Still confused what the BOJ's shocking move was about, aside from pushing the US stock market to a new record high of course? This should explains it all: as the chart below show, as a result of the BOJ's stated intention to buy 8 trillion to 12 trillion yen ($108 billion) of Japanese government bonds per month it means the BOJ will now soak up all of the 10 trillion yen in new bonds that the Ministry of Finance sells in the market each month. In other words. The Bank of Japan’s expansion of record stimulus today may see it buy every new bond the government issues. In other words: full monetization.
"We start our Q4 GDP tracking estimate at +2.2%, eight-tenths below our prior standing forecast. The lower tracking estimate mainly reflects the larger-than-expected +0.7 percentage point contribution from defense spending to Q3 growth (which introduces risks for payback in Q4), the weaker-than-expected trajectory for consumer spending heading into the quarter apparent in today’s personal income and outlays report for September, and a slightly weaker assumption on net exports in light of the large net trade contribution in Q3, our global teams’ recent downgrades to rest-of-world growth forecasts and the recent appreciation of the US dollar." - Goldman Sachs
Not everyone's buying it...
"THE NIKKEI: BLAST OFF!: It shall be very, very hard to do, but the Nikkei is only now just breaking out to the upside and so we should buy it while selling the Yen at the same time. The “hard trade” is always the best trade and it is going to be very hard to buy this market but we have to with 24-25 thousand as a target."
Now that The Fed is (however briefly) out of the money-printing business, it appears to have turned its attention to the rest of the world's "despicable monetary policy" actions and fired what seems to be the first warning shot of 'currency wars 2.0', as MarketNews reports:
ECB SOURCE SAY EUR3 BILLION BALANCE SHEET TARGET NOT IN THE CARDS: MNI
ECB SOURCE FED HAS NOTICED EUR SLIDE AND ECB MUST NOT PUSH TOO FAR: MNI
One wonders how long before Jack Lew also proclaims Japan a 'currency manipulator' (and, gasp, the Eurozone) especially after Germany's Wolfgang Schaeuble reminded the world this morning that "growth can't be helped by printing money." You don't say...
The question of "recovery" really boils down to this: how much longer can the increasing debt of the bottom 90% and the wealth of the top 10% prop up the expansion?
The lone dissenting dove at this week's 'end-of-QE' FOMC meeting has taken digital pen to pixelated paper to explain why moar is better and the Fed should not stop printing..."Of course, there are costs and benefits to every monetary policy action and inaction, and assessing those costs and benefits is by no means straightforward. On this occasion, my assessment differed from that of my colleagues," as he believes the inflation outlook has worsened. As a reminder, Kocherlakota was the 'gentleman' who fired dissenting economists at the Minneapolis Fed for disgreeing with his Neo-Keynesian philosophy.
The final UMich consumer confidence print (after preliminary 86.4) is higher again at 86.9 - the highest since July 2007. Ofcourse hope rose - future expectations up from 75.4 to 79.6) while current situation dropped (98.9 to 98.3)... as we all know escape velocity and wage gains (despite tumbling spending and slowing income in reality).
Despite plunging consumer spending, Chicago PMI surged to 66.2 (against expectations of 60.0), its highest in 12 months. This is above even the highest economist estimate and is a 4-sigma beat... having been at one-year lows just 3 months ago.
Bwuahahahaha... Nikkei futures halted limit up - over 1100 points post-BoJ (+1400 post-FOMC) as USDJPY tops 112 (up 4 handles post-FOMC) to its highest since Jan 2008.
If yesterday's Citi debacle was a buying opportunity (which it is according to the pre-market), then news that Ally Financial (formerly GMAC) is under regulatory and DoJ investigation must be great news:
*ALLY CITES REQUEST FROM SEC ON SUBPRIME AUTO FINANCE PROBE & MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES; REQUESTS INCLUDE SUBPOENAS FROM DOJ
Of course, do not forget that GM itself recently admitted to the DoJ probing its subprime auto loan underwriting practices. But, but, but - isn't this exactly what FHFA's Mel Watt wants?