US Equity Markets Remain Odd Bull Out

Tyler Durden's picture

The ongoing squeeze in US equities, evident in the significant outperformance of the most-shorted-name indices from Goldman relative to market indices, continues to keep domestic wealth effects ticking along nicely while US credit and European equity and credit markets do not seem to have got the same memo. While this rally, seemingly predicated on the fact that Europe 'get's it' finally (and admittedly some talking head chatter about the number of earnings beats - which we argue is useless given previous discussions of the wholesale downgrading of expectations heading into earnings), the US equity market is the only market to have made new highs this week, is outperforming its credit peers in the US (which is simply ignorant given HY's relative cheapness if this was a risk-on buying spree), and most wonderfully - is hugely outperforming the European financials, European sovereigns, European IG and HY credit, and European equities. Did US equities become the new safe-haven play of the world? Perhaps this week, but we suspect that won't end well - at least from the experience of the last decade or so.

US equities managed to make new highs today (taking out Monday's highs) while US credit remains well of those tights and has dramatically lagged this last burst higher in US equities over the course of this morning.

While the region that should be all ponies and unicorns is notably lagging from Monday's highs - especially Senior financials (recap size not enough?).

On a broader basis, US equities look ahead of themselves relative to a global risk basket. CONTEXT has been sideways all day while ES squeezes higher. We seemed to have switched to risk leading ES regime this week and while ES is outperforming, post-European close, we will see if the EUR strength continues (driven by more repatriation we suspect given PrimeX's consistent drops - although today's move higher is surprising).

So what exactly is it that US equities are overjoyed about? It seems the austerity of Europe will still be there (perhaps worse), the potential for highly dilutive recaps remains potentially troublesome for US exposures (net and gross), cost of funds for new sovereign debt may be improved (EFSF) but without ongoing ECB buying legacy debt will drag MtM exposure down for everyone and the fact that CDS are becoming marginalized as effective tools by the unintended-consequence crowd perhaps means that all that 'net' zero exposure that US banks so proudly tell us all about will come unhinged (just wait for FASB or IASB to amend 157 or 23 for rules on sovereign risk hedges?).


For now, it seems US equities are the odd one out - living in a beating lowered expectations, de-re-de-coupled world of their own.

Charts: Bloomberg

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vast-dom's picture

Clearly all of this is BULLISH. How the fuck are markets up? Please God, Santa and Tooth Fairy pray tell!


US equities overjoyed about one thing and one thing only: HOPIUM. And let's just not forget that one of the many components of said hopium is boundless psychotic joy!

caerus's picture

spy volume has been consistently greater on each of the down moves since the beginning of august...each "rally" has been on relatively weak volume...unless we get a big rally on significant volume through resistance at the neckline around at least es 1233 (which goes back to 3/17) it's all bullshit imho

Andy_Jackson_Jihad's picture

Money fleeing the debt of inept entities?  When the defaults eventually start, I expect stocks to moon-launch along with PMs.  Think of the size of the debt markets vs. the size of real assets (commodities and shares of companies that actually make shit people want).


nope, just squeezing money. plain and simple.

maxw3st's picture

What goes up....

LawsofPhysics's picture

...can go up forever when backed by an eCONomist with a printing press or computer.  Expect new method for calculating the CPI in 3...2...1...

jdelano's picture

Have you looked at a ten year chart lately?

Manthong's picture

Gee, I wonder where the hyperinflation will evidence itself first?

jdelano's picture

there are two kinds of getting junked.  The bad kind, where you know you made a lousy joke or said something stupid.  Then there's the good kind, where you know you got junked because your rapier hit bone...

Andy_Jackson_Jihad's picture

"your rapier hit bone..." 

I'm stealing that line......err...bailing you out of it.

Manthong's picture

For the record, it wasn't me that did the junking, but regardless, there's a lot of inertia in oil and the demand can get whacked big time, mitigating a price rise.

There's only so much gas you can accumulate and you won't need that much when you don't have to drive to work anymore.

The market, though can go up or down in huge amounts in a nanosecond, as has been demonstrated on this site numerous times.

+1  on the double entendres..

adr's picture

and this is surprising how? US equity markets have always been the bastion for stupidity.

We've been playing the green shoots seen through the Kepler array for three years now. We've documented the lowering of earnings expectations by 15% or more the week before the reports are due time and time again. The beating of lowered expectations by one penny causing a 5% upsurge in said stock isn't even news anymore. 

The propaganda machine that is Wall Street press claims that banks blew out earnings even though it was all based on accounting tricks.

Cheating isn't even a crime anymore as long as you don't cheat the chief cheater.

scatterbrains's picture

Would luv to see a chart visualization of  the  expectation dip/beat vs. equities. Do you have a link maybe?

YesWeKahn's picture

Today's best performing groups: REITs, Financials, energy, etc.

