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Goldman Warns Over-Supply Means Oil Prices Will Be Much Lower





In an effort to to disentangle demand from supply shifts, Goldman explores the drivers of the sharp drop in oil prices since last summer. They find that the vast majority of the decline in oil prices until November 2014 was driven by perceptions of improved supply. The continued sell-off in December and January was driven by perceptions of both improving supply and slowing demand. The latest rebound in oil--which started in late January--appears to be driven by a mix of demand and supply. However, Goldman concludes the new equilibrium price of oil will likely be much lower than over the past decade.

 
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Texas: Separating Fact From Fed Fiction





Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher proclaimed that he and some esteemed colleagues in the business community believe the collapse in oil prices is a net positive for Texas, while "we will lose about 150,000 [oil-based] jobs, but we will pick them up elsewhere since we are a consumer society," and low oil prices is good for everyone... so far he is absolutely wrong!

 
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Dismantling Krugman's "Debt Doesn't Matter" Mantra





With the global economy sinking, and worries about it beginning to resound beyond just inconvenient bears, Paul Krugman has been leading the critique against what he sees is a disastrous and ignorant deformation against debt. Krugman is trying to argue that because government debt did not hinder private wealth creation we should use government debt to create private wealth. The cart is not even before the horse using this “logic”, as the cart and horse aren’t even on the same road. Paper wealth isn’t wealth, and government debt isn’t “free money.” There are consequences to both which their proponents never include in the “prospectus.”

 
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Meet The "AAPL Trading Guru" Who Blew Through 99% Of His AUM, Ending With Just $32,362.84





Roger Bliss runs Roger Bliss and Associates Equities, LLC, which is supposedly an "investment club" and has had tremendous success day-trading Apple stock, achieving annual returns for his investors of between 100 to 300%. Bliss tells investors he has never had a trading day in which he has lost money in the past six years. Bliss claims to be managing in excess of$300 million of which approximately $260 million is his own equity in the fund. Bliss also claims there is no risk for investors as he indemnifies them against the loss of their principal. There is only one problem: it is all nothing but one non-stop, epic lie.

 
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"New" Patriotism Explained (In 1 Simple Cartoon)





...and don't be cynical either...

 
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Will China's Currency Peg Be The Next To Fall?





A pegged currency rises and falls against other currencies along with the underlying currency. Now that the USD has gained 16% in less than a year, that rise is dragging the RMB higher with it, making China's goods less competitive in markets outside the U.S. (and countries which use the USD as their currency). This major move has prompted Chinese authorities to widen the peg's range to allow the RMB to weaken slightly against the dollar. Japan's stunning devaluation of the yen has prompted much speculation that China will be forced to either end the peg to the USD or loosen the peg to match the depreciation of the yen.
 
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Ron Paul: Ukraine Coup Planned By Nato And EU





As Ron Paul recently exclaimed, the war propagandists are very active and are winning over the support of many unsuspecting American citizens. So we thought the followingg 90 seconds of 'pure Paul' would provide a refreshingly different perspective as he explains, "I'm not pro-Russia, I'm not pro-Putin, I'm pro-facts." And with the US government having no more credibility in telling us the truth about the facts that require us to expand our military presence in this region - and many others - than Brian William; perhaps it is time to listen.

 
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Reasons To Believe Are Wearing Thin: The Benefit Of The Doubt Is Cracking





Reasons to believe are wearing thin these days. Little by little, humanity’s blind devotion to authority is cracking. Someday, it will break apart.

 

 
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Greek Government "Not Holding Out Much Hope" For Monday Even As Market Signals Deal Imminent





According to Kathimerini, late last night, Greek PM Tsipras chaired a meeting of his cabinet on Friday night to brief ministers on the state of talks with the eurozone. "With the possibility of the government having to make a compromise with the eurozone over the way forward in the next few days, Tsipras was eager to assess the mood of his cabinet. Some members, such as Energy Minister Panayiotis Lafazanis have been adamant that the government should stick to its pre-election pledges." Which probably suggests that Greece is if not about to fold, then certainly cave on most, if not all, of its demands. Still, Greece is hopeful that some deus ex machina will appear in the last minute, and that delaying the inevitable will give it some further leverage. Which explains why, as Kathimerini reported, "the government is not holding out much hope for a solution in Brussels on Monday.

 
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The Untold Story Of A Ukrainian Sniper Who Took Part In The Maidan Massacre





In order to preserve the western narrative that the violent Ukraine coup was not one staged, massive, and very deadly false flag event, protest organisers have always denied any involvement. Which is why stories such as the one we wrote in March, which revealed that "Behind The Kiev Snipers It Was Somebody From The New Coalition" - A Stunning New Leak Released" got precisely zero traction in the western press. But now, for the first time, one man has spoken up and told the BBC a different story. 

 
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"Gaussian Demolition": Observations On Key Global Events





Bell Curves have become fatter and flatter. They may even be inverted. The term “bell curve” comes from the shape of the curve that depicts all occurrences distributed around the most-probable event. Data points in the ‘tails’ are now more frequent. Hyper-active central banks might be ensuring both a melt-up bubble and a market crash: larger ‘right-tail’ and ‘left-tail’ outcomes.

 
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Mark Spitznagel On The 'Myth' Of The Black Swan Event





The major sudden bear markets of the last decades were not dreaded “black swan” events at all. They were perfectly predictable, by economic logic alone, the same logic that says governments cannot manipulate market prices without creating distortions that will always, without exception, be counterproductive. In the next stock market crash, we will be told that the fault was some surprising economic or geopolitical shock. Let’s remind ourselves now that this will be false.

 
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Another Bubble Pops: Price Of Farmland Suffers First Annual Decline Since 1986





One of the bigger asset bubbles in recent US history has nothing to do with stock, bonds or commodities, We are talking about farmland. And yet, like all other bubbles - be they the result of retail euphoria or central bank rigging - this one too must come to a close, and as the WSJ reports, the first crack in the farmland bubble are appearing, after farmland values declined in parts of the Midwest for the first time in decades last year "reflecting a cooling in the market driven by two years of bumper crops and sharply lower grain prices, according to Federal Reserve reports on Thursday." the average price of farmland in the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s district, which includes Illinois, Iowa and other big farm states, fell 3% in 2014, marking the first annual decline since 1986, which makes farmlands the only asset class that had not seen a down year in nearly three decades!

 
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Fourth Turning: The Shadow Of Crisis Has Not Passed - Part 4





The world has begun to devolve into two distinct factions. The imperialist actions of the American Empire in the Middle East and Ukraine have pushed Russia, China, India, Brazil, and Iran closer together regarding trade deals; transacting commerce without using the USD; oil and gas pipelines; and military cooperation. Totalitarian regimes are known for using foreign threats to distract the populace from domestic suffering. As a matter of fact, all regimes use this tactic. When the global economy rips apart at the seams due to the debt saturation, world leaders will attempt to blame other countries for their dire circumstances. Foreign enemies are good for business. Ask our Nobel Peace Prize winning President. War is inevitable.

 
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ISIS Breaches US Military Advisers' Iraqi Base





Just as we warned hours ago, it appears the capture of a nearby town was not the endgame and, as The Wall Street Journal reports, A group of Islamic State militants penetrated an Iraqi air base where U.S. military advisers are training Iraqi forces, the first time attackers have gotten beyond the outer perimeter of an Iraqi base being used by American trainers.

 
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