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US Economic Data Reporting Now Officially A Farce: Every Economic Data Point Prints 4+ Std Devs Above Consensus

Tyler Durden's picture


It appears that central bank intervention was not the only thing in full force today: The US version of the Chinese Ministry of Truth in economic reporting has now officially joined the fray. Anyone wondering just how much of a joke the US high frequency economic data updates have become should look no further than these three charts showing Wall Street forecasts (consensus and distribution) and actual prints for the ADP Payroll, the Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales. Not one indicator has come below 4 standard deviations above the average forecast, and every single one has printed above the highest forecast. It is now safe to say without any doubt that US data is equal if not more equal in credibility terms with that of China.

Below are the charts showing sellside forecast distribution for ADP, Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales. Nuf said.

ADP: 4+ Std Devs above consensus

Chicago PMI: 4 Std Devs above consensus

and Pending Home Sales: 5 Std Devs above consensus

Charts: Bloomberg


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Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:16 | 1930052 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

I am really starting to get worried...smells like the lies that were coming out during Vietnam again...

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:22 | 1930097 TomJoad
TomJoad's picture



Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:24 | 1930118 SHEEPFUKKER

Standard deviations? Yup, the deviations sure are standard now.  Welcome to the new normal.  Anything to get the sheeple to Walmart at midnight and all will be fine. 

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:28 | 1930131 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture
“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”


-- Joseph Goebbels


Recovery summers 2009, 2010 & 2011 - maybe Recovery Summer 4.0 (2012) will feel even better!

In the meantime, enjoy the Santa Clause rally, ho, ho, hoes & bitchez.


Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:28 | 1930153 trav7777
trav7777's picture

the MSM continues to repeat, repeat, repeat.

I find it curious that so many of you can see through some of the lies, but refuse to question the rest of the message.  No, people say, they ONLY lie about this ONE thing or these FEW things.  The rest of the shit they say is true, right?

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:31 | 1930179 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Segregated accounts being just the latest. But hey I'm not here to burst your bubble. I'm sure Gerald Celente can fill you in on the reality, just make sure you're a subscriber....

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:33 | 1930192 YBNguy
YBNguy's picture

Your thinking to deep on this one, STOP IT NOW, and go back to the Kardashians and Football - everyrthing is A-OKAY

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:41 | 1930227 eureka
eureka's picture

I agree, They lie about everything. And it works. People just love to suspend their disbelief.

We can now conclude that there will never be a moment of truth, There will never be a "another" recession or a double dip. The Elite will not allow it - and their Fed Res bankster military corporate CIA Empire will ensure it.

There will be printing and easing and lieing to eternity.

This all just proves that it is ok to have half the population as underclass. Forever. In the US. Roll over India.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:10 | 1930442 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

When looking into the abyss, considering your own demise, yeah, the lie looks better.  It doesn't help anything, except the political end game, but there's always liquor!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:37 | 1930666 Random_Robert
Random_Robert's picture

Everyone seems to think that the solution is to somehow stop liars from lying- A fool's errand.

The only moral individual action is for people to look in the mirror and be honest with themselves.

The introspective question, “Is what I’m doing really generating the results I intended for myself and others?” is so basically easy, and yet today so many seem afraid of self scrutiny and personal honesty because their senses and their intuitions do not “line up” correctly with the way that everyone has always told them things are “supposed to be”.

The real world is nothing more than the one YOU experience. It has nothing to do with any of the diatribe, propaganda, or pure BS being fed to you by others.

I trust that this knowledge and understanding of reality will gradually seep into the culture. The Internet is a much more powerful instrument of truth than it is of propaganda.

Remember- once the lie is told, 90% of the liar’s effort has to go into obscuring the truth to maintain the lie. This amount of effort is economically (and probably spiritually) untenable.

In contrast: Once the truth is told, the truther can move on to whatever else they feel like doing next. There is no consequential effort to maintaining honesty.

My wizened Grandfather told me something when I was 10 years old that stuck with me forever:

“The truth represents the power of self. Lies represent the power of others. If you cling to their lies, then you empower them unjustly.”

For you Bible-types out there, this is the lesson of Jesus’ walk with Satan in the book of Luke.

For you more literary types, it is the lesson of Hamlet- The world we live in is developing a common social personality and consciousness; and it is unfortunately seriously schizophrenic (if not outright psychotic).

But on the other hand, the great thing about liars is that they all stick together, and when things get rough, they end up attacking each other first.

