US Plans To Issue $846 Billion In Treasurys In The Next 6 Months, 35% More Than Previous Year

Tyler Durden's picture

Since obviously nobody in charge has learned anything at all, and all the old school games will continue until they no longer can, and demand for US paper, already plunging at the international level, disappears (aside from the Fed of course: the Fed will always be a happy last ditch monetizer of one-ply US paper), here is the Treasury's just released schedule for bond issuance for Fiscal Q1 (Oct-Dec 2011), and Q2 (Jan-March 2012), which amounts to $305 billion and $541 billion, respectively, or a total of $846 billion in 6 months, a $141 billion run rate per month. This compares to a total of $628 billion issued over the comparable period a year ago (although granted the Treasury did burn a whopping $225 billion in cash in Q1 of 2010). In other words, the US Treasury is planning on issuing 35% more in the first half of the fiscal year than a year previously, even though this time last year the Fed was monetizing all gross issuance, and even though the European EFSF was not about to ramp up issuance and soak up hundreds of billions of excess fixed income targeted capital. Now we only have some vague, ineffectively sterilized duration transfer operation which is doing nothing to lift belly demand, and merely takes care of the long end (while the Fed's promise to keep rates at zero until 2013 makes all bonds 2 years and less to be off zero effective duration). We doubt this schedule is even remotely sustainable without some imminent form of Large Scale Asset Purchase program being implement (with or without MBS monetization: for a definitive answer on this issue, please call 949-720-6226), and none of that Nominal GDP targeting mumbo jumbo. Unlike Europe, the Fed knows that money talks, and bullshit targeting walks.

From the Treasury:

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of net marketable borrowing for the October – December 2011 and the January - March 2012 quarters:

  • During the October – December 2011 quarter, Treasury expects to issue $305 billion in net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $60 billion.  This borrowing estimate is $21 billion higher than announced in July 2011.  The increase in borrowing relates to lower receipts, higher outlays, and changes in the cash balance assumptions partially offset by higher net issuances of State and Local Government Series securities.
  • During the January - March 2012 quarter, Treasury expects to issue $541 billion in net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $60 billion.

During the July - September 2011 quarter, Treasury issued $286 billion in net marketable debt, and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $58 billion.  In July 2011, Treasury estimated $331 billion in net marketable borrowing and assumed an end-of-September cash balance of $110 billion.  The decrease in borrowing was related to lower receipts offset by lower outlays and cash balance adjustments that lowered the estimated end-of-quarter cash balance.

And here is the full breakdown. Compare the projected two quarters with the comparable prior period.

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lolmao500's picture

Yep, that means a deficit of 1.692 trillion... and since it's the treasury saying that, you bet they are underestimating it, as always.

One month in the fiscal year and already 203 billion in debt.

strannick's picture

We doubt this schedule is even remotely sustainable without some imminent form of Large Scale Asset Purchase program being implement

Bring on the QEasy Money. Be nice if some genius like Tyler or J.Richards would do us all the favour of calculating when Twist will have run its course and QE3 will be rolled out of the showroom.

redpill's picture

This is contingent upon another debt ceiling raise, no?

UP Forester's picture

Who cares about the ceiling when the roof is on fire?

Michael's picture

The banking system they created on Jekyll Island, GA really really sucks.

Who sold us this product and where is the return department?

You sell really shitty financial products.

Michael's picture

Pensions? Pensions? You 25% of the population who get pensions don't get no stinking pensions.

You get whatever the government has in their bank accounts.

Zero Credit!

Michael's picture

I was really rooting for the Irish to tell the banksters to go fuck themselves like Iceland did.

It's nice the Greeks finally got up the balls to tell the banksters to go fuck themselves.

I'm rooting for the Greeks now. Lets just say about the Irish, I'm disappointed. 

AldousHuxley's picture

How about North Korean communist way? Kim shot the central bank chief in the head.

AldousHuxley's picture

Who cares about the roof of a bankster's house? Let it collapse and everyone else can cash in on the CDS protection on the house.


Nothing like shorting bank stocks.....

NewThor's picture

Bernanke will announce QE3 tomorrow. Just a weird guess.

AldousHuxley's picture

Federal reserve to the American public
The Fed says:

"Quantitative easing will continue until the economy improves".

These are big words that many people do not understand, so let me rephrase it in a way which people CAN understand:

"The beatings will continue until morale improves".

nothing can go wrogn's picture

I think it's debatable as to whether they will even publicly announce QE 3 thru QE infinity.

Belarus's picture

A stock market crash could fund the treasury with plenty of takers. It's that, or LSAP, or failed auctions. Given the Europe spillover effects, and that by March of next year it'll be clear to all we're in a world wide depression, I'm just gonna have to guess it'll be LSAP given Ben's proclivity for stock ramping. 

philipat's picture

What happens if the Chinese decide they prefer Gold? But, of course, that is why the price of Gold is being manipulated.

Sequitur's picture

Tylers, one and all, please keep posting these kinds of stories. Chronicle the insanity that is the U.S. debt bubble.

Greece? Italy? A mere sideshow to the massive black debt hole that is the United States of America. Unquestionably the U.S.A. has passed the debt event horizon. It's only a matter of time before the North American colonies meet the singularity. It really is game over, Congress, the Fed and Treasury simply are "taking a knee" while the clock runs out.

