US Economic Data Reporting Now Officially A Farce: Every Economic Data Point Prints 4+ Std Devs Above Consensus

Tyler Durden's picture

It appears that central bank intervention was not the only thing in full force today: The US version of the Chinese Ministry of Truth in economic reporting has now officially joined the fray. Anyone wondering just how much of a joke the US high frequency economic data updates have become should look no further than these three charts showing Wall Street forecasts (consensus and distribution) and actual prints for the ADP Payroll, the Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales. Not one indicator has come below 4 standard deviations above the average forecast, and every single one has printed above the highest forecast. It is now safe to say without any doubt that US data is equal if not more equal in credibility terms with that of China.

Below are the charts showing sellside forecast distribution for ADP, Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales. Nuf said.

ADP: 4+ Std Devs above consensus

Chicago PMI: 4 Std Devs above consensus

and Pending Home Sales: 5 Std Devs above consensus

Charts: Bloomberg

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NEOSERF's picture

I am really starting to get worried...smells like the lies that were coming out during Vietnam again...


Standard deviations? Yup, the deviations sure are standard now.  Welcome to the new normal.  Anything to get the sheeple to Walmart at midnight and all will be fine. 

TruthInSunshine's picture
“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”


-- Joseph Goebbels


Recovery summers 2009, 2010 & 2011 - maybe Recovery Summer 4.0 (2012) will feel even better!

In the meantime, enjoy the Santa Clause rally, ho, ho, hoes & bitchez.


trav7777's picture

the MSM continues to repeat, repeat, repeat.

I find it curious that so many of you can see through some of the lies, but refuse to question the rest of the message.  No, people say, they ONLY lie about this ONE thing or these FEW things.  The rest of the shit they say is true, right?

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Segregated accounts being just the latest. But hey I'm not here to burst your bubble. I'm sure Gerald Celente can fill you in on the reality, just make sure you're a subscriber....

YBNguy's picture

Your thinking to deep on this one, STOP IT NOW, and go back to the Kardashians and Football - everyrthing is A-OKAY

eureka's picture

I agree, They lie about everything. And it works. People just love to suspend their disbelief.

We can now conclude that there will never be a moment of truth, There will never be a "another" recession or a double dip. The Elite will not allow it - and their Fed Res bankster military corporate CIA Empire will ensure it.

There will be printing and easing and lieing to eternity.

This all just proves that it is ok to have half the population as underclass. Forever. In the US. Roll over India.

Chuck Walla's picture

When looking into the abyss, considering your own demise, yeah, the lie looks better.  It doesn't help anything, except the political end game, but there's always liquor!

Random_Robert's picture

Everyone seems to think that the solution is to somehow stop liars from lying- A fool's errand.

The only moral individual action is for people to look in the mirror and be honest with themselves.

The introspective question, “Is what I’m doing really generating the results I intended for myself and others?” is so basically easy, and yet today so many seem afraid of self scrutiny and personal honesty because their senses and their intuitions do not “line up” correctly with the way that everyone has always told them things are “supposed to be”.

The real world is nothing more than the one YOU experience. It has nothing to do with any of the diatribe, propaganda, or pure BS being fed to you by others.

I trust that this knowledge and understanding of reality will gradually seep into the culture. The Internet is a much more powerful instrument of truth than it is of propaganda.

Remember- once the lie is told, 90% of the liar’s effort has to go into obscuring the truth to maintain the lie. This amount of effort is economically (and probably spiritually) untenable.

In contrast: Once the truth is told, the truther can move on to whatever else they feel like doing next. There is no consequential effort to maintaining honesty.

My wizened Grandfather told me something when I was 10 years old that stuck with me forever:

“The truth represents the power of self. Lies represent the power of others. If you cling to their lies, then you empower them unjustly.”

For you Bible-types out there, this is the lesson of Jesus’ walk with Satan in the book of Luke.

For you more literary types, it is the lesson of Hamlet- The world we live in is developing a common social personality and consciousness; and it is unfortunately seriously schizophrenic (if not outright psychotic).

But on the other hand, the great thing about liars is that they all stick together, and when things get rough, they end up attacking each other first.

