US Needs To Generate 261,200 Jobs Per Month To Return To Pre-Depression Employment By End Of Obama Second Term

Tyler Durden's picture

Every few months we rerun an analysis of how many jobs the US economy has to generate to return to the unemployment rate as of December 2007 when the Great Financial Crisis started, by the end of Obama's potential second term in November 2016. This calculation takes into account the historical change in Payroll and includes the 90,000/month natural growth to the labor force, and extrapolates into the future. And every time we rerun this calculation, the number of jobs that has to be created to get back to baseline increases: First it was 245,500 in April, then 250,000 in June, then 254,000 in July. As of today, following the just announced "beat" of meager NFP expectations, this number has has just risen to an all time high 261,200. This means that unless that number of jobs is created each month for the next 5 years, America will have a higher unemployment rate in October 2016 than it did in December 2007. How realistic is it that the US economy can create 16.2 million jobs in the next 62 months? We leave that answer up to the US electorate.

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warchopper's picture
  1. No problem. We just find 261,200 people who want to strike, and then hire them back.
flacon's picture

Tyler, you should turn these series of charts into an animated gif - showing the progression. 

Leopold B. Scotch's picture

We can solve this problem by simply printing money and paying people to do stuff... Any stuff: digging ditches, prepping for alien invasions, running in place.  Anything. Poof! ~~ Labor problem, gone. ~~

And GDP will be up.  'Caus job and economic activity quality is meaningless. Quantity is everything.  Simple Nuff.

Three cheers for GDP.  Hip Hip Hooray!, GDP!! 

GDP, I wish I could make out with you. You're so hot.

~ Paul Krugman on Leopold's login.


GeneMarchbanks's picture

You, sir, are batshit yet I completely understand you. Which means I'm also batshit...

trav7777's picture

I dunno if Bama can do it...I mean they gave somebody ELSE the Nobel Peace Prize.  WTF.

SiliconJon's picture

Issuing +$261 Trillion in debt should do the trick, yes?

Caggge's picture

We could build cities like China that no one will live in. I guess with all the excess real estate inventory out there.....we have already done that.

Bunga Bunga's picture

Chinese are very smart. They just build more homes and sell them to aliens when Krugman wants to fight.

km4's picture

Prez hopium sez YES WE CAN ;)

LongSoupLine's picture

ok, hear me out, 'cause I've got a winner...

I'm going to start a mid-wesern solar company and ramp up MAJOR hiring.  I expect huge huge backing from...well, lets just say a "slam dunk high level supporter".  All I have to do is take 20% of this "supporters" money (where ever he gets that from) and put it back into some sort of obscure "re-election fund".  Anyway, seems like a win-win...who's in??

papaswamp's picture

The problem is they didn't create any jobs. The size of the laborforce shrank by 322,000 (not seasonally adjusted) but the BLS added 500,000 workers in their seasonally adjusted number. The rise is total fabrication and the maket is running with it. No one reads they just react to headlines and rumors.

Josh Randall's picture

Oh Papaswamp, you're young and you've got your health, what do you want with a job?

Dick Darlington's picture

And Friday rumor mill in full speed:

rumour: MS and Wells Fargo to merge

firstdivision's picture


HD's picture

 We'll need more than that - get him to the ocean...

sabra1's picture

Buffett wants to merge with Janet Napolitano! yuuuuuuuck!

Dr. Hannibal Lecter's picture

ObaMao second term?  Who said anything about a second term.

Rainman's picture

.....even the ever-blue Californicators are pissed at O as Holder fruitlessly tries to stomp out reefer madness in the State.

Henry Chinaski's picture

A new front in Obama's war on jobs.

Leopold B. Scotch's picture

This IS Job protection -- for the Drug War Industrial Compex.  That's an industry of $ hundreds of billions at stake.  Can't cut off those parasites through legalization, now, can we?

Henry Chinaski's picture

Decriminalization of pot would make an interesting economic study.  Increase agricultural production and employment. Roll back the bloated police state govenment.  Liberty works for me.

jo6pac's picture

Yep, got to fill those corp. jails.

thunderchief's picture

Stop comparing yesterdays America to todays. 

It's not fair to todays America.

Your making us all feel just downright Poor!

Caviar Emptor's picture

Thanks for agreeing. Yesterday's US economy is squarely in the rear view mirror. Anyone who ain't hip is living in their own lil dream world

Cash_is_Trash's picture

Welcome to the new normal.

The nation is clearly getting poorer.

Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

Insource China! Case closed.

Cash_is_Trash's picture

Open the immigration spigots?

Hell, just bring in all the Mexicans.

