The US Drought In Context: Spot The Global Warming

Tyler Durden's picture




 

"The drought that has settled over more than half of the continental United States this summer is the most widespread in more than half a century," and as the New York Times points out "is likely to grow worse." However, a glance at the last 112 years' June 'drought' conditions does not suggest this is a systemic trend (a la global warming) - with notably drier/hotter periods in the past - but we do note some interesting analogs as drought conditions as epic as the current one evolve and fade: from 1936-1938 the Dow fell almost 50%; from 1955-1957 the Dow fell over 18% (11% p.a.); and 1987 of course saw a 40% plunge. "It’s got the potential to be the worst drought we’ve ever had in Arkansas," said Butch Calhoun, the state’s secretary of agriculture. "It’s going to be very detrimental to our economy."

Nearly 1,300 counties across 29 states have been declared federal disaster areas. Areas under moderate to extreme drought in June of each year are shown in orange below

 

Source: NYTimes

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Mon, 07/23/2012 - 11:09 | 2642612 BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

Dirt farm, bitches!

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 11:19 | 2642667 SheepRevolution
SheepRevolution's picture

Just when you thought Franklin D. Roosevelt couldn't have screwed it up even more back then. 1934 FTW!

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 11:24 | 2642694 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I'm pleased to report that the pledge to make America carbon free by 2013 (the carbon free revolution) is making very good progress. Both President Barack H. Obama and William Milton Romney have expressed their intentions to manage the climate for optimal temperature for all ecosystems and maximum prosperity. Every day, more and more studies are coming out that demonstrate the statistical irrelevance of factors other than CO2 on the climate, much to the frustration of anti-science libertarians. It has also been demonstrated that renewable energies like wind farms and biofuels ARE in fact economically viable, and that the government is perfectly capable of financing these technologies, even if the pro-oil free market won’t.  

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 11:27 | 2642715 NewThor
NewThor's picture

You got any brilliant ideas to cool the Sun off, Genius.

Robot Trader > You

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 11:38 | 2642756 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Did you not read my post!? Studies show that varying CO2 emissions has a statistical effect on the climate that offsets the combined effect of all other factors. If that were not the case, then promoting policies to reduce CO2 emissions would be irresponsible, as the effects of the policies would simply be eliminated by random fluctuations in the non-anthropogenic factors. Progressives always DO THEIR RESEARCH, and only advocate policies when they have studied the effects until there is no chance of failure.

Currently, top scientists are busy developing an objective measure of the optimality of the climate. Once they have this measure, it is simply a matter of varying CO2 emissions until the optimal climate is achieved for all ecosystems across the planet. 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 11:45 | 2642783 XitSam
XitSam's picture

ha ha, now that was funny.  I still gave you a down arrow though.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 12:29 | 2642791 Precious
Precious's picture

Dude.  The earth can take care of itself perfectly well for another billion years.  Humans on the other hand, have very little future no matter what happens.  So just shut the fuck up.  You're insignificant.  Deal with it.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 11:50 | 2642817 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

It won't be long until thermostats are installed on every light pole in the nation and we can each set our desired temperature and weather to our own liking!

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 12:29 | 2642945 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Proles will get a smartgrid to reduce our energy consumption, so ManBearPig's Beach homes can always remain at the optimal temperature.

If only we were smart enough to recapture methane from the ManBearPig shit coming out of his mouth.

 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 11:55 | 2642828 Rock the Casbah
Rock the Casbah's picture

"statistical effect"? What's the R-squared?

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 12:14 | 2642896 TheBillMan
TheBillMan's picture

Oh, you thought there was a real statistical model using real world data.  Sorry, I should have clarified.  There's no statistical model and no data.  Just an excel spreadsheet with a bunch of "assumptions" (i.e lies).  I think the same guys who model global warming are also the ones who modeled the risk on CDO's, CDO^2, CDO^3...CDO^n.  Long live the spreadsheet masters.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 11:58 | 2642833 falak pema
falak pema's picture

wonderful, we will do it by orchestrating our global farts!

CO2 control finetuned to a T. Even the cows will be tuned in thanks to Google Big data expert system. 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 12:00 | 2642836 ATM
ATM's picture

Yup 394 parts per million is going to cause a catostrophic collapse of the climate and runaway greenhouse warming when 350 parts per million wouldn't.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 12:07 | 2642865 noses
noses's picture

Just stop farting and keep your mouth shut and we all will be safe.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 12:13 | 2642888 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Studies by whom? The whole climate science department at the University of East Anglia is discredited. So is Michael Man. So is the University of Pennsylvania. So is the UN's climate group which is composed of the same discredited scientists. James Lovelock, inventor of global warming and the Gaia hypothesis, recently admitted that he was wrong and none of the predictions he made have come true. Al Gore of course is a politician not a scientist and nobody believes a thing he says anymore.

