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As US Rakes Largest Monthly Deficit In History, 2012 Tax Revenues Net Of Refunds Trail 2011
A few days ago we noted that based on preliminary data, the February budget deficit would hit $229 billion (yes, nearly one quarter of a trillion in one month, about where real Greek GDP is these days) - the largest single monthly deficit in history. Unfortunately, this number was low: the final February deficit was just released and the actual print is $231.7 billion. It also means that in the first 5 months of the fiscal year, the US has raked up $580 billion in deficits, oddly matched by $727 billion in new debt issuance, 25% more new debt issued than needed to fund deficits... And that in itself would not be horrible - February is traditionally the worst month for deficits as the Treasury sees a surge in tax refund issuance - if it wasn't for something even more troubling. As the second chart below shows, through last Friday, and net of tax refunds, total US tax revenues were actually lower in the fiscal 2012 year to date period than compared to 2011, by just under $2 billion, at $625.5 billion. Which is the weakest link for any argument that the US is actually growing: what is growing is America's debt (now almost exponentially), while its revenues are at best unchanged. And the scariest: annualizing net tax revenues brings the number to $1.5 trillion. Which is just 50% more where total US debt interest will be in 2014 when debt is $20 trillion, assuming interest rates are somehow allowed to go back up... to the astronomical level of 5%.
Monthly deficits:
and net US tax revenues:
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You have a printer.
good for equities ?
Just in time for CERN to finish work on the antimatter-powered printing press they've been secretly working on.
"... total US tax revenues were actually lower in the fiscal 2012 year to date period than compared to 2011..."
it's a good thing the fed and the gov't maintain a strong dollar policy. oh, wait...
Ron Paul is clearly an extremist for not wanting to continue with the very non-extreme and very serious policies of extrajudicial killing, unilateral "pre-emptive" war, bases around the world, the biggest debt in history, the drug war, etc.
Where art thou debt ceiling ? Will you show your wretched face before or after the elections ?
http://journey-to-alpha.blogspot.com/2012/03/monetary-policy-case-study-south-korea.html
After. Timmy will raid retirement funds to keep Obama on the campaign trail and out of the debt ceiling negotiations conference room.
Of course, Boehner and his toadies don't want to be in that conference room either so they can go home and lie to voters like any other politician.
Maybe if they are truly hitting the ceiling too soon, they'll legislate a suspension of the daily calendar until after the election. See, that way the money doesn't run out. It will be September 30 this year all the way to Dec 31.
I remember when a $231 billion deficit was bad for a YEAR. This is seriously fucked up.
I do remember.
And it was.
And it is.
I can't wait when Obummer starts blaming Iran for all of this.
He's an employee, did you expect a thinking employee?
Here is a little tid bit that I have been preaching for 20 plus years, I'm glad to see somebody write a book on it. This is about the American way of life, not my life, but the lives of most of them. We cannot live without the Credit Card. As we MSM use it, so does our government, nobody seems to learn.
Its a great read !!!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt--the-american-way-.html;_ylt=AuAB0K19...
Dear Crash,
Don't you think that you are being far too cynical?
Have you lost complete faith in the 'American Dream'?
Perhaps, we here at ZH do not comprehend 'reality' om
you can serf in Diego Garcia..
Yeah, you would laugh at the fucktards who say Ron Paul's ideas are scary, if the reality of the shit we're in wasn't so damn sad.
"I WILL CUT THE DEFICIT IN HALF, BY THE END OF MY FIRST TERM!" Bathhouse Barry-2008
How's that HOPEY!-CHANGEY! thingy workin out for ya?
That made me chuckle, even as a non-physicist, whom I dare say, if reading, are wetting their pants. 1 up
America will borrow about 35% of spending this year. That's how the spending will be funded.
Japan will borrow 49% of spending this year. They fund spending that way. 50% borrowing.
The world is insane.
The world is not insane.
It is collapsing.
Next comes war. It always does.
Chart number 2 is really important.
We haven't had a tax cut vs last year. The payroll tax cut is unchanged. Neutral.
We've had a REDUCTION in unemployment. Where is the tax revenue from those newly employed people now at work getting paid and paying taxes?
We've had GDP growth > 0 from 2011 to 2012. Where is that growth in tax revs?
We've had population increase. Where is the growth in tax revs?
It's all bullshit. All of it. Lies from here to forever.
Central planners are like an addict or a hardened ex-con. The addict keeps using despite the health impact and the hardened ex-con tries to get back in the clink after being unable to deal with the real world. Just the same central planners keep borrowing and spending. Why?
Because they don't know any other way to live.