Things are certainly going to be interesting going forward as the Politicians (liars) and the bankers (liars) and the militant murderers all turn on each other… The best course of action will be to be a spectator on the benches rather than a player on the field. No sense getting sucked into the vortex as collateral damage, is there?

60 Minutes had a great piece on Jack Abramoff a while back- go look it up on Youtube if you missed it.

The cannibalistic feast of the hyenas is getting ready to kick into high gear methinks…

Meanwhile, in the real world, the sun always rises, and there is always opportunity to occupy one's time doing something productive.

The only true risk this planet faces depends on the liars deciding that the requirement of maintaining the lie should mean willfully exterminating the entire species with nukes. But, and I've mentioned this before:

There is no historical evidence  anywhere in the fossil or allegorical record of ANY species ever willfully extincting itself. This doesn't mean humanity can't or won't, but it does mean that we would be overcoming some pretty fantastic odds in order to be the first.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:30 | 1930166 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Here in the UK, we've continuously had to listen to speeches about "the recovery" since the markets went into a tailspin back in 2008. Here we are, knocking on the door to 2012, and they still discuss "the recovery".

And no doubt, as if by magic, if the economy hasn't tumbled by the end of 2015, they will still be discussing "the recovery".

It's one long-lasting recovery, this is.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:26 | 1930135 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Tyler is just a misanthrope.

This is how green shoots work, OK?  This is the NEW economy.  Get onboard with Robotool and MDB.

We just woke up yesterday and BOOM, there were all these trees out there.  They grew like bamboo except on growth hormone.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:33 | 1930185 CPL
CPL's picture

And they died a week later because it stripped the soil bare until it turned to sand and all the water evaporated.


Weird I can't up vote EndTheFed.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:28 | 1930150 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



If everything was so rosy, then the Fed would not intervene. 

Yet they are intervening, so everything is not rosy.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:33 | 1930188 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

The answer to all our questions:

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:03 | 1930384 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



The answer to all our questions:

Gold, bitchezzz?

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 13:01 | 1930903 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture


Wed, 11/30/2011 - 15:24 | 1931732 12ToothAssassin
12ToothAssassin's picture


Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:43 | 1930261 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I want to see routine +/- 500 point days, as we did in 2008/2009, again, and I love that headline to the right ---> that says US Pending Home Sales (Oct) M/M 10.4% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. -4.6%)

...that means September pending home sales were down -4.6% from August, but suddenly jumped to +10.4% in October, according to the Ministry or Truth & Hopium.


Let me just say from experience:  I've never seen so much bullshit in my life. Home sales ALWAYS spike higher the months of June, July & August, as people are trying to make the deadline of the new school year starting (hurriedly in August), and then sales of new and existing homes suck wind from October through the end of January, because not only has the new school year begun, but people do not have the time nor inclination to look at houses during the Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year holidays (too busy shopping, entertaining, year end work committments, etc).

Total and utter bullshit of the highest magnitude. Let's see if they get the downward revisions in the ballpark.

Or maybe The Bernank had Timmay go around and sign contracts en masse.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:15 | 1930479 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

There must be literally millions of jobless people buying houses.  This is a very positive indicator for the economy, isn't it?

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:34 | 1930629 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

Except the SPX is predicated on misery for the average person. So what we really need is a massive crash in equities to signal that the economy is OK. Full Retard.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:31 | 1930175 machineh
machineh's picture

'Welcome to the new normal.'

Technically, it's 'Welcome to the new non-normal.'

We are exceeding the goals of the Five Year Plan, comrades. 

Wheat production is up, and the people have bread. 

Kudos to the Bipartisan Party! /sarc

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:35 | 1930203 r101958
r101958's picture

There is one 4 standard deviation difference headline that I WILL believe when I read it; 'Ron Paul takes 4 standard deviation higher percentage of votes in Iowa primary than predicted by all Main Stream Media outlets'.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:03 | 1930387 el Gallinazo
el Gallinazo's picture

Garison Keillor reports today that the average IQ of Lake Wobegone 10th graders has jumped well above expectations to 154 as reported by the BLS.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:54 | 1930856 trav7777
trav7777's picture

no; the BLS reported that they were all above the average

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:26 | 1930557 Hungry For Knowledge
Hungry For Knowledge's picture

I'm not a math major, but I believe the focus on being X number of standard deviations off from GUESSES is not as bad as it may sound, for the reason that these economist guesses about the numbers are not naturally occuring phenomenons like, say, the natural distribution of rain drops falling in a certain area, or the number of baby iguanas born per mom iguana.  4 standard deviations off may be a once in a billion event in nature, but when the object being studied is simply an economist guess, I don't think being off 4 (or 10) SD is an unlikely as it would appear. THey are, after all, guesses we are measuring in the first place.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:35 | 1930210 midtowng
midtowng's picture

Today's bullish economic news explains the big market move yesterday.

