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US Export Orders Are Collapsing
Presented with little comment, courtesy of Diapason Commodities' Sean Corrigan, NAPM Export Orders have plunged over 3 sigma in the last 3 months and have only dropped more (in history) immediately after the Lehman debacle. Decoupling anyone?
Chart: Bloomberg and Diapason Commodities
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Unpossible. Benron et al have things firmly in control. /sarc
The Global economy is getting ready for a hard hard landing.
http://ericsprott.blogspot.ca/
"...at seven p.m. a main hatchway gave in. He said, 'fellas, it's been good to know ya.'"
- Gordon Lightfoot, The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald
Ben the reluctant girlfriend has been holding out for ages now with sweet whispered promises, lol. How long can the tease go on?
And beware of the phenomenon Eddie Murphy describes in Raw (or is it Delirious?) where the recipient after too long a wait can be disenchanted with the result.
plenty of idiots waiting for reward for good deeds in the afterlife in heaven.
tease will go on as long as buyer doesn't see a better alternative.
print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print
<<<bitchez>>>
Container shipping rates are also indicating weaker trade...
http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexRH.do?timePeriod=Years5&&dataType=Harpex&floatLeft=None&floatRight=None
just remember-the Baltic Dry S.I. has nothing to do with anything now that it has plummeted-in 2007/early 08-different story when it was as high as Snoop Dogg in Jamaica
Snoop Lion... he has been reborn.
Give the U.S. porn industry a zero-tax break already. Our exports will spurt to levels never seen before.
The Chinese would just bootleg and bankrupt the porn industry like they have everything else.
yes but what is that to a reference to the wreck of the edmund fitzgerald?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vST6hVRj2A
Hey Obamerama , get your ass back to the far east and book some plane sales for POS Boeing.
Solved
ZH still has plenty of sc*m who still love their 2008 islamic.
Speaking of collapsing, so is the bullshit story about the Aurora shooting.
http://americankabuki.blogspot.com/2012/07/these-arent-same-man.html
Any confirmation on the kid's father being a LIBOR informant?
"Any confirmation on the kid's father being a LIBOR informant" - that is one the most interesting aspects of the case if true but I haven't seen it confirmed anywhere.
All of my research, and I searched threads and posting for several hours after that claim came out on the internet, pointed back to the following link and the 4th paragraph therein, if it pointed anywhere.
This is an unsubstanciated claim and I have never been able to determine where, "this report says..." anything about testimony.
Sorcha Faal is a recognized disinformation web-personality, IMO.
Hate to break it to you, but those photos are of the same guy. The orange hair photo is taken from a lower angle distorting the perspective. The jawline, cheekbone, brow, and hairline are identical in both photos.
The lips are identical as well as the shape of the eyes. Other dead giveaways are the asymmetrical eyebrows that are an exact match. Along with every proportion being identical including the structure of his neck and adams apple, with identical lumps. Bone structure is identical and identifying marks appear to be identical in both photos.
The only differences are the color of the eyes and what appears to be a wider nose. Of course the orange hair. However the crushed color of the brown hair photo makes it impossible to tell eye color. If you look carefully at the original brown hair photo, you can see that the eye color is lighter than the pupil. If the subject had brown eyes, you would not be able to make out the pupil in that photo. The wider nose is due to the perspective of the photo and that the subject is smiling in photo 1.
Whoever played with the photos and tried to align them in photoshop has no idea what they are doing.
I edit photos for a living and if you sent me both photos, I would say they were of the same subject.
Promise?
"I edit photos for a living..."
Bullshit. BULLSHIT. Ran these pics by someone who knows image manipulation COLD. He says based on these shots, they are definitely NOT the same guy.
My first thought was, "there are definitely multiple shooters."
besides... if you study the background of the shooting, its fairly obvious that it was a ritual, and that someone was sending a message. Holmes is just the bagholder.
Sirhan surely was and I am sure Oswald was.
I ran the contents of my wallet by someone who knows money COLD. He says based on the contents, my wallet does NOT contain money.
"what appears to be a wider nose"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hey "I edit photos for a living" do me a favor, go in the bathroom and suck in your nose for me and then flare it out and look at your facial expressions and muscles in your face, as you do it!!
I'll give u a minute.............ok now tell me with a straight face (no pun intended) that having two different noses, isn't the smoking gun, that it's not the same guy!!!! Jesus, are you serious!!!!!!!!! I don't work for the spooks and I can tell you that unless there has been plastic surgery or Hollywood style make artists involved, if two photos have two different noses, it's two different people man!!!!!!!