EL INDIO's picture

A light bulb shines strongly just before it burns out and plunges the users in darkness !

spartan117's picture

Tonight, I will eat at Chipotle's, while using my iPhone 4S to purchase goodies through Amazon.  USA! USA!

SeverinSlade's picture

You then have to use your iPhone 4S to launch a drone strike on a US citizen.  Giving money to a drug dealer (NTC aka Al-CIA-eda( and ordering him to kill another drug dealer (Gadhafi) would make you a true American too.

Andy_Jackson_Jihad's picture

videotape the explosive diarrhea afterward and you've got your own presidential speach. 

SeverinSlade's picture

Just when you think the market can't possibly get any dumber, it surprises you by going full retard.

The prize of Wall Street, Apple Inc., missed expectations...When Apple begins missing, you know there's a problem.

How ironic.  Wall Street is dominated by HFT algos yet fails to understand how basic math proves that Europe is doomed.

junkyardjack's picture

All the banks are up on losses.  The market doesn't care what your business is, its the greater fool theory now

buzzsaw99's picture

the bernank has one mandate, BTFD.

FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

It's fascism, pure and simple. What did you think Fascism looked like? Black and white grainy photos of ugly people like you see in history books?

nyse's picture

What did you think Fascism looked like? Black and white grainy photos of ugly people like you see in history books?

+1 Awesome Points

SheepDog-One's picture

No doubt, and people think it will all just 'get better' later? And in the meantime, 'trade it'? 

LOL theyll all be killed soon.

TradingJoe's picture

Bueno, uno mas:

1. Options Expiration

2. (Early) Month End "Bonus" Rally


PS Low Volume It is!

EL INDIO's picture

Your third point is no good.

Participating in this ridiculous charade is what keeps it going.

StychoKiller's picture

When one of the playas pulls out a shiv and stabs another right in front of the Referee and doesn't get carded, it's time to bench yourself!

YesWeKahn's picture

Love to know who is driving this rally. They can't be all this stupid.

EL INDIO's picture

It’s a fat man whose job is to set the daily levels for the stock market.

Instead of increasing the sound volume on his computer to listen to Lady Kaka he accidentally increased the EURO/USD level with his fat finger.

earleflorida's picture

only the unhealthy floats - the good shit  goes right to the bottom?

oddjob's picture

Even Robo's Netflix is up today. Hopefully for his sake it gets back to the 50x book he paid for it.

unionbroker's picture

no matter how much we may not like it there is a large percentage of the financial community that only wants equities to trade higher no matter what and no amount of whining and complaining will prevent them from doing just that. As long as they have the credit and the margin they can pay as much as they want .All we can do is stay out of the way.

jdelano's picture

then why did they bug out and screw themselves in august in the first place?  I'm not buying it.  Sticking to my shorts.  This is a desperate all-in attempt and if it blows, it's gonna blow huge.  I'll take them odds over the potential 2% upside to be had going long from here.  

chancee's picture

Ramp the futures in pre-market - check.  Spend the past 48 hours giving a thousand different reasons on CNBC why FCX(copper) should be higher - check.  Another thousand reasons why Intel and Microsoft are such great buys here (since Apple tanked, gotta keep the tech story going) - check.  Fed's plant, Hilsenrath, writes timely story in WSJ about QE3 on the way - check. 

Desperate, desperate attempt to keep the market hanging like a stuck pig at these nose-bleed levels in hopes news of Euro bailout next week will force a year end rally and save a million money managers across Wall Street.

Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Liquidity doth cometh, the markets do rise

It's a risk on and off thing in the face of true lies

The stars up above the inferno below

As we break up and out how much further to go?

To the moon say the bankers!

To the sun says Bernank!

You can take what I say all the way to the bank.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

So what exactly is it that US equities are overjoyed about?

the PPT likes ponies and unicorns?  RainbowLandPicture2.jpgrainbow4slewie

Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Mix into your image Dennis Hopper, an eight ball and some h--kers at a PPT strategy session and yes, equities are on the rockestship.

Pure Evil's picture

So is rainbow4slewi's bush the same color as her coiffure.

Enquiring minds want to know.



slewie the pi-rat's picture

my, what a horny old devil you are!

at the risk of disappointing, the carpet does not match the drapes, b/c there is no carpet, BiCheZ!!!

fuu's picture

Helloooooooooooo nurse!

I demand rainbow4fuu.

Lady Heather...UNCLE's picture

hey...put a flier in a couple of days ago...1234.56 on S& done. Nice number

Comrade de Chaos's picture

Market is somewhat irrational lately. However, it is to be expected because that what high degree of the Central Planning does. Markets stop being a tool that reflects and directs any meaningful information, hence all long time planning is somewhat futile.

Not calling for anyone to be bearish, however if you are uberbullish just wait untill we have our own debt crysis circa EU. 

And yes, one day this 'war' shell end. 

anony's picture

Buy the goddamned motherfucking dip!..

That one little morsel of market wisdom would have made everyone wealthy as Midas if followed religiously.