So which "top scientist" are you referring to?

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 12:16 | 2642909 TheBillMan
TheBillMan's picture

MillionDollarBonus_ is the master of sarcasm.  You gotta take him with a big grain of salt.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 12:31 | 2642950 potlatch
potlatch's picture

if your theories involve a moonbase, I'm in.  Otherwise, too crackpot.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 13:36 | 2643178 Bull Bear Otter
Bull Bear Otter's picture

"Progressives always DO THEIR RESEARCH"...What a tool.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 13:44 | 2643200 JimBowie1958
JimBowie1958's picture

Currently, top scientists are busy developing an objective measure of the optimality of the climate. Once they have this measure, it is simply a matter of varying CO2 emissions until the optimal climate is achieved for all ecosystems across the planet. 

Lol, MDB, that was a classic. You are a genius at farcical comedy.

And thank you for the best laugh I have had in several weeks.

I look forward to your posts every day.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 13:47 | 2643210 UGrev
UGrev's picture

Awesome.. go dig one small hole and one big hole. Put a plant in the small hole... you jump in the other and stfu with your bullshit science that was admitted to being manipulated by the very scientists who fear mongered global warming. 

Progressives don't do their research. They lie, cheat, decieve .. fuck, they'll do anything such that what ever they say is right. If they could change the laws of mathematics to suit their end, they would.

Progressives.. everyone one them ARE ALL PSYCHOLOGICALLY FUCKED IN THE HEAD. You have a global, economic catastrophe occurring and you still think everything is fine and there should be even more printing. Your thought processes are beyond rational. You border on retard. 

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 15:38 | 2659304 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

There was no such admission.

One tree-ring study does not make science nor a field of science. No admission of fraud, mistakes or wrong-doing exists whatsoever about climate change and global warming but for ONE tree-ring study. Just one.

Your lies are defeated.

The biggest global warming hoax is that there is no global warming.

It's hear, it's real, it's killing your food-crops as we speak and did last year too. You're going to kill yourself with stupidity.

The global environmental EXTINCTION-LEVEL EVENT is the REAL ECONOMIC CRISIS. Inflation alone is not driving up prices for food and water treatment, CLEAN WATER IS IN A SHORTAGE GLOBALLY AND SO IS FOOD.

 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 15:18 | 2643481 Sparkey
Sparkey's picture

The dream of omnipotent man has been around for a long time, unfortunately man's power only exists in his own mind, someone penned the following in response to something else where the writer was looking for a 60% reduction in Co2 in 20 years, or whatever!

"# John Russell 2010-04-22 02:32

Dear Gentle reader, if it is now man's responsibility to regulate the climate that is simply another indication of how close we are to the end, our instincts guide us to ever greater exploitation while our minds are flexible about our personal responsibility for the destruction our, Collective, behavior causes.

Case in point; there is an article on this page about the damage Encana, among others is causing to the ground water by their practice of fracking, yet millions of "good" people own shares in Encana and while they might express dismay about the harm which is being caused to anonymous strangers, very few will sell their shares while the chance of a payoff seems real, It is something in the way our minds are constructed-- Many "good" people bought shares in slave ships, because the suffering of the others "slaves" didn't seem real and anyway, "everybody was doing it and everybody wants to be rich"- this is the bottom line! Everybody wants "More" They don't know why they want more but instinct not reason, controls all life on Earth, including people. Mankind is now where instinct has brought us!

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 21:40 | 2644346 Nassim
Nassim's picture

Here is research that shows that Northern Europe has been gradually cooling for 2000 years. It was warmer in Roman Times and for parts of the Middle Ages. The research is based on tree-rings (i.e. it is accurate and repeatable).

Of course, this sort of research - by showing "undesirable" outcomes - does not make it to most newspapers.

You may remember that 3 years ago everyone was saying that Australia's drought was "proof" of global warming. The local politicos went on a binge building a giant useless desal plant (still unfinished, over-budget and indebted), a huge water pipeline and so on. Well, that is old news as the water reservoirs are almost completely full - fullest for 15 years.

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/water-water-everywhere-as-catchment-le...

The people plugging CO2 and so on are all working for the nuclear industry - whether they know it or not.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 15:35 | 2659300 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

repair, transport and construction for the nuclear industry requires massive CO2 output as well so there's no savings there.

Thorium nuclear would be a savings as there's less waste to transport, the waste is less dangerous and lasts a shorter time, the mining of thorium is cheaper as it is abundant and with rare-earth elements we need for other things, but there is no Thorium market yet.