Things are certainly going to be interesting going forward as the Politicians (liars) and the bankers (liars) and the militant murderers all turn on each other… The best course of action will be to be a spectator on the benches rather than a player on the field. No sense getting sucked into the vortex as collateral damage, is there?

60 Minutes had a great piece on Jack Abramoff a while back- go look it up on Youtube if you missed it.

The cannibalistic feast of the hyenas is getting ready to kick into high gear methinks…

Meanwhile, in the real world, the sun always rises, and there is always opportunity to occupy one's time doing something productive.

The only true risk this planet faces depends on the liars deciding that the requirement of maintaining the lie should mean willfully exterminating the entire species with nukes. But, and I've mentioned this before:

There is no historical evidence  anywhere in the fossil or allegorical record of ANY species ever willfully extincting itself. This doesn't mean humanity can't or won't, but it does mean that we would be overcoming some pretty fantastic odds in order to be the first.

EscapeKey's picture

Here in the UK, we've continuously had to listen to speeches about "the recovery" since the markets went into a tailspin back in 2008. Here we are, knocking on the door to 2012, and they still discuss "the recovery".

And no doubt, as if by magic, if the economy hasn't tumbled by the end of 2015, they will still be discussing "the recovery".

It's one long-lasting recovery, this is.

trav7777's picture

Tyler is just a misanthrope.

This is how green shoots work, OK?  This is the NEW economy.  Get onboard with Robotool and MDB.

We just woke up yesterday and BOOM, there were all these trees out there.  They grew like bamboo except on growth hormone.

CPL's picture

And they died a week later because it stripped the soil bare until it turned to sand and all the water evaporated.


Weird I can't up vote EndTheFed.

hedgeless_horseman's picture



If everything was so rosy, then the Fed would not intervene. 

Yet they are intervening, so everything is not rosy.

kaiserhoff's picture

The answer to all our questions:

TruthInSunshine's picture

I want to see routine +/- 500 point days, as we did in 2008/2009, again, and I love that headline to the right ---> that says US Pending Home Sales (Oct) M/M 10.4% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. -4.6%)

...that means September pending home sales were down -4.6% from August, but suddenly jumped to +10.4% in October, according to the Ministry or Truth & Hopium.


Let me just say from experience:  I've never seen so much bullshit in my life. Home sales ALWAYS spike higher the months of June, July & August, as people are trying to make the deadline of the new school year starting (hurriedly in August), and then sales of new and existing homes suck wind from October through the end of January, because not only has the new school year begun, but people do not have the time nor inclination to look at houses during the Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year holidays (too busy shopping, entertaining, year end work committments, etc).

Total and utter bullshit of the highest magnitude. Let's see if they get the downward revisions in the ballpark.

Or maybe The Bernank had Timmay go around and sign contracts en masse.

Smiddywesson's picture

There must be literally millions of jobless people buying houses.  This is a very positive indicator for the economy, isn't it?

dracos_ghost's picture

Except the SPX is predicated on misery for the average person. So what we really need is a massive crash in equities to signal that the economy is OK. Full Retard.

machineh's picture

'Welcome to the new normal.'

Technically, it's 'Welcome to the new non-normal.'

We are exceeding the goals of the Five Year Plan, comrades. 

Wheat production is up, and the people have bread. 

Kudos to the Bipartisan Party! /sarc

r101958's picture

There is one 4 standard deviation difference headline that I WILL believe when I read it; 'Ron Paul takes 4 standard deviation higher percentage of votes in Iowa primary than predicted by all Main Stream Media outlets'.

el Gallinazo's picture

Garison Keillor reports today that the average IQ of Lake Wobegone 10th graders has jumped well above expectations to 154 as reported by the BLS.

trav7777's picture

no; the BLS reported that they were all above the average

Hungry For Knowledge's picture

I'm not a math major, but I believe the focus on being X number of standard deviations off from GUESSES is not as bad as it may sound, for the reason that these economist guesses about the numbers are not naturally occuring phenomenons like, say, the natural distribution of rain drops falling in a certain area, or the number of baby iguanas born per mom iguana.  4 standard deviations off may be a once in a billion event in nature, but when the object being studied is simply an economist guess, I don't think being off 4 (or 10) SD is an unlikely as it would appear. THey are, after all, guesses we are measuring in the first place.

midtowng's picture

Today's bullish economic news explains the big market move yesterday.

