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As US Rakes Largest Monthly Deficit In History, 2012 Tax Revenues Net Of Refunds Trail 2011

Tyler Durden's picture


A few days ago we noted that based on preliminary data, the February budget deficit would hit $229 billion (yes, nearly one quarter of a trillion in one month, about where real Greek GDP is these days) - the largest single monthly deficit in history. Unfortunately, this number was low: the final February deficit was just released and the actual print is $231.7 billion. It also means that in the first 5 months of the fiscal year, the US has raked up $580 billion in deficits, oddly matched by $727 billion in new debt issuance, 25% more new debt issued than needed to fund deficits... And that in itself would not be horrible - February is traditionally the worst month for deficits as the Treasury sees a surge in tax refund issuance - if it wasn't for something even more troubling. As the second chart below shows, through last Friday, and net of tax refunds, total US tax revenues were actually lower in the fiscal 2012 year to date period than compared to 2011, by just under $2 billion, at $625.5 billion. Which is the weakest link for any argument that the US is actually growing: what is growing is America's debt (now almost exponentially), while its revenues are at best unchanged. And the scariest: annualizing net tax revenues brings the number to $1.5 trillion. Which is just 50% more where total US debt interest will be in 2014 when debt is $20 trillion, assuming interest rates are somehow allowed to go back up... to the astronomical level of 5%.

Monthly deficits:

and net US tax revenues:

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Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:04 | 2248045 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

You have a printer.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:10 | 2248071 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

good for equities ?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:15 | 2248085 redpill
redpill's picture

Just in time for CERN to finish work on the antimatter-powered printing press they've been secretly working on.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:22 | 2248110 greased up deaf guy
greased up deaf guy's picture

"... total US tax revenues were actually lower in the fiscal 2012 year to date period than compared to 2011..."

it's a good thing the fed and the gov't maintain a strong dollar policy.  oh, wait...

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:24 | 2248116 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

Ron Paul is clearly an extremist for not wanting to continue with the very non-extreme and very serious policies of extrajudicial killing, unilateral "pre-emptive" war, bases around the world, the biggest debt in history, the drug war, etc.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:28 | 2248128 LuKOsro
LuKOsro's picture

Where art thou debt ceiling ? Will you show your wretched face before or after the elections ?



Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:32 | 2248140 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

After.  Timmy will raid retirement funds to keep Obama on the campaign trail and out of the debt ceiling negotiations conference room.

Of course, Boehner and his toadies don't want to be in that conference room either so they can go home and lie to voters like any other politician.

Maybe if they are truly hitting the ceiling too soon, they'll legislate a suspension of the daily calendar until after the election.  See, that way the money doesn't run out.  It will be September 30 this year all the way to Dec 31.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:40 | 2248166 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

I remember when a $231 billion deficit was bad for a YEAR. This is seriously fucked up.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:42 | 2248170 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

I do remember.

And it was.

And it is.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:44 | 2248180 ilion
ilion's picture

I can't wait when Obummer starts blaming Iran for all of this.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:54 | 2248201 WTFx10
WTFx10's picture

He's an employee, did you expect a thinking employee?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 16:22 | 2248324 withnmeans
withnmeans's picture

Here is a little tid bit that I have been preaching for 20 plus years, I'm glad to see somebody write a book on it. This is about the American way of life, not my life, but the lives of most of them. We cannot live without the Credit Card. As we MSM use it, so does our government, nobody seems to learn.

Its a great read !!!


Mon, 03/12/2012 - 18:46 | 2248835 oldman
oldman's picture

Dear Crash,

Don't you think that you are being far too cynical?

Have you lost complete faith in the 'American Dream'?

Perhaps, we here at ZH do not comprehend 'reality'               om


Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:39 | 2248165 resurger
resurger's picture

 you can serf in Diego Garcia..

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:47 | 2248184 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

Yeah, you would laugh at the fucktards who say Ron Paul's ideas are scary, if the reality of the shit we're in wasn't so damn sad.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:44 | 2248178 FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture


How's that HOPEY!-CHANGEY! thingy workin out for ya?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:51 | 2248196 bloostar
bloostar's picture

That made me chuckle, even as a non-physicist, whom I dare say, if reading, are wetting their pants. 1 up

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:12 | 2248077 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

America will borrow about 35% of spending this year.  That's how the spending will be funded.

Japan will borrow 49% of spending this year.  They fund spending that way.  50% borrowing.  

The world is insane.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:13 | 2248079 Popo
Popo's picture

The world is not insane.

It is collapsing.

Next comes war.   It always does.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:27 | 2248120 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Chart number 2 is really important.

We haven't had a tax cut vs last year.  The payroll tax cut is unchanged.  Neutral.

We've had a REDUCTION in unemployment.  Where is the tax revenue from those newly employed people now at work getting paid and paying taxes?

We've had GDP growth > 0 from 2011 to 2012.  Where is that growth in tax revs?