The big banks and hedge funds were told ahead of time these bullish reports were coming out, and they've positioned themselves accordingly.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:43 | 1930262 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

As we learned yesterday, when Hank Paulson does it, it's not insider trading.

Insider trading is when outsiders do it.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:25 | 1930123 Clorox Cowboy
Clorox Cowboy's picture

Well, obviously we're "more equal" than the Chinese!  This is America, land of pioneers and patriots, etc...  /sarc

Look out bears, the "animal spirit" of this delayed recovery has been awakened...  HAHAHA

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:35 | 1930208 xcehn
xcehn's picture

We are now officially in unabashedly SAY AND DO ANYTHING AND WHATEVER IT TAKES mode to keep the casinos afloat. That's defcon 1.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 13:40 | 1931115 vato poco
vato poco's picture

Yup. And for the younger generation, who've been raised to see the military as a band of noble patriots; truth justice & american way; honor codes & all might want to revise that opinion some. They lied their asses off about 'nam, from day 1. If they ever cleaned up their act after that, which I doubt, the last 15 years have proven they're right back at it. Mil officers aren't stupid. They see everyone else in DC lying their asses off and getting promoted; and they really WANT that bird or star of extra star, so...."honor codes" start falling by the wayside. Before any of you start screaming about this, kindly consider this: "The death of Pat Tillman" and "the subsequent continued careers and promotions of the generals who orchestrated the coverup of his death, Abizaid and McChrystal."

McChrystal, especially. After Tillman, kindly note he got *promoted*. He didn't get fired till he dissed C-in-C Soetoro.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:17 | 1930053 LuKOsro
LuKOsro's picture

Meanwhile in Germany 1 Year yields turn negative. Cheers Minoan.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:30 | 1930167 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

Damnable madness: the data, this market, indeed -- this nation. A world turned upside-down, where profligacy is rewarded, debt is embraced; where austerity and thrift are mocked.

Damnable madness.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:17 | 1930058 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

I guess this is why people say to never bet against the Fed...

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:19 | 1930078 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

I'll be happy to give you my Federal Reserve Notes for your gold and silver.  I'm calling the Fed's bluff.  If you want to fold, go ahead.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:28 | 1930154 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

I didn't say anything about folding, I'm just stating the obvious and watching people make billions off bullsh!t data...

In the long run silver will do well but if you think the people manipulating the data won't come for your silver you've got an exciting future ahead of you!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:22 | 1930101 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture


Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:26 | 1930126 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

No, I guess you're right. Because one never knows when the Fed will fraudulently manipulate the bond market, the FX market, or (shock horror!) the equities markets.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:27 | 1930138 Clorox Cowboy
Clorox Cowboy's picture

That would be sheeple...with an SH.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 14:42 | 1930299 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture


 "I guess this is why people say to never bet against the Fed..."


Never bet against the Fed, except those times where we've had 90% wipeouts in equities in 7 years (1929 through 1936), 50% corrections in a year (2008-2009), meltdowns of 40% in 8 months (1999-2000), drops of 22% in a day (1987), or secular bear markets where equites declined 30% in nominal terms and 63% in real (i.e. inflation adjusted, survivorship bias adjusted) terms in just another 12 year period (1999 through 2011).

Absolutely correct.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:17 | 1930059 Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

Welcome to Disneyland

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:26 | 1930129 SHEEPFUKKER

I still enjoy watching the debt clock though.....

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:45 | 1930753 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

I watched it yesterday and scowled.

The debt grows more than I earn/yr in less than 3 seconds. By next year I'll need to get it up to 5 seconds to account for inflation.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:17 | 1930060 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Obama is running his election. That's the official game.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:21 | 1930091 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Obama's a pawn. A figurehead. A red herring. Someone the useless eaters can follow, while being robbed.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:49 | 1930308 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

POTUS is a pawn. A figurehead. A red herring. Someone the useless eaters can follow, while being robbed.


Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:22 | 1930105 midtowng
midtowng's picture

Do you really think it matters which flunky is sitting in the White House?

