This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

US Needs To Generate 262,500 Jobs Monthly To Return To Pre-Depression Employment By End Of Obama Second Term

Tyler Durden's picture


We will simply copy and paste, with the appropriate adjustments, the form text we put up after each and every NFP report calculating the number of people that have to be added by the end of a hypothetical second Obama term. Using the October boilerplate: "Every few months we rerun an analysis of how many jobs the US economy has to generate to return to the unemployment rate as of December 2007 when the Great Financial Crisis started, by the end of Obama's potential second term in November 2016. This calculation takes into account the historical change in Payroll and includes the 90,000/month natural growth to the labor force, and extrapolates into the future. And every time we rerun this calculation, the number of jobs that has to be created to get back to baseline increases: First it was 245,500 in April, then 250,000 in June, then 254,000 in July [then 261,200 in October]. As of today, following the just announced "beat" of meager NFP expectations, this number has has just risen to an all time high 261,200 262,500. This means that unless that number of jobs is created each month for the next 5 years, America will have a higher unemployment rate in October 2016 than it did in December 2007. How realistic is it that the US economy can create 16.2 million jobs in the next 6261 months? We leave that answer up to the US electorate."


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:31 | Link to Comment writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture




RiskManager 3 Eval/UAT/Staging Rollback: Delay of Financial Crisis Stress Tests Release

Yesterday's RiskManager 3 Eval/UAT/Staging release which included new Financial Crisis Stress tests has been rolled back to the previous RiskManager 3 version due to technical problems. Thus, the new stress tests can not be accessed in the current RiskManager 3 Eval/UAT/Staging version. RiskMetrics is evaluating this issue, and will alert clients when the new stress tests will be available.



They couldn't believe the results coming out of testing! - they are just not believable...

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:44 | Link to Comment paarsons
paarsons's picture

It won't happen.

But it ain't Obama's fault. Don't get me wrong.  He's a cunt.

However, this crap's been building for 23 years.  No shit.

I miss Paul Craig Roberts.  Now that's a fucking economist.

Where the fuck did he go?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:01 | Link to Comment bullonparade
bullonparade's picture

I fail to see why job creation is approached like some kindof miracle. You dont wave your wand, and jobs dont just appear. Job creation is a function of consumerism and national spending, not of so called "job creators". If there was any such job creator is was the us office and its foreign backloans to stimulate spending. Als maybe we need to see where fixed unemployment is before we adress conjunctural unemployment, it seems everybody is just floundering to look for the golden ticket that doenst exist. Deleveraging and Reality sucks for the economy, true story.

I juts hope people realise we all contributed to this situation by desinterest and a laissez faire attitude towards general economic constraint. If these job results lead to Obama losing against the republican retards i will move to some tahitian island awaiting the end of days. Because honestly i doubt those Gop candidates believe in anything thats real.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:28 | Link to Comment Tom Servo102
Tom Servo102's picture

you better hurry back to Zucotti Park, I hear Security is tearing down your tent and stealing your stash!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:31 | Link to Comment Hard1
Hard1's picture

" the end of Obama second term"   LOL!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:32 | Link to Comment MobBarley
MobBarley's picture

You might think that with that recent 1.5 billion infusion of cash into the

Obama re-election campaign funds he would run and win. Alas, the PTB

have pre-selected one Michelle 'Mommy Dearest' Bachmann as your next





Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:59 | Link to Comment V in PA
V in PA's picture

Yeah. I would have preferred 2016. Thinking of him having a second term makes me sick.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:30 | Link to Comment El Yunque
El Yunque's picture

You force 45 million new customers into a healthcare system that's pretty well got the aftermarket parts for performance (money pit), you'll get a few guys like me building parking lots here instead of Zhengzhou. I still don't understand why the fuck no one sees the upside potential of the healthcare racket as an economic fucking fussion reactor; it ain't like customized KFC hearts ain't going to need a little work here.

Most of us will refuse to fly to China for a prostate exam, although nothing is impossible at this stage.

If you can't get rich selling health care to the same fat Americans Herb Cain got rich selling pizzas to, with the mobius strip of tax dollars cycling in and out of the fucking machine, then you can't get rich, period.

45 million Americans needing healthcare and all of it's component parts should generate about 135,000,000 jobs, that's 3 people for every person in the system, which kind of equates roughly with the way the healthcare racket works today.

There's your job mill - the whole frigging enchilada (don't say that in the clinic).

