US Needs To Generate 262,500 Jobs Monthly To Return To Pre-Depression Employment By End Of Obama Second Term

Tyler Durden's picture

We will simply copy and paste, with the appropriate adjustments, the form text we put up after each and every NFP report calculating the number of people that have to be added by the end of a hypothetical second Obama term. Using the October boilerplate: "Every few months we rerun an analysis of how many jobs the US economy has to generate to return to the unemployment rate as of December 2007 when the Great Financial Crisis started, by the end of Obama's potential second term in November 2016. This calculation takes into account the historical change in Payroll and includes the 90,000/month natural growth to the labor force, and extrapolates into the future. And every time we rerun this calculation, the number of jobs that has to be created to get back to baseline increases: First it was 245,500 in April, then 250,000 in June, then 254,000 in July [then 261,200 in October]. As of today, following the just announced "beat" of meager NFP expectations, this number has has just risen to an all time high 261,200 262,500. This means that unless that number of jobs is created each month for the next 5 years, America will have a higher unemployment rate in October 2016 than it did in December 2007. How realistic is it that the US economy can create 16.2 million jobs in the next 6261 months? We leave that answer up to the US electorate."

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writingsonthewall's picture




RiskManager 3 Eval/UAT/Staging Rollback: Delay of Financial Crisis Stress Tests Release

Yesterday's RiskManager 3 Eval/UAT/Staging release which included new Financial Crisis Stress tests has been rolled back to the previous RiskManager 3 version due to technical problems. Thus, the new stress tests can not be accessed in the current RiskManager 3 Eval/UAT/Staging version. RiskMetrics is evaluating this issue, and will alert clients when the new stress tests will be available.



They couldn't believe the results coming out of testing! - they are just not believable...

paarsons's picture

It won't happen.

But it ain't Obama's fault. Don't get me wrong.  He's a cunt.

However, this crap's been building for 23 years.  No shit.

I miss Paul Craig Roberts.  Now that's a fucking economist.

Where the fuck did he go?

bullonparade's picture

I fail to see why job creation is approached like some kindof miracle. You dont wave your wand, and jobs dont just appear. Job creation is a function of consumerism and national spending, not of so called "job creators". If there was any such job creator is was the us office and its foreign backloans to stimulate spending. Als maybe we need to see where fixed unemployment is before we adress conjunctural unemployment, it seems everybody is just floundering to look for the golden ticket that doenst exist. Deleveraging and Reality sucks for the economy, true story.

I juts hope people realise we all contributed to this situation by desinterest and a laissez faire attitude towards general economic constraint. If these job results lead to Obama losing against the republican retards i will move to some tahitian island awaiting the end of days. Because honestly i doubt those Gop candidates believe in anything thats real.

Tom Servo102's picture

you better hurry back to Zucotti Park, I hear Security is tearing down your tent and stealing your stash!

Hard1's picture

" the end of Obama second term"   LOL!

MobBarley's picture

You might think that with that recent 1.5 billion infusion of cash into the

Obama re-election campaign funds he would run and win. Alas, the PTB

have pre-selected one Michelle 'Mommy Dearest' Bachmann as your next





V in PA's picture

Yeah. I would have preferred 2016. Thinking of him having a second term makes me sick.

El Yunque's picture

You force 45 million new customers into a healthcare system that's pretty well got the aftermarket parts for performance (money pit), you'll get a few guys like me building parking lots here instead of Zhengzhou. I still don't understand why the fuck no one sees the upside potential of the healthcare racket as an economic fucking fussion reactor; it ain't like customized KFC hearts ain't going to need a little work here.

Most of us will refuse to fly to China for a prostate exam, although nothing is impossible at this stage.

If you can't get rich selling health care to the same fat Americans Herb Cain got rich selling pizzas to, with the mobius strip of tax dollars cycling in and out of the fucking machine, then you can't get rich, period.

45 million Americans needing healthcare and all of it's component parts should generate about 135,000,000 jobs, that's 3 people for every person in the system, which kind of equates roughly with the way the healthcare racket works today.

There's your job mill - the whole frigging enchilada (don't say that in the clinic).

PulauHantu29's picture

One problem is they seek to create more paper pushers instead of "real jobs".....the real job creation is taking place overseas and in Mexico where manufacturing, etc is growing like gangbusters. Pushing paper---CDS, bonds, etc--is only so good.....then you need real production ....

sethstorm's picture

So those jobs are going to places where there is no freedom - except for the businesses?

Apparently the markets hate freedom when it is not solely in the hands of business, but also in the hands of regular individuals.

karzai_luver's picture



Just hear what they say.....


Markets HATE uncertainty, why it's a black letter article of faith among your free types.

So, fascist it shall be.

Hail mighty market of stability.

Only dopes fall for it, but there is no shortage of them types these daze.


transaccountin's picture

we dont need no jobs; usa is walden two: nirvana

Divided States of America's picture

Leverage up the Birth Death Adjustment by 3X and presto! Today's NPF number would have been north of 300k. According to these politicians, leveraging is the solution to everything.