It will come. the world can't afford NOT to use it.

Your lies, otherwise, are dismissed. The world has not one region anywhere, including Northern Europe, that's been cooling for the last 2000 years.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 15:32 | 2659294 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Absolutely NO ONE is trying to determine optical climate as this means knowing optimal evolutionary paths for every species and optimal transformation for every biome. No scientists are doing this and no computation can handle this as this exceeds the computing power of all computers combined ever to exist.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 15:31 | 2659293 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

The sun's not overly hot and comparison with the moon and other planets confirms excess solar activity is not at play.

Most of the sun's energy hitting us is not even photons during CME's, it's electrons and protons carrying NO heat to us as they are mostly KINETIC energy moving quickly and CHARGED particles never reaching our atmosphere as they are deflected by the magnetic field of our spinning iron core.

MeelionDollerBogus > (NewThor+MDB+RobotTrader)^2

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 11:34 | 2642738 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

 "anti science libertarians"... :-)

Nobody does it better than MDB...

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 11:35 | 2642747 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Really? I think it is getting stale. It was pretty good for a while, but it is too obvious now.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 13:49 | 2643217 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Not one of MDB's best trolls, but hey they can't all be home runs.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 16:50 | 2643702 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

Judging by the number of responses he gets, many don't see it as obvious.  I find the responses at least as amusing as anything MDB says these days.

It could be said that MDB is no Harry Wanqer or Johnny Bravo but he certainly finishes the day will lots of fish in the cooler.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 11:34 | 2642741 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Carbon Free = no plant life = no oxygen = death to everything.

You already jumped the shark long ago, folks do not believe that you believe this stuff. There is another troll in town who argues with a vengance and makes me believe he believes his bullshit---Max F. Now there is a troll with an attitude.

You are done MDB. Roll up a new character.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 11:49 | 2642814 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Although I agree with your recommendation, I'd mention that he still pulling in a lot of hits, so clearly he's still an effective troll.  Even if folks are only replying to call him names, he's earning his pay.  So to speak.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 13:48 | 2643215 UGrev
UGrev's picture

naww.. it's called the "Re-Troll".. you use a troll to call out other trolls.. and then you mark them. 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 12:00 | 2642840 fuu
fuu's picture

http://cryptome.org/2012/07/gent-forum-spies.htm

"Technique #3 - 'TOPIC DILUTION'

Topic dilution is not only effective in forum sliding it is also very useful in keeping the forum readers on unrelated and non-productive issues. This is a critical and useful technique to cause a 'RESOURCE BURN.' By implementing continual and non-related postings that distract and disrupt (trolling ) the forum readers they are more effectively stopped from anything of any real productivity. If the intensity of gradual dilution is intense enough, the readers will effectively stop researching and simply slip into a 'gossip mode.' In this state they can be more easily misdirected away from facts towards uninformed conjecture and opinion."

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 13:26 | 2643142 tony wilson
tony wilson's picture

had a burn last night from a hot curry ffffew that was something

not sure what you are getting at but if it was about the game last night or kim vage gashian i am all ears.

and dick

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 11:35 | 2642746 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Neither one of the two can't manage to tell the truth, I'd love to see them try to manage the climate.Although when the messiah was campaigning they did say he could lower the levels of the oceans.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 12:14 | 2642894 Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

HIlarious post as always mdb, but I think I have a clarification which will make it even funnier.

 

Romney's first name is actually WILLARD.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:44 | 2643830 Walt D.
Walt D.'s picture

WILLARD - named after Bill Clinton's dick?

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 12:36 | 2642973 EmileLargo
EmileLargo's picture

William Milton Romney?? LOL!!

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 20:43 | 2644238 Tapeworm
Tapeworm's picture

wtf?

We are suffering with two douchebags that don't even go by their own names.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 12:44 | 2643008 alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture

Haha, that's just hilarious.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 13:05 | 2643095 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Hey MDB.when you say " intentions to manage the climate for optimal temperatures" you "mean cloud whitening" and aluminum and barium toxic soup...? Right...?

For your info they are doing it now.

But the biggy is "Own the Weather by 2025" Thats the U.S.A Military plan...

Google it on up.

But seeing as you are Gov...I am sure you already know....

FuckTard.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 12:36 | 2645877 Precious
Precious's picture

eat shit and die

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 15:21 | 2659275 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

what, no comment on Libertarians causing global warming directly as a higher source of CO2 than OWS protesters?

Sheesh, you're slipping bad.

It's far too late to regulate the temperature. It's time to set up all new irrigation and water collection systems from the higher humidity - copying what desert plants do to survive. Without such techniques crops will die in most of the global areas of the Northern Hemisphere we depend on as a species.

