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The US Labor Market Is In A Full-Blown Depression
Now that stocks are back to reflecting nothing more than expectations of how many times the Chairsatan dilutes the existing monetary base in a carbon copy replica of not only 2011 but also 2010... and 2009 (because contrary to what purists may believe, the only way to inflate away unsustainable debt in a growth-free economy is by destroying the currency), and manic pattern chasers have crawled out of their holes proclaiming the death of the bear market after a two day bounce, what is happening in the actual economy, no longer reflected by the market, has once again been pulled back to the backburner. Which is sad, because while ever fewer people reap the benefits of artificial, centrally-planned S&P rallies, the rest of the population suffers, and what is worse: hope for a quiet, middle-class life is now an endangered species. Nowhere is this more evident than in the following list from David Rosenberg which summarizes how, quietly, the US labor force slipped back into a full-blown depression.
From David Rosenberg:
One Sick Labor Market
There were so many disturbing elements to the May jobs data that we're not sure we can do justice to the litany of disappointments (with some help from our friends at the Investor's Business Daily):
- The share of long-term unemployment is at its highest level since the Great Depression (42%).
- Fully 54% of college degree graduates under the age of 25 are either unemployed or underemployed.
- 45 million Americans are on food stamps — one in seven residents.
- 47% of Americans are on some form of government assistance.
- The employment-to-population ratio for 25-54 year olds is now 75.7%, lower than it was when the recession supposedly ended in June 2009.
- The number of people not in the labour force has swelled eight million since the recession ended; absent that effect, the unemployment rate would be 12% right now (about the same as President Obama's election chances would be).
- The number of people confident enough to leave their jobs fell 11% in May
for the second month in a row to 891k, the lowest since November 2010. - The ranks of the unemployed who have been looking fruitlessly for work for at least 27 weeks jumped 310k in May, the sharpest increase since May 2011.
- The unemployment rate for males aged 16-19 is 27% and for males between 20 and 24 it is 13%. Draw your own conclusions from a social (in)stability standpoint.
- One in seven Americans are either unemployed or underemployed.
- Only one in six of the youth are working full-time and three-in-five are living with their folks or another relative (as per the NYT).
- A mere 16% of the 2009-2011 graduating class has found full-time work, while 22% are working part-time. Even those hired from 2006-08, just 23% are working full-time.
- According to a poll cited in the NYT, just 14% of high-school grads today believe they will have a more successful financial future than their parents Line of the day, as depressing as it is, comes from an 18-year old: "Thank God I had a buddy at Burger King who could help me out". Fast-food has emerged as the fast-growing industry in a country once led by technology. Even tech now is fuelled more by companies that produce nifty consumer gadgets and feed our narcissistic needs than those who focus on improving the nation's capital stock which is the ultimate trailblazer for productivity growth and durable gains in our standard-of-living.
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Romney will re-institute the FEDs charter. (This time for a thousand years)
He'll reconfirm the Bernank and they will print..
edit: They'll also raise the ceiling to 50T.. Bankers will be fine..
Of course he will, Romney is getting the kind of money that Obama got in 2008 from the bankers. The squids figure they've already bought obama, now they need to pony up to buy romney just in case.
Another FAIL on the part of the bankers. It would be much cheaper to just pull a Dick Chaney and hire a group of hackers to hack the Diebold. Just research Michael Connell.
*yeah, i linked a huffington post article. Dont worry, I hate all MSM. This article just proves that journalism still somewhat exists, as long as it plays into the whole "red vs blue" narrative. Let me take this time to say Fuck MSNBC, FOX, CNN, NPR, WSJ, WP, NYT, Politico, etc. *
/bow
+soap
the FED will celebrate the 100th anniversary by printing (A) $
934,775,751,000Current US population (B)
311,591,917
Divide A/B you get 3K, Okay!
PArty Party Party
rather ironic that Romney is a hedge fund
It's not about lifestyle in monetary terms. They have enough money to live whatever personal lifestyle they want. It's about control over others.
The middle class has always been a buffer and kep things seemingly even - that is why they are in the middle. It's not just about having a middle class income, but they tend to be more involved and educated compared to those in poverty.
The problem with peasants revolting is that they are less educated and less organized.
Historically, what tends to happen as the middle class gets wiped out, those former middle class have now become educated peasants. That is when the real revolution begins.
I try to not get cynical about what the middle class represents, because in real terms, it gets a nice life for a hella lot of people *and* tends to "spread" downward much better than the economies of the well-to-do, simply as a matter of scale. Your analysis is right. At the very least, it is a buffer, an aspirational buffer. But the poor shall not be fed vaporware; without an actual Ozzie and Harriet they can see, drive by, and yes, go to school with, things will get nasty socially in the US very, very fast. Watts riots exponentially constructed.
It isn't a question of resources, it's a question of brains--I can't tell you how many people I run into every day that I wonder "how does person manage to remember to breathe?"
I could not believe the stupidity of most of the people I read on the interwebs. I am WAY smarter than I thought I was.
Remember, autonomic functions like breathing are handled at the brain stem level-quite primative.