The difference is of course when the addict relapses or the institutionalized criminal reoffends, they (mostly) only impact themselves. The central planners will destroy the economies of the western world because they literally do not know to do anything but what they are doing. They are addicted to the conveniences of inflating the money supply, they are institutionalized by Keynesian economics, and nothing will stop them until reality finally brings it crashing down.
I wouldn't blame it all on the ChairSatan; add in democanrepublicrat Congress + entitlement groups, +corporate special interests, +govt employees in general. Might even be a little blame left over for that guy/gal U see in the mirror. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Yes.
Where is the tax revenue from those newly employed people now at work getting paid and paying taxes?
And for those who are working (me), we also are making less than we ever have. That means less money the gov't can collect from e.
Yet again, allowing corporations to keep my wages down through monetary easing is a great way to "give me a tax cut".
So not only are our taxes going UP, but my pay is not keeping up wit hinflation, never mind the interest on the debt I owe.
Didn't these motherfuckers take Ivy League mathematics courses?
Do You HaZ a PrinZter?
http://economicaldepression.blogspot.com/
Obama impeachment bill now in CongressYes but was is the "seasonally adjusted" monthly deficit???
.
Unusually warm winter means more economic activity, thus more debt/deficit.
if it's cloudy = you Sell Stocks
if it's Sunny = you Buy Stocks
The chart is saying "Inflationary default on US dollar denominated debt is coming."
Debt is money.
Spending other peoples money is Debt.
don't tell the the IMF!
we'll get troika'd!
bullish.
Errm, this is not good, right?
DavidC
Its ok, looking at CNBC, FT, WSJ, etc nobody seems to care anymore....iPad 3 is out this week right?
Here's my summary of CNBS today:
"What's important here, is I'm holding a bar of gold..tee-hee." - Bob Pisani
"Buy all banks like a raging crack whore on payday." - Dick Bove
That Pisani piece was freaking AWKWARD.
It shows that gold in NOT for everyone. There's something about Bob holding a 400 0z "London Jerky" gold bar that sends an oh HELL NO! shock-vibe through the body.
I'll worry when they send Maria with a helmut down a mine shaft. Pisani?? aw na, na, na, no no noooooooooooooooo.... Might as well be a hit piece on gold.
Update: Pisani just let Maria hold the bar.
DUMP IT ALL BITCHEZ!!!
Time for another load of freeze dried... Won't be long now. They can't and don't want it stopped. They want it to collapse to take complete control of everyone.
From whom?
Have no fear!!! Just as soon as those lazy fuckers start applying for McJobs all will be well!!!
/sarc
They need a collapse to lower oil prices and wipe out some debt then prime the system with some more ben bersneaky money.
Clearly we need to raise taxes on those who produce, which is to say, the smallest piece of the revenue pie.
In other words, those who create wealth need to step it up---the leeches demand their checks!
there is no fixing this system
Just bought more ammo this morning. Good timing I guess.
Who were you planning to shoot?
it's the "not planning to shoot" list you want to strive for. The other list you mentioned isn't as important then.
Juuuuust what the Keynesian squared voodoo doctors ordered. Satisfaction guaranteed! Lol!
Speaking of tax refunds, has anyone else's refund check from the IRS taken longer than usual to arrive?
yes, agree. Mine says delayed till april 17.
We were suppose to get ours in Nov from 2010........ haven't seen it yet
Speaking of tax refunds
Why are you lending the Federal Gov't your money?
Because I'm too lazy to change my W-4/.
I'm supposed to get my refund tomorrow. I'll wait and see...
Has been postponed to 3/20... fun times!
That's not my debt, that's the criminal bankers debt
Thats "not your debt" but you will pay it and you will like pay it and you will like paying it,understand....?
Krugman will tell you we aren't borrowing enough.
That's why I laugh when I see this chart touted by the Obama administration, will surely be a favorite come election time:
http://www.pensitoreview.com/Wordpress/wp-content/themes/mimbo2.2/images/graph-863k-jobs-created-09-101.jpg
And manipulation aside, say they actually "created" jobs. How many were livable wage jobs with benefits? ($50k+)
I'd glady pay you with my grandkids earnings for a cheeseburger today.
Now,if the USA could stop paying the 500 billion or so a year in interest payments to the snakes,they might start getting ahead.
Right after chopping the budget for the 700 military bases...in 130 countries....lol,.....
'Deficits don't matter." Dick Cheney
Yeah we get it how many times are you going to post that? Last time I checked Dick Cheney wasn't in power any longer.
The Roman's had deficit expenditures comparable to us today. History says that didn't work out too well. Deficits were around long before Cheny. After, im not so sure.