We've had population increase.  Where is the growth in tax revs?

It's all bullshit.  All of it.  Lies from here to forever.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:35 | 2248130 redpill
redpill's picture


Central planners are like an addict or a hardened ex-con.  The addict keeps using despite the health impact and the hardened ex-con tries to get back in the clink after being unable to deal with the real world.  Just the same central planners keep borrowing and spending.  Why?

Because they don't know any other way to live.  

The difference is of course when the addict relapses or the institutionalized criminal reoffends, they (mostly) only impact themselves.  The central planners will destroy the economies of the western world because they literally do not know to do anything but what they are doing.  They are addicted to the conveniences of inflating the money supply, they are institutionalized by Keynesian economics, and nothing will stop them until reality finally brings it crashing down.


Mon, 03/12/2012 - 17:02 | 2248497 real
real's picture
Central planners, are different then planners based on realistic projections of fuel capacity.
Mon, 03/12/2012 - 18:48 | 2248841 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

I wouldn't blame it all on the ChairSatan; add in democanrepublicrat Congress + entitlement groups, +corporate special interests, +govt employees in general.  Might even be a little blame left over for that guy/gal U see in the mirror. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Yes.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 16:12 | 2248255 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Where is the tax revenue from those newly employed people now at work getting paid and paying taxes?

And for those who are working (me), we also are making less than we ever have.  That means less money the gov't can collect from e.

Yet again, allowing corporations to keep my wages down through monetary easing is a great way to "give me a tax cut". 

So not only are our taxes going UP, but my pay is not keeping up wit hinflation, never mind the interest on the debt I owe.

Didn't these motherfuckers take Ivy League mathematics courses?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:18 | 2248097 lineskis
lineskis's picture

Do You HaZ a PrinZter?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:04 | 2248046 Marge N. Callz
Marge N. Callz's picture

Yes but was is the "seasonally adjusted" monthly deficit??? 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:12 | 2248074 Going Loco
Going Loco's picture


Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:44 | 2248181 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

Unusually warm winter means more economic activity, thus more debt/deficit.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:56 | 2248205 resurger
resurger's picture


if it's cloudy = you Sell Stocks

if it's Sunny = you Buy Stocks



Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:05 | 2248051 Gunga
Gunga's picture

The chart is saying "Inflationary default on US dollar denominated debt is coming."

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:05 | 2248053 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Debt is money.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:11 | 2248075 Buzz Fuzzel
Buzz Fuzzel's picture

Spending other peoples money is Debt.


Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:06 | 2248054 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

don't tell the the IMF!

we'll get troika'd!

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:06 | 2248055 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture


Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:06 | 2248056 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Errm, this is not good, right?


Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:07 | 2248058 Spartan
Spartan's picture

Its ok, looking at CNBC, FT, WSJ, etc nobody seems to care anymore....iPad 3 is out this week right?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:15 | 2248084 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Here's my summary of CNBS today:


"What's important here, is I'm holding a bar of gold..tee-hee." - Bob Pisani

"Buy all banks like a raging crack whore on payday." - Dick Bove

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 16:06 | 2248131 tickhound
tickhound's picture

That Pisani piece was freaking AWKWARD.

It shows that gold in NOT for everyone.  There's something about Bob holding a 400 0z "London Jerky" gold bar that sends an oh HELL NO! shock-vibe through the body.

I'll worry when they send Maria with a helmut down a mine shaft.  Pisani?? aw na, na, na, no no noooooooooooooooo.... Might as well be a hit piece on gold.

Update:  Pisani just let Maria hold the bar. 


Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:08 | 2248063 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Time for another load of freeze dried... Won't be long now. They can't and don't want it stopped. They want it to collapse to take complete control of everyone.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 16:36 | 2248388 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

From whom?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:08 | 2248064 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Have no fear!!! Just as soon as those lazy fuckers start applying for McJobs all will be well!!!


Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:10 | 2248072 e92335i08
e92335i08's picture

They need a collapse to lower oil prices and wipe out some debt then prime the system with some more ben bersneaky money.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:10 | 2248073 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Clearly we need to raise taxes on those who produce, which is to say, the smallest piece of the revenue pie. 

In other words, those who create wealth need to step it up---the leeches demand their checks!

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 17:04 | 2248511 real
real's picture

there is no fixing this system

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:13 | 2248078 Argos
Argos's picture

Just bought more ammo this morning.  Good timing I guess.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:19 | 2248099 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Who were you planning to shoot?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:23 | 2248115 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

it's the "not planning to shoot" list you want to strive for.  The other list you mentioned isn't as important then.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:14 | 2248081 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Juuuuust what the Keynesian squared voodoo doctors ordered. Satisfaction guaranteed! Lol!

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 15:15 | 2248086 navy62802
navy62802's picture

Speaking of tax refunds, has anyone else's refund check from the IRS taken longer than usual to arrive?

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