Or as I said at the obituary of a former idiot manager: "I was always impressed he could function so well with only a brain stem"
Another fact to ponder: the gaussian IQ distribution peaks at 100-half a above and half below this level. In a modern high tech society an IQ of at least 120 is required to be useful-and at least >130-150 in technical or scientific research fields. I'm surprised the labor participation rate is as high as it is.
I'm not questioning you, but any chance you got a link about that IQ and a technological society deal? IF that is correct, and the IQ's really distribute that way, ummm, this sucks.
The problem with IQ tests is that they are more of a measure of what you have been exposed to, rather than intelligence. The people who score the highest are the ones that live in the same geographic area and the same social circle as the people that wrote the test. A personal example is that one of the IQ tests that I took had a question about who had performed in the Philharmonic in 1987 (or some such year). The very obvious question of what this has to do with intelligence was apperently never asked.
Website with similar bent: http://www.sagepub.com/newman4study/resources/iqtests.htm
Wikipedia (has some good info, including standardizing tests to average 100 for a population): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient
Yeah, I want to see how "smart" people are when they have to identify poisonous and non-poisonous plants in order to survive...
I had a co-worker who once sat there staring at an automatic gate that wouldn't close. He told me that someone from "maintenance" needed to be contacted. Mind you, this guy can babble on and on about electrical circuits. So, I walk over to the reflective sensor and wiped it off. The gate then closed. I have no formal education in electronics and have never encountered this kind of situation prior to this episode. I'd figure that my IQ score wouldn't be higher than this guy's.
The IMPORTANT number is how many years you can mange to live.
That's why I farm as hard as I do; for those who can't. Why? Because I am not evil, I am a well-adjusted person, and I believe love, not profit, is what makes people really happy.
I believe you are absolutely right sir.
I'm going down the farming path. Failures in farming are easier to eat than with other lines of work :-)
BTW - Is your username based on a location?
Are you insane? When is the last time you drove across the USA dipshit? There are enough resources and land to feed 20 billion people.....
But because of joos like Diane "ashkenazi" FEINSTEIN and her Monstanto husband CEO.......YOU are brainwashed to think differently....
this is going to end very badly.....for the 1% me thinks....
Just make sure when it does.....YOU PEOPLE help your neighbor....even if its the idiot above.......
this is going to end very badly.....for the 1% me thinks....
God I hope so.
I got a sturdy lamp post close to where I live with a good view from the rooftops and porches!!!
Personally, I find this 1% and 99% and other comments like 10% of the population controls 90% of the wealth to be amusing. This type of talk has been around but got much more attention after the occupy protests.
Well all I can say is this. There has always been a small percentage of people that control most of the wealth. It just didn't happen over night, over the last decade, or over the last century. It as always been that way from kings to emperors to dictators and even presidents. And after every said revolution including future ones, there will still be a minority few that will control a much higher percentage of the wealth then the average person.
I would think it would be best to try to become one of those 1%, but in an ethical way of course. Isn't that what we want people in poverty to strive for - to reach the middle class? Aren't middle class people striving to become millionaires and have a comfortable retirement? Yes, I know the American dream is over. but the ideal armed with true free capitalistic markets is what made America great.
"Yes, I know the American dream is over. but the ideal armed with true free capitalistic markets is what made America great."
Care to elaborate and give a timeline of when the markets where truly free and unregulated ?
Would that be before Glass Steagal or after ?
That would be before Glass-Steagall...
That type of thinking is exactly how the living Presidents got elected - the hope that I too can be just like them one day. Amazing how voters cast votes againts their own best interests because of that hope.
Overnight attacks to vanquish people into poverty (or death) and take all they had is precisely how the 1% (and 1% of 1%) got their wealth. Very little of it is any kind of profit, innovation or trading benefits. Almost all is from genocide, war, theft, murder.
every now and then, i realize my fellow citizens are sometimes pretty damn smart. thnx theriddick
"When is the last time you drove across the USA dipshit? There are enough resources and land to feed 20 billion people....."
Where does all the fresh water for irrigation and the Oil to run the tractors and process it come from?
Well, since he didn't specify how many times they would be fed, he wouldn't necessarily be wrong...
"There are enough resources and land to feed 20 billion people....."
You're pulling numbers out of your ass.
Not all land is created equal, "dipshit."
There are also other logistics that factor in, such as available energy to maintain transportation infrastructure and delivery of said food (not to mention the necessary inputs to its production).
When was the last time you stepped on to a farm?
Just because there are those that exploit things it doesn't mean that that which they are exploiting is based on a hoax. Based on your logic, gravity would be a hoax if these "joos" were pushing us off a cliff to our death.
This is just more political tripe that keeps us from understanding what the real controlling forces are. Don't confuse this as me not agreeing that your noted "monsters" are monsters, I DO agree, but I happen to not subscribe to the poor logic you're attempting to use to promote some made up number of our land's carrying capacity.
If you count crop failures, rising energy prices and the fact most of the food production won't get stored in a way that will last for shipping then no, there's no way at all you can feed 20 billion just from the USA. Can't even feed the 7 billion alive today.
