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The US Paper Dump Continues: Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund Sells All Of Its US MBS Exposure
Two days ago we noted that foreigners are selling US paper at a record pace, whether to raise capital in a locked out liquidity environment like French banks, or to make a politicial statement, like China. Today we get the first confirmation to this from Norway's Sovereign Wealth fund, best known for its prediction that it would buy and hold Greek bonds in perpetuity back in September 2010. Just recall: "Norway has taken the view that [Greek bonds] will not [default]. The Greek holdings are particularly interesting because the consensus in the market is that they will at some point restructure or default." Well, about a year later it is now official that the best the Norway SWF can hope for is a 50% recovery. So what does it do? It proceeds to dump US paper. Mortgage Backed Securities first. Because if it announced that a sovereign wealth fund instead of buying into the biggest ponzi ever, we finally defecting from it, then all bets would be of. Bloomberg reports: "Norway’s $570 billion sovereign wealth fund sold all its holdings in U.S. mortgage-backed securities as part of a shift of its fixed-income portfolio. The fund holds no mortgage bonds issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the U.S.-controlled mortgage financiers, and an “insignificant” amount of private home loan-backed bonds, said Yngve Slyngstad, chief executive officer of Norges Bank Investment Management, today in an interview in Oslo. “We’ve reduced our holdings of mortgage-backed securities,” he said. “MBS has been taken out of our internal policy benchmark. This means that we don’t have mortgage-backed securities issued by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae any longer."
The stated reason for the dump: prepayment risk: "The debt was sold primarily because of the refinancing risk, he said. In the U.S., when a borrower refinances a mortgage it can cut short the maturity of the bond backed by the loan and reduce the expected interest over time, so-called prepayment risk." The real reason? Why shoring up capital of course. "The fund held 36 billion kroner ($6.6 billion) in bonds from Fannie Mae at the end of the second quarter and 11.5 billion kroner from Freddie Mac at the start of the year." And with the Fed telling us that almost $100 billion in US bonds and MBS having been sold in the past two months, one can be absolutely certain that i) it is not just MBS and ii) it is not just Norway.
From Bloomberg:
The fund’s bond holdings, which totaled $216 billion at the end of the third quarter, returned 3.7 percent in the third quarter, helped by gains in German and U.S. government bonds, the fund said today. The fund’s securitized debt, which was 18 percent of the portfolio, gained 0.3 percent as measured in international currencies.
This is bad news for PIMCO just as the fund was preparing for an MBA-based QE3 launch and buying up every MBS out there. Although judging by the Norwegian's success at predicting markets, the dump may in fact merely bolster PIMCO's thesis.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage bonds fell earlier this week as the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency announced changes to guidelines for the government-supported companies’ refinancing program affecting so-called underwater borrowers.
The decline prompted Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world’s biggest bond fund, to call for investors to buy the bonds. Pimco boosted mortgage securities to 38 percent of assets in its $242 billion Total Return Fund in September, the most since January, from 32 percent the prior month, according to data on the firm’s website.
And some more color on the fund administering the trade surplus of what some consider Europe's best run country:
The fund announced today it has changed its internal benchmark portfolio, reducing it to 4,000 bonds from 11,500 bonds and keeping primarily corporate and government debt. The fund also weighted its euro government bond holding according to gross domestic product rather than the size of the market, which it had earlier proposed as a way of reducing its holdings in nations with increasing debt.
The investor, which is part of the central bank and gets guidelines from the government, held 55.6 percent in stocks, 44.1 percent in bonds and 0.3 percent in real estate at the end of the quarter. It’s mandated to hold 60 percent in stocks, 35 percent in bonds and 5 percent in real estate, which it first bought this year.
Norway, a nation of 4.9 million people, generates money for the fund from taxes on oil and gas, ownership of petroleum fields and dividends from its 67 percent stake in Statoil ASA (STL), the country’s largest energy company. Norway is the world’s second-largest gas exporter and the seventh-biggest oil exporter. The fund invests outside Norway to avoid stoking domestic inflation.
While Norway may me lucky, its sovereign wealth fund sure isn't. And we venture to say, it isn't the only one.
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It sort of helps sitting on - considering the population size - vast energy fortunes.
The story behind how they got them all includes an alcoholic Danish foreign minister, and a Norwegian summit, where he was liberally plied before signing over all the major fields.
Copy that.
Countries with large natural resources relative to the size of their populations will be the relative winners in the global meltdown.
uhm. you're sort of wrong.
When stagflation & hyperinflation hits, there will be no shelter.
Commodity based nations, like Canada & Australia will experience severe Dutch disease, as inflows into their currencies, as an inflation hedge, destroys the manufacturing sector.
massive layoffs will ensue.