The big banks and hedge funds were told ahead of time these bullish reports were coming out, and they've positioned themselves accordingly.

EscapeKey's picture

As we learned yesterday, when Hank Paulson does it, it's not insider trading.

Insider trading is when outsiders do it.

Clorox Cowboy's picture

Well, obviously we're "more equal" than the Chinese!  This is America, land of pioneers and patriots, etc...  /sarc

Look out bears, the "animal spirit" of this delayed recovery has been awakened...  HAHAHA

xcehn's picture

We are now officially in unabashedly SAY AND DO ANYTHING AND WHATEVER IT TAKES mode to keep the casinos afloat. That's defcon 1.

vato poco's picture

Yup. And for the younger generation, who've been raised to see the military as a band of noble patriots; truth justice & american way; honor codes & all might want to revise that opinion some. They lied their asses off about 'nam, from day 1. If they ever cleaned up their act after that, which I doubt, the last 15 years have proven they're right back at it. Mil officers aren't stupid. They see everyone else in DC lying their asses off and getting promoted; and they really WANT that bird or star of extra star, so...."honor codes" start falling by the wayside. Before any of you start screaming about this, kindly consider this: "The death of Pat Tillman" and "the subsequent continued careers and promotions of the generals who orchestrated the coverup of his death, Abizaid and McChrystal."

McChrystal, especially. After Tillman, kindly note he got *promoted*. He didn't get fired till he dissed C-in-C Soetoro.

Don Birnam's picture

Damnable madness: the data, this market, indeed -- this nation. A world turned upside-down, where profligacy is rewarded, debt is embraced; where austerity and thrift are mocked.

Damnable madness.

Sabibaby's picture

I guess this is why people say to never bet against the Fed...

SeverinSlade's picture

I'll be happy to give you my Federal Reserve Notes for your gold and silver.  I'm calling the Fed's bluff.  If you want to fold, go ahead.

Sabibaby's picture

I didn't say anything about folding, I'm just stating the obvious and watching people make billions off bullsh!t data...

In the long run silver will do well but if you think the people manipulating the data won't come for your silver you've got an exciting future ahead of you!

EscapeKey's picture

No, I guess you're right. Because one never knows when the Fed will fraudulently manipulate the bond market, the FX market, or (shock horror!) the equities markets.

Clorox Cowboy's picture

That would be sheeple...with an SH.

TruthInSunshine's picture


 "I guess this is why people say to never bet against the Fed..."


Never bet against the Fed, except those times where we've had 90% wipeouts in equities in 7 years (1929 through 1936), 50% corrections in a year (2008-2009), meltdowns of 40% in 8 months (1999-2000), drops of 22% in a day (1987), or secular bear markets where equites declined 30% in nominal terms and 63% in real (i.e. inflation adjusted, survivorship bias adjusted) terms in just another 12 year period (1999 through 2011).

Absolutely correct.

Ratscam's picture

Welcome to Disneyland


I still enjoy watching the debt clock though.....

Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

I watched it yesterday and scowled.

The debt grows more than I earn/yr in less than 3 seconds. By next year I'll need to get it up to 5 seconds to account for inflation.

YesWeKahn's picture

Obama is running his election. That's the official game.

EscapeKey's picture

Obama's a pawn. A figurehead. A red herring. Someone the useless eaters can follow, while being robbed.

Shizzmoney's picture

POTUS is a pawn. A figurehead. A red herring. Someone the useless eaters can follow, while being robbed.


midtowng's picture

Do you really think it matters which flunky is sitting in the White House?

NEOSERF's picture

True...presidents get you in and out of wars...that is all they do at this point...the world is run by shady beancounters who are simply motivated only to NOT be the one in charge when the cards collapse..

EscapeKey's picture

Nah, they don't even do that.

BP, Exxon, Bechtel, Halliburton, JP Morgan... they decide which wars we get into.

MeanReversion's picture

Not an Obama fan but get a clue.  All three of the indicators referred to in this blog entry are reported by three separate private sector institutions, the National Associate of Realtors, ADP and Chicago ISM.  These aren't government statistics. So if one is going to beef about the credibility of the numbers, you're barking up the wrong tree.