Methane, CO2 and urban heat generation combined are killing everything. It's far, far too late. Repair would take more than 100 years from now and in 20 mass starvation will be a daily reality.

Just the idiotic manner in which all streets are paved in black, all roofs are dark brown to black and all air conditioners rely on dumping heat TO THE AIR instead of to sewage lines already installed ... is INSANE.

Every fridge, freezer and air-conditioner should be dumping excess heat to a hot-water heater or to the toilet-bowl and out-flow pipes of the house. EVERY roof should be WHITE. Every dark street should have hot-water exchange pipes to bring heat and energy savings to the buildings near them.

This is far, far more efficient than solar-panels.

EVERY property large enough to have COMPOSTING TOILETS should do so. Soon we'll see clean water at such a shortage, at such a high cost, that there will be DEATH IN THE STREETS if we don't do it.

You can suffer without food more than a week but YOU CAN NOT SURVIVE A WEEK WITHOUT WATER.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 11:26 | 2642708 NewThor
NewThor's picture

The term to use is SOLAR WARMING.

Check the Nasa SOHO cameras. Do a complete .mov file of the Sun activity from

2000 to 2012. You will actually see the Sun getting larger. 

Is it part of the Solar Maximum, the Sun aging or a Large Celestial Body coming close to our Solar System? Who knows.

...but I know for sure it is not 'Global Warming', and I say this as a tree hugger who takes care of a bunch of dogs and horses.

Global Warming is a fuggin' scam.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 11:35 | 2642743 Hmm...
Hmm...'s picture

In my opinion there are two different issues that people confuse.

1. Global warming (or "climate change").  Not to be confused with "weather".

and

2. The cause of global warming.

There seems to be ample evidence that there is, indeed, global warming. 
What seems to be more in contention is the cause of global warming.  Is it man made, is it due to Sun Spots, etc, is it due to some other cyclic global event.

I will leave the latter question (cause) up for debate.  But the stuff I've seen on global warming is worrisome.

The issue of this post is pertinent regardless if this is global warming or not.  The grainbelt of America is under extreme pressure due to drought.  This is not a good thing anytime, especially not during a prolonged Global Great Recession. 

People will starve due to this globally, and this has the potential to cause major geopolitical strife.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 11:42 | 2642768 Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

The polar ice caps have thawed and frozen countless times over the ages. We might be making the planet warmer than it would otherwise be, but it's not outside the usual cycles which have way more to do with solar activity. Back in 2008 we had some of the coldest temperatures measured in recorded history in the US. Global warming is a false idea that's only purpose is to con people into supporting a global carbon tax and giving up their national sovereignty to globalist leeches. Anything being touted by a loon who thinks he invented the Internet should be junked from the onset.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 15:26 | 2659283 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

no, the polar ice caps have NOT melted down this fast ever, or reformed much later, they have only melted a much smaller amount (50%) and much slower in the past. Ever.

At this point it will take another ice age just to build them back to what they were 100 years ago - which is not enough - but it may be enough to kill off the invasive viral species converting all needed materials for life into excess heat and excess non-biologically useful poison (concentrated plutonium, uranium, red mud lakes, paints and industrial solvents, etc.).

Back in 2008 were some of the HOTTEST records ever recorded IN HISTORY ever, with all years 2000 to 2012 being the hottest ever known on Earth since humans existed.

Your lies don't cut it. You may as well be MDB.

17 very ignorant wrong-headed people gave you green-arrows and all of them are morons.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 12:29 | 2642943 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

I think it may still be too close to call whether there is global warming. Look at the maps in this article. We have somewhat reliable data for only a bit over a century, and the most reliable data probably for 50 years, and the temperature rise measured is on the order of 1 Deg. C if even that.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 13:03 | 2643094 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

In the 70s and 80s it was "Beware of the next Ice Age." Now it's "Global Warming is going to eat your children." We just don't have enough of an attention span to look at the real data over a reasonably long time period to realize that Solomon had it right way back in Ecclesiastes. For everything there is a season. The rain falls on the righteous in the wicked. Everything is meaningless (like trying to make the outdoor temperature a degree or two less). We're lucky where I am to have central heating and air (and a unit for both upstairs and down to go all hoity toity on people). So we'll survive. The garden keeps on growing. And Brittany Spears and Paris Hilton keep doing things to get your attention. Whoa! It's like 1 degree warmer now than an hour ago. At this rate it will be like a billion degrees by next year. What did Miley Cyrus wear? Seriously? What were we talking about?

Really- look at the long range data and make your bearish bets now.

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