• Steve H. Hanke
    05/04/2016 - 08:00
    Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a...

The US Is Not Japan Or Your Average Stagnation: It Is Much Worse

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Every day we are told how this recovery is the slowest since WWII and that nothing is working. Well, we think we can trump that for dysphoria. Not only is this the slowest recovery since WWII, it is even slower than the average 'stagnation'. Based on Goldman's analysis of 93 stagnations the US GDP per capita is growing even more stagnantly than ever (and dramatically worse than during Japan's 'lost decade').

 

US GDP per capita is still below its peak, well below the average crappy 'stagnant' recovery, and dramatically below the Japanese stagnantion...

Good times, people.

 

Source: Goldman Sachs

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Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:10 | 2653882 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Decade of Hell' or something...but its all good DOW will be 25,000!

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:12 | 2653897 financial apoca...
financial apocalyptic contagion's picture

The US is not Zimbabwe
We got better quality toilet paper here, easier on the ass 

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:13 | 2653903 knukles
knukles's picture

Durned tootin'.  We's Humeruchuns an we're best at everythin'

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:28 | 2653955 Aziz
Aziz's picture

Dow 36 trillion, bitchez.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 15:05 | 2654049 economics9698
economics9698's picture

It's all in your head.  Vote Hope and Change part II. /sarc

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 16:36 | 2654502 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

"Hope" is all America's got.

 

Elites are very afraid.....Take hope away from America and you got anarchy.

 

Hope of becoming rich one day.

Hope of going to heaven when you die.

Hope of becoming famous .

Hope of joining the elites is what keeps non-elites enslaved.

 

 

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 20:16 | 2655149 Nehweh Gahnin
Nehweh Gahnin's picture

"Take hope away from America and you got anarchy."

I HOPE so.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:45 | 2654003 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

you would think that...
but Zimbabwe didn't use metal safety strips in their currency notes...

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 16:07 | 2654321 financial apoca...
financial apocalyptic contagion's picture

Oh snap!
Long Zimbabwe dollar

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:02 | 2654811 youngandhealthy
youngandhealthy's picture

Your potential president is making "friends" with your former rulers

 

"...In the NBC interview, Romney described reports of security problems with the summer games as “disconcerting,” and said, “It’s hard to know just how well it will turn out...”

 

The response:

"...Of course it’s easier if you hold an Olympic Games in the middle of nowhere,” a remark interpreted as a reference to the games organized by Romney in Salt Lake CityUtah.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:13 | 2653900 Concentrated po...
Concentrated power has always been the enemy of liberty.'s picture

& bananas will also be $25,000.00

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:17 | 2653915 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

The US economy has driven off the cliff. It just hasn't looked down yet.

 

http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.ca/

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 17:05 | 2654651 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Smooth sailing ahead ...

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:34 | 2653973 valley chick
valley chick's picture

looks like they are getting a running start today. :(

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:09 | 2653883 Debtonation
Debtonation's picture

Is the recession over yet?

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 16:04 | 2654308 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

Which recession?  The US recession has been over for years (2009).

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:10 | 2653884 DrDinkus
DrDinkus's picture

Paging Robert Brusca....

 

seriously, did that guy get eighty-sixed ?

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:11 | 2653891 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Rubber Scrota here. Howdy.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:11 | 2653885 zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

down the rabbit hole - now which pill should I take.....

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:14 | 2653907 knukles
knukles's picture

That one that makes you bigger.  The Jeremy Renner pill.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:49 | 2654016 Remedial
Remedial's picture

One that makes you bigger,

one that makes you small

and the ones the Fed gives you

don't do anything at all...go ask Alice

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:53 | 2654019 hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

...but the ones that Bernanke gives you don't do anything at all.

Edit...Remedial beat me to it!

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 15:13 | 2654067 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Actually that one is called chemical restraints for those which require it.

Combative Citizens are not welcome...

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 17:36 | 2654752 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

knukles said:

That one that makes you bigger.  The Jeremy Renner pill.

I think you mean the Ron Jeremy pill.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 23:49 | 2655520 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Ron Jeremy, the guy with the "big janitors?" :>D

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:11 | 2653886 dmger14
dmger14's picture

As Krugman says, it's because there hasn't been enough money printed.  How does a jagillion sound?

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:11 | 2653895 madcows
madcows's picture

Not sure what to get out of that.  Japan's lost decades is significantly better than the average of the 93 stagnations?  where's the trend line for non-stagnation just for comparison's sake.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:13 | 2653902 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Whew, glad we're nothing like Japan

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:15 | 2653906 Arnold Ziffel
Arnold Ziffel's picture

Worst Biflation i seen in my life.

 

Some sectors (real estate, retail, car sales, etc) are plunging in a death spiral while others (the stuff you need---food, gas, etc) are rising.