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:35 | Link to Comment PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

One problem is they seek to create more paper pushers instead of "real jobs".....the real job creation is taking place overseas and in Mexico where manufacturing, etc is growing like gangbusters. Pushing paper---CDS, bonds, etc--is only so good.....then you need real production ....

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:06 | Link to Comment sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

So those jobs are going to places where there is no freedom - except for the businesses?

Apparently the markets hate freedom when it is not solely in the hands of business, but also in the hands of regular individuals.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:39 | Link to Comment karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture



Just hear what they say.....


Markets HATE uncertainty, why it's a black letter article of faith among your free types.

So, fascist it shall be.

Hail mighty market of stability.

Only dopes fall for it, but there is no shortage of them types these daze.


Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:31 | Link to Comment transaccountin
transaccountin's picture

we dont need no jobs; usa is walden two: nirvana

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:35 | Link to Comment Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Leverage up the Birth Death Adjustment by 3X and presto! Today's NPF number would have been north of 300k. According to these politicians, leveraging is the solution to everything.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:58 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

265,000 jobs x 60 (months) = 16,000,000


Sorry...I was thinking out loud, mathematically.

p.s. - I really believe that number is off, and that it should be closer to 17,800,000, which would be closer to just under 300,000 jobs created per month, for 60 months consecutively (but I am quibbling over details, I do realize). 

More importantly, the threat is that when the 2nd wave strikes, it's wholly possible that we begin to see -200k prints on a monthly basis in early 2012, so....yeeeaaahhh. Double dips SUCK. They're like getting hit with a tsunami after the earthquake.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:08 | Link to Comment 55 men
55 men's picture


Everything looks great according to Yahoo news. Yes, I am so pumped everything is turning around, thank you Yahoo for telling it like it is. //Sarcasm off//


Employers add 80K jobs, rate dips to 9 pct.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:31 | Link to Comment junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Challenge accepted

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:42 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Only if re-elected. The administration needs to be inspected and then rejected.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:33 | Link to Comment Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

USA needs more TSA 'workers' to monitor highways, buses, trains, and residential homes.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:34 | Link to Comment larry david
larry david's picture

How dare you point out the truth. Damn you bloggers. Someone might read this and have a critical thought and then what? Confidence may be lost, jobs will not be created.  Again, how dare you!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:34 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

May we can pay people to fill the Grand Canyon - but what would we fill it with?  Maybe Ol' Ben has a idea.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:35 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture




I've once see a guy jump from a 2 story building and lived to tell! HE LIVED TO TELL!! Amazing!

So that's why I think Obama still has a shot at creating all those jobs.


Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:35 | Link to Comment Roland99
Roland99's picture

Time to open more Starbucks and McDonald's!


ooo...or some Ebay stores!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:36 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

ooo...or some Ebay stores!



Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:38 | Link to Comment Roland99
Roland99's picture

I'm still hanging my Hopium on Groupon.


And, hey, check this:


 Starbucks shares rise nearly 5%, best on S&P 500


Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:40 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

US top companies make things no one actually needs. 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:42 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

LNKD, Pandora, Groupon, Netflicker, etc, etc.

What's old is new again, bitchez!


The Winners of the New World - TheStreet

  The Winners of the New World By Jim Cramer February 29, 2000 - 09:42 AM EST

Editor's Note: James J. Cramer is the keynote speaker at the 6th Annual Internet and Electronic Commerce Conference and Exposition, held today at the Jacob Javits Center in New York City. We're running the full text of that speech here.

You want winners? You want me to put my Cramer Berkowitz hedge fund hat on and just discuss what my fund is buying today to try to make money tomorrow and the next day and the next? You want my top 10 stocks for who is going to make it in the New World? You know what? I am going to give them to you. Right here. Right now.

OK. Here goes. Write them down -- no handouts here!: 724 Solutions (SVNX), Ariba (ARBA), Digital Island (ISLD), Exodus (EXDS), (INSP), Inktomi (INKT), Mercury Interactive (MERQ), Sonera (SNRA), VeriSign (VRSN) and Veritas Software (VRTS).

We are buying some of every one of these this morning as I give this speech. We buy them every day, particularly if they are down, which, no surprise given what they do, is very rare. And we will keep doing so until this period is over -- and it is very far from ending. Heck, people are just learning these stories on Wall Street, and the more they come to learn, the more they love and own! Most of these companies don't even have earnings per share, so we won't have to be constrained by that methodology for quarters to come.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:35 | Link to Comment Ensane
Ensane's picture

Alot of college degrees going to waste.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:36 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Maybe the CIA can recruit more Good Americans to play the role of "Big Brother".