The question isn't if it's two different photos, the question is.......why the hell are there two different people here????????
you mean kinda like when silver went from 49 to 27?....that kinda of smashdown?.....................
Silver was an organized takedown. Stocks are an organized pump up. both will eventually fail.
INO.com Markets - Chart for U.S $ INDEX (NYBOT:DX)
they cracked the fuking whip here on the USD this morning! all stop were wiped out; no survivors; i think brianSack is still figuring the push-buttons on the steering wheel of his new "edsel"...
everybody outa the water! sharks! L0L!!!
Sharks everywhere!
Glad I brought my speargun.
fonz---it should be clear that everything is an organized pump up and pump down....
i agree completely.
I think you're confusing "market" and "manipulation" again...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mcp7JDfV_3Y
This kind of hard landing.....
As assets are manipulated down or up by means outside of the free market they will eventually move to the opposite direction quickly.
It sure is and it's going to hurt. And when financial institutions and nations try to collect money from insurance they bought on this worthless debt, they will find out they don't have it.
3 sigma move in three months? ... so yet another black swan circling overhead ...
Without feathers on their heads, they are called VULTURES.
aka. Banksters. They will own ALL.
Serfdom USA dead ahead.
Don't worry, Wall St will just roll out new financial services products for export.
Hmm, use your binoculars, black swans are for Europe. Those my friend are buzzards, circling to pick on the DEAD corpse of our current system.
That should take the VIX down another point - and if we have a 50K loss in jobs tomorrow we should see a sub 16 handle on VIX! Yippee!
Indeed, when the market goes stillborn, VIX drops to zero.
Dont worry, as long as we keep getting the "everything is ok, we do anything to make sure everything looks fine" talk from the likes of Obama, Bernanke, Draghi, CNBC, everything will be fine.
Yeah, like Bagdhad Bob, CNBC will still be pumping FB while we see the repo men in the background hauling off their sets.
THOUGHT CRIMINAL # 3271143, YOUR THOUGHT CRIME HAS BEEN LOGGGED. PLEASE FACE THE MAGIC SQAWKING BOX, AND AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE OBAMA TRUTH SQUADS.
This inconvenient truth does not match the Democrat/Media-approved CURRENT TRUTH, there fore, you have been deemed a THOUGHT CRIMINAL.
Bullish!
Green Shoots!
Roots unfortunately...
every time we get a risk0ff, we know wtf is coming next
but wait till they get a whiff of that NAPM in the morning, BiCheZ!
+1 just for the Apocalypse Now reference. Clever.
And on the news, ES rallies ! Its tough on the short side.
Maria messes her pants and says, "We closed off the lows of the day."
Our main exports are War and Financial fraud. How much of that does the world really need?
As long as greedy people without morals are allowed to be in charge, a lot.
there's a big difference between what the few want vs. what the many need.
but your point is well taken.
If only we could manufacture more Chevy Volts...
IQ, it used to be entertainment...perhaps still may be?
Films were one of the biggest US exports. But that's fallen off quite a bit in the last few years. Probably still one of the biggest though...but not what it once was.
I think I see your thought. Hedges can be made into puzzles. We can start making markets more and more and more opaque. Hedge Puzzle Funds.
Yeah.... That's because the are making a lot of them over seas now... Universal recently opened it's biggest/newest studio in Singapore.. Good bye film Jobs! Sayonara!
you forgot, coca-cola, mcdonalds, ogm, disney and subprime mortgage bonds. a small list. and x-men. and let's not forget the 'hope and change' guy.
The markets rally over 4% in 3 trading days after the bullshit artists (Hilsenrath and Draghi) spew their nonsense and after all the lies are exposed the market can't even correct 1%? WTF? My question is rhetorical since we all know the markets are wholly manipulated.
Manipulation would be illegal and unethical, let's call it "intervention."
I thought it was closer to a 6% rise after Hilsenrath and Draghi pumped it? Not to argue your point though.
It's not over yet.
Bankster coordinated last pump before they pull the rug out here, with today being the 1 last reinforcement of 'See? Nothin bad can EVER happen!'
Yep, just like Lucy, Charlie Brown and the football. Come on Chuck! You can do it!!
Yes, it is funny how that works.
I suspect they took one more toke of the hopium in advance of he NFP. If that disappoints too, the party may really be over for a while... at least until Ben speaks again.
Excellent point. My theory empirical is that thier words are not what is moving the markets - thier words are a side-show obscuring the manipulation that is occuring. When you have negative interest rates what is the value of money and what is the proper valuation of assets. Leaving aside its all gone batshit.