 

If all these "For Sale" signs and empty mall shops are any indicator, things are gonna get much worse. If Sears or JCPenny go under, look out below..........................................

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:22 | 2653934 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yes, great comment.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:30 | 2653958 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

japan's nekkei crashed right at start of stagnation 39K to 8K right away with real estate and other asset prices, their market signalled then upcoming 2 decade plus stagnation

how come in USA the stock won't crash, like other things?    don't answer this benny

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 15:22 | 2654110 tbone654
tbone654's picture

because the rest of the bailout world is taking their money and putting it somewhere not in the eurozone...  that leaves the U.S. Japan or China...  it may not be perfect, but it's better than their own currency...

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 15:34 | 2654163 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

fade the rally...  it's basically this hilariously perverse temporary maneuver.  currencies catch a bid...  in fact mighty demand...  right before dying.  maximum pain.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 20:17 | 2654928 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

Currencies catch a bid
in fact mighty demand
right before dying
maximum pain.

Well-composed Haiku, Macho Man.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:15 | 2653910 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Hate to be a prick but:  maybe there's a problem with leveraging non-productive inflating assets, spending the money on consumption and calling that GDP?

 

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:16 | 2653914 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

If GDP was actually an accurate number measuring the economy, US GDP per capita would be falling.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:43 | 2653999 pods
pods's picture

So you are taking offense with the description of slapping cheese on the Royale with Cheese as "manufacturing?"

We manufacture two things in the USSA, bullshit statistics and synthetic financial products.  Basically debt and bullshit.

Oh, and bombs.  Lots of bombs.  Those are single use too!  Great for the broken window theory.

pods

 

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 15:02 | 2654043 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Yep We break their windows ,install a central banker,ship them a couple plane loads of fiat and voila another nation hooked on debt. Another added bonus is  the petro dollar is preserved for a little while longer.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 15:46 | 2654218 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

Ponzies work until there's no new suckers. The world is out of countries to expand the dollar into and the rest of the world's central banks are up to their ears in dollars. No more suckers...this thing is going to implode.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:18 | 2653920 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

someone tell the equity markets that.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:18 | 2653921 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

My glorius nation is never average.

We're Number 1!

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:28 | 2653922 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Clearly we aren't printing enough. Ben needs to print about eleventy trillion so we can lift off and reach orbital speed. That or blow up on the launch pad. Either way is cool, I have plenty of Pms.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:32 | 2653967 kito
kito's picture

you will have to trade one of your silver dimes for my sandwich though........after this farcical ramp up based on hot air, you have zero chance of seeing any lsap this year............

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:46 | 2654008 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Lol..  They are busy building cover to print. All the stories about food prices going up due to the drought...trouble in the middle east to blame gas prices on. I'll be eating a turkey sandwich before Christmas. I hope you have some precious metals because that turkey sandwich will cost you a lot more fiat by then.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 15:16 | 2654077 kito
kito's picture

im still banking on a massive credit implosion that will wipe every asset off of the earth.....maybe at that point, if it looks like we are heading back to the dark ages, i will pick up some pms on the cheap right after the paper market blows up...................

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 15:59 | 2654281 AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

You are planning on getting physical PM's when the paper market blows up?

Meaning, when everyone realizes paper is shit and rushes to physical, you expect to get physical at cheap paper prices?

You think that holders will actually part with the physical in that scenario?

You better be really good at timing, and you better be first in line.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 19:28 | 2655036 kito
kito's picture

you assume that the paper market will blow up because there is a rush to physical?? perhaps it will blow up like every other market trading assets because everything has been priced too high thanks to the quintillions of digital dollars floating around, and therefore the only thing anybody wants will be physical dollars........

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:21 | 2653928 ripper
Thu, 07/26/2012 - 17:55 | 2654798 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Hey ripper, go blow a goat. Seriously. You're the same fucking spammer that was spamming crapital3x under the names props2009, reutersanalyst, and zonetraders before ZH shitcanned those accounts.

You're worse than AnAnonymous. Even though he's a mentally disordered propagandist that disagrees with everyone and everything, at least he is usually commenting on the articles, even if only tangentially.

All you do is post links that duplicate the crapital3x twitter feed. There must be something fundamentally wrong with crapital3x if their business plan is dependent on spamming.

And giving yourself a green arrow is just hella lame.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 14:21 | 2653930 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

It's not going to work.  We have the baby boomer generation about to enter the fixed income stage of their lives and they are not about to take on debt knowing their incomes are fixed going forward.  They know they will not reap the benefit of rising incomes that minimize that debt payment over the years.  Those that used their home as an ATM via debt are underwater and sure as hell can't take on any more debt.  Their children, fresh out of college, can't even find employment, so they can't take on any debt. 

Is it any wonder we're not recovering?  NO.  As Stockman said the other day, people are trying to pay down debt.  Not take on more.

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