And as prices climb, but not output, commodity based, developed nation will be entrenched in accelerating stagflation. There is no escape. Social society will begin to collapse. In the US muni wont' be able to sell bonds. Munis go bankrupt, or are forced to cut emergency services.
Even if you hold physical gold in the US, you are not safe. There will be massive breaking & entering of homes as people try to salvage exchangeable physical goods. And there will be no police force to enforce the law.
California will be the hardest hit, as their Million+ prison population, begins to be a bigger burden. And if it collapses, you'll have criminals flooding out, exasterbating the bedlam.
And if you keep gold in a bank, the government may confiscate it.
Phenemologically, a fiat currency system is an exchange system of trust. So if the fiat currency system collapses, it necessitates a collapse in trust throughout civil society. Without trust modern exchange mechanisms break down. And the ramifications are many.
let's have no illusion.
#occupywallstreet
umm your sorta wrong .. no YOUR JUST PLANE WRONG !
Phenemologically, a fiat currency system is an exchange system of trust. So if the fiat currency system collapses, it necessitates a collapse in trust of civil society. Without trust exchange mechanisms break down. And the ramifications are many.
and that is why people threw out time have held silver and gold .
That is why china told all they're people .. buy silver and gold vs Rsp
this is why central banks horde silver and gold.
the dollar was a derivative from silver and gold ( bretton woods system)
why do you think the first plundering of any counrty the U S invades is silver and gold.
Just so you know if you realy want to own your land in Canada , you can ask the CRown to buy in silver or gold.
www.GOLD@ shut-up.com
do you see a pattern ?
the pattern I see is your misspelling of at least one word in every sentence you write. People who cannot write properly just plane[sic] have no credibility
Spelling does not make or break rationale. Grammer, logic, absolutely. But just because I can't remember which words have double consonance, and just because I can't remember which vowel to use, does not make me any less intelligent from someone else.
It just means I did not read much in HS. I apologize for doing drugs, drinking booze, playing sports, filming movies, having fun while copying my homework from the girls in my classes, and chasing that same skirt while I was younger. If I could go back in time I would have not flunked out of econ and lituratuare, but until you find a time machine to make my scripting complete, you will have to deal.
Grammer? Is that Kelsey Grammer? Or is it Kelsey's Grammar? Perhaps it was a book? "No, just some tripe." I thought tripe was a bird? "It's a fish." Who gave you the bird? "No one gave me anything." Shut up and eat your pee.
Zero hedgers need to grow up and stop arguing about meaningless issues. The real question is HOW ARE WE GOING TO BOOST AGGREGATE DEMAND? Every American needs to do their part to help this consumer economy to make sure these doomer hypotheses don't come true. Why not be productive and spend some time in the mall rather than fantasizing about these doomer scenarios.
Agreed.
Boost demand.
Buy silver
Agreed.
Buy gold too.
Don't forget to include copper clad lead in your investment profile.
Don't forget food. You need a years supply for each person that will shelter with you. Also remember that you need family or true friends for one simply reality. Someone needs to be awake and watching evey moment of the day and night.
During times of social collapse: Guns > Food > Gold
There isn't much you can't rob with big enough of a gun.
I really don't agree. I don't think there will be a collapse like some others see it. I think we will come together to form a better society than the current one. Sure, guns will play a large role, but people will band together to form community.
Sure there will be bad guys/gals, but the good guys will have guns. And I don't think people will be running from house to house robbing people of their wealth, that would take too much energy for almost no benefit.
I mean come to my house; if you are unfriendly, you will be met with gunfire, and I don't have any gold or silver anyway. This will stop people from stealing.
And I will be buying ammo and guns with gold.
Gold>food>guns
Guns>food>gold
I' like to modify....
health>guns>food>gold
guns is no good when you don't have a trigger finger.
In times of crisis, there is no good or bad...just survival mentality. And right now military has guns. Thus, most shithole countries in Africa are led by military leaders. Nice good girls are not in the military my friend. They are professional killers who have killed before and also probably find killing fun thus interested in military to begin with not normal civilian life.
That will be a necessity as stores of wealth will be ransacked so thus cannot exist. Only way to sustain would be to rob place from place. That's why even missiles won't be useful when you have 1000s eating the corn in the farm field. You can't fire the missile to destroy the farm. So light mobile weapons will be useful for disorganized pirate style living.
You can't shoot fast enough to protect any assets like a house. USA has 300,000,000 people. Dozen will come to your front door, while dozens will steal your food storage at the same time.
Gold becomes a liability. You need to hire teams of people with guns to protect it. and sooner or later you have to engage in trade when you run out of food. But trade routes will be controlled by mobs with big guns taxing you for protection fee.
BUT by this point, life is hopeless anyways. It is no longer life but hell on earth. Maybe George Bush wasn't so crazy about space program to MARS.