Once the debt has reach this level and with thetrajectory it has we have achieved escape velocity. It no longer matters if Ben prints as the checks that timmy is writing are bogus but that cannot be stated in polite circles.
My theory is that their words are the only thing moving the market now.
Call it manipulation, if you like, but the expectation of money printing implied in those words is the only thing that matters to stock traders at this point. They are pricing in the inevitable inflation that CBs see as the debt laden western world's last great hope.
My thought exactly.
Didn't you think it a little strange that the MSM was saying over and over that the only thing propping up this market was the hope for coordinated QE next (this) week? The market got nada, Zilcho, from either the Fed or the ECB yet the pumped market held up just fine.
Proves it was not QE hopium that drove the market up this last week...but something else...
Rackets, not markets.
Look at the ramp job into the close. "Off it's lows" I wonder how many shorts jumped on this just to have their asses handed to them by the Bernank later.
More "intervention". It's for your own good! Trust your government.
yup. shorts will be eaten.
Strong dollar will do that.
KING DOELLAR!!
Is that you Tom O'brien.. Is this me?
Fuck exports, we've got 'up-beat stronger FED signals'!
BDI at 861. game over. and CB's know this. one last pump (last week) to get everyone ready for the plunge.
BDI is being skewed by the huge glut in new ship bottoms hitting the market. Chinese shipyard orders off by half in 1H12 because of the oversupply.
http://gcaptain.com/china-shipbuilding-slump-depressing/
There is the don't worry, "it is a lousy economic indicator" view:
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-01-30/markets/31004707_1_s-p-bo...
And, there is the "it is a leading economic indicator" view:
http://advisoranalyst.com/glablog/2008/12/05/baltic-dry-index-a-valuable...
I guess that if one were to see railroad sidings and yards full of unused rail cars, and trucking company parking lots filled with empty trailers, that was because of an over supply too, right?
Depends. Has there been a boom by a bundred companies buildng new and unneeded rail cars and tractor trailers, as there has been with cargo ships?
In regards to rail cars, the easiest way to see how new they are is to look for the BLT (Built) date, such as BLT 01-98.
Some of the rail cars that are in use yet can date back to the late 1960's.
When I worked as a trailer technician for an OTR trucking company, some of the local run equipment was older than I was at the time, and we had to use a lot of weld and imagination to keep them road worthy.
No wonder corporations are hoarding cash
I told ya the strong dollar (weak euro) would crush exports.
See.
Wait we export actual things? I thought we only exported fail, hypocracy, and apathy?
That is a different chart and looking at the FAH Chart (Fail, Hypocracy, Apathy) would show a strong fucking bull market with buy signs galore.
The number one export has to be Goldmanites.
Don't forget the Kardashians and America's got talent. Also, guns, bombs and other military equipment. Oh yea, almost forgot the CO2 and acid rain. Plus those amazing BuckyBalls as well as turducken.
We still export corn and soybeans...
Oh wait, that drought kind of might slow that down.... I guess we might have to tell the world to eat iPads after all.
Well, we still export jobs anyway.
i got in so much trouble for this - but - norway already gave the big bad bama the peace prize, so when 'snoop dogg' (did yo mama really name you that?) thank somebody they turned him away. how guilty do we really have to feel?? hopefully puff daddy stays in the hamptons. is this all we can export at this point? no joke. no sarcasm. i guess it's entertainment? the glorifcation of stupidity and violence and women abuse? and everybody tells me i'm an old fart and i'm wrong. great. i won't live to see the outcome, thankfully.
And export Hope, Change, and the American Dollar
Look at KCG AH. Wow. Peace see ya lata.
Don't worry! Obama will save the day
Or Romney, pick yer poison.
I think I'll try a poison that I have never tried because I know the poison I'm on now will kill me
FORWARD .... (with debt, dole, and damn shame)
Dollar up, exports down. No surprise there.
Strong Dollar???????
Who the hell do you think we would've been exporting too over the last three months???
Greece, Spain, Italy, England, India, Japan, China????
The world economy is crashing into the shitter, weak dollars won't fix that!!!!
more banker bonuses will fix this
hmmm, my service must be acting up. I'm seeing a big 3.5m share dump at the close for the SPY.
Another manifestation of what I call a Biflationary cycle. We are now in the phase where deflationary spiral in the real economy must follow rapid reflation of the paper economy (Through monetary expansion a la QE etc).
We are one or two bazookas away from everyone being on the dole who's not a billionaire
I think thats the case bazooka's or no bazooka's.
Well thank god we can elect Mitty and still have a President that can remain Independent and off the "dole"!!!
Sarcasm People!!!!!