And I'm not referring to the reality teevee show, either.

He may or may not be watching you, but Big Brother is reading your every mobile or online thought.

As if you ever believed otherwise.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:49 | Link to Comment Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

I hope they create a honeypot blog and catch those old homegrown terrorist with some good granny-nazi porn.


Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:37 | Link to Comment Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

maybe we can leverage the birth/death model?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:36 | Link to Comment larry david
larry david's picture

JEF plunging again...

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:46 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

...and recovering in a straight line, natural healthy looking chart.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:37 | Link to Comment Surly Bear
Surly Bear's picture

Go ahead, show me your 'O' face.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:55 | Link to Comment bonderøven-farm ass
bonderøven-farm ass's picture

Would that be 'O' for Ohio, perhaps.......?

Green sharts me azz.........

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:42 | Link to Comment 1835jackson
1835jackson's picture

Ben Bernanke told the media on Wednesday in regard to the occupy Wall Street protest that if it was not for the fed's intervention the entire financial system would have collapsed....I say...LET THE MOTHER FUCKER COLLASPE! It's a fraud, sham; hocus pocus, a massive ponzi scheme. The most disturbing thing about that press conference was the palpable fear in the room the reporters knew they were addressing chairsatan and they had better be careful about what they say.


Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:41 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That's only 8,750 jobes per day. Surely we can print enough money to do that.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:56 | Link to Comment Mitzibitzi
Mitzibitzi's picture

You can do it without printing anything. In fact it's the only way you CAN do it...

Unfortunately firing the whole nanny state / fascist bureaucracy that creates the bullshit regulations, permits, tariffs and stealth taxes that prevent new businesses from springing up and established businesses from hiring more workers will put about as many people on the dole as the lack of BS interference gets off it. Net change in employment somewhere around zero.

We should still do it anyway, as most of those guys could learn something from having to do a real job! Plus, the new workers will be paying net positive taxes, in some cases at least. Working for .gov can't be taxation positive by definition.

But it ain't gonna happen. You WILL get widespread civil disorder before the .gov leeches willingly give up their easy ride.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 19:03 | Link to Comment Mitzibitzi
Mitzibitzi's picture

I take it two govt employees / paid shills were reading the above? Get a proper job, assholes!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:42 | Link to Comment vegas
vegas's picture

Good luck hitting that target. I have a better chance picking up a rock and trying to hit the moon.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:53 | Link to Comment bahaar
bahaar's picture

Develped world is losing jobs to mainly automation.  Jobs not lost to automation is off-shored.  This has been going on for past 30 years.  In the 80s, US debt was low and therefore it could borrow and plough large sums of money into new cutting edge technology.  The new technology in turn created new jobs in the US masking the loss of older (manufacturing) jobs.  But job loss due to automation /off-shoring only got faster and faster until job creation due to new technology couldn't keep pace.  also new technology requires investment of large sums of money but US cannot borrow anymore because of it's accumulating liabilities.  Emerging market will go only so far.  The money they earn will be used to uplift their very poor population.  They cannot invest large sums of money into reasearch and development.  Of course Wall Street have done their bit by misusing whatever money US accumulated.  Obama may not be the greatest of leaders but I can't see what any President can do.  So unless we have some kind of plague which kills off the dead-wood (older generation) in one big swipe, developed world is in for depression and will be followed by emerging markets.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:13 | Link to Comment Mitzibitzi
Mitzibitzi's picture

The wife said much the same thing last night, as it happens.

And while I, personally, wouldn't engage in massive depopulation (particularly of the elderly and otherwise non-productive) to sort the problem out for the remainder, I'm not so sure TPTB / NWO crowd have my morals. They're already hideously rich and powerful and still want even more, for one thing. Which I'm sure tells you something about their personalities, or lack thereof?

Fact is, the birth rate in most countries is pretty low, while the elderly are living longer than ever. Simple arithmetic tells you that can't continue indefinitely. But if the governments of the developed and developing world engage in a 'drop a sprog for dollars! (or more likely SDRs)' drive to boost the birth rate to pay for it with taxes, we simply reach the carrying capacity of the planet all the sooner. And there are no jobs for those sproglings to do anyway.