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:35 | 1930207 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

True...presidents get you in and out of wars...that is all they do at this point...the world is run by shady beancounters who are simply motivated only to NOT be the one in charge when the cards collapse..

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:38 | 1930235 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Nah, they don't even do that.

BP, Exxon, Bechtel, Halliburton, JP Morgan... they decide which wars we get into.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 13:19 | 1930995 MeanReversion
MeanReversion's picture

Not an Obama fan but get a clue.  All three of the indicators referred to in this blog entry are reported by three separate private sector institutions, the National Associate of Realtors, ADP and Chicago ISM.  These aren't government statistics. So if one is going to beef about the credibility of the numbers, you're barking up the wrong tree.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:17 | 1930062 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Does anyone actually expect the government to tell the truth about the true state of the economy?

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:22 | 1930100 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Only those who'd actually like to live in a free society.

Freedom opens the doors to a lot of unpleasant things, including poor stats. "Sheltering", or "protecting" the populace from this information is no different to claming the chocolate rations are on the increase.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:27 | 1930146 hangemhigh77
hangemhigh77's picture

you mean SLAVES not populace

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:31 | 1930176 trav7777
trav7777's picture

people don't want to wake up.  They'd prefer to scream TERRORIST or RAYCIST or MALTHUSIAN or DOOMER.

Humans are funny that way.  It's really more accurate to say that EVERYTHING you've come to believe and accept as true is bullshit than it is to say that it's all true.  There are far more lies and myths than there are truths these days.  Perhaps this always was the case.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:22 | 1930102 Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

Does anyone actually expect the government to tell the truth about anything?

Fixed it for you.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:40 | 1930251 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

No, they never have. But what I do expect is the media to call these fuckers out.

The Fourth Estate has become the Fifth Column.

When the revolution comes, forget Wall Street, forget Washington, forget the Fed. Storm the TV studios - the media holds the power.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 13:20 | 1931005 MeanReversion
MeanReversion's picture

It's not the government reporting these numbers, genius.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:17 | 1930064 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Its bonus season.

Perhaps the WS strategists are hoping for carry over and all their bonuses will come in 4 std. deviations above expectations.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:19 | 1930079 emsolý
emsolý's picture

Bogus season is equally appropriate...

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:18 | 1930065 Roland99
Roland99's picture

It's the festive season! Cook the books along with the turkey and ham!


Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:20 | 1930082 Falcon15
Falcon15's picture

The books are overcooked. Theat burning smell is our United States Constitutional Republic starting to smoulder along with it. HOPIUM FOR EVERYONE! OPA!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:18 | 1930066 Irish66
Irish66's picture

Case schiller no longer relevant

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:27 | 1930141 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

It's now engineered for the sell side.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:18 | 1930070 emsolý
emsolý's picture

There are no markets anymore...only interventions. - Chris Powell, GATA

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:18 | 1930072 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Data is pure as a wind driven snow

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:19 | 1930074 Jason T
Jason T's picture

who do these guys think they are, El Nino??

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:19 | 1930077 qussl3
qussl3's picture

No perp walks for the 2008 debacle.

What the hell do you expect these guys to do?

Be honest?

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:20 | 1930085 holycrooks
holycrooks's picture

chinese methods of accounting invaded USA, soon the military.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:20 | 1930087 Zola
Zola's picture

Unicorns !

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:23 | 1930114 Falcon15
Falcon15's picture


Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:33 | 1930168 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture


Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:21 | 1930088 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

We finally completed the outsourcing of American jobs to China.  If results are so good, why do they need a bailout again?  At least now we know why the police took the bats to the heads of OWS about 2 weeks ago, didn't need people out protesting this shit.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:20 | 1930089 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Pending Home Sales is a fucking joke.  Especially if you overlay that with MBS weekly index. 

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:21 | 1930090 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Hey! We gotta make our Xmas bonuses seem worth it! 

Happy Holidays, The Banksters

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:21 | 1930094 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Yay! My job is saved! So are the jobs for the other 1,500 people facing dismissal at my company this month!

So are the tens of thousands of jobs set to be slashed at places such as Bank of America.

Woo-hoo! Nothing to worry about at all!

Santa Claus has come to town, and he's bringing with him full employment for all the Whos in Whoville!

