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US Needs To Generate 263,700 Jobs Monthly To Return To Pre-Depression Employment By End Of Obama Second Term

Tyler Durden's picture





 

We will simply copy and paste, with the appropriate adjustments, the form text we put up after each and every NFP report calculating the number of people that have to be added by the end of a hypothetical second Obama term. Using the November boilerplate: "Every few months we rerun an analysis of how many jobs the US economy has to generate to return to the unemployment rate as of December 2007 when the Great Financial Crisis started, by the end of Obama's potential second term in November 2016. This calculation takes into account the historical change in Payroll and includes the 90,000/month natural growth to the labor force, and extrapolates into the future. And every time we rerun this calculation, the number of jobs that has to be created to get back to baseline increases: First it was 245,500 in April, then 250,000 in June, then 254,000 in July then 261,200 in October [and finally 262,500 in November] . As of today, following the just announced "beat" of meager NFP expectations, this number has has just risen to an all time high 262,500 263,700. This means that unless that number of jobs is created each month for the next 5 years, America will have a higher unemployment rate in October 2016 than it did in December 2007. How realistic is it that the US economy can create 15.8 million jobs in the next 61 60 months? We leave that answer up to the US electorate."

 


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Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:55 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

It'll keep rising... bitchez

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:58 | Link to Comment idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

 

US Needs To incarcerate 263,700 citizens indefinitely without trial Monthly To Return To Pre-Depression Employment By End Of Obama Second Term

Fixed it for you!  ;-)

 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:04 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Start with Corzine.

Thank you idea hamster.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:28 | Link to Comment Nobody special
Nobody special's picture

I thought Obama planned to achieve this by the end of his first term.  We should stick to the original metric.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:50 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

YES WE CAN

YES WE CAN

can't we?  Bitchez?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:58 | Link to Comment jayman21
jayman21's picture

+100

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:19 | Link to Comment Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

Most people won't thinks so because they will just keep massaging the numbers to create the headlines they need. 

You read about this in the history books and it seemed so foreign, now we're living in an society driven by propaganda! Edward Bernays & Joseph Goebbels would be so proud.

 

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:40 | Link to Comment YBNguy
YBNguy's picture

The Ministry of Truth is at it again!

 

Now down the memory hole with the facts....

 

 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:57 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

We used to make fun of Soviet media:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RpJH5zDmZc

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:55 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Don't worry, they will achieve it through real death adjustments.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:58 | Link to Comment Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

No problemo - Biden is calling Jon Corizine right now about this issue

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:59 | Link to Comment Jason T
Jason T's picture

Print..hyperinflate.  Germany's unemployment rate in the Summer of 1922... anyone know??  it was 1% 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:01 | Link to Comment dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Thanks... this graph says everything. IMO, it is the flagship of the 'bullshit cutter' fleet.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:01 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

im optimistic about future unemployment----------the way i see it, when we get to 0 percent labor force participation, we will have 0% unemployment. 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:09 | Link to Comment kralizec
kralizec's picture

Heh, that's about it for this Regime!

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:20 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Way to take one for the team.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:02 | Link to Comment Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

I know it is fun to see how many jobs it takes to get back to pre-obama levels, but I think Americans need to accept perhaps high employment was actually an anomaly and it is not realistic to expect it to return.  A lot of people are not employable.  The boom-boom years employed people who didnt have the skills but were a warm body.  Today, a warm body doesnt cut it.  I dont think that is going to change in the near future.

Just last night I was at a store and couldn't figure out hwo the store clerk was hired.  They had no skills. In fact this person working was a detriment.  I decided to buy on line.  This is not sustainable.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:02 | Link to Comment Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

I like the 8.6% unemployment number, all on the back of 316K people giving up looking for work and dropping off of the roles of the unemployed. The other big number is 64% participation rate down 2% in the las few years.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-02/u-s-jobless-rate-unexpectedly-d...

 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:03 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Obama's team  has time to adjust the numbers to bring down the unemployment. After that Obama is in for another term. That's how the game works.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:05 | Link to Comment Number 156
Number 156's picture

...by the end of Obama's potential second term in November 2016.

Quite possible. But then it doesn't really matter. For instance, How can Gingrich come into the fray and so easily be more popular than the other contenders so quickly?

