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With The US Economy Sliding Back To Recession, Here Is What The Fed Will Do Next
Back in May when we presented our humble and succinct analysis on what the preliminary 1.8% GDP looked like, we said "Ex the now traditional inventory build [of 1.2%], Q1 GDP growth was sub 1%" basically being the only party who said that aside for the "old faithful plug" better known as the traditional BEA fudge to get GDP to whereever the administration wants it, growth was where it ultimately ended up being: 0.4%. And the kicker? The primary cause of the downward revision was, you guessed it, Inventories, which imploded from 1.31% to 0.32% (see chart). In other words, the next time we are skeptical about government data in any format, believe us, and not "them." Which also goes for our skepticism when it comes to the predictive ability of one Goldman Sachs, most notably our take on Goldman's December 1 2010 "watershed" report in which Hatzius said: "This outlook represents a fundamental shift in the thinking that has governed our forecast for at least the last five years... Five years ago, we became very pessimistic about the US economic outlook...So why do we now expect growth to pick up? In a nutshell, it is because underlying demand has strengthened significantly... After a deep downturn from 2007 to mid-2009 and near-stagnation from mid-2009 to mid-2010, underlying demand is now accelerating sharply. Currently, it is on track for a 5% (annualized) growth rate in the fourth quarter." Total and utter fail. Our summary then was also rather spot on: "Much more hopium inside. This is unfortunate. Jan Hatzius used to have credibility." Indeed, after waiting for so long, the firm once again capitulated per its most recent report released last night: "Our forecasts for 3%-3.5% growth in Q4 and 2012 are under review for probable downgrade." So with apologies for the self-backpatting, this brings us to the topic of this post. As we have said for over a year, the catalyst for QE3 will be none other than Goldman. Which is convenient because the title of Goldman's report is "The Fed's Easing Options." Pretty much as subtle as it gets: a month ahead of Jackson Hole, Goldman, aka the Federal Reserve's superior, has not only also admitted the other theme was have been pounding the table on, namely that 2011 is a carbon copy of 2011, but has also listed out the entire menu of options for former Goldmanite Bill Dudley to present to his inferior, Ben Bernanke. Let's dig in.
The Fed’s Easing Options
In a remarkable parallel to last year, Fed officials head into their August meeting amidst weak growth and questions about the possibility of further monetary easing. There are of course major differences between then and now, which Chairman Bernanke has been quick to point out in public statements. Most importantly, inflation is much higher—the core CPI increased at an annualized rate of 2.5% over the last six months—and inflation expectations are at levels consistent with the Fed’s mandate.
Nevertheless, growth is running well below trend— GDP grew by just 0.8% annualized in the first half of the year—and recession risks have increased. Some measures of underlying inflation have also started to cool. If downside risks materialize, further easing might well become appropriate.
Consistent with these risks, comments from Fed officials have shifted slightly in an easing direction over the last month. For example, minutes of the June FOMC meeting reported that some participants thought “it would be appropriate to provide additional monetary policy accommodation” if growth remained slow.
Chairman Bernanke also listed easing options in his semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress (formerly known as “Humphrey-Hawkins”) and Chicago Fed President Evans recently said he could support further easing if growth disappoints.
With many arrows already launched, what remains in the central bank’s quiver? Here we walk through the main easing options and our sense of the Fed’s willingness to use them. They fall into three main groups: 1) communication, 2) asset purchases, and 3) interest rate policy.
Communication: Even More Extended?
Because asset values imbed investors’ expectations about the future, monetary policy can influence current financial conditions by changing expectations. In part this is achieved by following predictable (perhaps loosely rule-based) policy over time. Today, when US activity weakens, funds rate expectations and longer-term interest rates reflexively fall, because investors have observed consistent behavior from the Fed and understand its reaction function. This in turn eases financial conditions and supports growth—monetary policy on autopilot.
Central bankers also shape market expectations through public communication (“Fed speak”). In earlier research, then-governor Bernanke argued that managing investor expectations through communication can be a valuable tool when policy rates have reached their lower bound:
“Even with the overnight rate at zero, the central bank may be able to impart additional stimulus to the economy by persuading the public that the policy rate will remain low for a longer period than was previously expected. One means of doing so would be to shade interest-rate expectations downward by making a commitment to the public to follow a policy of extended monetary ease.”
The Fed has implemented this type of “forward guidance” a number of times (Exhibit 1), most recently through its “extended period” pledge: “The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions … are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.” Our research has found that this language has roughly the same effect on financial conditions as a 30bp funds rate cut.
Changes in official communication would likely be the first step in any renewed easing. In particular, we believe an attractive option would be the use of some kind of forward guidance for the size of the Fed’s balance sheet (“extended period” currently only refers to the level of the funds rate). Bernanke fielded a question on this issue at the June FOMC meeting press conference and responded: “It’s something we have on the table, something we’ve thought about.”
The idea came up again in his Humphrey-Hawkins testimony and in a speech by Brian Sack—head of the New York Fed’s Markets Group—last week. The purpose of this type of language would be to push back investor expectations for when the Fed will allow its balance sheet to shrink. A recent survey showed that 72% of economic forecasters expect the balance sheet to start shrinking later this year or in the first half of 20124. Therefore, announcing that the balance sheet will remain the same size “for an extended period” would likely change market expectations.
Based on New York Fed estimates, pushing back expectations for the start of the decline in the balance sheet by one year would be the equivalent of removing expectations for one 25bp rate hike (assuming all assets were allowed to run off, which amounts to a rate of about $250bn per year).
Other changes in official communication are also possible. In his Jackson Hole speech last year, Bernanke mentioned two ideas: committing to keep policy rates unchanged for a specific time (like the Bank of Canada did in 2009-2010) or tying rate changes to specific developments in the economy (like the Bank of Japan did during its quantitative easing experiment in 2001-2006). President Evans discussed similar ideas in his recent remarks.
We believe these options are on the table but that they are unlikely to be enacted. First, funds rate expectations are already extremely low, and further language changes would therefore need to be quite significant to lower market rates much further (Exhibit 2). Second, some Fed research finds that the Bank of Canada’s commitment language had a similar effect as “extended period”, implying that the Fed would gain little by moving in that direction. Third, Bernanke noted at Jackson Hole that “it may be difficult to convey the Committee’s policy intentions with sufficient precision and conditionality.”
A final set of options relate to communication about the Fed’s mandate. In particular, Fed officials have frequently raised the prospect of more clearly quantifying their inflation objective. Most committee members seem in favor of this idea, but a number of issues appear to have held back implementation, including questions about the dual mandate and uncertain benefits relative to the current system. We do not think an inflation target is around the corner but also cannot rule it out. A few officials have also raised the idea of price level targeting. We think this is a realistic prospect in a deflationary scenario, but not before that point.
Asset Purchases: Composition is Key
Asset purchases have played a major role in the Fed’s response to the recession and financial crisis and would likely be a component of any future easing. One obvious option would be a large-scale Treasury purchase program like the one just concluded. Although there is still significant debate about the impact of quantitative easing (QE) on the economy, earlier purchase programs did appear to ease financial conditions and raise inflation expectations.
