US Money Supply Surges Surges 33% in 4 Months - Gold To Follow?

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Fri, 10/21/2011 - 07:49 | 1796308 Irish66
Irish66's picture

"Printing large amounts of money"  says it all

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 07:53 | 1796319 paarsons
paarsons's picture

Good citizens of Metropolis!

Here's the truth.

We're all fucked.

Run to the hills.

http://geraldcelente.proboards.com

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 08:55 | 1796412 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

M1 money stock up 22.6% year over year and 19.4% YTD

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/M1.txt

 

M2 money stock up 10.3% year over year and 9.3% YTD

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/M2.txt

 

Not so bad at all.  Central planning is wise.  Repeat until it seems true.

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 09:10 | 1796537 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

The Fed will keep printing until moral improves.

How's it working so far?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 12:18 | 1797418 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

Buy timber and paper company equities.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 12:23 | 1797434 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

Copying is cheaper than printing.  Long Kinko's!

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 17:24 | 1796585 barkster
barkster's picture

...

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 07:54 | 1796324 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Money can't be printed but currency can.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 08:30 | 1796403 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

This is the 'Weimar Solution' which will lead to the 'Final Solution.' 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:37 | 1796957 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

nor can BTUs of energy

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 07:58 | 1796330 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

The world is drowning in paper.

We need a sequal to the film "Water World"... "Paper World"...

Print Ben, Print!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 08:11 | 1796355 bernorange
bernorange's picture

QE3 bitchez

www.pmbug.com

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 08:42 | 1796440 Beastmanager
Beastmanager's picture

Wowowoww, this is it! Deflationist short squeeze!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 09:39 | 1796632 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Hee, hee.  I don't think it's over just yet.  We are likely to continue to see deflation in some areas of the economy and inflation in others.  I think the reluctance to announce QE3 and bail out the EU banks shows they intend to stretch this out as long as possible.  But there are signs this is coming to an end.  In risk of repeating myself, I see those signs as:

  • Global economic based protests (over 1500 cities)
  • Step Two: The trade wars are beginning
  • Step Three:  Major military conflicts on the horizon
  • Major US and European banks at the brink of the cliff
  • There's a bank run on BOA
  • Gold refuses to stay below $1600, a clear sign that the margin hikes and manipulation were overdone and strong hands prevail and/or the price suppression mechanism is at the breaking point and can't push gold down any further without decoupling it from paper.
  • JPM silver shorts are greatly reduced and position limits will end the silver suppression game.
  • Desperation on the part of economic officials who have made themselves a laughing stock.  These guys didn't get to the top of the pyramid by ignoring their political capital.  Today, the biggest fishes are squandering that credibility.  End game is near.
  • Rapidly widening spreads in the PM markets
  • Operation Twist has turned into Operation Twisted (fail)
  • Foreign banks are dumping US treasuries.  The continuance of the USD as a safehaven is crumbling. 
  • Changing the circuit breakers to stop trading was a tell that they are about to leave the little guy holding the bag in what could be a limit down situation in stocks, where only algos get to sell during the first few minutes of trading each day 

I really don't think the Fed and the ECB will hyperinflate.  They need to boil the frog slowly, not stampede everyone into PMs.  Also, if they hyperinflate, there will be a political rebellion and the Fed and the major banks will be finished.  The ECB has replaced most of their foreign currency reserves with gold.  When the asset side of their balance sheet is fully purged, and the Fed hits its target gold acquisition, I believe they will have lost all motivation to continue kicking the can and we will get a new monetary policy based on some referrence to gold.

I really don't agree this will continue into 2013 as some on ZH have expressed.  Maybe if the game didn't change that would be so, but that's the problem with all the hyperinflation and deflation arguments, Ben and company are going to do what's good for TPTB.  That means they are going, to borrow a phrase from sailing, tack their way to their objective.  That objective is to bail out the banks, restore their balance sheets, say nobody saw it coming, and paint themselves as heroes for "saving the world."  Of course, that requires them to first destroy the balance sheets of the central banks by bailing out the major banks, which will destroy the finances of all the savers in fiat currencies, and then fill the asset side of their balance sheets with something they can inflate to balance out the expanded liability side of their books.  After the price inflation of that asset, they are instantly solvent, and anyone without that something  upon which the monetary system will be based, will instantly take a haircut without ever filling out a tax form.

The price of gold will rise when the central banks are positioned.  They are likely to crash paper prices immediately prior to the change.  The announcement will come after hours when the markets are closed.  There will be no opportunity to position oneself for the change unless you have physical, or you are willing to catch the knife when they drive prices down.

