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Guest Post: The Tiresome Eurozone Soap Opera Has Entered Re-Runs





What's more tiresome than a hastily rehearsed soap opera that replays the same boring plots again and again? Re-Runs of that soap opera. The Eurozone "drama" is now in re-runs and I for one am switching channels. Nothing will change until some critical part of the worm-eaten, corrupt construct of artifice and denial collapses in a heap. Until then, all we have is replays of the same boring plot lines:

Put-upon Greece: We were just minding our business here in the sunny south, living happily on borrowed billions in a thoroughly corrupt Status Quo, and suddenly we're debt-serfs squeezed by rapacious Eurozone enforcers of the banking cartel. What did we do to deserve this? It's not fair.

Put-upon Germany: We were just minding the store here, racking up 40% of our GDP in exports and raking in bank profits loaning money to our Eurozone compatriots, when suddenly everyone who's lived beyond their means demands that we refinance their debts because we're rich. Excuse us, but did anyone look at how we got rich? Hard work, cuts in spending, high taxes and a tight lid on wages. What did we do to deserve this? It's not fair.

Married couple in counseling: France and Germany: It's all his/her fault. They never bothered to understand me, etc.

 
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SocGen's Take On The Greek Elections And What Happens Next





"MARKET ISSUES: Greek euro exit fears are likely to ease for now, but even in this best case outcome, Greece will continue to struggle to meet programme targets and renegotiation with a possible third programme for Greece will soon have to be addressed. Moreover, this does not solve the fundamental issues weighing on Spain and Italy."

 
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And Now... Let's Play Chicken





It is "no government" in Greece for the moment, playing chicken over the bailout terms, playing chicken over new money for Greece as their economy continues to deteriorate and as they amount they owe now, much less any new money, cannot be paid back under any scenario that anyone can concoct. The headlines may well drive the markets' reaction briefly but "watch out below" will be what takes hold as it must because that assumption is based upon facts and not hype.

 
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As Syriza Concedes Defeat, EURUSD Forgets To Soar - Is A Spanish "Bail Out" Market Response In The Works?





In a perilous replay of the Spanish bank "bailout", the proxy for bailout sentiment, the EURUSD pair, was up 61 pips to just under 1.2700... and that's it. Naturally, if the world suddenly thought Europe was "fixed", Spain notwithstanding, one would imagine the reaction by the FX market would be just a little more invigorated than merely confirming that what is playing out (namely the lack of a definitive Greek government) has already been priced in. And yet here we are...

 
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The Definitive Visual Greek Election Tracker





Ignore the media spin of sampling error as definitive confirmation of this or that (because a 1% difference in exit poll terms is well within a 3% error sampling distribution, where a plurality lead incidentally gives the winner an automatic 50 seats), and follow the results for yourself as they come streaming in. Full visual real-time update below.

 
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Pasok Throws A Monkey Wrench Into Coalition Discussions





As reported in the previous post, the Greek PASOK party of former PM G-Pap may have thrown a grenade into coalition discussion, following an announcement by Katerina Diamantopoulou that Pasok will not join into a coalition government with ND unless Syriza also joins said coalition. Which Syriza stated moments ago it would not do. The question then comes whether ND can form a government (150+ seats) with any of the other remaining parties (up to and including neo-nazi New Dawn or the communists... why is there no Pirate party in Greece?). The answer is most likely not, but not before some serious horse trading shows that the second Greek elections has achieved nothing, and the world now has to look forward to a 3rd Greek election round, some time in August, and then another, and then another, until no more assets are left to be plundered from the state which will have no head for a long time. Incidentally, just as we predicted on May 3 in "Previewing The First Of Many Greek Elections"

 
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French Socialists Win An Absolute Majority In Parliament





While everyone is focusing on Greece, we have news from France:

  • FRENCH SOCIALISTS WIN ABSOLUTE MAJORITY IN PARLIAMENT, CSA SAYS
  • FRENCH SOCIALISTS WON 320 SEATS, CSA SAYS; MAJORITY IS 289
  • FRENCH SOCIALISTS WON'T NEED TO RELY ON LEFT FRONT, GREENS: CSA

So... does that mean that the recently reduced minimum retirement age wil be cut again, thank you Germany?

 
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2nd Greek Exit Poll Remains Balanced As Elderly Bias For New Democracy Pushes Them Into Slight Lead





While the burning of a ballot box in Exharia, Athens remains the most unrest among the civilians we have seen so far (in which 2 policemen were injured), the second exit poll results are in and New Domcracy has a modest lead:

  •     *GREECE'S NEW DEMOCRACY GETS 28.6% - 30%   IN EXIT POLL: NET
  •     *GREECE'S SYRIZA GETS 27.5% - 28.4% IN EXIT POLL, NET SAYS
  •     *GREECE'S PASOK PARTY HAS 11% - 12.4% IN EXIT POLL, NET SAYS
  •     *INDEPENDENT GREEKS GETS 6.8% TO 7.8% IN EXIT POLL, NET SAYS
  •     *GREECE'S GOLDEN DAWN GETS 6.5% TO 7.1% IN EXIT POLL, NET SAYS
  •     *GREEK COMMUNIST PARTY GETS 4.8% - 5.6% IN EXIT POLL, NET SAYS

As a reminder (here and here), "The outcome will be too close to call if the difference between the first two parties is less than 2%-3% with strong precedent of exit polls failing to predict the outcome when the race is tight."