If the Fed were to restart QE, our research suggests that each $1 trillion of asset purchases would be roughly equivalent to a 75bp cut in the funds rate. Fed officials appear to see a larger effect, with each $1 trillion in Treasuries purchased substituting for a 67-200bp cut in the funds rate.
One potential drawback of additional QE is that the Fed’s balance sheet is already quite large. Bernanke has expressed concern that further expansions of the
balance sheet could lead to “an undesired increase in inflation expectations”. Perhaps because of a desire to avoid further growth in the absolute size of the balance sheet, recent public comments suggest the Fed might prefer to change the composition of its assets.
In the Fed’s view as well as ours, QE works through a portfolio rebalancing channel: by buying securities and issuing reserves, the Fed reduces the overall supply of risky assets available for the private sector and thereby raises the equilibrium price of those assets. In the specific case of Treasury purchases, the Fed removes duration (interest rate) risk from the aggregate private sector portfolio and takes it on its balance sheet.
If the portfolio rebalancing framework is correct, then what matters is not the face value of the Fed’s balance sheet but the amount of duration risk it holds. Exhibit 3 demonstrates the difference for the Fed’s holdings of Treasury notes and bonds (the Fed’s total portfolio also includes Treasury bills, agency debt and agency MBS). The chart shows the face value of the Fed’s holdings and our estimate of its holdings in 10-year equivalent terms—that is, the amount of 10-year
Treasuries that would equate to the same duration risk.
At present the Fed owns $1.6 trillion in Treasury notes and bonds and around $1 trillion in 10-year equivalent duration. The estimate for 10-year equivalents is significantly lower because the weighted-average duration of the Fed’s Treasury portfolio (roughly 5 years) is lower than the current duration of a 10-year Treasury note (about 8.5 years).
One idea—mentioned in Brian Sack’s recent remarks—would be to keep the overall size of the Fed’s portfolio unchanged, but to increase its duration risk by buying longer-term securities. The Fed is already buying Treasuries regularly in order to reinvest paydowns from its MBS holdings (a policy in place since August 2010). A simple way to lean policy in a slightly easier direction would be to weight those purchases toward longer maturities. Currently the Fed allocates 6% of its purchases to nominal Treasuries with 10-30 years remaining maturity. By increasing this share, it could raise the amount of duration risk it is taking on its balance sheet with the flow of purchases. Even if the total face value of the Fed’s portfolio remains unchanged, an increase in its aggregate duration risk should be considered an easing of monetary policy.
Currently the flow of purchases for MBS reinvestment is relatively low—just $14bn per month according to the latest schedule—and the incremental duration risk the Fed could add to its portfolio through these purchases is relatively small. Therefore, as a more aggressive step, the committee could consider changing its reinvestment policy for the Treasury portfolio. For example, we believe the Fed has the authority to rebalance its reinvestment of maturing securities at Treasury auctions toward longer-duration securities (e.g. 10-year notes instead of 3-year notes).
Beyond additional purchases of Treasuries or changing the composition of its holdings, the Fed’s choices are limited. Agency MBS is one option, but the Fed appears inclined to move toward a Treasuries-only portfolio over time. We doubt the committee would move back to MBS purchases without signs of significant distress in the mortgage market. Purchases of private sector assets could be more effective from a portfolio rebalancing perspective, but the scope for these types of purchases is limited by the Federal Reserve Act (Exhibit 4).
Interest Rate Policy: A Dry Well
A final easing option often listed by Fed officials is a cut in the interest on excess reserves (IOER) rate—the rate that banks earn on deposits held at the Fed above levels mandated by regulation. The IOER rate is to zero (or perhaps even a negative value).
We see little merit in this option, and continue to believe that the Fed is unlikely to use it. First, the benefits are likely to be very small. While the IOER rate is 0.25%, the effective federal funds rate is only 0.08% (Exhibit 5). Thus, the maximum impact from cutting the IOER rate to zero is just 8bp.
Second, cutting the IOER rate down to zero could be harmful to market institutions. Chairman Bernanke made this argument himself in Q&A at the July 2010 Humphrey-Hawkins testimony:
“The rationale for not going all the way to zero has been that we want the short-term money markets like the Federal funds market to continue to function in a reasonable way, because if rates go to zero, there will be no incentive for buying and selling Federal funds overnight money in the banking system. And if that market shuts down, people don’t operate in that market, it will be more difficult to manage short-term interest rates when the Federal Reserve begins to tighten policy at some point in the future.”
We expect that Fed officials would hold the same view about cutting the IOER rate today. Finally, as we argued in a recent article, calls for cutting the IOER rate are partly motivated by the premise that banks are holding excess reserves because of an unwillingness to lend. In fact, the level of reserves is controlled entirely by the size and composition of the Fed’s balance sheet, and says nothing about banks’ incentives or their willingness to lend. Cutting the IOER could theoretically stimulate activity by easing financial conditions and boosting loan demand, but it would not affect the quantity of reserves in the banking system.
Where We Stand
In recent remarks Fed officials have not appeared ready to ease policy. As Bernanke said on the second day of his Humphrey-Hawkins testimony: “we’re not prepared at this point to take further action”. He listed three reasons: 1) inflation is higher than last year, 2) inflation expectations are close to the Fed’s target, and 3) the Fed is forecasting a rebound in growth, whereas last year “the recovery looked like it was stalling.” For the Fed to ease it would likely need to see: 1) significant risks of recession or 2) continued soft growth, lower core inflation and perhaps falling inflation expectations. President Evans said that Q3 growth will be critical to his thinking:
“It’s obvious that the third quarter has to show improvement and it ought to show a high likelihood of sustained improvement … If we continue to have weakness in the third quarter, it’s going to be harder to plausibly sustain this idea, ‘The next six months is going to get better.’ We’ve been saying that for quite some time now.”
If the Fed were to shift its policy stance, we believe the process would start with a change in communication—most likely related to the timeline over which the balance sheet would shrink—and be followed by changes in the composition of its assets. In our view these options already have reasonably high odds. An expansion of the balance sheet (QE3) looks less likely unless the outlook deteriorates significantly further.
Changing communication or the composition of the balance sheet would largely be symbolic. Our quantitative estimates suggest the benefits to growth would likely be small.
And as for the strawman that the US economy will be weak, Goldman conveniently provides the following report in the second part of its analysis explaining the horrible Q2 numbers. Also, for the record, we are confident, Goldman's Q3 GDP target of 2.5% will absolutely not be met.
Forecast Highlights
1. We forecast that real GDP will pick up modestly from its anemic pace in the first half of the year to 2.5% (annualized) in Q3. Our forecasts for 3%-3.5% growth in Q4 and 2012 are under review for probable downgrade. Although oil prices have stabilized somewhat after their surge earlier this year, they are likely to remain a meaningful drag on consumer spending and business investment. And fiscal tightening—already more substantial in H1 than we expected—is apt to increase in 2012. The inability of policymakers to agree on a measure to lift the federal debt ceiling has damaged consumer confidence, not to mention our own confidence in a broader-based normalization in the economy.