Happy days are here again!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:34 | 1930202 hangemhigh77
hangemhigh77's picture

don't worry all those jobs lost at your company and all the others are being replaced with cops watching every move we make and WalMart greeters.  Unemployment?  What unemployment?  So what if your money doesn't buy a pound of hamburger at least you're working.  Next up, Soilent Green.  Yummy.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:36 | 1930647 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Stop looking at the reality that you are surrounded by. Look at these charts from the Ministry of Truth. Now tell me, which one would you rather believe? There, there, take your pills and you'll feel better.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:22 | 1930098 yogibear
yogibear's picture

An election is coming up. Everyone touts it's perception. The Washington and Wall Street fix is to boost perception, the rest will follow. It's the end of year and fund managers have to have a strong year end. So expect more market pumping. 

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:29 | 1930161 sabra1
sabra1's picture

the election is coming up, then the mid terms are coming up, then the..........

doesn't mean a thing! how many people committed suicide, fell ill from stress, little kids who'll be getting painted rocks for the holidays? at least the congress insiders will be able to get their grandkids shiny new cars!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:22 | 1930103 adr
adr's picture

Pending home sales, really? Maybe if they count sales back to banks and sales from banks to the government. I don't know anyone that bought a home recently. I know a few people in my neighborhood who lost homes to the bank.

Yep that's it, they are counting sales back to banks and sales to the government as an actual sale, the same as an actual consumer buying a home. A transfered contract is a transfereed contract.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:22 | 1930104 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

All data has been improving lately, but the trifecta of fireworks today is nothing short of impressive.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:23 | 1930109 Hansel
Hansel's picture

I heard there was a sale on ground bear meat today.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:23 | 1930110 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You try to explain this to the average investor and they give you a blank stare. All they want to know is whether the market was up or down.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:23 | 1930111 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

I look forward to 4 standard deviation adjustments.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:23 | 1930112 punxsutawney phil
punxsutawney phil's picture

Grip and RIP bitchez


Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:24 | 1930115 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Natural death...

Foreclosure fraud whistleblower found dead

A notary public who signed tens of thousands of false documents in a massive foreclosure scam before blowing the whistle on the scandal has been found dead in her Las Vegas home.

Lawrence came forward earlier this month and blew the whistle on the operation, in which title officers Gary Trafford, 49, of Irvine, Calif., and Geraldine Sheppard, 62, of Santa Ana, Calif. — who worked for a Florida processing company used by most major banks to process repossessions — allegedly forged signatures on tens of thousands of default notices from 2005 to 2008.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:28 | 1930156 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

A centrally planned "natural" death, just as they all will be in the future.  Doubleplusungood.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:43 | 1930268 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Police have ruled out foul play. I don't know whether that means what it's intended to say or whether she wasn't pecked to death by chickens.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:24 | 1930116 Mercury
Mercury's picture

The ADP is known to spike away from the non-farm payroll number from time to time, we know the real estate market isn't that good and the other indicator has the word "Chicago" in it...

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:24 | 1930117 fbrothers
fbrothers's picture

Surely this is a desparate move. I guess they had nothing to loose. They had no credability anyway.


Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:25 | 1930122 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

With such great economic news, the .gov can now get back to metting out "austerity" to the plebes (while increasing "liquidity" throughout the financial sector). Class warfare? Yeah, waged by TPTB

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:26 | 1930127 kito
kito's picture

i dont care. i snagged towels for $1.29 and a 60 inch flatscreen for $ year is made...........

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:26 | 1930134 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The result of simply setting the bar very low.  Imagine how great the numbers will look once everyone is a billionaire!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:32 | 1930184 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Yup. That's always been the emergency plan if the 99% get uppity. In Weimar, the anti-democracy forces had control of the most important weapon of them all : the money printing press. That's how they were able to sink the government and return to autocratic rule: create inflation

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:28 | 1930149 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

FAZ and TZA junkies are getting destroyed

4 standard deviation move in those two Lotto Balls

Heh, I warned you guys...


Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:33 | 1930196 kito
kito's picture

yeah robo, you warned us, just now, because nobody makes better hindsight calls than you..........

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:35 | 1930213 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

Warn?  I've never seen you do anything but yell at what you see in your rear-view mirror.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:35 | 1930214 somethingisrotten
somethingisrotten's picture

The lizard is back one more time.  SSDD !!!!!!!!!!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:46 | 1930285 fuu
fuu's picture

Care to provide a link to that warning?

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:18 | 1930504 kito
kito's picture

its right there, a few posts above yours..........

