US Economic Data Reporting Now Officially A Farce: Every Economic Data Point Prints 4+ Std Devs Above Consensus
It appears that central bank intervention was not the only thing in full force today: The US version of the Chinese Ministry of Truth in economic reporting has now officially joined the fray. Anyone wondering just how much of a joke the US high frequency economic data updates have become should look no further than these three charts showing Wall Street forecasts (consensus and distribution) and actual prints for the ADP Payroll, the Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales. Not one indicator has come below 4 standard deviations above the average forecast, and every single one has printed above the highest forecast. It is now safe to say without any doubt that US data is equal if not more equal in credibility terms with that of China.
Below are the charts showing sellside forecast distribution for ADP, Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales. Nuf said.
ADP: 4+ Std Devs above consensus
Chicago PMI: 4 Std Devs above consensus
and Pending Home Sales: 5 Std Devs above consensus
Charts: Bloomberg
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I am really starting to get worried...smells like the lies that were coming out during Vietnam again...
Doubleplusungood.
Standard deviations? Yup, the deviations sure are standard now. Welcome to the new normal. Anything to get the sheeple to Walmart at midnight and all will be fine.
-- Joseph Goebbels
Recovery summers 2009, 2010 & 2011 - maybe Recovery Summer 4.0 (2012) will feel even better!
In the meantime, enjoy the Santa Clause rally, ho, ho, hoes & bitchez.
the MSM continues to repeat, repeat, repeat.
I find it curious that so many of you can see through some of the lies, but refuse to question the rest of the message. No, people say, they ONLY lie about this ONE thing or these FEW things. The rest of the shit they say is true, right?
Segregated accounts being just the latest. But hey I'm not here to burst your bubble. I'm sure Gerald Celente can fill you in on the reality, just make sure you're a subscriber....
Your thinking to deep on this one, STOP IT NOW, and go back to the Kardashians and Football - everyrthing is A-OKAY
I agree, They lie about everything. And it works. People just love to suspend their disbelief.
We can now conclude that there will never be a moment of truth, There will never be a "another" recession or a double dip. The Elite will not allow it - and their Fed Res bankster military corporate CIA Empire will ensure it.
There will be printing and easing and lieing to eternity.
This all just proves that it is ok to have half the population as underclass. Forever. In the US. Roll over India.
When looking into the abyss, considering your own demise, yeah, the lie looks better. It doesn't help anything, except the political end game, but there's always liquor!
Everyone seems to think that the solution is to somehow stop liars from lying- A fool's errand.
The only moral individual action is for people to look in the mirror and be honest with themselves.
The introspective question, “Is what I’m doing really generating the results I intended for myself and others?” is so basically easy, and yet today so many seem afraid of self scrutiny and personal honesty because their senses and their intuitions do not “line up” correctly with the way that everyone has always told them things are “supposed to be”.
The real world is nothing more than the one YOU experience. It has nothing to do with any of the diatribe, propaganda, or pure BS being fed to you by others.
I trust that this knowledge and understanding of reality will gradually seep into the culture. The Internet is a much more powerful instrument of truth than it is of propaganda.
Remember- once the lie is told, 90% of the liar’s effort has to go into obscuring the truth to maintain the lie. This amount of effort is economically (and probably spiritually) untenable.
In contrast: Once the truth is told, the truther can move on to whatever else they feel like doing next. There is no consequential effort to maintaining honesty.
My wizened Grandfather told me something when I was 10 years old that stuck with me forever:
“The truth represents the power of self. Lies represent the power of others. If you cling to their lies, then you empower them unjustly.”
For you Bible-types out there, this is the lesson of Jesus’ walk with Satan in the book of Luke.
For you more literary types, it is the lesson of Hamlet- The world we live in is developing a common social personality and consciousness; and it is unfortunately seriously schizophrenic (if not outright psychotic).
But on the other hand, the great thing about liars is that they all stick together, and when things get rough, they end up attacking each other first.
Things are certainly going to be interesting going forward as the Politicians (liars) and the bankers (liars) and the militant murderers all turn on each other… The best course of action will be to be a spectator on the benches rather than a player on the field. No sense getting sucked into the vortex as collateral damage, is there?