I have faith in community. I think we will band together more than we will fall apart. I do not believe the government will be able to keep its foothold on the world political scene, and like many governments before it, I think it will fall to the wayside.
I think the world will be able to make it along without government, and we will band together in communities to do so. It will be neighborhoods making sure to keep any rioters out. It should be easy, since everyone is armed. It will not be so easy for London, etc, as we have already seen.
i'm going to do my part and go buy me a dime bag today and another dime bag tomorrow which will lead to buying a bag of snickers and many, many bags of doritos.
Larry?
Think I'll just go over and impregnate my Mormon neighbor's daughter.
It'll save a lot of shopping time whilst depriving TPTB of the profit opportunity.
Not to mention...
That leads to more consumption. I wish I knew for certain if we have unlimited energy or not. The Bible says to spring forth and multiply, and my old shop teacher Mr. Adler says "stop screwing around".
"I wish I knew for certain if we have unlimited energy or not."
You'll eventually find it to be age related.
OT, but Highly Pertinent, can anyone whatch this and not want to rip someone's head off?
This makes so many things irrelevant. And no, it's not about Finance.
It's about Boys Town.
ORI
WHAT CAN ONE SAY
Shut the fuck up
Agreed.
Does that work?
Not in the ZH romper room.
/dup
+1 = no insults
At times like this I think MDB actually IS the central Bank...
This is just straight out of the CB text book...
The only way you can boost aggregate demand is to create genuine wealth, not debt, which has a very short lifecycle before it stops...
Perhaps the CB's should consider that before printing any more money and undermining my wealth...
Hey MillionDollarBonus, how bout I boost my foot up your ass.
Maybe I can't spend much time in the Mall due to the fact that I have to spend all my descretionary funds purchasing $3.50 gas. Or, the fact that I'm unemployed because the fascist criminal corpocracy has offshored my job to southeast asia, or insourced workers from India and Mexico.
Why should I spend my hard earned funds in a Mall that only offers overpriced crap made by chinese slave wage earners. With over 43 million Americans living on food stamps, or millions living in tent cities, and approximately 30 million unemployed, exactly where is the money supposed to come from to buy more 70 in flat screens?
Going to the Mall and buying worthless crap only helps the Wall Street Fat Cats and their worthless paper pushing securities ponzi scheme.
Tell the Retailers to fuck off, buy gold, silver, and lead.
You just don't understand the MDB posts. It's sarcasm. Which doesn't work on the internets unless you are familiar with his posts.
Obviously a lot of people don't agree with your sentiment.
But, on ZH everyone is allowed their own special delusions.
My advice, cut back on the Shrooms, and you won't need the tin foil hat to block the radio waves from Obama central.
Funny the first couple times. Now you are just annoying.
Right away MDB. I'm going out to buy that couch I've been eyeing at my local Ikea.
Because I'm a Patriot, and I'm not as afraid of Arab-American cabbies as I am Deflation.
COME ON GUYS...WHO'S WITH ME?!?!
MillionDollarBonus_
Why not be productive and spend some time in the mall rather than fantasizing about these doomer scenarios.
Email me and I will give you my address, where you can send me some CASH, and I will happy and grateful to take your $$$ to da Mall.
It's so easy asking/telling other folks to spend THEIR money/savings.(Your an Obama supporter and voter no doubt).
agree...visit malls more often, consume more to boost the economy, get more credits to prop such consumption... :D
just don't let your plastic cards idle!! Who knows you may get the same treatment as Greek...get a 50% discount some time later :D a fire sale!
...
...
So Are you saying Tyler doesn't have credibility? Just this article is riddled with mis-spelled words. Is he not credible? I thought so. Who gives a fuck if he misspelled a few words
- it's the free-flow-writing,... agglutinated to, comme il`faut, that masters tyler's undulated streams of objective, relevant, and timely post! -
ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_writing
thankyou, tyler
I believe punctuation is important as well.
Puncuation is important, as it controls the cadence, and thus, how someone reads. It is a way to manipulate the readers tempo in such a way that you can control one's thoughts. Proper puncuation, however, is a non complete, because puncuation is very opinionated.
How should I control my writing? This is an art, and art is subjective. Of course, one could puncuate poorly, but for the most part, it is a matter of ploy.
PS, certain rules do exist, like apostrophes and the like, but my point is that most punctuation is for game.
Trav7777
The only credibility I need is Gold and silver in my hand.
Spend time stacking vs spelling.
if you can hold your gold and silver in your hand, YOU DON'T HAVE ENOUGH!
There's seems to be a greater quantity of off topic and pithy replies relative to the series nature of the article to which the off topic replies are posted : the size of the distraction reflects the concerned level of truth. i wonder if the intent is to bury serious on-topic in a blanket of boring crap replies, assuming readers won't bother to scroll down (nobody reads all the replies ) and read informative and agreeable responses from readers ?