2. Continued high unemployment, with only a marginal drop in the jobless rate to 8.8% by year-end 2012. Our forecast is for second-half growth roughly at trend, so we expect the unemployment rate to end the year at its current level of 9.2%. Growth of 3¼% in 2012 would bring it down, but only slightly.
3. Core inflation peaks around the end of the year. We expect the core PCE price index to accelerate further to 1.9% yoy by the fourth quarter, from 1.2% now. Two factors contributing to the recent acceleration—a surge in vehicle prices and pass-through from higher commodity inflation—should begin to ease later in the year. Rising rent inflation—caused in part by a decline in homeownership and surge in demand for apartments—is likely to remain a source of inflation pressure in the major price indexes. Overall, however, we see headline and core inflation decelerating throughout 2012.
4. No Fed rate hikes before 2013. Data disappointments have clinched our longstanding call for 2011 and made it even more likely for 2012 than we previously thought. With the jobless rate far above the Federal Open Market Committee’s “mandate-consistent” 5%-6% range and drifting higher, and core inflation still below the comparable “2% or a bit less” standard, the near-term question is how seriously the Fed will consider the easing options discussed on the previous pages.
5. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes reach 3¾% by year-end 2011 and 4¼% by year-end 2012. This forecast presumes recent weakness in US activity proves temporary; in that case, we believe that many participants in the financial markets will turn their attention back to higher inflation.
And for those who really want to know the specifics, including the dirty secrets, of the Fed's next steps, we once again present the June 24-25, 2003 Vince Reinhart FOMC Minutes Appendix 1 which has all you need to know and more.
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Yes it is Cosmic.
ORI
Our president is the greatest there has ever been. He has saved the economy from disaster, created many many jobs, appointed other great people to positions of power and allowed his wife to create nutritional lunches for kids.
Shame on you Mr. Disrespectful.
.
--You WILL Obey!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTOcAt44_QA
and in 08 we got Obama....that tells you all you need to know about the primacy of delusion in this nation at least.
This is a very good point, thank you.
The voting/consuming/working/tax-paying people in all countries must come to grips with the fact that Delusion (read: propaganda, advertising) is of grave import to their owners as a tool in maintaining control.
The Obama campaign was significant, not because a black man was elected, but because the populace (me included I admit but only til about Sept. 08 and only on one topic: jobs) bought the HOPE. People turned away from the Man Behind the Curtain and hoped against hope that the NEO CON/Bankster/Military Industrial Complex pillaging was over, for a while at least, and that there was going to be a president in the WH acting By and For the People.
Hopium becomes Nopium.
Instead, we have yet another White House resident carrying water for an owning cohort that does not care about a thriving middle class, peace, the ecology, etcetera-and-so-on. Control. That's it. That's what the owners focus on and this president, his colleagues across the globe, and their atrocious predecessors by the many are and were Captured by a power structure that clearly and unabashedly acts outside of the interests of the welfare of the world's people and especially the economies we ALL depend on.
Despite elections, contrary majority support, violent protests; the owners always prevail.
Why is that? A deluded people.
Control is their goal and Delusion is their tool.
Sustainability, not growth.
Sustainability, and you'll be lucky if you can keep it.
I have often said that things are bad, just not fucked up enough in the US. When QE3 starts up, the rich get richer, and the poor get the picture. That might just be fucked up enough.
But don't you guys see? QE2 was in full roar during this 0.4% collapse!
It has no growth value, and Bernanke now knows it.
There is no point in a QE3, and he knows that, too. There's no lack of liquidity.
There's a lack of oil.
yep.
We need to remember that the "growth" only happened after a significant DECLINE. Other nations with less-practiced GDP number liars reported much steeper declines during the GFC. The demand crash in oil was profound; the US alone dropped 10% of consumption. Growth just grew back into that slack capacity and here we are again bumping into the overhead supply curve
There will be QE whatever, ad infinitum, until the banks' losses from the punctured bubble are completely papered over.
Unless there is a bond market collapse taking the currencies down with it first. Which would probably be better for all of us in the long run.
The Hubris of Washington DC;
a) The "Debt" negotiations (how much longer than perpetual will your debt servitude last?)
b) QE (how much real value can be silently stolen from your pay before you insist on a raise?)
It's Soylent Green they are discussing in such dispassionate and abstract terms. It's YOU. YOUR life. YOUR value to them is only the potential you hold as a victim to their scheme.
I disagree. The reason we've had QE1-lite-2 is because the Fed and Congress/President have been on the same page. The QE operations have helped both the banks and the politicians so both groups (congress generally speaking) are in favor of it. However, QE has the unfortunate consequence of causing food and energy price inflation. The masses may not understand QE, but they sure as hell understand not being able to fill up their tank. And they will blame their elected representative for that fact. If the Fed attempts QE3, I think they will find themselves in conflict with Congress/Obama for the first time. QE3 will directly threaten the re-election chances of Congress/Obama and then we will see what happens.
People still don't get it. The financial crisis depleted the Fed's stock of Treasury holdings. QE1 served to bring their holdings exactly back to precrisis levels. QE2 brought it back into the long term trend rate of accumulation (appx. 8% increase per year - which powers the long term avg. rate of equity returns ex-dividend yield). Currently the Fed is about 500 billion above trend in their historical accumulation rate of Treasuries. Barring another crisis where the Fed is forced to exchange Treasuries for some other type of paper to recapitalize banks; the next QE is at least two years off.
"Barring another crisis..."
Well aren't you the betting man.
i have a friend whose girlfriend's father (who's a 30-something degree Mason in some unnamed latin american country) sent them a DVD to watch. guess what it was?
we're gonna watch it tonight under the stars.
Transformers 3 bootleg?
nope, take your name, replace the V with a Why?, look under your belly for algae and you'll have your answer.
Godzilla "Why?"s Mothra?
nope, tho Mothra is my favorite Zilla monster. you know she's won more battles than any of them?
look at taxslave's comment, particularly what's in bold. now ponder why a Mason would send his 20-something daughter who's living in Amerika that DVD.
'The Undefeated'?
Debbie Does Dallas?
speaking of oil...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QzH4KOf9Bs
Bail and Disengage from the US Government...
http://seenoevilspeaknoevilhearnoevil.blogspot.com/2011/07/bail-and-dise...
OT: Hilarious 2 Min Vid...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0Uju3tYS2s
when did we come out of the recession???
We wil never come out as long as they keep propping up the status quo. The bottom line is the system needs a reset and we need to have a hard currency that can't be artificially inflated through debt.
They will continue doing what they are doing so long as they think of your money as theirs to play with.
.
Take home thoughts:
1. The Fed is (still) a proxy and cloaking device for the squids.
2. ZH is the only realiable place with ample anti-bullshit goggles.
Much thanks.