60 Minutes had a great piece on Jack Abramoff a while back- go look it up on Youtube if you missed it.
The cannibalistic feast of the hyenas is getting ready to kick into high gear methinks…
Meanwhile, in the real world, the sun always rises, and there is always opportunity to occupy one's time doing something productive.
The only true risk this planet faces depends on the liars deciding that the requirement of maintaining the lie should mean willfully exterminating the entire species with nukes. But, and I've mentioned this before:
There is no historical evidence anywhere in the fossil or allegorical record of ANY species ever willfully extincting itself. This doesn't mean humanity can't or won't, but it does mean that we would be overcoming some pretty fantastic odds in order to be the first.
Here in the UK, we've continuously had to listen to speeches about "the recovery" since the markets went into a tailspin back in 2008. Here we are, knocking on the door to 2012, and they still discuss "the recovery".
And no doubt, as if by magic, if the economy hasn't tumbled by the end of 2015, they will still be discussing "the recovery".
It's one long-lasting recovery, this is.
Tyler is just a misanthrope.
This is how green shoots work, OK? This is the NEW economy. Get onboard with Robotool and MDB.
We just woke up yesterday and BOOM, there were all these trees out there. They grew like bamboo except on growth hormone.
And they died a week later because it stripped the soil bare until it turned to sand and all the water evaporated.
Weird I can't up vote EndTheFed.
If everything was so rosy, then the Fed would not intervene.
Yet they are intervening, so everything is not rosy.
The answer to all our questions:
Gold, bitchezzz?
47
42
I want to see routine +/- 500 point days, as we did in 2008/2009, again, and I love that headline to the right ---> that says US Pending Home Sales (Oct) M/M 10.4% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. -4.6%)
...that means September pending home sales were down -4.6% from August, but suddenly jumped to +10.4% in October, according to the Ministry or Truth & Hopium.
Let me just say from experience: I've never seen so much bullshit in my life. Home sales ALWAYS spike higher the months of June, July & August, as people are trying to make the deadline of the new school year starting (hurriedly in August), and then sales of new and existing homes suck wind from October through the end of January, because not only has the new school year begun, but people do not have the time nor inclination to look at houses during the Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year holidays (too busy shopping, entertaining, year end work committments, etc).
Total and utter bullshit of the highest magnitude. Let's see if they get the downward revisions in the ballpark.
Or maybe The Bernank had Timmay go around and sign contracts en masse.
There must be literally millions of jobless people buying houses. This is a very positive indicator for the economy, isn't it?
Except the SPX is predicated on misery for the average person. So what we really need is a massive crash in equities to signal that the economy is OK. Full Retard.
'Welcome to the new normal.'
Technically, it's 'Welcome to the new non-normal.'
We are exceeding the goals of the Five Year Plan, comrades.
Wheat production is up, and the people have bread.
Kudos to the Bipartisan Party! /sarc
There is one 4 standard deviation difference headline that I WILL believe when I read it; 'Ron Paul takes 4 standard deviation higher percentage of votes in Iowa primary than predicted by all Main Stream Media outlets'.
Garison Keillor reports today that the average IQ of Lake Wobegone 10th graders has jumped well above expectations to 154 as reported by the BLS.
no; the BLS reported that they were all above the average
I'm not a math major, but I believe the focus on being X number of standard deviations off from GUESSES is not as bad as it may sound, for the reason that these economist guesses about the numbers are not naturally occuring phenomenons like, say, the natural distribution of rain drops falling in a certain area, or the number of baby iguanas born per mom iguana. 4 standard deviations off may be a once in a billion event in nature, but when the object being studied is simply an economist guess, I don't think being off 4 (or 10) SD is an unlikely as it would appear. THey are, after all, guesses we are measuring in the first place.
Today's bullish economic news explains the big market move yesterday.
The big banks and hedge funds were told ahead of time these bullish reports were coming out, and they've positioned themselves accordingly.
As we learned yesterday, when Hank Paulson does it, it's not insider trading.
Insider trading is when outsiders do it.
Well, obviously we're "more equal" than the Chinese! This is America, land of pioneers and patriots, etc... /sarc
Look out bears, the "animal spirit" of this delayed recovery has been awakened... HAHAHA
We are now officially in unabashedly SAY AND DO ANYTHING AND WHATEVER IT TAKES mode to keep the casinos afloat. That's defcon 1.