Whenever I feel it is pertinent to the subject matter. You're not the only one reading, but thanks for reminding me.
Context matters. Look into it.
Look, he just admitted it is what he's got.. So let him off the hook about the context and shit it's all the guys got, he posts it over and over if he understood the context of it, what would he post? jeez.. By the way who is that ? Flucked?
Thats what you Think......
"Dick Cheney don't matter". Deficits.
And those are in nominal USDs. I think the USD is down over 16% the last 3 years.
And those are in nominal USDs. I think the USD is down over 16% the last 3 years.
Bullish. Small business will use the tax savings to employ millions of Americans.
· Explaining the claims drop? Department of labor total expenditures down to 66B fiscal YTD vs. 113B year ago. Almost entirely driven by the reduction in payments to the unemployment trust fund 19B vs. 53B year ago.
Holy shit. Why didn't we think of that?
That's how to get new unemployment claims down! Just don't fund them. If they aren't funded, they aren't official new claims.
A few unicorns and some pixie dust will fix all this shit.
just blame it on leap year
I wonder how much gas prices are supporting those figures?? Hmmm.
Tax revenue is coming from somewhere. Not coming from Gold. Not coming from JOB'S. Hmm. Where is it coming from?? Last time gas was this high, they said demand and supply.
OK, so there is no demand here, or hardly anywhere right now. But, gas is still 4$.
Oh, NOW, it's the new normal.. Right, just the thought of FUTURE demand is enough to keep oil high, right. Six month's ago it was Lybia, right.
Any lights coming on??
FYI Libya is up to about 400K bpd less than pre revolution output.
Of course, China is driving about 15 million more cars now burning oil than they did before Libya's revolution.
There is no fix for this. There is not enough oil flow. There can't be enough oil flow.
Billions have to die to fix this. Soon.
damn, man. That's a poopy choice...
Soon = next 50-75 years.. Men, take some killing, not that easy..
Pandemic
would someone in Congress care to bring these charts to the chaisatan the next time he shows up in front of them stammering bs.
New currency for those that can't get gold or silver
It’s a dirty job: Police nationwide take on soaring Tide detergent theft
Tide has become a form of currency on the streets. The retail price is steadily high — roughly $10 to $20 a bottle — and it’s a staple in households across socioeconomic classes.
Tide can go for $5 to $10 a bottle on the black market, authorities say. Enterprising laundry soap peddlers even resell bottles to stores.
http://www.thedaily.com/page/2012/03/12/031212-news-tide-theft-1-4/
The soap-making business is the place to be.
Yes! Plump banksters and hickory ashes and we'll have the finest, smoothest soap on the market.
Do they deliver like Amway® distributors?
whats with the news about GS to make profits in bonds?
Flatline!
$trillion deficits came out of nowhere but appear to be here to stay. In 2008, a record debt of <$500billion was recorded. Granted, records are made to be broken, but normally in small incremental steps, not by multiples.
The 2009 deficit was, what, $1.5trillion, or triple the previous record debt. And, each year since 09 the deficit has been >$1trillion. I would not have thought that level of debt could be sustained this long.
...the fed funds the deficit by printing.It will now do so until collapse (which might be years away). At that point they will also own alot of gold , silver, real estate etc etc and pretty much every stock. Then they reset to a new currency and are the new global monarchs. You cannot fight monopolists in money creation whilst the societal paradigm continues that cash has purchasing value retention (or has substantiation...it doesn't under CB's meglomania). Oil prices will stop them I hear you say? Political pressure will force them to stop? Maybe, but I doubt it. The general society (sheeple, Joe 6pack etc) just do not understand enough about credit/money/inflation etc. Sad really. Me? I live in New Zealand on a 10 acre block of farm land near a beautiful coast. I can see where all this ends. Have got gold (and yes, guns, but they are for rabbit control...lol)
My brother lives on the south island with a simliar spread. If you think the "average" person in New Zealand isn't a bloody sheep, you have not been paying attention. I visit him often. Lots of sheep on the government tit in New Zealand. However, my brother's only real concern is the proximity to China and the lack of a real military. Good luck, because when the big power shift occurs, the elite will take what they fucking want. Time for you to get some like-minded, trustworthy neighbors. Your government is setting you up for failure. I have looked into investing capital in New Zealand and extending an operation there. For every one productive person I employ, they want me to support ten unproductive people, fuck that. Capital and productive labor always goes where it is welcome, always. Going to be a real bitch went that is Mars.
You have nicely laid out the reasons that made me refrain from attempting immigration to New Zealand.