Are the MBS ( mortgage backed securities ) now percieved as a liability ? Has someone woken up to the scam and now concerned that true value of these bonds could be exposed in any litigation, now that law suites are taking off all the place ?
( NB : if i search for the State of Delaware vs MERS artcile it's there, and yet if i scroll back to 10/27/2011 i cannot find it ? ? ? ?
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/state-delaware-v-merscorp-inc-biden... )
@trav7777
credibility Is to come by then if I use my spell check .. like you .
"there's not enough of it" and "you don't have that gold." you claim "the market will soar" but "the market determines that" not you. the complaint against The Americans is "they're just a nation of farmers." That complaint might be "eaten" pretty soon cuz "these farmers move that food" too. And an another thing: "stop paying government workers" and see what happens. As noted above "that includes the prison population." And on and on and on i could go. Again let me sum my argument up for the upteenth time:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ii1tc493bZM&feature=player_detailpage
If you have as solid of a grasp on economics, as you do the English language, we are going to be just fine! Amazing!
I said "relative" winners.
We're still talking Beyond Thunderdome for even the resource rich countries.
I'd rather be sitting on exportable levels of oil in a depression and therefore have a currency that is still workable than be a country whose currency is considered worthless by the rest of the world.
For example, how are you going to manufacture solar panels in the US if the Chinese say "no tellurium for you, we have no use for your monopoly money?
Economic times will be shit for Australia and Canada, no doubt. But their citizens will still be able to pull up to the pump and buy gasoline with a relatively small portion of their incomes.
We have no idea how wonderful it really is to buy a gallon of gas for a "mere" $4 right now.
Long bicycles.
Lets take gasbuddy's highest Gasoline price range $3.82 USD / Gallon
Near where I live it is approximately $1.22 CAD / Litre. Probably a mid to low range price for Canada.
1 Gallon=3.7854118 Litres
1.22CAD*3.7854118Litres=4.618202396
1 Gallon = $4.618202396 CAD
CADUSD= 1.0066
4.618202396*1.0066=4.6486825318136
So for a gallon of gas in Toronto area it will cost $4.65 USD
Side note, for whatever reason it seems they have been shutting down and scrapping refineries up here as well...
Ya, let's use bicycles. :(
you had me at phenemologically .......
i bet he uses it routinovercompensationally...
Norway and other homogeneous countries will be just fine.
If they are smart, they will immediately begin PRINTING currency to meet demand and then using it to buy up foreign countries.
They don't have to print, all they have to do is peg.
Pegging is the same as printing, except that your monetary policy is decided by foreign central banks, rather than your own.
Norway and other homogeneous countries will be just fine.
Indeed. Demographics are destiny.
How 'bout "humongous nations." How will they fare?
The Lord Humongous, warrior of the wastland, the Ayatolla of rock n' rolla?
but isn't norway and other European countries not so homgeneous anymore? Haven't they let in rather large "sharia compliant" populations in the past few years? These new immigrants aren't exactly assimilating.
I did it by Occident
Easily taken care of.................
DEPORTATION.............You Sharia their ass right back to the sand dunes.(OR else)
Dasa and trav, homogeneous countries are indeed more stable. My time in Denmark taught me that.
Demographics, the important field that few want to look at...
I am conflicted. I live in Canada but I am thinking of escaping to Denmark. Only trouble is Denmark has no oil. The Danes could go to war with Norway over that illegal agreement signed by a drunken politician. That makes the agreement invalid.
There have been studies that have proven that multiculturalism builds distrust and hinders a society from reaching it's potential.
For whatever reason, people feel like if you throw jews, muslims, blacks, whites, etc etc etc etc in the same room and lock the door that everyone is going to trust eachother and there will be nothing but trust and compliance. It's the exact opposite in the real world.
For example...I know people who refuse to make big ticket purchases in the US because we have a black president. I know business owners who refuse to hire because we have a black president. I also know business owners who go out of their way to avoid doing business in certain areas due to ethinicty.
If you look practically anywhere in the world with homogenous societies of people mainly caucasion or asian you will find success and wealth (at least low unemployment). Everywhere else is poverty, filth and disease.
I'm sure people will bitch/cry/moan about this post but at the end of the day the truth is inescapable.
None can escape your amazing powers of induction Bob.
May I call you Bob?
The only reason you feel this way is because you're a SUPER-PIG, and you exist within a small sphere of other SUPER-PIGS.
The majority of US citizens don't care about your racist, bigoted bullshit, and don't make purchases based on the color of our president.
multiculuralism is for the enslaved masses.
America's owners do not care what color of skin you are or gender or sexuality or culture or language....as long as you provide the greatest growth of profit margins, capitalists are happy. They never see you, have to deal with your stink, behavior, etc. so they don't care except profitability.