TruthInSunshine's picture

265,000 jobs x 60 (months) = 16,000,000


Sorry...I was thinking out loud, mathematically.

p.s. - I really believe that number is off, and that it should be closer to 17,800,000, which would be closer to just under 300,000 jobs created per month, for 60 months consecutively (but I am quibbling over details, I do realize). 

More importantly, the threat is that when the 2nd wave strikes, it's wholly possible that we begin to see -200k prints on a monthly basis in early 2012, so....yeeeaaahhh. Double dips SUCK. They're like getting hit with a tsunami after the earthquake.

55 men's picture


Everything looks great according to Yahoo news. Yes, I am so pumped everything is turning around, thank you Yahoo for telling it like it is. //Sarcasm off//


Employers add 80K jobs, rate dips to 9 pct.

junkyardjack's picture

Challenge accepted

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Only if re-elected. The administration needs to be inspected and then rejected.

Carlyle Groupie's picture

USA needs more TSA 'workers' to monitor highways, buses, trains, and residential homes.

larry david's picture

How dare you point out the truth. Damn you bloggers. Someone might read this and have a critical thought and then what? Confidence may be lost, jobs will not be created.  Again, how dare you!

HD's picture

May we can pay people to fill the Grand Canyon - but what would we fill it with?  Maybe Ol' Ben has a idea.

Sudden Debt's picture




I've once see a guy jump from a 2 story building and lived to tell! HE LIVED TO TELL!! Amazing!

So that's why I think Obama still has a shot at creating all those jobs.


Roland99's picture

Time to open more Starbucks and McDonald's!


ooo...or some Ebay stores!

Sudden Debt's picture

ooo...or some Ebay stores!



Roland99's picture

I'm still hanging my Hopium on Groupon.


And, hey, check this:


 Starbucks shares rise nearly 5%, best on S&P 500


SheepDog-One's picture

US top companies make things no one actually needs. 

TruthInSunshine's picture

LNKD, Pandora, Groupon, Netflicker, etc, etc.

What's old is new again, bitchez!


The Winners of the New World - TheStreet

  The Winners of the New World By Jim Cramer February 29, 2000 - 09:42 AM EST

Editor's Note: James J. Cramer is the keynote speaker at the 6th Annual Internet and Electronic Commerce Conference and Exposition, held today at the Jacob Javits Center in New York City. We're running the full text of that speech here.

You want winners? You want me to put my Cramer Berkowitz hedge fund hat on and just discuss what my fund is buying today to try to make money tomorrow and the next day and the next? You want my top 10 stocks for who is going to make it in the New World? You know what? I am going to give them to you. Right here. Right now.

OK. Here goes. Write them down -- no handouts here!: 724 Solutions (SVNX), Ariba (ARBA), Digital Island (ISLD), Exodus (EXDS), (INSP), Inktomi (INKT), Mercury Interactive (MERQ), Sonera (SNRA), VeriSign (VRSN) and Veritas Software (VRTS).

We are buying some of every one of these this morning as I give this speech. We buy them every day, particularly if they are down, which, no surprise given what they do, is very rare. And we will keep doing so until this period is over -- and it is very far from ending. Heck, people are just learning these stories on Wall Street, and the more they come to learn, the more they love and own! Most of these companies don't even have earnings per share, so we won't have to be constrained by that methodology for quarters to come.

Ensane's picture

Alot of college degrees going to waste.

Tsar Pointless's picture

Maybe the CIA can recruit more Good Americans to play the role of "Big Brother".

And I'm not referring to the reality teevee show, either.

He may or may not be watching you, but Big Brother is reading your every mobile or online thought.

As if you ever believed otherwise.

Carlyle Groupie's picture

I hope they create a honeypot blog and catch those old homegrown terrorist with some good granny-nazi porn.


Comay Mierda's picture

maybe we can leverage the birth/death model?

larry david's picture

JEF plunging again...

GeneMarchbanks's picture

...and recovering in a straight line, natural healthy looking chart.

Surly Bear's picture

Go ahead, show me your 'O' face.

1835jackson's picture

Ben Bernanke told the media on Wednesday in regard to the occupy Wall Street protest that if it was not for the fed's intervention the entire financial system would have collapsed....I say...LET THE MOTHER FUCKER COLLASPE! It's a fraud, sham; hocus pocus, a massive ponzi scheme. The most disturbing thing about that press conference was the palpable fear in the room the reporters knew they were addressing chairsatan and they had better be careful about what they say.


Dr. Engali's picture

That's only 8,750 jobes per day. Surely we can print enough money to do that.

Mitzibitzi's picture

You can do it without printing anything. In fact it's the only way you CAN do it...

Unfortunately firing the whole nanny state / fascist bureaucracy that creates the bullshit regulations, permits, tariffs and stealth taxes that prevent new businesses from springing up and established businesses from hiring more workers will put about as many people on the dole as the lack of BS interference gets off it. Net change in employment somewhere around zero.