Inevitably, we're going to reduce the population of this rock to the Georgia Guidestones level, whether we want to or not. War, Famine, Pestilence and plain old Death have always been the simplest way to adjust demographics, whether inflicted deliberately on the unsuspecting populace or with a helping hand from that bitch, Mother Nature.


Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:48 | Link to Comment TrulyBelieving
TrulyBelieving's picture
Consider this, Tech's and automation have never destroyed jobs or wealth creation. Example, would you rather use a wooden plough pulled behind an ox or a deisel tractor to plant your crop, and which do you think more productive? Jobs are leaving the US more likely because of tax burden and over-regulation. See anyone start a new car company, or telephone or computer or anything new company? Try to start up even a small business, EPA, FDA, or any of the myriad of government agencies will be on you and 'eat out your substanance'.  All of this by design, with the goal to empower the politicians, make more rich the banks, by taking what is rightfully the people's and diminishing their role as nothing more than servitude. Hope you like your new role in this scheme.
Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:52 | Link to Comment karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

are "free trade" "agreements", regulation?


Are they a tax?

If you "pull a plow" and grow your own are you more productive than if you die eating some Chinese crap or maybe not getting any Chinese crap to eat after their market shuts you out?


It's never been easier to start a biz, tons of money and peeps begging for a place to go.

You seem a bit "basement" oriented.


p.s. true believers are always the first to fail.






Fri, 11/04/2011 - 19:46 | Link to Comment TrulyBelieving
TrulyBelieving's picture

Never made the comparison of growing my own food with buying from Chinese.   p.s.  true unbelievers never know they don't succeed.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 12:58 | Link to Comment bahaar
bahaar's picture

For every one job technology created it probably killed 10 jobs.  That may not have been apparent in the West until now because technology created jobs in the West and killed jobs in the rest of the world. Take your example--- tractors were made in the West (and therefore created jobs in the West's factory).  And when tractors got exported to the rest of the world, landowners laid off farm workers in those parts of the world.  How else do you think filthy rich India and China became dirt poor in the dawn of industrial era?Tchnology made / is going ot make a few very very rich and the rest very very poor. 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 19:30 | Link to Comment TrulyBelieving
TrulyBelieving's picture

 Every one job created by technology kills about 10 jobs. I guess the invention of electricity, gasoline engines, and the host of things that are now made from just these 2 things must have really set us back a bit. Just imagine how many jobs would be available if we hadn't experienced just these 2 advances. Yea, now I see your point.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:57 | Link to Comment TrulyBelieving
TrulyBelieving's picture

We are witnessing 'fundemental transformation' as promised. The playbook, Rules for Radicals. All going according to plan, the destruction of a once free people, an inside job. I believe this is the last chapter, the counter-revolution having gained much momentum with opposition just about non-existent. Barring a miracle, it's the end folks.    

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:01 | Link to Comment moriarty
moriarty's picture

If he gets the second term what will he care?

He will be yet another ex president wandering the world on a generous stipend from the tax payer charging exorbitant fees to anyone willing to listen to his rhetoric.

If he is truly concerned about his legacy for the people he would not be acting out the placemen role that he is.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:03 | Link to Comment Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

Homeland Security is hiring.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:05 | Link to Comment curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

Instead of concentrating on creating jobs to save the economy we need to concentrate of increasing "real" wages for those who currently hold jobs.


Instead of concentrating on saving under water houses, we need to think about saving those people who are current on their homes, but are deeply under water.  Why fix a problem that will just come up again in 6 months.....


I am sofucking sick and tired of CONGRESS worrying about the wrong thing.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:10 | Link to Comment Sathington Willougby
Sathington Willougby's picture

Ask Krugman how to magick jobs out of thin air.  Just consume aliens and vote for community dotardinizers.  That's how.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:15 | Link to Comment Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

What no one talks about much is how small businesses (the leading job creators) were started in the past.

Not so long ago, small business owners could use cash advances on their credit cards to cover some short term costs. Now most credit cards only allow cash advances of about 5% of the credit card's limit. So there is now no easily obtainable short term liquidity.

Small business owners also historically used home equitity as collateral to start their companies. Today a homeowner is more likely to be upside down in a mortgage.

That's why jobs are not being created.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:14 | Link to Comment mr.5280
mr.5280's picture

I love seeing these, although it's kind of depressing.