I think an important person once said that the American Way Of Life is Blessed and Non-Negotiable. The Holy Free Hand, once worshipped appropriately by all Americans, will ensure that there are no limits to consumption or material well being. With hard work, anyone can become their own little demi-god.
awesome, spa_rex!
listen: i'm gonna jump in here with a slewienomicsTM popQuiz ok? [yes, that is rhetorical, teacher...]
Q: who the fuk sedDis [Paste}:
DISTORTED MONEY MANAGEMENT
An interesting little exchange occurred this week between (_____???) and Tyler Durden, the crack analyst editor at Zero Hedge. My point was that he misses the point of capital destruction from the ZIRP policy of enforced 0% as official rate. He argued two excellent points that did sink into the stubborn (______???) brain stem. Artificially low interest rates enable consumers to spend improperly and unwisely. The setting was prepared by an unusually enlightening debate between Rick Santelli and Gary Kaminsky on CNBC, the official Wall Street public address system wall with loudspeakers. They argued that the now status quo financial repression identified by low interest rate and QE environment are not good for the USEconomy. How true!! But this spout of wisdom occurs in the mainstream. Santelli cannot be suppressed, too smart, too experienced, too outspoken. Durden wrote, "Borrowing and saving are really about whether to consume more now or later (or more later and less now). We agree with Professor Antony Davies that these decisions are best left to individuals, and not the Nanny State Fed. Each person's judgment of what is best for them is replaced by the Federal Reserve's judgment and the free market interest has become a thing of the past (for now). Lower rates don't mean more spending; they mean more spending now and less in the future."
Sure enough. Thanks for sending us yours in exchange for our rough green toilet paper.
op be trollin
Because Chinese citizenism's consuming so much of them. Chinese citizenism's inventing nothing while consuming most of world's resources and transforming them into plastic crap that lasts less than a year and massive air pollution that washes around the planet for decades. Truly the nature of Chinese citizenism is eternal. If only US citizenism had not stopped the Japanese citizenism from replacing them with something better. Truly the nature of US citizenism is eternal with being tricked by Chinese citizenism.
What...............
The hell?
GDP divided By Population = 50,000 per man, woman and child.......
But hey 6 Wally world jerkoffs have more wealth than 30+% of Americans.....
Being back the guillotine - they didn't get that wealth by being smarter or better businessmen.....
They got it by bribing our politicians.......
With tax policy, tariff and trade policies and welfare policies........
The USA guv and the top corporations in country make Tony Soprano look like a Sunday school teacher.
They got it by utterly destroying the supply chain....first. Those who didn't follow ceased to exist.
My parents own a little mom and pop shop in a small town, they pay double for a case of pepsi directly from the distributor that they do if they buy it directly from Walmart. Walmart sells soda pop as a loss leader to attract other business.
Walmart IS the distributor now. Because they can force the suppliers to give them product at ultra low margin or kiss their production runs goodbye.
AMEN
Hope & Change (depression) bought to you by the Democrats including some f**ks who are posting here. Yeah yeah the RINOs suck too but Hussein is the worst.
Hey Tylers - more Snorg and other t-shirt banner ads.
You just don't get it, do you? Although you might have heard "Hope and Change" during the last election, what Barry was actually saying was "Hopeless in Chains".
I hope this clears things up for you.
Amazing that it took 15 years to recover from the Depression, and then only due to rocking exports after every other manufacturing power was bombed into rubble, and they expect Obama to pull us out of this mess in a couple of years with the Republicans fighting him all the way?
And no, I didn't vote for him and I won't this time either. But I sure wouldn't be in such a hurry to put the idiots who got us into this mess right back in again! Unreal.
+1
You also had tons of debt, FDR confiscating gold, devaluing the dollar etc etc. The Dems move to the far left which lets the Repubs move to the left not that it matters. The lesser of two evils.
i don't expect (or want) obama to pull us out of this mess.
i want an end to the banker bailouts, vote buying politicians, entitlement mentality, government intervention, corporate cronyism, etc.
i may not hold my breath waiting for all that, but just in case that's all unrealistic, i want this government to have enough horsepower to powerdive and auger so we can get back onto building our world without their parasitic interference.
vote? you've got to be kidding. left and right are your puppet strings, buddy, not mine. lesser of two evils, freddie? you're a tool too.
Indeed. It's weird that someone can exist on this site for longer than about a month and not see behind the curtain, despite the lot of us literally tearing that curtain right the fuck off.
Don't vote. If you don't then mine means more. My single vote doesn't mean much, but when you factor in the none voters it gets doubled. Why do you think the senior citizens are so over represented; they vote. It reminds me of people who don't save because they don't have much.
The seniors get bussed in and Diebold is always an option.
if your only vote choices are OBama or Romney then no, your vote does NOT mean more and that's the single most important point. Those 2 vote choices are precisely equal and worth precisely zero
Yea...obummer who has presented 2 budgets which were voted down unanimously in both the House and the Senate...You mean the guy who spent more time fundraising than the last 3 presidents combined????
The guy who has run up more debt in 3 years than bushie did in 8????
The guy who was against tax breaks before he was for them before he was against them???
The guy is clueless and I want some your hopium
Actually, it was three budgets, and don't forget his first trillion dollar deficit was the from last Bush budget. And if you're defending Bush, yikes!
