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Think You Bought (Or Sold) FaceBook? Think Again

If you just submitted an order to buy FB today, and were confident the order was executed even if at market, you may be out of luck:


What this means is that the exchange at this point is deciding whether or not to send back late executions to all people who bought, or thought they bought. Needless to say this means that the indicated price is likely not the real price if one factors for all the latent orders, on both the bid and offer side, unless of course all those orders get cancelled, further eroding confident in the market, only this time hitting that one segment most disenchanted with the stock market - mom and pop.

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RANsquawk Weekly Wrap – 18/05/12

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Facebook Plunges From Opening Print, At IPO Price... For Now

$38.00 Syndicate bid holding...high was $45.00 - 200mm shares traded

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Fadebook Opens For Trading At $42.05 As Europe Closes

UPDATE: $40 handle broke - $38.3!!

UPDATE: Algos defending $40.00 desparately! 115mm shares

From the $38 IPO price, we open at $42.05 (now at $40.1) but we note that in Germany it has tumbled from well over EUR90 earlier. We get the sense the media is disappointed, but of course they will be talking longer-term now and defending a weaker-than-expected open: CNBC: "I just want to make sure we don't whip ourselves into a frenzy on the short term value." - perhaps a little late for that eh?

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26 Minutes In And... Still Nothing

Yes, we are all waiting for what is increasingly becoming an epic disaster. In the meantime there is this:


We believe CANCELING is the operative word. Of course, Europe is about to close which according to some may be the catalyst. In other news, nobody even dare think, let alone whipser "Market Conditions"

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Gross On Facebook: "I Know A Bubble When I See One"

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FaceBook Indicative Open: $45

Update: $42, $43.25, $45, $44

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MS/Citi/JPM All Red YTD

Presented with little comment as JPMorgan, Citi, and Morgan Stanley (and JEF) are now down year-to-date (after being up 35-40% just a few weeks ago) and catching up to the credit reality that we have been so vociferous about...

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Will The European Union Destroy Itself Just To Save The Euro?

David McWilliams (of Punk Economics) begins his latest excellent discussion by conjuring Clint Eastwood and noting that when it comes to the Fiscal Compact in Europe "they are pissing down our backs and telling us that it is raining". The Fiscal Compact will NOT strengthen the Euro but in fact by cementing the austerity agenda into law it will make the political environment even more unstable. The Irishman goes on to discuss why Europe is imploding as he insightfully notes that "financial panics do not cause the destruction of wealth, financial panics merely tell you the extent to which wealth has been destroyed by reckless speculation". The realization that current account deficits and not budget deficits were always the problem in Europe which leaves the fiscal compact akin to a doctor prescribing chemotherapy for heart disease. McWilliams explains why France has seen such a change and why the fiscal compact has nothing to do with the Euro but is all about reassuring the German electorate that they will be protected from the consequences of a monetary union that they were bounced into in the nineties; as they are terrified of 'Peripheraid' - the constant drip-drip feeding of German cash to the periphery. Critically, driving to his final discussion of how the Irish should vote on the referendum - remembering that the German elites want a Federal Republic of Europe and that the entire union is in the midst of a massive negotiation - he lays out in cartoon simplicity why Germany is stuck with a massive personal interest in 'cleaning up the EU neighborhood'. Ireland should not give up cheaply in the referendum 'poker match' as all nations try and figure out who the sucker at the table is. Must-watch clip to comprehend the 'game' occurring in Europe and how it is changing very recently.

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Why Stability Stalwart Singapore Should Be Seriously Scared If The Feta Is Truly Accompli

We have discussed the probability (around 50%) and possibility of a Greek exit from the Euro ad nauseum; how the post-election anti-austerity rage is bringing the world to a new realization that this is probable not possible and the widespread risk aversion of this event is much more of a global event than local - no matter how many times you are told how small Greece is. Critically, as BofAML notes, it is the systemic threat of an untamed banking and sovereign crisis in Europe which makes multiple-sigma events less 'tail' and more 'normal'. With money due to run out at the latest by July, new elections mid-June (that show massive support for the anti-bailout party), and the impacts on the real economy, exchange rate and inflation fears, and default and ECB balance sheet implications; it seems there are also strong incentives to keep Greece in. However, there is a political line of compromise and austerity that will be hard to cross for both parties which, if it failed - and it doesn't have much time - would mean a very fast 'ring-fencing' would need to occur for this not to thermonuclear with the three main channels of volatility transmission to the rest of the world being: banking and finance, trade, and confidence - all three of which are active already with Asian trade (and banking exposure) seemingly under-appreciated in our view with Singapore dramatically exposed with a stunning 60%-plus of GDP tied up in European bank claims.

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FaceBook Pulls Reverse BATS - Flash Smashes To €50,000/Share

Sigh: FaceBook's market cap briefly passed $100 trillion. How long until a loaf of bread does the same thing?

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Facebook European Premarket Bid - €58

If this screen from Bloomberg is correct, people are far dumber than even we thought, because this implies that FB will have an over $200 billion market cap at the open all else equal.

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As The Chinese Car "Channel Stuffing" Bubble Pops, "Debilitating Price Cuts" Arrive

The fact that GM's "stunning" car sales have been in no small part driven exclusively by its eagerness to stuff dealers with unsold inventory, aka channel stuffing, is well known to Zero Hedge readers - we have been covering the subject for over a year now. What we did not know, yet what in retrospect is so glaringly obvious, is that the GM ploy of fooling the dumbest sellside analysts and investors all the time has now gone global. And while channel stuffing may have worked for a while, it is now starting to bite back. Bloomberg reports: "Chinese dealers are struggling with the rising number of unsold cars that’s threatening to deepen price cuts, according to the nation’s biggest automobile dealers’ association. Dealerships for Honda Motor Co., Chery Automobile Co., BYD Co. and Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. carried more than 45 days of inventory as of the end of April, exceeding the threshold that foreshadows debilitating price cuts, Su Hui, vice president of the auto market division at the state-backed China Automobile Dealers Association, said in an interview yesterday.  Unsold cars are crowding dealer lots in cities from Guangzhou in the south to Xi’an to the west,” Su said in a phone interview yesterday from Beijing. “It’s like a contagious disease that will spread." Wait, so Channel Stuffing is... bad? And if 45 days of inventory "foreshadows debilitating price cuts", then what should GM with its 86 days of full vehicle days supply in the US say?

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Europe Is Knock, Knock, Knocking On Chairman's Door

In the middle of the European crisis last fall, EUR-USD cross-currency basis swap spreads were on the tip of every trader and media-personality's tongue as the critical means for providing banks with access to short-term USD liquidity was ratcheting lower and lower. This means the European banks were willing to pay a higher and higher premium to be able to offload their EUR funding into USD funding. With LTRO funding now faded and perception of the sustainability of European banks becoming dismal, US banks are charging ever higher rates for Eurozone banks to borrow. What is more worrisome is that with the relative liquidity of USD assets, it would appear that the widening in the basis swap spread means the European banks have run dry of money-good USD collateral to unwind. This repricing of USD liquidity costs (now at 4 month highs and increasing rapidly) suggests that the Fed-provided swap lines could get a fresh calling to save the day and/or just as we have noted so many times in the past, the collateral squeeze continues to be the critical part of Europe's demise (and thus negates anything but absolute monetization by the ECB as a solution for the banking system).

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