Just as a thought, not trying to ruin this data (because it is accurate and shows the economic shit reality we are in) I will point out how distorted the government printed numbers can be...

We don't truly have to add a single job to get the headline unemployment rate down to Dec2007 levels [as measured by the U-3/U-6 rates]...  The only thing that needs to happen is fewer layoffs and all these folks falling off the rolls.  26-Weeks they will be off the U-3 (and so the unemployment rate will "drop" by the ignorant man's judgement).  After the 99th week, they are off the u-6 (reflecting a decline in that number).

Does that reflect a better economy?  Fuck no.  We will still have 1 in 6 on food stamps and true unemployment of 20-23% (and counting with each college/higherEd class that comes out jobless).

That being said - there is no way in hell we will be adding 262,500 jobs a month... Can anyone tell me when that has ever happend in history?


Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:15 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

the scariest numbers of the article.............


second term in November 2016

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:18 | Link to Comment Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

People find a way and when the government and bankers get in the way of creating a people and employment friendly environment 300 million entrepeneurs pop up and maybe their title is: gang member, crack dealer, whore, welfare mother, baby sitter, day laborer, farm stand owner, friday loan specialist and such, but people find a way ... and collect off the government at the same time.

IMO, to project the current trend out 30 years we end up with an environment having: No state or local govrnments (to speak of), just a fascist federal police state, a handful of mega companies that have gobbled everything else, a controlling elite running a handfull of banks ... and a gray economy that dwarfs the official economy. THIRD WORLD WE BE THERE!.

The question is whether these are intended or unintended consequences?!?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:20 | Link to Comment the 300000000th...
the 300000000th percent's picture

Soooo in the interest of the "jobs" numbers be better re deploy all of those troops he is gonna pull out of Iraq to say, maybe, Iran?? 


Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:28 | Link to Comment PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

U.S. budget deficit second-highest on record

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:51 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



When does the number of folks that have fallen OFF the unemployment rolls surpass the number still on them?  Do we have a chart for that projection? 

Where's the pistol-wielding chimp with the 99 weeks ago was...?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:22 | Link to Comment TexasAggie
TexasAggie's picture

I also like the way some of the lsm is stating this means employment situation is improving because the unemployment rate is going down.  With the way the lsm is going, very shortly some of them will be included in these numbers.


Fri, 11/04/2011 - 12:08 | Link to Comment Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

Sadly it is pretty simple. 

Thera are too many workers in this world and not enough work.  The only solution is for all the workers of the world is either death or slavery.

The world's future is either the starvation of Zimbabwe where the 99% stole the property of the 1% and promptly starved to death, or North Korea where everyone has a job, is enslaved, and starving to death.

I challenge anyone to produce a future that will lead to anything else.

Death to the workers of the world.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 13:24 | Link to Comment Dr. Nancy
Dr. Nancy's picture

All that's happening is predictable, as there are 7 stages that any major economy goes through. Those who know how it works profit & massive wealth is transferred to them. Several months ago I learned this information from a millionaire whose site I found & am sharing it with everyone I know.

You can see how you too can profit like the ultra-rich during these uncertain times.

His free video

"How To Create Incredible Wealth in Today's Economic Crisis"

is at:

Hope this info helps everyone as much as it has me.

Dr. Nancy

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 13:31 | Link to Comment Uncle Keith
Uncle Keith's picture

BHO vs GOP "Mens Room Stall Foot Tappers". BHO wins. 


Since Barry gets ZERO help from Democratic "Leadership", it behooves Barry to bring home troops; let them find themselves as unemployed as everyone else from their station in the class structure; armed, depressed, dispondent - act out. 


The "crisis" will demand a fair look at Tax Code; Trade Agreements; Most Favored Nation Trading Status (China - The Bush Family Gift that kept on giving...); NAFTA.



Fri, 11/04/2011 - 14:01 | Link to Comment Buzz Fuzzel
Buzz Fuzzel's picture

Not to worry.  The bureau of labor statistics will be reporting sub 5% unemployment by November 2012 no matter what.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 14:27 | Link to Comment vato poco
vato poco's picture

Am pretty sure that generating jobs & creating wealth & enabling prosperity *isn't* what our Dear Leader's got planned for us. Call it a hunch.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 18:16 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Great chart!

Here is my take: Unemployment – Two Years To Go From 10% to 9% – It Will Take 9 Years To Get Back to 2007 Unemployment Levels

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!