But the moment you enter their lives (politics, state department, marriage, media celebrity representation, etc.) they will let you know you are not old money material.
Unless of course you display loyalty by selling out your own kind. See black politicians. African kings also got wealthy by selling their own kind.
There are those I call brother, and those I don't. Never noticed their skin color.
They don't have to. The can let theirs appreciate because they will still export even at the higher prices. Everyone needs oil, no matter the price. People will be paying $5/gallon for it, and Norway will be rolling in the dough (doelarrs).
Not really the military will intervene and take the resources. This is happening right now. Besides most countries in Europe are already paying 7 to 12 dollars a gallon of fuel. We got it easy.
Which military? US/NATO will invade Norway? Yeah right. That will spell WWIII, but will not be supported by the status quo. It would be the NWO trying to wave the runner home when he was already out at second.
Germany could do it very easily!
I don't think so. The terrain in Norway is so difficult to invade and keep that it would make Afghanistan feel like a ping pong table. Mountains and fjords everywhere. Good luck to anyone invading Norway. Once you invade it, the hell of underground fight begins. Ever wonder why no one ever successfully invaded this country before?
They already did it in WWII, pretty quick, hardly any casualties and the Brit army and Navy was fighting on Norway's side.
Exactly. If Norway rolled over and played dead for the Nazis, what do you think they will do when a Nimitz class strike force shows up to play?
German military???????!!! Bwhwhwhwhwwaaaaaaaaahaa the local rotc marching band could take on germanys military. Puhhhlleaaase.
Majority of Norway's state revenues, exports, investments, share of GDP are in the petroleum sector
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/8/16/saupload_norway_oil_sec...
Norway is just a blonde version of Saudi Arabia. US/UK will have diplomatic relations to save the royal family's wealth in natural resources.
So what you are saying is by Norway dumping the dollar, it is just a ploy by the Brit'ish to destabolize America, because the Royal Family is still pissed about America gaining its independence?
Makes sense.....
world is not growing so only so many colonies. Growth of America at this point can only come from taking away colonies from other old world order. New world order doesn't mean new "world order"...it is "new world" order. As in America the new world first.
British are collaborating with America against Russia, China, and EU, but when the times comes, royals will want the control back.
But brit royals are smart....they planted a competition north of US in Canada which Queen still owns. As recently as 2008, queen exercised her powers to prorogue Canada's elected parliament in order to probably let PM carry out her orders.
When prince william got married, he went around the world not for fun but to put his face out there to all of british empire's colonies. It is the royals asserting their power. Oh yeah....and they don't pay taxes.
Folks - you still confuse winning the original battle with winning the war. The same mistakes Americans made invading other countries. Yes - you can put Nimitz class AC there, bomb the hell out of the country, but this does not mean winning. I have said it very clearly - it is nearly impossible to keep the country for long time.
Unfortunatelly, your logic is the same logic that led the Pentagon to start all these idiotic wars. You win at the beginning, then you spend trillions of dollars, while coffins are streaming back to our shores.
Folks - Europeans have at least four thousand years of history, full of wars, and invasions. They know how to win a war after losing the first battles. Something the USA, with its microscopic 200+years of history hasn't learnt, and not even trying, based on what I read here.
slaves have no plans
wall st. traders have 1 day plans to survive beyond black swans
main st. has 1/4 year plans to survive beyond price volatilities
farmers have 1 year plans to survive beyond business trends
governments have 10 year plans to survive beyond famines
royal families have 100 year plans to survive beyond wars
religious institutions have 1000 year plans to survive beyond dynasties
it's not somuch about survival of the fittest....it is about survival of most resilient.
In WW11 Germany sent 3 warships with a few thousand troops and a few administrators and took over Norway, hardly a shot was fired
Somehow Germany lost the war - no? But the start was easy. The end was very painfull. No - it wasn't Americans who solely liberated Europe - but they helped big way. It was Russians and Poles. Very few know, that the first flag to fly over the Branderburg gate was Polish - for few minutes, and then Russians arrived and put their flag on top of it.
Poland = puppet government for Russia in order to divide & conquer the old Prussian Empire
seems world war 3 is happening, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Yeman, Pakistan, US forces in Uganda and Burundi, probably Syria, Iran, Somalia soon. Then there are the war games around China, first with South Korea, next our new BFF Vietnam, India sending missiles to Vietnam to counter China. Looks like an endless war, like the war on drugs
I agree, but there will be a point when the US/NATO can not procure enough oil to fund its War Machine.
empires don't necessarily seek profit but to control. US elites are ok with net zero profit from oil wars as long as they get to control it and keep the status quo. Conservation of status is more important than growth. You do that by blocking emerging economies from profitting off of industrial activity which require raw materials and energy such as oil to produce.