Mark Levin was saying that we will start to cycle between inflation cycles and deflation cycles. It will not be evenly distributed across economies or industries but rather hodge-podge. Mark knows these things he's in touch with a lot of the big economic peoples.
http://www.marklevinshow.com
Also Rush was saying basically the same thing and lately my man Glenn Beck has been saying gold is the only place to go right now or you will get eviscerated in the other markets. I can't wait till we all go to Israel to see Glenn perform. Me and my wife and my 4 kids plan to really enjoy ourselves on our trip. It's remarkable how the Israeli people are embracing us for our trip. Wonderful.
Goldman does produce some excellent analysis for public consumption.
Hey gang. Thanks for the article. Looks like we'll be just fine.
.
--You WILL Obey!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTOcAt44_QA
Geology doesn't care about ideology.
Right or Left wing thinking has no impact on porosity and permeability.
A certain number of barrels of crude per day come out per day. No, not NGLs and light liquids from horizontal fracking. Crude. 5.8 million BTUs per barrel crude. The shale liquids have about 2.6 million BTUs per barrel, but EIA lumps them in for production stats, because they are pressured to provide good news.
There is none. Rush, Glenn Beck, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid . . . none of them matter.
You better take that back you little flee flicker!
.
--You WILL Obey!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTOcAt44_QA
shale oil produces a real EROI of <2. The kerogen we are trying to dig up...we need to wait a few million years for it to turn into real oil.
Glenn Beck said the Chinese are trying to buy more oil than us, the Americans. He said this was bad and I really agree with him. There are so many Chinese flying out of LaGuardia I think they are attempting to peak American oil with this trick of too much flying.
My supervisor said to make a few more go through the scanner, that'll fix 'em!
.
--You WILL Obey!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTOcAt44_QA
Factoid: U.S. oil production peaked in 1971.
Levin, Rush, Beck, and Goldman?
You just threw up on my shoes.
Even your username is subversive. I can't wait till you get audited. You WILL not talk about national heros like this, pukeboy!
.
--You WILL Obey!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTOcAt44_QA
Gold is good over the weekends to Monday Open as long you own it and control it. You get to set the price should you ever sell. Silver? Hah... that is just to trade to accumulate more Gold while the prices are cheap now.
This is great troll writing, but I suspect you're actually, deep down, a very mean-spritited person.
ONLY if you do not obey!
.
--You WILL Obey!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTOcAt44_QA
Reading that "FOMC 2003 Minutes" I can just picture them passing around a few joints with "Miracles" by Jefferson Starship playing in the background thinking that everything is going to be alright... Or mabe they're on Crank... and a similar ending coming.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbXIJK1V3AU
Lets all face reality in that we have entered an economic depression. Go back and read the history of the 1929 depression. This will help you understand what is happening, what's going to happen, and how to prepare for it. The second dip has already started. Just like the '29 depression the government told everyone after the first dip and before the second hit that everything was fine and the economy was recovering. This second dip will change attitudes towards the government and the government will respond exactly as it did in the '29 depression. The current population is the only variable in this current economic depression. This population is different than the one in '29. This could wildly change the ultimate outcome. The most visible example of why it really is different this time is the rise of the TEA Party. Never before has a group of people such as these entered the fray. They are raising hell in the republican party and can't be bought off. Most don't even care if they are re-elected. This is obvious with the relentless demand for a balanced budget amendment. This is like a cat begging to be given a tub bath in soapy water. Do not assume only the republicans are susceptible to an invasion and takeover by the TEA Party. This coming election will witness democrat TEA Party members in primary elections and they will win some if not most of them. Something else is different too and has very serious implications for the future of this 50 state nation. Secession has become an acceptable topic of discussion among the population of so called "Red" States. It's entirely possible that this second dip could very will lead to a break-up as happened with the collapse of the Soviet Union. It's not very hard to imagine watching Texas and the 13 Confederate States Secede once more declaring independence. One little known fact for these 14 States is they never officially rejoined the Union never surrendered to the North. Confederate Soldiers tired of the war walked away after a cease fire was signed. This allowed Union Solders to invade the South and take complete control. In any case very hard times are coming so you should be prepared and ready for anything, including the "impossibe".
"This coming election will witness democrat TEA Party members in primary elections and they will win some if not most of them."
Here's to hoping. As for the South rising again their surf is for shit and seasonal at best so let them walk. If it brings about an end to what we have now I support them (you).
Confederates were paroled at Appomattox with Grant and Lee. It was unprecedented in those days to even keep the horses and what they had so they can rebuild when they got home, if they had one.
A lot of my commerce spending this year and last is based in Texas. They have been quite good to us all this time being available with just about anything we wanted, needed or hunted for quickly.
Just thinking. Are you selling Texas Fire Extinguishers or bottled water? Last check, the state looks like hell.
If Texas is what's good about our economy. Let them leave. They like Mexican cheap labor anyway.
Nuclear devices from Gonzales, Ammunition from ATK via a distributor, Holsters; some made by hand, And a whole bunch of other stuff.
Texas may be dry, the occasional hurricane takes care of that when it gets big enough and survives long enough.
You may even see some of the mountain states join the fray on the side of the confederacy, places like WY, MT, and ID. They have had enough. Though it does not prove to be a contiguous block of states, it would force any action on the part of the feds to fight a two front war because let's face it, dc will overreach when secession becomes a reality, they will never say you are right go your separate way. However, the South, with ample manufacturing, lower costs of labor, and a population armed to the teeth compared to the north would fare much better this time around. In fact, I am very suprised that Southern Govs' haven't already told dc to fuck off. I think looking at the debt, the destruction of the Constitution, destruction of the currency, and other silly factors secession is only a matter of time. Living in The South for a time I realize that most Southerners never, ever accepted being a part of the union, and just consider that they/we lived in occupied territory. When it happens I hope to be positioned well in the Great State of Georgia!
In addition to the things you mention, the one critical thing we could not achieve in the 1860's would be swift I think- and that is foreign recognition as a sovereign nation. Given the speed with which the US recognized every splinter region in Eastern Europe and the former USSR, they would not only appear very hypocritical to dispute self determination but I think Putin would repay the favor swiftly and others would follow. There is no slavery now and no interest in it, with that out of the way its a very different ballgame.
All Southern States take more tax money from the federal government than they send. This has become a sore spot for Northeastern Liberals. Ask any of them what they think about the southern states leaving. 9 times out of 10 the answer is "Good Riddance". We take "their" money and don't vote the way they want us to. We've have been a burr under their saddle sense LBJ's Great Society. Our politicians with secessionist leanings realized that we could eventually bankrupt them and guess what? It's happened. They will celebrate the day Texas, the 13 Confederate States, and other right leaning States secede and stop sucking at their tits and disrupting their elections.
I'll be pushing for Wisconsin to position itself as "New Germany" if we balkanize. The Southern and Eastern parts of the state can stick with Illinois, but the wilder outstate areas have ample food, guns and manufacturing, along with a heavily German and Scandinavian population. (Not to be racist, but let's face it- when you put Germans, Swedes and Norwegians together, you get picturesque streets, low crime, a clean environment and industry- that can't be said of all other ethnicities.)