If you were up against the massive amounts of billionaire money being raised after Citizens United, I expect your party would want the Fundraiser in Chief on the road too.
Let's face it, the guy is a bigger success story than either Bush or Romney. He was born black during the last years of segregation into a broken home with a mother on food stamps, and becomes the frigging president. Those other two dopes were born rich and got ahead with Daddy's help.
If I had to choose, and I don't, I would go for the guy who defied all odds and excelled in everything he did as opposed to those asshats who drove us into a histically deep ditch.
Results used to matter. Close your eyes and...oh, they are closed.
I miss Shrub. I really couldn't stand the little fuck but looking back, his evil had a kind of innocent "aw shucks" quality. The Bummer, on the other hand is just the hands down worst chief exec this country has ever had. The fucker is just tearing wholesale chunks from the fabric of the republic that my ancestors bled for. I want to not care about any of the damn baby kissers, but this wanker makes my blood boil almost daily. I spent the entire hour of my drive to work on Monday just shaking my head over Eric Holders' contribution to this fiasco (soon catastrophe). Digging away at the roots of generations of jurisprudence like a demented little mole and not a peap (hardly) from the drones. (I refer to the brilliant assertion that due process does not equal judicial process for gods sake, really?).
</rant>
Oh yeah, this is good, someone coached that douchebag in NLP.
:-)
I would never defend the shrub or his dad....remember too that the budget in place when obummer ascended the throne was signed by bush but passed in the pelosi house and the reid controlled senate and the jr senator from Illinois voted Aye....so he gets no pass from me
You think obummer got where he is on his own??? The 1st affirmative action president annointed by those who pull the strings...Bush sucks but obummer is worse
"due to rocking exports after every other manufacturing power was bombed into rubble"
The next time Krugman says, "deficit spending is how we ended the great depression", please remind the idiotic little bitch that we were able to pay for that debt by DESTROYING the competition's ability to produce and the Russians then removed half of our potential post war competition to be sure we had an open field!
My God Krugman is a fucking hypocrite and an ideologue.
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2012/jun2012/krug-j05.shtml
Paul Krugman shills for Obama and capitalism
today NO ONE shills for capitalism except for zerohedge, Ron Paul (unless he flip-flops), Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, Jim Rickards (and various others on KWN) and a few blogs.
.
You really can't expect too much from Freddie. He's a mongoloid and can only process very simple and rudimentary concepts. He views the world through the lens of talk radio and, although several people have tried to explain Google's Ad Sense to him, he still believes that the Tylers select the ads that run on ZH.
At least he doesn't watch TeeVee.
Hey Tyler, could you get the snorg girls to do an editorial/pictoral on body painting?
I am literally lol'ing. I can't imagine how old and senile and/or obtuse that dude is to not get how ads on the internet work
ok, i lulled too. hadn't given it a thought . rofl
Rope and change. Fixed it again.
I always preferred Stone Temple Pilots.
A new administration requires fresh prostitutes. This is known as a 'Ho Pen Change'.
Keep clicking on em and you'll get more of em, Freddie.
like clones?
which is why i'm so anti.soc, so pls f'give
thxz
It's okay, I just wanted to say the tee offer was appreciated but not necessary. It was fun to know the answer to a question like that around these parts.
Cheers to the original (and only) pi-rat
yabyum
Dude they fucked themselves
Watch this and listen to what Rowe has to say about work and attitudes regarding it in the US.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRVdiHu1VCc
Mike Rowe celebrates dirty jobsTranscript
http://www.politicalspeeches.net/mike-rowe-speech/mike-rowes-tedtalk-spe...
...
"
It goes like this — we’ve declared war on work, as a society, all of us. It’s a civil war. It’s a cold war, really. We didn’t set out to do it and we didn’t twist our mustache in some Machiavellian way, but we’ve done it. And we’ve waged this war on at least four fronts, certainly in Hollywood. The way we portray working people on TV, it’s laughable. If there’s a plumber, he’s 300 pounds and he’s got a giant buttcrack, admit it. You see him all the time. That’s what plumbers look like, right? We turn them into heroes, or we turn them into punchlines. That’s what TV does. We try hard on Dirty Jobs not to do that, which is why I do the work and I don’t cheat.
But, we’ve waged this war on Madison Avenue. I mean, so many of the commercials that come out there — in the way of a message, what’s really being said? Your life would be better if you could work a little less, if you didn’t have to work so hard, if you could get home a little earlier, if you could retire a little faster, if you could punch out a little sooner, it’s all in there, over and over, again and again.
Washington — I can’t even begin to talk about the deals and policies in place that affect the bottom line reality of the available jobs because I don’t really know. I just know that that’s a front in this war."
...
"
So, we’re thinking — by we, I mean me — that the thing to do is to talk about a PR campaign for work, manual labor, skilled labor. Somebody needs to be out there talking about the forgotten benfits I’m talking about grandfather stuff. The stuff a lot us probably grew up with but we’ve kind of — you know, kind of lost a little.