US wants to control the 3 critical elements of global economy to maintain her empire:
no matter what OWS does, liberal, conservative, tea party, liberitarian, nazi, all seek to control 3 factors above. Otherwise US will have to compete on production output like any other country most likely by enslaving their own population.
GCT
Europe are already paying 7 to 12 dollars a gallon of fuel.
You meant liter?
See we are unique in this sense, we are sitting on multiple billions upon billions of known untapped reserves of oil.( The Eco Nazi's are keeping it from being pumped),the US produces 65% of the oil we use now, 35% from these left overs, and reserves could make us easily INDEPENDENT of ME oil.
There is an estimated 65% left in most capped and set aside wells.(technology was not available to get to the bulk), now it is.
And the estimated LEFT overs, known reserves are over 1 Trillion barrels.
Gas is expensive in europe but cars are more efficient. Stick shift Diesel small-engine car can give you 40 mpg to offset the fuel prices.
But they do have expensive tollways.
At least in France:
but but you mean diversity is not strength?
Trust. Infinite Demand, Scarce supply.
As Governments and Banksters continue with their jiggery-pokery trust will disappear entirely.
John Maynard Keynes proposed a theory on how to bridge the demand gap thru government spending.
He did not suggest printing money and borrowing infinitely to support criminality.
Bravo. We are all going to really miss a trust economy.
You do know that a country's industrial base need not be 100% devoted to exports, right?
With a rising currency, the savers of that country get increased purchasing power. They get to BUY EVERYTHING for next to nothing, just like Americans, British, and French did when they visited Germany during hyperinflation. The idea that a country must sacrifice its currency to preserve its export sector is absurd on its face. You only need exports when you don't have anything that foreign countries want. If they want your currency, then that is as good as any export--actually better, because it requires no effort.
Sacrificing the entire economy to save one sector makes ZERO mathematical sense. If people want to work for nothing, they can certainly feel free to go work in another country for a hyperinflating currency.
I couldn't say it better.
massive breaking and entering may ensue. But they'll have to get through my mossberg semi auto double ot buck first. we hold our own in the country. some of us are prepared. looters will be shot.
and maybe if we throw piles of fiat at the zombie looters they will be distracted.
Single aught is a better option. There are 9 projectiles instead of 18, the spread pattern is smaller, but the devastation within the pattern is much greater due to the fact that those 9 projectiles comprise the same mass as 18 do in double aught.
1 double, 1 single, 1 slug. Cock the double to let them know you're ready, fire the double to let them know you mean business. Fire the single to let them know it hurts. Fire the slug to make a mess of the place with their entrails.
DormRoom said:
"Commodity based nations, like Canada & Australia will experience severe Dutch disease, as inflows into their currencies, as an inflation hedge, destroys the manufacturing sector.
massive layoffs will ensue.
And as prices climb, but not output, commodity based, developed nation will be entrenched in accelerating stagflation. There is no escape. "
Sure there's an escape: the CBs of such nations buy physical gold, printing to do so if necessary, thereby bidding up the exchange rate of gold in their currency and sequestering surplus value from their currency into their gold reserves. This devalues their currency while retaining that value in their gold.
Should not enough gold be immediately available to achieve these ends, the CB in question simply raises its bid until there is, and their currency is sufficiently devalued. Of course it helps if like the ECB, the Russians, the Indians and so many others the CB in question publicly mark their gold reserves to market in their own currency on their balance sheet. They are publicly valuing their currency in gold when they do so.
Problem solved, case closed.
All the elasticity the system requires is to be found in the value of gold which is why it must trade freely... paper gold is the only thing currently stopping elemental physical gold from performing this function, and when the need is great enough these will no longer trade at par as they do now. Someone/thing will bid up physical when they need to.
Physical gold is currently massively discounted; I trust you are taking advantage.
I blog about my perspectives on this a little here.
You can read about it in much greater depth here, here, and here.
Of course a CB with gold reserves can do just the opposite if need be, and sell gold in order to strengthen the value of their currency too.
Useful stuff. Seems to give one... sovereignty?
Who would have thought?
Works just as well at other scales too, from collectives to individuals, assisting a sovereign of whatever size manage their flow of value.
Though there are few typos such as 'exasterbating' (vs exasperating), 'Phenemologically' (vs Phenomenologically) but DormRoom's posting didn't break the logic. His arguments are just solid.
However, aside from the apparent risks (unlawful or criminal breaking; govt confiscation etc), it's still better to hold most of the surplus in physical silver & gold than the fiat currency, the FRN or other paper assets!
Nonetheless in a great chaotic situation, life will just be pretty difficult...just imagine that in the extreme misery even if you're ok, other unfortunate ones may just rob you :) you gun down one, 10 is coming; you gun down 10, may be another 100 is chasing you... depends on how bad life is at that time... :D
...until the US bombers appear overhead. USA! USA! USA!