PulauHantu29's picture

No one even wants a house anymore:


Home ownership sees biggest drop since Great Depression: CNN Money


Too expensive and renting is very flexible and cheap....





firstdivision's picture

Actually right now is the perfect time to buy.  A house is a physical asset at least.  The problem is that the general public is still stuck in the debt they racked up in 2006/2007 to really be able to afford it, ontop of the fact that they overpaid for their property or maxed out home equity lines.

tmosley's picture

No, the perfect time to buy is when they are priced like Detroit is now, possibly during the depths of a hyperinflationary crisis (real estate values can and do fall in a nominal sense during hyperinflation--especially if the government adopts rent control measures).

firstdivision's picture

Actually, and sadly saying this, I am starting to think that housing is finally starting to form a bottom.  The Case-Shiller index showed better number for places that people want to live (ex. Cleveland, Detroit, Midwest in general).  Those areas will be the first to bottom out, the rest of the US will follow a few months to a year behind.  Besides, wouldn't you rather own before the US buys up all the available housing to force people to be serfs?

kito's picture

if the u.s. wasnt on its way to 15 trillion in debt, and the worlds banks werent worthless, then yes, all things being equal, we would be at the bottom now. however, when the mother of all black swans hits, that bottom will become bottomless. wait till 2013 to see how this all shakes out before you invest in something that may go to cash value.

firstdivision's picture

When the mother of all black swans hits, I want to own where I live. 

kito's picture

"own" as in own or "own" as in owe?

Leopold B. Scotch's picture

Bottoming?  Are you kidding? 

The clearing price for housing has not been achieved in any way whatsoever.  We have a horribly intervened mortgage market and even then houses are not moving.

Have the Fed return its $2 trillion of mortgages to the market for finding their true clearing prices, and we'll find out how houses are priced in a naturally occurring market through real price discovery of interest rates.

GAAP should also require banks to end the opaque disclosure techniques the industry currently uses to keep investors guessing about the quality of the balance sheets.  Yeah, banking stocks are taking it on the chin right now beause of the lack of clarity, but just the same, they're unddoubtedly hiding $ hundreds of millions of insolvent mortgage housing inventory, keeping all those homes off the foreclosure lists where they would otherwise end up absent the ability to not disclose.

Then have the FEd end its price fixing of interest rates at this absurdly low level where it forces savers to subsidize borrowers, which in turn keeps houses over priced and not clearing.

We'd then see the free fall in housing return and housing prices would bottom out for real, and very quickly.  Inventory would then be priced at its real clearing price, with lending at its real lending price.

Yes, the market might stabilize with the current intervention, but in the end all we'er doing is propping up a distortion.  WE're price fixing and forcing the misallocation of scarce wealth into fossilizing housing prices above their natural clearing rate. 

Price fixing only creates more problems. End it.

Messianic's picture

If you're paying with cash (i.e. you have the money laying around to buy the house outright as opposed to taking out a large mortgage), now is definitely not the time to buy.  Prices still havent' fallen to the level they should when interest rates (must) rise.

Once either 1) interest rates are sky-high to return us to normality, putting downward pressure on actual home values; or 2) hyperinflation has eaten everything yet only weakly affected home prices; that would be the time to purchase a home to get the best deal.

But to pay now, in pure cash, for a home?  Absolutely not - that's silliness. Now is a fairly good time (we don't need to catch daggers if we know what we want) to buy a home if you plan to get a low rate fixed rate mortgage and you plan to actually live in the home for 30+ years. If your plan is to buy a house via a mortgage and rely on the government to protect your home based on provisions that protect at least one home in the case you file bankruptcy, I have to say that's not a very good plan.

But it's not a good time to use housing as an investment, ESPECIALLY in the US.  There are some good purchases in Asian markets which have decent yields, but those are probably going to get hammered soon. Housing in the US is and will continue to be a poor investment for many years.

trav7777's picture

you don't own it so long as you have to pay taxes on it

Henry Chinaski's picture

There is no housing market.  There are bazillions of submarkets.  Local influences are usually more important that macro factors, especially for single family homes. 

Messianic's picture

It seems like "Housing is a regional phenomenon" was Bernanke's argument too...Or just that national pressures don't override regional ones.

7/1/05 – Interview on CNBC
INTERVIEWER: Tell me, what is the worst-case scenario? We have so many economists coming on our air saying ‘Oh, this is a bubble, and it’s going to burst, and this is going to be a real issue for the economy.’ Some say it could even cause a recession at some point. What is the worst-case scenario if in fact we were to see prices come down substantially across the country?

BERNANKE: Well, I guess I don’t buy your premise. It’s a pretty unlikely possibility. We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So, what I think what is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize, might slow consumption spending a bit. I don’t think it’s gonna drive the economy too far from its full employment path, though.

OneEyedJack's picture


trav7777's picture

Detroilet is like 86% YOU really want to live there?

May as well move to Africa.

cowdiddly's picture


Gene8696's picture

Does that take into account the numbers of ZH readers who are dropping out of the "job market", because they are netting 10% a month on the swings?

Kyle Reese's picture

Let's do the census every month.

Maybe we don't need more jobs, but more affordable housing. Go back to single income families.

Leopold B. Scotch's picture

What we need is a good war.  Or plague. No better solution to excess labor than death.

Hey?!? Who said central planning is a clean business?  One must break a few eggs to make an omelet, after all.

V in PA's picture

It's almost like we are living in 1936. A world wide depression, but yet, most everyone was blissfully unware of the nightmare to come.

Look around people. The gears of a world war have been turning for some time now. WWIII is right around the corner.

Kina's picture

It appears to me that TPTB have gotten themselves in a position were the US is now always just a moment away form losing total control and being plunged into chaos. It is walking a high wire miles above the earth in gale force winds and everybody is wondering if Europe might lay just a little bit of greece on the wire.


When they lose control there will be no stopping the dominoes that fall all the way through markets.