Ans: Hes not.  Elections are bought and sold. Sock puppet presidents and sock puppet news media.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:14 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

FTW!

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:07 | Link to Comment Double down
Double down's picture

Is that a 2nd derivative decline I spot?  Green shoots!  /Sarc

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:07 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

US Needs To Generate 263,700 Jobs Monthly To Return To Pre-Depression Employment By End Of Obama Second Term

This is a trick headline.....right? The assumption that Obama will have a second term in which he can miss his target of pre-depression job levels?

I see what you're doing Tyler. You tricky bastard. :)

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:14 | Link to Comment Number 156
Number 156's picture

Obama did say he 'needed a second term to finish the job.'

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:21 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Funnier if he'd used "Bush's Fourth Term".

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:10 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

"15.8 million jobs"? easy: war.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:23 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

- Conscription Officer

- Bullet-catcher

- Bullet-remover

- Drone Pilot (must have videogame experience)

- Annoying guy with sword in patriotism exploiting ad for Marines

- Xe Operative

- Cash Misplacer

- No-bid contract writer

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:52 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

yeah those USMC ads during the UFCs are the best.  As if charging into a life or death war is in ANY way the same as getting into a cage for a professional fight.

The guys I know who were in the USMC in Iraq are now the LEAST gungho of anyone and all think the war was bullshit.  Too many doors kicked in and families beaten to stomach the lies anymore.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:14 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Some more not-seasonally adjusted numbers from the November 2011 employment situation report.

Since January 2009, Obama's inauguration:

Civilian non-institutionalized population - up 5.702 million

Civilian labor force - up just 238k

Employed - net gain of just 634k

Unemployed - net drop of just 396k

Not in Labor Force - up a dramatic 5.464m

So we've added 5.7 million to our CNIP, but have seen the NILF group rise by nearly the same number.

That's not improvement, and if I have to point that out to you, I guess you're the pointless one.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:36 | Link to Comment buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

The important thing is that we must continue to import 120,000 to 150,000 mostly unskilled, Spanish speaking immigrants every month. We need more ethnic diversity. And we need to replace all the aborted democrats that are lovingly killed by their 'progressive' mothers each month. Forget the unemployment rate, the left has a society to mold. Don't like it? There's a FEMA camp waiting for you, cracker.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:43 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

I agree with not importing unskilled non-English speaking people. We have enough of those already - they're called "white Amerikkans". Have you been to Pittsburgh lately? Or any other part of the Fascist States of Amerikka, for that matter?

As for ethnic diversity, we have enough of that, too. Why, every day I see ghetto garbage and white trash all on the same mode of public transportation.

And, yes - it's a damn shame that all of those poor zygotes never get the opportunity to live a repressed life on Earth. One very well could grow up to be president and take their marching orders from the very same bankers who have controlled all presidents since at least Wilson.

Forget the unemployment rate - the fascist right has a society to mold. Don't like it? There's a FEMA camp waiting for you, cracker!

I can readily admit this comment is just as silly and useless as yours, so there.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:54 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

public transportation in white cities works.  In BRA cities like Atlanta, it's crime-ridden.

Pittsburgh?  LOL...voted most livable city in the US.  Try again.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 12:20 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Trav7777, I live in Pittsburgh. I work in Pittsburgh. If anybody is uniquely positioned to describe the hell that is Pittsburgh, it would be this Tsar.

Most livable city - by attrition only.

Cheap labor, stupid people, dilapidated infrastructure, poisoned air and water. Yeah - it's a virtual panacea of prosperity here.

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 03:13 | Link to Comment caerus
caerus's picture

man you're smart....if you ever want to hang out and drink let me know...

Sat, 12/03/2011 - 03:08 | Link to Comment buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

Right.... and the broader society reflects conservative values... where? Where's the imposition, the molding? They're really shitty at it if they're making any effort at all. The left, on the other hand.... whoa nellie. Control freak central, their control and institutions spreading like ass cancer.