The central bankers are the only ones who know what is coming.  They are buying, and they are outright lying about gold.  So, even though this is all based on supposition, I don't see any other way for the central banks to survive this crisis. 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:35 | 1796953 pvzh
pvzh's picture

What you describe will lead to hyperinflation immediately. Economy is such a funny thing -- you cannot raise price of one thing / asset arbitrary to achieve your goal. I can tell you that from experience in USSR where economy was planned, and they tried to overvalue somethings because it believed to be a "luxury". For example, they raise prices on cars (50% -- 100%) overnight (the was done several times after WW2 with the same sequence of events after wards). Same day as announced other prices that are not directly controlled by the state ("farmers' markets") saw very similar increases and after minor adjustments remained there. USA is not USSR (not yet at least fully), so next step after gold jump, oil in the world markets will jump by the same percentage and will stay locked to gold. After that either rationing plus hyperinflation in the black market or just hyperinflation.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:49 | 1797030 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

hyperinflation is NOT something the government does or does not allow. It is a panic moment, whose precision point is hard to predict but still a rational and innevitable result of constant currency erosion. Hyperinflation is also a natural producer of deflation in certain long term items as all the money crowds up on the short end not wishing to take a ride longer than five minutes. That's Weimar and soon us.     

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:52 | 1797053 Chaffinch
Chaffinch's picture

Nicely put Smiddy. A damned sight more interesting than reading Goldcore's article!

I'm not sure about the end of paper gold though. Are they going to bring other paper markets down as well - paper oil, wheat, etc?

I take the point that a crazy amount of paper gold is traded, and there isn't the physical to back it, but that situation has existed for a long time, without a real problem, because trades can always be settled for cash. There isn't enough gold to back the paper, but there is always a counter party to claim from. If shorts get stopped out in a massive upwards move, then maybe market makers will end up so short they go bust... - would the CBs let this happen? Why not?

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 12:41 | 1797457 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

Smiddy,

 

The Fed and G20 central banks have hyperinflated over the past 20 years.  That is why you have a $100 trillion world bond market which is on the verge of puking.  When the bond market sluce gates break, you will see hyperinflation faster than you can say "tsunami" as the rush into real assets and general equities accelerates.

 

That is why you have all the "deflation" promotion on Bloomberg and CNBC.  The only deflation that we will see will be measured in the cost of goods in gold and silver money.  The cost of goods in fiat currency will then be best described by Jackie Gleason (if he was still with us).

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 13:43 | 1797727 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

I think we agree on that point.  We will continue to have inflation on the things we use and deflation on the assets we own, until the kick the can game comes to an end.  As you say, the size of the deluge when the sluce gates break could very well overwhelm the plans of the evil central bankers.  As far as I'm concerned, that's doubly good for holding physical gold.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 17:31 | 1798433 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

Smiddy,

 

I think that when we measure value of goods in fiat currency everything will increase in price as the currency devalues - some things will rise in price faster than others (i.e. gold, silver, food, etc.)

 

However, measured in terms of silver and gold (money) the price of things will deflate in price as silver and gold increase in value the fastest.  My take.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 14:29 | 1797930 Beastmanager
Beastmanager's picture

Too much faith on the central bankers have you, Skywalker

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 14:42 | 1797994 twotraps
twotraps's picture

really awesome, an article within the article, had to read it twice!  have a good weekend

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 13:55 | 1797788 Elliott Eldrich
Elliott Eldrich's picture

Once velocity picks up inflation is going to skyrocket. I don't see any other way this can go.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 07:53 | 1796318 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Silver more so.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 08:03 | 1796341 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

People who short silver are insane.

http://www.24hgold.com/english/interactive_chart.aspx?title=COMEX%20WARE...

Under 1 billion cash cleans the whole place out.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:01 | 1797097 Chaffinch
Chaffinch's picture

Yes Quinvarius I agree that they are insane.

The problem is:

1) You and I lack the necessary billion dollars

2) Those who do have a billion dollars have tried and failed, because Comex does not fight fair

3) A major flaw in the plan to clean out Comex is that buyers of futures contracts cannot insist on delivery. Sellers can insist on delivery!

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:10 | 1797139 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Got your PVC Bitchezz,if it goes to $3k+ look for the Confiscation orders to come down.

NO way they allow prudent, and smart phys holders to kame thos profits.

It didutes the 1%. And they cannot have that.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 07:53 | 1796320 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

This is going to lead to chronic inflation, don't care how low its velocity is. 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 07:55 | 1796326 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

No question about inflation coming but also deflation. Biflation.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 07:58 | 1796331 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Inflation for the stuff we need like food and energy that have highly inelastic supply curves. Deflation for all the stuff we don't need like durable goods. This off course will skew the CPI much to the glee of the Bernank

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 08:01 | 1796336 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

It won't matter how much the CPI is 'skewed' if Benny and Obummer fail to feed people... Real fire works start when people have nothing to eat.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:03 | 1796715 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

And that's when your stash acquired since 1968 goes nuclear, because that's one of the few things that will force the Fed and the ECB to make their move.  That's when paper gold crashes and they try to scare everyone out of the paper market and then announce, after the markets are closed, that we are entertaining a new monetary standard, backed by gold, just not gold valued at today's price, because that wouldn't bail them out.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 09:52 | 1796770 barkster
barkster's picture

everyone will be fed. why, monsanto will probably even be delivering to everyone's doorstep. "want a side of roundup with that soy/female hormone burger, sir?"