Yup. And for the younger generation, who've been raised to see the military as a band of noble patriots; truth justice & american way; honor codes & all that....you might want to revise that opinion some. They lied their asses off about 'nam, from day 1. If they ever cleaned up their act after that, which I doubt, the last 15 years have proven they're right back at it. Mil officers aren't stupid. They see everyone else in DC lying their asses off and getting promoted; and they really WANT that bird or star of extra star, so...."honor codes" start falling by the wayside. Before any of you start screaming about this, kindly consider this: "The death of Pat Tillman" and "the subsequent continued careers and promotions of the generals who orchestrated the coverup of his death, Abizaid and McChrystal."
McChrystal, especially. After Tillman, kindly note he got *promoted*. He didn't get fired till he dissed C-in-C Soetoro.
Meanwhile in Germany 1 Year yields turn negative. Cheers Minoan.
http://journey-to-alpha.blogspot.com/2011/11/and-surprise-german-1-year-yield-turns.html
Damnable madness: the data, this market, indeed -- this nation. A world turned upside-down, where profligacy is rewarded, debt is embraced; where austerity and thrift are mocked.
Damnable madness.
I guess this is why people say to never bet against the Fed...
I'll be happy to give you my Federal Reserve Notes for your gold and silver. I'm calling the Fed's bluff. If you want to fold, go ahead.
I didn't say anything about folding, I'm just stating the obvious and watching people make billions off bullsh!t data...
In the long run silver will do well but if you think the people manipulating the data won't come for your silver you've got an exciting future ahead of you!
M.O.P.E.
No, I guess you're right. Because one never knows when the Fed will fraudulently manipulate the bond market, the FX market, or (shock horror!) the equities markets.
That would be sheeple...with an SH.
Sabibaby:
Never bet against the Fed, except those times where we've had 90% wipeouts in equities in 7 years (1929 through 1936), 50% corrections in a year (2008-2009), meltdowns of 40% in 8 months (1999-2000), drops of 22% in a day (1987), or secular bear markets where equites declined 30% in nominal terms and 63% in real (i.e. inflation adjusted, survivorship bias adjusted) terms in just another 12 year period (1999 through 2011).
Absolutely correct.
Welcome to Disneyland
I still enjoy watching the debt clock though.....
I watched it yesterday and scowled.
The debt grows more than I earn/yr in less than 3 seconds. By next year I'll need to get it up to 5 seconds to account for inflation.
Obama is running his election. That's the official game.
Obama's a pawn. A figurehead. A red herring. Someone the useless eaters can follow, while being robbed.
POTUS is a pawn. A figurehead. A red herring. Someone the useless eaters can follow, while being robbed.
Do you really think it matters which flunky is sitting in the White House?
True...presidents get you in and out of wars...that is all they do at this point...the world is run by shady beancounters who are simply motivated only to NOT be the one in charge when the cards collapse..
Nah, they don't even do that.
BP, Exxon, Bechtel, Halliburton, JP Morgan... they decide which wars we get into.
Not an Obama fan but get a clue. All three of the indicators referred to in this blog entry are reported by three separate private sector institutions, the National Associate of Realtors, ADP and Chicago ISM. These aren't government statistics. So if one is going to beef about the credibility of the numbers, you're barking up the wrong tree.
Does anyone actually expect the government to tell the truth about the true state of the economy?
Only those who'd actually like to live in a free society.
Freedom opens the doors to a lot of unpleasant things, including poor stats. "Sheltering", or "protecting" the populace from this information is no different to claming the chocolate rations are on the increase.
you mean SLAVES not populace
people don't want to wake up. They'd prefer to scream TERRORIST or RAYCIST or MALTHUSIAN or DOOMER.
Humans are funny that way. It's really more accurate to say that EVERYTHING you've come to believe and accept as true is bullshit than it is to say that it's all true. There are far more lies and myths than there are truths these days. Perhaps this always was the case.
Does anyone actually expect the government to tell the truth about anything?
Fixed it for you.
No, they never have. But what I do expect is the media to call these fuckers out.