Very subtle hint, China already owns most of Autrialia. Sorry, should have made that clear.
The proximity to China? I haven't measured, but if that's near, then Alaska isn't far either
Is that you, Dotcom?
What's that word again? Oh yeah, how sustainable is this? I guess the rich will be building their own sewers, streets, and schools. Moreover, I guess they plan to hire there own firefighters and security officers. Will they be arming and paying their own armies too?
Fucking bring it.
Not only is this a nice depiction of a transition from random to systemic, but it's notable that the nine largest monthly deficits in history have all occurred in the last ~26 months.
(And 9 in 26 = .346, which will win you the batting title most years)
Geezus Tyler, you "rack" up debt, you don't "rake" it.
Damn man, there goes a chick with a nice rake. It just doesn't hold any special meaning for me. I mean normally I wouldn't bust yer balls 'cause I like youse guys, but you did use the word in the title...
...well, it was a 'leap' year month...
Tax revenues are quaint relics.
Like Gold? Just saying, is this tradition or not?
And the markets just do not give a shit. Carry on. Beyond words.
And just to confirm, there goes AAPL.
The problem is that investors know this shit is just a fraud, but they make money and they like it... (untill reality hits)
Everytime i see charts like these i have to wonder, about those who have college degrees, a nice house, car, savings plans and debt they seem to manage.
I see them all the time out my window on the golf course or walking their dogs. Why havent they run screaming from the building, in wild eyed panic.
Why haven't the accountants with thier personal funds pulled them and flooded into gold/silver or at least screamed their bloody head off in panic.
Its like seeing a small child on the railroad tracks telling the other playing children that a train is coming in a soft whisper.
Who will scream first "run"?
Someone is going to have to cause a panic, the train is coming.
The best thing to do is have a negative interest rate on the national debt until we can get past this bump. Have the Federal Reserve and Chinese pay 5% per year to hold the treasuries for the next 10 years at which point they'll be compensated for the negative interest. That will provide liquidity while keeping inflation down.
Depresions are fun so lets spread the joy to the world paying the US 5% of the US treasury's they bought.
Or just buy them all back at par, with money we would have to print.
Does that also mean that we would in turn have to pay the banks to hold our money? I mean almost zero interest is bullshit enough but to pay the bank interest on my own money????
Only if your bank buys treasury bonds. Then, it'd also be tax deductable for the bank customers if they lose over a certain amount.
So I just googled Debt ceiling and a few variations like current debt ceiling etc... Every article I click on from that point says error 404 or can't find page. My computer is working fine. Can someone else confirm this?
The problem is on your end or with your provider.
Something serious should have taken place, so that the “Superpower" owes 14.5 trillion dollars. Such a "broke superpower" has never been before. The world has never seen before "World rulers" who surrender to pain because cancer medication costs. World rulers, who, when they lose their jobs, go straight to the “garbage”, have never existed not even in the years of Genghis Khan. There should be a problem somewhere and that’s what we are seeking. It’s not possible for someone to eat night and day and to risk dying of malnutrition. It is obviously that this person is severely “ill" and that’s what threatens him with death. This is the case in USA. They take advantage the resources of the whole planet and they have “managed" to be threatened today with bankruptcy. They are doing something wrong. Something is wrong in their “organism”. Some internal "cancerous" agent "sucks" all their inflow and lets them crawl to "death".
Global Debt Crisis
http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/01/global-debt-crisis.html
World War III - The first private War in history
http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/02/world-war-iii.html
Authored by Panagiotis TRAIANOU.
The cancer is incurable. The patient is terminally ill. Stage 4 with a few more weeks, months maybe. Spreading to other parts of the world quickly.
Default would have to be global. Greece is setting the precedent - again. Greece gave birth to democracy and Greece gave birth to the collapse of the banking system, quite literally the end of the world as we knew it.
The Greek debt default has historical magnitude like no other default before it. Few minds can figure this out and comprehend just what exactly happened and just how important it will be going forward.
Biblical, even to non-believers.
I can only agree with you.
History shall repeat itself in a far greater scale and therefore the benefit for the leading roles shall be much greater. If ancient Greeks won the battle against the barbarity of the East in favour of Europe, then modern Greeks are those who are meant to win the battle against the barbarity of both Eastern and Western world in favour of the human kind. The world has become a little “village” and in this “village” everyone knows what the character of the others is.
I think you will also like to read this article
http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/02/germany-disgrace-of-europe.html
.
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/uploads/image1555.jpg
http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/mts0212.pdf
The beast is about to get hungry...very hungry. Alot of people are about to get their naive asses knocked for a loop about just how unfriendly this government can be and how much they really don't give a shit about anyone or anything but self-preservation.