In the meantime, a friendly reminder from the Germans:

  •     *GERMANY'S WESTERWELLE SAYS GREEK PACKAGE CAN'T BE NEGOTIATED

 

 
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First Greek Exit Poll Shows Dead Heat Between Syriza And New Democracy





The long-anticipated first Greek exit poll is out. The results, per Greek Mega TV, are as follows:

  • New Democracy 27.5-30.5,
  • SYRIZA 27-30,
  • PASOK 10-12,
  • Ind Gr 6-7.5,
  • Golden Dawn 6-7.5,
  • Dem Left 5.5-6.5,
  • KKE 5-6

In a word: very much indefinite, as the leader will get the bonus of 50 parliamentary seats, which makes any conclusive calculus impossible for now.

 
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Greek Election Cheat Sheet





All you need to know about today's prime time event.

 
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In The Case Of The World Vs Merkel, The Broke Prosecution Proposes Eurobonds Lite





The battle fronts have been drawn out: it is literally the world against Germany.

 
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What Is Going Through The Heads Of Greek Executives Right Now





With mere hours left until the first Greek exit polls are released, one group of the Greek population, perhaps the most important one if the country of 23% unemployment is to have any hope of not sinking into the Mediterranean, its business executives, has yet to express its opinion on the aftermath of today's election. And while we know that many local businesses have already transferred their money (whether or not taxed is a different question) abroad, it is after all they that will serve as the backbone of any possible future Greek renaissance, whether EUR or XGD denominated. So do they think? Recently Citigroup's European team met with executives from big Greek / Cyprus banks and several officials - independent parties. The key message is that the situation is critical but there is some optimism on the Day after the elections.

 
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Guest Post: Will Tsipras Blow Up Europe?





For Greece, this is an important election. Inside the euro, their heavily state-dependent economy will continue to suffer scathing austerity. Outside the euro, they can freely debase, and — as Nigel Farage has noted — enjoy the benefits of a cheaper currency like renewed tourism and more competitive industry. If Greeks want growth sooner rather than much later, they should choose life outside the euro (and by voting for Tsipras and trying tough negotiating tactics, they will be asking to be thrown out). But for the rest of the world, and the rest of Europe, this is all meaningless. As Ron Paul has noted, when the banking institutions need the money, central banks — whether it’s the ECB, or the Fed, or the BoE, or a new global central superbank — will print and print and print. Whether Greece is in or out, when the time comes to save the financial system the central bankers will print. That is the nature of fiat money, as much as the chickenhawks at the ECB might pretend to have hard-money credentials. Tsipras, though — as a young hard-leftist — would be a good scapegoat for throwing Greece out of the Eurozone (something that — in truth — the core seems to want).

 
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Deutsche Bank: "The Spanish Recapitalization Is Not Working" - A Market Shock Is Required





This weekend, everyone's attention will be on the Greek elections, however it is Spain that has now become the "fulcrum security" of Europe. As such, events in Greece are merely a catalyst that will set off a chain of events that will have an impact not only on Spain, but on all of Europe, and thus, the world. As we pointed out last week after the Spanish bailout announcement, based on a preliminary analysis which had been compiled by Deutsche Bank's europhiles hours before the formal announcement, and one which just happened to be a carbon-copy of what was proposed as the 'final (and failed) Spanish solution', it appears that the events in Europe are if not orchestrated by the largest German bank, then certainly receiving part-time advice. Which brings us to the present, where we find that even Deutsche Bank has given up hope for interim solutions, having realized that the market will no longer accept transitory, feeble arrangements. Instead DB is now formally calling for a big bang resolution, one coming from the ECB. Here is the punchline: "ECB has room for manoeuvre, but needs political cover for a ‘big’ policy" or said otherwise, "A shock is required to get a liquidity response." In other words: Europe's only real hope for even a stop gap solution... is a wholesale market crash, not surprisingly the very same conclusion that Citi reached on May 19 when they warned that only Crossover (XO) at 1000 bps or wider could push Europe into acting... Basically stated, anything less than a controlled market crash, one that finally gets the ECB involved with Germany's persmission of course, merely pushes the market higher on nothing but hope of an intervention that said market lift makes even more improbable, as now both Citi and DB admit, which can and will lead to an uncontrolled market collapse, one from which not even the ECB will be able to extricate Europe.

 
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As Greek Banks Run Out Of Safe Deposit Boxes, An Eerie Calm Takes Over The Country 24 Hours Before D-Day





The most ironic moment in the Greek denouement will come when fractional reserve lending collapses onto itself:

"Stavropoulos and her friends have a new strategy to deal with their daily expenses. "We charge everything to our credit cards," she says. If the Greek banks fail, they won't be able to collect the outstanding debts, she argues. "If they want to mess me around, I will do the same to them."

In other words, Greece is now America, where the vast majority of people also live on credit alone, and have taken up the following motto when dealing with banks: "you pretend to be solvent, we pretend to have money." At the end of the day, it is all just one big global monetary circle jerk, only this time in reverse, as the snake of fractional reserve banking has finally started to eat its own tail. With people spending money they don't have, and in debt to their eyeballs to a banking system that itself is just as insolvent, is there any wonder that nobody really panics any more over daily threats the grand reset is finally coming?

 
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