Don't worry, we'll still be here to help- for a price. Like to see the Dakotas, Iowa and outstate Minnesota join in, too.
And I think the Southern states would be a fine trading partner- no need for hostilities there. Maybe the real answer is to cut it into thirds, with the right and left coasts isolated from the productive center of the nation.
If memory serves, east of Salt Lake City was the site where two Union Forces fought a force of Rebels and defeated them that was not long before the real war started.
I don't care much at all for the Mormons, however you gotta hand it to them for being free and prepared.
Google 100 things to disappear first and see for your self.
I hear the Mormons like gold, beans and guns about as well as we -- if any are here, you could probably tell them by their usual politeness. But you know who really wins? The Amish -- they won't even notice if we collapse. They already don't use oil, electricity and so on. They also believe in having stashed food and so on. Non violent, but that may serve them well too. No one will bother stealing from them, they aren't that rich, and aren't always so easy to even find...
And I hope to be established in Alabama by then myself.
I live in SC, but have thought about moving my family to GA if the SHTF.
I'll see you there, GO DAWGS!
Meh. The Tea Party appears to be spinning there wheels. What is the problem that the economy is facing? The Federal Reserve Banking system is a private cartel who is ruining monetary policy because the are using a fiat standard. The fiat ponzi is dictating the demise of the economy as a whole.
Where is the Tea Party on this issue? Were they not founded on ending the Fed? What happened to that? It appears your Tea Party has lost its way.
.
One thing at a time.
Right now, it's enough to stop the squid money pump by restricting government debt and deficits and changing the debate in America. Done and done.
The unofficial national referendum for socialism in the USA is now officially over and socialism lost. The liberal dems are toast and are now just trying to land butter-side up for 2012 by with a fighting retreat, conceding that fiscal restraint is needed, even if it's fake.
Next up, win those elections and the WH in 2012. That's looking more likely and then there will be fewer impediments to more self government.
The clear message has exploded upon average Americans that government spending is the national existential threat of our generation. There's no going back from that now for the next 20 years. It's no longer about transforming America, it's about survival for America, and that message is now getting through to the masses everyday, loud and clear.
IMHO, Obama made a big strategic mistake by escalating the debate to "economic armageddon" levels. Obama's picture is already on the Wheaties Box as the all time government spending champion. By raising the stakes in the debt ceiling he has tied his massive spending to potential national calamity and made himself the poster boy of the "D" word --- USA "Default". Voters will want to dump him on that visceral level alone.
We're now no longer asking how much we must spend to transform America, we're asking how much we need to cut to keep what we have. That's a huge win for the TP to be able to change the national debate in America.
I am doing one thing at a time! You post drivel. Who the fuck cares about politics other than the politicians. You? You care? You care to care about the political theatre? How about we end the Fed? Do that and we do not need any of your quid pro quo politiking.
You want to continue the fiat ponzi. You want to cut spending to those who need it. You are not facing the problems. The problem is that America is controlled by a fascist government run by Major Corporations. You diddle daddle around the crux of the problem while the financial system burns its way into a New World Order.
The Tea Party cares not for it's Political Career. If you have a Tea Partier in the seat, that person will vote one way and one way only and all the wheeling, dealing, back rubbing and favors don't matter as the Old Gaurd used to do things in DC.
I'll believe it when I see it. SO far I have not seen them achieve, or even try to achieve, anything. They are trying to get rid of helping the working people of this country and are ignoring what got us into this mess. The mess was started when corporations were deemed "persons". Corporations aren't people! That is the stupidest shit ever. The Tea Party is as helpless to solve the problems as any beuracracy, and the faith put into them is on par with the faith the Dems put into Obama. Hope and change! Go Tea Party, go! Rah, rah, rah! Its sickening that people fail to see they are falling into the same train of thought that bought the Dems their gulag.
I could care less about the debt debate. The problem is not how much to raise the debt by, the problem is the debt itself, and how it was accumulated. The Fed ripped off America on purpose. The Fed is a group of treasonaires.
All that we need to do, is burn the Fed down to the ground. PROBLEM SOLVED.
I learned long ago that burning down a symbol of the status quo just means they build another and charge you double. We only could vote in a certain number of TP people this time, next time it might be enough to do more than block a few things and generally make trouble for them. But in general, I'd have to agree that faith in politicians is a waste of time. They all get corrupted, and a coupld have told me in private that they couldn't function without the help of the lobbyists(!) -- too much to read and write themselves.
There's only one guy you could vote for who wants to end the fed and plenty of people think he's a nutcase -- Ron Paul. I'd like to find out, myself. As you say, who gets that seat is really just a front for whoever really has the power....name your tinfoil hat conspiracy _________.
Vote out all incumbents every...single...time. The message was missed this time (maybe deliberately). We didn't toss out dems last time because we liked the pubs, we just had no other choice, and the pubs called it a mandate. Nope, we hate you just as much -- get it done or get out too.
The TP of course is fighting being co-opted by other powers. Seems they may not win that fight, those other powers have well, power. But it's no reason to just give up and merely whine either. Do something!
JJ, dave thinks you might get your wish and your worst fears all in one fell swoop. he makes a compelling case here:
http://tradewithdave.com/?p=7173
Right on all points and they've already got their own "currency" out in Utah. And if you've ever spent any time in Texas, boy, would they ever LUV to succeed right along with the rest of the South. Our country was NOT founded on the basis that a federal government would entangle itself into every aspect of our lives; though plenty of government workers today line their pockets doing just that. Our present constitution has been pimped to pieces; we need a new one.
Im not sure about the Dem Tea party, but it is indeed true that many in the South are getting ever closer to an 1861 mind set. It wasnt coincidence that the big block that held tough on the vote yesterday was the SC group. Resistance to the Federal government is still considered an an honorable tradition here, and two towns in my county still fly the battle flag on the confederate memorials. The SCV chapter I belong to is growing at a healthy rate, and rebel flags are common vehicles and clothing among the general population (except for all the bleepin New England and Ohio types infesting the area now, but thats a different issue).
A collective "Fuck all y'all" may very well be on the horizon. I think Johnny Reb is waking from a long slumber and beginning to dream again.
+1861
America will eventually have to lessen DCs grip or else face balkanizaiton where a state like NJ is fine with SC leaving and vice versa.
We are already close
Yeah, but not close enough. A few more unfunded mandates might help things along quicker....
There used to be a time in history that humans were considered assets for their productive valuation, now not so much. So what is the think tank grand scenario for the end game?
Bad news I'm afraid, an increasing population of useless eaters is a threat to the dwindling resources available to the oligarchy.
Live, laugh, love - time may be short.
When the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem starts to look like a nail.
Saw that somewhere recently, and it seems fitting.
I thought it was bullet holes in the roof and walls.
When it rains it's too wet to work and when the sun is out the cool draft is nice and no need to fix leaks.
Just accumulate a supply of Foleys for your own leaking in your old age someday.
when the only tool you have is a helicopter, all the humans down below look like little ants and it doesn't seem too wrong to kill an innocent few here & there when dropping paper bombs.