Again, keep up these posts. I believe, truly, the Zhedge archives will be an important part of the historical record, and future generations can read, page by page, the financial implosion of the United States.

SPADOC4's picture

$1 x 60 seconds/minute x 1,440 minutes/day x 365.25 days/year x 53,616 years = $1.692 Trillion


Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

We're so far beyond fucked, we can't even catch a ride back to fucked

Spitzer's picture

The Treasury and the Fed can do no wrong.  Not yet anyway...

Nobody special's picture

It's wonderful when you can be your own buyer.  Not only can you never have a failed auction, when push comes to shove you can use some of that overseas monetization to simulate foreign demand.  Smoke, mirrors, and one hell of a Houdini show.  Who needs credibility?  On with the performance!

eaglefalcon's picture

being your own buyer is a disgusting act of auto-eroticism

fockewulf190's picture

Lets just call it being a financial wanker.

drivenZ's picture

do we know how much is maturing on the feds BS in the first half of 12'?

Unprepared's picture

it's rotting, rotting ... not maturing

Yen Cross's picture

 Overlays ! , I say!     TRUTH!

NewThor's picture

Won't the all the money flowing out of Euro markets flow into treasuries and usa stocks?


Yen Cross's picture

  Yes , it will flow into [ usd ] , and then into T- 10's.  I understand  your frustration. Technically ( lower) yields mean a softer dollar.

Shvanztanz's picture

Canned goods, batteries, water, candles, MATCHES or LIGHTERS, rice, rice, rice, spam, tuna, pens, paper, typewriter, solar powered calculator. CAN OPENER!

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

Water cleaning devices.  Guns & ammo.  Prescription meds.  Gold & silver.

saulysw's picture

"feminine hygiene" products and toilet paper.

pods's picture

Stock up on CS instead of the antibiotics.  And have a couple bars of pemmican in the BoB at least.  High calorie density.  The Berkey is a great water filter, you can even get a fluoride filter for them.


msorense's picture

Obviously QE3 is coming no later than January of next year.

Unprepared's picture

A million here, a billion there. Pretty soon  we would be talking about casualties.

saulysw's picture

Nope, you are off in your scale. It's not millions/billions. It's becoming trillions/quadrillions.

bernorange's picture

That's going to buy a lot of "$16 muffins".

ZeroPoint's picture

And watch gas go to 7-8 dollars a gallon, and food prices shoot up another 20%.


It's going to end very badly and bloody.


BorisTheBlade's picture

Unrest in the Middle East this year will look like a joke next year when finally inflation hits the rice prices. There goes Asia.

Shvanztanz's picture

I finally opened up a can of spam to see what I had been storing. I haven't eaten that shit since childhood. It's not too fuckin bad. Stock up on spam. Alas Babylon!

kito's picture

look for cans without BPA (used in linings). its a nasty chemical, known endocrine disrupter, that leeches into your food. trader joes sells much of their canned food without bpa

tmosley's picture

BPA only has a negative effect on young boys, fyi.  It imitates estrogen, and as such, interferes with sexual development based on testosterone.  Adult males have an excess of testosterone, and are already fully developed, so small levels of BPA have no effect.

So it should be avoided by pregnant women and boys under the age of 14.  But you can't, because the shit is literally everywhere, including the water.

Matt's picture

BPA may be associated with obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, problems with thyroid and pancreas, reduced sexual desire and erectile dysfunction. So no, really nothing bad at all if you're a male over 14.


for starters. Apparently over 6.4 billion pounds per year is manufacturered, so thats comforting.

Blank Reg's picture

 I read Alas Babylon 30 years ago in High School. Good book. 

Gavrikon's picture

The only thing possibly worse than Spam is starvation.

saulysw's picture

"Corned beef and pork and beans" is a recipe my wife uses on rare occasions. Fry the Spam with onions, removing any of the white stuff you might find (don't ask, don't tell). When nearing end (some will crisp up a bit), move aside and fry an egg. Boil some white rice. Heat up some baked beans. Put it all on a plate and eat with some tomato sauce. I don't know why it's called "Corned beef and pork and beans", because I can't find much pork there, but it makes an ok meal. Seriously, don't knock it until you've tried it.

Edit : Actually, I realize it's tinned Corned Beef she uses, not spam. Still, until she cooked this for me, I assumed both were more or less inedible.

Temporalist's picture

I have fried Spam and then put it into soups like split pea and lentil, or it can go in right out of the can and heated in the soup.

Can add diced Spam in with some frozen peas and butter/olive oil in a sauce pan with some onion and garlic and put it over pasta with some parmesean cheese like a Hobo carbonara.

Diced Spam fried with potatoes and onions and cayenne pepper for some spicy hash browns.

Thinly sliced into strips for Chef salad.

Put in a processor and add some celery and/or Italian peppers and oilve oil to make it spread like for crackers.

Sautee it with mushrooms and onions and eat with eggs.

Put in a quiche with cheddar or pepper jack and zuchinni.


Or just use it to defend yourself and throw the can at a would be attacker.

Melin's picture

Note to self: don't read ZH comments before breakfast.

Canucklehead's picture

An old recipe for fried Spam is to dip slices of it in beaten egg and then dredge it through crushed cracker crumbs and fried.  It's good.

...Memories of the childhood and camping...

El Gordo's picture

Let's see - issuing more than originally planned due to (1) lower revenues and (2) higher outlays than first estimated.  Who would have ever guess those estimates to be off in this direction?