Barack wants to create two and a half million jobs. The infrastructure is a huge deal. This war on work, that I suppose exists, has casualties like any other war. The infrastructure’s the first one Declining trade school enrollments are the second one. Every single year, fewer electricians, fewer carpenters, fewer plumbers, fewer welders, fewer pipefitters, fewer steamfitters. The infrastructure jobs that everybody is talking about creating are those guys. The ones that have been in decline, over and over. In the meanwhile, we got two trillion dollars, at a minimum, according to the American Society of Civil Engineers, that we need to expend to even make a dent in the infrastructure which is currently rated at a D minus."
Odd isn't it? The work is there to be done...trillions of dollars worth. Everyone agrees the infrastructure needs fixing. Everyone agrees we need to create jobs in the US.
What is missing?
Is it the money?
Is it the will to get the job done?
Is it a lack of skilled workers?
Is it our arrogance that we and our children are too good to be lowly construction workers?
We need to do LESS talking and MORE doing!
"Every single year, fewer electricians, fewer carpenters, fewer plumbers, fewer welders, fewer pipefitters, fewer steamfitters."
If you look around you'll see that there are a lot less shoe-makers as well!
Perhaps the REASON why we're seeing less of these trades-folks is because we can no longer afford what they produce? With the primary reason being that "free trade" and the "global market" has mis-priced things geographically; and, the increasing REAL costs of REAL physical resources that are the materials that are the main inputs. Yes, there are govt regulations that tend to get in the way, but even if they were wiped out completely you'd find that the globalists would STILL come out on top.
2/3 of the world's population lives on $3/day or less. There's not enough capacity for expansion. This is what the end of growth looks like. We cannot FORCE it by will, by just creating more "skilled" people so that "They," the "consumers," will come.
Ultimately the policies are set by Mother Nature. And with "her" there is no negotiating, no voting out of office, and, certainly, waging war on "her" would be a pretty silly thing.
Again and again and... Again:
What if all those derivative contracts were retroactively declared illegal??? And, do not say that they cannot be. USAGov has rewritten tax law, criminal law - all sorts of laws - retroactively applicable.
What happens if it becomes apparent that all those 700 trillion (I hear even more from other sources) are declared nul and void?
First off: Game over for the banks and corps who are depending on them to "balance" their books. Oh. Really. Not.
Second off: Governments who backed the deriv gamers are dead in the water. Maybe some are really dead. Like. Thats. Not. Going. To. Happen. Anyway.
Third off: The living humans are left with algebra. Cross off the self-cancelling debts. Make arrangements with those who are owed. Under the circumstances who is going to fight getting something. The alternative is nothing.
Those Over The Counter, Off Balance Sheet Derivatives are going to die. That is the result either way. Might as well spare the people the pain of being dragged through what Greece is going through on a blow by blow. Just end the monster. It. Is. Dead. Anyway.
***
From illyia Fri, 06/01/2012 - 09:35 | 2483648
...While the elites and power-brokers many make nominal gains on transactions the only way they can "stretch this out" is by printing (as most would acknowledge around here). That act will cause an inglorious end to our system (as is generally acknowledged everywhere). Some of the collateral damage will be martial law oriented policing, capital controls, travel bans, massive dislocation on a scale we cannot imagine.
The alternative (perhaps by popular demand - under extreme pain) would be the financial system exploding [edit-i.: through massive deflation]. The revenue stream machine exploding. By disallowing the stupid construct of derivatives to the moon and back, much of the future-cast problem is eliminated. The problems would pertain to the current situation - not decades of debt enslavement.
The two results are not comparable... except in initial pain. Rejection of the derivative mountain means elites lose out permanently, but over the long run the people prosper. In essence, this is what Obama should have done on 1-20-08. That is the fail he will be tarred with in history.
***
From zhandax Fri, 06/01/2012 - 04:19 | 2482762
Barliman, would you object to another view of your reasons? After declaring these instruments null and void, the net result is the owners of hard assets still own them, and those with virtual claims on them will take it up the ass. Who really cares in what order? They are all going down anyway, and will realize it quickly. Removing all this fictional virtual wealth from all the banks and multinationals and bankrupting them is nothing but positive in my book. In a bankruptcy, the assets are sold to the highest bidder. Those divisions of multinationals who make a product in demand will find ready bidders, if it is you offering 100 gold buffaloes for Deere's replacement parts division (all of it, manufacturing to sales). Or if 100 gold buffaloes won't cut it, perhaps you pool resources with a dozen others of like mind. It is no longer like there is an M&A department left open or or you can just walk into JPM with a killer biz plan. Hard assets talk at whatever the highest bid available. In bankruptcy, there is no such thing as withholding assets from sale to avoid MTM. And those newly-created companies formed from those bargain assets will now be too small for arrogance, rather than TBTF. There will be rampant unemployment and people will re-discover that grasshoppers are edible because WalMart's shelves will be empty. Don't worry about oil, because with the government unable to borrow money, everyone will be walking. Don't believe I don't realize how painful this will be; but just like the depression of 1921, it will be over faster than anyone can realize.{**}
This is the view by doing this deliberately and broadcasting what to expect via MSM. The kick-the-can alternative, where this occurs spontaneously and suddenly it looks like nobody is driving the bus is where you get the normally stable people going apeshit with Kalashnikovs. Those predisposed to that kind of action will do so simply because their SNAP cards no longer work under either scenario. The 'Minsky moment', or whatever you use to refer to the events already set in motion will lead to many of the same outcomes. My support of illyia's argument is simply that it will produce less collateral damage, and lead to a speedier and healthier eventual recovery.