People should start getting ready for great trials ...for International Courts, where the current loan sharks shall give account. Monetarism criminals should sit on the same benches that once sat Nazi criminals. Rothschild, Rockefeller, Greenspan, Bernanke, Trichet, Soros, Buffett –and other “kids” of the loan sharking- should not sleep calmly from this point on. So, should also do their Quisling-type partners ...all the traitors who undertook power supported by the Monetarists and exercised leadership at the expense of their people ...Merkel, Sarkozy, Barroso, Zapatero, Papandreou and others.
The world is getting “awake” from “narcosis” and pity to the one who shall be found to have made the wrong at the wrong time ...pity to the one who “sedated” them to “rape” them ...pity to the one who shall be found holding the criminal “tube” ...pity to the one who threatened the future of the human kind.
http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/01/global-debt-crisis.html
By Panagiotis TRAIANOU
Every chart shows the economic freight train going off the rails, through an oil depot, into a crowded stadium and exploding. The only question is when.
We used to think cutting taxes would “starve the beast”, but what has happened is the Federal Reserve is now printing up Monopoly money to fill the gap between government revenues and outlays. The Fed now enables deficit spending through debasemant of the dollar.
But here is the real kick in the nuts. We all naively thought that increased money supply would result in immediate hyperinflation which would limit the Fed. But what the printed money has done is to both cause inflation AND deflation, which to an extent nets out. Thus gas and food go up, but wages and home prices go down.
Biflation is possible because GDP=M*V, which has two independent variables. As M goes up you can get inflation (stock market rising) but velocity V gets crushed as everyone loses trust and hordes money. The double whammy of biflation, thus leading to a Biflationary Depression even as Obama touts green shoots.
I’ve been trying to create a Biflationary Index which cuts out all the fake Ministry of Disinformation numbers. I’ve been using Gold, the Job Participation Rate, the real rate of return (interest rate minus inflation, though the inflation number is rigged it is at least consistent), Case Shiller. I should add the tax receipts.
I’ve really written some pretty interesting stuff here. http://www.futurnamics.com/biflation.php
does it really matter whether or not I pay my taxes??
does it REALLY matter, when they can just print???
hell, i should be asking for a FULL refund!!!!!!!!!
New downtrend forming in GSR:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&p=36816#p36816
Biggest 'news' story I saw all day... wonder if old Brian Williams will talk about it on Nightly News tonight @_@
No reason to panic. I haven't written my +/- $20K tax check yet.
EconoDay has nothing but good things to say about this deficit number.
http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=451663&cust=mam&year=201...
Highlights
Improvement underway in the economy is reflected in improvement for the Treasury's budget deficit which, four months into the government' fiscal year, is running 9.4 percent below last year. Calendar shifts are playing a role in the improvement, excluding which the fiscal year-to-date deficit is running 3.3 percent below last year. The receipt side of the ledger shows mostly gains led by corporate income taxes. The outlay side shows mostly declines with the exception of net interest payments. The deficit for the month of February is $231.7 billion.
No mention of a monthly deficit record in February.
In 2001, the CBO predicted that in 2011 the US National Debt would be @ 2.5 Trillion....and those idiots are still predicting stuff and whatever???
For sure, the inmates have taken over the asylum!
we've long past the point of no return, but TPTB will not confess their crimes and high treason
@ law of physics...I am well aware of the NZ govt's ineptitude and do not trust our ex Merrill Lynch's head of global FX PM (John Key) one iota. I am insulated somewhat from their predations...but not insular.
The true meaning of HopyChange:(
the debt is growing like crazy.
http://www.cnhedge.com/
http://www.jinrongbaike.com/
So, gubmint is racking up deficit of $25 PER DAY PER MAN WMAN AND CHILD. Per day. Every day. Day after day after day. What is that, like $100 per day per productive citizen? And growing. Truly fricking nuts. Truly.
Huge and unpleasant change is coming to this country. Absolutely has to be.
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???? ????? ?????? ??????? ???? ????? ???? ????? ???? 2012 ???? 2013 ???? ????? ????? ???? ??? ???? ???? ????? ????? ???? ????? ????? 2012 ???????? ????? ????? ???????? ????? ????? 2012 ????? ????? ??? ????? ????? ??? ????? ????? ??? ????? ??? ????? ?????? ??? ???? ????? ????? ??? ???? ????? ????? ??? ????? ??? ????? ????? ??? ???? ??? ???? ??? ????? ????? ????? ????? ?????? ???? ??? ??????? ??? ??????? ????? ???? ?????