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 10:13 | 1796841 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Soylent green is so much tastier than soylent yellow.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 08:09 | 1796344 silver500
silver500's picture

This is correct, inflation for necessities and items that are produced quickly with lower capital investment required for production.

Inflation (Phase 1 inflation):
Food
Water
Drugs
Clothes
Bus fares
Energy

Middle (Phase 2 inflation):
Computers
Washing Machines
Furniture

Deflation (Phase 3 inflation):
Real Estate
Cars
Industrial machinery

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:05 | 1797101 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

yup. Not sure about furniture since you don't really need new stuff that badly, its technology does not turn over like the microchip and its intimately tied to real estate  

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:36 | 1797272 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Lots of people will be very happy to repair/restore your old furniture at a fraction of it's replacement cost.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 08:10 | 1796354 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Gonzalo Lyra wrote an awesome article about what hyper inflation looked like in South America.  That is pretty much what he described.  Prices on a lot of things actually dropped very far relative other things with more utility.  For example, you could trade a home for a car.  And knowing what it will look like, I think there is a good chance the CPI will barely show it.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 08:39 | 1796430 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

There's something missing here that is not discussed: DigiDollars.

Hyperinflation is a political event, not monetary. Funding for the PDs will continue but not for the so called 'real' economy. Financial bubbles forming are not a sign of hyperinflation.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 09:22 | 1796588 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Hyper inflation occurs when citizens lose faith in the currency; ie, that the currency they hold today will purchase the same amout of bread tomorrow as it does today.

You can call that a political or monetary phenomena... Congress has abdicated it's responsibility, handing it over to the Fed.

The Fed, which is owned by bankers, is supposed to be independent of the US Gov... Do you believe this?

When the Fed and other central banks routinely intervene in all asset markets how can one say that 'hyper inflation is a political event'?

Not buying that one.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 11:16 | 1797170 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

exactly

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 19:30 | 1799033 fnord88
fnord88's picture

Agreed. If anything I would say hyperinflation is a psychological event. When people believe their money will buy less tomorrow than it does today, velocity will pick up and it will spiral out of control. An important thing to remember is massive printing occurs AFTER hyperinflation has started, not BEFORE.

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 08:18 | 1796373 silver500
silver500's picture

There are two main factors at work here:

1. As the economic situation becomes worse people must spend a higher proportion of their income on necessaties

2. The low interest rates and loose monetary policy that cause the inflation also causes too much debt funded investment into capital intensive production.  Therefore the supply of goods with a long production cycle will be too high and the price of these goods will fall in the medium term

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 09:55 | 1796780 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

I don't think TPTB are going to have the luxery of stretching this out over a long period of time after they hyper print.  When the real printing begins (already has) the clock will begin ticking on how long they can go before they announce a new monetary system.  The end of the world deflation and inflation arguments assume the central banks don't have a plan to stick us with the bill and survive.  They are not supermen, but they have shown themselves to be very competent jugglers.  If we reach the wheelbarrow point, the central banks are dead and the New World Order will be swept away.  They know this.  TPTB have no intention of being unseated from power, and I'm not optimistic enough to believe they will be.

TPTB decide what is money.  For a time, that thing was paper.  Now, we are returning to gold as money (real money) and when they have enough of it, or their hand is forced, they will tell us gold is money (again).  The plan is for them to be sitting on a pile of it when that announcement is made, and them tax everyone without gold by ramping the price of gold.

And everyone lived happily ever after.

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 12:00 | 1797357 Soda Popinski
Soda Popinski's picture

Agreed.  I also think its fair that we start calling the bernankster 'Bicurious Ben'

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 07:55 | 1796325 Gamblor
Gamblor's picture

Ron Paul has it nailed. Gold may rise, but the real heights will be in silver - it's what the man on the street can afford. 

I got one of these back in change from my Chinese food delivery last night.  I would make sure they were out of circulation if I was the government - we wouldn't people asking questions about what the heading means...

 

http://instagr.am/p/Q14hL/

 

"Silver certificate?  What does that mean?"

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 08:09 | 1796352 MonsterBox
MonsterBox's picture

More interesting is "Who printed the "Silver Certificate"? Not the Federal Reserve, but the US Treasury...

And "Why did the Treasury print them for those several years in the 1960's?"  JFK was trying to do an Andrew Jackson.

just read this piece on JFK Executive Order 11110

http://www.john-f-kennedy.net/executiveorder11110.htm

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 09:09 | 1796528 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

How did that work out for JFK? 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 09:24 | 1796603 pods
pods's picture

Many have a different opinion about EO 11110, including G. Edward Griffin, of TCFJI fame.  That order merely delegated the president's authority to the sec of the treasury.

http://www.freedomforceinternational.org/freedomcontent.cfm?fuseaction=jfkmyth

pods

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 08:14 | 1796365 s2man
s2man's picture

niiiice

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