Best thing a country could do is arm its people as much as possible, recall its gold, and begin FEVERISHLY working on thermonuclear bombs and the tech to deliver them. Only then could they be concievably safe.
Canada and Australia are not immune from a financial meltdown. Housing is the biggest bugaboo and in Canada, the bubble still hovers over the fields-but any moment it will pop. The ability to service our massive debts will be difficult. (I am a Canadian-but not a homeowner)
"It sort of helps sitting on - considering the population size - vast energy fortunes." -- EscapeKey
It sounds like Norway is going to be getting a NATO enforced "no-fly zone," and the people "liberated" from an imminent "humanitarian crisis" any day now.
Why would anyone invest in the bonds from a country run by a muslim mugabe from Chicago?
Because he offers all the crack hopium you can smoke and it's all rounded up to the nearest dollar so you won't need to make change.
I love the smell of Fresh raising gold in the morning .
So, what will they do going forward? Jump from the US ponzi scheme to the european monster circular jerk rescue fund ponzi scheme? Judging by the "success" going into Greek govies, EFSF will seem like a screaming buy to them, of course until it doesn't.
They buy a natural gas company in North Dakota. In fact "they've already done that." Given that "the country of Norway" has already pronounced "Greece as perfectly healthy!" back in December I imagine they have to come up with..."the money" from somewhere. Well...when you sell debt holdings held by the United States Government you get...MONEY.
INFLATION FELATIO!
This is the last weekend to take advantage of anything and everything that isn't nailed down.
Monday is going to be fun.
do not be long gold. Hold it. Love it. Do not be long it however.
Don't worry, the gold belongs to us
;)
It's just for the interm until the eventual big ass war hits, then gold, silver, whatever fiat won't mean fuck all.
How will the US military/NATO have their war without oil? The US/NATO alliance is doomed to fail.
Please.
The only oil the US doesn't own via owning the dictators in place (S.A., Canada, etc) or could easily take (Venezula, Norway, Libya, etc) is the oil fields in south russia/'stans'.
Hmmm... Looks like it might end up in a US/Russia dance after all...
Is Libya on line after the War that was waged by the US/NATO coalition? Irq has far less oil than the US hoped, which is why the military is fleeing (except for mercs). Easily take Venezula? If you want war with Sur America. War with Russia? Now the US is fighting the whole world with its fiat ponzi slip-sliding away!
The US can not afford war right now, or else it will end up like Rome; its Treasury depleted and its forces spread too thin.
disabledvet,
do not be long gold. Hold it. Love it. Do not be long it however
And, what do you suggest takes it's place once you Get rid of it?.
I know the talk of Parabolic, blah,blah, blah.
You cannot purchase land with it(because the .gubs will appropriate it,or make the taxes on it so high, you cannot afford to keep it....................so that's out.
Anything else of value must be able to not spoil or perish, that leaves out food stuffs(where are you going to hang your hat, and how much room do/will you have to store whatever it is to replace gold, once gone?.
Or, maybe I missed the jist, did you mean to say do not BELONG to Gold?.........I agree.
If that's not what you meant some suggestions for alternatives.
Paper anything will be O_U_T.
Land will be impossible to retain,unless you have an inside track.And lot's of WHATEVER takes golds place as money.
Nowhere to run, Nowhere to hide.
When I first started buying Au, I thought there would be a few countries left standing, and would always be able to move it to them for a price.
Not so now..........everyone that's anyone APPEARS to be going down.I also thought these same few, would have a old currency, compared to ours and the EU...................now that APPEARS to be incorrect also.
------And lot's of WHATEVER takes golds place as money.
Cows
Hogs
Chickens
Eggs
Etc.
Another EOTWAWKI call like you made a couple of months ago?
How much worse do you want it?
Time for a color revolution in Norway.
Naw, I think Norway just labeled itself as a "terrorist". Anytime anyone has done something outside of the US influence, they seem to catch a bad case of dead with a side of revolution.
Curse their freedom hating fiscal responsibility! They hate US for their freedom (to print)!
Are these the same that PIMCO is buying en mass?
From another website:
• U.S. Tax revenue: $2,170,000,000,000
• Fed budget: $3,820,000,000,000
• New debt: $ 1,650,000,000,000
• National debt: $14,271,000,000,000
• Recent budget cut: $ 38,500,000,000
Who the fuck would really like to continue investing into USA? Eurozone numbers are nowhere near that bad.
And yet is "Europe" (that would be an entire...CONTINENT) that is going bankrupt. I say "Credit Default Swap." HONOR YOUR OBLIGATIONS.
Yes, but Tyler showed us who is on the board which makes the default judgements: the same big U.S. banks which wrote the CDS's. They aren't going to call a default and make themselves pay.