{** I agree. This would be over so much faster... than this torturous crawl!!!}
***
From boiltherich Fri, 06/01/2012 - 08:06 | 2483080
I think what Illiya is trying to get at is this, if those derivatives had actually CREATED anything, money, traded 700 trillion dollars worth of some kind of stuff, then inability to satisfy counterparty obligations would indeed be a serious problem triggering a total collapse of our way of life.
But, those 700 trillion in derivatives are ghosts in the financial system, promises made between private parties that never did and never could have paid off in the event they were ever triggered. If they were ever triggered by real life events they would all be mutually extinguishing. The writers, buyers, sellers, traders invented them and INVENTED economic claims on our productivity they never had a right to. In order for these products to do the economy any real harm they would have to have first generated some real good. They are no more real than if I up and decided to write an IOU for 700 trillion and take it to my bank as collateral on a loan.
Clearly that would be fraudulent, but would they call the cops or the SEC on me? No, because it would be more pathetic than criminal. In order for those derivatives to have any value they would first have to have created that value, you can't lose something that was never created.
I do not worry about what happens AFTER the derivatives are triggered because they will have no impact, they will be confetti, the holders can't make claims on stuff that does not exist and they can't make claims on you and I that they have no legal right to, it is how they affect decisions in business and finance BEFORE they are triggered that has me P.O.'ed about them, because big corporations, banking and finance, government even, are making decisions about production and employment based upon an aversion to the risk of triggering these instruments, and that is only going to get worse till they blow up. Then we will see that they were nothing to worry about all along.
We do need a ballsy reformer that understands how the fiat banking system and credit system works, I do wish Paul had ever had a chance, now that he is out of the running I wonder who on the horizon can do the job because Dr. Paul is just too elderly for another run in 2016.
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From XitSam Fri, 06/01/2012 - 09:22 | 2483566
If I understand your proposition correctly, since they (generally bankers) owe all this deriviative stuff to themselves, when it gets wiped clean we won't be affected. But what happened is that pension funds and ordinary bank accounts are involved, there was a transfer of wealth, leveraged, in the creation of these instruments that will get destroyed and ordinary people literally1 starve.
1 Yes I do mean literally. And starvation is an ugly thing. Worse because 99% won't understand why.
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From illyia Fri, 06/01/2012 - 09:57 | 2483796
Yes XitSam, starvation is an ugly thing - but it is going to happen anyway - occasionally at the end of a gun - or worse. Things will become horrifying no matter what. And, "We The People" - of the last 30 years - are the ones who let it happen. There is a certain amount of justice in that. Right now (and I am not under any circumstances promoting OWS-type actions) we are allowing this idiocy to continue.
The plain fact is that the Over The Counter, Off Balance Sheet, 700+ Trillion in derivatives are Accounting FRAUD. They cannot be used in safety - except: Like any "good" Ponzi Scheme, the first out get paid.
That has already happened. We are now heading for the next stage and the beginning of complete debasement of our vaunted currency... over however many months or years the doobees can stretch it. All for our own good. Because we need our finance system and government to function. Until. It. Stops.
I will not let up on this subject. I hope thoughtful ZHers will continue to think and write on this issue. It appears to me that retroactively denying the derivatives legality is the ONLY rational path to a reasonable future for the coming generations.
<>Do what matters. Vote with your wealth. Sell all stocks, bonds and dollars. Buy gold, silver, food, fuel, and other tangible survival oriented assets. Stir until boiling then add revolution. Voila! As Lenin said, "all political power comes from the barrel of a rifle".
He never watched American TV
"The living humans are left with algebra..."
Can we make as our first rule that all financial instruments must be calculable by 6th graders? because, anymore than that the nonsense starts.
The law is set up to give derivatives first claim on a BK bank that is far above the depositors. See MFGlobal for proof.
Read what Paul Craig Roberts has to say:
http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/06/06/the-economy-comes-unglued/
My fear is that once they overturn the big rock the slithering fuckers will just find other rocks, and the game will be once again "on." Not that the planet have much left to game with, but they'll try nonetheless.
The ENTIRE system is based on a HUGE flaw, that of seeking perpetual growth on a finite planet. When you start from this premise then how can anything else really be viewed as being problematic? The premise is just like that scenario of the person walking in the bank with the 700 trillion-dollar IOU. We, however, accept lesser non-sensical stuff, like small growth percentages as being possible: why is it that we never hear of folks proposing we grow like 80% or something? When we apply bigger numbers we see the flaw, but with smaller numbers we pretend that the flaw no longer applies (although the math function applies equally!).
http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/13485882/dead-market
I respectfully disagree Yabyum.
You should read this. VERY WELL DONE re the BLSBS.
http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/us-commentary/25559-old-lie-returns-in...