We should still do it anyway, as most of those guys could learn something from having to do a real job! Plus, the new workers will be paying net positive taxes, in some cases at least. Working for .gov can't be taxation positive by definition.

But it ain't gonna happen. You WILL get widespread civil disorder before the .gov leeches willingly give up their easy ride.

Mitzibitzi's picture

I take it two govt employees / paid shills were reading the above? Get a proper job, assholes!

vegas's picture

Good luck hitting that target. I have a better chance picking up a rock and trying to hit the moon.

bahaar's picture

Develped world is losing jobs to mainly automation.  Jobs not lost to automation is off-shored.  This has been going on for past 30 years.  In the 80s, US debt was low and therefore it could borrow and plough large sums of money into new cutting edge technology.  The new technology in turn created new jobs in the US masking the loss of older (manufacturing) jobs.  But job loss due to automation /off-shoring only got faster and faster until job creation due to new technology couldn't keep pace.  also new technology requires investment of large sums of money but US cannot borrow anymore because of it's accumulating liabilities.  Emerging market will go only so far.  The money they earn will be used to uplift their very poor population.  They cannot invest large sums of money into reasearch and development.  Of course Wall Street have done their bit by misusing whatever money US accumulated.  Obama may not be the greatest of leaders but I can't see what any President can do.  So unless we have some kind of plague which kills off the dead-wood (older generation) in one big swipe, developed world is in for depression and will be followed by emerging markets.

Mitzibitzi's picture

The wife said much the same thing last night, as it happens.

And while I, personally, wouldn't engage in massive depopulation (particularly of the elderly and otherwise non-productive) to sort the problem out for the remainder, I'm not so sure TPTB / NWO crowd have my morals. They're already hideously rich and powerful and still want even more, for one thing. Which I'm sure tells you something about their personalities, or lack thereof?

Fact is, the birth rate in most countries is pretty low, while the elderly are living longer than ever. Simple arithmetic tells you that can't continue indefinitely. But if the governments of the developed and developing world engage in a 'drop a sprog for dollars! (or more likely SDRs)' drive to boost the birth rate to pay for it with taxes, we simply reach the carrying capacity of the planet all the sooner. And there are no jobs for those sproglings to do anyway.

Inevitably, we're going to reduce the population of this rock to the Georgia Guidestones level, whether we want to or not. War, Famine, Pestilence and plain old Death have always been the simplest way to adjust demographics, whether inflicted deliberately on the unsuspecting populace or with a helping hand from that bitch, Mother Nature.


TrulyBelieving's picture
Consider this, Tech's and automation have never destroyed jobs or wealth creation. Example, would you rather use a wooden plough pulled behind an ox or a deisel tractor to plant your crop, and which do you think more productive? Jobs are leaving the US more likely because of tax burden and over-regulation. See anyone start a new car company, or telephone or computer or anything new company? Try to start up even a small business, EPA, FDA, or any of the myriad of government agencies will be on you and 'eat out your substanance'.  All of this by design, with the goal to empower the politicians, make more rich the banks, by taking what is rightfully the people's and diminishing their role as nothing more than servitude. Hope you like your new role in this scheme.
karzai_luver's picture

are "free trade" "agreements", regulation?


Are they a tax?

If you "pull a plow" and grow your own are you more productive than if you die eating some Chinese crap or maybe not getting any Chinese crap to eat after their market shuts you out?


It's never been easier to start a biz, tons of money and peeps begging for a place to go.

You seem a bit "basement" oriented.


p.s. true believers are always the first to fail.






TrulyBelieving's picture

Never made the comparison of growing my own food with buying from Chinese.   p.s.  true unbelievers never know they don't succeed.

bahaar's picture

For every one job technology created it probably killed 10 jobs.  That may not have been apparent in the West until now because technology created jobs in the West and killed jobs in the rest of the world. Take your example--- tractors were made in the West (and therefore created jobs in the West's factory).  And when tractors got exported to the rest of the world, landowners laid off farm workers in those parts of the world.  How else do you think filthy rich India and China became dirt poor in the dawn of industrial era?Tchnology made / is going ot make a few very very rich and the rest very very poor. 

TrulyBelieving's picture

 Every one job created by technology kills about 10 jobs. I guess the invention of electricity, gasoline engines, and the host of things that are now made from just these 2 things must have really set us back a bit. Just imagine how many jobs would be available if we hadn't experienced just these 2 advances. Yea, now I see your point.

TrulyBelieving's picture

We are witnessing 'fundemental transformation' as promised. The playbook, Rules for Radicals. All going according to plan, the destruction of a once free people, an inside job. I believe this is the last chapter, the counter-revolution having gained much momentum with opposition just about non-existent. Barring a miracle, it's the end folks.    

moriarty's picture

If he gets the second term what will he care?

He will be yet another ex president wandering the world on a generous stipend from the tax payer charging exorbitant fees to anyone willing to listen to his rhetoric.

If he is truly concerned about his legacy for the people he would not be acting out the placemen role that he is.

Hobbleknee's picture

Homeland Security is hiring.