Got bombs?
Tim73
" Eurozone numbers are nowhere near that bad"
...are you sure about that?
see for yourself:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2010/may/27/debt-deficit-oecd-countries-data
Why didn't they just wait? Soon enough, the Fed will buy all of the agency MBS outstanding.
SWF's & central banks are buying Gold to diversify. Does anyone know if any CB's, SWF's, or countries have any stockpiled Silver alongside Gold? Are any big players (besides Sprott) buying Silver yet? Central banks and countries have historically used and held Silver along side of Gold. It would be strange to me if they weren't buying Silver.
why would they stockpile an industrial metal that is not particularly scarce?
If they wanted to stockpile, palladium and platinum are far better candidates
Silver historically like Gold is money. And CB's and governments had it. Now these groups and governments are falling back to Gold as another form of reserves and wisely so. Why wouldn't they also turn back to Silver?
"turn back?" Some people Mr. Hearst never left. Now let us ponder again Eric Sprott's "Silver to Gold" ratio...that would be...400 dollar an ounce silver. Hmmm. Sounds about right. What's the problem? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odpxabURHYY&feature=player_detailpage
Oh, look! A Spanish Banker!
Granted some (smart) people never left. But what about these big organizations and governments? They are openly buying Gold again. Are they buying Silver in stealth? Does the Silver not exist to buy in any meaningful quantities?
Hearst,
Why wouldn't they also turn back to Silver?
Not enough physical to go around.
A lot more gold above ground than silver,and thousands more mines.
Rare for a silver only mine to be set up.
Ah yes, more faux willful ignorance from Trav. He loves to toss out shit like this in the vain hope that someone will believe him and be impoverished by not owning any silver when the price moves to reflect the supply/demand situation. That way, the newly impoverished person will die, and he will have more precious oil all to himself.
Oil is much better than gold/silver
The fact is people need oil, people don't need gold/silver.
The population hit 7 billion recently...I'm willing to bet it will probably increase from here and known reserves are declining.
When I stockpile 50 gallon drums of oil, how do you deal with the shortage of space? I'd really like to know since our house is rather small.
Futures market.
You can own 100,000 barrels of oil and never see it although if you wanted you could take delivery.
Or if you didn't want to be so direct about it you could always buy some Chevron which pays a 3.8% div. which is higher than any UST. I can also assure you...Chevron ain't goin bankrupt anytime soon.
heh, not to mention you can't just pump your car with plain ol crude. You'll need to figure out how to refine it, with out blowing up the stash.
And assuming the streets aren't littered with empty cars blocking the way of your nicely fueled car.
(err in scenario of overpriced oil/gasoline)
I agree, but it is difficult to store oil, or any type of energy. You have to use paper products, which are open to market manipulation (witness the Brent/WTI spread).
And I beg to differ that people don't need silver. Silver use is required for numerous industries, especially electronics. Silver might be replaced with new advanced materials (like graphene), but the tech isn't there yet. Further, gold and silver are a claim on wealth which can not be diluted by central banks. They do serve an important function as money, a role that will only grow as governments around the world start collapsing under the weight of their debts.
I don't think the Brent/WTI spread is due to manipulation.
More than have of the north sea reserves (brent crude) have been depleted. I would expect that as we get to 40%, 30%. 20% of reserves that the price of Brent will continue up up and up. Also there was some talk about Cushing having reached capacity, but I'm not getting into that right now.
So how did WTI drop right after the SPR release, when JPM bought the whole lot and anchored it offshore in a tanker? There was no increase in direct supply? Was it that JPM could now locate their short positions a la the tanker? I think so, and that, my friend, is manipulation.
Oil is a very speculative market. For example, on average how much physical oil is traded? Maybe what, 85 million barrels on average? Well, over 3 billion barrels are being traded (on average) in the market.
Because it's such a big market it's not easy to manipulate. For example, one could argue that the SPR release was manipulation, right? Obama released the oil to curry favor from his constituency by hopefully lowering the price of oil. That sounds like the definition of manipulation right? Well, guess what? There was a buyer for that oil (JPM). Why do you think JPM bought the oil? Because it was a good fucking deal from their perception.
And then they could issue shorts against it. And they abide by no rules of leverage, and can and do short 100x1.
You make a good point, that it is a hard market to manipulate, but there are ways. Short silver, keep silver's price down, and you keep oil down, since oil and silver trade 1:1. Keep oil down, you keep the dollar up. Keep the dollar up, you have your purchasing power and ability to continue shorting. It is one big wash.
The main problem, as it seems to me, is that "oil" price is reported as WTI, when Brent is more widely used in production the the actuall things we use, ie gasoline. As it is really a reletively small part of the market, and easy to manipulate (versus the total REAL cost of oil), the "oil" price is likely manipulated.