The Fourth Estate has become the Fifth Column.
When the revolution comes, forget Wall Street, forget Washington, forget the Fed. Storm the TV studios - the media holds the power.
It's not the government reporting these numbers, genius.
Its bonus season.
Perhaps the WS strategists are hoping for carry over and all their bonuses will come in 4 std. deviations above expectations.
Bogus season is equally appropriate...
It's the festive season! Cook the books along with the turkey and ham!
The books are overcooked. Theat burning smell is our United States Constitutional Republic starting to smoulder along with it. HOPIUM FOR EVERYONE! OPA!
Case schiller no longer relevant
It's now engineered for the sell side.
There are no markets anymore...only interventions. - Chris Powell, GATA
Data is pure as a wind driven snow
who do these guys think they are, El Nino?? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvmeUStFvz8
No perp walks for the 2008 debacle.
What the hell do you expect these guys to do?
Be honest?
chinese methods of accounting invaded USA, soon the military.
Unicorns !
SKITTLES!
Change!
We finally completed the outsourcing of American jobs to China. If results are so good, why do they need a bailout again? At least now we know why the police took the bats to the heads of OWS about 2 weeks ago, didn't need people out protesting this shit.
Pending Home Sales is a fucking joke. Especially if you overlay that with MBS weekly index.
Hey! We gotta make our Xmas bonuses seem worth it!
Happy Holidays, The Banksters
Yay! My job is saved! So are the jobs for the other 1,500 people facing dismissal at my company this month!
So are the tens of thousands of jobs set to be slashed at places such as Bank of America.
Woo-hoo! Nothing to worry about at all!
Santa Claus has come to town, and he's bringing with him full employment for all the Whos in Whoville!
Happy days are here again!
don't worry all those jobs lost at your company and all the others are being replaced with cops watching every move we make and WalMart greeters. Unemployment? What unemployment? So what if your money doesn't buy a pound of hamburger at least you're working. Next up, Soilent Green. Yummy.
Stop looking at the reality that you are surrounded by. Look at these charts from the Ministry of Truth. Now tell me, which one would you rather believe? There, there, take your pills and you'll feel better.
An election is coming up. Everyone touts it's perception. The Washington and Wall Street fix is to boost perception, the rest will follow. It's the end of year and fund managers have to have a strong year end. So expect more market pumping.
the election is coming up, then the mid terms are coming up, then the..........
doesn't mean a thing! how many people committed suicide, fell ill from stress, little kids who'll be getting painted rocks for the holidays? at least the congress insiders will be able to get their grandkids shiny new cars!
Pending home sales, really? Maybe if they count sales back to banks and sales from banks to the government. I don't know anyone that bought a home recently. I know a few people in my neighborhood who lost homes to the bank.
Yep that's it, they are counting sales back to banks and sales to the government as an actual sale, the same as an actual consumer buying a home. A transfered contract is a transfereed contract.
All data has been improving lately, but the trifecta of fireworks today is nothing short of impressive.
I heard there was a sale on ground bear meat today.
You try to explain this to the average investor and they give you a blank stare. All they want to know is whether the market was up or down.
I look forward to 4 standard deviation adjustments.
Grip and RIP bitchez
Natural death...
http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/11/29/9099162-foreclosure-fraud-w...
Foreclosure fraud whistleblower found dead
A notary public who signed tens of thousands of false documents in a massive foreclosure scam before blowing the whistle on the scandal has been found dead in her Las Vegas home.
Lawrence came forward earlier this month and blew the whistle on the operation, in which title officers Gary Trafford, 49, of Irvine, Calif., and Geraldine Sheppard, 62, of Santa Ana, Calif. — who worked for a Florida processing company used by most major banks to process repossessions — allegedly forged signatures on tens of thousands of default notices from 2005 to 2008.
A centrally planned "natural" death, just as they all will be in the future. Doubleplusungood.
Police have ruled out foul play. I don't know whether that means what it's intended to say or whether she wasn't pecked to death by chickens.
The ADP is known to spike away from the non-farm payroll number from time to time, we know the real estate market isn't that good and the other indicator has the word "Chicago" in it...
Surely this is a desparate move. I guess they had nothing to loose. They had no credability anyway.