Virtually every conservative I know wants to be left alone and wants to leave others alone. Some want to mold their communities, but the country? You must really miss Jerry Falwell.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:16 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

Come on stop with the reality posts. The agenda of the financial media is to push the markets to new highs regardless of the facts. If they don't aknowledge the facts and present fantasy as fact to support the agenda all is fine. As Cramer says, he doesn't care about what goes on behind the scenes to get a number, his job is to make your portfolio value go up. If a comapny mistates earnings and the stock doubles, who cares as long as the cheat isn't outed. I AM SICK OF THIS GARBAGE PIT WHERE CHEATING IS NOT ONLY ACCEPTABLE BUT ENCOURAGED AS LONG AS YOU DON'T GET CAUGHT!!!

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:17 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Don't worry, they'll kill a few million people with a bunch of Al-CIAda nukes... problem solved.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:29 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

No guarantee they'll get the right ones to fix the labor participation rate, but it'll be fun watching laid-off auto workers attempt to run particle accelerators.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:18 | Link to Comment Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

"Obama's second term"....

Huh,,,,

Are you's really going to vote him in again.???

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:27 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Have you seen the Pugnican't field?

Are you's really going to vote for Newt or the Pizza Man?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:41 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

and you will reward this debt driven administration? 5+ Trillion more in debt. Seriously, I'd vote for anyone else. Anyone. I don't care who but I just can't see voting for a total and complete failure. If the next guy fails you thow him out.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:25 | Link to Comment Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

Perhaps in less than a decade when the illusion of the American middle class fades in its entirety, the controlling political-corporate oligarchy will decide to "improve" things and reinvigorate the dead American dream, by returning the manufacturing base back to the homeland, since the majority of the population will dream to rise above the "food stamp class", and maybe dream about buying a cheap house in their 50's.

At that time it is guaranteed that the American workforce will work for a proper serf wage (Mexican), and it will make for an attractive investment for the 1%, who are of course (per Fox News) the job creators, and America will be the new Szechwan province and a manufacturer of shoelaces and fighter planes.

 

 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:34 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Another easy answer: lie

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 12:17 | Link to Comment MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

A second term for Obama will be all that is needed to completly distroy America.  He needs to get the hell out/.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 12:25 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

How about calculating how many jobs
Obama Bin Lyin' needs to generate by the end of his one and only term to get employment back to pre depression levels?

Before Employment Can Improve
We need 536 more to be unemployed... Every ass hat in Congress plus the Wall Street puppet, teleprompter reading douche bag Nobel "Piece" Prize Laureate and all around useful idiot...

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 12:53 | Link to Comment Leraconteur
Leraconteur's picture

It's worse than it looks.

If you use the slope of the red line from March, 2010 to Sept, 2011 as a guide, it closes on the black line at a rate of 2mn jobs every 5 years.

It's going to take 20 or 25 years, at this pace, to get back to 2007.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 13:17 | Link to Comment ThirdCoastSurfer
ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

The Oct 2011 unemployment rate in Mexico is 4.8%. 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 13:45 | Link to Comment ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

We should be talking about what generates positive job growth, for the year over year growth rate in jobs has stalled.  

 

Why do people hire?  To pursue profit potential. 

What makes them think there is profit potential?  Year over year profit growth that is solid and consistent.  

 

And that is something that is lacking.  In fact year over year profit growth has slipped from being in the 30% range to less than 7%.  

Consequently. we will be talking about negative private sector job growth(job losses for those not in the government propaganda bureau) as soon as summer 2012.

 

Profit growth leads to job growth.  It's the only equation that the politicians refuse to acknowledge.

 

 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:53 | Link to Comment goodrich4bk
goodrich4bk's picture

This chart shows me two things:

1.  Job losses under the prior administration were increasing even in the year prior to a Presidential election (when the economy is artificially boosted by incumbants)

2.  These job losses stopped only two months after Obama took office and have been replaced by job gains for the past year.

The chart does not tell me why job losses were so great prior to Obama taking office, nor why job growth has been slower than in previous recoveries.  But any ZH worth his or her salt knows that answer: excessive FIRE economy debt by both Democrat and Republican adminsitrations created a balance sheet recession that cannot be corrected via traditional fiscal or monetary policy.

The "solution" is a prolonged period of unemployment and underemployment until excess capacity is worked off, the output gap is eliminated and debts are forgiven and/or repaid.  In other words, this chart is good news.  Why anybody but the unemployed sees massive unemployment as a "problem" escapes me.  Do we really want or need a President who uses his office to stimulate more jobs?

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