While I do not disagree that the birth/death model is nothing more than a way to "game" the numbers, I do disagree with the author in that he somehow believes the "birth/death" model is related to actual birth/death of persons. It is not, the BLS has devised a mathmatical model of birth/death of companies; I can find no where that this is in any way extrapolated from actual birth/death of persons.
To me, this is a fundamental problem with his article.
Read the comments. The author answers this. Companies:people is just correlated BS which is not a constant. You wont find an extrapolation either because if you could we wouldn't need a model, we would just use the raw data, hence it's all marked to fantasy.
Bidderman pointed this out not too long ago: he suggested that the data is available in near real time.
I'm employed but still depressed.
I heard the job market for creepy hispanic midget f**ks like you is pretty good.
Dwarf unemployment rate only 4.3% (Obama talking point #263).
+100
LOL!
Why not just type
FUCKS
??
I will change my avatar picture, sir, I will, and then I shall make you drive me around your little Fantasy Planet!
But....But....Bubble Ben said that US Companies were hiring?????
•Only one in six of the youth are working full-time and three-in-five are living with their folks or another relative (as per the NYT).
_____________________________________
Does it mean that the economy has gone local?
From the article, "A mere 16% of the 2009-2011 graduating class has found full-time work, while 22% are working part-time. Even those hired from 2006-08, just 23% are working full-time."
Said differently, more than 6 out of 10 people who graduated from 2009-2011 are not even working part-time. Anyone still thinking student debt is a non-issue?
Didn't think so...
The young-uns voted for Hype & Chance in 2008. Let em eat cake.
If their islamic wins again in 2012 - they will not find jobs for another 4 years. So in 2016, they will probably have to wait another year or 2017 to find a job, which will be doubtful anyway.
So they will be about 31 years old when the job market might recover and they will be competing against 21 year olds with skills. By the time they are 3, thanks to the hussein depression, they will look like shit from eating fast food and staring at iPads. The guys will be balding. No one will f***king hire them at that time.
Nice job dumb fux.
You just can't cure stupid.
And yes Freddie, I am speaking of you.
pods
LOL! I saw your video on the net. You were that weepy cheese head union fuk in Wisconsin crying about democracy last night. You libtards always cry about democracy because you have no clue ythat you live in a republic.
Hype and Chaos
Well I would argue that we in fact DO live in a democracy, and have for longer than I have been alive.
But not for the reasons that you may believe.
The republic was abandoned. I would say as soon as the 17th amendment was declared ratified the republic was put on the shelf as the states lost their representation in the federal government.
One could also argue that with FDR calling in the people's gold as a part of the bankruptcy of the US government we instituted democracy.
Lemme ask YOU a question. Are you a citizen? If you are (surely you are), then you are part of the 14th amendment trust and are in fact living in the same democracy as the rest of us.
Like I said, you can't cure stupid.
Blinders are for racehorses Freddie, not people.
pods
Pods, have you ever uttered or written a word in your life withouth sounding like an affected, haughty little bitch? Just askin'
Yes.
The Huffington Post blog doesn't count.
Once again pods up arrows his own post. Does it every time.
Sorry, no need for that.
But, I will up arrow yours!
Have a nice night.
pods
some of the ad hominem (just directed at him, personally) stuff doesn't carry as much weight here as on faceFuk...
pods is a valued part of the zH dialogue 2slewie; personal, also
was it fun to jump on his back when he was trying to handle freddie? do you think pods would do that to you or anyone else? see fightClub rule #4:
1st RULE: You do not talk about FIGHT CLUB. 2nd RULE: You DO NOT talk about FIGHT CLUB.3rd RULE: If someone says "stop" or goes limp, taps out the fight is over.
4th RULE: Only two guys to a fight.
5th RULE: One fight at a time.
6th RULE: No shirts, no shoes.
7th RULE: Fights will go on as long as they have to.
8th RULE: If this is your first night at FIGHT CLUB, you HAVE to fight.
The Rules of Fight Club brought to you by Digging For Fire.@ freddie
just find myself amazed at your astute analysis of the left right political paradigm.
don't ever let yourself believe that its a rigged game guaranteed to help goys like you stay tangled in you panties.
pods said:
Freddie is the mongoloid face of US citizenism.
i really think you're tapping into a new well of insight, ananonymous inspired.
who says his posts are a waste o' space!
Freddie's picture is too stupid looking to be real US citizenism.This is confirmed by his endless struggle with ads on this site that any 8th grade US citizenism could block easily. Most likely Chinese citizenism troll trying to make US citizenism look more deserviing of overthrow attempts by Chinese citizenism leading to most wise utilization of resources presently wasted by US citizenism. Truly the nature of US citizenism is eternal.
Or perhaps it was a brilliant tactical maneuver worthy of Hannibal or even Caesar - vote for the one who seemed more economically destructive so as to hasten the coming of the end, and slouch toward Babylon until then.
...just sayin'.
actually, regardless of intentions/forethought, this is who gets picked every time... it's just that there's an exponential effect and we're now in the vertical phase.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-26/getting-into-harvard-easier-tha...
Over the last two years I have noticed a drastic difference in the people working behind the counter at McDonalds...
less kids, and a lot more older (more responsible adults) men and women who look clearly over-qualified to take my order from the Dollar Menu. Honestly, I pray that I don't become one of them.
