
or just enough for GS and JPM; the rest can go to hell as far as Fed cares.
More government handouts will juice that number right up. How about 400 weeks of unemployment. Maybe another 45 million on food stamps. Solution is simple.
Maybe someone should tell BoA.
next in the playbook is to distract the sheeple on the idiot box with a war so the banksters have some time to re fix the books. tomahawk cruise missles are getting old anyway. Can't waste them
WTI is insignificant. Brent is everything, when you import 11 mbpd.
North of $100 all year long. Gasoline will be up 35% from 1 Jan by Dec 31.
Amid declining demand. What does this say to you about supply?
Welcome, once again, to the world whose GDP is determined by the black liquid.
Humans sure haven't learned much have they? Bring back the dinosaurs.
Major decoupling for me is the Euro getting its ass kicked (thus strengthening the dollar) yet PMs are currently holding their own. Couple weeks of that and it could get interesting.
Ask yourself what you would do if you were an Itailian of Greek with money in the bank. There will be at least some marginal move from Euros into gold. The $us will also benefit even though it is total crap.
Exactly my point, usually when the dollar "strengthens" the algos take over and commodities get slammed. Not so much currently - maybe the sheeple are waking up... a little.
QE3 seems to be getting closer and closer. Stick with Precious Metals.
Least the Morgue is being more honest then BAC...
Gotta love this headline:
Italy at breaking point, Merkel calls for "new Europe"I think she's calling for new underwear right now.
She wore her brown dress today.
They can call it The Greater Germanic Co-Prosperity Zone.
Mortgage the graves BITCHEZZZZZZZZ!!!!!!!!!!!!1
The US economy is growing only in mind of the media talking heads. Declining GDP/employment has caused food stamp receiptents to grow 8.4% during the past year, 1.2% last month to 46 million, 15% of the USA population. NJ, Maryland, Delware increase was 17%, CA 11% over the past year. There can't be real economic growth while the number on food stamps increases.
Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund, told a financial forum in Beijing that Europe's debt crisis risked plunging the global economy into a Japan-style "lost decade".
"Our sense is that if we do not act boldly and if we do not act together, the economy around the world runs the risk of downward spiral of uncertainty, financial instability and potential collapse of global demand ... we could run the risk of what some commentators are already calling the lost decade."
Sooooo, the banks flooded the world with debt which created a mirage of a consumer driven economy. Consumer for what? Well the biggest impact I can see was that global corporations moved production to the 3rd world where there was a willing and desperate workforce with no compunction about polluting the world and living with virtual slavery. When the debt high came to an end the banks told their governments to take on the role of borrower of last resort. Now here we are being told by the bankers to do whatever it takes to save this wonderful system they created. Right....for what reason, and where are we going with all this?????
So IMF is pressuring China and Germany, which have both already mortgaged their wealth, to double-down.
A 30% revision downwards.
F**KING HOLY MOTHER OF GOD !!
I predict final revision will be 0.5%
You alarmist. Just say down 0.7%, it sounds better.
+^ tyler's intro^+
L0L!!! we're IN the freaking 4th quarter, for pete's sake!
the morgue and all the other fuking banksters have been bullshitting "investors" about the econom?
really?
I can't help myself.I feel the urge comming on.....
Can,t..hold...on....any.....longer......
......................Fuck You's JP Morgan Chase&Co.
DOW chart reveals very overextended price action and another Wile E Coyote scenario...
http://stockmarket618.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/2011-11-09_dow_4_zb.png
I never understood the 'de-coupling' thesis, especially when it was coming from the same fraudsters that brought us the whole 'one world economy is good for you' bullshit, ah excuse me - thesis.
Let's see - when things are booming, the US-Euro-China interdependent economies are good for us.
And when stuff starts going way south in Europe (for example, not that such a thing would ever really happen), we really aren't interdependent at ALL, no siree, bob.
"De-coupling" is so far up the bullshit meter as to be off the screen...