Seriously thinking about pulling my cash tomorrow.
I knew this day was coming.
Caching shrimps in Norway, export them to the Netherlands, export them to Turkey to make them ready for consumption, import them to the Netherlands and export them to Russia. For example. Global trade is a freak show. Stay at home, with your culture, family and friends, produce local, consume local. This planet is way too small, and there are to many people. There's too much debt, but there's also too much growth. Crisis after crisis. With or without Bernanke. Controlled collapse is nessesary, or we will suffer much more in the future. If this is an attack on your ambition, you should try to sell Facebook shares door to door. But leave me alone...
You agree with Bernanke and Co. or do you not? How local can one go? I will tell you how local one should go: within. Look within and you shall never be without. Yet who is doing so? We are all looking for what we don't immediately need and so your telling me that crisis is necessary even on a local scale? Or are you too filled with ego to confront your false self?
Deep Six
Expected. Anyone ready to have an adult conversation yet? Let's be optimistic and say the entire world becomes an efficient producer/manufacturer, just like Germany. Tell me, who would the earth be selling to? Mars?
Huge H & S pattern on the semiconductor index
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SOX&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p25843879440&a=247953188
In the second qtr 2012, the US added $274B in debt and $117B in GDP. In the famous words of Herbert Stein, "If something can't go on forever, it won't."
All the big guns are in the house for the party. Greece is about to light a match that will incenerate the entire planet.
Did you ever wonder who pockets the difference? This is why conventional economic knowledge is wrong and I don't mean Keynes.
Why does everyone refer to "Post Lehman"? We are still post Lehman, and working to a new low... maybe we should refer to the market and economic situation as pre-LTCM... 666 here we come...
WTF
Falling Sky, bitches...
Wait till tommorows jobs report, that will really liven things up a bit.. /sarc.
The global economy is collapsing. Aggregate demand is collapsing. Today's factory orders down a little is just the tip of the iceberg.
NAMP export have dropped to the lowest level since June 2009. AARGGHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/08/02/a-preview-of-tomorrows-jobs-numbers-dismal-will-disability-claims-be-larger-than-drop-in-unemployment/
I work at a ice and water shield manufacturing plant in NH. Our sales were up 30% YOY for the first half of 2012, The last two months have been a disaster, down about 30% YOY. Sales have fallen off a cliff. I went to a tech fair today, all the vendors said the same thing business is dead. I think our day of reckoning is coming soon, who says the end of the world has to be an environmental disaster. Take away peoples way of life and they will be jumping out of windows and OD'ing on Prozac.
Duck and Cover.
The nuclear missles just arrived in Cuba from Russia.
All your exports are belong to us!
Just start the world war already.
I suspect there is a buy side risk of VIX convergence of the decoupling with CDS volatility and bond yield bear. No telling where the short sell arbitrage will hedge a linking of correlation simply to squeeze the LTRO with short term bull swaps.
Damn, that felt good.
The Australian exporters are scared shitless! Japanese style. The exporters have buy orders on that "helium balloon" everytime it drops 50-75 pips!
They can't make money exporting so they, are speculating on [ AUD } repatriation! Someone mentioned how " YOLKED" the Baltic Dry is earlier. Even though the " BDIY " tends to be a trailing indicator, I think that was a good observation.
Melt those empty cargo carriers down, and build a ghost city!
Here's something from another site regarding the China Ponze:
Hi all. I've been reading these threads since the beginning, I am actually surprised that we do not have any real conclusion to the situation since 2008. I own a business in HK and we deal a lot with PRC factories and shippers and we export around the world. If I could sum up the past 3 years from my own experience, I would say it is all very weird, it is like being in a dream and not being able to run properly, it all just seems so fake to me.
I ask my business owner friends and they like me are just surviving. The shippers I deal with are in really bad positions, they always make unscheduled visits to us to see if we have any orders for them. My suppliers in PRC told me they rest of this year looks bleak. By now all of the orders for the rest of the year should have been placed ages ago.
I have to say I understand what Ed is saying and it makes perfect sense to me, the similarities with 97 are so there. The big but though is of course the unprecedented government actions to keep the sinking ships afloat. But I'll have to give it to Loyd that the flat owners have stood firm so far, how long they can hold their nerve is another question once the money injections stop and we return to a more real situation.
http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/147615/th...
Was it last Friday or on Monday they reported a 57% decline in sales at Ford? They claimed this was because of Ford's heavy dependence on the Eurozone market, but I say 57% is 57% and those are depressionary levels of decline.
Fuck those channel stuffing (F & GM) douche bags! I want a 60% discount on my ferrari upgrade!