They might look overqualified to take your order, but I don't see any of them getting it correct with any greater %.... I just see older people... probably less inclined to spit in the food just for fun or fuck with customers for the hell of it... but practically speaking not particularly different.
what is this tacoBell?
That would explain the blue hairs in my Big Mac...
Well if they are short, curly and brown/black you have my permission to hulk out..
unbezahlbar, who started all this looks like bella tacoBelle to slewie
but marge simpson? priceless! Hahaha!
Marge Simpson made your burger?
"and a lot more older (more responsible adults)"
There seems to be a couple of problems here with your post:
1) You're eating at McDonalds and are grading others?
2) If these folks were so "responsible" then WTF are they doing working at McDonalds?
Yeah, "responsible" as in being sheep to Corporatism.
OT- Men's Warehouse getting spanked. Guess middle class won't be able to afford to shop there anymore.
"You're gonna love the way you look."
at the job fair...
I guarantee it....or your fiat money back.
LOL! You are a funny little bastard. It is a shame you did not really shoot Roger Moore with the Golden Gun. It would have helped the Bond franchise.
Best Dressed Man at Walmart!
Best looking horse at the glue factory...
Men's Warehouse suits are cheap sh*t and the owner is a creepy tribe member.
They aren't buying new mattresses either.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TPX&ql=1
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SCSS&reco=1
Damn.
Guess it's not time to "go to the mattresses". Ouch.
....so if people aren't sleeping on their mattress, and they're not sleeping in their cheap suit...just where the hell are they sleeping??
My guess, at least for most of the ZHers is that they're sleeping soundly on their pm stash.
More people are choosing dumpsters.
http://www.tsasafety.com/news/peoplesleepingindumpsters.html
hi
slewie sez: is this funny or what? underground bunker made of shipping container accessed by artCarney-like manhole-from-above con-sealed in old shed which can be booby-trapped once, basically...
but a new shed can be put up from materials found in...dumpsters... ?
bye
I don't blame people for not buying new mattresses. You might accidentally throw out your old one with your life savings still stuffed in it.
See here
Sign of the times ;-)
Suits not required when you are unemployed.
Interesting because I just saw a commercial from Joseph A Bank about a sale tomorrow....2 suits for 1/2 the price of one.
http://www.josbank.com/
Long shovels and Carhartts.
I shop at Brooks Brothers exclusively. If you saw how I looked face and hair wise, you would lol. I think everyone wishes I would not shop there. I keep telling them: don't worry, I'm not a zombie.
So sad that your missing out on their latest Sales campaign blitz in my CNBS advertising region. LOL
Click
i stopped shopping there when i found out that a portion of my expenditures was going into barbara (dumb as a stump) boxer's campaign coffers. (and i used to shop there a lot).
If you want a good suit, buy Brooks Brothers. I have been a happy customer for over 17+ years. My closet suit contents will speak for itself.
warren buffett said US is not even in a recession...
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/2012-06-06/warren-buffett-recession-odds-low/55418314/1
cnbc says US 'could' become greece in 2037
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47700644
CNBS is off by about 24 years.
hey, baby_B!
haven't seen you around too much pirateGrrrl
i will troll your sweet young R&R PM heart with the directions to find the answer to my pop quiz, above: USTBonds: Black Hole Dynamics
you might be the first (again) and win a shot at another date w/ slewie... L0L!! hope yer well, and your friends and family, too...
Thanks for the updates from the commedy channels.
.
You'll find updates from Sleestak Magoo Munger on the cartoon channel.
No college degree, Fry Cook. Bachelor's Degree, Assistant Manager. Master's Degree, Manager. Ph.D., District Manager. Who says education doesn't pay.
Thank a professor.
...for including ketchup with the fries.
No shit -quit bitching. District managers positions pay $35-50K these days. +Get your PH'D , Go to McDonalds - work as a store manager making $20-30K each year -65-70 hours a week - for 15-20 years, and you just may get one of those District manager positions. Now granted, you may have to speak fluent mandarin Chinese and relocate to China - but -what the hell -who said success would be easy.
other than a massive population, and natural resources, exactly what wealth does China have? Just curious. It wouldn't happen to be.... itself one giant leg of the Ponzi?
If the US has been Bain'ed, China is about to become even worse: an abandoned mining town.
Fry cook student debt: $0
Assistant Mgr student debt: $40,000
Manager student debt: $65,000
District Manager student debt: $100,000
Who is teh smatezt det surf?
Well someone's gotta feed the richies.
That's the way capitalism works, broski. People with wealth want a service: the rest of us will service them.
Fry cook usually makes more per hour than Assistant Manager who gets to work 70 hours a week with no overtime.
where the fuck are the regulators to stomp the shit out of this complete farse and illegal market ramp today!?
Fuck you TBTF, CNBC/MSM and all Govt regulators! Eat shit and die!
Regulators? They are there to fascilitate vapor ramps, as well giving the public just enough of a false sense of security to dump the additional capital into the shark market....I mean stock market.
Dr. Richard Head said:
...and generate ad click revenue for porn site advertisers.
market.... lol
forget markets, it's all Merkels fault.