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:49 | 1930303 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

You always warn us after the fact.. nothing has changed with you.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:03 | 1930381 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Robo failed to mention that he just emptied the last packet of Fancy Feast Ocean Salmon onto a paper plate for his mom, as her RoboTrader 'conviction buy' basket of NFLX/LNKD/GRPN/FSLR/BAC, purchased at highs or near highs, has her worried about losing her home (in which case, RoboMomo loses his basement apartment).

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:12 | 1930453 CPL
CPL's picture

Greg...go work on your site.  Besides any trader worth their salt understands FAZ and TZA enough you don't hold longer than 15 minutes, even then conditions have to be perfect.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:29 | 1930158 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Wheres Joe Stack when you need him.....

USA could use a few more joes.

Like about 300,000,000 of them

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:31 | 1930172 sabra1
sabra1's picture

i prefer joe dirt!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:29 | 1930159 sagerxx
sagerxx's picture

Seems all this "startlingly good news" is the perfect setup for "The economy was finally starting to roar back to life when [insert "unforeseeable 'exogenous' event" here] happened and ruined the long-awaited 'recovery' "...

Or is it just me?...

Viva -- Sager

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:40 | 1930248 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

startlingly good news = squid ink

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:29 | 1930163 Undecided
Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:31 | 1930174 SAME AS IT EVER WAS

Mirror mirror on the wall, who is the best fiddle player of them all!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:32 | 1930181 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Let's see what the NFP data looks like when released on Friday.

Amazing how much the data is defying expectations.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:31 | 1930183 markar
markar's picture

Imagine all this manipulation and intervention just to keep BOA stock above $5

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:33 | 1930194 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

It's always been about BOA including back in March 09. They needed to recapitalize it real fast and they did. BOA did a secondary a couple of weeks later

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:32 | 1930187 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Makes you wonder if the 2012 election will be real. All this great news in our economy and the rest of the world is in disarray. Sure. Seems right out of the socialist playbook and with a complicit media no one wll ever know.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:37 | 1930226 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Well considering the Commissar in Chief will be on the Island of Wall St today and will probably be at the xmas tree all good news photo op day was a necessity.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:34 | 1930199 rambler6421
rambler6421's picture

John Williams would provide better data.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:01 | 1930370 seek
seek's picture

For now.

I work in an econometrics-related job, and these reports are terrifying me. Why?


ADP: privately generated employment statistics (ADP)

Chicago PMI: privately generated research (Markit)

Pending home sales: privately generated statistic (NAR)


So you have private, non-government data producers all simulatenously producing a 4 STDEV upside that no one saw coming (and trust me, when there's a 4 STDEV upside and you're in an econmetrics business, you KNOW something is coming) a the same time the gov't is saying the problem with the markets is confidence.  This this almost certainly means that these companies were given outside instruction to report they results they did.

All of this is insane, and means things are much worse than I imagined. I'd reported earlier that my brother's business was a good canary in the coal mine, and there's only been deterioration, not improvement. Total reality disconnect in the numbers -- psychosis -- being driven by a third party, presumably the government/TPTB.

After government-orderd data-stuffing this comes outright censorship. I think it's time to start collecting IP addresses of your favorite website lest DHS block them before pulling the servers down altogether. I realize this sounds crazy, but so doe three private econometric entities reporting results 4 STDEVs above concensus with absolutely no one seeing the upside ahead of time.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:33 | 1930618 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



So...what flavor is that red pill, anyway?  It's been so long, I've forgotten.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:35 | 1930205 stop.snitching
stop.snitching's picture

BAC is up 20 cents and the talking heads are saying "crisis averted"? It's easy to get sucked into the BS today...and I might be half listening if BAC was up 50% to 7.50...but it isn't, so I'm not. Give it until mid next week and this will be ancient history. 

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:35 | 1930209 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Doesn't this just confirm that the markets have always been rigged?  Who thinks this is just something that happened over the past 3-4 years?

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:36 | 1930218 chindit13
chindit13's picture

Maybe those of us who frequent here are a self-selected group of miscreants, but perhaps a poll is in order, Tyler.

How many people here know someone who was hired last month?

How many people here know someone who contracted to buy a home last month?

How many people here who own businesses have seen a noticeable pick-up in the last month?

(As for yesterday's Consumer Confidence) How many people have heard their friends, associates and acquaintances become more positive in the last month?

Might be interesting to see the experiences of the ZH audience.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:01 | 1930371 SilverBaron
SilverBaron's picture

While driving down Main St. yesterday I noticed that about a third of the buildings (formerly occupied by small businesses) were empty.  Bullish for Wal-Mart?