Transitorysoftpatchystagrecessionflation Nation.
<---2009 - 2011 I went for it early and made it big
<---I thought TEOTWAWKI was going to happen, I missed it.
I still don't get all the gloom talk.
Ben Bernanke will go down in history as the greatest central banker of all time.
Who else has been able to:
Sky the S & P 500 by 100% in 2 years with 9.5% unemployment and GDP in the 1% - 2% range?
And at the same time rack up trillions of debt yet cajole our willing debt enablers to wolf down so many bonds, interest rates have crashed to 45-year lows?
And bonds have been a 100% risk-free investment, enjoying a 35-year uninterrupted run, despite U.S. Debt rocketing up 1400%!!!
And any and all inflation can be whipped with a series of margin hikes, prohibitions, paper shorting, and unexpected leaks out of the SPR. To the point where the 30-year bond is only yielding a palty 4.3% and mortgage interest rates are at record lows, reflecting no inflation expectations whatsoever.
This period of time under Bernanke's leadership will be studied in economics textbooks for the next 50 years as the greatest economic miracle of all time.
And the March 2009 lows will prove to be a once in a generation opportunity to accumulate unreal wealth in less than 3 years, and retire in 8 years. Investors 30 years from now will look back at runs in stocks like AAPL, LULU, BIDU, NFLX from single digits in 2003 to astounding prices in 2011 with their jaws agape.
In fact, many people who have accumulated vast wealth can sell now, buy some bonds and some gold, and will be set for the rest of their lives.
Agent Provocateur par excellance.
You give him too much credit.
robo: unless you keep your earnings from this miracle s&p rally on your mattress, you haven't earned a dime. When the banking system implodes, all your ficticious earnings will evaporate. The few pieces of paper with portraits of dead presidents you might have in your dallas cowboys velcro wallet will become a sad reminder of the sheer stupidity and gullibility of your serf caste.
He broadcast his moves all along for all to see.
Why not give him some credit for making the correct call(s)?
He called the bull market and some excelent individual stock picks along over the last two years in the midst of a whole lot of attack from ZH's.
Just saying he deserves some credit .
Who else has been able to:
Sky the S & P 500 by 100% in 2 years with 9.5% unemployment and GDP in the 1% - 2% range?
Nice, but I think he can do much better. I'm looking for the S&P 500 up 150% in 3 years with 12% unemployment and GDP in the -1% - -2% range.
I do. Not a Robo hater, myself- with the right perspective, I would have loved to capture the irrational rise over the last three years, and be socking the gains away in PMs and food now.
Then again, if I would have tried that, RT and I would both be eating canned beans under an overpass right now. Luck just doesn't flow that direction for me, gotta plan on fundimentals.
Perhaps, but our world is not limited to Robots and Vinegars. Congratulations on your meteoric rise I hope you do something constructive with your dough.
You forgot spreading freedom and liberty throughout the world by toppling middle east dictators. He expertly abused, er used the reserve currency status to export inflation and caused basic food and staples to be unaffordable... thereby triggering peaceful revolutions with no life lost.... oh wait....
Bernie is no magician. He can do what he does soley because he can slap the petrodollar around without it busting, thanks to its reserve status. But even he is approaching the limit.
Gotta luv wndysrf -- LOL. Still riding around the south coast taking pictures of failed construction sites? I clicked the green arrow cuz you truly are PRICELESS.
I normally find Robo amusing but this:
And the March 2009 lows will prove to be a once in a generation opportunity to accumulate unreal wealth in less than 3 years, and retire in 8 years
is a little much. Let's just run the numbers. From the 2009 lows, the S&P has basically doubled. Let's say you were in the top 1-2% in terms of having liquid assets and invested $100K in an S&P index fund at the low. Well, now you have $200K. Nice, but not exactly "unreal wealth". Now, let's say you were prescient enough to invest in a company that went up by a factor of 20. Well, now you have $2M. That sounds really good, but still not Croesus-type money and you'll lose around 20% of it to captial gains tax.
And with the loss of the dollar moving from DXY 88 to 73 means you lost 13% there alone.
Heard of leverage? Robo hasn't said.
+++
Where was the President's Working Group on Financial Markets when the economy collapsed starting with the housing market in '05 and all the way into the spring of '09? BEN SHALOM BERNANKE CRASHED THE MARKETS ON PURPOSE TO BE ABLE TO GIVE THE WEALTH OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA OVER TO THE PRIVATE BANKING SYSTEM AND THE MAJOR CORPORATIONS IT SUPPORTS!
then tell the board why your job search is fruitless the result being you are reconciled to working part time as a contract 1099 processor resorting to eating big macs and drinking cheap juice. fact is you don't even believe your own words. you're being provocative because you're bored with life and so broke you have nothing better to do than get your jollies by stirring up the fine folks at zh with off the wall, absurd commentary, taking every chance to smear successful men like jim sinclair.
Hell yeah! ....and it only cost us 3+ trillion.
Hail Caesar
I don't understand why I keep reading about 'sliding back to recession'? At WHAT POINT are we in a recession? When the Obama supporters finally give in and say we are? What chart - of the oh, several hundred different examples showing the country spiraling dow the toilet - what chart will be the one that FINALLY says we're in this 'recession'? I can't see how we haven't entered the Second Great Depression.
Spot on. When will this government respect the people enough to call this mess what it is: the Second Depression.
Yep. But, it has been a depression since 2009. It has just been papered over 3 or 4 trillion times.
QE 3 will set Asia on fire.
I know. I live in Asia.
You should see how high the price of oil and pork went up after QEbe 2.
QE 3 would almost be like a military operation.
http://geraldcelente.proboards.com
.
I was surprised to see Vietnam running 22% inflation. Where are you?
South Korea.
The government claims inflation is less than five percent.
But I'm paying nearly 8 dollars for a gallon of gas. And the price of meat is about to turn me into a vegetarian.
http://geraldcelente.proboards.com
That sucks- allow me to apologise for that on behalf of those who did *not* vote for the anointed one. (I wrote in Ron Paul last time, myself.)
If it makes you feel any better, though I suspect it will not, they're telling us that inflation is under 2%, while all of my groceries have doubled in the past 6 months. Ultimately, it'll all wash back to the US- Asia doesn't actually have to take our paper.
"A recent survey showed that 72% of economic forecasters expect the balance sheet to start shrinking later this year or in the first half of 20124."
The latter estimate will be closest in my opinion.
"A recent survey showed that 72% of economic forecasters expect the balance sheet to start shrinking later this year or in the first half of 20124."
I almost pissed myself lauging when I read that.
What will they do? why, they'll wage more war for sure ! I used to fear the coming collapse, now I welcome it. We've been bamboozled & scammed for years, the average person doesn't have a clue, but, they will someday. Here's what I'm listening to today. The Honorable Ramsey Clark, you can tell that he's getting older & his voice is fading; who will replace his voice in opposition to the military-industrial complex ? luv Ramsey Clark, disgusted by the people we elected to represent us :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qddf_ba6d_w&sns=em
good day to all, enjoy a beautiful summer day !
the average person will never have a clue- that's one of the things that makes them average
There is not going to be any collapse. America is still the number one country and Israel is number 2 and prepared to help us if we need it.