We need some fake storefronts to complete the illusion.  (Right down to the orange roof on Howard Johnson's outhouse)


Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:15 | 1930474 JR
JR's picture

I've noticed the same.  But at least Wal-Mart got to where she was going on her own two feet, unlike those insiders who were bankrolled by the TBTFs to destroy the small businessmen. Do the name Home Depot ring a familiar note?

What a bad day it will be for the banker boys when Wal-Mart somehow jumps the system’s contrived bank hurdles and forms her own bank…

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 11:20 | 1934880 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Yes Walmart got there on the Credit Cards but as debt by the masses issued by banksters at usurious rates.

And then they squeeze the margins by the manufacturers.


Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:06 | 1930404 JR
JR's picture

I know a long-time realtor in a small town resort area who had to sell her home for lack of sales commissions to pay the mortgage. A friend has put her and her husband up in his vacation home, for free, until times get better… Nearly every house in that area that was for sale last January is still for sale.

As for me and a few friends, we didn’t venture near a mall on Crooked Shopkeeper Friday.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:19 | 1930485 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

I can add the following, from FL:

- I bought a house in September.  It is a nice house with a pool and I got it for what is was worth in the early 1990's.  It was not a foreclosure.

- I have had communications with some corporate insiders who report business is decent to business has never been better.  One, who is mainstream consumer discretionary, tells me 2011 will be a record breaking year for them.  They are in all 50 states and do report major imbalances in performance from region to region.  Very lopsided recovery if you will.  This guy says they cannot reconcile what the markets are doing with how their business is doing.

- In development: there are lots of RFP's being floated and a lot of preliminary work being done on entitlements.  Market instability has caused many businesses to put off starting actual design or construction.  I have been getting indications that after the first of the year, barring anything unforeseen, there is going to be some action to get the projects rolling.  I am in development so this is a major positive for me.  I expect to be back to real work at the beginning of the year.

My personal opinion is that the US led the world into this thing and we will lead the world out of it.  Not because we are special, but because we fell first we will get up first.  If the Euro zone can get it together somehow we should be in pretty good shape for '12.  My 2. 


Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:36 | 1930219 FMR Bankster
FMR Bankster's picture

Seems we've had a steady stream of reports that were later revised down. I'm guessing that won't change with these. And of course the new home sales are signings, not closings, which are falling apart at a record pace. Chicago PMI is a diffusion index, tells the direction not the strength, and chicago seems to have benefited from higher auto production. Wait on that auto purchase as the inventories are building up now. Nothing new here. As long as millions don't have to pay their mortgages and the goverment keeps cutting taxes and running up huge debt we can crawl along with 1-2% GDP growth.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:36 | 1930221 kito
kito's picture

now that the economy is humming along again and robust manufacturing/consumer demand is back, shirley that oil tax of $150/bbl should be kicking in any minute...........

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:37 | 1930223 TooRichtoCare
TooRichtoCare's picture

I don't see why the numbers are only credible if they're disastrously we get a month or so of snap-back numbers which come in better than expected, big deal...doesn't mean they're fake.  Nor of course does it mean that the world's problems (or the US problems) are all solved. It's just one set of good numbers.  I suppose crying conspiracy makes for better reading though....

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:37 | 1930229 kralizec
kralizec's picture

This is nothing.  Wait till 2012, nothing produces bullshit like an election year.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:39 | 1930240 stop.snitching
stop.snitching's picture

Cramer is a fruity clown; just told the CEO of Key Energy "DICK, I DON'T THINK PEOPLE KNOW HOW BIG YOU ARE"

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:41 | 1930253 Odin
Odin's picture

Newspeak bitchez...

...On the plus side, all of us "crazy conspiracy nuts", for all intents and purposes, have now been pretty much vindicated...


Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:43 | 1930256 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Everything about this goverment, this judicial sytem, these politicians, the candidates, this clown in the White House, these banking gangsters and this liar runing the Federal Reserve is out of control, why would you expect this data to be true? 

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:44 | 1930276 bingo was his name
bingo was his name's picture

The Ministry of Truth is in high gear this morning reporting on how the Ministry of Plenty is providing us with a rise in the standard of living.  

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:44 | 1930277 bingo was his name
bingo was his name's picture

The Ministry of Truth is in high gear this morning reporting on how the Ministry of Plenty is providing us with a rise in the standard of living.  

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:51 | 1930316 dfornika
dfornika's picture

Does anyone bother to check whether those distributions are gaussian in shape before they slap a bell-curve over top of them and calculate standard deviations?  That Chicago PMI distribution looks like it would fail almost any test for 'normality.'

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:53 | 1930330 Kina
Kina's picture

So how can anybody have confidence in the US government and its agencies? The Powers That Be in the US are simply bent Mafia, except Mafia have an honour code, and don't kill off the host.

They will lie, cheat, steal, fraud, rape, kill, imprison and anything else you can think of to keep the power and wealth. Glad I don't live in the USA. Get ready for martial law and fascism once this ship goes down.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:53 | 1930331 JR
JR's picture

Lies, lies, and more lies. The Fed is not creating wealth. It is creating poverty amidst abundance, as the international bankers always do.

This whole show reminds me of Stalin’s Five-Year-Plan boasts when he ushered in the notorious era of purge and terror amidst starvation in the mid-1930s on the slogan: “Life is better, comrades, life is gayer.”

Just like Ben Bernanke’s pre-Christmas data lies to fool the consumer psyche, Joseph Stalin’s failed Five Year plans “worked so well” that he was able to declare his goals were generally reached in four years.  Never mind that the people were starving. Today’s reports are no more reality than the pretences of Stalin. 

When the globalists Kissinger and Rubin made globalization pacts with the Red Chinese to replace “Made in the U.S.A.” with “Made in China” they forgot to warn Americans that it would not only cost them their jobs but their standard of living as well.  That time is now.

“Wealth cannot be created out of thin air. Only production effort can create TV sets, refrigerators, automobiles and houses.  Money  can be created out of nothing , because money is not wealth.  --Robert J. Ringer, Restoring The American Dream, 1979.

Lies, all backed by the full force of contrived U.S. government statistics, paid economists, prostituting media, and investment bankers designing fascist corporatism on a worldwide scale – to fool the people until that time when their empty stomachs and unheated houses and depleted savings tell them it just ain’t so.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:54 | 1930340 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

this is a distraction, some good news to cover the final destruction of America in every sense of the concept as the last of our freedoms will most likely die today with the senate vote on the NDAA bill, which is expected to pass. this bill will turn America into a battle field thereby giving the militarized police state the legal authority to circumvent the constitution and bill of rights in their entirety for any ambiguous  "threat to the safety and security of the homeland" they may choose to exaggerate or invent. it puts troops on our streets with the authority to arrest and detain indefinitely anyone, for any reason without a need for due process, probable cause, warrants or a jury of your peers, in essence you will no longer, even in the legal sense, enjoy the privilege of being innocent until proven guilty.

when will people realize just how far down the wrong road we really are?

is to already to late?



Wed, 11/30/2011 - 18:42 | 1932887 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

When your Government calls right wing Christians, gun owners, Constitutionalist and Libartarians "enemy of the State" Via Patriot act II and MIAC report, than yes, we are federally fucked, pun intended.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:56 | 1930343 war6lock
war6lock's picture

I wonder how the seller of the bac jan 6 calls sold yesterday is feeling right now.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:03 | 1930382 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

incompetence, corruption, and despotism are always accompanied by lies....all of america is ful of incompetence, corruption, and despotism

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:10 | 1930441 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



"Mean" is the appropro homophone of the mean reversion that the sheep will suffer in January.  :D

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:34 | 1930623 cwilli01
cwilli01's picture


When you take a metric and trumpet it when it is down, yet mock it when it is up, you a.) do your readers a disservice, and b.) look foolish.

Just something to think about.


Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:56 | 1930878 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

math-challenged nannies = bullish or bullshit? 

lQQK!  the yo-yo goes back up the string, children!

more credit, dears?  you may have all you wish, today!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:59 | 1930895 Sunshine n Lollipops
Sunshine n Lollipops's picture

Hold on now. It looks like you're all forgetting the latest Pending Home Sales sub-category: Garage Sales (including Yard, Patio and Estate Sales), making 4 std. deviations totally legit. 

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 13:45 | 1931147 jplotinus
jplotinus's picture

Obama: Up 20 points.

I think the data are real enough to fool most. Perception trumps reality folks.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 14:38 | 1931471 AndrewCostello
AndrewCostello's picture

The entire world economy is one great big fraud.  The disconnect between the money supply and resources is staggering - and everybody is living in debt.  Sooner rather than later, the elite will crash the whole thing, impoverishing billions, while taking all the wealth for themselves.

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