What makes the US powerful? The military? How will we power the military if we have no oil? You think we will secure it? The US loses wars. That's what it does. It loses wars.
The US has the power of the printing press, and nothing more. If the US did not control the world's reserve currencie, it would be the least powerful nation in the world.
Cut the dollar, cut the oil. Cut the oil, cut the way of life for America. And the relationship is inverse, too. Raise the oil price, the dollar turns to ashe (because it has no intrinsic value anyway). Then America is locked out from reality, ignorantly stuck in the suburbs.
Don't forget that we can't even equip that military without Chinese industry. We've been p0wned.
Kudos to the new Hamy.
Wow. Reads way better than your sisters' diary. Odjective #1 is clearly: Spew disinformation as widely as possible to achieve any and all desired outcomes. Gotta keep those paychecks going out to the folks constantly revising the phoney figures.
The Fed can just tell congress to re-consider FRB Reg D and cut the reserve requirement from 10% to 0% and leverage deposits to infinity. It's already 0% on non checkable deposits and UST holdings, so you might as well go full monty on it. Once this implodes and there is a run on banks, declare a "banking holiday". Or do what they're already doing--make it very difficult to withdraw any cash over $3,000--you know because of terrorism and stuff.
Somebody should reveal the truth to the patient.
Sorry USA, your economy has particularly virulent form of HIV/AIDS.
The blood stream is flooded with Banksters, corrupt regulators and politicians which is destroying the natural immune system. There is no cure for this strain except to wait for the patient to die.
Please do not have uprotected congress with banksters.
uprotected congress with banksters!!
Funny, thanks.
You may want to reveiw this.. FYI
Finance as the Humpty Dumpty of Academia
by Steve Keen on July 21st, 2011at 10:00 am
Thank you for the link. Most excellant.
It sure does not take long for Tyler's work to be republished (without attribution)
http://stocksthatpay.com/?p=18728
correction (that site might as well be Zero Hedge it appears to have every article Tyler ever wrote published in full on it)
Yep. It was published in 2003. The Central Planners are shitting themselves silly. LOL.
carlos ferreira
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Domain servers in listed order:
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Dumber & dumber - unless Tyler is dumping the intel hounds on this one for a reason... Lulzsec did it to the poor Topiary patsy, I wonder...
There are dozens of mirror sites/blogs out there, have been ever since ZH went 'commercial grade' in 2009. I can't imagine Sacrilege and the rest of the crew not being aware. I have always looked on it as a redundancy/failsafe mechanism in case the central servers are taken out, as well as an extended web/dragnet for clicks (some of the sites actually link back to ZH -- though this particular one does not, and actually replaced all self-referential links in the articles as well).
We never did come out of the 'recession', but the fed made it 'appear' as though we did. However, it was all fluff and surface and none of it was organic. All they did was create what are traditionally the visable effects of a recovery without any recovery of underlying economy...in fact while they were creating what appeared to be a recovery the real economy, shrouded by those effects, was actually getting (and continues to get) worse.
In essence they have been trying to fool consumers and businesses into believing that we were in recovery. That continues to be the playbook of the Fed et al.
I continue to believe that they're attempting to now support an ecomonic level (pre-'09) that was never real, that was nothing more than a credit induced boom that was doomed to fail eventually. We're witnessing a reversion of everything back to levels consistent with past (pre-boom) growth. TD has talked about it before as 'mean reversion', and I completely agree.
Housing will fall back in line with cpi, which it followed for decades before 2001, and probably below it for a while. Consumer spending will revert and savings rates (should) come back to historical levels as people try and correct for past bad habits.
Delfation Depression
S&P500 monthly chart shows a series of broadening patterns - aka megaphone wedges.
The three broadening formations reveal an unstable market where buyers and sellers battle for control...
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Whats going to happen when the government exchanges your $20 fiat for a new amero $1.00, and gold is $300 in new dollars???
That is the stupidiest comment I have ever read.
If gold was $300/oz lots of people would buy it and would run the price to $2500/oz.
Don't post stupid comments. YOU have been warned.
.
--You WILL Obey!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTOcAt44_QA
Gold's price is linked to money supply. As the fed expands the money supply, gold will rise in price reflecting the devaluation of the expanded paper supply currency.
From what I've read, the Fed's rolling over maturing MBS into Treasuries is monetary expansion since buying a Treasury is injecting "Hi Powered Money" into circulation since as the money moves along the "food chain" it is multiplied and expanded even momre by banks thru loans, etc.
So the way I understand it, is that even if the Fed does not expand the balance sheet, the money supply is expanded by their switching to Treasuries. Gold should continue rising to reflect this.
Any other thoughts?....Commets?....Explanations?
I thought the Amero bullshit had finally died away, but apparently not. According to Amero proponents, somehow changing the name of the dollar and maybe the picture on it will make a difference to anyone.
Everything is electronic.
All else is physical metal.
Ameros will not be deployed, we need to keep the sheep asleep in American Idol and Dog shows.
QE3CARDMONTEFLATION
That would be a great Flash game.
ZH Gang, just be careful for what you wish for. IMF carpet muncher wants to continue fear to expand power. You first have to remove the middleman, then ignore the new international grifters. winks.
Bobo likes oranges, Michelle Obama claims there healthy.
Grifters
Seems that global economic financial institutional secrecy can only be exposed by those whistle blowers within the cabal.
Does Dodd Frank financial regulations mandate secrecy to protect this global economic network.? God help us if it does!
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/29/business/in-lehman-case-a-hint-that-au...
Tyler, Did you see that nonsense penned by that idiot Joey LaVorgna... “Growth recession” is a term that means the economy actually is growing but not at a fast enough pace to head off rising unemployment, which is at 9.2 percent and trending higher.
The term was unleashed Friday by Deutsche Bank economist Joseph LaVorgna, who said the government’s latest reading on the economy showing just a 1.3 percent gain in gross domestic product in the second quarter is ominous in more ways than one.
“The disappointing Q2 GDP results and downward revisions to the prior three quarters lead us to believe that this (growth recession) indeed is the case,” LaVorgna wrote in an analysis.
Seriously, how much does this guy get paid?
Hey anybody, how do I make donations now that I cancelled my PayPal account? I also disputed a charge w/ my bank that apparently never reached its intended recipient, a mistake witch I will correct.
I clicked on the 'donate' link, above, and tried to add $50.00, but when I clicked update it doesn't seem be working since the change-over to the new site (which is cool btw)
from Goldman's lips
Finally, as we argued in a recent article, calls for cutting the IOER rate are partly motivated by the premise that banks are holding excess reserves because of an unwillingness to lend. In fact, the level of reserves is controlled entirely by the size and composition of the Fed’s balance sheet, and says nothing about banks’ incentives or their willingness to lend.
Goon squad working down the list of a thousand members of "anonymous". If you are going to do things like this, then shouldn't you take the precautions to not have your own IP address mixed up in this? Just sayin......
http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2011/07/op_payback/
they stepped on their collective male members when they went after paypal.....
geez excuse hell out of me for thinking its a free country; what do I look like to you- a criminal?
Get off yer high horse, or walk the plank!
Excellent post except that anyone who looks to the Fed Central Bank for the answers is just. wasting. their. time.
There is only so much manipulation they can do. The problems have gotten too big. The economic problems require a big picture solution and a return to capitalism.
So here we have an interview with Ron Paul by Judy Woodruff. Quite enlightening. His economic policies are flawless. Most of you already know that. After he has full command of the issues, even the "weak on military" accusation, when he says he raised more money from ACTIVE troops than all the other candidates COMBINED; she plays the "you're too old" card. Haha. Not. getting. away. with. that. one. sweetie.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQNpXm7h7aA
best interview i heard him give so far. one that could win hearts & minds of those not yet there yet. he's gettin the wise grandpa thing down good. gotta spread this one.
if he were successful in getting the bring troops home message out worldwide, i'd bet a gold ounce, that he would beat Uncle O in a global poll. yes, that's right, an ounce of glod. American Buffalo 24-K.
A Golden Handshake Could Stall Default: The Ticker @ Bloomberg ..... desperate times call for .....
<<<--- Believe Turd Ferguson and keep stacking the phyzz to prepare for the end?
<<<--- Believe Uncle Benny will save the day and keep ponziing like it's 1999?
Vote for your choice! I'll keep stacking and following the Turd!
Now, now all. There is no problem here. Just give The Bernank 15 minutes and poof, inflation is gone. Easy fix. And the economy starts rolling along. Market forces are irrelevant when it comes to King Fed.
Longtime ZHers know I made my call on this since the end of 09. It's Biflation.
I'm getting tired of elaborating why. But just think about this: one reason economic policy has been so impotent at helping to put the economy back on track (trillions of QE with nothing to show for it) is because the most brilliant minds can't answer the most simple and fundamental question of economics: do we have inflation or don't we? Every few days someone advances yet another grand response that gets knocked off it's perch as new data gets released.
Without a clear understanding of this issue, there won't be any solutions forthcoming from the Fed or DC. Worse, there is a large chance of inappropriate and dangerous responses that make the situation far worse, that will turn out to be grave mistakes when viewed retrospectively.
Gold is the only working solution if you've got money to protect. As I've been saying. And the problems it addresses stretch on for as far as the eye can see. Cows and sheep will help you if you have the skills and resources for them. For the rest of us, its gold.
biflation is double penetration without consent. So be prepared to fight its consequences.
If they can afford land, cows, and equip to provide grassland for the animals to survive, they have enough money for gold.
My suspicion is that these guys that talk about owning cows don't know anything about cattle. If they are feeding it bought hay and grain (no land to raise the animals on) what are they going to do in the post-apocalypse when no-one will sell them shit to feed the cows? You think some guy growing grass is going to trade it for manure from your anemic, wormy cow? Do you think a cow in the green field is going to last long when Mad Max and his posse shows up in your town? (PS I can sell you some cow-mo-flage, just send me your email)
Also, what about these guys that say they are OK because they have a can of seeds in the pantry to raise their own food? It takes 55 days to get most of the "fast" vegetables to the table. Do they expect to sprinkle seeds in their lawns with no soil-prep, no experience with horticulture, no knowledge of local pests, plant diseases, etc. And get a crop they can survive on? No way! What if a drought hits and the water ain't working?
These dumb bastards better start buying gold!
What will dead head fed do? You ask but it's already a precedent throughout history. Nations with a fiat currency, as is the USDinker dollar, all printed them until the paper money was worthless. Nothing but grease monkeys strokin banana republic chains, in a giant circle jerking to zeroooooooooooooo worth on the USDinker dollar. It will sweep the nation coast to roast as a theif in the night. Key is don't be a bag holder of worthless paper money or any of the debt/bonds associated with it. It's called the end game when the worlds illusion reserve currency gives it up to the real global reserve currency; gold. It's just not 100% self evident to the masses but will be to many a fools financial destruction, by bankster gangster fraudsters, who always get the gold and the people the shaft.
The ONLY thing I ever heard Hatzius say that was accurate was that the realestate market would not recover until employment recovers ...and he said that will take at least 8 to 9 years.
Some RE expert from DB was interviewed the same time as Hatzius and he agreed RE would not stop dropping for about 9 years since the jobs situation would not recover until then...if ever.
This is the sad but truer story which I never heard them say again after that interview....I guess The Head Muppets told them to lock up thier lips.......and say nothing, nada, zilch, nicht against the "everything is fine" spin.
You might not be able to eat IPads, but you can eat IPhones, if you want to.
Proudly presented by Japanese bakery Green Gables:
http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/01282/iphone_BM_Bayern_A_1282853p.jpg
http://www.chris-floyd.com/component/content/article/1-latest-news/2153-...
when amerika sneezes the surrogate world economies, who have benefitted from the outsourcing scream, catch a cold!
Ori is saying it loud n clear.
Welcome to Peak "ism" where every political economic philosophy is chucked out the window to make room for Zombieism
You want to stimulate the economy, the following action should have been done before Tarp or any other bullshit action that has looted the american people.
VERY SIMPLE:
A TAX HOLIDAY FOR ALL WORKERS AND BUSINESSES, AND CUT OUT THE BANKSTERS. THIS ONE ACTION WILL SOLVE THE PROBLEMS.
Down with the bankers !
one of these qe n+1 will be a consumer debt forgiveness package that could include anything from tax credits to outright paydowns and cash awards when the fed realizes the only way the economy will grow again is making more room in consumer incomes to borrow again. the inflation will be exported to the emerging economies accellerating the convergence of living standards necessary for a one world economy. as the convergence nears the usa economy will begin to bring outsourced jobs back home. the only other way is to nuke china. that would be quicker and would put off the human population saturation issue for a few more years.
I thought this would happen a year ago but America, the clusterfuck Nation it is, has the orginization skills of a group of caged monkeys.
+1 fuckin' lawyers (tm)
To start with the Fed has been marginilized, so "What the Fed will do" is increasingly irrelevant when compared with what the IMF's ESFS and the U.S. Exchange Stabilization Fund will do.
http://tradewithdave.com/?p=7173
Secondly, as far as the debate of gold as money is concerned, in the newly proposed "divorced" currency system you get your gold and your efficient means of exchange in one sandwiched currency. Countries like Greece even get to return to their own novelty sovereign currency for looks. This is the new occidental currency merger of the west.
http://tradewithdave.com/?p=7514
http://tradewithdave.com/?p=5310
Dave Harrison
www.tradewithdave.com
just got done reading 1/2 dozen of your posts, dave. they really filled in the blanks. all the bluster & histrionics begin to make sense now. you'll get your gold but you won't be able to touch it, except with a debit card.
ha! talk about a mindfuck...
I agree with you, and I guess Dave, that that is the plan, but they ain't never getting my monie!